Category: Storm Tracker

Storm briefs and active weather that restoration crews plan around.

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 17

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-17-morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest ~0100Z October 18 / 6 PM PDT Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 180100Z–181200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions are currently valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0758 UTC Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 12Z Oct 17–12Z Oct 18) holds the Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. Earlier Flash Flood Warnings and residual Flood Advisories (northern Broward / southeast Palm Beach) have expired as of ~6:45 PM EDT. Deep moisture, diurnal heating, and onshore convergence ahead of the cold front still support 2–3 inch-per-hour rates and localized urban flooding potential as cells progress south through tonight.
The developing non-tropical low / Nor’easter off the Carolina coast remains the multi-day story. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook rates formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours and low (~30 percent) through 7 days. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the East Coast regardless.
NWS High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain active in Southern California mountains and passes (easterly gusts 45–60 mph through this evening) and along the Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina (north winds 25–40 mph, gusts 45–55 mph through Monday). No new organized severe or Moderate-or-higher flood thresholds have opened.
Nothing material has moved on the severe lane. The picture remains Quiet Pulse.

Live Status

As of the Saturday afternoon desk, October 17, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 18), the national severe picture stays closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight and lists no valid convective watches. High pressure dominates much of the CONUS outside residual frontal and coastal activity.

Water remains the primary residual concern. The WPC Slight Risk holds on the Florida East Coast where the cold front is progressing south. Scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy rates and localized urban flash flooding continue through tonight into early Sunday, particularly southeast Florida metro areas from Port St. Lucie through Miami. Earlier short-fuse products have expired; residual drainage continues in poor-drainage urban areas.

The developing coastal low off the Carolinas is building the multi-day wind and coastal flood story. Onshore flow will drive periods of rain, gusty winds (locally 45–55+ mph on the Outer Banks), high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic and Outer Banks into early next week. NHC is monitoring possible subtropical development but rates the near-term chance near zero.

Hotspots

Florida East Coast: WPC Slight ERO. Localized flash flooding possible with slow-moving thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Urban streets, roads, and small streams most vulnerable through tonight.

Outer Banks and coastal North Carolina: NWS Wind Advisories (gusts 45–55 mph) through Monday. Developing Nor’easter brings coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion potential.

Southern California: Residual High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories for easterly/Santa Ana regime in mountains and passes (gusts 45–60 mph) through this evening.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 18 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (low chance). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 18): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Baja moisture plume. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. 2–3″/hr rates possible; localized urban flash flooding. No Moderate or higher. Earlier FFWs/Advisories expired.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Localized urban flooding on the Florida East Coast and wind damage potential (trees, power lines, unsecured objects) on the Outer Banks and Southern California mountains remain the near-term concerns. Coastal flooding and beach erosion will build with the Nor’easter into early next week. No widespread severe or higher-end flood event is underway.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Slight ERO on the Florida East Coast and the developing Nor’easter keep flood and coastal lanes open at lower thresholds only.

Looking Ahead One Day

Sunday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over a portion of south Florida. The coastal low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and potential flooding into early next week. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf in the near term.

Sources

Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-17-morning
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS watches and warnings summary: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:14 PM PDT on October 17, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 17 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the October 16 afternoon desk and earlier versions of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0754 PM CDT Saturday, October 17, 2026 / 0100Z October 18, valid 180100Z–181200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions are currently valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0758 UTC Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 12Z Oct 17–12Z Oct 18) holds the Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. Deep moisture, diurnal heating, and onshore convergence ahead of the cold front continue to support 2–3 inch-per-hour rates. Localized urban flash flooding remains possible through tonight; residual Flood Advisories may linger as cells progress south.
The developing non-tropical low / Nor’easter off the southeast U.S. coast remains the multi-day story. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook rates formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours and low through 7 days. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast regardless of development.
NWS High Wind Warnings continue in Southern California (Santa Ana / easterly gusts to 50–60 mph in mountains and passes through this evening). Wind Advisories and coastal flood potential persist for Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina. Nothing material has moved on the severe lane. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of this Saturday evening update to the October 17, 2026 morning desk (approximately 8:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM EDT / 0313Z October 18), the national severe picture stays closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight and lists no valid convective watches. High pressure dominates much of the CONUS outside residual frontal and coastal activity.

Water remains the primary residual concern. The WPC Slight Risk holds on the Florida East Coast where the cold front is progressing south. Scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy rates continue through tonight into early Sunday, with localized urban and street flooding possible especially in southeast Florida metro areas. Overnight LSRs show no significant severe reports.

The multi-day story is the developing coastal low / Nor’easter off the Carolinas. Potential coastal flooding, beach erosion, gusty winds, high surf, and rip currents along the Mid-Atlantic into early next week. NHC monitors for possible subtropical traits at low odds; no U.S. tropical warnings in effect.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM EDT / 0313Z 18 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (low chance). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 18): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Baja moisture plume. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. 2–3″/hr rates possible; localized urban flash flooding. No Moderate or higher. Residual Advisories after earlier FFWs.

Hotspots

Florida East Coast: WPC Slight ERO. Heavy rain rates from slow-moving thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Localized urban flooding possible through tonight, especially coastal metro areas from Port St. Lucie south through Miami.

Carolina / Mid-Atlantic coast: Developing Nor’easter. Wind Advisories, coastal flood potential, high surf, beach erosion into early next week. Outer Banks strongest winds.

Southern California: Ongoing High Wind Warnings (Santa Ana regime). Non-convective tree and power impacts possible in mountains and passes through this evening.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Slight ERO on the Florida East Coast and developing Nor’easter keep lower-threshold flood and coastal lanes open only.

Looking Ahead One Day

Sunday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over a portion of south Florida. The coastal low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and potential flooding into early next week. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf in the near term.

Sources

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (No Severe), NWS watches/warnings, WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Slight FL East Coast), NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 16.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:13 PM PDT on October 17, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 16

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with the morning desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-16-morning) and the earlier afternoon snapshot: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0750 PM CDT Friday, October 16, 2026 (0100Z October 17, valid 170100Z–171200Z) shows NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Slight Risk over the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England has ended as the strong cold front progressed offshore and associated convection weakened or moved offshore.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 686 and 687 expired earlier. As of ~0215Z October 17, SPC lists no convective watches currently valid. No mesoscale discussions are in effect for severe potential.
Preliminary local storm reports from the earlier convective day logged numerous wind damage reports (trees, wires, power lines) primarily across Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. No tornado or hail reports. Severe potential is now low.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0059Z October 17 / 8:59 PM EDT) maintains Marginal Risk only across portions of southeast Florida. Convection peaked; heavy rainfall coverage declining overnight. Localized urban flash-flood risk may continue a few hours where slow-moving cells drop 2–3 inches in an hour. No Moderate or higher. Prior West Texas Moderate closed.
Tropical lane unchanged: no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf; formation not expected next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (approaching Mexico) and remnants of Simon remain offshore Mexico only.

Live Status

As of this Friday evening update to the October 16, 2026 afternoon desk (approximately 8:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM EDT / 0315Z October 17), the severe weather lane has closed. The SPC 0100Z Day 1 outlook confirms no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast through the remainder of the night. A strong cold front has swept the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, with the low-topped convective line having weakened or moved offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may linger, but post-frontal conditions limit any severe risk.

Flood remains the only open lane at Marginal over southeast Florida, where high moisture supported earlier heavy rain rates. Coverage is declining overnight. No higher-end excessive rainfall risk is in effect. Non-convective High Wind Warnings continue in parts of southern California and Arizona for gusts to 65–75 mph in mountain passes and foothills, separate from convective threats. No tropical systems threaten U.S. land or the Gulf of America.

Hotspots

Southeast Florida residual: WPC Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Localized urban flash flooding possible for a few more hours from slow-moving cells. Convection has peaked and is weakening.

Mid-Atlantic / southern New England just-hit: Earlier Slight Risk and Watches 686/687 produced scattered damaging winds. Multiple tree and wire reports across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New England. Line has exited; residual cleanup only.

Southern California high winds: Ongoing High Wind Warnings in mountain and valley areas with gusts 50–75 mph. Non-convective; potential for tree and power impacts.

Just Hit

The organized Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk window closed this evening. SPC preliminary reports confirm wind damage (trees and wires down) across central and eastern Pennsylvania counties, Hunterdon County NJ, and portions of Massachusetts and Connecticut. No tornado or hail reports. Short-fuse warnings expired with the watches. Prior West Texas Moderate ERO and Midwest residual remain closed.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM EDT / 0315Z 17 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of America quiet; formation not expected next 7 days. Pacific systems offshore Mexico only. Hurricane Warnings limited to Mexican waters.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 17): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Slight Risk and Watches 686/687 closed. Line exited or weakened. Numerous earlier wind LSRs (trees/wires) in PA, NJ, MA, CT. No current watches.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southeast Florida only. Convection peaked; declining overnight. Localized urban risk possible briefly. No Moderate or higher. Prior West Texas Moderate closed.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. Residual work is tree and wire cleanup from the earlier Mid-Atlantic wind event across Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New England. Flood remains Marginal only in southeast Florida and does not drive a national water ticket. No tropical claims. Non-convective High Wind Warnings in California and Arizona are separate events. Standard quiet-day posture: check local NWS for any lingering Flood Advisories in Florida and assess residual damage reports. Turn around, don’t drown remains the standing public message.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. The SPC Day 1 outlook holds no severe thunderstorm areas. Flood is Marginal only over southeast Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning affects the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The earlier Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk and associated watches have closed.

Looking Ahead One Day

Saturday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida east coast. Colder air filters in behind the front, with frost and freeze potential in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast overnight into Sunday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (0100Z No Severe), expired watches 686/687, LSRs, NWS watches/warnings, WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, NHC. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic Slight — Oct 16 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:15 PM PDT on October 16, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 16 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with the afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-16-afternoon): Severe Thunderstorm Watches 686 and 687 have fully expired. SPC current watches page (updated ~0213Z October 17) lists no convective watches valid. The low-topped convective line has moved offshore; associated convection weakened.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0750 PM CDT Friday, October 16, 2026 (0100Z October 17, valid 170100Z–171200Z) shows NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Slight Risk over the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England has ended with cold-front passage.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0059 UTC October 17 / ~8:58 PM EDT Friday, valid 01Z–12Z October 17) holds only a Marginal Risk across portions of southeast Florida. Heavy rainfall coverage is declining overnight; localized urban flash-flood risk may linger a few hours. No Moderate or higher.
Tropical lane remains closed for the United States. NHC: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America; formation not expected during the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (90 mph, approaching southwestern Mexico) and remnants of Simon are offshore Mexico only. No U.S. land or Gulf threat.
Preliminary local storm reports from the convective day logged numerous wind damage reports (trees, wires, power lines) primarily across Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. No tornado or hail reports. Severe potential is now low.

Live Status

As of this late evening update to the October 16, 2026 morning desk (approximately 8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z October 17), the severe weather lane is closed. The SPC 0100Z Day 1 outlook confirms no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast through the remainder of the night. A strong cold front has swept the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England; the low-topped convection that produced damaging winds earlier under the Slight Risk and Watches 686/687 has weakened or moved offshore. Sporadic thunderstorm activity may linger briefly in residual areas, but post-frontal conditions limit any further severe potential. Ongoing storms over the Florida Peninsula are generally weakening, with some residual activity possible overnight near the Keys and near-coastal areas.

The flood lane stays at Marginal only over southeast Florida, where seasonably high moisture supported earlier heavy downpours. Coverage is on the decline, though isolated urban flooding remains possible for a few more hours where slow-moving cells drop 2–3 inches in an hour. The progressive nature of the front limited Mid-Atlantic rainfall to minor ponding. No higher-end excessive rainfall risk is in effect. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings affect the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Separate non-convective High Wind Warnings remain in effect in parts of southern California and Arizona through Saturday.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z 17 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of America quiet; formation not expected next 7 days. Pacific systems (Hurricane Trudy) offshore Mexico only.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1: NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST (0100Z outlook). Prior Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Slight Risk ended with front passage. No convective watches valid. Earlier wind LSRs (trees/wires) mainly PA into NJ/MA/CT; potential now low.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southeast Florida only. Heavy rain coverage declining overnight; localized urban risk possible a few more hours. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

With the severe lane closed, the dominant restoration ticket from earlier in the day (Mid-Atlantic into southern New England wind damage under the Slight Risk and Watches 686/687) is now residual. Teams covering the I-95 corridor from the Washington DC metro through Philadelphia, New Jersey, the New York City area, and into southern New England should assess any remaining tree, wire, and power-line damage from the progressive low-topped line. Standard verification of any lingering local warnings applies, but organized severe potential has ended. Flood remains Marginal only in southeast Florida and does not drive a national water response. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Separate non-convective High Wind Warnings in southern California and Arizona are outside the convective scope. Turn around, don’t drown remains the standing message on any flooded roads.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:12 PM PDT on October 16, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook and watches, WPC Day 1 ERO, NWS WWA summary, NHC. Previous desk: Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic Slight — Oct 16.

October 16, 2026

Storm Updates: West Texas Moderate Flood — Oct 15

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the morning desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-15-morning), WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0644 UTC / 2:44 AM EDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 12Z Thu–12Z Fri) continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of west Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Lower Pecos / Concho Valley). No category change. Focus remains on the southwest shift from the prior central Oklahoma Moderate.
Active Flash Flood Warnings issued this morning by NWS Norman for parts of northern Texas (southeastern Wichita County including Wichita Falls/Sheppard AFB, and central Foard / southeastern Hardeman / northwestern Wilbarger counties) with 1–4 inches already fallen and additional heavy rain possible until late morning. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for west-central Texas (including San Angelo, Abilene, Tom Green, Taylor and surrounding counties) and residual across much of Oklahoma.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC / 7:52 AM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 151300Z–161200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys (isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). No Slight or higher. No convective watches currently valid; Watch 685 expired overnight. No change in severe category from the morning desk.
High Wind Warnings remain in effect across southern California (Inland Empire, San Diego County mountains and valleys, Santa Ana Mountains and foothills) with northeast gusts to 65–70 mph possible through Saturday, and in New Mexico (Albuquerque metro and southern valleys). Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the Sierra Nevada and central/northern California. These are non-convective wind and fire-weather products.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic basin quiet. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (rapidly intensifying, Tropical Storm Watch for Mexican coast) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat.

Live Status

As of the Thursday afternoon desk, October 15, 2026 (approximately 8:20 AM PDT / 10:20 AM CDT / 1520Z), the dominant threat remains the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over west Texas under anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record) and a slowing cold front. Active Flash Flood Warnings are live this morning over northern Texas near Wichita Falls. SPC Day 1 is Marginal only over the Ohio Valley with no watches. Flood Watches cover residual saturated ground across Oklahoma and expanding west-central Texas. High Wind Warnings are in force across parts of southern California and New Mexico but are non-severe.

Hotspots

West Texas Moderate ERO: WPC Day 1 maintains Moderate Risk from just east of Big Bend along the Rio Grande across the Stockton Plateau to the Pecos River Valley and north past the I-10 corridor into the Concho Valley. Areal averages 3–5 inches with local maxima higher possible along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains. Highest concern for flash flooding in poor drainage, low-water crossings, and urban areas of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos. Flood Watches through Friday morning cover much of this corridor including San Angelo and Abilene areas.

Northern Texas active Flash Flood Warnings: NWS Norman issued Flash Flood Warnings this morning for southeastern Wichita County (Wichita Falls, Sheppard AFB) until ~10:45 AM CDT with 2–4 inches already fallen, and for portions of Foard, Hardeman, and Wilbarger counties until noon CDT with 1–2 inches observed and up to 2 inches additional possible. Radar-indicated heavy rain ongoing. Turn around, don’t drown remains the immediate message.

Ohio Valley Marginal severe: SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk covers portions of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys including Indianapolis, Columbus, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Akron. Isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado possible this afternoon and evening near the warm front under modest buoyancy and strong shear. No watches. Overnight LSRs included scattered tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia.

Just Hit

Overnight into early Thursday, LSRs through approximately 0418 UTC documented damaging wind gusts of 60–75 mph across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (power lines, sheet metal, trees). Residual flooding and saturated soils persist across central and southwestern Oklahoma from prior training convection under the previous Moderate ERO. No new convective watches issued this morning.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:20 AM PDT / 10:20 AM CDT / 1520Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy and TS Simon offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk Ohio Valley (isolated wind / brief tornado). No watches. Overnight LSRs mainly wind damage TX/OK and trees OH/WV. Slight Risk closed overnight.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk west Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Pecos / Concho). Active FFWs northern TX (Wichita Falls area). Flood Watches ongoing OK and west-central TX.
Other	Wind / Fire	High Wind Warnings southern CA and NM. Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe wind and fire weather.

Restoration Read

Primary ticket is water over west Texas under the continuing Moderate ERO, with active Flash Flood Warnings this morning near Wichita Falls and expanding Flood Watches into west-central Texas. Residual flooding and saturated ground across central and southwestern Oklahoma from overnight training convection support additional extraction and drying claims. Wind damage claims possible from overnight gusts in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (power lines, sheet metal, trees). Ohio Valley Marginal supports only isolated tree or minor wind claims if storms organize this afternoon. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate from convective restoration.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. The Moderate ERO over west Texas and active Flash Flood Warnings in northern Texas keep the flood lane open. Severe remains Marginal only with no watches. No U.S. tropical threat.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of the Mid-Atlantic for Friday afternoon and evening (damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). WPC Day 2 carries a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of west Texas continuing the front’s slower progression. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Outlook and watches (spc.noaa.gov), WPC Day 1 ERO (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS WWA summary and Flash Flood Warnings (weather.gov). Morning desk: Storm Updates: West Texas Moderate Flood — Oct 15 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:20 AM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 15, 2026

Storm Updates: West TX Flood & Midwest Marginal — Oct 15

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:49 PM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 160100Z–161200Z) holds a Marginal Risk for parts of southern Indiana into Ohio. A small storm cluster continues across southern IN near the surface trough and warm front; locally damaging wind and a brief tornado remain possible this evening before increasing low-level stability diminishes the threat. No category change from the morning desk; prior Slight Risk has closed.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas (Big Bend / Lower Trans-Pecos / Stockton Plateau into Concho Valley, along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains). High neighborhood probabilities above 70 percent for amounts exceeding 5 inches remain centered in the Moderate area. Category unchanged; strongest overnight signal persists.
Residual Tornado Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for southwestern Indiana and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning near Fort Worth TX have expired. Flash Flood Warning for Nolan/Taylor Counties TX expired. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for much of west-central and western Texas. No new convective watches issued. No mesoscale discussions in effect.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no named systems and no formation expected in the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land or Gulf threat. Tropical lane unchanged.
Nothing else material shifted since the morning pulse. Severe residual is diminishing as expected; flood Moderate holds as the primary overnight driver.

Live Status

As of the Thursday afternoon desk, October 15, 2026 (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM CDT / 0415Z October 16), the dominant restoration ticket remains the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over West Texas. Anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record seasonal values, +2 to +3 standard deviations) and a southward-progressing cold front continue to support heavy convective rainfall this evening into the overnight, with the strongest signal for areal averages of 3–5 inches (local higher, pockets of >5 inches) along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains into the Lower Pecos River basin (Sanderson to north of Del Rio) and northward into the Concho Valley. Flood Watches remain in effect through Friday morning across west-central and western Texas.

SPC Day 1 holds a Marginal Risk over parts of southern Indiana into Ohio for the remainder of the period. The small storm cluster near the surface trough and warm front continues to support localized strong/damaging gusts and a possible brief tornado this evening. Surface-based buoyancy becomes increasingly scant with time and northeastward extent; the threat is expected to diminish as convection becomes elevated and low-level stability increases later this evening. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that were live earlier have expired. Limited residual severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front in northwest Texas has also diminished. No mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Overall intensity is waning.

Hotspots

West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Lower Pecos / Concho Valley including San Angelo vicinity): Primary Moderate Risk zone. Focused heavy rainfall expected this evening into tonight as the front progresses and nocturnal low-level jet enhances convergence. Flash flooding of creeks, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor-drainage areas is the main concern. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities remain high (above 70 percent) for amounts exceeding 5 inches centered within the Moderate area. Areal averages 3–5″ with locally higher possible. Flood Watches continue.

Southwest Indiana (Knox / Daviess Counties) into southern Ohio: Residual Marginal Risk. Small storm cluster near surface trough/warm front with modest buoyancy and favorable low-level shear supported brief tornado or damaging wind potential this evening. Threat is diminishing as convection elevates and stability increases. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that confirmed radar-indicated rotation and 60 mph gusts have expired. No watches.

Northwest and residual northern Texas (Fort Worth area, residual northern counties): Residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning for 60 mph wind gusts has expired. Limited organized severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front has diminished. Preliminary LSRs include tree and roof damage near Millsap and power lines down near Weatherford in Parker County TX this evening. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning across west-central Texas with saturated soils elevating residual flash flood risk for any additional cells.

Just-Hit

Overnight and early-morning convection across the southern Plains produced damaging wind reports (gusts 60–75 mph, power lines down, sheet metal and tree damage) in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma, plus scattered tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia. Flash flooding occurred or was radar-indicated in multiple northern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma counties this morning, with 1–4+ inches fallen in warned areas. Residual river rises possible on smaller basins. Preliminary tornado report earlier near Fort Stockton TX remains under survey. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings confirmed radar-indicated threats over southwestern Indiana and residual Texas this evening; those warnings have expired. No new confirmed tornadoes reported in the latest window. Slight Risk closed overnight and reopened farther northeast before reducing to Marginal this evening.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM CDT / 0415Z 16 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; no formation expected next 7 days. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and TS Simon offshore, no U.S. impact. Hurricane Warnings in Mexican offshore waters only.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southern IN into OH (localized strong/damaging gusts and possible brief tornado this evening). Prior Slight reduced. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings expired. No watches valid. Threat diminishing after late evening. No current MDs.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton / Lower Pecos / Concho). Slight broader TX into southern OK. Residual FFW Nolan/Taylor expired. Flood Watches through Friday morning west-central TX and residual OK. Overnight heavy rain signal remains strong.
Other	Wind / Fire	High Wind Warnings AZ/NM/TX mountains and CA (gusts 50–70 mph). Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe products. Separate from convective restoration.

Restoration Read

Primary restoration ticket is water and flash flooding over West Texas under the Moderate ERO, with potential for considerable flash flooding on complex terrain, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor drainage where training occurs under elevated PWATs and frontal convergence. Residual saturated ground and Flood Watches continue across Oklahoma and northern Texas from the prior Moderate axis. Overnight and residual wind damage claims remain possible from earlier 60 mph gusts in northwest Texas and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The Midwest Marginal supports only isolated tree, power line, or minor structural wind claims as residual storms continue this evening near the warm front; any tornado claims would be brief and localized. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate non-convective events and do not drive the same restoration response.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. WPC Moderate Risk remains live over West Texas and SPC holds a Marginal Risk over the Midwest with residual threats diminishing. Not a higher-end severe day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a named-storm hub update (no U.S.-threatening cyclone).

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England for Friday afternoon and evening (scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado accompanying a squall line). WPC Day 2 continues a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas as the front progresses, with the heavy rain threat lingering into early Friday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov, 0100 UTC update), WPC Day 1 ERO discussion (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS WWA summary (weather.gov/wwamap). Morning desk: Storm Updates: West TX Flood — Oct 15 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:15 PM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 15, 2026

Storm Updates: West TX Flood — Oct 15 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:49 PM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 160100Z–161200Z) holds a Marginal Risk for parts of southern Indiana into Ohio. A small storm cluster continues across southern IN near the surface trough and warm front; locally damaging wind and a brief tornado remain possible this evening before increasing low-level stability diminishes the threat. No category change from the prior version of this morning desk; prior Slight Risk has closed.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC / 12:01 PM EDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 16Z Thu–12Z Fri) continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas (Big Bend / Lower Trans-Pecos / Stockton Plateau into Concho Valley, along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains). High neighborhood probabilities above 70 percent for amounts exceeding 5 inches remain centered in the Moderate area. Slight Risk covers broader southwest Texas into southern Oklahoma. Category unchanged.
NWS residual activity: Tornado Warning earlier for east central Knox and central Daviess Counties in southwestern Indiana (radar-indicated). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings residual for portions of northwestern Johnson, southeastern Parker, southwestern Tarrant and northeastern Hood Counties in Texas (near Fort Worth) and for central Knox and Daviess Counties in Indiana. Flash Flood Warning residual for southeastern Nolan and southwestern Taylor Counties in west central Texas. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for much of west-central and western Texas. No convective watches currently valid (most recent was Watch 685, expired).
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no named systems and no formation expected in the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (intensifying, Hurricane Warnings for Mexican offshore waters) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land or Gulf threat. Tropical lane unchanged.
Severe lane holds Marginal as residual warnings confirm the earlier threat over southwestern Indiana and residual Texas activity near Fort Worth. Flood lane remains Moderate with residual Flash Flood Warning in west central Texas and ongoing Flood Watches. No new watches issued.

Live Status

As of the Thursday morning desk update, October 15, 2026 (approximately 8:13 PM PDT / 10:13 PM CDT / 0313Z October 16), two open lanes remain active. The dominant restoration ticket remains the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over West Texas. Anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record seasonal values, +2 to +3 standard deviations) and a southward-progressing cold front continue to support heavy convective rainfall, with the strongest signal for areal averages of 3–5 inches (local higher, pockets of >5 inches) along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains into the Lower Pecos River basin (Sanderson to north of Del Rio) and northward into the Concho Valley. Residual Flash Flood Warning activity and active Flood Watches cover west-central and western Texas. A more immediate high-end Slight threat exists in northwest Texas where soils are saturated and FFGs are low.

SPC Day 1 now holds only a Marginal Risk over parts of southern Indiana into Ohio for the remainder of the period. A small storm cluster has been ongoing across southern IN near the intersection of a surface trough and warm front. As a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and deepening surface low move across the Great Lakes this evening, the warm front continues northward. Modest buoyancy allows maintenance of convection through parts of OH into the Lower Great Lakes, though surface-based buoyancy becomes increasingly scant. In the short term, locally damaging wind was possible with the strongest storms, and favorable low-level shear supported a brief-tornado threat that is diminishing as convection becomes elevated. Residual Tornado Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings confirmed the threat over southwestern Indiana earlier. North/West Texas has a more limited severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front with mainly stronger wind gusts possible but organized severe expected to remain limited; residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning near Fort Worth. Overall storm intensity is expected to wane with increasing low-level stability later this evening. No watches are currently valid.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:13 PM PDT / 10:13 PM CDT / 0313Z 16 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; no formation expected next 7 days. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and TS Simon offshore, no U.S. impact. Hurricane Warnings in Mexican offshore waters only.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southern IN into OH (localized strong/damaging gusts and possible brief tornado this evening). Prior Slight reduced. Residual Tornado Warning Knox/Daviess IN; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings IN and residual TX (Fort Worth area). No watches valid. Threat diminishing after sunset.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton / Lower Pecos / Concho). Slight broader TX into southern OK. Residual FFW Nolan/Taylor Counties TX. Flood Watches through Friday morning west-central TX and residual OK. Near-term high-end Slight northwest TX.
Other	Wind / Fire	High Wind Warnings AZ/NM/TX mountains and CA (gusts 50–70 mph). Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe products. Separate from convective restoration.

Restoration Read

Primary restoration ticket is water and flash flooding over West Texas under the Moderate ERO, with potential for considerable flash flooding on complex terrain, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor drainage where training occurs under elevated PWATs and frontal convergence. Residual saturated ground and Flood Watches continue across Oklahoma from the prior Moderate axis. Overnight and ongoing wind damage claims remain possible from 60 mph gusts in northwest Texas and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The Midwest Marginal supports isolated tree, power line, or minor structural wind claims as storms continue this evening near the warm front; tornado claims would be brief and localized if they materialize, with residual Tornado Warning confirming the radar-indicated threat over southwestern Indiana. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate non-convective events and do not drive the same restoration response.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of the Mid-Atlantic for Friday afternoon and evening (scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). WPC Day 2 continues a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas as the front progresses, with the heavy rain threat lingering into early Friday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov, 0100 UTC update), WPC Day 1 ERO discussion (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, 1601 UTC update), NWS WWA summary including residual Tornado Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warning (weather.gov/wwamap), SPC current watches page (no watches valid). Previous desk: prior version of this morning pulse. Updated in place on slug quiet-pulse-2026-10-15-morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:13 PM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the morning desk, SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, valid 150100Z–151200Z) continues the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. No category change. Linear segments along the cold front continue producing damaging wind gusts into the late evening across southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas under Watch 685.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #685 remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT / 0400 UTC October 15 for portions of southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Mesoscale Discussion 2377 (issued ~0835 PM CDT) and subsequent status messages note a well-defined QLCS with bowing segment and embedded mesovortex advancing along the Red River Valley, supporting a locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and a brief tornado. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue with radar-indicated gusts to 60–80 mph as of late evening.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC Thursday, October 15, 2026) maintains the Moderate Risk across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. Record October PWAT of 2.23 inches at OUN continues to support efficient rates. Additional rainfall of 3–5 inches (local maxima toward 8 inches) remains possible on top of already observed 3–11 inch totals, with highest concern for the Oklahoma City metro and I-40 corridor. Category unchanged.
NWS Norman maintains multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings across the Oklahoma City metro (Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland and adjacent counties) and western/central Oklahoma. Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Simon (weakening) and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.
Preliminary SPC LSRs through late evening include continued wind damage reports in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (gusts 60–65 mph, sheet metal, roof damage), earlier tornado near Fort Stockton TX, and hail to 1.75 inches near Crowell TX. No new category shifts.

Live Status

As of the Wednesday afternoon desk, October 14, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM CDT / 0414Z October 15), the dominant threat remains the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over central Oklahoma and the Red River Valley, with training convection under anomalous precipitable water. SPC Slight Risk and Watch 685 support organized severe potential this evening into the late hours across southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas, with linear/QLCS mode producing damaging winds. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue. Flash Flood Warnings remain live across the Oklahoma City metro and western Oklahoma.

Hotspots

Central Oklahoma / Red River Valley (flood): WPC Moderate Risk. Multi-round training thunderstorms along the outflow boundary and front. High-resolution guidance continues elevated probabilities for additional 3–5 inches (local maxima toward 8 inches) on top of the 3–11 inches already observed, especially along the I-40 corridor west of Oklahoma City and across the metro. Record PWAT values support efficient rainfall rates. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings covering the Oklahoma City metro with reports of widespread flooding of streets, underpasses, and low-lying areas. Flood Watches through Thursday afternoon.

Southwest Oklahoma / west and northwest Texas (severe): SPC Slight Risk under Watch 685 (until 11 PM CDT). Linear segments and QLCS along the front are producing damaging wind gusts (radar-indicated 60–80 mph) this evening, with the threat spreading northeast. Effective shear supports organization. Tornado threat remains low but non-zero (brief QLCS possible per MD 2377). Preliminary tornado report 3 NE Fort Stockton, Pecos County, TX earlier today; hail to 1.75 inches near Crowell, TX and multiple wind damage reports in west/northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.

Ohio Valley residual: SPC Marginal Risk for isolated damaging wind gusts with residual convection from southern Kentucky into the northern Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley. Secondary to the Plains focus. Tree damage reports received earlier in Ohio and West Virginia.

Just Hit

Overnight and early-morning rainfall produced areal averages of 3–4 inches across central Oklahoma west-southwest into the southeastern Texas Panhandle, with local totals of 6–8+ inches west of Oklahoma City and reports reaching 9–11 inches in western counties (near Elk City, Hinton, Okarche corridor). Media and radar confirmed widespread flash flooding in the Oklahoma City metro. Today’s preliminary LSRs include a tornado 3 NE Fort Stockton (Pecos County, TX), hail to 1.75 inches 4 SW Crowell (Foard County, TX), wind gusts to 75 mph in Martin County, TX, power lines down in Midland County, TX, roof and sheet metal damage in northwest Texas, and tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM CDT / 0414Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: TS Simon (weakening) and TS Trudy offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 Slight Risk southern Plains. Watch 685 (SW OK / W-NW TX) valid until 11 PM CDT. QLCS/linear segments producing damaging winds this evening. Active SVR warnings. Primary: damaging wind / large hail; brief tornado possible.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate ERO central OK / Red River Valley TX. Active FFWs/Flood Warnings OKC metro and west OK. Record PWAT 2.23″ OUN. Additional 3–5″ possible on already 3–11″ totals. Flood Watches thru Thu.

Restoration Read

Water tickets dominate under the Moderate Risk and active Flash Flood/Flood Warnings. Extraction, drying, and access work continues in central and western Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City metro, and residual areas of southwestern Texas. Evening severe potential under the SPC Slight Risk and Watch 685 adds hail and wind claims if line segments organize further across southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level warnings before deploying; do not staff as a hurricane response. Turn around, don’t drown remains the immediate public message on flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685, and WPC Moderate Risk remain in effect. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. No named storm hub update required this run.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook carries only a Marginal Risk over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The multi-day heavy rain window continues into Thursday under residual moisture and frontal progression. Monitor for additional Flash Flood Warnings as training develops overnight into Thursday, and for Watch 685 status through 11 PM CDT.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable. Residual public interest centers on Oklahoma City flooding, flash flood warnings, and severe thunderstorms across the Plains.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT October 14, 2026): spc.noaa.gov. SPC Current Watches (Watch 685): spc.noaa.gov/products/watch. SPC Mesoscale Discussions: spc.noaa.gov/products/md. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov. SPC Today’s Storm Reports: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:14 PM PDT on October 14, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.

October 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the prior version of this morning desk and the October 13 afternoon pulse (Slight severe / Slight flood), the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas (latest discussion 0020 UTC / 7:20 PM CDT October 14, valid through 12Z October 15). Greatest probabilities for additional 3”/5”/8” remain centered on central Oklahoma including the Oklahoma City metro. Category unchanged.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook updated 0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026 (valid 150100Z–151200Z) maintains the Slight Risk across parts of the southern Plains. Primary evening threat remains severe wind gusts from linear segments along the cold front in northwest Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma, with a marginal residual into the Ozarks and southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. No category change.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #685 remains in effect until 0400 UTC / 11:00 PM CDT October 15 for portions of southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Status reports and Mesoscale Discussion 2377 confirm the severe weather threat continues, including a QLCS with bowing segment and embedded mesovortex along the Red River Valley. Primary threats: damaging winds (isolated to 75 mph), large hail (isolated to 2 inches), tornado or two possible. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60–80 mph wind threats continue in northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma as of late evening.
Multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active from NWS Norman across the Oklahoma City metro and western/central Oklahoma (3–6+ inches already fallen, locally 4–11 inches west near Elk City/I-40 and Canadian/Kingfisher counties), plus residual FFWs in northwestern Texas (Lubbock) and parts of Ohio/West Virginia. Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Record October PWAT 2.23 inches at 12Z OUN. Canadian River near Bridgeport forecast upgraded to major flooding earlier.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic quiet; Eastern Pacific Hurricane Simon (weakening) and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM CDT / 0412Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: Hurricane Simon (weakening) and TS Trudy offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 Slight Risk southern Plains (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT update). Watch 685 (SW OK / W-NW TX until 11 PM CDT) still live; QLCS bow and mesovortex per MD 2377. Active SVRs with 60–80 mph winds, hail, tornado possible in TX/OK. Marginal wind risk Ozarks and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate ERO central OK into Red River Valley TX. Active FFWs/Flood Warnings in OKC metro, western OK, residual TX and WV/OH. Flood Watches through Thursday. Record PWATs. Additional 3–5″ possible (local 8″) on top of observed 3–11″ totals. Major flooding forecast on Canadian River.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

The latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, updated 0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and valid 150100Z through 151200Z, maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. The summary states that thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.

A mid-level shortwave trough is moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest Texas and are expected to continue east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas, instability is weaker near the boundary. RAP forecast soundings indicate 40 to 50 knots of southwesterly mid-level flow supporting organized thunderstorms. Predominant mode is linear; more intense line segments could produce damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal threat may continue overnight across part of the Ozarks. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685 remains in effect until 11 PM CDT, with Mesoscale Discussion 2377 highlighting continued QLCS risk along the Red River Valley including possible brief tornado.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas, valid through 12Z Thursday, October 15, 2026 (updated ~0020 UTC). The greatest probabilities for exceeding the 3-inch, 5-inch, and 8-inch thresholds remain positioned over central Oklahoma, with the Oklahoma City metro a notable focus. High-resolution guidance continues to indicate widespread areas of additional 3–5 inches of rain with local maxima upwards of 8 inches on top of already observed totals of 3–8 inches (locally higher, up to 11 inches in some western areas) in parts of the region.

An anomalously moist environment is in place with plentiful Gulf moisture and influence from offshore Hurricane Simon, producing precipitable water values near or past record levels for October. The 12Z OUN sounding showed 2.23 inches, the highest recorded for the month during the period of record. Overnight and morning storms produced areal average estimated rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches (locally 6–8 inches and higher) from central Oklahoma west-southwest into the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Coordination with the Norman forecast office supports the Moderate Risk from southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin through central Oklahoma and into the Tulsa metro area. Flood Watches remain in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. A Slight Risk extends into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Life-threatening flash flooding has been reported across the Oklahoma City metro, with major flooding forecast on the Canadian River near Bridgeport.

Active Watches, Warnings, and Reports

As of late evening Wednesday (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM CDT / 0412Z 15 October 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685 is in effect until 11 PM CDT for southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Status reports and MD 2377 indicate the severe weather threat continues with a well-defined QLCS and embedded mesovortex advancing along the Red River Valley. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings from NWS Norman cover portions of Foard, Knox, Hardeman, Wilbarger and adjacent counties in Texas (destructive 70–80 mph winds, hail, tornado possible near Crowell, Quanah, Vernon) and Comanche, Cotton, Jackson, Tillman counties in Oklahoma (60–70 mph winds near Lawton, Cache, Fort Sill, Geronimo). Multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active from NWS Norman across the Oklahoma City metro (Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Kingfisher, Logan and adjacent counties) and western/central Oklahoma, plus residual from NWS Lubbock in northwestern Texas (Crosby, Dickens, Garza, Kent, Cottle, Motley with 2–5 inches fallen) and NWS Charleston in Ohio and West Virginia (1–2.25 inches). Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon across broad areas of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Life-threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, highways, and underpasses is ongoing or expected in places. Turn around, don’t drown remains the critical public message. Preliminary reports emphasize heavy rainfall totals of several inches (OKC metro 3–6 inches, western areas 4–11 inches including Elk City ~8.5 inches and Hinton ~9 inches) and developing wind damage under the watch.

Tropical

The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days in the Atlantic basin. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico with no threat to the United States, and Tropical Storm Trudy is also well south of Mexico. No Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane Watches or Warnings are in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always consult the latest products from the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center for official guidance and warnings. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.

October 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

As of ~9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 (KS/MO, expired 0400Z) has reached its expiration; Watches 683 (OK/TX Panhandle until Midnight CDT / 0500Z) and 684 (west TX until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect. Primary threats unchanged: large hail to 2.75 inches, damaging winds to 80+ mph, isolated tornado possible.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 0800 PM CDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) continues to hold the Slight Risk across southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. No category upgrade since the morning 1300 UTC outlook.
Preliminary SPC LSRs (1200 UTC Oct 13 onward, through ~2344 UTC) remain: hail to 2.75 inches near Matador TX and Mclean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, multiple 1.00–1.75 inch reports in KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX, 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. No tornado reports received.
Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue under the remaining watches, with prior destructive threats noted in the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Slight ERO holds across the corridor with Flood Watches for KS/MO including KC metro. Tropical lane unchanged: no U.S. land threats from Atlantic or EP systems.
No new mesoscale discussions issued in the last hour; storms continue organizing into clusters along the front with upscale growth expected overnight under the low-level jet.

Live Status

As of approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watches 683 and 684 remain live over western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle, and west Texas, while Watch 682 for Kansas and northwest Missouri has expired. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk continues to cover scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight from the southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg, and 35–45 kt shear continue to support supercells transitioning to linear and cluster modes. Preliminary LSRs confirm large hail and damaging winds are verifying. The low-level jet is expected to sustain convection overnight.

A Marginal Risk persists for isolated severe gusts in parts of western and central New York and for overnight expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. The WPC Day 1 Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook and associated Flood Watches cover the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas. The multi-day unsettled period with heavy rain potential continues through Thursday.

Hotspots

KS / NW MO — Watch 682 expired

Southern and eastern Kansas into west-central and northwest Missouri were under Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z. The watch included the Kansas City metro, Wichita, and Topeka corridors. Threats included large hail (1–2.5 inches), damaging winds (60–80 mph), and a low tornado risk, concurrent with Flood Watches for the KC metro. Active warnings earlier included destructive wind threats over the Kansas City area; preliminary hail and wind reports occurred in central Kansas. Storms continue to track east as the watch ends.

Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX — Watches 683 and 684 live

Western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas remain under Watch 683 until Midnight CDT / 0500Z; west Texas under Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z. Threats: large to very large hail (to 2.75 inches), damaging winds (to 81 mph), and an isolated tornado. LSRs include 2.75-inch hail near Matador and Mclean TX, 2.50-inch hail near Hedley TX, and an 81 mph gust near Turkey TX. Prior mesoscale discussion 2371 noted an organizing cluster across southwestern into central Oklahoma. The WPC Slight ERO extends into the region.

Overnight Marginal and western/central NY

A Marginal Risk continues for isolated severe gusts. Scattered storms remain possible in western and central New York with a watch unlikely. Overnight Marginal expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri is possible for organized wind if convection persists along the front.

Just Hit

Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (from 1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC): hail to 2.75 inches near Matador (Motley County, TX) and Mclean (Wheeler County, TX), 2.50 inches near Hedley (Donley County, TX), 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX. Wind reports: 81 mph measured near Turkey (Hall County, TX), 75 mph near Flomot (Motley County, TX), 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), 63 mph near McAdoo TX, and tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. Radar-indicated larger hail and 70–80 mph gusts occurred under active warnings, including earlier destructive threats over the Kansas City metro. No tornado reports have been received. Residual minor Flood Warnings elsewhere remain non-severe leftovers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
KS / NW MO	Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight; Watch 682 expired 0400Z; WPC Slight; Flood Watches (KC metro)	Watch expired; earlier LSRs and destructive warnings including KC metro; storms tracking east
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX	Large hail (to 2.75″), damaging wind (to 81 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight/Marginal; Watches 683/684 until Midnight–2 AM CDT; WPC Slight	Live; Watches 683/684 active; 2.75″ hail and 81 mph wind LSRs in TX Panhandle
Overnight Marginal / western-central NY	Isolated severe gusts, localized wind	SPC Marginal	Isolated possible; limited NY coverage; overnight expansion possible
CONUS watches / outlook	Severe storms	SPC Slight; Watches 683 + 684 live (682 expired); LSRs arriving	Two watches active; short-fuse warnings and preliminary reports ongoing

Restoration Read

Slight Risk severe weather continues under live Watches 683 and 684 (Watch 682 expired), with preliminary LSRs confirming large hail (to 2.75 inches) and damaging wind gusts (to 81 mph) across the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas. Teams covering Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, Amarillo, Lubbock, and Oklahoma corridors should stage for tree, roof, siding, and exterior damage from hail and gusts. Concurrent Flood Slight and active Flood Watches make water the co-equal ticket; monitor low-lying areas, creeks, and urban runoff as rainfall rates climb. No tropical or coastal surge tickets. Standard posture: confirm county products on weather.gov, stage for mixed wind/hail/water response, and re-check as storms continue overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not an Enhanced or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher excessive rainfall day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent tornadoes or widespread damage beyond the preliminary reports. The Slight remains the official category; Watches 683 and 684 confirm the threat is still underway in the southern portions. All reports remain preliminary and subject to revision.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau (mainly damaging winds, with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible) for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with Marginal elsewhere including parts of the upper Ohio Valley. WPC continues the multi-day heavy rain potential into the Plains/Missouri Valley corridor. Cooler air is expected later in the week.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hub

No named storm threatening U.S. land. Prior residual hubs: Hurricane Isaias 2026 and Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No new hub created.

Sources

Primary: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook 0100 UTC, mesoscale discussions including MD 2371, Watches 682/683/684, today’s LSRs), WPC Day 1 ERO, NWS watches/warnings summary, nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Confirm local products on weather.gov before travel or work. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.

October 13, 2026