Tag: California

Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (which carried an Enhanced risk over central Arizona): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z, issued 0800 PM CDT) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Large hail remains the primary threat, with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds possible overnight. The categorical risk stepped down from the earlier Enhanced area focused on Flagstaff–Prescott–Sedona.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been active across northern and central Arizona; earlier Tornado Watch 688 transitioned. Local storm reports through the day and evening include hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf ball to larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa, plus measured gusts to 60+ mph. Flash Flood Warnings continue on higher terrain, burn scars, and dry washes in Arizona and southern Utah.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over the Southwest and Four Corners, including Southern California ranges and much of Arizona. No upgrade to Moderate. A Marginal risk persists near the lower Texas coast.
Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory 1 at 5 PM AST, subsequent updates) is centered near 37.4N 69.5W with 65 mph winds, moving north then accelerating northeast away from the United States. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Tropical Storm Vance remains far south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific.
The morning desk is linked under Sources. Arizona severe and Southwest flood lanes remain open as the restoration drivers. Quiet Pulse is closed.

Live Status

As of this Wednesday afternoon desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 22 / 0414Z October 22), the SPC lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of Arizona, including the Phoenix metro (Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale), extending into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah through the overnight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat, with severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible where low-level curvature increases near the Mogollon Rim and local terrain.

The flood lane stays Slight. WPC continues the Slight risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners, driven by a deep cyclone near the California coast scooping anomalous tropical moisture (IVT values of 300–700 kg/ms, PWAT 0.75–1.5 inches). Hourly rainfall amounts to 2–2.5 inches remain possible with training or backbuilding over terrain, burn scars, urban areas, slot canyons, and dry washes. Day 2 outlooks maintain Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona.

The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. Subtropical Storm Josephine is a few hundred miles offshore the Mid-Atlantic, forecast to move northeastward away from the United States with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual coastal flood and high-surf products from the offshore system continue along parts of the East Coast but do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall thresholds. See the Josephine 2026 storm hub.

Hotspots

Central and northern Arizona (Mogollon Rim to Flagstaff–Prescott): Primary overnight severe threat. Ongoing and additional supercells capable of large hail (up to 2+ inches), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Multiple warnings and reports have already verified across Yavapai, Coconino, and Navajo counties.

Phoenix metro and southern Arizona: Included in the Slight risk envelope. Multiple rounds of storms have produced hail and wind damage; continued supercell potential overnight as the axis shifts eastward.

Southern California coastal ranges and Transverse Ranges: Marginal severe (isolated gusts, low-end tornado potential) plus Slight flood risk as the Pacific cyclone approaches. Terrain-enhanced rainfall and burn-scar runoff are the primary concerns.

Just-Hit

Local storm reports and media accounts through the day and early evening document hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf-ball size and larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa County, with reports of shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees (including ponderosa pines in the Coconino National Forest). Tornado warnings were issued for parts of Coconino and Yavapai Counties. Flash Flood Warnings remain active over parts of southern Utah, Arizona burn scars, and higher terrain. No widespread major river flooding is reported, but the setup supports rapid runoff overnight.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 22 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Subtropical Storm Josephine ~37.4N 69.5W, 65 mph, accelerating NE away from the U.S. No coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into SE NV/SW UT for large hail, couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. Active warnings and verifying LSRs.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight over Southwest/Four Corners including SoCal ranges and AZ. Hourly 2–2.5″ possible. Burn scars, urban areas, canyons primary concern.

Rising Queries

Arizona tornado watch
Phoenix hail storm October 21
Flagstaff severe weather
Mogollon Rim storms
Southern California flash flood

Restoration Read

Dominant ticket is Arizona severe (Slight overnight after daytime Enhanced verification with large hail and wind damage) plus Southwest Slight flood risk. Phoenix metro and central Arizona face continued supercell potential tonight. Southern California sees the moisture plume and terrain-enhanced rain. Monitor official sources for active warnings. This morning’s desk is linked under Sources.

What This Is Not

This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. No Moderate or higher flood risk is in effect on Day 1, no U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active, and the severe categorical risk has stepped down from Enhanced to Slight for the overnight period.

Looking Ahead

Thursday: SPC Day 2 carries a Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona. WPC Day 2 continues Slight excessive rainfall potential over the Southwest. Josephine becomes post-tropical and accelerates farther northeast. The Pacific cyclone continues to influence California and the Southwest through Thursday, with the primary severe axis shifting eastward into Arizona and southwest New Mexico overnight into early Thursday.

Sources

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 21, 2026

Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Earlier Enhanced risk over central Arizona has closed with the end of peak diurnal heating; supercells remain possible overnight.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 689 and 690 remain active over central and southern Arizona. Multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings verified earlier; LSRs include large hail (up to golf-ball size) and damaging winds in Yavapai, Coconino, and Maricopa Counties.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over portions of southern California and the Southwest U.S. (including much of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, western New Mexico). No upgrade to Moderate. Heavy rainfall rates continue with the moist plume and upper low.
NHC continues advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory ~2: ~37.7°N 69.4°W, 65 mph, moving NNE at 6 mph, expected to accelerate northeast away from the U.S. and become extratropical with hurricane-force winds). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. threat. Storm hub: Josephine 2026.
Both severe and flood lanes remain open at Slight. Restoration focus stays on Arizona hail/wind/isolated tornado damage plus Southwest flash-flood potential from ongoing convection. Quiet Pulse remains closed.

Live Status

As of this Wednesday evening update to the morning desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 22 / 0412Z October 22), the national picture centers on the Southwest. SPC Day 1 lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across much of Arizona (including the Phoenix metro: Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale) into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah for tonight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat (locally 2+ inches possible), with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds also possible given residual low-level shear and terrain influences. MUCAPE remains 1000–1500 J/kg under the advancing cold core of the deep upper low off the California coast. Additional development is expected across south-central Arizona overnight as shortwave energy approaches from Mexico.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689 covers central and southern Arizona until roughly 9:00 PM MST, with primary threats of scattered large hail (isolated very large), damaging winds to 70 mph, and a tornado or two. Watch 690 extends coverage further. Radar and local storm reports earlier today verified hail to 1.5 inches and 60 mph gusts near Prescott, Hawkins, Iron Springs, and other locations in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Tornado warnings were issued in northern Arizona (first tornado watch products for the state in roughly 16 years). Convection is shifting eastward across Arizona into southwest New Mexico into early Thursday.

WPC Day 1 carries a Slight risk of excessive rainfall over southern California (focused on the Transverse Ranges, burn scars, and urban corridors north and northeast of Los Angeles) and the broader Southwest/Four Corners, including much of Arizona, southern Utah, and adjacent areas. Persistent southerly flow is advecting anomalous moisture; HREF probabilities for additional >1 inch rainfall remain high (>70%) through 12Z. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible, with higher amounts in terrain. Flash Flood Warnings have been issued in parts of Coconino County and southern Utah (including near Zion and Bryce areas). Residual Flood Watches cover higher terrain and burn scars. No Moderate or higher ERO is in effect on Day 1.

Tropical lane remains closed for the United States. Subtropical Storm Josephine is accelerating northeast away from the East Coast with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual high surf and coastal flood products may continue along portions of the East Coast from the parent system, but these do not open a tropical lane for this desk. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in parts of Alaska; these are outside the primary severe/flood focus.

Just-Hit

Preliminary local storm reports and media accounts document golf-ball-sized hail, shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees across northern and central Arizona, including Flagstaff and Mesa areas. Strong winds toppled trees in the Coconino National Forest. Multiple tornado warnings and the first tornado watch for northern Arizona since 2010 verified earlier in the day. Flash Flood Warnings are active or recent over parts of Coconino County, southern Utah (including Zion National Park vicinity with reported muddy flows), and higher terrain/burn scars. No widespread major flooding has been reported as of this update, but the setup supports rapid runoff and urban/terrain flash flooding overnight. Primary ongoing restoration ticket is hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, and vegetation in the Phoenix metro and high country, with secondary flash-flood concerns in sensitive terrain.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 22 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Subtropical Storm Josephine ~37.7N 69.4W, 65 mph, moving NNE away. No U.S. watches/warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. Hub live.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into far SE NV/SW UT for large hail (primary), couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. SVR TSTM Watches 689 & 690 active. LSRs of large hail and wind verified.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1: Slight over southern CA and Southwest (AZ, S UT, SW CO, W NM). High probs for additional heavy rain. FFWs recent in Coconino AZ and S UT. No Moderate+.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Means

The restoration ticket is driven by the Arizona Slight risk severe weather, with supporting flash-flood potential across the Southwest. Organized supercells continue into the evening and overnight with primary hazards of large hail and damaging winds, plus a couple of tornadoes possible. Phoenix metro and central Arizona remain in the threat area under active watches. Southern California sees a marginal severe threat from the approaching Pacific cyclone plus a Slight excessive rainfall risk focused on coastal ranges and urban areas. Named storm hub for Josephine is live even though no U.S. coastal threat. Monitor official sources for the latest warnings and local impacts.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

As of this Tuesday afternoon desk, October 20, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 21), the national picture holds as a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 continues with no severe thunderstorm areas forecast through tonight. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No categorical severe risk remains open. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has fully closed for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific. AL93 remains a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast with a medium (40%) chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it moves north-northeast over the Gulf Stream. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf continue along portions of the East Coast.
Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 maintains an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona, plus portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and California starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. Quiet Pulse holds on Day 1.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 21) lists no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no severe threat is forecast. No watches are valid.

The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida (St. Johns River near Astor, moderate stage) and Georgia (Satilla River at Atkinson). Coastal and marine products, including Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings offshore the mid-Atlantic, persist with the non-tropical low. Flood Watches for Wednesday cover portions of the Southwest and California ahead of the next system. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in interior Alaska.

Hotspots

Southwest / Arizona corridor (looking ahead): Flood Watches already issued for central and eastern Arizona, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico starting Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk targets portions of Arizona for large hail and isolated tornadoes. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners.
East Coast coastal / marine: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) offshore the mid-Atlantic continues to drive high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf. Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for offshore waters. No tropical development is imminent for U.S. land.
Residual river and Alaska winter: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns (FL) and Satilla (GA). Winter Storm Warnings remain active across portions of interior Alaska (Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Yukon Flats) with heavy snow totals of 5–36 inches depending on elevation.

Just-Hit

No significant local storm reports of severe weather (hail ≥1 inch, damaging wind, tornado) or widespread flash flooding on Day 1. Prior Marginal activity over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has ended with loss of heating. Residual river stages and coastal products only.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 21 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. NHC: no tropical cyclones Atlantic/EPAC/CPAC. AL93 non-tropical low off mid-Atlantic (40% subtropical chance next few days). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 21): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Isolated thunder possible Southwest and Plains overnight, no severe threat.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Flood Watches issued for Southwest/CA starting Wednesday. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest.

Rising Queries

“Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona and Southwest Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Broader weather forecast queries remain elevated with the approaching Day 2 risk.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. Residual river flooding in Florida and Georgia is the primary ongoing water concern. Coastal flooding and high surf along the East Coast will continue with the offshore low. Wednesday brings the first above-Quiet window over Arizona and the Southwest—monitor Flood Watches and the Day 2 Enhanced Risk closely. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Enhanced severe and Slight flood risks for Wednesday remain outside the current Day 1 window.

Looking Ahead One Day

Wednesday holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona (large hail, isolated tornado potential) on the SPC Day 2 outlook. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona and adjacent areas starting Wednesday. The East Coast offshore low continues to influence winds, surf, and coastal flooding as it moves northeast. No named tropical threat to the U.S. coast is indicated.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: spc.noaa.gov
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov
NHC: nhc.noaa.gov
This morning’s desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always consult official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for decisions.

October 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 17

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-17-morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest ~0100Z October 18 / 6 PM PDT Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 180100Z–181200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions are currently valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0758 UTC Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 12Z Oct 17–12Z Oct 18) holds the Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. Earlier Flash Flood Warnings and residual Flood Advisories (northern Broward / southeast Palm Beach) have expired as of ~6:45 PM EDT. Deep moisture, diurnal heating, and onshore convergence ahead of the cold front still support 2–3 inch-per-hour rates and localized urban flooding potential as cells progress south through tonight.
The developing non-tropical low / Nor’easter off the Carolina coast remains the multi-day story. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook rates formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours and low (~30 percent) through 7 days. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the East Coast regardless.
NWS High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain active in Southern California mountains and passes (easterly gusts 45–60 mph through this evening) and along the Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina (north winds 25–40 mph, gusts 45–55 mph through Monday). No new organized severe or Moderate-or-higher flood thresholds have opened.
Nothing material has moved on the severe lane. The picture remains Quiet Pulse.

Live Status

As of the Saturday afternoon desk, October 17, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 18), the national severe picture stays closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight and lists no valid convective watches. High pressure dominates much of the CONUS outside residual frontal and coastal activity.

Water remains the primary residual concern. The WPC Slight Risk holds on the Florida East Coast where the cold front is progressing south. Scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy rates and localized urban flash flooding continue through tonight into early Sunday, particularly southeast Florida metro areas from Port St. Lucie through Miami. Earlier short-fuse products have expired; residual drainage continues in poor-drainage urban areas.

The developing coastal low off the Carolinas is building the multi-day wind and coastal flood story. Onshore flow will drive periods of rain, gusty winds (locally 45–55+ mph on the Outer Banks), high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic and Outer Banks into early next week. NHC is monitoring possible subtropical development but rates the near-term chance near zero.

Hotspots

Florida East Coast: WPC Slight ERO. Localized flash flooding possible with slow-moving thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Urban streets, roads, and small streams most vulnerable through tonight.

Outer Banks and coastal North Carolina: NWS Wind Advisories (gusts 45–55 mph) through Monday. Developing Nor’easter brings coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion potential.

Southern California: Residual High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories for easterly/Santa Ana regime in mountains and passes (gusts 45–60 mph) through this evening.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 18 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (low chance). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 18): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Baja moisture plume. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. 2–3″/hr rates possible; localized urban flash flooding. No Moderate or higher. Earlier FFWs/Advisories expired.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Localized urban flooding on the Florida East Coast and wind damage potential (trees, power lines, unsecured objects) on the Outer Banks and Southern California mountains remain the near-term concerns. Coastal flooding and beach erosion will build with the Nor’easter into early next week. No widespread severe or higher-end flood event is underway.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Slight ERO on the Florida East Coast and the developing Nor’easter keep flood and coastal lanes open at lower thresholds only.

Looking Ahead One Day

Sunday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over a portion of south Florida. The coastal low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and potential flooding into early next week. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf in the near term.

Sources

Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-17-morning
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS watches and warnings summary: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:14 PM PDT on October 17, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 17 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the October 16 afternoon desk and earlier versions of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0754 PM CDT Saturday, October 17, 2026 / 0100Z October 18, valid 180100Z–181200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions are currently valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0758 UTC Saturday, October 17, 2026, valid 12Z Oct 17–12Z Oct 18) holds the Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall along portions of the Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. Deep moisture, diurnal heating, and onshore convergence ahead of the cold front continue to support 2–3 inch-per-hour rates. Localized urban flash flooding remains possible through tonight; residual Flood Advisories may linger as cells progress south.
The developing non-tropical low / Nor’easter off the southeast U.S. coast remains the multi-day story. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook rates formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours and low through 7 days. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf expected along portions of the East Coast regardless of development.
NWS High Wind Warnings continue in Southern California (Santa Ana / easterly gusts to 50–60 mph in mountains and passes through this evening). Wind Advisories and coastal flood potential persist for Outer Banks / coastal North Carolina. Nothing material has moved on the severe lane. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of this Saturday evening update to the October 17, 2026 morning desk (approximately 8:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM EDT / 0313Z October 18), the national severe picture stays closed. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight and lists no valid convective watches. High pressure dominates much of the CONUS outside residual frontal and coastal activity.

Water remains the primary residual concern. The WPC Slight Risk holds on the Florida East Coast where the cold front is progressing south. Scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy rates continue through tonight into early Sunday, with localized urban and street flooding possible especially in southeast Florida metro areas. Overnight LSRs show no significant severe reports.

The multi-day story is the developing coastal low / Nor’easter off the Carolinas. Potential coastal flooding, beach erosion, gusty winds, high surf, and rip currents along the Mid-Atlantic into early next week. NHC monitors for possible subtropical traits at low odds; no U.S. tropical warnings in effect.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM EDT / 0313Z 18 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Non-tropical low off SE coast may acquire subtropical traits (low chance). Pacific Hurricane Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
Severe	Quiet	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 18): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches valid. Thunder limited to southern FL and Baja moisture plume. Prior Mid-Atlantic Slight closed.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk Florida East Coast / Gold Coast. 2–3″/hr rates possible; localized urban flash flooding. No Moderate or higher. Residual Advisories after earlier FFWs.

Hotspots

Florida East Coast: WPC Slight ERO. Heavy rain rates from slow-moving thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Localized urban flooding possible through tonight, especially coastal metro areas from Port St. Lucie south through Miami.

Carolina / Mid-Atlantic coast: Developing Nor’easter. Wind Advisories, coastal flood potential, high surf, beach erosion into early next week. Outer Banks strongest winds.

Southern California: Ongoing High Wind Warnings (Santa Ana regime). Non-convective tree and power impacts possible in mountains and passes through this evening.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Slight ERO on the Florida East Coast and developing Nor’easter keep lower-threshold flood and coastal lanes open only.

Looking Ahead One Day

Sunday holds no severe thunderstorm areas on SPC Day 2. WPC Day 2 carries Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over a portion of south Florida. The coastal low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and potential flooding into early next week. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf in the near term.

Sources

Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (No Severe), NWS watches/warnings, WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Slight FL East Coast), NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 16.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:13 PM PDT on October 17, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 17, 2026

Storm Updates: West Texas Moderate Flood — Oct 15

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the morning desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-15-morning), WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0644 UTC / 2:44 AM EDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 12Z Thu–12Z Fri) continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of west Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Lower Pecos / Concho Valley). No category change. Focus remains on the southwest shift from the prior central Oklahoma Moderate.
Active Flash Flood Warnings issued this morning by NWS Norman for parts of northern Texas (southeastern Wichita County including Wichita Falls/Sheppard AFB, and central Foard / southeastern Hardeman / northwestern Wilbarger counties) with 1–4 inches already fallen and additional heavy rain possible until late morning. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for west-central Texas (including San Angelo, Abilene, Tom Green, Taylor and surrounding counties) and residual across much of Oklahoma.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC / 7:52 AM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 151300Z–161200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys (isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). No Slight or higher. No convective watches currently valid; Watch 685 expired overnight. No change in severe category from the morning desk.
High Wind Warnings remain in effect across southern California (Inland Empire, San Diego County mountains and valleys, Santa Ana Mountains and foothills) with northeast gusts to 65–70 mph possible through Saturday, and in New Mexico (Albuquerque metro and southern valleys). Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the Sierra Nevada and central/northern California. These are non-convective wind and fire-weather products.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic basin quiet. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (rapidly intensifying, Tropical Storm Watch for Mexican coast) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat.

Live Status

As of the Thursday afternoon desk, October 15, 2026 (approximately 8:20 AM PDT / 10:20 AM CDT / 1520Z), the dominant threat remains the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over west Texas under anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record) and a slowing cold front. Active Flash Flood Warnings are live this morning over northern Texas near Wichita Falls. SPC Day 1 is Marginal only over the Ohio Valley with no watches. Flood Watches cover residual saturated ground across Oklahoma and expanding west-central Texas. High Wind Warnings are in force across parts of southern California and New Mexico but are non-severe.

Hotspots

West Texas Moderate ERO: WPC Day 1 maintains Moderate Risk from just east of Big Bend along the Rio Grande across the Stockton Plateau to the Pecos River Valley and north past the I-10 corridor into the Concho Valley. Areal averages 3–5 inches with local maxima higher possible along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains. Highest concern for flash flooding in poor drainage, low-water crossings, and urban areas of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos. Flood Watches through Friday morning cover much of this corridor including San Angelo and Abilene areas.

Northern Texas active Flash Flood Warnings: NWS Norman issued Flash Flood Warnings this morning for southeastern Wichita County (Wichita Falls, Sheppard AFB) until ~10:45 AM CDT with 2–4 inches already fallen, and for portions of Foard, Hardeman, and Wilbarger counties until noon CDT with 1–2 inches observed and up to 2 inches additional possible. Radar-indicated heavy rain ongoing. Turn around, don’t drown remains the immediate message.

Ohio Valley Marginal severe: SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk covers portions of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys including Indianapolis, Columbus, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Akron. Isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado possible this afternoon and evening near the warm front under modest buoyancy and strong shear. No watches. Overnight LSRs included scattered tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia.

Just Hit

Overnight into early Thursday, LSRs through approximately 0418 UTC documented damaging wind gusts of 60–75 mph across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (power lines, sheet metal, trees). Residual flooding and saturated soils persist across central and southwestern Oklahoma from prior training convection under the previous Moderate ERO. No new convective watches issued this morning.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:20 AM PDT / 10:20 AM CDT / 1520Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy and TS Simon offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk Ohio Valley (isolated wind / brief tornado). No watches. Overnight LSRs mainly wind damage TX/OK and trees OH/WV. Slight Risk closed overnight.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk west Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Pecos / Concho). Active FFWs northern TX (Wichita Falls area). Flood Watches ongoing OK and west-central TX.
Other	Wind / Fire	High Wind Warnings southern CA and NM. Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe wind and fire weather.

Restoration Read

Primary ticket is water over west Texas under the continuing Moderate ERO, with active Flash Flood Warnings this morning near Wichita Falls and expanding Flood Watches into west-central Texas. Residual flooding and saturated ground across central and southwestern Oklahoma from overnight training convection support additional extraction and drying claims. Wind damage claims possible from overnight gusts in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (power lines, sheet metal, trees). Ohio Valley Marginal supports only isolated tree or minor wind claims if storms organize this afternoon. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate from convective restoration.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. The Moderate ERO over west Texas and active Flash Flood Warnings in northern Texas keep the flood lane open. Severe remains Marginal only with no watches. No U.S. tropical threat.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of the Mid-Atlantic for Friday afternoon and evening (damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). WPC Day 2 carries a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of west Texas continuing the front’s slower progression. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Outlook and watches (spc.noaa.gov), WPC Day 1 ERO (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS WWA summary and Flash Flood Warnings (weather.gov). Morning desk: Storm Updates: West Texas Moderate Flood — Oct 15 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:20 AM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest under leftover shear and moisture.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has dissipated. Its surface low elongated into a trough over West Virginia and was absorbed. Residual rainfall of 1 to 3 inches remains possible overnight across portions of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic under a WPC Marginal Risk, but the heavy rain threat is decreasing. Earlier overnight totals of several inches produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina; residual Flood Warnings persist in some elevated areas.

In the Southwest and Great Basin, residual moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel supports a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The highest residual risk is across western Arizona, with a broader Slight covering northwest Arizona into portions of the Great Basin. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar in southern Utah, where thunderstorms have produced heavy rain and observed flash flooding with considerable damage threat. Vulnerable locations include burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and urban areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada.

No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood: Primary live residual under WPC Slight Risk from Rachel remnants. Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion National Park, Forsyth burn scar) with observed flooding and considerable damage threat. Highest residual risk western Arizona into Great Basin. Burn scars, canyons, and urban areas remain vulnerable.

Mid-Atlantic residual severe and flood: Organized window closed after Tornado Watch 681 expired. Multiple preliminary tornadoes in central and eastern North Carolina under survey (Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville, Raleigh area). Residual Marginal Risk near the coast this evening. WPC Marginal residual rain possible overnight.

Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual: Decreasing flood risk as Isaias dissipated. Significant overnight rainfall already produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina. Residual Marginal Risk overnight.

Just Hit

Sunday afternoon tornadoes across central and eastern North Carolina, including observed near Atkinson (Pender County), preliminary or confirmed near Candor (Montgomery — building destroyed), Clarendon (Columbus — structures destroyed), Fayetteville area (Cumberland), Jordan Lake (Chatham), and near Raleigh/Clayton. NWS surveys ongoing. Residual Flash Flood Warnings active in southern Utah from Rachel moisture. Power outages from earlier Isaias impacts continue, with Florida and Alabama still seeing the largest numbers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Rising queries tied to today’s residual: “power outage near me” (driven by residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast), “tornado near me” / North Carolina tornado reports, residual flood and flash flood queries for the Southwest and Utah burn scars. Trends data partial this run.

Restoration Read

Coastal wind and surge work from the Friday night Destin landfall remains closed. Immediate residual tickets are inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance from Isaias rain in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, plus survey of the afternoon North Carolina tornadoes. On the West Coast, residual flash flooding under the Rachel Slight Risk, especially burn scars and canyons in southern Utah and western Arizona. Distinguish residual Appalachian work from Southwest residual. Power outage restoration continues across the Southeast.

What This Is Not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. The organized hazards were the earlier SPC Slight Risk and now-expired Tornado Watch 681 in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia (with multiple tornado reports), and the WPC Slight (Moderate dropped) excessive-rainfall risk in the Great Basin and Southwest from Rachel remnants. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warning has been issued for U.S. land this run.

Looking Ahead

Isaias remnants are fully dissipated. SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast for Monday. Rachel remnants will continue residual heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the Southwest before further dissipation. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Mid-Atlantic tornado reports and any further contraction of the Southwest flood products.

Sources and How to Verify

Primary sources, dated Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 12, Marginal Risk Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest) and Current Watches (no watches currently valid; most recently #681); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Slight Risk Great Basin and Southwest, updated 0056 UTC); NHC final products for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias and Remnants of Rachel. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link this desk and the morning desk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

Tropical: Post-tropical Isaias · TS Watch Rachel · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Isaias is now a post-tropical cyclone near 32.8N 86.8W as of the 10:00 AM CDT NHC final advisory, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama, moving NNW at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. All tropical warnings discontinued; WPC continues flood tracking.
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk has shifted eastward from the Panhandle/Big Bend to eastern Georgia into western and southern South Carolina for a tornado threat this afternoon into evening. No convective watches currently in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk for the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina) and portions of Southern California, down from yesterday’s High near the landfall corridor.
Tropical Storm Rachel is approaching with a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Center near 25.5N 119.6W as of 8:00 AM PDT, 520 miles SSW of San Diego, moving NE at 22 mph with 60 mph winds.
Overnight and morning Flash Flood Warnings were active in parts of coastal South Carolina and north-central Georgia. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land.

Live Status

As of Saturday morning, October 10, 2026, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues north-northwest across central Alabama. The primary organized threats have shifted to residual heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes on the eastern side of the circulation, plus the approaching Tropical Storm Rachel on the West Coast. SPC’s 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook maintains a Slight Risk from eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina. A couple of tornadoes are possible today over that corridor. WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC) holds Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians and over portions of Southern California. No tropical storm or hurricane warnings remain for the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Georgia into Western/Southern South Carolina

SPC Slight Risk covers roughly 34,500 square miles and about 3.5 million people, including Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, North Charleston, and Mount Pleasant. Midday analysis places the remnant circulation over central Alabama with a warm front extending eastward to the South Carolina coast. Destabilization in the warm sector supports scattered storms this afternoon. Enlarged hodographs support storm-scale rotation. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily during the diurnal heating cycle. A Marginal Risk continues tonight as the warm front advances northward, though uncertainty is high.

Restoration read: tornado swaths remain narrow. Staff as local surveys. Damaging wind gusts are possible with stronger cells. The broader water ticket is the continuing rain bands.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians

WPC Moderate Risk targets upslope regions from northeast Georgia into the Upstate of South Carolina and western North Carolina. Strong upslope flow with residual Isaias moisture supports heavy precip totals in the 3–5 inch range, with maximum totals of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. HREF and RRFS show high probabilities for 2-, 3-, and 5-inch amounts. Coastal Carolinas retain potential for isolated 5+ inch totals from coastal convergence. Flash flooding, landslides, and river rises are the primary concerns.

Restoration read: this is the main freshwater flood desk today. Wet drywall, extraction, and structural issues from saturated soils. Prioritize high-terrain and poor-drainage areas. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Southern California and Rachel

Tropical Storm Rachel is moving northeast at 22 mph toward northern Baja California and the Southern California border. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border northward to the San Diego/Orange County line. WPC Moderate Risk covers portions of Southern California as anomalous moisture is drawn northeast. 1–3 inches, locally higher, are forecast, increasing flash and urban flood potential tonight into Sunday. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for a few severe wind gusts and low-end tornado potential in the Lower Colorado River Valley into south-central Arizona as the system interacts with shear and moisture. Life-threatening surf and rip currents continue.

Restoration read: urban flooding and wind damage over higher terrain are the tickets. Coastal impacts are primarily surf and minor flooding rather than surge. No widespread structural wind damage expected from tropical-storm-force winds.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central Alabama / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 35 mph; NHC final advisory	Inland NNW at 10 mph
Eastern GA / western & southern SC	Brief tornadoes, damaging wind	SPC Slight	Active this afternoon into evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / W NC / Upstate SC)	Flash flood, 3–10 in possible	WPC Moderate ERO	Upslope heavy rain ongoing
Southern California coast / SW	Heavy rain, TS winds possible, surf	TS Watch; WPC Moderate ERO	Rachel approaching tonight
Desert Southwest / AZ	Severe wind gusts, isolated tornado	SPC Marginal	Increasing with Rachel interaction

What this means for restoration teams

Primary exposure is flash flooding and landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture, plus isolated tornado and wind damage in the eastern Georgia / South Carolina Slight Risk zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel drives urban and flash flooding, strong winds over higher terrain, and coastal surf impacts tonight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage is expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Stage extraction crews for the Appalachians and monitor San Diego for tonight’s rain onset.

Rising queries

huracán isaias
post-tropical cyclone isaias
tropical storm rachel
Isaias flood Appalachians
Rachel San Diego

Storm Hubs

Isaias 2026: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC 10 October 2026. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (0748 UTC / 426 AM EDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias final advisory (10:00 AM CDT). NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory 54 (8:00 AM PDT). NWS WWA summary. Previous desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Landfall Destin — Oct 9.

Informational only — not an official warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Post-Tropical Rachel (TS Watch) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What changed

Tornado Watch 679 expired at 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:57 p.m. CDT) dropped to Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening across the Carolinas and a few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest. No convective watches remain valid.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias as of WPC/NHC Public Advisory 18 at 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, is near 35.0N 86.7W, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Position advanced well north of the Birmingham area reported earlier; flood threat continues into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 p.m. PDT is near 30.0N 116.5W, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and pressure 987 mb. Now classified post-tropical; Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches with local 6–10 inches still possible; southern California rain increasing with Rachel moisture.
Active Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western North Carolina (including Lake Lure / Chimney Rock area in Buncombe, Henderson, Rutherford counties) and central South Carolina (Aiken, Edgefield, Lexington, Saluda). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona (Pima, Pinal, Yuma counties) associated with Rachel moisture.

Live status

As of Saturday evening, October 10, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across central Tennessee toward the Tennessee Valley while weakening. The primary organized threat has shifted to residual heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially upslope into the Southern Appalachians. SPC notes scattered convection with an isolated tornado threat this evening across parts of the Carolinas along the eastern flank, supported by strong low-level shear, though the Slight Risk and Tornado Watch have expired. WPC Moderate excessive rainfall covers the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for extreme Southern California coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel is driving increasing rainfall and thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest, with Moderate flash flood risk on far southern California and isolated severe wind gusts possible in southern Arizona.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy precip totals of 3–5+ inches, with maximums of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings are active near Lake Lure and Chimney Rock; additional minor flooding and isolated landslides remain possible overnight. Flood Watches cover much of the region.

Carolinas (eastern Georgia residual into South Carolina and southern North Carolina): SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening with rotating cells in the moist airmass east of the Isaias remnants. Strong low-level shear supports brief tornadoes with semi-discrete cells, mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings continue in central South Carolina. Threat diminishes overnight as the system moves northeast.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch remains on the San Diego County coastal areas. WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall covers portions of Southern California as Rachel moisture is drawn northeastward; probabilities of 2+ inches highest in far southern California overnight. Burn scars, dry washes, and urban areas most at risk. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona. Rachel expected onshore tonight.

Just-hit

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, Friday evening as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds before rapidly transitioning to post-tropical and weakening across the Florida Panhandle into Alabama and now Tennessee. Residual flash flooding and wind damage occurred Friday night into Saturday. Tornado Watch 679 produced confirmed tornadoes in Screven County, Georgia, and Allendale County, South Carolina, before expiring. Rachel remains offshore with no U.S. landfall yet; the center is expected to approach the Baja/border region tonight. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are ongoing.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)	Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall; active FFWs	Live, ongoing overnight
Carolinas (E SC / S NC)	Isolated tornadoes, residual heavy rain	SPC Marginal (tornado)	Evening threat, diminishing overnight
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, severe wind gusts	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego coastal); active SVR in AZ	Rachel approaching; increasing tonight
Central TN / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 25 mph	Inland NE at 16 mph, weakening
Rest of CONUS	No other organized severe	Marginal only in noted areas; no watches	Quiet elsewhere

Restoration read

Primary restoration exposure is flash flooding and potential landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture under the Moderate Risk, plus localized tornado and wind damage tickets from earlier in the Georgia–South Carolina zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel will drive urban and flash flooding, strong winds, and coastal surf impacts overnight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Sequence water extraction after the heaviest rates pass; do not stage in active flood or warning zones.

What this is not

This is not an active landfalling hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast. Isaias is post-tropical and inland; all tropical warnings have been discontinued. Rachel is post-tropical with a Tropical Storm Watch for extreme Southern California, not a hurricane or storm-surge warning. Severe risk is Marginal, not Slight or higher, and no convective watches are valid. The organized hazards are the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, residual isolated tornado threat in the Carolinas, and severe wind gusts in southern Arizona.

Looking ahead one day

Sunday (Day 2): SPC holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina, Virginia, southeast Maryland) for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the Isaias remnants continue northeast. Heavy rain and flash flood potential persist in the Appalachians. Rachel is expected to move inland over northern Baja and the southwestern United States tonight, bringing continued heavy rain, flash flooding, and strong winds to the Southwest and Great Basin before dissipating early Sunday. Isaias remnants are forecast to continue weakening.

Rising queries

huracán isaias
isaias remnants flood
tropical storm Rachel San Diego
post-tropical Rachel
Southern Appalachians flash flood

Storm hubs

Isaias 2026 hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026 hub: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook 0100 UTC 11 October 2026 (Marginal Risk Carolinas and Desert Southwest). WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (2331 UTC, Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California). NHC/WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 p.m. CDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 p.m. PDT). Active NWS Flash Flood Warnings (Greenville-Spartanburg, Columbia) and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Tucson, Phoenix). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026