Tag: storm tracker 2026

Storm Updates: Upper Ohio Valley–Central New York Slight Risk — Sunday, September 13, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Sunday, September 13, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from the upper Ohio Valley into central New York, covering about 43,500 square miles and 8.3 million people, with Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, and Canton inside the higher contour. A broader Marginal Risk wraps Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, and Albany. No convective watches and no mesoscale discussions were in effect on the afternoon check. Restoration exposure this window is wind-driven roof and tree work on the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York corridor, leftover Saturday water in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, and a separate WPC flood Slight over southern New England plus eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC upgraded portions of the corridor to Slight earlier Sunday with the 1630 UTC package and held that upgrade in the 2000 UTC update issued 2:57 p.m. CDT by forecaster Wendt. The language is isolated to widely scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening, mainly damaging wind along a cold front moving east through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for organized bands, short bowing segments, and a few initial supercells. Hail is secondary because lapse rates aloft are only about 6–6.5 C/km. Storms are expected to weaken with eastward extent this evening as nocturnal cooling and a less unstable airmass take over.

As of the afternoon product cycle, SPC listed no watches valid (most recent issued watch was 667 on a prior day) and no mesoscale discussions in effect (most recent MD 2291). Today’s official LSR page covering 1200 UTC September 13 through 1159 UTC September 14 still showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports at the afternoon check — the front had not yet produced a logged severe report in that window.

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC September 13 through 12 UTC September 14 and issued 3:46 a.m. EDT, keeps Slight Risk areas over portions of the Northeast and the Central Plains. Southern New England language focuses on Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island, with the threat expected to exit late afternoon. Central Plains language favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight as a low-level jet strengthens. A Marginal Risk remains over the Southern Rockies and Four Corners on monsoon moisture and already-wet soils.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into central New York

This is the live Slight contour. SPC expects widely scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front from parts of Ohio into western New York by mid-afternoon, then a quick eastward sweep across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Population centers inside the Slight: Pittsburgh, Rochester, Akron, Syracuse, Canton. Marginal ring includes Columbus, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Dayton, Albany.

Counties to watch: Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland, and neighboring southwest Pennsylvania counties; Summit, Stark, Portage, and adjacent northeast Ohio counties; Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Onondaga, and neighboring western and central New York counties. Lake-effect is not the story — this is a progressive cold-front band.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark even without a watch. If a warning includes heavy rain on soils already wet from Saturday, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Southern New England flood leftover plus Mid-Atlantic runoff

WPC’s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall over the Northeast is the second desk. Discussion from the 0748 UTC Sunday package: precipitable water up to about 2.25 inches, efficient rainfall rates, and concern for Long Island and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island through mid-to-late morning into afternoon before the axis exits offshore. Flash Flood Warning text earlier Sunday covered eastern Worcester County, Maryland, including Ocean City and Berlin, with 1–2 inches already down and rates near 2 inches in 30 minutes. That warning window closed in the morning; the afternoon desk treats it as runoff and urban ponding unless a new warning fires.

Saturday’s heavy rain is still in Appalachian channels. Overnight and early-Sunday Flood Warning and Flash Flood Statement text from Charleston, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh referenced lingering high water after 1–6 inches Saturday in pieces of Kanawha, Clay, Braxton, Gilmer, Lewis, Harrison, Doddridge, and southern Clarion County, Pennsylvania. Those are aftermath tickets, not a new Slight Risk.

Restoration read: southern New England is today’s water if cells trained this morning. West Virginia and western Pennsylvania are yesterday’s water still in the street and the basement. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains scatter and Central Plains flood overnight

SPC keeps isolated strong-to-severe storms possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon and evening — southern Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and the Nebraska Panhandle in a modest upslope regime — then elevated storms increasing over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley late tonight. Hail and gusts are the local threats, not a watch-scale line.

WPC’s second Slight Risk sits on the Central Plains overnight. Guidance favors eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including low-to-moderate chances of more than 3 inches near the Kansas City metro in some 00Z HREF members. That is a Monday-morning extraction desk if cells train on the front.

Restoration read: High Plains is isolated hail and wind. Kansas City–eastern Kansas–western Missouri is the overnight flood watch list, not this afternoon’s Ohio Valley wind list.

Just hit

Saturday’s (September 12, 1200 UTC through Sunday 1159 UTC) preliminary LSRs are already tickets. Kansas carried the hardest wind: Chanute Martin Johnson Airport logged 84 mph at 0545 UTC Sunday; Chanute dispatch reported power outages and tree branches; utility poles went down near Galesburg in Neosho County. Clark County, Kansas, mesonet gusts reached 75 mph near Acres. Cherokee County, Kansas, saw a hangar roof collapse near Hallowell and 70 mph estimated at West Mineral. Perryton, Texas, had 6–8 power poles snapped south of town and an uprooted tree. Kingfisher County, Oklahoma, reported snapped wooden poles and 60–70 mph gusts near Cashion.

Hail: golf-ball (1.75 inch) at Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; 2.00 inch near Coldwater and Wilmore in south-central Kansas; walnut-size at Holdrege, Nebraska. Pennsylvania already had tree-and-wire work Saturday afternoon across Washington, Allegheny, Jefferson, Westmoreland, Indiana, and Greene counties — including a tree on a house near Spraggs. A landspout was reported near Palm Coast, Florida, and an EF-0 survey was completed east of Spring Grove, Virginia. Those are closed survey items, not today’s Slight Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Upper OH Valley / SW PA / central NY	Damaging wind, lightning, isolated hail	SPC Slight (2000 UTC)	Live outlook — no watch
Columbus–Cincinnati–Buffalo ring	Isolated strong wind	SPC Marginal	Conditional
Long Island / coastal CT–RI–SE MA	Flash flood, urban ponding	WPC Slight ERO	Winding down late afternoon
Eastern KS / western MO	Training heavy rain overnight	WPC Slight ERO	Tonight into Monday morning
High Plains / western SD	Isolated hail and gusts	SPC isolated / Marginal	Afternoon–overnight scatter
Four Corners / S Rockies	Heavy rain on wet soils	WPC Marginal	Monsoon-style cells
Saturday KS–OK–TX / PA trees	Wind, hail, trees, poles	LSRs logged	Aftermath / tickets
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet Atlantic	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk without a watch is still a staffing problem. The corridor from northeast Ohio through southwest Pennsylvania into Rochester and Syracuse can produce a few 58–65 mph gust swaths, trees on service drops, and isolated hail even if coverage stays widely scattered. Saturday’s 84 mph Chanute gust and snapped poles in Neosho, Cherokee, Kingfisher, and Ochiltree counties are already claims. Southern New England and Appalachian runoff is extraction and drying, not a new wind line.

For teams in the Slight: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around on flooded Appalachian and Delmarva roads — Saturday and early-Sunday warnings already documented closed pavement.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center afternoon page showed no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert was moving west over the open eastern Pacific near 18.2°N, 132.7°W with 50 mph winds — not a U.S. land threat. Do not invent a watch that SPC has not issued. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio, Pennsylvania, or New York county, leftover flood tickets from Saturday, and a possible overnight rain pulse toward Kansas City.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook issued 12:29 p.m. CDT Sunday (valid 12 UTC Monday through 12 UTC Tuesday) places a Slight Risk from southeast Nebraska into western Iowa. Summary language: scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into early evening near Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Council Bluffs, and Ames, with a Marginal ring toward Sioux City, Waterloo, and Grand Island. That is Monday’s desk. Tonight’s Ohio Valley–New York band should weaken after dark.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Sunday, September 13, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (none valid); SPC current mesoscale discussions page (none in effect); SPC today’s storm reports (none received in the 13/1200–14/1159 UTC window at afternoon check) and September 12 LSR list; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0748 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page (no Atlantic tropical cyclones; TS Norbert over the eastern Pacific); National Weather Service watches/warnings text feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Sunday, September 13, 2026. Overnight into this morning the south-central Plains watch expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is no longer valid. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and a second Marginal Risk across the central and northern High Plains, valid 131300Z–141200Z.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Kansas wind and hail from last night, plus an afternoon wind corridor from Ohio into western New York and the Northeast if the front organizes. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Watch 667, covering portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday. That watch is expired. SPC’s 0744 AM CDT Sunday discussion (Gleason/Lyons) expects isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front by mid-afternoon (around 19–22Z) from parts of Ohio into western New York, then spreading quickly east across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for supercells at first and a marginal, isolated hail threat despite poor lapse rates aloft. Clusters and bowing segments with isolated damaging wind are the more likely mode once linear forcing of the front takes over. Confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities. Convection should weaken this evening as it moves into a less unstable airmass.

A separate Marginal Risk sits from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late afternoon, with elevated storms possible later tonight across western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley. Isolated hail and wind are the language there, not a watch.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast

This is today’s live outlook corridor, not a live watch. A surface cold front tracks east under a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet. Seasonably moist low-level air is in place, but poor mid-level lapse rates and cloud cover should keep instability marginal. That is why this is a Marginal Risk and not a Slight.

Cities and counties to watch this afternoon and evening: Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, and neighboring Ohio counties; Pittsburgh and the western Pennsylvania ridge; Buffalo and western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle. SPC lists a Day 1 Marginal footprint of about 163,000 square miles and roughly 22.7 million people, with Columbus, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Buffalo named in the risk-area list.

Bands of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms were already ongoing this morning across New Jersey into southern New York and New England. Most guidance keeps that activity elevated over land. Trends still get monitored for any surface-based instability over Long Island and southern New England.

Restoration read: wind first if cells organize after 3 p.m. local. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York strip before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Water is secondary unless a cell trains on ground already wet from Saturday’s Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic rain.

Hotspot 2 — Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Panhandle just-hit

Watch 667 is the overnight ticket, not today’s new watch. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from the 12 UTC Saturday–12 UTC Sunday window include 2.00-inch hail north of Coldwater in Comanche County, Kansas, and northwest of Wilmore in Kiowa County around 0010–0015 UTC; golf-ball hail earlier near Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; and measured wind of 84 mph at Chanute Martin Johnson Airport (KCNU) at 0545 UTC, with power outages and tree branches down in Chanute and utility poles near Galesburg in Neosho County. Additional measured gusts of 75 mph on the Kansas mesonet east-southeast of Acres in Clark County, 64 mph near Darrouzett in Lipscomb County, Texas, and snapped poles and a grain auger south of Perryton, Texas, sit in the same family.

Those are already claims. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The new work today, if it verifies after 13 UTC Sunday, is isolated damaging wind on the Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk plus isolated High Plains hail and wind.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains and leftover water

A closed mid- and upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning moves toward the northern Rockies and High Plains. Destabilization is limited. A narrow upslope corridor from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle is the afternoon cell area. Elevated storms may increase later tonight over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley, with isolated hail on the first development.

Saturday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook carried a Slight Risk over portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and southern Arizona, with the northern New Jersey–New York City–Long Island piece weighted toward late Saturday night into Sunday. That water is already in streets, small streams, and some interiors. Treat leftover flood statements as aftermath, not a new national headline, and check the current WPC Day 1 map and local NWS flood products before you assign a crew.

Just hit

Saturday’s Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk and Watch 667 produced the hail and wind listed above. Pennsylvania tree and wire reports from Saturday afternoon in Washington, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Indiana, Jefferson, and Greene counties are already on the books from the previous flood-and-wind pulse. A Flagler County, Florida, landspout near Palm Coast and an EF-0 survey east of Spring Grove in Surry County, Virginia, are local Saturday reports, not today’s organized corridor.

The National Hurricane Center discussion this morning shows no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land. The Atlantic remains quiet for a named-storm landfall. A central Atlantic wave is being monitored at low odds and is not a U.S. mainland desk item this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Upper OH Valley / Northeast	Isolated damaging wind, brief hail	SPC Marginal (Day 1 1300 UTC)	Outlook live; no watch
Central / northern High Plains	Isolated hail and wind	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon into tonight
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle	Wind to 84 mph, 2-inch hail overnight	Watch 667 expired	Just-hit / claims
OH Valley–Mid-Atlantic water	Flash flood leftover from Saturday Slight ERO	Local flood products	Aftermath; verify county
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling named storm	NHC quiet on the coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

An 84 mph airport gust and snapped poles are roof, siding, tree-on-structure, and service-drop work in Neosho, Comanche, Kiowa, Clark, and neighboring Kansas counties plus the Perryton, Texas, corridor. Two-inch hail is vehicle and roof claims on a narrow path. Today’s Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk is a thinner wind desk: isolated gusts, not a regional derecho. Staff it as county warnings, not a multi-state surge.

Water from Saturday night into Sunday morning along the I-95 and upper Ohio Valley axis is a 24–48 hour mold clock if it is already inside. Do not send the same crew to Chanute wind and a Pittsburgh or northern New Jersey water job without checking which county still has a warning.

What this is not

This is not a live severe thunderstorm watch and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this morning is leftover Kansas and Texas Panhandle wind and hail. The work this afternoon, if it comes, will be scattered wind along the front from Ohio into the Northeast and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Monday (Day 2) the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late afternoon into evening across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa — an isolated severe storm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster, near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, and Ames. Destabilization along a northward-retreating front remains the uncertainty. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s Marginal Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0814 UTC Sunday; most recently issued watch 667); SPC today’s storm reports for the 20260912 1200 UTC–20260913 1159 UTC window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook language covering Saturday into early Sunday; National Hurricane Center Atlantic tropical weather discussion 1215 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service warning text for Wichita, Dodge City, Amarillo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and neighboring offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 12 storm updates (Watch 667).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 667, Ohio Valley Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Saturday, September 12, 2026. The organized pulse is on the south-central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is in effect from 3:45 p.m. until 10:00 p.m. CDT for portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. Farther east, the Weather Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Tropical Storm Norbert is over the open eastern Pacific and is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven roof and siding work, isolated large hail, trees on service drops, and interior water where cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 667 covers southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT. Primary threat language from SPC: scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph, plus isolated very large hail to 2 inches. Tornado probability in the watch is low. The 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 3:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expanded the Slight Risk southwest across parts of western Oklahoma after satellite showed agitated cumulus and isolated initiation along a remnant outflow. Temperatures of 102–104°F south of the wind shift support severe-caliber downdrafts if clusters organize.

Mesoscale Discussion 2286, issued 2:52 p.m. CDT, flagged southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma as watch-likely before the watch went up. Most probable peak gusts in that discussion were 65–80 mph; most probable peak hail 1.50–2.50 inches. MD 2287 followed on a severe-potential, watch-possible track as storms tried to fill in.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. That language is flood first, wind second: 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water along I-95 from Richmond toward Philadelphia, with a higher-end Slight pocket in the upper Ohio Valley where flash-flood guidance is under 2 inches in northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Central Plains stay Marginal for excessive rain. Florida remains in a localized urban-flood environment on 2.0–2.25 inch precipitable water.

The official SPC Local Storm Report list for the 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday window was still empty as of mid-afternoon, which is expected this early in the convective day. SPC’s same-day report-trend plot on the homepage was already counting preliminary tornado, wind, and hail ticks as storms started to fire. Treat those as unofficial until they land on the LSR page.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase and intensify near an outflow boundary across Oklahoma and near a front across Kansas and the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. SPC notes a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,500 J/kg MLCAPE, 30–40 kt of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates that support isolated 2-inch hail before storms cluster. Higher-based convection in the hot mixed layer favors wind over tornadoes.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, and Emporia in Kansas; Enid, Ponca City, and the Oklahoma City metro fringe; Alva to Chandler along the watch axis; Amarillo and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Neighboring offices: Dodge City, Wichita, Norman, Tulsa, Amarillo.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and glass/roof crews before dark. A 75–80 mph gust on a well-mixed 104°F afternoon is a tree-and-roof ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic flood pulse

This is the water desk, not the watch desk. WPC holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the upper Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic. HREF signals in the morning discussion showed moderate-to-high chances of 3-hour and 6-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and 20–40 percent chances of 3-hour totals over 2 inches from the Richmond area late Saturday into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York City metro and lower Long Island for late Saturday night into Sunday.

SPC keeps a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind with loosely organized clusters in the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. That is secondary to the flood overlay.

Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania; northern West Virginia; Columbus–Dayton corridor on the wind-marginal fringe; Richmond, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the I-95 urban core Saturday night.

Restoration read: extraction and drying if cells train. Urban streets, underpasses, and small streams fail first. Do not treat this as the same story as Watch 667. Different hazard, different crew mix.

Hotspot 3 — North Georgia leftover water and Plains scatter

National Weather Service Peachtree City issued multiple Flash Flood Warnings this morning for Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Carroll, and Paulding counties, including Atlanta, Marietta, Sandy Springs, Douglasville, and Villa Rica. Radar-indicated totals of 1–4 inches were already on the ground in those products, with additional 1–3 inches possible in the warned windows. Some of those warnings expired by mid-afternoon; the water is still in the street and in the buildings. That is already a ticket, not a new watch.

Elsewhere, isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible on the edges of the Slight Risk into the Ozarks and on the hot High Plains. Florida stays a local urban-flood and lightning desk on deep tropical moisture. A Flash Flood Watch remains up over the Paradise and Hagen burn scar in northeast Oregon and southeast Washington from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening — debris-flow country, not a CAT event.

Just hit

Friday’s official LSR window (12 UTC September 11 through 12 UTC September 12) is the last closed book. Preliminary reports included a tornado touchdown 7 miles northeast of Artichoke, Minnesota, plus golf-ball hail near Artichoke and Alberta in Stevens County, Minnesota. Wind and hail also hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington–Mansfield trees, poles, and up to 1.75-inch hail), Bexar County, Texas (golf-ball hail near Converse and Kirby), and a long tree-down swath through South Carolina, Virginia, and North Carolina. Those are already claims. Today’s new work, if it verifies after 12 UTC Saturday, is Watch 667 wind and hail plus Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic water.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle	Damaging wind to 80 mph, isolated 2-inch hail	Slight + Watch 667 to 10 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Ohio Valley / Mid-Atlantic	Flash flood, training heavy rain, isolated wind	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; SPC Marginal wind	Tonight into Sunday morning
North Georgia metro	Urban flash flood leftover from morning warnings	FFW earlier today	Aftermath / still in street
Ozarks / central Plains fringe	Isolated hail and wind	SPC Marginal	Scattered
NE Oregon / SE Washington burn scar	Flash flood / debris flow	Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening	Local hydrologic
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet (Norbert open EPAC)

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 65–80 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Isolated 2-inch hail is broken glass and pitted panels in a narrow swath, not a statewide event. Heavy rain on the Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Atlanta-metro water from this morning is already inside some buildings.

For teams in or near Watch 667: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Oklahoma wind and Pittsburgh water without checking which county actually has a warning now.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is expected to dissipate east-southeast of Hawaii by midweek and is not a CONUS or Hawaii landfall problem on this desk. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind or hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic cells train, leftover urban water in metro Atlanta. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday, SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk of strong storms with small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging wind from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Coverage is uncertain. Monday, Day 3 adds a small Slight Risk across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 667 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all date-stamped Saturday, September 12, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667; Mesoscale Discussions 2286 and 2287; SPC today and September 11 Local Storm Reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 3:39 a.m. EDT; National Weather Service warning text including Peachtree City flash-flood products; National Hurricane Center public advisory on Tropical Storm Norbert (open eastern Pacific, no U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Morning desk for this calendar day: Saturday morning Storm Updates. Related desk: Friday afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk, Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Saturday, September 12, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse that ran eastern South Dakota into Minnesota has expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666 is down. No convective watches are valid as of mid-morning UTC. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook has upgraded the afternoon and evening corridor to a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is large hail and damaging wind on the Plains, plus interior water where Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight vs what is live this morning

Watch 666 covered southwestern into north-central Minnesota and eastern South Dakota from 6:40 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday. Primary language was scattered large hail, isolated very large hail to two inches, damaging gusts to 70 mph, and a tornado or two if a supercell held together early in the watch. That watch is expired. SPC current watches page as of 12:03 UTC Saturday: no watches valid. Last issued watch remains 666.

What is live this morning is the outlook, not a watch. The 0748 AM CDT Saturday Day 1 convective outlook is valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday. Headline: there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains. Summary language: isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe or damaging winds may occur across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and evening. A separate Marginal Risk corridor remains over the upper Ohio Valley for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon.

WPC’s current Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook, issued 339 AM EDT Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Precipitable water of 2.0 to 2.25 inches is forecast to stream north along the I-95 corridor from Richmond and Washington toward Baltimore and Philadelphia by Saturday evening, then into the New York metro and lower Long Island late Saturday night. That late-night northern end of the slight risk is expected to linger into Sunday (Day 2).

Hotspot 1 — Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into the Ozarks

This is today’s severe ticket. Elevated storms persisted overnight into early morning across southern Nebraska into eastern Kansas and western Missouri on a modest low-level jet. SPC expects that activity to weaken through the remainder of the morning, with some guidance still showing additional development along outflow across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A fairly strong cold front is draped from eastern Colorado into Kansas and northwest Missouri. That boundary is the afternoon focus.

Along and south of the front, a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000–3500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon from the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear of about 30–40 kt is enough for organized updrafts. Isolated robust development along the front is favored around 21–23Z once convective temperatures are reached. Sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large hail, including isolated two-inch-plus stones. Higher-based convection from the eastern Panhandles into southwest and south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma favors scattered severe downdrafts. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. Clustering later this afternoon and evening remains uncertain, but isolated damaging wind may persist into much of Oklahoma and the Ozarks if upstream storms in Kansas and western Missouri stay organized.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Emporia, Liberal, and Derby in the Slight Risk core; Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Kansas City sit in the surrounding Marginal Risk. Restoration read: hail first in the Slight Risk, then wind. Stage tarps and roof kits before mid-afternoon local. If a cell trains on the same ZIP, treat it as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor

This is today’s flood ticket, not the hail ticket. SPC keeps only a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind across parts of the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon in a narrow corridor of filtered heating between denser clouds over Ohio and a stationary boundary to the east. Mid-level lapse rates stay poor. The bigger operational signal is WPC. HREF signals include moderate-to-high chances of three- and six-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and a 20–40 percent chance of three-hour QPF over two inches from the Richmond area late Saturday afternoon, then from northeast Maryland into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York metro and lower Long Island, with that northern end weighted late Saturday night into Sunday.

Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, the upper Ohio Valley; Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, northern New Jersey, New York City, and lower Long Island on the late-day and overnight rain axis. Restoration read: urban street flooding, low crossings, and wet drywall where cells train. The 24–48 hour mold clock starts when water is inside, not when the outlook expires.

Hotspot 3 — Just-hit Upper Midwest and leftover Arizona water

Friday evening’s Slight Risk over far eastern South Dakota into Minnesota verified locally. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday to 1159 UTC Saturday window include a tornado touchdown reported seven miles northeast of Artichoke in Stevens County, Minnesota, around 0051 UTC, plus downed power poles eight miles south of Alberta on County Highway 9. Golf-ball hail (1.75 inches) was reported east and south of Artichoke and south of Alberta. Half-dollar hail fell near Dumont, Herman, Norcross, and Toronto, South Dakota. Wind damage and trees on lines were reported around Chokio, Embarrass and Britt in St. Louis County, Whipholt and Longville in Cass County, and Blue Grass in Wadena County, with one report noting possible tornado damage and large trees blocking County Road 23.

Separate Friday hail and wind clusters hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington and Mansfield, golf-ball hail and trees and poles down), Bexar County, Texas after 0310 UTC (golf-ball hail near Converse), and a long tree-down corridor through South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Arizona flash-flood warnings fired Friday evening over Gila, Coconino, Navajo, Cochise, and Graham Counties, including fire-scar drainages. Those Arizona warnings were evening products; treat them as just-hit water, not today’s new Slight Risk.

Just hit

Minnesota and eastern South Dakota are yesterday’s tickets: hail, trees, poles, and at least one reported tornado touchdown that still needs a damage survey, not a new watch. North Texas and San Antonio-area hail are Friday afternoon and overnight work already on the books. The Carolinas and southern Virginia tree-down scatter is the same. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Kansas–Oklahoma hail and wind corridor plus localized flash flooding from the Ohio Valley onto the Mid-Atlantic I-95 axis tonight.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern KS / northern OK / Panhandles / Ozarks	Large to very large hail, damaging wind, isolated 75+ mph gusts	SPC Slight (core) + Marginal surround	Outlook live; no watch yet
Upper Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging wind; heavy rain / flash flood	SPC Marginal + WPC Slight ERO	Afternoon increase
Mid-Atlantic I-95 (RIC–DC–BAL–PHL–NYC)	Training heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight ERO	Late afternoon through Saturday night
Eastern SD / west-central and northern MN	Hail, trees, poles, reported tornado	Watch 666 expired 10 p.m. CDT Fri	Aftermath / just-hit
North Texas / San Antonio metro	Friday hail and wind	Local LSRs	Aftermath
Southeast AZ fire scars / washes	Flash flood from Friday cells	Expired FFWs	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: formation not expected next 7 days in Atlantic	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Two-inch hail is roof and auto glass work in the Slight Risk counties. Gusts of 60–75 mph are siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A reported tornado near Artichoke, Minnesota, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic heavy rain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Wichita hail and Pittsburgh flooding without checking which county actually has a warning now.

For teams in or near the Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center Atlantic outlook at 800 AM EDT Saturday: tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Norbert is well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is not a U.S. land threat. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a wind-thrown tree in the upper Ohio Valley, a flooded underpass where Mid-Atlantic cells train. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk Sunday afternoon and evening from western New England through the upper Ohio Valley for small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. Day 3 is also Marginal. Fire-weather outlooks are Elevated today and Sunday. The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Slight Risk is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 12, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0748 AM CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; most recently issued Watch 666); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260911 1200 UTC–20260912 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 339 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Weather Service watch/warning text feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 11 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Upper Midwest Slight Risk, VA–NC Wind Scatter — Friday, September 11, 2026

This is a live Friday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Friday, September 11, 2026. The organized pulse is still ahead of most radar cores: the Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook keeps a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest for late this afternoon and tonight. No convective watches are currently valid. Mesoscale Discussion 2281, issued 1937 UTC, flags a lower-end damaging-wind threat over parts of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina with watch issuance unlikely. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is in the Eastern Pacific well west-southwest of Baja California and poses no threat to U.S. land. Restoration exposure this afternoon is wind, water, hail, and trees: large hail and damaging wind in the Minnesota–northeast South Dakota Slight Risk, isolated wind in the Virginia–North Carolina scatter, flash-flood rates in northern Minnesota and Santa Cruz County, Arizona, plus residual hail and pole work from last night’s Texas Panhandle event. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are in effect as of the SPC watch page update Friday afternoon. The most recently issued watch remains Watch 665 from earlier in the week. Today’s official Local Storm Reports page (1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday) still shows no new tornado, hail, or wind reports in that window. Last night’s reports sit on the September 10 LSR page.

SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook (forecaster Wendt, issued 0300 PM CDT) is mostly on track from the morning package. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail (some 2+ inches), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest. Initiation farther south into the central Plains remains more uncertain and conditional. Marginal wind/hail probabilities were extended into more of central Kansas for overnight conditional storms as the cold front reaches northern Kansas Saturday morning.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC, valid 16Z Friday–12Z Saturday) keeps Slight Risk language over far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota. The 16Z update expanded a Marginal Risk eastward across more of the Florida Panhandle for 1–2+ inch local rates. Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast, and Southern Appalachians stay in the more widespread thunderstorm/flash-flood conversation at Marginal intensity.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Midwest Slight Risk (northeast SD into western and northern MN)

This is still the primary organized severe corridor. A mid-level shortwave and cold front support a narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints, moderate destabilization, and 35–45 kt of deep-layer shear. Initial supercells favor large hail, isolated 2+ inches possible. Mode should trend toward clusters and bowing segments this evening as the low-level jet strengthens, shifting the main hazard toward damaging wind. A couple of tornadoes remain in the official language if any cells stay semi-discrete into early evening. The wind threat is expected to wane with eastward extent into western Wisconsin late tonight as the instability corridor stays narrow.

Cities and counties to watch: Watertown and Aberdeen vicinity in South Dakota; Willmar, St. Cloud, Fergus Falls, Brainerd, Hibbing, Duluth, and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Restoration read: hail first, then wind and trees after dark. Stage roof tarps, generators, and tree crews on the Minnesota side of the Slight Risk before evening clustering. Photograph only in remaining daylight if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Virginia and northern North Carolina (MD 2281)

Mesoscale Discussion 2281 (valid 1937–2200 UTC) covers parts of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. A stationary boundary from far northeastern North Carolina into south-central Virginia is the focus. Moderate surface-based buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates support loosely organized clusters capable of locally damaging gusts of 55–70 mph and isolated/marginally severe hail up to about 1.25 inches. Watch probability is 20 percent — watch unlikely.

Offices in the attention line: AKQ, MHX, LWX, RAH, RNK. Restoration read: treat this as scattered wind and tree work, not a regional line. One strong cluster can still drop a tree on a service drop or peel a section of roof. Do not staff it like Watch 665 from Wednesday.

Hotspot 3 — WPC flood pockets: northern Minnesota and far southern Arizona

The same shortwave that supports the Upper Midwest Slight Risk also carries a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over northern Minnesota. Official discussion cites precipitable water in the upper climatological percentile, possible training near the warm front, 1–2 inches (locally up to 3 inches), and rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour Friday afternoon and evening.

Far southern Arizona, especially the Santa Cruz County corridor, remains the other Slight Risk flood pocket on monsoon moisture with precipitable water above 1.5 inches. HREF guidance earlier today showed moderate-to-high chances of 3-hour QPF exceeding flash-flood guidance there. The Florida Panhandle was added to the broader Marginal flood language on the 16Z update for coastal 1–2+ inch rates.

Restoration read: northern Minnesota can be a dual ticket — hail/wind plus interior water if cores train. Southern Arizona is a flash-flood and poor-drainage desk. Florida Panhandle is localized urban flooding, not the national headline.

Just hit

Thursday evening into early Friday remains the live claim pile. Official September 10 LSRs include 2.25-inch hail near Lake Tanglewood and 2.00-inch hail at Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County, Texas; 1.75-inch and 1.25-inch stones around Lake Tanglewood and Pantex; an 87 mph thunderstorm gust 1 SE of Colby, Thomas County, Kansas; 67 mph near Pantex; 65 mph at Plainview, Hale County, Texas, with snapped power poles, an overturned construction trailer, damaged vehicles, and fences down; plus additional 60–62 mph gusts on the Texas South Plains. Residual high-water work from overnight Flash Flood Warnings in north-central West Virginia and southeastern Ohio is still on yesterday morning’s books.

No Atlantic tropical cyclone is present. NHC’s 200 PM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook states tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America during the next 7 days. Tropical Storm Norbert, 65 mph as of the late-morning Eastern Pacific package, is moving west well offshore and is not a U.S. land threat.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
NE SD / western & northern MN	Large hail (2+” possible), damaging wind, couple tornadoes	SPC Slight	Late afternoon–tonight
Southern VA / northern NC	Locally damaging gusts 55–70 mph, isolated hail	MD 2281, watch unlikely	Remainder of afternoon
Northern MN / far southern AZ	Flash-flood rates, training possible in MN	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening
TX Panhandle / Colby KS	Hail to 2.25″, 60–87 mph gusts, poles/vehicles	Sept 10 LSRs	Just-hit / recovery
Central Plains / central KS overnight	Conditional hail/wind	SPC Marginal (expanded 20Z)	Evening–overnight if storms fire
Mid-South / TN Valley / Carolinas	Pulse damaging gusts, heavy rain	SPC Marginal	Scattered
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: no TC next 7 days	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

The Texas Panhandle and Colby, Kansas, hits are already tickets: hail roofs and vehicles in Randall and Carson counties, wind-driven pole and debris work around Plainview and Colby. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Upper Midwest Slight Risk after peak heating — hail swaths first, then tree-and-wire clusters. Northern Minnesota can add interior water on the same shift. Virginia–North Carolina is a local wind desk, not a watch-scale deployment.

Stage Minnesota tarps and tree crews before dark. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to both the Minnesota Slight Risk and last night’s Texas recovery without checking which county actually has a warning now.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no live tornado or severe thunderstorm watch as of this afternoon package. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Minnesota or South Dakota county, a wind-downed tree in southern Virginia, a flooded wash in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, or leftover pole work in Hale County, Texas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday’s Day 2 Convective Outlook (1730 UTC, forecaster Jewell) drops to Marginal over parts of the Central Plains and from Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Widely scattered strong-to-severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening over parts of the Central Plains, with isolated activity also possible in the Upper Ohio Valley. Critical fire-weather conditions remain in today’s fire outlook. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Upper Midwest Slight Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 2000 UTC Friday, September 11, 2026; SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2281 issued 1937 UTC; SPC current watches page (no watches valid); SPC Local Storm Reports for 11 September (none in the new 12Z window as of this writing) and 10 September (Texas Panhandle and Colby, Kansas); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1601 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 200 PM EDT Friday; Eastern Pacific package on Tropical Storm Norbert. Morning desk on the same calendar day: Friday morning Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. NWS warning text feed: national WWA text.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Upper Midwest Slight Risk, Texas Panhandle Hail and Wind Overnight — Friday, September 11, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Friday, September 11, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse was limited and mostly High Plains–oriented. No convective watches are currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center has elevated a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the Upper Midwest later today, with a broader Marginal Risk covering the central Plains into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota, with localized flash-flood potential still lingering from overnight activity in the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is active in the Eastern Pacific well offshore and poses no threat to U.S. land. Restoration exposure today centers on residual wind and hail damage from the Texas Panhandle overnight, lingering water in West Virginia and Ohio counties, and the new Slight Risk corridor from far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are in effect as of the 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook. The most recent watch was Watch 665 from Wednesday evening. Overnight Local Storm Reports show a concentrated hail and wind event across the Texas Panhandle and nearby High Plains counties, with measured gusts to 87 mph near Colby, Kansas, and hail up to 2.25 inches near Lake Tanglewood in Randall County, Texas. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings were issued overnight for portions of eastern Arkansas, north-central West Virginia, southeastern Ohio, and the Virginia Eastern Shore; most of those products have expired or are in their final hours this morning.

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook highlights a Slight Risk across parts of the Upper Midwest—primarily far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota—for large hail (isolated 2+ inches possible), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. A broader Marginal Risk extends south into the central Plains and eastward across the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia for more disorganized pulse-type storms capable of occasional damaging gusts.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Midwest Slight Risk (northeast SD into western/northern MN)

This is the primary organized severe corridor for today. A mid-level shortwave trough ejecting across the northern Plains will support a surface low and cold front. Moderate destabilization and 35–45 kt deep-layer shear favor initial supercells capable of large hail, with a transition to clusters and bowing segments producing damaging winds this evening. A low-end tornado threat exists if any cells remain discrete into the early evening when low-level shear increases. Confidence is higher in the far northeast SD–western MN axis than farther south into the central Plains, where initiation remains more conditional.

Cities and counties to watch: Aberdeen and Watertown areas in South Dakota; St. Cloud, Willmar, Duluth, Superior, Hibbing, and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Restoration read: stage for hail and wind. Large hail can produce concentrated roof and vehicle damage; clustering storms raise the tree-and-wire risk after dark. Photograph in remaining daylight only if safe.

Hotspot 2 — Texas Panhandle and High Plains overnight hits

Thursday evening into early Friday produced the most significant Local Storm Reports of the overnight window. Hail reports included 2.25-inch stones near Lake Tanglewood (Randall County, TX), 2.00-inch at Timbercreek Canyon, and multiple 1.00–1.75-inch reports around Pantex and Lake Tanglewood. Wind reports included an 87 mph gust 1 SE of Colby (Thomas County, KS), 67 mph near Pantex, 65 mph near Plainview (Hale County, TX) with snapped power poles and overturned vehicles, and additional 60–62 mph gusts across the Texas South Plains. Construction trailers and fences were damaged in the Plainview area.

Restoration read: this is already a just-hit desk. Hail-damaged roofs and vehicles in Randall, Carson, and Hale counties, plus wind-driven tree and pole work around Colby and Plainview, will generate same-day claims. Coordinate with local emergency management for access if power poles are down.

Hotspot 3 — Residual flood pulse (Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, eastern Arkansas)

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Slight Risk for far southern Arizona (Santa Cruz County area) and northern Minnesota. Overnight, Flash Flood Warnings were active across Randolph County, Arkansas; multiple north-central West Virginia counties (Braxton, Gilmer, Upshur, Lewis, Roane, Calhoun, Ritchie, Wirt, Jackson, Wood); southeastern Ohio (Gallia, Jackson, Meigs, Vinton); and southern Accomack County, Virginia. Several of those products noted observed flooding, including impassable sections of US 33 near Glenville, West Virginia, and residual high water into Friday morning.

Restoration read: water extraction and drying are already on the books in the warned West Virginia and Ohio counties. Northern Minnesota joins the slight-risk language later today as the same system that supports the severe threat also produces 1–2 inch (locally 3 inch) rainfall amounts with rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour. Southern Arizona remains a monsoon-style flash-flood pocket.

Just hit

Wednesday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced residual tree and wind damage that carried into Thursday. Thursday’s Marginal Risk corridor from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic generated the Texas Panhandle hail/wind event detailed above and scattered overnight flood warnings. Iowa river flooding from earlier in the week continues to recede in places. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone is present; Tropical Storm Norbert remains well out in the Eastern Pacific.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NE SD / western & northern MN	Large hail (2+” possible), damaging wind, couple tornadoes	SPC Slight	Late afternoon–tonight
TX Panhandle / High Plains	Hail to 2.25″, 60–87 mph gusts, pole/vehicle damage	Overnight LSRs	Just-hit / recovery
Central WV / SE OH / E AR	Flash flooding, residual high water	Expired/expiring FFWs + Flood Warnings	Aftermath / still draining
Far southern AZ	Flash flood rates	WPC Slight	Afternoon cells
Mid-South / TN Valley / Carolinas / VA	Occasional damaging gusts, pulse storms	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Overnight hail and wind in the Texas Panhandle is already producing roof, vehicle, and pole claims. Residual flash flooding in West Virginia and southeastern Ohio is extraction-and-dry work with a 24–48 hour mold clock on any wet drywall. Today’s new Slight Risk in the Upper Midwest is a classic late-afternoon to evening supercell-to-cluster transition: large hail first, then damaging wind as storms grow upscale. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for the Minnesota corridor before the evening transition. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Minnesota or South Dakota county, residual high water in a West Virginia hollow, or a wind-damaged construction site in the Texas South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday the convective outlook drops to Marginal. Critical fire-weather conditions are also noted by SPC for today over parts of the West. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Upper Midwest Slight Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1226Z Friday, September 11, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 10 September period; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832Z; National Weather Service warning text for Amarillo, Lubbock, Charleston WV, Little Rock, Wakefield, and neighboring offices. No active convective watches as of 1205Z.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk, Ohio Valley Flood Pulse — Thursday, September 10, 2026

This is a live Thursday afternoon snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Thursday, September 10, 2026. The organized severe corridor has broadened and weakened relative to Wednesday’s Slight Risk and Watch 665. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the southern High Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast, valid through early Friday morning. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, with Marginal flood risk farther west and southwest.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is primarily sporadic damaging wind (roof, siding, trees on service drops), isolated large hail on the High Plains, and flash-flood water where cells train over the Ohio Valley–Appalachians corridor. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

No convective watches are currently valid. The most recent watch (Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665) expired overnight. SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook (issued 2:40 p.m. CDT) highlights sporadic damaging wind gusts from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening, plus isolated large hail over south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and possibly the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Mesoscale Discussion 2279 (issued ~2:15 p.m. CDT) covers northeast Arkansas into parts of Tennessee and Kentucky: widely scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds, watch unlikely.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1554 UTC) keeps a Slight Risk over the upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians—eastern Kentucky and West Virginia remain the core area of highest QPF and training potential. Marginal Risk areas cover parts of the Mid-Atlantic, south-central Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Southwest (Arizona–New Mexico into southern California higher terrain).

Hotspot 1 — Northeast Arkansas into Kentucky and Tennessee

MD 2279 flags the live severe potential. Storms developing along and south of a surface boundary in a hot, humid air mass (upper 80s to mid-90s, PWAT near 2 inches, MLCAPE over 1,500 J/kg). Mid-level flow of 25–30 kt may support a few organized multicell clusters. Primary hazard is locally damaging wind gusts (most probable peak 55–70 mph). Coverage of severe is expected to stay limited; no watch is anticipated.

Cities and counties to watch: Jonesboro and northeast Arkansas counties; western and central Kentucky (including areas near the Ohio River); western and middle Tennessee.

Restoration read: Wind first—stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. If a cell trains or produces heavy rain on the WPC slight-risk overlay, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians (flood)

WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall centers on eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, with a minor eastward expansion into east-central West Virginia on the latest update. Anomalous precipitable water (near 99th percentile), MUCAPE >1,000 J/kg, and potential for training along a front parallel to the mid-level flow support 2–3 inch per hour rates. Soils have been drier of late, but 1-hour flash-flood guidance around 2 inches still leaves room for scattered flash flooding on urban streets, small streams, and low-lying areas.

Some storms are expected to spill east across northern Virginia, northern Maryland, and the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor this evening—progressive but still moisture-laden.

Restoration read: Water is the ticket tonight if cells train. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water enters a structure. Photograph damage in remaining daylight only if safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southern High Plains and residual Kansas–Missouri wind damage

Isolated large hail remains possible over the Raton Mesa vicinity (south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico) and portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles under the Marginal Risk. Farther east, residual tree and wire damage from Wednesday evening’s line across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is already on the books. Local Storm Reports from the overnight period include multiple 60–70+ mph gusts and tree/wire damage across southeast Kansas into west-central Missouri and scattered Ohio counties.

Restoration read: High Plains is today’s new hail/wind cells; Kansas–Missouri–Ohio is yesterday’s wind swath still generating claims. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has active warnings now.

Just hit

Wednesday’s Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 (northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western New York) produced multiple wind reports—trees and utility lines down across Erie, Stark, Coshocton, and neighboring counties, plus scattered Kansas and Missouri damage. Those are already tickets. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the AR–KY–TN wind corridor plus localized flash flooding under the WPC Slight Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
NE AR / KY / TN	Damaging wind, lightning	Marginal + MD 2279	Live cells, watch unlikely
Upper OH Valley / central Appalachians	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Tonight into Friday morning
Southern High Plains / Raton Mesa	Isolated large hail, gusty wind	Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
KS / MO / OH residual	Tree/wire damage from Wednesday	Aftermath	Claims already open
Mid-Atlantic spillover	Heavy rain, localized flood	WPC Marginal	Evening progressive storms
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Marginal-risk wind is still roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work when a cell organizes. Hail on the High Plains is vehicle and roof dents. The Ohio Valley–Appalachians flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water enters. Residual Wednesday damage is already generating calls across the Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor and the Kansas–Missouri line.

For teams near the MD 2279 area or the WPC Slight Risk: stage before the densest afternoon heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this afternoon and evening, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Arkansas or Kentucky county, a flooded intersection where eastern Kentucky or West Virginia cells train, leftover tree damage from Wednesday’s Ohio–PA activity. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Friday (Day 2) the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from central Nebraska into the Upper Midwest late afternoon into Friday night—damaging wind, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible as an upper shortwave and surface front organize. Later in the period a Marginal Risk appears on Day 3. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, September 10, 2026) and Mesoscale Discussion 2279; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1554 UTC); SPC Local Storm Reports for the overnight and early-day period; National Weather Service warning text. Related desk: Thursday morning Storm Updates and Wednesday afternoon Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Thursday, September 10, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Thursday, September 10, 2026. Overnight the organized severe pulse from Wednesday’s Slight Risk and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 across northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York has largely expired. The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 outlook has settled into a broad Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms stretching from the southern High Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. The primary threat language is sporadic damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail possible over south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma–Texas Panhandles.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms. No named tropical cyclone currently threatens U.S. land. Restoration exposure today is residual wind and tree work from last night’s Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor, plus fresh flood and wind potential where the cold front and residual moisture continue to fire cells from the southern Plains eastward. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. Watch 665, the last active severe thunderstorm watch covering the Upper Ohio Valley and Lake Erie counties, has expired. SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook places a Marginal Risk across a long corridor from the southern High Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong daytime heating is expected south of residual cloud and overnight storms, with temperatures into the 90s to near 100°F over the southern Plains and upper 80s to mid-90s farther east. That buoyancy, coupled with the residual cold front and outflow boundaries, supports thunderstorms that can produce isolated severe gusts.

The Weather Prediction Center’s updated Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12Z Thursday–12Z Friday) carries a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over a focused area from roughly southeast Ohio into central Kentucky and adjacent portions of West Virginia and Indiana. Broader Marginal Risk areas cover parts of the southern Plains, the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, the Southwest monsoon corridor, and a pocket in the Gulf coastal states.

Hotspot 1 — Residual Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York wind corridor

Wednesday evening’s Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced a series of severe thunderstorm warnings and local storm reports of tree and power-line damage across northern and central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and adjacent counties. Preliminary LSRs include tree and utility damage near Huron and Hartville, Ohio; Edinboro, Pennsylvania; and Chester, West Virginia, among others. The organized severe threat has moved on, but the restoration desk for those counties is still active: downed trees, service drops, and isolated roof or siding work from 50–70 mph gusts.

Cities and counties still in the aftermath window: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Mansfield, and surrounding northern Ohio counties; Erie, Crawford, and northwest Pennsylvania; the northern West Virginia panhandle. Stage remaining tree and tarp crews for daylight surveys and carrier documentation.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri flood pulse

Overnight and early this morning, training storms along and south of the cold front have produced locally heavy rainfall across southeast Kansas into portions of western and central Missouri. National Weather Service offices have issued Flood Warnings and Advisories for Allen, Labette, and Montgomery Counties in Kansas (into midday) and adjacent Missouri counties. Radar-estimated amounts of 1–4 inches, with rates of 1–3 inches per hour in stronger cores, have already produced flooding of low-lying roads, creeks, and poor-drainage areas. WPC’s Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the day is focused farther east into the Ohio Valley, but the Kansas–Missouri corridor remains the live water desk this morning.

Restoration read: extraction and drying work where water entered structures overnight. Photograph damage in daylight, document water lines, and treat any interior water as a same-day priority before the mold clock advances.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk this afternoon–evening

SPC expects the Marginal Risk corridor to re-fire with daytime heating. The primary hazard is sporadic damaging wind gusts from multicell clusters and short line segments along the residual front and outflow boundaries. Isolated large hail is possible over the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Panhandles. Vertical shear is modest overall but sufficient for organized bowing segments farther east where buoyancy is lower but mid-level flow is stronger.

Key population centers under the Marginal Risk umbrella include parts of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, Memphis, Nashville, and the Washington, D.C., corridor, though the risk is scattered rather than continuous. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements are the expected mode of action rather than new watches.

Just hit — overnight LSRs

Preliminary Local Storm Reports from the 1200 UTC September 9 – 1159 UTC September 10 window include:

1.75-inch hail 8 SE of Colorado City, Huerfano County, Colorado (0600 UTC).
Wind gusts of 72 mph near Booker, Lipscomb County, Texas; 70 mph SSE of Mayfield, Sumner County, Kansas; 73 mph near Patagonia, Arizona; and multiple 58–78 mph readings in the Arizona–New Mexico border country and western Kansas overnight.
Numerous tree, limb, and power-line damage reports across northern and central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western West Virginia, and a long swath of eastern Kansas into western Missouri (Baldwin City, Wellington, Clinton, Holden, and surrounding towns).

No tornado reports were received in the preliminary data for this period. All reports remain preliminary and subject to verification.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Northern OH / NW PA / western NY	Residual wind / tree / power damage	Watch 665 expired	Aftermath / just-hit
SE Kansas / south-central Missouri	Flash flood, training heavy rain	Flood Warnings / Advisories active	Live water desk
Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic	Damaging wind, isolated hail	SPC Marginal Risk	Afternoon–evening re-fire
SE Colorado / NE New Mexico / Panhandles	Isolated large hail, strong wind	SPC Marginal (hail-focused)	Afternoon terrain storms
Ohio Valley / central KY (WPC)	Excessive rainfall / flash flood	WPC Slight Risk	Day 1 outlook
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind damage from Wednesday night is already on the books in the Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor—tree removal, roof tarps, and service restoration. Kansas–Missouri flood work is the fresh ticket this morning: extract standing water, document, and start drying before temperatures climb. This afternoon’s Marginal Risk is scattered; the expected mode is isolated warnings rather than a continuous line. Stage for wind and isolated hail in the southern Plains and for additional water if cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley.

Property owners in just-hit counties should photograph damage in remaining daylight if safe, contact the carrier, and begin extraction the same day if water is inside. Teams working the Kansas–Missouri flood pulse should treat every interior water job as time-sensitive.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products show no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin threatening U.S. land; Tropical Storms Lowell and Norbert remain well offshore in the Pacific. The work today is local: residual wind swaths from Wednesday night, flash-flood pockets in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, and scattered severe gusts under a broad Marginal Risk this afternoon and evening.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 outlook already carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of Nebraska into the Upper Midwest on Friday. The cold front will continue to shift east and south, keeping a wet and occasionally strong storm pattern across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the weekend. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal Risk is the end of the corridor.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1300 UTC Thursday, September 10, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 1200 UTC September 9–1159 UTC September 10 period; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid as of early Thursday); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and 94e points text; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text from Wichita, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlooks confirming no Atlantic threats to U.S. land.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 9 storm updates — Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio–Pennsylvania–Western New York Slight Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

This is a live Wednesday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Wednesday, September 9, 2026. The organized pulse is east of yesterday’s Iowa–Nebraska corridor. A Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms covers central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 is in effect until 11:00 p.m. EDT. Farther west, the Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, with smaller flood-risk pockets in southeast Colorado and the Arizona–New Mexico border country.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, trees on service drops, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 665 covers western New York, northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and adjacent Lake Erie waters. Primary threat language is scattered damaging wind gusts to about 65 mph. SPC and NWS discussion also leaves room for a brief tornado, especially if a storm anchors on the surface boundary near the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York border. Hail is secondary.

A cold front still stretches on the order of a thousand miles from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes toward western New York. That is the same family of storms that wet Iowa and eastern Nebraska on Tuesday. Today the better-organized severe corridor is the eastern Great Lakes. Isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, with a more disorganized, outflow-dominant mode west of the watch.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western New York

This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase through late afternoon and evening in a warm, humid boundary layer with enough shear for organized multicells, short line segments, and transient supercells. Mesoscale discussion language from mid-afternoon: a few damaging gusts over the next few hours, brief tornado not ruled out.

Cities and counties to watch: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Parma, Mansfield, Lorain and Medina counties in Ohio; Erie, Crawford, Warren, Mercer, and neighboring northwest Pennsylvania counties; Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany in western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark. If a cell trains or a warning includes heavy rain, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, plus leftover Iowa water

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook keeps a Slight Risk from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri. Guidance still supports training west-to-east overnight and 1-inch-per-hour rates in the better cores. Urban streets, low water crossings, and small streams are the first failures. A smaller slight-risk pocket sits over southeast Colorado early Thursday. Southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico stays in the same excessive-rainfall slight-risk language on monsoon-style cells.

Iowa is not the new Slight Risk today, but it is still a just-hit desk. Flood warnings remain on pieces of the Des Moines system, including the Raccoon River at Des Moines and Walnut Creek. Tuesday’s rain is still in the channel. That is extraction and drying work already on the books, not a new watch.

Restoration read: Kansas–Missouri is tonight’s flood ticket if cells stall. Iowa is yesterday’s water still moving through town. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central Plains and Southwest scatter

Widely scattered slow-moving storms over hot, humid air in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas can still throw damaging gusts even when they stay below watch criteria. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements have already fired in the Texas Panhandle and other High Plains counties this afternoon. Southern Arizona and New Mexico higher terrain can produce heavy rain and strong outflow on the same moisture axis as the WPC slight risk.

Southwest Florida holds a marginal heavy-rain pocket in tropical moisture. That is a local urban-flood and lightning desk, not the national headline.

Just hit

Tuesday’s Iowa–Nebraska Slight Risk and the Kauai flood-and-outage work after Hurricane Lowell are yesterday’s tickets. Lowell continues to move away from the islands; there is no new U.S. mainland tropical landfall in the current National Hurricane Center outlook. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Ohio–Erie–western New York wind corridor plus localized flash flooding in the Kansas–Missouri slight-risk area.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Northern OH / NW PA / western NY	Damaging wind, lightning, brief tornado possible	Slight + Watch 665 to 11 p.m. EDT	Live watch
SE Kansas / south-central Missouri	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Tonight into Thursday morning
Des Moines / central Iowa rivers	Minor river flooding from Tuesday rain	Flood warnings	Aftermath / still in channel
TX / OK / KS scatter + High Plains	Gusty damaging wind, isolated warnings	Local SVR / SPS	Scattered
SE AZ / SW NM / SE Colorado	Heavy rain, strong outflow	WPC Slight (local)	Afternoon–overnight cells
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 58–65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Heavy rain on the Kansas–Missouri slight risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa water is already inside some buildings from Tuesday.

For teams in or near Watch 665: stage before 5 p.m. local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio or Pennsylvania county, a flooded intersection where Kansas or Missouri cells train, leftover river water in Des Moines. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Thursday the front slides toward the Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Ohio Valley with more wet weather and a continued flood watch in some of the same counties that take storms tonight. Later in the week, SPC language still flags another slight-risk window over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 665 is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 for Wednesday, September 9, 2026; SPC Mesoscale Discussion covering northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and far western New York; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text for Cleveland, State College, Buffalo, Des Moines, Amarillo, and neighboring offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Tuesday, September 8 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Iowa–Nebraska Slight Risk, Kauai Flood Aftermath, Heat-Plus-Wind Cells — Tuesday, September 8, 2026

This is a live Tuesday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Tuesday, September 8, 2026. The mainland pulse is convective: a Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from southeast Nebraska across parts of Iowa, mainly damaging wind, plus scattered high-based wind cells on the High Plains. The tropical story is not a U.S. Gulf or Atlantic landfall. It is residual water and outage work on Kauai after Hurricane Lowell passed west of the islands.

These are the events that generate the restoration work crews actually see: wind-driven roof and siding failures, isolated hail, downed trees on service lines, interior flooding from stalling cells, and — in Hawaii — wind plus flash-flood cleanup after a close hurricane pass. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

The SPC Day 1 convective outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from southeast Nebraska across parts of Iowa, including the Omaha–Council Bluffs–Des Moines corridor toward Ames and Waterloo. The headline threat is severe wind gusts. Isolated large hail and a low-end tornado chance remain in the language. A broader Marginal Risk covers parts of the upper Midwest and central Plains. High-based storms over eastern Colorado into western and central Kansas can also produce gusty, occasionally damaging wind.

Heat is part of the same setup. Heat Advisories cover portions of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa, with heat-index values near or above 100–108°F. That matters for crew stamina and for how fast wet interiors go to mold if extraction waits overnight.

No widespread convective watches were in effect at this writing. Expect local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements if cells organize along the front after mid-afternoon.

Hotspot 1 — Iowa and eastern Nebraska

A baroclinic zone from southern Nebraska into central Iowa is the focus. Differential heating sharpens it through the day. Storms are expected to initiate along or just north of that boundary late afternoon into evening, with enough shear for supercell and then bowing structures. Damaging wind is the primary restoration exposure. Weak mid-level lapse rates should limit the hail problem compared with a classic Plains supercell day, but quarter-size hail is still in local Hazardous Weather Outlooks.

NWS offices in the corridor are also flagging locally heavy rain and flash-flood potential tonight where storms train. That is interior water on the same streets that take the wind.

Cities and counties to watch: Omaha, Council Bluffs, Lincoln fringe, Des Moines, Ames, Waterloo, and counties along and south of I-80 in eastern Nebraska and western/central Iowa.

Restoration read: wind first — roofs, siding, trees, service drops — then water in the same ZIP if the line slows. Stage dehumidifiers and tarps before the front, not after the first LSR.

Hotspot 2 — Hawaii: Hurricane Lowell aftermath on Kauai and Niihau

Hurricane Lowell passed just west of Kauai and Niihau overnight into this morning. Coastal hurricane and tropical-storm warnings have been discontinued as the core moved north. Latest public advisories had the center well north-northwest of Lihue and weakening, with residual flash-flood risk still on the islands from additional heavy rain.

Impacts already on the ground: widespread power outages at the peak (on the order of 90 percent of Kauai customers in some tallies), damaging wind gusts near 80 mph on Kauai, high surf and coastal flooding, and mountain rainfall measured in the teens of inches in favored terrain. Hawaii issued a tornado watch for Kauai — the first of its kind for the state — during the closest approach.

Restoration read: this is wind-plus-water cleanup, not a new landfall tonight. Priorities are tarps, wet interiors, electrical safety on outage blocks, and roads still closed by flood or debris. Confirm current county emergency status before treating yesterday’s warning as today’s ticket.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains wind cells and scattered South-Central storms

Hot, deeply mixed boundary-layer air over eastern Colorado into western and central Kansas favors high-based storms with gusty to damaging wind this afternoon and evening. Coverage should stay scattered. That is still enough for isolated roof and tree jobs.

Farther south, Special Weather Statements and strong cells have been firing in parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi with 40 mph-class gusts and lightning — below severe criteria in most cases, but enough for local tree-limb and urban-flood work where a cell sits.

Just hit — Monday into early Tuesday reports

Preliminary SPC and NWS storm reports from September 7 into early September 8 included brief tornadoes near Hammond, Louisiana; south of Strawberry Lake in McLean County, North Dakota; and east-northeast of Spencer, Nebraska. Hail and wind reports ran through the northern and central Plains. Those are yesterday’s tickets. Today’s new work, if it comes, is the Iowa–Nebraska corridor plus residual Kauai flood and outage jobs.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
SE Nebraska / central-eastern Iowa	Damaging wind, isolated hail, low-end tornado, heavy rain	Slight	Developing afternoon–evening
Eastern CO / western-central KS	High-based damaging wind	Marginal	Possible late day
Kauai / Niihau / Hawaiian Islands	Flash flood residual, outages, surf	Warnings dropped; flood risk remains	Aftermath
East TX / LA / MS cells	Gusty wind, lightning, local heavy rain	Local SPS / strong storms	Scattered
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 58–70 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Isolated hail is vehicle lots, skylights, and soft metal. Heavy rain on the same front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Kauai is already in the outage-and-water phase.

For teams in or near the Slight Risk: stage equipment before 5 p.m. local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and get extraction started the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Lowell is moving away from Hawaii. The work tonight, if it comes on the Plains, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Iowa or Nebraska county, a flooded intersection where cells train, a hail report or two. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday’s Day 2 outlook shifts the better-organized severe threat east toward eastern Ohio into western New York. Later in the week, another system may support severe chances again on the central Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Slight Risk stays parked on I-80.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 8, 2026; SPC and NWS Local Storm Reports for September 7–8; National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlooks for Omaha, Des Moines, and neighboring offices; Central Pacific Hurricane Center / National Hurricane Center public advisories on Hurricane Lowell; and local NWS warning text.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and nhc.noaa.gov for Lowell. This desk will update when the evening reports close.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 8, 2026