Tag: storm tracker 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 26

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC / 2:54 PM CDT Monday, October 26, 2026, valid 262000Z–271200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated strong thunderstorms remain possible across far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, but organized severe potential is low. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 27 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, October 26, valid 01Z–12Z October 27) holds a MARGINAL RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (footprint reduced) and the mid to lower Texas Coast from Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay. No Slight or higher.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in west-central Chaves County, New Mexico, and portions of far west Texas / Texas Panhandle. Minor flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, weakening, moving west well south of Mexico) and Post-Tropical Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Nothing material moved to open a Slight or higher lane. Severe remains Quiet; flood remains Marginal. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of this Monday afternoon desk, October 26, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT / 0414Z October 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through the remainder of the Day 1 period. Isolated thunderstorms continue along the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West Texas under modest instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) but limited effective shear (≤30 kt), keeping the severe threat isolated. No watches or MDs are in effect.

WPC holds only Marginal Risks. On the High Plains, scattered storms associated with a shortwave may produce localized heavy rain, especially near terrain or on already wet soils. Along the mid to lower Texas Coast, increasing precipitable water and southerly flow support potential for localized heavy amounts near the immediate coast, with isolated flooding possible in urbanized areas. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

Southeast New Mexico and far west Texas (Sacramento / Davis Mountains corridor): Residual isolated strong storms and active Flash Flood Warnings on sensitive terrain and saturated soils.
Central and southern High Plains (Texas Panhandle into adjacent New Mexico/Kansas): WPC Marginal. Isolated training storms possible with localized 1–2 inches; flash-flood risk mainly on sensitive soils.
Mid to lower Texas Coast (Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay): Marginal ERO. Localized heavy rain possible near the immediate coast with potential for isolated urban flooding.

Just-Hit

Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for west-central Chaves County, New Mexico. Additional Flash Flood Warnings for portions of far west Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Minor river flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas. No widespread severe local storm reports confirmed today beyond isolated strong cells. Localized road and low-lying flooding continues in the warned areas.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 27 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and Post-Tropical Olana (CPAC) far from U.S. land. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (2000Z Oct 26): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated storms possible far west TX/SE NM. No watches or MDs.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk High Plains (reduced) + mid/lower Texas Coast. Active FFWs in NM/TX. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff on saturated soils, arroyos, small streams, urban corridors, and burn scars across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated strong storms may produce brief hail or gusty winds but no organized severe damage expected. Texas Coast carries a secondary urban flash-flood ticket under the Marginal. No widespread catastrophic damage. Monitor for lingering water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

Looking Ahead

Tuesday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Residual flash-flood sensitivity may linger where soils remain saturated on the High Plains and Texas Coast, but the overall threat winds down overnight into early Tuesday. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, 01Z update), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance / Post-Tropical Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 26, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25

As of this Sunday afternoon desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 8:15 PM PDT / 03:15 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains and southeast Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25 / 2:55 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle (roughly 92,000 sq mi, 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, Roswell). Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this afternoon/evening. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Threat remains isolated.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (West Texas, New Mexico, Colorado) and southeast Florida. Highest rainfall rates 1–1.5 inches per hour possible over already saturated soils in the Southwest. No Moderate or above.
Local NWS offices continue to issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (e.g., near Roswell in Chaves County) and residual Flash Flood concerns. Flood Watches remain on saturated soils in New Mexico. No elevation of any lane.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Nothing moved beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas where MLCAPE values support stronger cells under 30–40+ kt effective shear. No changes were made to the existing outlook in the 2000Z update. No convective watches are active.

NWS Albuquerque has issued recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for areas near Roswell (central Chaves County) with 60 mph gusts and half-dollar size hail possible. Flood Watches cover portions of central and eastern New Mexico on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. Residual flash-flood risk persists in urban corridors and small streams.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains and southeast Florida. In the High Plains, PWAT values support rainfall rates up to 1–1.5 inches per hour. In southeast Florida, onshore flow supports 1–2 inches with urban flash-flood potential along the I-95 corridor. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active or recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Flood Watches on saturated soils.
Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
Southeast Florida: WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Onshore flow and coastal convergence support 1–2 inches with locally higher totals. Urban flash-flood potential along the I-95 corridor.

Just-Hit

Recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings near Roswell (Chaves County) for 60 mph gusts and hail. Residual Flash Flood concerns on saturated soils. No confirmed significant tornado reports this evening. Localized flooding and isolated severe impacts continue in the Southwest.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~03:15 UTC Oct 26 2026 / 8:15 PM PDT Oct 25)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over NM into far west TX and western TX Panhandle. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains and SE Florida. Residual FF concerns and Flood Watches in NM. Saturated soils. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, Roswell, El Paso), small streams, and burn scars on already saturated soils. Southeast Florida carries an urban flash-flood ticket under the Slight ERO. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

Looking Ahead

Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe risk area. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 25), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance and TS Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 26 Morning

As of this late Monday evening update for the October 26 morning desk (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 04:12 UTC October 27, 2026), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC October 26 update, valid through 1200Z October 27) lists no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC October 27) maintains a Marginal Risk for portions of the central and southern High Plains and the mid to lower Texas coast. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with the earlier pulse on this same slug (published ~10:16 PM PDT October 25 and updated through the afternoon): SPC Day 1 remains at No Severe thunderstorm areas forecast. The prior Marginal Risk over New Mexico into far west Texas closed with the eastward shift of the shortwave and loss of stronger shear.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Marginal Risk from southeastern New Mexico and West Texas to central Kansas, plus the mid to lower Texas coast (Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay). No Moderate or above. Footprint reduced from earlier Slight.
NWS continues isolated Flash Flood Warnings in portions of West Texas (Jeff Davis, Reeves, Pecos) and New Mexico (Chaves), plus a Flood Warning for the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas (minor flooding). No active convective watches or mesoscale discussions. Overnight LSRs show limited verification of organized severe.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic basin quiet with no tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, weakening) and Post-Tropical Cyclone Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Severe lane closed. Flood lane at Marginal. Quiet Pulse criteria fully met. Residual ticket is localized flash-flood runoff on sensitive terrain and the Texas coast.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 26, issued 2:54 PM CDT, with later confirmation) states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Isolated thunderstorm development occurred earlier along the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West Texas under 1000–1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but stronger mid/upper-level flow shifted eastward, limiting effective shear to generally 30 kts or less. Organized severe potential remains low. No convective watches are active. Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks also show no severe areas.

WPC Day 1 ERO (850 PM EDT October 26, valid 01Z–12Z October 27) maintains a Marginal Risk from southeastern New Mexico and West Texas to central Kansas, plus the mid to lower Texas coast. Isolated heavy amounts over 3 inches possible near the immediate coast where slow-moving storms may develop under increasing PWAT; rates limited elsewhere by modest instability. No Moderate or higher risk.

NWS offices hold Flash Flood Warnings for portions of Jeff Davis, Reeves, and Pecos Counties in Texas and Chaves County in New Mexico. A Flood Warning continues for the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas (minor flooding, stage near 15.1 feet earlier). Coastal Flood Warnings and Wind Advisories remain active in the Florida Keys and southeast Florida under northeast flow (non-convective). Alaska carries Winter Storm Warnings and High Wind Warnings, outside CONUS severe/flood thresholds for this desk.

Hotspots

Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas (High Plains): Residual Marginal ERO. Isolated flash flooding possible on saturated soils, arroyos, and urban areas. Severe threat closed.
Mid to lower Texas coast (Matagorda Bay to Baffin Bay): Marginal Risk for localized heavy rain under increasing PWAT and slow-moving coastal storms. Urban flash flooding possible.

Just-Hit

Recent Flash Flood Warnings for East Central Jeff Davis County and adjacent areas in southwestern Texas (radar-indicated). River Flood Warning for the Rio Grande near Castolon affecting Brewster County (minor flooding of lowlands and park roads). No widespread severe reports in the latest cycle. Residual runoff continues where soils remain sensitive from prior days.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 04:12 UTC Oct 27 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC, weakening) and Post-Tropical Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	None	SPC Day 1: No Severe Thunderstorm Areas Forecast (2000Z Oct 26). Prior Marginal over NM/TX closed. No active watches. Day 2–3 quiet.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk for High Plains and mid/lower Texas coast. Isolated FFWs in TX/NM. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse. Residual restoration ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff on sensitive terrain, burn scars, arroyos, and urban corridors across southeastern New Mexico, West Texas, and the mid to lower Texas coast under the Marginal ERO. Isolated water intrusion and debris possible. No organized severe (hail, wind, tornado) ticket remains open. Monitor for lingering river stages on the Rio Grande and any coastal heavy rain cells.

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead

Tuesday Day 2: SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. The upper trough continues to eject. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains localized where soils are saturated or under any coastal convection. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 0051 UTC Oct 27), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Updated in place from earlier morning desk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25

As of this Sunday evening desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25 / 2:55 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle (roughly 92,000 sq mi, 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, Roswell). Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this evening. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Threat remains isolated.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0103 UTC October 26 / 9:03 PM EDT October 25, valid 01Z–12Z October 26) maintains a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (Far West Texas through the Panhandle into southwestern Kansas). Florida Slight Risk was removed and reduced to Marginal along the coast. Training storms and saturated soils support localized flash flooding. No Moderate or above.
Local NWS offices continue to issue Flash Flood Warnings (e.g., Eddy County NM, Lincoln/Chaves Counties) and occasional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of New Mexico on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Nothing elevated any lane beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. No convective watches are active. Mesoscale Discussions earlier in the day (including MD 2409) indicated watch unlikely.

NWS Albuquerque and neighboring offices have active or recent Flash Flood Warnings for areas including southwestern Eddy County (Carlsbad Caverns area), southeastern Lincoln and west-central Chaves Counties, with radar-indicated heavy rain of 1–4 inches. Flood Watches cover portions of east-central, northeast, and southeast New Mexico through late tonight. Saturated soils elevate runoff risk in arroyos, low-water crossings, and urban areas.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains. Neighborhood probabilities support additional 1–2 inch amounts with training storms. Florida risk stepped down to Marginal. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell, Carlsbad corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches on saturated soils; river flooding residual.
Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban and arroyo runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
Central and southern High Plains (into southwestern Kansas): WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Training storms support localized flash flooding on saturated ground.

Just-Hit

Flash Flood Warnings active or recent in Eddy, Lincoln, and Chaves Counties with 1–4 inches of rain and ongoing or imminent flooding of roads, low-lying areas, and arroyos. Flood Watches continue across multiple New Mexico zones. Occasional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for hail and gusts. No confirmed significant tornado reports this evening. Localized flooding and isolated severe impacts continue in the Southwest. San Juan River residual flooding from prior crest near Shiprock.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC Oct 26 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over NM into far west TX and western TX Panhandle. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening/overnight.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains. Active FFWs and Flood Watches in NM. Saturated soils. Florida now Marginal. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary and more widespread ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, Roswell, Carlsbad, El Paso), small streams, canyons, arroyos, and burn scars on already saturated soils. High Plains training rain supports additional runoff. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead

Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 25), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 0103Z Oct 26), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance and TS Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25 Morning

As of this Sunday evening update to the morning desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas on the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 26 update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening and overnight. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the earlier version of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 26 / 7:44 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas (approx. 56,500 sq mi, 1.1 million people including Roswell, Alamogordo, Clovis, Carlsbad). Area has contracted from the earlier 2000Z update. Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this evening/night. No active watches (Watch 697 expired). Threat remains isolated.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0103 UTC October 26) holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (Far West Texas through the Panhandle into southwestern Kansas). Marginal Risk remains along the southeast Florida coast after the Slight was removed. No Moderate or above.
Overnight local NWS Flash Flood Warnings were issued for portions of Eddy County in New Mexico and Hudspeth/El Paso Counties in Texas with radar-indicated heavy rain. Flood sensitivity remains elevated on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Nothing elevated any lane beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and into the night. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible along a reinforced baroclinic zone. Greater buoyancy supports stronger cells under 35-50 kt shear south of the boundary. No convective watches are active. Mesoscale discussions note watch issuance unlikely.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains. Favorable upper jet and mid-level forcing with persistent southerly inflow support moderate to heavy rain and training storms, with additional 1-2 inch amounts possible. Eastern Marginal extent was pulled westward. Southeast Florida carries a Marginal Risk after the Slight was dropped; showers remain progressive. No Moderate or higher ERO.

NWS offices issued Flash Flood Warnings overnight for western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Flood Watches may continue where multi-day rainfall has left soils saturated. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for portions of Alaska, but these do not affect the CONUS Quiet Pulse.

Hotspots

Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas (Roswell, Carlsbad, Alamogordo, Clovis corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible this evening. Recent Flash Flood Warnings. Elevated runoff risk on saturated soils.
Southeast Florida: WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Onshore flow supports isolated heavy showers. Urban flash-flood potential limited.

Just-Hit

Overnight Flash Flood Warnings for portions of Eddy County NM (Carlsbad Caverns area) and Hudspeth/El Paso Counties TX with 0.5-2 inches radar-indicated. Localized flooding of roads, arroyos, and low-lying areas. No confirmed significant tornado reports. Isolated severe and flood impacts continue in the Southwest.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~0412Z Oct 26 2026 / 9:12 PM PDT Oct 25)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z) Marginal Risk over eastern NM into Far West TX. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening/night.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains. Marginal for SE Florida. Recent FFWs in TX/NM. Saturated soils. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors, small streams, canyons, and burn scars on already saturated soils. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous version of this desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 24

As of this Saturday evening update to the afternoon desk, October 24, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT / 0414Z October 25), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated severe wind, hail, and a tornado remain possible this evening as storms continue but instability decreases with nocturnal cooling. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 is valid until 0400Z October 25 (9 PM PDT). The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-24-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 25 / 8:07 PM CDT Saturday, October 24, 2026, valid 250100Z–251200Z) confirms a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible this evening; the environment is becoming less conducive with nocturnal cooling.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 (issued ~2055Z October 24 for NM TX) remains valid until 0400Z October 25. Status reports indicate the severe weather threat continues in portions of central/southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Primary residual threats are isolated large hail and severe gusts as storms congeal.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0102 UTC Sunday October 25, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 25) holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado into far western Kansas. Highest totals 1.5–3 inches possible. No Moderate or above. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in El Paso/Hudspeth County TX and Bernalillo/Santa Fe area NM on saturated soils.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Eastern Pacific hurricane activity (Vance) is well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane holds at Slight. Quiet Pulse criteria met. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff in New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Southwest this evening. The most intense cells are across Far West Texas north into central New Mexico, where radar suggests large hail and severe gusts remain possible. The 00 UTC Albuquerque sounding showed MUCAPE around 900 J/kg that is peaking and will weaken with low-level stabilization. Congealing storms and decreasing buoyancy lead to an increasingly sporadic severe threat overnight.

Watch 697 covers the core area in NM and TX until 9 PM PDT. Local NWS offices continue Flash Flood Warnings in southeastern El Paso County and western Hudspeth County TX (until ~1:30 AM MDT in some segments) and in Bernalillo, northwestern Torrance, and southwestern Santa Fe Counties NM (until ~11:15 PM MDT), with observed heavy rain of 1–3 inches and road impacts including I-40 segments.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1–1.5 inches per hour possible in the highest zones, capable of flash flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons, and burn scars, especially where prior rainfall has saturated soils. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

Central New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Ongoing convection with isolated hail/wind possible into the evening. Flash Flood Warnings active in sensitive terrain and urban areas on saturated soils. I-40 segments impacted.
Far west Texas and El Paso / Hudspeth County: Marginal severe overlap. Flash Flood Warnings for southeastern El Paso and western Hudspeth. Storms moving northeast. Urban runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
Southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico: WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Residual upslope and training potential. Lower severe threat. Sensitivity from earlier activity this week.

Just-Hit

Flash Flood Warnings remain active or recently extended in southeastern El Paso County and western Hudspeth County TX, and in Bernalillo, northwestern Torrance, and southwestern Santa Fe Counties NM. Observed rainfall 1–3 inches in spots with flash flooding of creeks, urban areas, and highways. No confirmed significant tornado reports at this desk time. Localized flooding and residual wind/hail impacts ongoing in the Southwest corridor.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 25 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Hurricane Vance (EPAC) far south of Mexico. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over central/southern NM and far west TX. Watch 697 until 0400Z. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening. Threat decreasing overnight.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for portions of NM, southern CO, and far west TX. 1.5–3″ possible. Active FFWs. Residual sensitivity. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk and closing Watch 697. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (El Paso, Albuquerque), small streams, canyons, and burn scars on already saturated soils. No widespread catastrophic damage expected; threats diminish overnight.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk remains on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

Looking Ahead

Sunday (Day 2): SPC outlooks a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms continuing from southern/eastern New Mexico into far west Texas for isolated large hail. WPC maintains some excessive rainfall potential as the upper low progresses. The organized severe window closes overnight tonight. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 25, Watch 697), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; Hurricane Vance Eastern Pacific). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-24-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 24, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Severe — Oct 24 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 (latest 0100Z Oct 25 / 0807 PM CDT Oct 24, valid 250100Z-251200Z) now Marginal Risk for central/southern New Mexico and Far West Texas, stepped down from daytime Slight Risk. Isolated severe wind/hail and tornado remain possible this evening as instability decreases.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #697 remains active until 0400Z Oct 25 (9 PM MST) for central into SE NM and Far West TX. Threats: damaging winds, large hail (to 2″), isolated tornado.
Ongoing LSRs and warnings: hail to 1.25″, winds to 75 mph reported; multiple Severe TSTM and Flash Flood Warnings in NM/TX/CO as of late Oct 24.
WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk maintained for West TX, NM, CO (updated ~0732Z Oct 24). Flash Flood Warnings active, including considerable threats and road closures.
No change in tropical: none for U.S. Hurricane Vance (EP) no U.S. threat. Atlantic quiet.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Details (as of ~0212Z Oct 25 / evening Oct 24 PDT)
Severe	Marginal	SPC latest Day 1 Marginal NM/Far West TX. Watch 697 live. LSRs hail 1″+ / winds 60-75 mph (Oct 24).
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight ERO. Active Flash Flood Warnings NM (Lincoln, Cibola etc.), TX, CO. I-40 impacts reported.
Tropical	None	No U.S. watches/warnings. Vance EP ~90 mph south of Mexico. Atlantic no cyclones.

Official Outlooks

SPC Day 1 latest (SPC AC 250107, 0807 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026): THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible this evening. Storms continue but buoyancy weakening with nocturnal cooling; threat increasingly sporadic overnight.

Earlier 1300Z outlook had Slight Risk for afternoon/evening. Watch 697 issued 155 PM MST covering the core. MD 2408 confirmed ongoing hail >1″ and 60-70 mph gusts into evening.

WPC Day 1 ERO (Dolan, ~0732Z Oct 24, valid 12Z Oct 24-12Z Oct 25): SLIGHT RISK of excessive rainfall for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. 1.5-3″ possible, rates challenging flash flood guidance, especially on wet soils. Marginal elsewhere including Four Corners and SE Florida.

NWS: Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings (observed flooding, considerable threats in places like Lincoln NM, Cibola with I-40 closed). SPC storm reports Oct 24: 1″ hail Canutillo TX / White Sands / Lincoln NM; winds 58-75 mph in Dona Ana / Otero NM.

NHC: No tropical cyclones in Atlantic. Hurricane Vance Eastern Pacific holding ~90 mph, well south of Mexico, no U.S. impact. No TS/H watches for U.S. coast or Gulf.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Informational only — not an official warning. Check latest SPC, WPC, NWS, NHC.

October 24, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-23-morning: Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas (roughly 82,400 sq mi, 2.4 million people). Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; the environment is becoming less conducive with decreasing buoyancy and nocturnal cooling.
No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 (most recently issued) has expired. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect. The organized severe window is closing.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0057 UTC Saturday October 24 / discussion 8:57 PM EDT Friday, valid 01Z–12Z October 24) continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Hurricane Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~110 mph, ~12.0°N 102.6°W) continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Atlantic quiet; no tropical cyclones.
The categorical severe lane remains at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane holds at Slight. Quiet Pulse is open.

Live Status

As of this Friday afternoon desk, October 23, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 24 / 0414Z October 24), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Scattered thunderstorms organized into a mix of supercells and clusters earlier, with hail and severe gusts the primary risks. The severe threat is becoming increasingly isolated as nocturnal cooling sets in. No watches are valid.

WPC Day 1 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the same general region. Locally heavy rainfall rates remain possible in intense cells, with isolated flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. The tropical lane is closed for U.S. impact.

Hotspots

Central and western New Mexico / far west Texas: Marginal severe risk. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso areas included in the footprint. Isolated hail and wind possible this evening. Threat diminishing. Prior Watch 696 has expired.

Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Marginal severe overlapping Slight excessive rainfall risk. Terrain-driven heavy rain possible. Residual flash-flood sensitivity from prior activity. Highest concern on burn scars and steep slopes.

Far west Texas (El Paso corridor): Included in both the Marginal severe and Slight flood areas. Straight hodographs earlier favored splitting supercells with hail as the main threat. Activity winding down.

Just-Hit

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 was active earlier today until 9 PM MDT. Special Weather Statements and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued this afternoon for strong storms producing nickel-size hail and gusts near 50–60 mph in the Albuquerque metro vicinity and other New Mexico counties. Preliminary local storm reports include hail and wind gusts, primarily outside the core NM area in adjacent states. Flash Flood Warnings active earlier in portions of New Mexico. No widespread major damage reports confirmed at this desk time; isolated hail and wind impacts likely. Prior overnight Moderate flood activity produced verified flash flooding in the Four Corners high terrain.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 24 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Hurricane Vance far south of Mexico (~110 mph). No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. Atlantic quiet.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal over portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX (~82k sq mi). Isolated hail, gusts, perhaps a tornado this evening. No watches or MDs valid. Threat diminishing.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. No Moderate or higher.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable

Restoration Read

Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind under the earlier Slight Risk and now-expired Watch 696. Isolated roof, vehicle and vegetation damage possible from large hail and gusts. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor for any remaining Severe Thunderstorm Warnings or Flash Flood Warnings.

What This Is Not

This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC as of the afternoon update. SPC holds Marginal. WPC holds Slight excessive rainfall. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Quiet Pulse is open.

Looking Ahead

Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. The severe threat continues to diminish overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon and evening. Residual runoff possible in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

Sources

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 23, 2026

Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning

As of this Thursday morning desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 23 / 0412Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues moving away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon) and the prior version of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico (expanded southward into NW NM). Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Surrounding Slight Risk remains.
NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch have been in effect across portions of Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) and other Four Corners drainages. Flood Watches continue regionally.
Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk is the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This morning desk is updated in place under the standard slug; afternoon companion already live under quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-afternoon.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and the Four Corners. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy supports robust storms into the evening (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg in favored areas) with deep-layer shear of 50–60 kt. Primary hazards are large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two, maximized from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the Great Basin.

WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Antecedent rainfall, upslope flow and training convection support elevated flash-flood potential. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible; additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) expected in the Moderate area. A broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest terrain. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

Hotspots

Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations. Flash Flood Warnings verified in upstream Arizona basins.

Eastern and central Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and topography align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain in or near the risk area. Flash flooding accompanies the convection.

Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.

Just-Hit

National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been in effect for portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings are active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 23 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Josephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, few tornadoes. Prior Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Watch in AZ. Marginal elsewhere.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

What This Is Not

This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains scattered.

Looking Ahead One Day

Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23, 2026): spc.noaa.gov
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches/warnings: weather.gov
NHC Josephine post-tropical: nhc.noaa.gov
Previous desk: Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21
Afternoon companion: Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

As of this Thursday afternoon desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 23 / 0414Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico, with scattered severe storms remaining possible across the Southwest and Great Basin into the evening. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues accelerating northeastward away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-morning): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight; category unchanged.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible amid training convection and upslope flow; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Slight Risk surrounds it. Category unchanged from morning.
NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low (last advisory). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning remains in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and watches have been in effect across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Tornado Warnings were issued earlier for parts of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and into New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat, and other Four Corners drainages. Local storm reports continue to verify large hail and damaging winds.
Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk remains the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This afternoon desk updates in place under the standard slug and links the morning desk under Sources.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy around 1000 J/kg supports robust storms into the evening, with favorable deep-layer shear (50–60 kt) for hail and severe gusts. A tornado or two remains possible, particularly from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Farther north into the Great Basin, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible under more limited buoyancy, with damaging gusts the primary hazard. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the region.

WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Anomalous moisture, diffluent flow, and training convection continue to support flash flooding. The San Juans see the heaviest accumulations, with model consensus for 3–4 inches and localized higher. Broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest and Four Corners areas. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

Hotspots

Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Flash Flood Warnings already verified in parts of Arizona that feed into the region. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations.

Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk with active convection. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and terrain align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain influenced. Flash flooding accompanies the convection. Verifying reports of hail and wind continue.

Just-Hit

National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. Tornado Warnings were issued this afternoon for portions of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and parts of New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors. No confirmed tornado damage reports received so far today. No widespread major river flooding reported.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 23 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Josephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, tornado or two possible. Prior warnings and watches in AZ/NM. LSRs verifying hail/wind. Marginal elsewhere.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ and NM. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. Isolated tornado potential adds tree and structure damage risk where rotation was indicated. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

What This Is Not

This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated to scattered severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains limited.

Looking Ahead One Day

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23, 2026): spc.noaa.gov
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches/warnings: weather.gov
NHC Josephine post-tropical: nhc.noaa.gov
Morning desk: Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning
Previous day: Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 22, 2026