Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic Severe — Nov 12 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

• Tornado Watch 705 (issued 1750 UTC / 12:50 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026, valid until 0000 UTC Nov 13 / 7 PM EST) has expired. SPC current watches page lists no convective watches valid. The primary severe window has closed.
• SPC storm reports for the 12Z cycle now list 1 tornado (1815 UTC, New Castle County DE near Eastburn Heights / Christiana area, radar and video confirmation of touchdown) plus 34 hail reports (up to 1.75 inches) across DE, NJ, PA and MD, and 7 wind reports. Local NWS Mount Holly statements and media confirm additional tornado activity in Burlington County NJ.
• SPC Day 1 2000 UTC outlook held the small Slight Risk over central/southern NJ and far SE PA (trimmed from earlier MD/DE). Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast for Friday.
• WPC Day 1 ERO remains Marginal from eastern PA into Long Island. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in portions of the Philadelphia-Trenton-Camden-Queens corridor on urbanized soils with training cells.
• Tropical lane unchanged: NHC confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf or Eastern Pacific. Remnants of Pena (Central Pacific) final advisory issued, no U.S. threat. No tropical watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Pulse Table

The morning desk tracks the Mid-Atlantic severe corridor on Thursday, November 12, 2026. A developing surface low tracked eastward across New Jersey along a warm front, with MLCAPE 500-900 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong low-level shear supporting isolated supercells. The Slight Risk area was small but covered high population density including parts of the Philadelphia metro, Trenton, and central New Jersey. Hail was the primary concern and has been realized with multiple reports of quarter- to golf-ball size. A tornado or two occurred, with confirmed touchdowns in New Castle County DE and reports of activity in Burlington County NJ. The watch has now expired and the organized severe threat has diminished as the low moves offshore.

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC / 2:00 PM CST November 12, 2026, valid through 1200Z Nov 13) held a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon over parts of central/southern New Jersey and far southeastern Pennsylvania. Summary: Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail, a couple of tornadoes, and perhaps damaging winds remain possible across parts of southeastern Pennsylvania and southern/central New Jersey this afternoon. The 2000Z update trimmed probabilities across eastern MD and DE as the risk shifted northeast with the surface low. Refer to MCD 2452 and Tornado Watch 705 (now expired) for near-term details. Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Next Day 1 outlook scheduled by 0100Z.

Tornado Watch 705 (Expired)

SPC issued Tornado Watch Number 705 at 12:50 PM EST Thursday, November 12, 2026, effective until 7:00 PM EST. Coverage included northern Delaware (New Castle), central New Jersey (Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Warren), eastern Pennsylvania (Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton, Philadelphia), and adjacent coastal waters. Primary threats: a few tornadoes possible, scattered large hail to 1.5 inches, isolated damaging gusts to 70 mph. Isolated strong/supercell thunderstorms formed near the surface low and warm front. As of late evening EST the watch has expired; no current convective watches are valid. Preliminary SPC reports confirm a tornado in New Castle County DE with damage near Christiana Hospital area; local statements noted additional tornado activity in Burlington County NJ. Hail reports reached 1.75 inches. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for quarter-size hail were active earlier in Ocean and Monmouth Counties NJ.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Updated 1558 UTC (10:58 AM EST) November 12, 2026, valid 16 UTC Nov 12 through 12 UTC Nov 13. Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania into Long Island. Based on 12Z HRRR/REFS guidance showing a narrow stripe of 1-3 inches between Philadelphia and New York. Convection focused along the east-west warm front into the I-95 corridor. Training risk over urbanized areas if cells rotate. No Moderate or higher for Day 1. Day 2 probabilities below 5 percent. Active Flash Flood Warnings have been issued and extended for portions of Queens NY, Burlington/Mercer/Monmouth NJ, Bucks PA, Philadelphia, Camden, Montgomery, and Delaware Counties, with radar-indicated flooding, reported water on highways (including I-76, I-95), and water rescues in places. Turn around, don’t drown.

NHC / Tropical

National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of America, or Eastern North Pacific. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin. In the Central North Pacific, Remnants of Pena (near 9.8°N 173.4°W, moving west at 18 mph, 35 mph winds, 1006 mb) received its final advisory. No threat to the U.S. mainland or Gulf. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Other NWS Watches and Warnings

Beyond the Mid-Atlantic focus, NWS has Blizzard Warnings active for portions of the northern Arctic Coast and Beaufort Sea Coast in Alaska through Friday. Coastal Flood Warnings remain for parts of the California coast and San Juan County WA. High Surf Warnings for California and Oregon. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the Sierra Nevada beginning Friday, with significant snow possible above 6,000-7,000 feet and high ridge winds. These are secondary to the Mid-Atlantic severe and urban flood corridor for restoration purposes today.

Rising Queries

• tornado watch
• tornado warning
• hail New Jersey November 12
• flash flood warning Philadelphia
• Tornado Watch 705

Outlook Forward

Day 2 SPC convective outlook shows No Severe. The surface low is moving offshore, reducing the severe threat. Residual heavy rain and the transition to higher-elevation snow farther north and west will be the main story into Friday. Restoration interests in the Philadelphia-Trenton-Camden-Wilmington corridor should document any hail or wind damage promptly; isolated structural and vehicle impacts from quarter-size or larger hail and brief tornado paths are the primary ticket drivers. Urban flash flooding on already wet soils remains a secondary concern along the I-95 corridor. Monitor local NWS for any lingering warnings as the system exits.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always follow local National Weather Service offices and emergency management for decisions.