Tag: storm tracker 2026

  • Storm Updates: Carolinas Wind Pulse + Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026

    This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Friday, September 18, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia, northern Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale discussions referenced in the 2000 UTC package (MCDs 2306 and 2307) are no longer in effect. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and a second Slight Risk over southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind and trees already verifying across central North Carolina, isolated hail leftover from Intermountain cells, and water tonight from southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0241 PM CDT, valid 182000Z–191200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Wendt made only minor adjustments from the midday package. Headline: an isolated severe risk continues for portions of the Carolinas into northern Georgia and parts of the Intermountain West. Isolated severe storms are also forecast later today across portions of northern Iowa and parts of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Charlotte, Atlanta, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Durham. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk on Day 1. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC categorical headline. Risk-area size on the 2000 UTC graphic is about 179,316 square miles covering roughly 19.6 million people.

    Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 1805 UTC Friday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    The 2000 UTC discussion points to MCDs 2306 and 2307 for additional information. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Most recently issued discussion on the current-MD page was 2305. Treat those numbers as the latest issued discussions, not standing watches.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 16Z Friday through 12Z Saturday holds Slight Risk for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. The 16Z update expanded the eastern edge of the Slight and high-end Slight about one to two counties into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois, where recent heavy rain left the ground sensitive. Highest amounts still focus over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with model-consensus QPF in the 2 to 4 inch range. A separate Slight Risk covers southwest Montana. Marginal Risk remains over South Florida and the Keys, a remnant Intermountain/Southwest terrain corridor, a Northern Plains strip, and a thin Ohio Valley pocket. WPC’s short-range discussion already flags a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. That is tomorrow’s water upgrade, not today’s Day 1 map.

    Hotspot 1 — Carolina Piedmont into northern Georgia

    A wavy stationary front this morning ran from southern Illinois through southern Indiana and southern Ohio into southwest Pennsylvania. Decaying showers preceded it from southern Illinois into northern Kentucky. The boundary is shifting south as cooler air follows a shortwave through southern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. The front is relatively weak, but it is interacting with a warm, moist, diurnally destabilized airmass across the Carolina Piedmont and northern Georgia. Precipitable water is over 2 inches. Vertical shear is weak. Storm mode is outflow-dominant. The risk is occasionally strong downbursts, not a long-lived supercell corridor.

    That language already verified this afternoon. Preliminary LSRs on the 18/1200Z cycle include a 69 mph gust at KGSO (5 ESE Colfax, Guilford County), a 66 mph gust at KFAY (4 ENE Hope Mills, Cumberland County), trees down on I-85 near Route 68, trees blocking roads in Randolph, Davie, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, and a power-company outage from downed trees northwest of Craven in Rowan County. Those are trees-on-pavement and trees-on-wires tickets in the Charlotte–Greensboro–Fayetteville corridor, not a watch-scale outbreak.

    Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree, tarp, and board-up capacity for the Piedmont counties that already have LSRs. Hail is not the lead threat on this corridor. Water is secondary unless a cell trains over the same ZIP that already took a 2-inch precipitable-water plume.

    Hotspot 2 — Upper Mississippi Valley water

    A Northern Plains disturbance continues east from the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. WPC keeps the Slight Risk and high-end Slight focused on southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with the eastern edge nudged into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois because those counties already took rain. Local NWS language from La Crosse this afternoon still has 1–3 inches likely and 4–6 inches possible in pockets, with a Flood Watch south of I-94 and rivers such as the Kickapoo at Gays Mills and Viola and the Cedar at Charles City expected to reach minor flood stage if the heavier corridor verifies.

    SPC’s northern Iowa Marginal is a separate overlay: elevated storms tonight on warm-air advection and a moderate low-level jet, with isolated hail the primary severe hazard and a strong gust or two if any linear structures develop. That is hail and wind on the southern edge of the water corridor, not a Slight Risk severe day.

    Restoration read: water first from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin into northeast Iowa tonight. Extraction and wet-drywall clocks start the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to a Piedmont tree job and a Kickapoo basement without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

    A shortwave trough continues east into southern Idaho and northern Utah. Highs stay relatively cool — upper 60s in southern Idaho, low to mid 70s in northern Utah — but cold temperatures aloft plus strong deep-layer shear still support organized updrafts. Isolated severe gusts and small hail remain the SPC language. That already verified on today’s LSR cycle: 1.50-inch hail 2 W of Kaysville in Davis County, Utah, and quarter-size hail near Farmington in San Juan County, New Mexico.

    On the High Plains, a mid-level vorticity maximum lifting north-northeast later this evening may support isolated severe gusts and a conditional, less-than-5-percent hail risk if a more cellular mode holds into better low-level moisture near the Colorado–Nebraska–Kansas border. Storms may grow upscale into a small eastward-moving cluster this evening. Isolated outflow surges, not a derecho.

    Restoration read: hail first if cells verify over the Wasatch Front or the Four Corners. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated except for the separate southwest Montana Slight Risk, where WPC introduced Slight coverage after Thursday’s cell behavior and 0.5–1.5 inch guidance.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 18/1200Z–19/1159Z cycle already include one brief landspout at Lighthouse Point in Broward County, Florida (palm fronds lofted; no damage path described as a supercell tornado), quarter to 1.50-inch hail in San Juan County, New Mexico, and Davis County, Utah, and a long list of North Carolina wind reports from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Cumberland, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, and Moore counties, including measured 69 mph at Greensboro and 66 mph at Fayetteville.

    The last 24-hour ticket pile on the prior cycle (17/1200Z–18/1159Z) is the Idaho hail outbreak the morning desk already logged: tennis-ball hail (2.50 inches) near Rose in Bingham County, golf-ball hail in Blackfoot and Shelley, quarter to 1.25-inch hail across Bingham, Blaine, Jefferson, and Bear Lake counties, plus 1.50-inch hail at Midway, Wasatch County, Utah, and 1.50-inch hail near Broadwater, Morrill County, Nebraska. Wind on that cycle included power lines down at Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; a 61 mph gust south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees in Beavercreek, Greene County, Ohio; a tree-fall injury in Ashland, Boyd County, Kentucky; and trees in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana. A brief tornado touchdown was reported 11 NNE of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska. Those products are expired. The roofs and cars in Bingham County are still the ticket.

    This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the 1300 UTC outlook family. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, confirms still-zero watches, and adds the live North Carolina LSR cluster and the WPC 16Z flood-edge nudge into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    Carolina Piedmont / northern GADownburst wind, trees, wiresSPC MarginalLive — LSRs already in
    SE MN / west-central WI / NE IAFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC Slight (high-end core)Tonight’s organized water ticket
    Northern Iowa / far southern MNIsolated hail, isolated gustsSPC MarginalElevated storms tonight
    Southern ID / northern UT / Four CornersIsolated hail and severe gustsSPC MarginalLive cells; 1.50″ hail at Kaysville
    Central High PlainsIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalEvening cluster if heating holds
    Southwest MontanaFlash flood, 0.5–1.5″WPC SlightDiurnal terrain cells
    South Florida / KeysUrban flooding, landspout noiseWPC MarginalDiurnal; one brief landspout LSR
    Bingham County ID (overnight)Tennis-ball to golf-ball hailLSRs prior cycleJust-hit
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    The live ticket this afternoon is wind on the Carolina Piedmont: trees, wires, and a measured 66–69 mph pair at Greensboro and Fayetteville. Isolated Intermountain hail is a roof and auto-glass survey if cells keep firing over the Wasatch Front or Farmington, New Mexico. The organized ticket tonight is still water from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin. Idaho’s overnight tennis-ball hail around Blackfoot, Rose, and Shelley is a separate just-hit staffing problem from this afternoon’s Piedmont wind.

    For teams near the Carolina Marginal: the warnings and LSRs are already out. Photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on Upper Mississippi and Montana washes.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCDs 2306 and 2307 are not watches. The Broward landspout is a brief landspout LSR, not a tornado outbreak. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it keeps verifying, will be scattered: a tree swath through a Piedmont county, a hail report on the Wasatch Front, and heavier rain over southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Saturday) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible across the central High Plains, central Rockies, and the Midwest to Southeast. The 1730 UTC Day 2 summary calls for scattered severe wind and hail-producing storms on the central Plains. WPC already has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, any new watches, and whether that Moderate flood risk is the morning headline rather than assuming today’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Wendt); Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); current mesoscale discussions (none in effect); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260918 cycle and 20260917 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Campbell, 332 PM EDT Fri Sep 18, 2026); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 18, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Friday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Friday, September 18, 2026. Overnight convection dumped tennis-ball hail on Bingham County, Idaho, knocked power lines down near Lewisville, and forced National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls and Rexburg areas that expired before dawn. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, across Iowa, over parts of the central High Plains, and again in the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover hail and interior water in eastern Idaho, isolated damaging gusts on the Carolina Piedmont and in Iowa this afternoon, and training rain from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0719 AM CDT. Valid 181300Z–191200Z. Headline: an isolated severe risk later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. Categorical risk is Marginal over about 171,000 square miles and roughly 21 million people. Wind is the shared 5 percent contour. A 2 percent tornado contour sits over north-central Iowa (Ames, Ankeny, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown). A 5 percent hail contour remains over the Salt Lake City–Provo corridor.

    No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is in effect. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Watch 669, already expired. Today’s 1200 UTC–onward local storm report page is empty as of this desk: no tornado, hail, or wind reports on the new cycle yet. Last night’s work is on the September 17 cycle.

    WPC’s 1034 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over the Upper Mississippi Valley (southern Minnesota into Wisconsin and adjacent Iowa/Illinois) and a separate Slight over southwest Montana. Marginal flood pockets cover leftover Southwest terrain, the northern High Plains, South Florida and the Keys, a Midwest/Great Lakes corridor, and the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance still supports 2 to 4 inches in the better Upper Midwest swath.

    The National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Atlantic outlook and companion eastern and central Pacific outlooks list no tropical cyclones. That sentence stays off the restoration board unless NHC names something that threatens U.S. land.

    Overnight into this morning

    Thursday’s SPC report cycle (1200 UTC September 17 through 1159 UTC September 18) is the just-hit file. One brief tornado was reported 11 miles north-northeast of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska, around 0034 UTC. Hail clustered on eastern Idaho: 1.00 to 1.75 inches around Blackfoot, Shelley, Firth, Moreland, and Menan; 2.50 inches (tennis ball) one mile north-northeast of Rose in Bingham County; 1.25 inches at Gannett in Blaine County; 1.00 inch east of Alton in Bear Lake County. Utah added 1.50 inches at Midway in Wasatch County. Nebraska High Plains added 1.50 inches east-southeast of Broadwater. Missouri picked up 1.00 inch near Saint Paul in St. Charles County.

    Wind: power lines down in Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; 61 mph at the INL rover south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees and shingles near Saint Paul, Missouri; a 59 mph gust at Truth or Consequences, New Mexico; trees down in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana; a large tree on Yalta Drive in Beavercreek, Ohio; several large trees in Ashland, Kentucky, with one person injured and transported when a tree fell. Overnight flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls area (until 2:00 AM MDT) and the Rexburg area (until 2:45 AM MDT) have expired. Those were water jobs on eastern Idaho drainages after the same hail cores, not a new watch this morning.

    Hotspot 1 — Carolinas into northern Georgia

    A cluster of weak thunderstorms this morning over Kentucky and West Virginia rides south on northerly flow around a mid-level high over the Ark-La-Tex. SPC expects rejuvenation near convective outflow along the Virginia–North Carolina border, then scattered storms over the Piedmont into northern Georgia as the boundary layer heats. Isolated 50–60 mph gusts are the advertised threat. Cities inside the Marginal contour include Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Atlanta.

    Restoration read: wind first, not a tornado outbreak. Stage tarps and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. This is a scatter of cores, not a watch-boxed line.

    Hotspot 2 — Iowa and the Upper Mississippi Valley

    A front lies from the lower Ohio Valley west into the mid Missouri Valley, with a weak surface low over western Nebraska. Lower-70s dewpoints sit south of the boundary. SPC favors thunderstorms over Iowa into far southern Minnesota where heating and low-level forcing erode inhibition. Primary hazard is marginally severe gusts. Enlarged hodographs near the warm front leave a localized chance of a couple of weak, short-lived supercells — that is the 2 percent tornado contour, not a Slight Risk upgrade. Upscale growth late evening would drift toward the southwest Great Lakes and lose buoyancy.

    WPC’s Slight Risk is the organized water ticket. A disturbance tracking out of the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin can support 2–4 inches where the low-level jet blossoms the rain shield. That is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock in the better swaths, not a river-flood headline yet.

    Restoration read: Iowa wind this afternoon, Minnesota–Wisconsin water tonight. Do not staff both with the same crew without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

    A mid-level trough crosses the Intermountain West. Dewpoints in the 50s from northern Utah into western Wyoming valleys, MLCAPE 1000–1200 J/kg, and moderate shear support isolated severe gusts and hail again late afternoon and evening — the same corridor that just put tennis-ball hail on Bingham County. On the High Plains, a vorticity maximum over New Mexico may help isolated storms grow into a small eastward cluster over eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, with isolated severe gusts on outflow.

    Southwest Montana sits under WPC’s second Slight Risk after Thursday’s cell behavior and ensemble 2-inch QPF. Rates can still beat flash-flood guidance even if storms stay progressive. Residual Marginal flood language covers New Mexico and Arizona terrain for one more diurnal cycle.

    Just hit

    Eastern Idaho hail, the expired Idaho Falls and Rexburg flash-flood warnings, the Garden County brief tornado, and the Ashland, Kentucky tree injury are yesterday’s tickets. Thursday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already carried the Idaho–Utah Marginal and Dakotas flood Slight on the prior Day 1 package. This morning desk moves the live outlook east onto the Carolinas and Iowa and slides the flood Slight onto the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Carolinas / northern GAIsolated 50–60 mph gustsSPC MarginalAfternoon–evening cells
    Iowa / southern MNGusts; localized brief tornadoSPC Marginal; 2% tornadoAfternoon into evening
    Southern MN / WI / adjacent IA–ILFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC SlightToday’s organized water ticket
    Northern UT / ID / WY valleysIsolated hail and severe gustsSPC Marginal (5% hail UT)Late afternoon–evening
    E CO / SW NE / NW KSIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalEvening cluster possible
    Southwest MontanaFlash flood on progressive cellsWPC SlightAfternoon–evening
    Bingham / Jefferson / Madison IDHail, wires, expired FFWsAftermathJust-hit desk
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling cycloneNHC quietQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Idaho hail is already on cars, windows, and roofs in Bingham County. That is same-day emergency board-up and a multi-day supplement fight, not a forecast. Carolina and Iowa wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work if cores verify. Upper Mississippi Valley rain is extraction and drying if 2–4 inch swaths land on saturated ground. A 2 percent tornado contour is a narrow, short-lived threat — staff it as a local damage survey if a warning verifies, not as a regional event.

    For teams near Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Des Moines, Ames, or the Salt Lake valley: stage before peak heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk convective day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind-damaged street on the Piedmont, a brief spin-up near an Iowa warm front, another hail core in a Utah or Idaho valley, a flooded underpass in southern Minnesota or Wisconsin. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    Saturday’s Day 2 outlook is already a Slight Risk of scattered severe wind and hail over portions of the central Plains, with isolated severe storms possible from the High Plains and central Rockies into the Midwest and Southeast. Sunday is Marginal. Day 4–8 has no 15 percent areas. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker for the 1630 UTC Day 1 update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the weekend.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead); SPC current watches page (none valid; last watch 669); SPC local storm reports for 20260917 and 20260918; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 1034 UTC Friday; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook; National Weather Service Pocatello flash-flood warning text for Idaho Falls and Rexburg, now expired.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight. Related overnight posts: Idaho Falls flash-flood warning and Rexburg flash-flood warning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026

    This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon and evening over parts of Idaho and Utah and a small part of the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2304 covers southern and central Idaho with a 20 percent chance of a watch. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains the organized ticket: Slight Risk over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon is isolated hail and wind if cells verify over the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front, plus water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0247 PM CDT, valid 172000Z–181200Z. Forecasters Chalmers and Weinman made no changes from the midday package. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 2000 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday remains off the map.

    Current convective watches: none. SPC watch page last updated 2059 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    MCD 2304, issued 0246 PM CDT and valid 1946Z–2215Z, covers parts of southern and central Idaho. Concerning: severe potential, watch unlikely. Probability of watch issuance: 20 percent. Summary: the risk of a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase through the remainder of the afternoon. Most probable peak wind gust 55–70 mph. Most probable peak hail size 1.00–1.75 inches. Offices tagged: Pocatello, Missoula, Boise. By late afternoon the live MD list showed no mesoscale discussions currently in effect; treat 2304 as the latest issued discussion, not a standing watch.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday still has two Slight Risk corridors. One is a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is aftermath, not a live upgrade.

    Hotspot 1 — Southern and central Idaho into northern Utah

    Morning water vapor showed an upper low over northern California with a band of strong flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs across Nevada into Utah and Idaho. Strong heating was expected to aid scattered thunderstorms from southern Idaho into northern Utah by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty or damaging winds. Coverage is limited. SPC still expects one or two severe cells later today, mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain. The 18Z Boise sounding in MCD 2304 sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongating, mostly straight hodograph with about 30–40 kt of cloud-layer shear. Cells first. Small clusters later if outflow organizes.

    Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that owns this afternoon’s Utah cells.

    Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Snake River Plain, Boise, Pocatello, or the Wasatch Front. Wind second if storms cluster. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity before the first warning, not after. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

    Hotspot 2 — Dakotas water corridor and the High Plains wind overlay

    Remnants of a weak tropical low tracked northeast across the Four Corners this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent support considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms over the Colorado mountains and southern Wyoming, spreading east into eastern Colorado and western Nebraska and Kansas. High-based convection poses a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Daytime heating is the limiter because of lingering cloud cover. That is the SPC Marginal overlay: isolated gusts, not a Slight Risk wind event.

    WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona pivots through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

    Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

    The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

    Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 17/1200Z–18/1159Z cycle show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are still an afternoon and evening problem.

    The last 24-hour ticket pile sits on the prior cycle (16/1200Z–17/1159Z): no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

    This morning’s Storm Tracker already covered the same outlook family at 1300 UTC. This afternoon desk updates to the 2000 UTC package, adds MCD 2304, and confirms still-zero watches and still-zero LSRs on today’s cycle.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    Southern / central ID into northern UTIsolated hail and severe gusts; possible small clustersSPC Marginal; MCD 2304 watch unlikelyLive afternoon–evening cells
    NE CO / western NE / High PlainsIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalLate afternoon clusters if heating punches
    WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IAFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC Slight (high-end over SD)Today’s organized water ticket
    NM / E AZ / San Juans / SacramentosFlash flood, burn-scar debris flowWPC Slight; leftover from Wed ModerateDiurnal terrain cells
    Western / north-central OHTrees, wires, barn and roof damageLSRs overnight; warnings expiredJust-hit
    Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MOQuarter to half-dollar hailLSRs overnightJust-hit / same offices own today’s risk
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Isolated severe hail on the Snake River Plain and Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Boise, Pocatello, Salt Lake, or Provo. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is still water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

    For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. MCD 2304 is watch-unlikely, not a watch. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an Idaho or Utah county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Friday, 1730 UTC package) holds Marginal Risk of isolated severe storms across parts of Idaho and Utah, Nebraska and Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia. Population centers listed on that outlook include Charlotte, Atlanta, Omaha, Lincoln, and Greensboro. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into the Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman); Mesoscale Discussion 2304 (Weinman/Hart); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for the 20260917 cycle and 20260916 cycle; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026; NWS warning text archive including Cleveland OH overnight products now expired.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Thursday, September 17, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down in western and north-central Ohio and quarter-to-half-dollar hail in eastern Utah and mid-Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail across parts of Utah and Idaho into southwest Montana, plus a second Marginal over the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus a new afternoon hail/wind corridor in the Intermountain West and a water ticket on the Dakotas, Wyoming Front Range, and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0730 AM CDT. Valid 171300Z–181200Z. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday is off the map this morning. Poor lapse rates aloft and extensive cloud cover keep severe-wind probabilities below 5 percent from the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic.

    Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired days ago. SPC watch page last updated 0849 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday has two Slight Risk corridors. One covers a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is no longer the live upgrade. It is the just-hit and burn-scar follow-through desk.

    Hotspot 1 — Utah, Idaho, and southwest Montana

    A closed mid/upper-level low over northern California this morning will drift east across the northern Intermountain region. A 40–50 kt southwesterly mid-level jet and difluence aloft overspread the northern Great Basin this afternoon. SPC’s uncertainty is instability under morning cloud and ongoing rain. Upper-40s to low-50s dewpoints are already in place. Some guidance still builds 1000–1250 J/kg of MLCAPE over southeast Idaho and northern Utah if heating punches through. If that happens, a focused corridor of greater hail and wind potential exists because deep-layer shear is strong enough for supercells. Otherwise the threat is isolated hail and gusty winds with cells and small clusters across the northern Great Basin.

    Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that will own this afternoon’s cells.

    Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Wasatch Front and southeast Idaho. Wind second. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity in the Salt Lake–Provo–Boise belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

    Hotspot 2 — Central High Plains and the Dakotas water corridor

    Between the West Coast upper low and Southeast ridging, minor mid-level perturbations lift northeast from the Southwest toward the central High Plains by evening. SPC expects additional storms from northeast Colorado into western Nebraska late afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit updraft intensity. Sufficient shear still allows a small cluster or two with isolated severe gusts spreading east-northeast through the evening. That is the wind overlay on top of WPC’s water story.

    WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona will pivot through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

    Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

    The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

    Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

    Today’s 17/1200Z cycle has no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet as of this morning desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are an afternoon and evening problem.

    Wednesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Ohio Valley Marginal and the Arizona Moderate flood risk while they were live. This morning’s desk treats Ohio wind and Arizona washes as aftermath and moves the live outlook west and north.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    UT / ID / SW MTIsolated hail and severe gusts; possible supercells if CAPE buildsSPC MarginalAfternoon–evening cells
    NE CO / western NE / High PlainsIsolated severe gustsSPC MarginalLate afternoon clusters
    WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IAFlash flood, 2–4″ swathsWPC Slight (high-end over SD)Today’s organized water ticket
    NM / E AZ / San Juans / SacramentosFlash flood, burn-scar debris flowWPC Slight; leftover from Wed ModerateDiurnal terrain cells
    Western / north-central OHTrees, wires, barn and roof damageLSRs overnight; warnings expiredJust-hit
    Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MOQuarter to half-dollar hailLSRs overnightJust-hit / same offices own today’s risk
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Isolated severe hail on the Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Salt Lake, Provo, or southeast Idaho. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

    For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. Edouard is already in the archive. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Utah or Idaho county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Friday) holds Marginal Risk across parts of the northern Intermountain West, the central Great Plains into the southern middle Missouri Valley, and the Carolina–Georgia Piedmont. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into that Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 1200 UTC–20260917 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion (Kleebauer); National Weather Service warning text including Cleveland OH, Salt Lake City, Springfield MO, and Phoenix/Flagstaff/Tucson overnight flood products now expired; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 16 afternoon Storm Updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

    This is a live Wednesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of northern Utah and parts of Ohio and vicinity. No convective watches are valid. Two mesoscale discussions are out this afternoon — MD 2302 for east-central Indiana into central Ohio and MD 2303 for northeastern Utah — both tagged severe potential, watch unlikely. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook still holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

    What is organized this afternoon is water in the Southwest, not a Midwest derecho. Restoration exposure is isolated damaging wind or hail if a cell or small cluster holds together in Ohio or Utah, plus flash flood and burn-scar runoff where the monsoon plume sits over Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, and the San Juans. Conditions change by county. Verify with the National Weather Service before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0232 PM CDT, valid 162000Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. The 20Z update said the forecast remains generally on track with only minor changes. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Fort Wayne, Akron, and Salt Lake City. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities.

    Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    MD 2302, issued 0246 PM CDT for east-central Indiana into central Ohio, valid through 162145Z: isolated thunderstorms near the Indiana/Ohio state line ahead of a stalled front. Temperatures in the 80s to near 90 F with mid-70s dewpoints. Effective shear 20–30 kt. Most probable peak gust up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 5 percent.

    MD 2303, issued 0353 PM CDT for portions of northeastern Utah, valid through 162300Z: a developing supercell in a 500–1000 J/kg MLCAPE environment with 40–50 kt effective shear. Primary risk large hail (most probable 1.00–1.75 inches) plus isolated damaging gusts up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 20 percent. Watch still unlikely.

    WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, valid 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, keeps the organized water story in the Southwest. Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona, including the Phoenix metro and the Mogollon Rim, and over the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico around the Ruidoso burn-scar country. High-end Slight Risk covers much of Arizona into southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and much of New Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered flash-flood prospects remain possible later across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front, and again tonight along the I-80 corridor from Iowa into northern Illinois.

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. Yesterday’s 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window is the just-hit file.

    Hotspot 1 — East-central Indiana into central and eastern Ohio

    SPC’s 1630 and 2000 UTC discussions keep the Ohio Valley on precip-loaded downdrafts, not supercells. PWAT values approaching 2 inches and steep low-level lapse rates can still produce strong or occasionally damaging winds. MD 2302 is the afternoon confirmation that cells are already firing near the state line. Coverage is widely scattered. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit how long any one core lasts.

    Overnight flash-flood warnings from Wilmington, Ohio, and Northern Indiana for Mercer County, Ohio, and Grant, Blackford, Adams, and Wells counties, Indiana, have expired. Those counties already took 1.5 to 3 inches before dawn. That water is still on the ground even if the warning product is dead.

    Restoration read: wind first if a cluster organizes through early evening, then trees and lines. Water first in the counties that already flooded overnight. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus–Pittsburgh belt before the first new warning, not after it.

    Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

    This remains today’s organized flood ticket. WPC language still prints 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the south-central Arizona desert including Phoenix and surrounds, the Mogollon Rim, southern Utah slot-canyon country from Zion toward Moab, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language around Ruidoso and similar terrain.

    SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 2000 UTC outlook. Water is the story. Gusty outflow is possible. Do not invent a severe-thunderstorm watch here.

    Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Hotspot 3 — Northeastern Utah into far northwest Colorado

    Moisture has increased across Utah over the past 24 hours, with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s and PWAT over 1 inch. A band of 35–45 kt southwesterly mid-level flow is enough for a few rotating storms. MD 2303 is the live product on that cell: hail first, isolated wind second, watch unlikely. Grand Junction’s overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County expired before dawn. That scar can still run if another core sits on it.

    Restoration read: isolated hail and wind tickets around the Wasatch Front and northeastern Utah valleys if the supercell holds. Burn-scar runoff is a separate life-safety problem from a roof-survey call in Salt Lake, West Valley, Provo, or Orem.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for 15/1200Z–16/1159Z show no tornadoes. Hail included 2.00 inches at Edgerton, Johnson County, Kansas; 1.75 inches west of Cairo, Randolph County, Missouri; 1.50 inches near Alta, Peoria County, Illinois; and 1.00-inch stones at Smyer, Texas, and Richmond, Missouri. Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a nearby plant; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas, and southeast of Hazelton, Kansas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph south of Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Richmond and the Kansas City suburbs (Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, west of Raytown); trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; 65 mph near Wallen, Allen County, Indiana; numerous trees down near Lake Wawasee, Kosciusko County, Indiana; and power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

    Kansas City/Pleasant Hill still has river flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new convective watch. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This afternoon treats that corridor as aftermath plus river follow-through.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    East-central IN / central–eastern OHIsolated damaging wind, leftover flash floodSPC Marginal; MD 2302 watch unlikelyCells live near the state line
    Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NMFlash flood, debris flow on burn scarsWPC Moderate excessive rainfallToday’s organized water ticket
    Northeastern UT / NW COIsolated hail and gusts, burn-scar runoffSPC Marginal; MD 2303 watch unlikelySupercell language this afternoon
    NE KS / NW MO / Grand RiverRiver flooding, wind/hail damageFlood warnings; LSRs last nightJust-hit / in channel
    IA / northern IL (tonight)Training rain after 03ZWPC Slight along I-80 corridorNocturnal pulse still ahead
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind at 60 mph is trees, lines, gutters, and isolated roof work — not a regional CAT. Two-inch hail from last night is already a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

    For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: the afternoon window is now, not tonight. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. Two MCDs with watch-unlikely tags are not watches. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a hail core in northeastern Utah, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Thursday, valid 171200Z–181200Z) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The 1730 UTC Day 2 discussion leaves room for later low-end wind probabilities near the Appalachians and Ohio Valley but kept the threat too marginal for an outlook area in this update. WPC still has a nocturnal Slight flood overlay from Iowa into northern Illinois late tonight, plus lingering Southwest water. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman, previous Hart/Chalmers); 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2302; Mesoscale Discussion 2303; SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer, 352 AM EDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlooks, September 16, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

    Morning desk: Wednesday, September 16 morning Storm Updates. Prior afternoon: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona–New Mexico Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Overnight convection across the south-central Plains into the Midwest produced wind and hail. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah into far northwest Colorado. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus water on the Missouri River system and a new monsoon-style flood ticket in Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0745 AM CDT. Valid 161300Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Akron, Salt Lake City, and Dayton. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package.

    Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

    WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language for the period beginning 12Z Wednesday has shifted the organized water story west. The Moderate Risk that covered northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri on Tuesday is now the just-hit and river-flood desk. Today’s Moderate Risk is over southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, with a high-end Slight Risk across much of Arizona into southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Isolated flash-flood prospects remain possible later today across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front.

    Hotspot 1 — Indiana into Ohio and the upper Ohio Valley

    A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over Illinois and northwest Indiana is forecast to track east across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Mid-level westerlies stay modest, generally 20–30 kt. SPC expects additional convective development this afternoon across parts of Indiana into Ohio as a moist low-level airmass destabilizes. Poor lapse rates aloft should limit updraft strength. Locally damaging winds are the hazard if loosely organized clusters form and spread east through early evening, then weaken with loss of heating.

    Overnight LSRs already put trees and lines down in Kosciusko and Noble counties in Indiana, plus a measured 65 mph gust near Wallen in Allen County. Northern Indiana and Wilmington, Ohio, offices issued overnight flash-flood warnings for heavy rain of 1.5 to 3 inches in parts of Grant, Blackford, Adams, Wells, and Mercer counties. Those products expired this morning. The water is still on the ground.

    Restoration read: wind first this afternoon if clusters organize. Water first in the counties that already took 2–3 inches before dawn. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Indianapolis–Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning.

    Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

    This is today’s organized flood ticket. WPC upgraded Day 1 excessive rainfall to Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains. Guidance continues to print 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the Mogollon Rim, south-central Arizona including the Phoenix metro and surrounds, southern Utah slot-canyon country, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language on higher terrain.

    SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 1300 UTC outlook. Modest lapse rates, cloud cover, and only marginal deep-layer shear keep the severe-wind/hail threat limited. Gusty outflow is still possible. Water is the story.

    Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

    Hotspot 3 — Utah into far northwest Colorado, plus leftover Kansas–Missouri water

    On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low over northern California, 35–45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the Great Basin. Ongoing storms over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado are in a strongly sheared but weakly unstable environment. SPC leaves room for isolated severe hail or gusts if cells or small clusters can form with filtered afternoon heating. Limited heating should keep the overall severe risk marginal. Grand Junction issued an overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County; that product expired before dawn.

    Kansas and northwest Missouri are no longer the new Moderate Risk. They are the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs include 2.00-inch hail at Edgerton, Kansas; 1.75-inch hail west of Cairo, Missouri; trees, wires, and power poles in Richmond, Ray County; wires down around Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, and west of Raytown; and a small building damaged north of Clifton Hill. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new watch.

    Just hit

    SPC preliminary storm reports for the 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail clustered from the Texas South Plains through the Kansas City metro into Peoria County, Illinois (1.50 inches near Alta). Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a plant nearby; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph at Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

    Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This morning’s desk treats that corridor as aftermath plus river-flood follow-through.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    IN / OH / upper Ohio ValleyIsolated damaging wind, leftover flash floodSPC Marginal; overnight FFWs expiredAfternoon clusters possible
    Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NMFlash flood, debris flow on burn scarsWPC Moderate excessive rainfallToday’s organized water ticket
    Eastern UT / NW COIsolated hail/gusts, burn-scar runoffSPC MarginalAfternoon cells possible
    NE KS / NW MO / Grand RiverRiver flooding, wind/hail damageFlood warnings; LSRs overnightJust-hit / in channel
    TX South Plains / NW OK / south-central KSMeasured severe gusts, isolated hailLSRs overnight; no watch nowAftermath
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo named cycloneNHC: no tropical cyclonesQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Wind at 60–75 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Two-inch hail is a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas, and neighboring ZIPs. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

    For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. A trough several hundred miles east of Bermuda has only a low chance of development and is not a land threat today. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 (Thursday) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 holds Slight Risks of excessive rainfall for portions of the north-central Plains, Upper Midwest, and southwestern U.S. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260915 1200 UTC–20260916 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion; National Weather Service warning text including Wilmington OH, Northern Indiana, Grand Junction, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Quad Cities, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 16, 2026.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

    This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook keeps a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. No convective watches are in effect. The organized story this afternoon is water: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk from northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight Risk wrapping the Kansas City metro and I-70 corridor.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is flash-flood water first, then isolated wind-driven roof and tree work where the front fires cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook at 2:55 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 15, 2026, valid through 7:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday. The categorical call is Marginal. Population centers listed in the risk area include Indianapolis, Kansas City, Wichita, St. Louis, and Toledo. Summary language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. SPC explicitly opted against a categorical upgrade. As of the SPC watches page update Tuesday afternoon, no watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Tornado Watch 669 on Monday.

    Mesoscale Discussion 2300, issued 1:59 p.m. CDT, covered the Texas Panhandle into central Kansas. Watch issuance probability was 20 percent. Language: thunderstorm coverage increasing; sporadic strong gusts, with a locally greater chance of 50–65 mph from northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas. Most probable peak wind up to 60 mph; hail up to 1.25 inches. A watch was not anticipated. By late afternoon the current-MCD page showed no mesoscale discussions in effect.

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1556 UTC Tuesday and valid 16 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday, is the higher-confidence overlay. Moderate Risk covers portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance supports 2–3 inch areal averages and locally 3–5 inches from just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph. Flash-flood guidance is already low after morning rain. A high-end Slight Risk surrounds that core, including the Kansas City metro and I-70. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

    National Hurricane Center: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is weakening well out in the eastern Pacific (about 15.7°N, 125.0°W, 30 mph). Post-tropical Norbert is a remnant low far from U.S. land. Neither threatens the U.S. mainland this afternoon.

    Hotspot 1 — Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

    This is the live flood desk. WPC broadened the Moderate Risk on the 16Z update to match an uptick in amounts and coverage near the Kansas–Nebraska–northwest Missouri juncture. Cold front slides southeast; best heavy-rain window is late afternoon through overnight as the low-level jet injects moisture along a boundary-parallel flow. Neighborhood probabilities for greater than 1 inch per hour have run 40–70 percent for several hours in the core.

    Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; far southeast Nebraska along the Missouri River; the Kansas City metro on the high-end Slight, not inside the Moderate core but close enough that a southward shift matters.

    Restoration read: water first. Stage extractors and drying kits for basements, slab leaks, and low-water crossings that fail after dark. Morning rain already lowered flash-flood guidance. Photograph interiors only if it is safe. Do not treat Kansas City the same as St. Joseph without checking which county has a warning now.

    Hotspot 2 — South-central Kansas, northern Missouri, and the cold-front wind line

    SPC’s 20Z update said locally greater potential for a couple of damaging or severe wind gusts may exist across south-central Kansas and northern Missouri where guidance shows greater storm coverage on the cold front. Enhanced deep-layer shear is displaced north of the boundary; better thermodynamics sit farther south. That split is why the outlook stayed Marginal. Earlier MCD 2300 language pointed at northwest Oklahoma into south-central and east-central Kansas for 50–65 mph gusts if cells organize.

    Cities and counties to watch: Wichita and south-central Kansas; northwest Oklahoma; northern Missouri counties along and north of the front; scattered cells from the Texas Panhandle east-northeast toward Illinois as convective temperatures are reached.

    Restoration read: isolated wind, not a line you staff like a Slight-plus-watch night. Tarps and tree crews if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning verifies. Hail is secondary and limited by warm temperatures aloft.

    Hotspot 3 — Four Corners / Southwest rain and leftover Plains wind tickets

    Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms had formed across the Four Corners by about 1930 UTC. SPC notes weak buoyancy in a deep, well-mixed boundary layer — enough for an isolated strong to perhaps severe cell, not a concentrated severe area. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico, with locally 2–3 inches in the hardest terrain.

    Yesterday’s organized wind corridor is already tickets. SPC storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 14–15 window include measured gusts of 87 mph near Guide Rock, Nebraska; 83 mph near Smith Center, Kansas; 77 mph near Amy, Kansas; 76 mph near Beatrice, Nebraska; 75 mph near Elmwood, Nebraska; plus trees and power lines in Cass and Lancaster Counties, Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames, Iowa, and other High Plains points. Today’s 1200 UTC-forward LSR page still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon scan. That can change after dark.

    Restoration read: Southwest is flash-flood and outflow in terrain. Nebraska–Kansas–Iowa wind from Monday night is roof, siding, and tree-on-drop work already on the books.

    Just hit

    Monday evening’s Tornado Watch 669 (western into central Iowa, far northwest Missouri, eastern Nebraska, effective 4:50 p.m. until midnight CDT Monday) is closed. The gust and tree reports listed above are that corridor. Iowa river and urban water from the last two days can still be in the channel even if today’s new Moderate Risk sits farther southwest. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk plus isolated wind along the front. No new U.S. mainland tropical landfall.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE NebraskaFlash flood, training heavy rainWPC Moderate excessive rainfallLive flood overlay; evening peak
    Kansas City / I-70 corridorHeavy rain, urban floodingWPC high-end SlightWatch the southward shift
    South-central KS / N Missouri / NW OKIsolated damaging windSPC Marginal; MCD 2300 watch unlikelyNo watch; scattered cells
    Plains–Midwest Marginal envelopeIsolated wind, lightningSPC Marginal (~166,470 sq mi)Disorganized vs Monday night
    Eastern AZ / western NMFlash flood, strong outflowWPC SlightAfternoon–overnight terrain cells
    NE / KS / IA just-hit windRoof, trees, service dropsMonday Watch 669 closedAftermath tickets
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC quiet on the mainlandQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Water on a Moderate Risk with already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock, plus vehicles in flooded crossings. Isolated 50–65 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in a single county, not a regional wind event. Monday night’s 70–87 mph measured gusts in southern Nebraska and north-central Kansas are the jobs already called in.

    For teams near Topeka, St. Joseph, and Kansas City: stage extraction before the overnight training window, not after the first flooded intersection. Property owners should photograph damage if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC did not upgrade to Slight. No convective watch is out this afternoon. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and remnant Norbert are Pacific and offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded county in northeast Kansas or northwest Missouri, an isolated wind swath on the front, leftover tree jobs from Monday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 remains generally quieter on organized severe over the central United States. A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is flagged Wednesday morning across the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity. Along the remnant front from the Ohio Valley into the lower Missouri Valley, scattered strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon in weak shear, without a 5 percent severe-wind area on the 0600 UTC Day 2 package. Day 3 language available this afternoon showed no severe thunderstorms. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming tonight’s flood core is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 15, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:55 p.m. CDT); SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid; last watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2300; SPC storm reports for 20260914 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1556 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 21:06 UTC. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates, Tuesday morning, September 15, 2026.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MCDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran northern Kansas, southern and eastern Nebraska, and western and central Iowa is the just-hit desk. This morning the Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. The louder national product is flood: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Moderate Risk over portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight wrapping the Kansas City metro and the I-70 corridor.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover wind damage from last night plus a new heavy-rain ticket on already-wet Kansas and Missouri ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    No Storm Prediction Center convective watch is in effect. Tornado Watch 669, issued late Monday evening, expired at 0500 UTC Tuesday (midnight CDT). Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668 from Monday afternoon is also down. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:28 a.m. CDT) is Marginal only. SPC language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A Slight upgrade was considered for eastern Kansas into Missouri if an organized cluster can form, but the 1300 UTC package left probabilities at Marginal.

    WPC’s 0800 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the headline product. A Moderate Risk covers northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips the far southeast corner of Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance centers the heaviest totals just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph, with 2 to 3 inches areal-average and locally 3 to 5 inches possible. Kansas City and the I-70 corridor sit in a high-end Slight. A broader Slight Risk extends south along the cold front on the High Plains and northeast into Midwest counties that already took rain overnight. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

    National Hurricane Center: there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and Tropical Depression Norbert are both well out in the Pacific and not a U.S. mainland landfall threat.

    Hotspot 1 — Northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri (flood)

    This is today’s primary new ticket. WPC coordinated a Moderate Risk with the Topeka and Kansas City weather forecast offices after neighboring counties already saw localized flash flooding earlier in the event. Precipitable-water anomalies of +2 to +3 standard deviations and flash-flood guidance that is already lowered set up 1-inch-per-hour rates after late-afternoon initiation. Best window is late afternoon through tonight as a low-level jet reloads the boundary. Training west-southwest to east-northeast is the mode that fails streets, underpasses, and small creeks first.

    Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and the northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; the Kansas City metro as a high-end Slight, not the Moderate core; far southeast Nebraska along the river.

    Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on a 24-hour clock if cells train over the same ZIP that already took rain Monday night. Do not treat Kansas City as the Moderate core unless WPC or the local office upgrades it later today.

    Hotspot 2 — South-central Plains into the Midwest (Marginal wind)

    A surface cold front will slide slowly south-southeast across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley through this evening and stall late. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s sit ahead of it from the southern High Plains to the southern Great Lakes. SPC expects storms to develop roughly 20–23Z along much of the front. Loosely organized clusters with damaging wind are the primary severe concern, more so where heating is stronger on the southern and central Plains. Isolated hail is possible if a marginal supercell can hold from eastern Kansas into Missouri. Population under the 5 percent wind contour includes Wichita, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Chicago.

    Restoration read: isolated 60 mph-class gusts and trees on service drops, not a regional wind event. Stage in the counties that already have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, not the entire Marginal contour.

    Hotspot 3 — Southwest scatter and leftover Iowa water

    WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico. Isolated 2 to 3 inch cores on terrain are possible. SPC does not have severe probabilities over the Four Corners this morning; gusty outflow and small hail remain possible but unorganized.

    Iowa is yesterday’s and last night’s water still in the channel. NWS Des Moines had a Flash Flood Warning into 9:00 a.m. CDT this morning for parts of Dallas, Madison, Adair, Cass, Audubon, and Guthrie counties after 1 to 3 inches already on the ground. That is extraction work already on the books, not a new watch.

    Just hit

    Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports from the 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window show a long wind corridor and almost no hail. One landspout was reported near Arboles, Colorado. No tornado path damage is in the filtered LSR set as of this morning desk.

    Measured wind highlights overnight: 87 mph 3 NE Guide Rock, Webster County, Nebraska; 83 mph 3 SE Smith Center, Smith County, Kansas; 77 mph 4 NNW Amy, Lane County, Kansas; 76 mph 4 N Kendall, Hamilton County, Kansas, and again 2 NNW Beatrice, Gage County, Nebraska; 75 mph 5 ESE Elmwood, Cass County, Nebraska; 74 mph 4 SW McClelland, Pottawattamie County, Iowa; 73 mph 1 N Shelby, Shelby County, Iowa; 71 mph near Richfield, Morton County, Kansas. Tree and power-line damage reports came in from Cass and Lancaster counties in Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames in Iowa, plus scattered tree work in Hinds County, Mississippi, and a power pole down in Tucson, Arizona. That is Monday night’s wind ticket. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE NebraskaFlash flood, training heavy rainWPC Moderate excessive rainfallAfternoon through tonight
    Kansas City / I-70 corridorHeavy rain, urban floodWPC high-end SlightTonight
    S-central Plains into MidwestIsolated damaging wind, isolated hailSPC Marginal20–23Z initiation
    Northern KS / NE / western–central IAWind damage, trees, leftover waterLSRs overnight; Watch 668/669 expiredJust-hit / aftermath
    SW Iowa (Des Moines CWA)Flash flood from overnight rainFFW into 9 a.m. CDTMorning water
    E Arizona / W New MexicoTerrain flash flood, gusty outflowWPC SlightAfternoon cells
    Atlantic vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC quiet on the AtlanticQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Last night’s 70–87 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Webster and Smith counties, the Kansas High Plains, Gage and Cass in Nebraska, and Pottawattamie and Shelby in Iowa. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Today’s new ticket is water on the Topeka–St. Joseph axis. Heavy rain on already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa southwest counties that sat under the early-morning flash-flood warning are extraction first, not a new severe-wind desk.

    Do not staff the entire SPC Marginal contour as if it were yesterday’s Slight. Yesterday’s Slight verified as a wind line. Today’s organized threat is rainfall rate, not shear.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Watch 669 is expired. SPC left the Day 1 package at Marginal because an organized cluster is still too uncertain. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded intersection north of Topeka or around St. Joseph, a wind swath in an eastern Kansas or Missouri county if a cluster does organize, leftover trees from last night’s Nebraska–Iowa line. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 is Marginal again Wednesday morning near the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity for hail and wind on a shortwave. Day 3 is no severe. WPC will reissue the excessive-rainfall outlook later this morning; treat the Moderate contour as live until that update. The next Storm Tracker desk will catch any watch that fires on the Kansas–Missouri boundary this afternoon.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 15, 2026; SPC current watch page (Tornado Watch 669 expired 0500 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 20260914 reporting day; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0800 UTC Tuesday; National Weather Service warning text including Des Moines flash-flood warning IAC001-009-029-049-077-121; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook showing no Atlantic tropical cyclones.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, September 14 storm updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Watch 668 Kansas–Nebraska, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026

    This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across northern Kansas and southern and eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668, issued at 3:45 p.m. CDT, covers western and northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska until 10:00 p.m. CDT. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday, keeps a Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa.

    These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and tree work in the watch, isolated hail, a conditional tornado in the eastern Nebraska–western Iowa corridor if a surface-based supercell holds, and interior water where Iowa cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this afternoon

    Watch 668 is the organized wind desk. SPC issued it at 3:45 p.m. CDT Monday, September 14, 2026, for portions of western and northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska, effective until 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. High-based storms are expected to continue in a hot, well-mixed environment and spread northeast near a pre-frontal trough.

    The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT by Karstens and Wendt, did not change the categorical Slight Risk. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes all appear possible. Severe thunderstorm winds will also be possible across northern and western Kansas. An 18z Omaha sounding showed about 2,232 J/kg MUCAPE as destablization spread north into central and eastern Nebraska. SPC still expects an elongated area of convection from north-central Kansas into south-central and eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa, favoring supercells early, then a quick transition to clusters and line segments. Exact initiation remains uncertain in recent HRRR and RRFS runs. No SPC mesoscale discussion was in effect as of mid-afternoon UTC; Watch 668 is the current watch product.

    WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall discussion, issued 3:40 a.m. EDT Monday, September 14, 2026, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, coordinated with the Des Moines forecast office. HREF blended-mean QPF of 3–5 inches is cited near Des Moines and points south and southwest, with neighborhood probabilities of 60–80 percent for more than 3 inches and 3-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance probabilities of 50–70 percent. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from the Door Peninsula through eastern Nebraska, plus a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest west of the I-25 corridor.

    Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

    This is the Slight Risk core. SPC places 5 percent tornado probabilities over parts of eastern Nebraska near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, Bellevue, and Fremont, with 2 percent tornado probabilities extending toward Des Moines, Sioux City, Ames, West Des Moines, and Ankeny. Fifteen-percent wind and hail contours overlap the Omaha–Lincoln–Council Bluffs corridor. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet is forecast to increase effective storm-relative helicity this evening. SPC notes lingering low-level inhibition on RAP soundings and says it remains unclear whether convection will fully tap that shear. A sustained surface-based supercell in that environment would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. Weak instability farther east in eastern Iowa should limit the severe risk deeper into the night.

    Cities and counties to watch: Omaha, Lincoln, Bellevue, Fremont, and Council Bluffs; Sioux City, Fort Dodge, Ames, Des Moines, West Des Moines, and Ankeny; counties along and just ahead of the cold front from southeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.

    Restoration read: wind and hail first if supercells hold, then water if the same cells train on the WPC Moderate footprint. Stage tarps, generators, and extraction pumps before dark. Treat a tornado warning as a narrow local survey, not a regional event.

    Hotspot 2 — Watch 668: western and northern Kansas, south-central Nebraska

    The watch box runs roughly 45 miles north and south of a line from 145 miles southwest of Hill City, Kansas, to 50 miles east of Hastings, Nebraska. That is high-based, mixed-layer convection along the pre-frontal trough, not the same supercell corridor as Omaha. Primary threats are damaging wind, isolated 80 mph gusts, and hail to about 1.5 inches through 10:00 p.m. CDT.

    Cities and counties to watch: Hill City, Hays, and northern Kansas counties in the watch outline; Hastings, Grand Island, and south-central Nebraska counties in and near the box. Confirm the county list on the Watch 668 outline update at SPC before you pre-position.

    Restoration read: dry-microburst and outflow wind on roofs, siding, and center-pivot country. Photograph in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Hail claims will be isolated, not a swath unless a cell stays surface-based longer than expected.

    Hotspot 3 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood Moderate, plus Southwest rain

    The flood desk is Iowa. WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for this Day 1 period because CAM guidance clustered 3–6 inch totals south of I-80, with urban streets and low-water crossings the first failures. A broader Slight Risk still covers eastern Nebraska through much of the Midwest. Expectation is scattered flash flooding tonight into early Tuesday morning.

    The Southwest Slight Risk covers eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico west of I-25, and southwestern Colorado. PWATs are cited near the 95th–99th percentile. That is monsoon-style heavy rain on complex terrain and remnant burn scars, plus strong outflow, not the Plains watch.

    Restoration read: Iowa is water and a 24–48 hour mold clock if 3-inch cores verify in town. The Southwest is localized washouts and urban flooding, not a CAT roster.

    Just hit

    SPC storm reports for the 12 UTC Monday, September 14, 2026 through 12 UTC Tuesday window showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs at the time of this afternoon desk. That is a quiet start to the convective day, not a forecast of a quiet evening. Last night’s 12 UTC Sunday–Monday window still holds the tickets already on the board: tree and wire work across Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and West Virginia from Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–Northeast line; a roof peeled in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; microburst-style trees and minor roof damage near Cloverport, Hardeman County, Tennessee; 1.00-inch hail near Sterling, Johnson County, Nebraska, and in Cascade and Judith Basin counties, Montana; a 61 mph gust near Patagonia, Arizona.

    Sunday’s organized wind corridor is yesterday. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is Watch 668 and the eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk plus Iowa flash flooding.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS levelStatus this afternoon
    Eastern NE / western–central IAHail, damaging wind, conditional tornadoSPC Slight (2000 UTC)Live Slight; initiation still uncertain
    Western / northern KS, south-central NEDamaging wind to 80 mph, hail to 1.5 inWatch 668 to 10 p.m. CDTLive watch
    Central / southwestern IowaFlash flood, 3–6 in cores possibleWPC Moderate excessive rainfallTonight into Tuesday morning
    Midwest Slight (Door Peninsula to eastern NE)Scattered flash floodWPC SlightOvernight
    E AZ / NM west of I-25 / SW COHeavy rain, outflow, burn-scar floodWPC SlightAfternoon–evening cells
    Eastern North CarolinaIsolated gusty wind, small hailLocal / no categorical severe areaIsolated
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC: no Atlantic TCsQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    Watch 668 wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Kansas and south-central Nebraska. The Slight Risk east of that box is the same plus a conditional tornado and large hail if a supercell holds from Lincoln–Omaha into western Iowa. Iowa’s Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if the 3-inch HREF signal verifies south of I-80. Do not send one crew to both the watch box and Des Moines without checking which county has a warning now.

    For teams in or near Watch 668: stage before sunset, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products as of Monday afternoon, September 14, 2026, show no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is in the east-central Pacific about 1,125 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, with 40 mph winds and a weakening trend. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is about 785 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Neither threatens U.S. mainland land. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath in the Kansas–Nebraska watch, a hail or tornado report in the eastern Nebraska Slight Risk, flooded intersections south of I-80 in Iowa.

    Looking ahead

    The SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:14 p.m. CDT Monday, September 14, 2026 (valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday) is a Marginal Risk in a corridor from Kansas into western Ohio. Summary language: scattered strong thunderstorms may occur from the Great Lakes southwestward through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Shear is forecast to be weak. Storms should be primarily short-lived, with a few clusters near the front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 668 is the last line of the week.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources dated Monday, September 14, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668; SPC current watches and today’s LSR page (no reports in the 12 UTC Monday window at desk time); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific public pages. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning).

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 668, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Monday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran the upper Ohio Valley into New York is down. No Storm Prediction Center watches are currently valid. The Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0746 AM CDT holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. The Weather Prediction Center overlays a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on central and southwestern Iowa, with a broader Slight Risk from eastern Nebraska through the Midwest and a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest monsoon corridor.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind and hail on the Nebraska–Iowa Slight, interior water where Iowa cells train south of I-80 tonight, and leftover tree-and-roof work from Sunday evening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC lists no current convective watches. The most recently issued watch was number 667 earlier in the week; Sunday’s Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor produced local severe thunderstorm warnings and wind damage but did not carry an overnight watch into Monday morning.

    The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook (valid 1300Z Monday through 1200Z Tuesday) draws the Slight Risk from roughly Grand Island and Hastings east-northeast through Omaha and Lincoln into western and central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro on the eastern edge. A Marginal Risk wraps a wider ring from the Dakotas and Minnesota south through Kansas. Elevated convection is already ongoing this morning across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley on a strong low-level jet. SPC expects that band to stay mostly sub-severe and weaken late morning, then a new surface-based corridor to fire along or just ahead of a cold front across eastern Nebraska by late afternoon.

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0733 UTC, is the louder product this morning: Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, with locally 3 to 6 inches possible south of I-80 toward Des Moines and points southwest. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from eastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota and the Door Peninsula, plus a separate Slight over eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado.

    Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

    This is today’s organized severe desk. A mid-level shortwave and 50–70-plus kt mid-level jet move east-northeast across the northern Plains. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream north into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa after morning convection clears. SPC allows a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE if surface temperatures reach the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Initial storms should be supercellular enough for large hail. Mode is expected to transition quickly to clusters and line segments. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet supports ample storm-relative helicity this evening; a sustained surface-based supercell would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. That is the official language, not a guarantee that one occurs.

    Cities and counties to watch: Lincoln, Omaha, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Des Moines, Ames, and the I-80 belt from Grand Island through western Iowa. Watch issuance, if it comes, is an afternoon product — not a morning one.

    Restoration read: hail and wind first on the Nebraska side; water second once the same storms cluster over Iowa after dark. Stage tarps and generators before 4 p.m. local. If a warning includes both wind and heavy rain, treat the ZIP as a dual ticket by morning.

    Hotspot 2 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood overlay

    WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for D1 in coordination with the Des Moines office. HREF blended mean QPF runs 3–5 inches over the area encompassing Des Moines and points south and southwest. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches are 60–80 percent in that pocket, with 25–30 percent for more than 5 inches. Three-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance sits 50–70 percent. The main concerns are urban footprints and low-water crossings south of I-80. Heavy rain is expected to linger into early Tuesday morning.

    A broader Slight still covers eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Isolated flash-flood concerns this morning ride the progressive elevated band; the more appreciable footprint is the evening and overnight wave.

    Restoration read: this is tonight’s water ticket. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water is inside. Do not wait for a river flood warning if streets and finished basements are already taking the 1-inch-per-hour cores.

    Hotspot 3 — Sunday just-hit and Southwest scatter

    Overnight LSRs from the 1200 UTC Sunday–Monday window show the Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor verified as wind, not tornadoes. Preliminary reports include a roof ripped off a home and multiple trees down in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; trees and wires across Lawrence, Butler, Crawford, McKean, and Clearfield counties in Pennsylvania; trees on structures and roads in Washington County, Ohio, and Wood County, West Virginia; and additional tree and wire damage in Onondaga, Oneida, Franklin, Fulton, and Saratoga counties in New York. Isolated 1.00-inch hail fell near Monarch and Raynesford, Montana, and 2 south of Sterling, Nebraska, after midnight. A 61 mph gust was measured near Patagonia, Arizona.

    Today the Southwest stays a flood-and-outflow desk. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado on monsoon-style cells, burn scars, and slot canyons. SPC does not carry 5 percent severe probabilities there, but isolated strong gusts and small to near-severe hail are possible where heating is strongest. Eastern North Carolina sits under a cold front with only a low-end isolated wind/hail mention.

    Just hit

    Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–central New York Slight Risk is yesterday’s ticket: trees, wires, and isolated roof work from eastern Ohio through northwest Pennsylvania into central New York. Watch 667 from Saturday is long expired. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this morning. National Hurricane Center discussion shows no Atlantic tropical cyclones; Tropical Storm Norbert and a weakening eastern Pacific depression are well offshore and not a mainland or Hawaii landfall problem today.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Eastern NE / western–central IALarge hail, damaging wind, few tornadoes possibleSPC Slight (1300Z)Afternoon–evening; no watch yet
    SW / central Iowa south of I-80Flash flood, 3–6″ local totalsWPC Moderate excessive rainfallEvening into Tuesday morning
    OH / PA / WV / NY from SundayTrees, wires, isolated roof damageLSRs; watches expiredAftermath
    Eastern CO / western–northern KSIsolated severe gusts, high-based cellsSPC MarginalAfternoon scatter
    AZ / NM / SW COFlash flood, strong outflowWPC SlightAfternoon–evening cells
    Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling tropical cycloneNHC quiet on the mainlandQuiet

    What this means for restoration teams

    Eastern Nebraska this evening is hail and wind: roofs, siding, screens, and vehicles. Western and central Iowa is the dual ticket — the same storms that throw hail west of the Missouri River can train 3-plus inches of rain over Des Moines and counties southwest of I-80 after dark. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath. Staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional outbreak.

    Sunday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York wind is already on the books: tree-on-structure, service drops, and isolated roof peel. Photograph remaining damage in daylight if it is safe, then move crews toward the Nebraska–Iowa corridor rather than chasing last night’s counties unless a specific claim is already open.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an eastern Nebraska county, a flooded intersection south of I-80 in Iowa, leftover trees in Ohio or New York. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk as the same trough lifts toward the Upper Great Lakes. Day 3 currently carries no severe area. WPC language keeps heavy rain lingering into early Tuesday over the same Iowa footprint. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300Z Slight is the last line of the day — a watch can still go up if the warm sector destabilizes as drawn.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, September 14, 2026 (Gleason/Lyons); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1010 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 13/1200Z–14/1159Z window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific discussions this morning.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon, September 13 storm updates.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.