Tag: Storm Prediction Center

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 6 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 6 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with the November 5 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet) and this morning’s earlier version: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 6 / 0700 PM CST Thursday November 5 2026 by Lyons, valid 060100Z–061200Z) continues “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Severe storms remain unlikely tonight. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC November 6 / discussion 725 PM EST November 5 by Bann, valid 01 UTC Nov 06–12 UTC Nov 06) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. Prior Marginal areas closed. No Moderate or higher.
    • National Weather Service Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from late tonight through Saturday morning for potential 2–4 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts. Residual river Flood Warnings continue elsewhere (e.g., Missouri). High Wind and Freezing Spray Warnings in Alaska. No active flash flood warnings elevating the national Day 1 lane. Prior Georgia FFW remains expired.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America as of 100 AM EST Friday November 6. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. A non-tropical low south of Bermuda continues with low-to-medium chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics while moving east; no U.S. land threat.
    • Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC Day 1 or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Day 2 Outlook (1730 UTC November 5) holds Marginal Risk for eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia Friday, outside this Day 1 window. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible overnight from Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and Carolinas with the front, but no severe probabilities.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk on Friday, November 6, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 9:15 PM PST November 5 / 05:15 UTC November 6), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.” Isolated thunderstorms are possible later tonight from the Mid-Atlantic region northward into southern New England and southward into the Carolinas ahead of a weak front, with strong winds aloft but limited near-surface buoyancy. No severe risk areas drawn. No watches currently valid. Homepage confirms Day 1 No Severe; Day 2 Marginal for eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

    WPC Day 1 ERO confirms no excessive rainfall areas of note. Probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is under 5 percent nationally. Residual showers and thunderstorms may occur along the eastern front, but no organized flood threat on Day 1. NWS national products include the Flood Watch for MA/RI and routine marine and winter advisories elsewhere. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above Quiet.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:15 PM PST Nov 5 / 05:15 UTC Nov 6 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: no active systems. Non-tropical low south of Bermuda low/medium chance subtropical characteristics, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 6): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms unlikely tonight. No watches valid. Isolated non-severe storms possible Mid-Atlantic to Carolinas. Day 2 Marginal eastern Carolinas/SE VA.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO: probability of exceeding flash flood guidance <5%. Prior Marginals closed. Flood Watch MA/RI for Friday into Saturday. Residual local Flood Warnings do not elevate national Day 1 lane.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable this run. No invented queries.

    Restoration Read

    No open restoration ticket. No organized severe wind, tornado, or widespread flooding indicated on current Day 1 products. Prior Southeast Marginal and north Georgia flash flood warning remain closed. Residual isolated thunderstorms may produce brief gusty winds or localized heavy rain overnight along the eastern front, but nothing at the level that drives a damage claim under Quiet Pulse criteria. Flood Watch for southeastern New England signals a Day 2 concern. Monitor routine weather.gov updates for any local evolution.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. Nothing at SPC Slight or above. No WPC ERO Moderate or above. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 5

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 5

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 6 / 0700 PM CST Thursday November 5 2026 by Lyons, valid 060100Z–061200Z) continues “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Severe storms remain unlikely tonight. Prior Southeast Marginal remains closed. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC November 6 / discussion 725 PM EST November 5 by Bann, valid 01 UTC Nov 06–12 UTC Nov 06) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. Prior Marginal areas closed. No Moderate or higher.
    • National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning for Fannin, Gilmer, northwestern Union, and Murray Counties in north-central Georgia remains expired. No active flash flood warnings of note on the CONUS severe or flood lanes. A Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Residual Flood Warnings persist on some western rivers.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. NHC confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A broad non-tropical low a few hundred miles south of Bermuda holds a low (30%) chance through 48 hours and medium (40%) through 7 days of acquiring subtropical characteristics while moving slowly eastward; no U.S. land threat.
    • Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Isolated stronger wind gusts possible overnight in DelMarVa into southern NY/NJ with fast-moving storms, but no severe probabilities.

    Live Status

    As of the afternoon desk on Thursday, November 5, 2026 (approximately 9:17 PM PST / 05:17 UTC November 6), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.” Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and the Carolinas ahead of a weak front. Strong winds aloft will produce fast-moving storms, but near-surface buoyancy remains limited; the surface-based threat and risk of damaging winds is low. Occasional stronger gust possible overnight across DelMarVa into southern NY/NJ. No organized severe threat. No mesoscale discussions in effect.

    WPC Day 1 holds no excessive rainfall risk areas. The overnight Flash Flood Warning in north Georgia has expired. Residual runoff or minor urban ponding is possible where earlier heavy rain fell, but no widespread flash flood threat remains on Day 1. No tropical component.

    Hotspots

    Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and Carolinas: Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening into overnight along and ahead of the front. Fast-moving cells under strong winds aloft, limited surface-based threat after dark. Occasional gusty winds possible; no severe area. Flood Watch active for portions of MA/RI. Day 2 WPC carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of southeastern New England.

    Southern Kansas / northern Oklahoma residual: Scattered elevated thunderstorms earlier under a mid-level shortwave. Elevated nature limited surface severe potential. No risk area remains.

    North-central Georgia residual: Prior Flash Flood Warning expired. Ocoee River and surrounding terrain saw heavy overnight rain; monitor for lingering high water on roads and small streams. No active warning.

    Just Hit

    Overnight into early Thursday: Flash Flood Warning and localized flooding in north-central Georgia (Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Murray Counties) from thunderstorms producing 1–2 inches per hour. Some reports of high water and impacts along the Georgia-Tennessee line. Activity has ended; warning expired. Local wind reports (trees, wires) in the Mid-Atlantic with the frontal passage.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:17 PM PST / 05:17 UTC Nov 6 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: low (30% 48h) to medium (40% 7d) chance for western/central Atlantic non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 6): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Southeast Marginal closed. Isolated storms possible Mid-Atlantic/New England. No watches or MDs valid. Occasional stronger gust possible overnight DelMarVa/NY/NJ only.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO: probability of exceeding FFG less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal areas closed. Georgia FFW expired. Flood Watch MA/RI. No active CONUS flash flood warnings of note. Residual minor runoff possible. Day 2 Slight Risk SE New England.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable this run. No invented queries.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse. Primary residual ticket is minor water intrusion or high water on roads from the expired north Georgia Flash Flood Warning and earlier Southeast rainfall, plus isolated tree/wire work from frontal winds in the Mid-Atlantic. No organized severe damage expected. No tropical component. Monitor local NWS for any lingering advisories and the Day 2 Slight flood risk in southeastern New England. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead

    Day 2 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Slight Risk across parts of southeastern New England (Rhode Island into southeastern Massachusetts). Rain continues from the Northeast to the Southeast into Friday. No severe areas expected on Day 1. Monitor for potential flood concerns in New England overnight into Friday.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100 UTC November 6), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion ~725 PM EST November 5), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-morning.

    Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. This desk does not issue warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 4 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 4 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

    What Changed

    • Compared with the November 4 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-11-04-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal): Latest SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 5, issued 0657 PM CST Wednesday November 4, valid 050100Z–051200Z) continues a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. Isolated sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado remain possible this evening. No upgrade to Slight or higher. Prior Lower-to-Mid Mississippi Valley Marginal has shifted east and contracted further.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0053 UTC November 5 / discussion 759 PM EST November 4 by Chenard, valid 01 UTC Nov 05–12 UTC Nov 05) holds a Marginal Risk for portions of Southeast Florida, the Southern Appalachians, and a small area of Southeast Colorado. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight areas remain closed.
    • National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for Fannin, Gilmer, northwestern Union, and Murray Counties in north-central Georgia until 3:00 AM EST Thursday November 5. Radar-indicated thunderstorms producing 1–2 inches per hour with additional 1–2 inches possible. Isolated flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, and roads ongoing or expected.
    • No convective watches are currently valid. SPC confirms none as of late evening UTC November 4 / early November 5. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook notes a non-tropical low a few hundred miles south of Bermuda with 30% chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics in 48 hours and 50% in 7 days, moving slowly eastward; no U.S. threat.
    • Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential remains in the Southeast Marginal; flood lane holds at Marginal with one active FFW in north Georgia.

    As of the morning desk on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PST / 05:16 UTC November 5), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 5) states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.” Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible.

    What Is Live

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z November 5 / 6:57 PM CST by Lyons) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across portions of the Southeast. Evening radar and satellite show a band of predominately disorganized convection along and ahead of the cold front from eastern TN to south-central AL, with a more isolated cluster over eastern GA. Modest instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) and marginal deep-layer shear (30–35 kt) support occasional stronger updrafts, clusters, and transient supercells. Low-end risk for a brief tornado or damaging gust this evening. Storms should weaken as the environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the western Carolinas overnight. No watches or active mesoscale discussions elevating the threat beyond Marginal.

    WPC Day 1 ERO maintains Marginal Risk for Southeast Florida (low-end, isolated heavy rates on saturated soils but reduced coverage expected), Southern Appalachians (training showers with embedded thunderstorms possible, terrain influence), and a small added Marginal in Southeast Colorado (slow-moving convection under upper low, localized 1–3 inches on wet antecedent conditions). Active Flash Flood Warning in north Georgia as noted. Residual concerns possible elsewhere but no higher risks.

    No convective watches valid. NHC confirms no named tropical cyclones or U.S. coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.

    Hotspots

    Southeast (AL/GA/SC, east TN): Marginal severe risk for isolated wind gusts and a brief tornado this evening along the cold front and in shear-favorable zones. Overlaps with Marginal ERO in southern Appalachians and the active Flash Flood Warning in north-central Georgia for heavy rain rates.

    Southeast Florida: Marginal ERO continues for any remaining isolated cells with heavy rates on multi-day saturated soils. Coverage expected lower than prior days; risk is highly localized.

    Southeast Colorado: Small Marginal ERO for localized heavy rain from slow-moving convection this evening into overnight. Not widespread; minor flood impacts possible on wet ground.

    Just-Hit

    Flash Flood Warning active in north-central Georgia (Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Murray Counties) issued 8:55 PM EST November 4 for ongoing or imminent flash flooding from thunderstorms. Preliminary details limited; monitor local NWS for updates. No widespread severe reports elevated beyond the Marginal outlook as of desk time. Prior Mississippi Valley activity has shifted east.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:16 PM PST / 05:16 UTC Nov 5 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30%/50% chance for western/central Atlantic non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics over 48h/7 days, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 5): MARGINAL RISK portions of the Southeast. Isolated/sporadic wind/brief tornado possible. No watches valid. No reports received. Prior MS Valley Marginal shifted east and contracted.
    FloodMarginalWPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Florida, S Appalachians, SE Colorado. Active FFW north-central GA until 3 AM EST Thursday. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight closed.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with isolated severe potential and residual/localized flood concerns. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in north-central Georgia under the active Flash Flood Warning, plus any isolated wind or brief tornado damage in the Southeast Marginal Risk area. Southeast Florida residual urban flooding possible but downward-trending. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, and tree/wind damage. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Severe threat expected to diminish further as the front progresses eastward overnight into the Carolinas. Flood concerns remain localized and Marginal. Drier air building behind the system. No significant tropical development threatening U.S. land in the near term.

    Rising Queries

    tornado warning, flash flood warning Georgia, southeast storms, Florida rain, severe weather Southeast.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 5), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 759 PM EST November 4), National Weather Service (Flash Flood Warning north Georgia and watches/warnings summary), National Hurricane Center (Tropical Weather Outlook). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-04-afternoon.

    Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 05 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 05 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with the prior version of this morning desk and the afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 6 / 0700 PM CST Thursday November 5 2026 by Lyons, valid 060100Z–061200Z) continues “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Severe storms remain unlikely tonight. No upgrade. Prior Southeast Marginal remains closed. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC Friday November 6 / discussion 725 PM EST November 5 by Bann, valid 01 UTC Nov 06–12 UTC Nov 06) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. Prior Marginal areas closed. No Moderate or higher.
    • Overnight catastrophic flash flooding in McCaysville, Georgia (Fannin County) and Copperhill, Tennessee (Polk County) produced a Flash Flood Emergency, record crest of approximately 18.05 feet on the Toccoa/Ocoee River (exceeding the 1990 record), dozens of rescues, city closures, and a state of emergency. Warnings have expired or been cancelled as waters recede. Residual local impacts do not elevate the national Day 1 ERO or severe lanes.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. A non-tropical low south of Bermuda holds low-to-medium chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics while moving east; no U.S. land threat.
    • Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible overnight from Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and Carolinas with the front, but no severe probabilities drawn.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk on Thursday, November 5, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 7:14 PM PST / 03:14 UTC November 6), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.” Isolated thunderstorms are possible later tonight from the Mid-Atlantic region northward into southern New England and southward into the Carolinas ahead of a weak front, with strong winds aloft but limited near-surface buoyancy. No severe risk areas drawn. No watches currently valid. Day 2 outlook carries a Marginal Risk for eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia on Friday.

    WPC Day 1 ERO confirms no excessive rainfall areas of note. Probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is under 5 percent nationally. Residual showers and thunderstorms may occur along the eastern front, but no organized flood threat on Day 1. The overnight Flash Flood Emergency for McCaysville/Copperhill has expired. Waters are receding after the record crest. NWS national products include scattered residual river Flood Warnings in the West, High Wind Warnings in Alaska, and routine advisories elsewhere. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above Quiet.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~7:14 PM PST / 03:14 UTC Nov 6 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: no active systems. Non-tropical low south of Bermuda low/medium chance subtropical characteristics, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 6): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms unlikely tonight. No watches valid. Isolated non-severe storms possible Mid-Atlantic to Carolinas.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO: probability of exceeding flash flood guidance <5%. Prior Marginals closed. Overnight Flash Flood Emergency McCaysville GA/Copperhill TN expired after record crest and rescues; residual local impacts only.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable this run. No invented queries.

    Restoration Read

    No open national restoration ticket under Quiet Pulse criteria. The overnight catastrophic flash flooding in north-central Georgia and southeastern Tennessee (McCaysville/Copperhill) produced significant local impacts—rescues, structural flooding, debris, and a state of emergency—but warnings have expired and waters are receding. Residual cleanup and minor river flooding elsewhere do not drive a new organized claim. No severe wind or tornado probabilities. Monitor weather.gov for local residual updates. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. Nothing at SPC Slight or above. No WPC ERO Moderate or above. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 4

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 4

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

    What Changed

    • Compared with the November 3 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-11-03-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): Latest SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 5, issued 0657 PM CST Wednesday November 4, valid 050100Z–051200Z) continues a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. Isolated sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado remain possible this evening. No upgrade to Slight or higher. Prior Lower-to-Mid Mississippi Valley Marginal has shifted east and contracted.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0053 UTC November 5 / discussion 759 PM EST November 4 by Chenard, valid 01 UTC Nov 05–12 UTC Nov 05) holds a Marginal Risk for portions of Southeast Florida, the Southern Appalachians, and a small area of Southeast Colorado. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight areas have remained closed.
    • National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for Fannin, Gilmer, northwestern Union, and Murray Counties in north-central Georgia until 3:00 AM EST Thursday November 5. Radar-indicated thunderstorms producing 1–2 inches per hour with additional 1–2 inches possible. Isolated flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, and roads ongoing or expected.
    • No convective watches currently valid (SPC confirms none as of late evening). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook notes a non-tropical low a few hundred miles south of Bermuda with 30% chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics in 48 hours and 50% in 7 days, moving slowly eastward; no U.S. threat.
    • Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential remains in the Southeast Marginal; flood lane holds at Marginal with one active FFW in north Georgia. No new storm reports received.

    As of the afternoon desk on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (approximately 9:18 PM PST / 05:18 UTC November 5), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.” Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible across parts of the Southeast this evening.

    What Is Live

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z November 5 / 6:57 PM CST by Lyons) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across portions of the Southeast. Evening radar and satellite show a band of predominately disorganized convection along and ahead of the cold front from eastern TN to south-central AL, with a more isolated cluster over eastern GA. Modest instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) and marginal deep-layer shear (30–35 kt) support occasional stronger updrafts, clusters, and transient supercells. Low-end risk for a brief tornado or damaging gust this evening before the environment stabilizes overnight over eastern GA and the western Carolinas. No watches or active mesoscale discussions elevating the threat beyond Marginal.

    WPC Day 1 ERO maintains Marginal Risk for Southeast Florida (low-end, isolated heavy rates on multi-day saturated soils with reduced coverage expected), Southern Appalachians (training showers with embedded thunderstorms possible, terrain influence), and a small Marginal in Southeast Colorado (slow-moving convection under upper low, localized 1–3 inches on wet antecedent conditions). Active Flash Flood Warning in north Georgia as noted. No higher risks.

    No convective watches valid. NHC confirms no named tropical cyclones or U.S. coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.

    Hotspots

    Southeast (AL/GA/SC, east TN): Marginal severe risk for sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado this evening along the cold front and in shear-favorable zones. Overlaps with Marginal ERO in southern Appalachians and the active Flash Flood Warning in north-central Georgia for heavy rain rates.

    Southeast Florida: Marginal ERO continues for any remaining isolated cells with heavy rates on multi-day saturated soils. Coverage expected lower than prior days; risk is highly localized.

    Southeast Colorado: Small Marginal ERO for localized heavy rain from slow-moving convection this evening into overnight. Not widespread; minor flood impacts possible on wet ground.

    Just-Hit

    Flash Flood Warning active in north-central Georgia (Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Murray Counties) issued 8:55 PM EST November 4 for ongoing or imminent flash flooding from thunderstorms. SPC reports page shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received for the November 4 day as of desk time. Prior Mississippi Valley activity has shifted east. A short-lived Tornado Warning was issued earlier in central Alabama but expired without elevated reports.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:18 PM PST / 05:18 UTC Nov 5 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30%/50% chance for western/central Atlantic non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics over 48h/7 days, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 5): MARGINAL RISK portions of the Southeast. Isolated/sporadic wind/brief tornado possible. No watches valid. No reports received. Prior MS Valley Marginal shifted east and contracted.
    FloodMarginalWPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Florida, S Appalachians, SE Colorado. Active FFW north-central GA until 3 AM EST Thursday. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight closed.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with isolated severe potential and residual/localized flood concerns. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in north-central Georgia under the active Flash Flood Warning, plus any isolated wind or brief tornado damage in the Southeast Marginal Risk area. Southeast Florida residual urban flooding possible but downward-trending. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, and tree/wind damage. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Severe threat expected to diminish further as the front progresses eastward overnight into the Carolinas. Flood concerns remain localized and Marginal. Drier air building behind the system. No significant tropical development threatening U.S. land in the near term.

    Rising Queries

    tornado warning, flash flood warning Georgia, southeast storms, Florida rain, severe weather Southeast.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 5), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussions), National Weather Service (Flash Flood Warning north Georgia and watches/warnings summary), National Hurricane Center (Tropical Weather Outlook). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-03-afternoon. No morning desk published for November 4.

    Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 3

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 3

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-03-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 (2000 UTC November 3, issued 0200 PM CST) holds the Marginal Risk from the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys into the Mid Mississippi Valley (~213,741 sq mi). No upgrade or contraction of note.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0058 UTC Wednesday November 4 / discussion 808 PM EST November 3 by Chenard) maintains the Slight Risk across portions of Mississippi and Tennessee and over parts of Southeast Florida. Considered a drop to Marginal based on progressive line and lower rates but kept Slight for potential low-level jet uptick and training overnight.
    • No convective watches currently valid. Prior Plains Tornado Watches expired. Preliminary LSRs remain limited to three tree-down wind reports (Magnolia AR, Doyline LA). Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in northern Broward County FL (until 1100 PM EST) and Coconino County AZ (Havasu Creek basin, extended until 900 PM MST).
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. Western Atlantic disturbance holds low formation chances; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.

    As of the afternoon desk on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC November 4), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC November 3) states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.” Isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain possible this afternoon and tonight from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

    What Is Live

    SPC Day 1 (2000Z November 3 / 2:00 PM CST) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) covering ~213,741 square miles and ~17.5 million people, including Memphis, Nashville, St. Louis, Des Moines, and Little Rock. Strongest activity focused in advance of a speed max across northwest Louisiana with a few supercell structures and bowing segments expected to spread eastward into the Ark-La-Miss this evening. Low-level shear has peaked; threat is isolated wind damage and a tornado or two into tonight toward northwest Alabama. Farther north into the Mid Mississippi Valley, buoyancy is limited; any isolated low-topped supercells or line segments carry a lower-end wind threat.

    WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 01 UTC November 4 – 12 UTC November 4) holds a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) from portions of central Mississippi into central Tennessee where eastward-moving convection may pose an isolated to scattered flash flood risk through the overnight hours. A small Slight Risk also covers parts of Southeast Florida for conditional flash flooding along the urban corridor. Residual Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings remain active in parts of Florida and Arizona. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    No convective watches are currently valid. Mesoscale discussions from earlier in the day have expired. Preliminary local storm reports for today include tree-down reports 2 S Magnolia (Columbia County, AR) and 1 N Doyline (Webster County, LA). No tornado or hail reports received.

    Hotspots

    Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys (AR/LA/MS/TN/KY): Marginal severe (isolated wind/brief tornado) overlapping Slight excessive rainfall. Training risk noted over Mississippi into Tennessee overnight with increasing low-level jet. Primary residual concern is localized flash flooding and tree/wind damage on progressive line segments.

    Southeast Florida: Small Slight Risk ERO for additional heavy downpours on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. Active Flash Flood Warning for northern Broward County until 1100 PM EST; residual Flood Warnings continue. Localized urban/street flooding remains possible.

    Mid Mississippi Valley (MO/IA) and residual Arizona: Northern edge of the Marginal Risk with limited buoyancy supporting only isolated low-topped activity. Separate residual Flash Flood Warning continues for the Havasu Creek basin in Coconino County, Arizona.

    Just-Hit

    Preliminary LSRs (as of the SPC today page, 1200 UTC November 3 – 1159 UTC November 4): wind reports of trees down on AR-19 south of Magnolia (Columbia County, AR) at 1815/1850 UTC and on LA-164 near Doyline (Webster County, LA) at 1908 UTC. No tornado or hail reports received. Prior Plains activity has cleared eastward.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC Nov 4 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: low chance for western Atlantic disturbance; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (2000Z Nov 3): MARGINAL RISK Lower MS/TN into Mid MS Valley (~214k sq mi). Prior Plains Slight closed. No watches valid. Isolated wind/brief tornado possible.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk MS/TN and SE Florida. Active FFWs Broward FL and Coconino AZ. Residual Flood Warnings. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with an elevated residual flood lane and isolated severe potential. Primary short-term ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast Florida under the Slight ERO, on already saturated soils from multi-day rainfall, plus minor tree/wind damage from isolated gusts in the Marginal Risk area. Monitor active Flash Flood Warnings in Broward County FL and residual water in Arizona. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, and residual coastal flooding. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Day 2 ERO shows Marginal Risk remaining over Southeast Florida and from the Tennessee Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians. Severe threat is expected to diminish further as the system progresses east. Drier conditions building behind the front across much of the Plains and Mid-South.

    Rising Queries

    tornado warning, flash flood warning, florida flooding, mississippi valley storms, southeast florida rain.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z November 3, today’s LSRs), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 808 PM EST November 3), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood/Flash Flood Warnings including Broward FL and Coconino AZ), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet, no tropical cyclones). This morning’s desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-03-morning.

    Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 03 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 03 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the November 2 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 has dropped from Slight Risk across the southern and central Plains to a Marginal Risk from the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Overnight tornado watches over KS/OK/TX expired. No current convective watches as of late evening UTC November 3 / early November 4.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (latest discussion 808 PM EST Tue Nov 3 / ~0058 UTC Wed Nov 4) maintains a Slight Risk from portions of central Mississippi into central Tennessee and over parts of Southeast Florida. Residual flood warnings continue in Florida and Arizona.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. A western Atlantic disturbance has low (10% in 48 hours, 30% in 7 days) chance of subtropical development; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. No named storm.
    • Active Flash Flood Warning remains for northern Broward County, Florida (issued 857 PM EST Nov 3), and Flash Flood Warning extended for Havasu Creek basin, Arizona. No Slight or higher SPC risk, no Moderate or higher WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold.
    • Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Isolated severe potential remains marginal this evening and tonight.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (evening confirmation ~9:14 PM PST / 05:14 UTC November 4), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 4 cycle, issued 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 3) states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.” Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible this evening and tonight across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Prior Plains Slight Risk has closed.

    The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Mississippi and Tennessee and over parts of Southeast Florida. Convection is generally progressive, but low-level jet and moisture transport may support some training overnight over central MS into central TN, keeping a lower-end Slight risk. Southeast Florida has a conditional flash flood risk along the urban corridor. No Moderate or higher risk.

    National Weather Service watches and warnings include an active Flash Flood Warning for northern Broward County in southeastern Florida until 1100 PM EST (radar-indicated heavy rain, 2-3 inches already fallen, additional 1-2 inches possible), and an extended Flash Flood Warning for the Havasu Creek basin in Coconino County, Arizona (river gauge rise). Additional Flood Warnings persist across Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Utah. No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are currently in effect. No tropical cyclone products threaten the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PST / 05:14 UTC Nov 4 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: low chance (10% 48h / 30% 7d) of subtropical development for western Atlantic disturbance south of Bermuda; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 4): MARGINAL RISK Lower to Mid MS Valley. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential this evening/tonight. No active watches. Prior Plains Slight closed.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk portions of MS/TN and SE Florida. Active FFW northern Broward FL and Havasu Creek AZ. Residual river flooding continues. No Moderate or higher.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable this run. Related interest centers on Florida flooding, Election Day weather, Mississippi Valley storms, and flash flood Florida.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with an elevated residual flood lane. Primary short-term ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in northern Broward County, Florida, and residual water over the Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys under the Slight Risk, on already saturated soils especially along the Florida east coast. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential under the Marginal Risk over the Mississippi Valley through tonight. Overnight Plains severe reports have closed. No tropical restoration drivers.

    Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Plains Severe — Nov 2

    Storm Updates: Plains Severe — Nov 2

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Enhanced · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 has been updated. Earlier cycles (including 1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) carried an Enhanced Risk across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The latest 0100 UTC November 3 outlook (issued 0700 PM CST November 2 / 0100Z November 3, valid 030100Z–031200Z) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, with QLCS tornado potential and damaging winds. Tornado Watches 701, 702, and 703 remain active covering portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC November 3, discussion 802 PM EST November 2) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of central and southern Florida, focused along the east coast. The prior Moderate Risk over the Four Corners / Southwest has been removed; Plains flash-flood risk was lowered and the Slight removed with this update as storm mode is progressive.
    • Tropical lane remains closed. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A western Atlantic disturbance has a 30 percent chance of subtropical development over the next 7 days but no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Active Tornado Watches 701 (expires 0400 UTC Nov 3), 702 (expires 0500 UTC), and 703 (expires 0900 UTC) plus mesoscale discussions confirm ongoing severe potential with embedded rotating elements and possible gusts above 70 mph. Preliminary LSRs include hail reports near Norman, Moore, and Kingfisher, Oklahoma, and wind gusts to 59–61 mph near Hobart, Oklahoma, and Elkhart, Kansas. No confirmed tornado reports in the latest summary.
    • Nothing material upgraded beyond Slight on the severe or flood lanes. The Enhanced window has closed; the overnight progression into Missouri and Arkansas continues under the Slight.

    Live Status

    As of the afternoon desk on Monday, November 2, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC November 3), the national picture centers on the southern and central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 3 cycle) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.” Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into tonight, with the threat impacting western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight. A line of storms is tracking east-northeast across central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas under 65–70 knots of deep-layer shear and mid-level jet support. Discrete cells near the Red River carry supercell potential. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk across central and southern Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Hotspots

    • Southern and central Plains (Oklahoma, Kansas, northwest Texas): Primary focus under SPC Slight Risk and active Tornado Watches 701–703. Ongoing linear mode with embedded mesovortices capable of QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds to 70+ mph. Further south near the Red River, discrete supercells possible with hail, wind, and tornado risk as the low-level jet ramps up. Expect the severe threat to progress eastward into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.
    • Central and southern Florida: WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, focused along the east coast. Low-level easterly flow and coastal convergence support localized extreme rainfall potential overnight despite decreasing coverage. Residual Flash Flood Warnings noted earlier in Broward and Palm Beach counties.
    • Residual Southwest: Prior Moderate excessive rainfall and Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona (including burn scars and river gauges) have largely wound down. Isolated residual flooding possible on saturated soils, but not the dominant lane today.

    Just-Hit

    Preliminary SPC local storm reports for the current period include hail near Norman, Moore, and Kingfisher, Oklahoma (up to 1.25 inches), and measured wind gusts to 59–61 mph near Hobart, Oklahoma, and Elkhart, Kansas. Tree limbs and a trampoline reported damaged in Rooks County, Kansas. No confirmed tornado reports in the latest filtered summary reviewed. Tornado Watch 701 issued at 1925 UTC November 2; additional watches 702 and 703 issued later. Downstream considerations remain for eastern Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC Nov 3 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30% chance of subtropical development for a western Atlantic disturbance over 7 days; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 3): SLIGHT RISK southern and central Plains (~134k sq mi). Earlier Enhanced over N-central OK / S-central KS closed. Tornado Watches 701, 702, 703 active KS/OK/TX. Ongoing line with QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat. MDs including 2435/2437.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk central and southern Florida (east coast focus). Prior Southwest Moderate closed. Plains Slight removed. Residual FFWs possible in FL and AZ.

    Restoration Read

    Primary short-term ticket is wind and possible tornado damage (roofs, siding, trees, power lines, outbuildings) across central Oklahoma into southern Kansas under the active watches and ongoing line. Secondary is localized flash flooding and urban ponding in central and southern Florida under the Slight ERO. Residual Southwest water extraction possible but lower priority. No named tropical restoration file. Stage for overnight progression into Missouri and Arkansas.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and active Tornado Watches are open. WPC holds Slight, not Moderate or higher. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. Informational only — not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    SPC Day 2 outlook (valid 031200Z–041200Z) holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from east Texas and the Ark-La-Miss to the Mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered storms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes, primarily with embedded line segments and limited buoyancy. WPC Day 2 points to continued localized heavy rain potential. The Plains severe window should diminish overnight into Tuesday as the system progresses east. Monitor for residual flooding on already wet ground.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 3 / 0700 PM CST November 2, Tornado Watches 701–703, Mesoscale Discussions, today’s LSRs), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 802 PM EST November 2), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet, Tropical Weather Outlook 700 PM EST November 2). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Nov 2 Morning

    Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Nov 2 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the November 1 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-01-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate): SPC Day 1 has evolved. Earlier cycles on November 2 carried an Enhanced Risk across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The latest 0100 UTC November 3 outlook (issued 0700 PM CST November 2, valid 030100Z–031200Z) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains.
    • A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, with QLCS-type tornado potential maximized in embedded rotating elements and damaging winds, including possible gusts above 70 mph with bowing segments. Tornado Watch 701 remains in effect for portions of central and southern Kansas, western and central Oklahoma, and northwest Texas.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC November 3) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of central and southern Florida, focused along the east coast. The prior Moderate Risk over the Four Corners / Southwest has been removed; Plains flash-flood risk was lowered as storm mode is progressive.
    • No named tropical cyclones. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A western Atlantic disturbance has a near-zero percent chance of development in 48 hours and 30 percent over 7 days, well offshore, with no U.S. land threat or watches/warnings.
    • Active Tornado Watches and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings live in the Plains corridor. Flash Flood Warnings active in parts of Florida. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for portions of South Dakota and New Mexico.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk on Monday, November 2, 2026 (updated late evening PST / early November 3 UTC), the national picture centers on the southern and central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 3 cycle) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.” Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into tonight. Severe storms will also affect western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.

    On water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is evident in the southern High Plains with cyclonically curved southwest flow in place over the southern and central Plains. A 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed from southern New Mexico extending northeastward into western Oklahoma. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing to the east of the mid-level jet from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are mostly in the lower to mid 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Strong deep-layer shear of 65 to 70 knots at Oklahoma City supports continued severe potential as the line segment organizes and moves eastward.

    So far across Oklahoma, the dominant storm mode has been linear, and discrete supercell development has failed to materialize. Within the ongoing line, tornado potential is maximized with embedded rotating elements. A few QLCS-type tornadoes still appear possible as this line moves eastward across central/northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas this evening. A wind-damage threat accompanies the line. Further south into southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, cells have been more discrete, with a couple of supercells ongoing near the Red River. Severe wind gusts, hail and potentially a few tornadoes remain possible. In west-central and north-central Texas, a band of strong thunderstorms is developing near a surface trough with MLCAPE 2000 to 2500 J/kg; primary threats are severe wind gusts and hail.

    Tornado Watches remain active covering portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Mesoscale discussions note the ongoing line with potential for embedded intensification. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued, including for Montague County in north central Texas. Overnight local storm reports are expected as the system progresses eastward into Missouri and Arkansas.

    Flood risk has moderated. WPC maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of central and southern Florida, with the main focus along the east coast. Overall coverage and magnitude of heavy rainfall should be lower overnight, though low-level easterly flow and instability continue to support localized extreme rainfall potential on saturated soils. Localized flash flooding is possible overnight from portions of Texas into Iowa, but primarily rate-driven and urban as the convective line is progressive. Flash Flood Warnings remain active in parts of Florida (including Brevard, Indian River, and Broward Counties) and residual in Arizona from earlier activity. High Wind Warnings continue across portions of the South Dakota foothills and southern New Mexico mountains through early Tuesday.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of late evening PST / early Nov 3 UTC 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: near 0% / 30% formation chance for western Atlantic disturbance over 48h / 7 days; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 3): SLIGHT RISK southern and central Plains (~134k sq mi). Earlier Enhanced closed. Tornado Watches active KS/OK/TX. Damaging winds, hail, few QLCS tornadoes possible into tonight. Active warnings.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight residual central/southern FL east coast. Prior Four Corners Moderate removed. Isolated progressive rain risk TX-IA. Active Flash Flood Warnings FL residual AZ. High Wind Warnings SD/NM.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Dominant ticket is severe weather damage across the southern and central Plains under the Slight Risk, with potential for tornadoes (QLCS type), damaging winds to 70+ mph, and hail as the line progresses overnight into Missouri and Arkansas. Secondary is residual flash flooding in Florida and high wind impacts in South Dakota and New Mexico. No widespread catastrophic flooding expected. No named storm hub. Informational only — not an official warning. Follow local NWS offices and official products.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook, NWS watches/warnings, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook, NHC.

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Moderate Flood — Nov 1

    Storm Updates: Southwest Moderate Flood — Nov 1

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 31 afternoon pulse (quiet-pulse-2026-10-31-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC November 2 / 6:41 PM CST November 1, 2026, valid 020100Z–021200Z) has opened a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Threat of severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes this evening into the overnight. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already issued for portions of central New Mexico including the Albuquerque area.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (discussion 733 PM EST November 1, valid 01Z November 2–12Z November 2) holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners region, including high-end Moderate across the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains, with widespread Moderate through canyon areas of northwest Arizona into southwestern Utah. Upgrade from the prior Slight. Atmospheric river / pineapple express on saturated soils. Active Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona (Tucson, Flagstaff, Paria River, etc.).
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (700 PM EST November 1) states tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No named tropical cyclones. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
    • Flood Watches remain widespread across Arizona, portions of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida (Treasure Coast / Palm Beaches). Residual river and flash flooding impacts continue on already saturated Southwest soils from recent multi-week wet pattern.
    • Severe lane opened to Slight and Flood upgraded to Moderate. Dominant ticket is the Moderate excessive rainfall and live flash flooding across the Four Corners / Arizona. Severe wind and tornado potential secondary but live in New Mexico this evening.

    Live Status

    As of the afternoon desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 7:14 PM PDT / 03:14 UTC November 2), the national picture centers on the Southwest. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook confirms a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Water vapor shows a mid-level trough with strong southwesterly flow; storms developing in higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and a line expected to organize and move east-northeastward. Surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F support moderate instability. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m²/s² supports tornado potential with embedded supercells. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Mesoscale Discussion 2424 noted. No watches currently listed as valid in the latest public products reviewed, but warnings are live.

    The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners. An anomalously strong atmospheric river is driving highly anomalous moisture (PWATs 4-6 sigma above normal) into the Southwest on already saturated soils from a multi-week wet period. High-end Moderate across the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains; widespread Moderate into canyon areas of northwest Arizona into southwestern Utah. Neighborhood probabilities for locally 5 inches or greater remain elevated. Dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars are most susceptible. Flash Flood Warnings active and extended in multiple Arizona counties, including life-threatening flooding on the Paria River and urban/stream flooding near Tucson and Flagstaff. Flood Watches cover large portions of Arizona and adjacent states through early Monday.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners / central and northern Arizona (flood primary): Moderate Risk excessive rainfall with active Flash Flood Warnings. Atmospheric river producing heavy rain rates on saturated ground. Impacts to creeks, washes, urban areas, and low-water crossings. Evacuations reported in areas such as Sedona / Oak Creek. Restoration exposure is water extraction, drying, and infrastructure from runoff.

    New Mexico into Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (severe): Slight Risk for severe wind and isolated tornadoes this evening through overnight. Line of storms organizing and moving east-northeast. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already covering Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with 60 mph gust potential. Possible 70+ mph gusts and line-embedded tornadoes farther east.

    East-central Florida (residual flood): Flood Watch in effect for Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday afternoon. Widespread 1-3 inches possible, isolated 5-7 inches where bands train. Saturated soils from recent rain. Slight Risk residual on WPC for portions of the Florida Peninsula.

    Just-Hit

    Multiple Flash Flood Warnings active or recently extended across Arizona (Tucson area, Flagstaff / Paria River, Graham/Greenlee, etc.) with radar and gauge indications of 1-2 inches already fallen and additional runoff on saturated soils. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Bernalillo, Santa Fe, and adjacent counties in central New Mexico with 60 mph wind gusts indicated by radar. Residual Flood Warnings and watches from prior rainfall continue in the Southwest. Florida coastal and inland flood concerns building with the ongoing disturbance.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~7:14 PM PDT / 03:14 UTC Nov 2 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 Slight Risk New Mexico into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe wind gusts and few tornadoes expected evening into overnight. Active SVR warnings in NM. No watches listed in latest products reviewed.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Four Corners (Mogollon Rim, San Juans, NW AZ into SW UT). Active FFWs in AZ. Flood Watches widespread Southwest and FL. Atmospheric river on saturated soils.

    Restoration Read

    Primary ticket is water across Arizona and the Four Corners. Stage for flash flooding, stream rises, and urban ponding on already wet ground. Secondary is wind damage (roofs, siding, trees, power) from the New Mexico severe line this evening into the Panhandles overnight. No tropical restoration file. Florida residual water possible but lower priority than the Southwest Moderate.

    What This Is Not

    Not a named tropical cyclone landfall or coastal surge event. Not an Enhanced or higher severe risk. Not a High excessive rainfall risk (Moderate is the top open lane). Not a quiet day.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe risk areas for Monday. WPC Day 2 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the east coast of Florida. Southwest flood threat should wind down as the atmospheric river shifts, but residual sensitivity remains on saturated soils. Monitor local NWS for lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    flood watch, flash flood warning, atmospheric river Arizona, Four Corners flooding, New Mexico thunderstorms.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 2), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 733 PM EST November 1), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-31-afternoon. No morning desk published for November 1.

    Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. This desk does not issue warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.