Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 13

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

• SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC Nov 13 / 0649 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026 by Guyer/Mead, valid 131300Z–141200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. No material change from the morning pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-13-morning). Earlier Slight Risk over the Mid-Atlantic remains closed. No convective watches valid.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0053 UTC Nov 13) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. No Moderate or above. National flood lane remains Quiet. No change from morning.
• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (700 AM EST Fri Nov 13): Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. No change.
• Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Sierra Nevada (California and Nevada) for heavy snow Friday into Saturday. Blizzard Warnings continue along the northern Alaska Arctic coast through Sunday. Residual high surf and freeze products elsewhere are local. Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO.
• Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon across southern Arizona into far west Texas and portions of coastal northern California, but effective shear and instability remain too limited for organized severe potential. No MDs elevating the severe lane.

Live Status

As of the afternoon desk on Friday, November 13, 2026 (approximately 7:30 AM PST / 10:30 AM EST / 1530Z), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook holds no severe thunderstorm areas through early Saturday. Isolated low-topped storms may develop later today over southern Arizona and New Mexico with a chance of small hail or gusty winds, but organized severe is not expected. Additional isolated lightning is possible near the California coast and Pacific Northwest with the advancing shortwave, but coverage stays limited.

WPC Day 1 ERO remains below the 5% threshold for rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. No elevated national flood products are active. Residual Winter Storm Warnings cover elevated terrain of the Sierra Nevada above roughly 6,000–7,000 feet from this morning through Saturday morning, with heavy wet snow possible (locally 1–2 feet along the crest) and ridge gusts of 50–90 mph. Travel over I-80, Highway 50, and other Sierra passes will be difficult Friday afternoon into evening. Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for the northern Arctic coast of Alaska through Sunday morning, with strong winds and reduced visibility.

Hotspots

• Sierra Nevada (CA/NV): Winter Storm Warnings in effect for heavy snow Friday into Saturday. Highest totals above 7,000 feet. Friday evening commute over mountain passes is the main travel concern.
• Northern Alaska Arctic coast: Blizzard Warnings continue through Sunday morning. Strong winds gusting 40–60 mph with blowing snow and low visibility.
• Southern Arizona / far west Texas: Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Modest shear and instability limit severe potential. Small hail or gusty winds possible with the strongest cells, but no organized threat.

Just Hit

Earlier Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk and associated convection closed overnight as storms moved offshore. Residual Flash Flood Warning for southeastern Monmouth and northeastern Ocean Counties, New Jersey expired Thursday evening. No new significant local storm reports elevating national lanes today.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse. Primary short-term ticket is winter weather in the Sierra Nevada: heavy wet snow, strong winds, and difficult mountain travel Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Monitor for downed trees, power outages, and road closures on I-80 and Highway 50. Alaska Arctic coast remains under blizzard conditions with restricted travel. No organized severe wind, hail, or tornado damage expected. No elevated flash flood threat on the national Day 1 scale. Standard quiet-day posture elsewhere: residual freeze products in the Southeast and high surf along the Pacific coast are local.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. Nothing at SPC Slight or above on the latest Day 1. No WPC ERO Moderate or above. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Earlier Mid-Atlantic Slight Risk has closed. It is not a high-end severe or flood outbreak.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 (valid Saturday) also holds no severe thunderstorm areas. Winter Storm Warnings for the Sierra continue into Saturday morning. A second shortwave may bring additional precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. No significant tropical development expected. Day 3 holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Texas, but that is outside the current Day 1 window.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable. No invented queries.

Sources

• SPC Day 1 Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
• WPC Day 1 ERO: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
• NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
• NWS WWA summary: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all
• This morning’s desk: https://tygartmedia.com/quiet-pulse-2026-11-13-morning/

Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. Turn around, don’t drown.