Tag: Storm Prediction Center

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

This is a live Tuesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The organized flood desk remains over southern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds two Marginal Risk corridors — much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and a portion of the Southeast that the 20Z update shifted farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama. No convective watches are currently valid. Restoration exposure this afternoon into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, isolated severe wind and marginally severe hail on the Utah corridor, locally severe gusts plus leftover flood axes in the Southeast and central Appalachians, and tree/wire work already on the board in Lauderdale County, Alabama.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Morning desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 (Morning).

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 2:56 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Halbert/Lyons; valid 222000Z–231200Z) keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts expected today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. The 20Z update moved the Southeast Marginal farther south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, where storms had already developed in an unstable airmass with steep low-level lapse rates.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 15:56:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Taylor/Chenard; valid 16Z Tue–12Z Wed) still holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico. WPC notes a potentially significant multi-day flood event over New Mexico and far southwest Texas, with 1–2 inches per hour rain rates this afternoon and training bands tonight. Neighborhood guidance: moderate chance of at least 3 inches (about 40–60 percent) and a low chance of at least 5 inches. Slight Risk axes remain over central to southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida stays a WPC Marginal urban-flood desk.

Live warning-scale water this afternoon includes NWS flash-flood warnings for parts of Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero in New Mexico, and Randolph/Webster in West Virginia — already hung as separate Tygart Media warning pulses. NWS also had a flood advisory for west-central Lee County, Alabama (Auburn/Opelika) into late afternoon and a severe thunderstorm warning earlier over Jackson and DeKalb Counties, Alabama.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Still the national flood desk. An upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels support a multi-day event. Afternoon is scattered thunderstorms and flash-flood potential; overnight guidance concentrates a rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Sacramento Mountains burn scars remain in the higher-impact language. Flash-flood warnings this afternoon already covered Lincoln, Socorro, Doña Ana, and Otero Counties.

Restoration read: water first, overnight worse than the afternoon pulse. Stage pumps and air movers before the shield organizes. Low-water crossings and burn-scar runoff fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor is the afternoon convective desk in the West. A potent shortwave over the western Great Basin and a belt of stronger mid-level flow from northern Arizona into central and northern Utah support scattered to numerous storms. Buoyancy stays modest (MLCAPE generally under 1,000 J/kg), but shear and cold mid-levels support organized cells, isolated large hail, and strong gusts off high bases and steep low-level lapse rates. Activity can spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening. Larger centers inside the earlier outlook footprint include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail, not a flood CAT. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before early evening. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cores only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians

SPC Marginal for the Southeast is a slow-moving cold front into a moist airmass. The 20Z update pulled the risk south and east into central Georgia and southern Alabama, matching storms already on radar. Weak shear keeps the mode multicellular and outflow-dominant; water-loaded downdrafts can still put 50–60 mph gusts on the ground. Today’s preliminary LSRs already show Lauderdale County, Alabama wind damage: power lines down west of Lexington around 1814 UTC, a power pole and lines on a vehicle west of Rogersville around 1835 UTC, and lines down at Lauderdale County High School and the adjacent parking lot around 1856 UTC (NWS Huntsville).

WPC Slight flood axes remain over southeast Virginia into South Carolina and West Virginia into southwest Virginia, where soils are already wet and flash-flood guidance is lower. Randolph and Webster Counties, West Virginia, carried a live flash-flood warning into the evening.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Alabama tree and wire jobs are already tickets. Charlotte-to-Atlanta language from this morning is not a derecho — treat each county warning as a local pulse.

Just hit

SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 22/1200 UTC–23/1159 UTC window (as of this afternoon hang) show no tornado reports and no hail reports yet. Wind reports on the board are Lauderdale County, Alabama: lines down 3 W Lexington; pole and lines on a vehicle 2 W Rogersville; lines down at Lauderdale County High School in Rogersville. Those are already restoration tickets — trees, wire, and possible vehicle/roof work — not a regional outbreak.

Monday night’s Appalachians–Southeast flash-flood pulse is aftermath. This afternoon’s live water is New Mexico and pockets of West Virginia, plus a Lee County, Alabama flood advisory earlier this afternoon.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, training rain tonight, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + live FFWs	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE / central GA / southern AL	Locally severe damaging gusts, trees/wire	SPC Marginal (shifted S/E at 20Z)	Live; AL LSRs already in
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight + WV FFWs	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico is the water CAT if the Moderate risk verifies overnight — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is already producing Lauderdale County tickets; treat Georgia and Alabama warnings as local, not a derecho. West Virginia water is a second flood desk on already-wet ground. Stage New Mexico before the overnight shield. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Post-tropical Fay is open Atlantic near the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. No convective watches are up. Do not invent a named CAT for Restoration Intel off this pulse.

Looking ahead

SPC’s current Day 2 outlook (Wednesday, September 23) is Marginal Risk as of the 1719 UTC issuance (Dean). Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this evening’s Utah and Southeast Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Tuesday, September 22, 2026: SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Halbert/Lyons, 2:56 p.m. CDT); SPC watches page updated 15:56:05 UTC (no watches valid; last watch 0674); SPC today’s LSRs (Lauderdale County, AL wind); WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1553 UTC (Taylor/Chenard); NWS flash-flood warnings for Lincoln/Socorro, Doña Ana/Otero, NM and Randolph/Webster, WV; NHC advisories (Fay remnant, Polo, Odalys). Morning desk: September 22, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC Day 1 ERO for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast corridor carried the pulse — NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings for southern and north-central West Virginia into southwest Virginia. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired/expiring into this morning (no active WV flash-flood warnings on the NWS alert feed at hang time). Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, plus a portion of the Southeast; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of southern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, wind and marginally severe hail this afternoon across the Utah corridor, leftover Appalachian water from Monday night, and locally severe gusts plus flood axes across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 221300Z–231200Z) places a Marginal Risk over much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. Outlook footprint ~196,000 square miles / ~24 million people. Larger Southeast centers in the risk area include Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Tue–12Z Wed) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico, with flood watches from noon MDT today through Wednesday afternoon/evening for large parts of New Mexico and far west Texas (NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa). WPC Slight axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina, and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida: WPC Marginal for localized urban flash flood.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk. Multi-day heavy rain starts today under an upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly tropical moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels. Daytime favors scattered storms; overnight trends toward a more concentrated rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Ensemble neighborhood guidance: 40–70% chance of more than 3 inches across New Mexico today; 2–4 inch max footprint through early Wednesday. Scattered to numerous flash floods expected, some locally significant, including Sacramento Mountains burn scars.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the overnight shield organizes. Burn-scar runoff and low water crossings fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor. Mid-level trough over the western Great Basin moves northeast across Utah through early evening. After early showers, heating steepens 0–2 km lapse rates; elongated hodographs support a few stronger cells with marginally severe hail. Isolated 60–75 mph gusts are the primary hazard. Activity can later spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before late afternoon. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cells only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians, plus Mid-Atlantic flood axes

SPC Marginal for the Southeast focuses on a slow-moving cold front from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians. Dewpoints upper 60s–lower 70s °F; afternoon MLCAPE about 1,500–2,500 J/kg. Weak shear; water-loaded downdrafts can produce locally severe gusts into early evening.

WPC Slight flood axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina (coastal convergence + backdoor front; neighborhood high for 3 inches, localized 5 inches possible) and West Virginia into southwest Virginia (wetter soils, lower flash-flood guidance, inverted trough). Farther north Mid-Atlantic: more stratiform 1–2 inches. South Florida WPC Marginal is a local urban-flood desk, not the national headline.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery sit inside the broader Southeast convective risk — local pulse desks, not a regional derecho.

Just hit

Monday afternoon into overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast carried the live severe and flash-flood pulse (already on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk). Overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings covered southern West Virginia / southwest Virginia (Welch, Pineville, Davy, McDowell, Wyoming, Buchanan; 1–3 inches radar-indicated) and north-central West Virginia along Buckhannon–Burnsville–Century / I-79 (1–3 inches). Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. No clean parsed SPC LSR list in this pass — do not invent points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, multi-day heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + flood watches	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
Southeast / southern Appalachians	Locally severe damaging gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood, lightning	WPC Marginal	Local
Appalachians–Southeast overnight	Flash flood (yesterday’s pulse)	Overnight FFWs (expired/expiring)	Aftermath / drying
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico and far west Texas are water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is local gusty warnings, not a derecho. Leftover Appalachian water from Monday night is aftermath. Stage before the overnight New Mexico rain shield; start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is mid-Atlantic open ocean and becoming post-tropical — not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: southern New Mexico flash flood, Utah–Colorado wind/hail, Southeast gusts, leftover Appalachian water.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Chenard); NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa flood watches; overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings; NHC advisories (Fay, Polo, Odalys).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 21, 2026 — Appalachians–Southeast Marginal / Central Appalachians Flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal + Central Appalachians Flood Slight — Monday, September 21, 2026

This is a live Monday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians and over the Texas South Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central Appalachians. Scattered severe thunderstorm warnings and flash-flood warnings remain active this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, Alabama, and West Virginia.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and localized heavy-rain pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall or organized derecho. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is wind-driven tree and roof work, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train or flash-flood warnings verify. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s Marginal Risk covers the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, with isolated damaging wind gusts of 50–60 mph the primary threat. A second Marginal area sits over the Texas South Plains where isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible later today. Mesoscale Discussion 2323 (issued 1938 UTC) covers the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin and notes watch issuance is unlikely; strongest storms may briefly produce large hail up to 1.25 inches and marginally severe wind.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook keeps a Slight Risk over the central Appalachians (expanded earlier to include more of West Virginia and southwest Virginia). Guidance supports 1–3 inches with locally higher amounts where cells train near a backdoor cold front and shortwave energy. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active or recently expired across portions of West Virginia, Ohio, and adjacent counties from overnight and early-morning convection.

Hotspot 1 — Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic fringe (WPC Slight + SPC Marginal)

This is the dual-threat corridor. Scattered thunderstorms continue along and south of a cold front stretching from southern Virginia west-northwest into northern Kentucky and southwestward. Highest coverage expected from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, with additional activity into southwest Virginia and West Virginia. Vertical shear is weak; storm mode is largely multicellular and outflow-dominant, but ample moisture (PW values over 2 inches) supports strong to locally severe gusts and flash flooding on saturated soils.

Cities and counties to watch: Charleston, Parkersburg, and surrounding West Virginia counties; southwest Virginia counties including Giles, Mercer, and Summers; portions of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio; Chattanooga and Knoxville metro fringes in Tennessee; northern Alabama counties including Madison and Marshall.

Restoration read: wind and water both in play. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews. Flash-flood warnings mean extraction and drying work may already be on the books by evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Texas South Plains and northeast Texas

Isolated to widely scattered storms continue near the intersection of a weak surface trough and cold front across the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. MD 2323 flags the potential for brief severe storms capable of large hail and marginally severe wind before dissipation this evening. A secondary area of higher thunderstorm coverage is expected over northeast Texas this afternoon and evening, where water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts are possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Lubbock, Midland, and surrounding South Plains counties; portions of northeast Texas near the Red River. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already fired this afternoon in the region.

Restoration read: hail and wind first. Check vehicle and roof damage reports quickly; these are short-lived cells but can produce ticket-scale damage in a single ZIP.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast scatter (Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi)

Ongoing multicell storms continue to produce local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60 mph wind and small to quarter-size hail. Coverage is highest from southeast Tennessee and northwest Georgia through northern Alabama into central/southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. Storms are moving relatively slowly or nearly stationary in places, increasing the local flash-flood and wind-damage potential.

Cities and counties to watch: Chattanooga, Huntsville, Birmingham metro areas; portions of the Carolinas and northern Georgia where warnings have been active this afternoon.

Restoration read: scattered wind and tree damage plus isolated water jobs. Treat each warning county as its own ticket rather than a regional event.

Just hit

Overnight and early-morning convection produced Flash Flood Warnings across portions of West Virginia and southeast Ohio, with residual river and stream rises still ongoing in some gauges. Yesterday’s High Plains activity (eastern Colorado into western Kansas) produced large hail reports up to baseball size and is already in the ticket pipeline for those counties. Local wind damage reports from trees and power lines continue to filter in from the Ohio Valley, Illinois, Missouri, Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone threat is in the National Hurricane Center outlook at this hour.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central Appalachians / WV–SW VA	Flash flood, damaging wind, trees	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Live warnings + overnight residual
Southeast / TN–AL–GA–MS–Carolinas	Damaging wind, isolated hail, lightning	SPC Marginal + local SVR	Scattered warnings active
Texas South Plains / NE TX	Large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal + MD 2323	Isolated cells, watch unlikely
Ohio Valley residual	Flooding from earlier rain	Local Flood Warnings	Aftermath / still in channel
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Hail on the South Plains is vehicle and roof impact. Heavy rain on the central Appalachians Slight Risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock where flash flooding verifies. Overnight West Virginia and Ohio water is already inside some buildings.

For teams near active warnings: stage before the next cell arrives, not after the first report. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this afternoon and evening, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Tennessee or West Virginia county, a flooded intersection where Appalachian cells train, isolated hail on the South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Tuesday the front continues to push south and east with another Marginal Risk possible over portions of the Southeast. Residual flooding in the central Appalachians may linger into Tuesday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal and Slight Risk areas are the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, September 21, 2026) and Mesoscale Discussion 2323; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning text for Charleston WV, Blacksburg VA, Huntsville AL, Morristown TN, Lubbock TX, and neighboring offices; SPC Local Storm Reports.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Monday morning Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal, Texas South Plains Hail Pulse — Monday, September 21, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians, and a second Marginal Risk over the Texas South Plains. Isolated damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are the main threat along the front this afternoon. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible later today on the Caprock. No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, last night’s eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas box, has expired.

These are county-scale thunderstorms, not a U.S. mainland tropical landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Restoration exposure today is leftover tree and roof work from last night’s Ohio Valley and High Plains cells, plus a new wind-damage pulse if the front fires this afternoon from Kentucky into West Virginia and Virginia. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

Overnight into this morning

Radar this morning shows a parade of three mesoscale convective vortices moving east over the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, mostly on the cool side of a cold front. That is leftover organization from Sunday night, not a new watch. Local storm reports on the SPC day that closed at 12 UTC Monday include no tornadoes. The hail corridor was eastern Colorado: golf-ball to baseball-size stones around Holyoke, Alvin, Genoa, Boyero, Wild Horse, Kit Carson, Eads, and south of Brandon in Phillips, Yuma, Lincoln, Cheyenne, and Kiowa counties. One social-media measurement near Brandon was 3.10 inches. A spotter windshield was damaged near Wild Horse. A separate 2.00-inch hail report came from Liberty in Union County, Indiana.

Wind reports overnight were the restoration ticket east of the High Plains. Trees and lines came down across Christian, Greene, Jasper, and Lawrence counties in southwest Missouri, including a tree on a house in Pierce City. Illinois reports included a shed roof in Jasper County, 64 mph at Olney-Noble Airport, and power-line damage near Witt, Ramsey, and Noble. Southwestern Ohio logged trees in Kettering, Bellbrook, and Greene County after midnight. After 3 UTC, NWS Charleston territory picked up trees and blocked roads in Vinton and Meigs counties, Ohio, and in Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer counties, West Virginia, including more than 1,200 customers without power along Highway 7 north-northeast of Syracuse. Separate tree-down reports ran through Anderson and Laurens counties in South Carolina, Walton County, Georgia, and a string of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Panhandle counties from Taylor and Iron City to De Funiak Springs and I-10 mile marker 70.

Flash flood warning posts already on this desk overnight covered pieces of Muskingum, Washington, Morgan, and Gallia counties in Ohio and Braxton plus north-central West Virginia. Those warnings were timed to expire in the early morning hours. Treat them as just-hit water, not a new outlook. Confirm county status on weather.gov before you treat a warning as still live.

What is live this morning

No SPC watches are valid as of 1136 UTC Monday. The Day 1 outlook valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday is Marginal only. The front this afternoon is forecast from northern Mississippi northeast to western Virginia. Dewpoints ahead of it run upper 60s to lower 70s from the lower Mississippi Valley into West Virginia. SPC expects scattered to numerous single-cell and multicell storms after peak heating, with the better flow on the northern edge of the risk — Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia. Stronger downdrafts can produce 50 to 60 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage before cells weaken in the early evening.

The Texas South Plains Marginal is a separate, isolated pulse. A front and residual outflow drape the Caprock this afternoon. Guidance supports scattered storms in a moist plume during peak heating, with a couple of stronger cells capable of large hail and severe gusts before they die in the evening.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page still carried Sunday’s discussion into the 12 UTC Monday valid end, with Slight Risk language over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley plus the northern High Plains from the prior period. That is the moisture that already produced last night’s Ohio–West Virginia flood warnings. Use the live WPC graphic and local NWS flash-flood products for today’s water overlay rather than treating Sunday’s Slight as a new box.

Hotspot 1 — Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the central Appalachians

This is the northern edge of today’s Marginal Risk and the part of the front with slightly stronger flow. Cities and counties to watch: Lexington and eastern Kentucky; Charleston, Huntington, Parkersburg, and the central West Virginia counties that already took trees overnight; western and northern Virginia including the Shenandoah and the Richmond-to-Charlottesville fringe of the outlook line. SPC maps the Marginal from near Greenville, Mississippi, northeast through Kentucky to near Parkersburg, then east toward Elkins, Charlottesville, and Richmond before dropping south through Raleigh and Athens toward Montgomery and Jackson.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Last night already put trees on roads and lines in Meigs, Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer. Another round of 50–60 mph gusts this afternoon is more of the same — roof, siding, service drops — not a regional derecho. If a cell trains on ground that flooded overnight, treat that ZIP as a water job by evening.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast ahead of the front

The same Marginal Risk covers central Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Instability can peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range from central Mississippi into western North Carolina, but deep-layer shear is weak. Mode is single cells and disorganized multicells. Sunday evening already produced trees in Anderson and Laurens, South Carolina; Monroe and Walton, Georgia; and the Florida–Alabama line. Today is a repeat isolated-wind desk, not a watch.

Restoration read: stage locally if your county is on the warm side of the front. Do not move a regional crew on a Marginal that SPC itself frames as isolated 50–60 mph gusts.

Hotspot 3 — Texas South Plains, plus leftover High Plains hail

The second Marginal sits from near Clovis and Hobbs across the Caprock toward Childress and Big Spring. Isolated large hail and severe gusts later today are the threat. That is not last night’s Colorado supercell corridor. Last night’s work is already on the books in Cheyenne, Kiowa, Lincoln, Yuma, and Phillips counties — baseball hail, damaged glass, and agricultural hits. Do not send the same crew to Lubbock this afternoon and Eads this morning without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Just hit

Sunday afternoon’s High Plains Slight Risk and Watch 674 are closed. The verified story there is large hail, not a tornado. Southwest Missouri trees, Illinois wind, Ohio–West Virginia overnight trees and flash-flood warnings, and scattered Southeast wind reports are the other closed tickets. Tropical Storm Fay is not a U.S. land story.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
KY / WV / VA / central Appalachians	Isolated damaging wind 50–60 mph, lightning	SPC Marginal	Afternoon pulse; no watch
MS / AL / GA / western Carolinas	Isolated wind, wet microbursts	SPC Marginal	Diurnal; no watch
Texas South Plains / Caprock	Isolated large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–evening
Eastern Colorado High Plains	Baseball hail, glass, crop	Watch 674 expired	Just-hit / aftermath
SW Missouri / Illinois / SW Ohio	Trees, lines, isolated structural	LSRs overnight	Just-hit
SE Ohio / north-central WV	Trees, flash flood leftover	Overnight FFWs expired or expiring	Aftermath / check county
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	Fay near the Azores; no U.S. formation	NHC TWO	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Fifty to sixty miles an hour is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Last night’s Colorado hail is a glass and roof-inspection desk in a handful of High Plains counties, not a regional CAT. Ohio and West Virginia water from overnight flash-flood warnings is extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock where water entered. Do not staff today’s Marginal as if Watch 674 were still up.

Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on leftover high water in southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kentucky or West Virginia county, a hailer on the Caprock, leftover trees from Sunday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. SPC Day 2 is also Marginal. Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 21, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0733 AM CDT); SPC current watches page updated 1136 UTC Monday with no valid watches and most recently issued Watch 674; SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260920 1200 UTC through 20260921 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Monday; National Weather Service warning text already logged on this desk for southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday, September 20 storm updates — Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Bent, Kiowa, and Prowers Counties, CO Until 6:30 PM MDT
Published: September 20, 2026, 4:47 PM PDT (5:47 PM MDT). The National Weather Service in Pueblo, Colorado, has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of southeastern Colorado — northwestern Prowers County, eastern Kiowa County, and northeastern Bent County — until 6:30 PM MDT tonight. The warned storm is packing golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts, with the NWS tagging the thunderstorm damage threat as CONSIDERABLE. This is the kind of storm that turns into roof, siding, and window claims by morning — and tornados can spin up quickly from storms like this one.

This is a live snapshot as of 4:47 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

Prowers County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Issuing office: NWS Pueblo, CO. Issued: 5:42 PM MDT, September 20, 2026. Expires: 6:30 PM MDT, September 20, 2026. Status: Active — certainty observed, urgency immediate, severity severe.

Per the NWS alert, at 5:42 PM MDT a severe thunderstorm was located near Eads, or 26 miles southwest of Cheyenne Wells, moving south at 35 mph.
- Hazard: golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
- Source: radar indicated.
- Impact (verbatim from NWS): “People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.”
Locations impacted include: Eads, Sheridan Lake, Neeoshe Reservoir, Sweetwater Reservoir, Chivington, Brandon, Neegronda Reservoir, and Queens Reservoir.

NWS Pueblo office page — NWS alert source

Kiowa County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

The same warning covers eastern Kiowa County, including the Eads and Sheridan Lake area where the storm was located at issuance. Same hazard package: golf ball size hail, 60 mph gusts, radar-indicated source, CONSIDERABLE damage threat. Kiowa County sits squarely in the storm’s southward track — residents and businesses in Eads and Sheridan Lake are in the immediate path.

Bent County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Northeastern Bent County is also included in this warning. The southward-moving storm at 35 mph puts the northeastern corner of Bent County — including the reservoir areas east of the county line (Neegronda and Queens Reservoirs are named impact locations) — in the window of impact through the 6:30 PM MDT expiry.

A note from the NWS tornado guidance in this alert: tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. The storm has a flagged “possible” tornado detection parameter. If you spot a tornado, go at once into the basement or a small central room in a sturdy structure.

Stay safe — hail and wind
- Get indoors now and stay there until the warning expires. Hail this size injures people and animals outdoors — that is NWS wording, not hype.
- Vehicles: hail damage to vehicles is expected. If you’re driving, pull off the road under solid cover if you can do so safely; never stop under an overpass on a highway — it blocks traffic and is dangerous for everyone behind you.
- Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. The NWS specifically flags that tornadoes can develop quickly from these storms, so treat the warning like a tornado drill: small central room, away from windows.
- Stay out of flooded roadways if heavy rain follows the storm — turn around, don’t drown.
- After the storm: stay away from downed power lines, watch for broken glass and scattered debris, and photograph any damage to your roof, siding, windows, and vehicles before you touch anything — documentation matters for insurance.
What this means for restoration teams

Golf ball size hail with a CONSIDERABLE damage-threat tag in a cluster of small southeastern Colorado towns is a classic roofing and exterior-repair demand spike. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows — and with 60 mph gusts, expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees on top of it. Calls will start tonight and keep coming for days as homeowners discover leaks and cracked shingles in daylight.

The play:
- Stage now, not tomorrow. Pre-position roofing repair materials, tarps, and window-boarding supplies for Eads, Sheridan Lake, and the surrounding county areas tonight. Emergency tarping calls are the first wave.
- Interior water follows roof damage. Hail-cracked shingles and wind-torn flashing let rain in — that means saturated drywall and insulation, and mold risk within 24–48 hours if wet materials aren’t dried. Treat every hail claim as a potential water-intrusion job.
- Keep an on-call rotation through the morning. Tornado-possible tagging means tree-fall and structural damage can’t be ruled out — be ready for emergency board-up alongside the roofing work.
- First-call capture: get the address, the damage source (hail, wind, or both), and which areas of the home are affected. Photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts.
Demand window: hail claims typically report within hours of the storm and keep coming for a week as adjusters get scheduled. The restoration contractor who tarps tonight often wins the mitigation job later.

FEMA & federal assistance

If damage is severe, the FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA app, or find a recovery center at fema.gov/drc. Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so.

Looking ahead

The warning expires at 6:30 PM MDT — but that is not the end of the story. Additional storms can redevelop along the same track this evening, and wind-tossed debris and weakened trees remain a hazard overnight. Watch for follow-up warnings from NWS Pueblo and check the Storm Prediction Center for updated outlooks. Water-intrusion calls tied to roof damage typically start within hours and continue for days as homeowners spot stains and leaks — contractors should expect the phone to keep ringing well past tonight.

Sources & how to verify
- NWS alert: Severe Thunderstorm Warning, NWS Pueblo CO, issued 5:42 PM MDT September 20, 2026
- NWS Pueblo office page
To verify for your own county or ZIP code: go to weather.gov, enter your ZIP, or check your local NWS office page for active alerts.

This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.
September 20, 2026
Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Bent, Kiowa, and Prowers Counties, CO Until 6:30 PM MDT
Published: September 20, 2026, 4:47 PM PDT (5:47 PM MDT). The National Weather Service in Pueblo, Colorado, has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of southeastern Colorado — northwestern Prowers County, eastern Kiowa County, and northeastern Bent County — until 6:30 PM MDT tonight. The warned storm is packing golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts, with the NWS tagging the thunderstorm damage threat as CONSIDERABLE. This is the kind of storm that turns into roof, siding, and window claims by morning — and tornados can spin up quickly from storms like this one.

This is a live snapshot as of 4:47 PM PDT. Conditions change fast — always verify with the National Weather Service for your specific county or ZIP code.

Prowers County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Issuing office: NWS Pueblo, CO. Issued: 5:42 PM MDT, September 20, 2026. Expires: 6:30 PM MDT, September 20, 2026. Status: Active — certainty observed, urgency immediate, severity severe.

Per the NWS alert, at 5:42 PM MDT a severe thunderstorm was located near Eads, or 26 miles southwest of Cheyenne Wells, moving south at 35 mph.
- Hazard: golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
- Source: radar indicated.
- Impact (verbatim from NWS): “People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.”
Locations impacted include: Eads, Sheridan Lake, Neeoshe Reservoir, Sweetwater Reservoir, Chivington, Brandon, Neegronda Reservoir, and Queens Reservoir.

NWS Pueblo office page — NWS alert source

Kiowa County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

The same warning covers eastern Kiowa County, including the Eads and Sheridan Lake area where the storm was located at issuance. Same hazard package: golf ball size hail, 60 mph gusts, radar-indicated source, CONSIDERABLE damage threat. Kiowa County sits squarely in the storm’s southward track — residents and businesses in Eads and Sheridan Lake are in the immediate path.

Bent County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Northeastern Bent County is also included in this warning. The southward-moving storm at 35 mph puts the northeastern corner of Bent County — including the reservoir areas east of the county line (Neegronda and Queens Reservoirs are named impact locations) — in the window of impact through the 6:30 PM MDT expiry.

A note from the NWS tornado guidance in this alert: tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. The storm has a flagged “possible” tornado detection parameter. If you spot a tornado, go at once into the basement or a small central room in a sturdy structure.

Stay safe — hail and wind
- Get indoors now and stay there until the warning expires. Hail this size injures people and animals outdoors — that is NWS wording, not hype.
- Vehicles: hail damage to vehicles is expected. If you’re driving, pull off the road under solid cover if you can do so safely; never stop under an overpass on a highway — it blocks traffic and is dangerous for everyone behind you.
- Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. The NWS specifically flags that tornadoes can develop quickly from these storms, so treat the warning like a tornado drill: small central room, away from windows.
- Stay out of flooded roadways if heavy rain follows the storm — turn around, don’t drown.
- After the storm: stay away from downed power lines, watch for broken glass and scattered debris, and photograph any damage to your roof, siding, windows, and vehicles before you touch anything — documentation matters for insurance.
What this means for restoration teams

Golf ball size hail with a CONSIDERABLE damage-threat tag in a cluster of small southeastern Colorado towns is a classic roofing and exterior-repair demand spike. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows — and with 60 mph gusts, expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees on top of it. Calls will start tonight and keep coming for days as homeowners discover leaks and cracked shingles in daylight.

The play:
- Stage now, not tomorrow. Pre-position roofing repair materials, tarps, and window-boarding supplies for Eads, Sheridan Lake, and the surrounding county areas tonight. Emergency tarping calls are the first wave.
- Interior water follows roof damage. Hail-cracked shingles and wind-torn flashing let rain in — that means saturated drywall and insulation, and mold risk within 24–48 hours if wet materials aren’t dried. Treat every hail claim as a potential water-intrusion job.
- Keep an on-call rotation through the morning. Tornado-possible tagging means tree-fall and structural damage can’t be ruled out — be ready for emergency board-up alongside the roofing work.
- First-call capture: get the address, the damage source (hail, wind, or both), and which areas of the home are affected. Photo-document before mitigation, moisture-map every affected room, and keep the homeowner’s payment responsibility clear in writing before work starts.
Demand window: hail claims typically report within hours of the storm and keep coming for a week as adjusters get scheduled. The restoration contractor who tarps tonight often wins the mitigation job later.

FEMA & federal assistance

If damage is severe, the FEMA Helpline is 1-800-621-3362 (7 a.m.–10 p.m. local time, 7 days a week). You can also apply at DisasterAssistance.gov, through the FEMA app, or find a recovery center at fema.gov/drc. Basic eligibility: U.S. citizenship or qualified status, identity verification, proof of occupancy or ownership, and unmet needs not covered by insurance. Apply as soon as it is safe to do so.

Looking ahead

The warning expires at 6:30 PM MDT — but that is not the end of the story. Additional storms can redevelop along the same track this evening, and wind-tossed debris and weakened trees remain a hazard overnight. Watch for follow-up warnings from NWS Pueblo and check the Storm Prediction Center for updated outlooks. Water-intrusion calls tied to roof damage typically start within hours and continue for days as homeowners spot stains and leaks — contractors should expect the phone to keep ringing well past tonight.

Sources & how to verify
- NWS alert: Severe Thunderstorm Warning, NWS Pueblo CO, issued 5:42 PM MDT September 20, 2026
- NWS Pueblo office page
To verify for your own county or ZIP code: go to weather.gov, enter your ZIP, or check your local NWS office page for active alerts.

This post is for informational purposes and is not an official weather warning. Always follow instructions from local authorities and the National Weather Service.
September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026

This is a live Sunday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Sunday, September 20, 2026. The organized pulse is still the Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk over central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. As of 2013 UTC, no convective watches are valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have expired. Restoration exposure this afternoon and evening is damaging wind and large hail on the Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, leftover interior water where Midwest and Ohio Valley cells trained last night, and a local Florida flash-flood polygon that is not the national headline.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

The SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0244 PM CDT Sunday, September 20, 2026 and valid 202000Z–211200Z, holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. The official summary: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible this afternoon and evening across those two corridors. Isolated severe gusts and hail are also possible in parts of the southern Plains and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. The 20Z update said the forecast remained generally on track with only minor adjustments.

No watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 672. Mesoscale Discussion 2316, issued 0149 PM CDT Sunday and valid through 2115 UTC, covers northeast and eastern Colorado, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska. Language is severe potential, watch possible, with a 60 percent watch-issuance probability. Isolated storms over northeast Colorado, large hail probable, a few severe gusts possible by early evening. Most probable peak hail size in that MD is 1.50 to 2.50 inches. Most probable peak wind gust 55 to 70 mph.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Sunday and valid 16 UTC September 20 through 12 UTC September 21, keeps Slight Risks over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and over the northern High Plains. The 16Z update trimmed the northern edge of the Midwest Slight (northern Illinois, southern Iowa, northern Missouri) and kept the better confidence farther east into the Upper Ohio Valley, where antecedent 24-hour totals already ran 1 to 2 inches areal average and 3 to 4 inches locally. A separate Slight pocket remains focused over southwest South Dakota and the Black Hills on upslope flow and Saturday’s leftover wet ground.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Oklahoma

This is one of the two Slight Risk contours on the 2000 UTC outlook. A surface low sits over central Oklahoma along a cold front that arcs from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Oklahoma and back through the central Texas Panhandle. A shortwave trough is moving into western Oklahoma. The airmass ahead of the front is warm, moist, and moderately buoyant. Mid-level flow is stronger across Oklahoma than across Texas, which is why the organized severe corridor is drawn here rather than over the more disorganized Texas cells. Primary threat language is damaging gusts of 55 to 65 mph, with hail in the stronger cores.

Cities and counties to watch: Tulsa, Broken Arrow, Muskogee, Shawnee, Ardmore, and the rest of the central and eastern Oklahoma Slight contour. Oklahoma City sits near the western edge of the broader risk language even when it is not the center of the Slight.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, generators, and roof tarping before dark. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Do not treat this as a statewide outbreak. It is a corridor.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas and southwest Nebraska

This is the other Slight Risk plus MD 2316. Easterly low-level flow north of the surface front is holding 50s F dewpoints across eastern Colorado. Heating plus cool temperatures aloft support moderate destabilization. Storm coverage is expected to stay isolated to widely scattered because of cooler surface temperatures and leftover inhibition, but any storm that matures is favored to be supercellular. Primary severe hazard on the outlook is large hail of 1 to 2.5 inches. Isolated severe gusts are possible. Some lingering severe risk may develop over southeast Colorado late this evening and spread into the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

Cities and counties to watch: the Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado, Lamar and the High Plains counties, far western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska where left-split cells can throw hail. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already fired this afternoon in Dundy and Chase Counties, Nebraska.

Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. This is a few strong cells, not a line. Staff it as spot jobs — broken shingles, cracked skylights, vehicle and siding hits — not a regional CAT.

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers, plus a Florida polygon

WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on last night’s rain axis from central Illinois and east-central Missouri into the Upper Ohio Valley. Antecedent ground is already wet. Training or backbuilding later this evening and overnight could add 2 to 4 inches in the better cores. River and flash-flood products this morning and midday covered eastern Iowa (Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids, Kalona and the English River), the Parkersburg–Athens Ohio River corridor, Charleston and Huntington, Washington County, Pennsylvania, and eastern Ohio counties including Belmont, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, and Tuscarawas. The Des Plaines River near Russell, Illinois, has a new Flood Warning for minor flooding from this afternoon until further notice.

A separate local Flash Flood Warning this afternoon covers southwestern Suwannee County, Florida, with 2 to 3 inches already down. That is a North Florida urban and low-water-crossing desk, not the Slight Risk story.

Restoration read: yesterday’s water is already a ticket in Iowa, Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. Today’s new water, if it verifies, is more of the same corridor plus a standalone Florida polygon. Do not send the Oklahoma hail crew to the Ohio River without checking which county still has a warning.

Just hit

Saturday night’s Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670 (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), 671 (Colorado, Kansas), and 672 (Kansas, Missouri) are closed. Those are already on the books as wind and hail tickets across the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. Overnight and this morning’s Flash Flood Warnings along the Iowa–Illinois line and the Ohio River are extraction and drying work, not a new watch. This afternoon’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma wind corridor and High Plains hail cells under MD 2316.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / eastern Oklahoma	Damaging wind 55–65 mph, hail	SPC Slight	Live outlook; no watch
Eastern CO / far western KS / SW NE	Large hail 1–2.5 in, isolated severe gusts	SPC Slight + MD 2316 (watch possible)	Isolated supercells favored
Ozarks to Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging gusts, leftover water	SPC Marginal; WPC Slight flood	Scattered plus aftermath
Northern High Plains / Black Hills	Flash flood on wet ground	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Afternoon–overnight cells
SW Suwannee County, FL	Local flash flood	NWS Flash Flood Warning	Standalone polygon
Atlantic / EPAC vs. U.S. land	No U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: Fay far east-Atlantic; Odalys and TD 17-E over open Pacific	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Oklahoma wind at 55 to 65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. High Plains hail of 1 to 2.5 inches is shingle and auto work in a few counties, not a multi-state CAT. Midwest and Ohio Valley water from Saturday night is already inside some buildings. That mold clock started this morning, not this evening.

For teams near the Oklahoma Slight or the Colorado–Kansas MD: stage before the first warning, not after. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. For teams on the Iowa and Ohio River leftovers: you are already on yesterday’s tickets. Check which gauge is still in flood before you drive.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is in the far eastern Atlantic near 34.4°N, 32.7°W and is not a U.S. land threat this afternoon. Tropical Storm Odalys and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E are over the eastern Pacific, well offshore. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Oklahoma county, hail on the High Plains, leftover water in an Iowa or Ohio River town. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Monday’s SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued 1137 AM CDT Sunday, is a Marginal Risk from Mississippi to the central and southern Appalachians. Official summary: a few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to northern and central Mississippi. Coverage is isolated to widely scattered. Shear is expected to stay weak. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Slight is Monday’s story.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all date-stamped Sunday, September 20, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 2013 UTC); Mesoscale Discussion 2316; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center public page as of 2120 UTC; National Weather Service watch/warning text including Pittsburgh, Charleston, Chicago, La Crosse, and Tallahassee products. Morning desk for this calendar day: Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, MDs, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, Midwest Flood Leftovers — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker for September 20, 2026. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have all expired. The Storm Prediction Center’s 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible in a broader Marginal Risk from the southern Plains across the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

The flood story is leftover water, not a new Moderate Risk. Weather Prediction Center’s current Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is a Slight Risk over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, plus a separate Slight over the northern High Plains focused on southwest South Dakota. Flash Flood Warnings fired overnight into this morning from eastern Iowa and the Quad Cities through southeast Ohio and the Charleston–Huntington corridor in West Virginia.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood polygons. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm Fay is well southwest of the Azores. Tropical Storm Odalys is well southwest of Baja California. Verify the county warning at weather.gov before you roll.

What expired overnight vs what is live

Watch 670, issued Saturday afternoon over Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, expired at 0400 UTC Sunday (11:00 p.m. CDT Saturday). Watch 671 expired at the same hour. Watch 672, issued after 8:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expired at 0600 UTC Sunday (1:00 a.m. CDT). No convective watch is in effect as of this morning desk.

NWS warning text from Saturday evening still shows the pulse that those watches covered: a 61 mph gust at Childress, Texas; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over Childress and Collingsworth Counties in the Texas Panhandle; western Oklahoma counties including Harmon, Greer, and Beckham; west-central Kansas around Wichita, Wallace, Logan, and Greeley Counties with radar-indicated golf-ball hail; and a line that warned St. Joseph, Atchison, and neighboring Kansas–Missouri counties. Those products have expired. They are last night’s just-hit list, not today’s watch board.

SPC’s storm-report table for the new convective day (1200 UTC Sunday onward) showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs at the time of this desk. That is consistent with a quiet pre-dawn after the watches died. Afternoon initiation is the next check.

Hotspot 1 — Oklahoma Slight Risk, afternoon and evening

SPC: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma. A frontal zone that convection modulated overnight over the eastern Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will sag south. Mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints and heating support moderate buoyancy by mid-afternoon. Deep-layer shear is enough for organization.

The 1300 UTC outlook added an intensity Level-1 wind corridor over parts of southern Oklahoma where HREF/REFS guidance clustered 60–80 mph gusts on very steep 0–3 km lapse rates. Cities in or next to the Slight: Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Norman, Lawton, Wichita Falls. Storms are expected to develop from the Low Rolling Plains and Red River Valley and move northeast into central and eastern Oklahoma. Mixed mode early, with a chance the wind threat maximizes if a line segment organizes toward evening.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, glass, and tree crews for late afternoon, not after dark. Southern Oklahoma is the gust corridor if the Level-1 language verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas

A mid-level shortwave moves into the central High Plains today. Easterly low-level flow north of the front holds 50s dewpoints. Heating should remove inhibition by mid-to-late afternoon. Forecast soundings show straight hodographs and sizable CAPE in the hail-growth layer. A few supercells are the favored mode. Primary hazard is large hail, 1 to 2.5 inches, plus isolated severe gusts. Some lingering severe risk may drift into southeast Colorado late this evening and the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

Lamar sits inside the tighter probabilistic contour. Watch the I-70 and High Plains county warning areas from late afternoon. Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. Vehicle and roof claims, not a flood headline, unless a cell trains on a burn scar or a small basin.

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers

Yesterday’s WPC Moderate Risk over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana has been stepped down. The current Day 1 ERO, updated 0819 UTC Sunday and valid 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday, is a Slight Risk from southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri east into the Ohio Valley, with a second Slight over southwest South Dakota. Overnight convection is why Flash Flood Warnings were still live into Sunday morning for the Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids and eastern Iowa, Parkersburg–Athens, Hocking–Pickaway–Ross, and the Charleston–Huntington counties.

WPC language: the threat wanes from west to east this morning into early afternoon as the back edge of the rain moves off. Farther east, overnight convection near the Ohio River toward West Virginia terrain lowered flash-flood guidance. Some guidance rebuilds moderate-to-heavy rain later. Valley moisture supports locally 2–5 inch totals where cells train.

SPC also keeps a Marginal Risk from the Ozarks east into the Ohio Valley for isolated severe gusts and hail this afternoon south of a front near the I-70 corridor. That is a secondary wind desk, not the Slight.

Restoration read: Iowa, northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, southeast Ohio, and northwest West Virginia are extraction and drying work from last night. Check which county still has a warning. Do not treat the whole corridor as a new Moderate flood day.

Just hit

Saturday night’s organized pulse was the Kansas–Oklahoma–Texas Panhandle watch complex plus the Midwest and Ohio Valley rain. Documented hits in official warning text include the Childress airport gust near 61 mph and severe-warned storms over the eastern Panhandle, western Oklahoma, west-central Kansas hail cores, and the St. Joseph–Atchison line. Flood polygons stacked from eastern Iowa through the Ohio River counties overnight. Those tickets are already on the books.

Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma afternoon Slight and the High Plains hail corridor. The Midwest is aftermath plus a declining Slight flood overlay.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC level	Status this morning
Oklahoma / Red River	Severe wind, large hail	SPC Slight; Level-1 wind southern OK	Outlook — afternoon/evening
Eastern CO / far western KS	Large hail, isolated wind	SPC Slight	Outlook — mid/late afternoon
Ozarks to Ohio Valley	Isolated wind, hail	SPC Marginal	Outlook
SE Iowa / N Missouri / Ohio Valley	Flash flood leftover, urban water	WPC Slight ERO	Waning west to east
SW South Dakota / northern High Plains	Heavy rain	WPC Slight ERO	Today into tonight
Watches 670 / 671 / 672	Wind and hail Saturday night	Expired 0400–0600 UTC	Just-hit
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. land	Fay (Azores), Odalys (SW of Baja)	No U.S. land threat	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Oklahoma this afternoon is a wind-and-hail stage. If the southern Oklahoma Level-1 gust corridor verifies, expect roofs, siding, and trees in a relatively small footprint — staff it as county work, not a regional event. The High Plains Slight is hail first. Midwest and Ohio Valley crews already have water in buildings from Saturday night. The mold clock on those interiors started last night, not this afternoon.

Do not send the same crew to Tulsa hail and Cedar Rapids extraction without checking which county actually has a warning now. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall and not a Moderate flood day on the current WPC map. Fay and Odalys are named and far from U.S. land. Last night’s watches are closed. Today’s organized severe risk is two compact Slight areas plus a wide Marginal. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next official Day 1 convective update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. The front continues south through Oklahoma tonight. Isolated severe risk may linger into the Oklahoma Panhandle after dark. WPC flood risk over the Midwest should keep easing from west to east unless new training rebuilds on the Ohio Valley side. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300 UTC Slight is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 20, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (Watches 670, 671, 672 expired); SPC storm reports for 19–20 September 2026; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0819 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watch/warning text; National Hurricane Center public advisories for Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Odalys.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday, September 19 afternoon Storm Updates. Local flood polygons posted overnight live under the same Storm Tracker category.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Watch 670 + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026

This is a live Saturday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 19, 2026. The organized pulse is on the Central Plains cold front. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and central High Plains, covering about 56,800 square miles and nearly 2 million people in the Slight contour, with Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, St. Joseph, and Salina inside the risk area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670 is in effect from 3:20 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. CDT for central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and training rain, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this afternoon and tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, hail dents on the High Plains, trees on wires in the Southeast leftover cells, and interior water where WPC Moderate flood-risk storms stall over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Montana. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 670, issued 3:20 p.m. CDT Saturday, September 19, 2026, is the live convective watch. Primary threat language is scattered damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, plus isolated large hail to 1.5 inches. The watch box is drawn roughly along and 65 miles either side of a line from 115 miles west-southwest of Alva, Oklahoma, to 35 miles east-southeast of Manhattan, Kansas. SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2309, issued 2:34 p.m. CDT, had already flagged northwest Oklahoma into central and northeast Kansas for watch consideration; that discussion is now overtaken by the watch itself.

The 2000 UTC outlook summary is unchanged from mid-morning: thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. A Marginal Risk still wraps Indianapolis, Columbus, Denver, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Ohio Valley convection has struggled to stay organized along a surging outflow boundary from north of Columbus into southern Illinois and Indiana; SPC trimmed the northern edge of the Marginal there after temperatures behind the outflow fell into the upper 70s.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 1602 UTC Saturday, September 19, 2026, holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest — particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana — and a second Moderate Risk over portions of southern Montana. Guidance cited by WPC includes moderate-to-high probabilities of totals exceeding 5 inches in the better Midwest cores, with some low-end probabilities of 8 inches. Day 2 outlook language eases that to a Slight Risk over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle

This is the live watch. A cold front is dropping south from southwest Iowa through southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Ahead of it the airmass is seasonably moist and, by mid-afternoon, moderately unstable. SPC expects a few short-lived supercells early, then high-based storms and line segments capable of 60 to 75 mph gusts. MD 2309 noted temperatures near 100 F from Texas into southern Kansas, dewpoints near 60 F in the eastern Texas Panhandle and mid-60s toward Wichita, and most-probable peak gusts of 65–80 mph with hail of 1.00–1.75 inches.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, Manhattan, and St. Joseph on the Missouri side of the Slight contour; Alva and northwest Oklahoma; the eastern Texas Panhandle. A 67 mph gust was already measured 3 miles south-southwest of Freedom in Woodward County, Oklahoma, at 2040 UTC.

Restoration read: wind first, hail second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark across the watch. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. Treat any ZIP that also sits under training rain as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana flood Moderate

This is the water desk, not the watch. WPC’s 16Z update kept a Moderate Risk of 1-to-6-hour rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. A surface low over the middle Mississippi Valley and enhanced forcing ahead of it support intense cores and high instantaneous rates. Urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams fail first. Sunday’s Day 2 ERO drops this corridor to Slight, so tonight into Sunday morning is the higher-end window.

Restoration read: extraction and drying, not hail claims. If a cell trains over the same ZIP for more than an hour, treat it as an occupied-structure water job. Do not send the same crew to the Kansas watch and a Quad Cities flood call without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central High Plains and southern Montana

SPC holds the Slight Risk west into the central High Plains. Low-level easterly flow is holding upper-50s to low-60s dewpoints. A shortwave moving out of the Great Basin is expected to organize a loosely cellular band into a linear cluster, with hail early and wind later, and some indication the activity continues into western Kansas overnight. Preliminary LSRs already include 1.25-inch hail 5 miles north of Matheson in Elbert County, Colorado, at 2044 UTC, and measured gusts of 59 and 66 mph near Byers in Arapahoe County around 2003–2006 UTC.

Separately, WPC expanded the inherited Moderate excessive-rainfall risk over southern and southeast Montana, matching HREF/RRFS probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and low-end probabilities over 5 inches. That is a High Plains flood and debris-flow desk in burn scars and small drainages, not the Kansas watch.

Restoration read: Colorado and western Kansas are wind-and-hail tickets tonight. Southern Montana is water and mud. Do not conflate the two.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC September 19 through the afternoon) show no tornadoes as of this desk. Hail: quarter-size near Rome in Floyd County, Georgia, at 1935 UTC; 1.25-inch north of Matheson, Colorado. Wind: trees and power lines down at Signal Mountain and South Pittsburg, Tennessee; trees and blocked roads in Etowah and Jackson Counties, Alabama; multiple trees down near Warm Springs and Highland Park, Georgia; 59–66 mph near Byers, Colorado; 67 mph near Freedom, Oklahoma. Those tree and wire reports are already tickets.

A morning Storm Tracker for this calendar day is already on the site: Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning). This afternoon post is the watch-and-LSR update, not a reprint of Friday.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Central / NE Kansas, W / NC Oklahoma, E Texas Panhandle	Damaging wind 60–75 mph, isolated 1.5-inch hail	Slight + Watch 670 to 11 p.m. CDT	Live watch
Eastern Iowa / northern Illinois / northern Indiana	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Tonight into Sunday morning
Southern / southeast Montana	Flash flood, 3–5 inch cores	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today into tonight
Central High Plains / NE Colorado	Wind, marginally severe hail	Slight / Marginal	Live LSRs near Byers and Matheson
Ohio Valley (IN / OH / IL outflow)	Isolated damaging gusts	Marginal, trimmed on north edge	Poorly organized
Southern Appalachians / Southeast	Trees, 50–60 mph wet microbursts	Marginal / local SVR	Just-hit trees in TN, AL, GA
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	TD Six near the Azores; no U.S. land threat	No mainland tropical watch	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph inside Watch 670 is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work from Wichita through Topeka and across northwest Oklahoma. Hail to 1.5 inches is a vehicle and roof-dent ticket, not a regional catastrophe. Midwest Moderate flood risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock if occupied structures take water. Southern Montana is the same water problem on different terrain.

For teams in or near Watch 670: stage before 5 p.m. CDT, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Southeast tree jobs from this afternoon’s Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee cells are already on the board.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Six is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores with 35 mph winds and no coastal watches for the United States. The work tonight, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a flooded intersection where Iowa or Illinois cells train, isolated hail on the High Plains, leftover trees in the Tennessee Valley. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Sunday’s SPC Day 2 outlook remains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central High Plains and southern Plains. WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall eases the Midwest corridor to Slight. Day 3 convective risk is Marginal. Later in the week WPC language flags a wetter pattern for the Southern High Plains and Rockies, and a frontal system toward the East midweek. Watch the next Storm Tracker rather than assuming Watch 670 is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources dated Saturday, September 19, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670; Mesoscale Discussion 2309; SPC today’s local storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 1602 UTC; National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Depression Six (Azores, no U.S. land threat). Morning desk on this calendar day: September 19 morning Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, Watch 670 text, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Saturday, September 19, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down across the Carolinas and Upstate South Carolina, dumped 1.00–1.50-inch hail on the Utah Wasatch Front and Four Corners, and produced brief tornado or landspout reports near Fruit Heights and Uintah County, Utah. This morning the organized work is water: flash-flood warnings and just-hit rain of 3 to 7.5 inches in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, with a Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall still draped over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, plus a second Moderate pocket over southern Montana.

The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains, valid 1300Z Saturday through 1200Z Sunday. Summary language: scattered severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening, focused on Kansas. No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was #0669, now expired. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific. A subtropical Atlantic disturbance near the Azores is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is interior water where overnight cores trained, then late-day Kansas wind and hail if the Slight Risk verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No SPC severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is up at 12:23 UTC Saturday. Friday’s Carolina wind pulse and Utah/Four Corners convection are yesterday’s tickets now sitting as LSRs. What is still live is hydrologic: overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southern Fillmore County, Minnesota; Clayton and Fayette Counties, Iowa; and Dubuque, Jackson, Jo Daviess, and Stephenson Counties on the Iowa–Illinois line. La Crosse and Quad Cities language overnight cited 1–3 inches already down in the Iowa warnings and 3–7.5 inches in the Minnesota flood statements, with a mudslide reported on Highway 76 west of Caledonia and water over the road at Beaver Creek Valley State Park.

Flood Watches remain through Sunday morning across portions of southwest and south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. A separate Flood Watch covers south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, through Sunday afternoon, including burn-scar flash-flood language. Heat Advisories continue into this evening over parts of southeast Kansas and central through southwest Missouri, with heat-index values near 100–105°F — that is a crew-safety overlay on the same Plains corridor that later gets the Slight Risk.

Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)

This is today’s new severe desk. The 1300Z outlook, issued 7:25 a.m. CDT by Smith/Mead, places a Slight Risk over parts of the central Plains. The 15-percent hail contour covers about 34,700 square miles and 1.33 million people, with larger centers listed as Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, and Manhattan. The 15-percent wind contour is a bit larger and also takes in St. Joseph, Missouri. A categorical intensity-level-1 wind overlay (60–75 mph gusts) sits where HREF guidance, precipitable water, and steep low-level lapse rates overlap. A 5-percent wind area fans out as far as Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta — that is the isolated-gust envelope, not the Slight Risk core.

A cold front still runs west-southwest to east-northeast from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and will ease south. Seasonably moist air ahead of it over Kansas, Missouri, and northwestern Oklahoma should become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon. Storms are expected late afternoon into early evening as CIN erodes. Steep 0–3 km lapse rates (8.5–9.5°C/km) favor vigorous cores and evaporative cooling. A few short-lived supercells are possible in the Kansas vicinity given adequate speed and directional shear. Large hail rides with the stronger updrafts. The threat should diminish during the evening.

Farther west, models still build storms near and east of I-25 this afternoon, then grow a loosely organized band — including some supercells — into a linear cluster crossing eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Fifteen-percent wind probabilities were added over eastern Colorado for that mode. Low severe-wind probabilities continue into western Kansas late evening if the cluster holds together.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and the I-70 / I-35 corridor in Kansas; St. Joseph and the western Missouri fringe; eastern Colorado Front Range and High Plains east of I-25; Amarillo and Enid sit in the broader wind-probability field but are not the Slight Risk bullseye.

Restoration read: stage tarps and glass/roof kits for late afternoon, not after the first warning. Hail on the 15-percent contour is vehicle and shingle work. Wind at 60–75 mph is trees on service drops and isolated roof peel. Do not let the Heat Advisory talk you out of hydration and early staging — that air mass is the same one feeding the storms.

Hotspot 2 — Midwest Moderate excessive rainfall (already hitting)

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0844 UTC Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of the Midwest, particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. That is the same corridor that took overnight Flash Flood Warnings. Additional 1–2 inches were still possible in the Iowa–Illinois warnings as of 4:19–5:54 a.m. CDT. Flood Watches through Sunday morning over southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio keep the water story open after the current warnings expire.

Southeastern Minnesota is the just-hit core: 4–7.5 inches in Fillmore and Mower Counties with flooding on Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson, water over County 57 / Minnesota 56, trees washed onto Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and I-90 between mile markers 193 and 204 in the statement footprint. Houston County statements cited 5–7 inches and a mudslide west of Caledonia. Those are extraction and roadway-closure jobs already on the books.

River flooding leftover from earlier in the week still sits on the Saint Marys and Wabash in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, with moderate flooding forecast near Decatur and Fort Wayne. That is channel water, not this morning’s flash-flood cores.

Restoration read: Minnesota–northeast Iowa–northwest Illinois is today’s water ticket. Photograph interiors in remaining daylight only if it is safe. The Moderate Risk means another training band can reload the same ZIPs this afternoon. Do not send the Kansas hail crew and the Dubuque water crew as one story.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Montana Moderate flood + High Plains leftover wind

WPC upgraded parts of southern Montana to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. Discussion cited anomalously high moisture, a slow-moving mid-upper low, and deterministic QPF near 3.5 inches with high-end CAM scenarios of localized 7–8 inches if instability verifies. NWS Billings holds a Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for all of south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, with explicit burn-scar flash-flood language. A separate Flood Watch covers a slice of northeast Montana (Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, Wibaux).

Overnight High Plains wind already verified on the west side of this pattern: 66 mph near Burlington, Colorado; 67 mph southeast of Evansville, Wyoming; 63 mph northwest of Ruleton, Kansas; 69 mph north-northwest of McDonald, Kansas; 64 mph north of Hastings, Nebraska; trees and snapped poles in Cheyenne County, Kansas. Those are Friday night LSRs, not a live watch.

Restoration read: Montana is a flood-and-burn-scar desk, not a wind desk. High Plains wind damage from last night is already on the ground in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Today’s new wind threat there is the late-day cluster coming off the Front Range.

Just hit

Friday’s Carolinas–Georgia Marginal Risk verified as a wind pulse. Official LSRs include a 69 mph gust at Greensboro (GSO) and 66 mph at Fayetteville (KFAY), plus a long string of trees and wires down from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, Moore, Johnston, Wake, Cumberland, Harnett, Catawba, and Pender Counties in North Carolina into York, Spartanburg, Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson Counties in South Carolina. Shingles and siding damage was reported west-southwest of Statesville. A landspout lofted debris at Lighthouse Point, Broward County, Florida, mid-afternoon Friday. That is a local Florida ticket, not the national headline.

Utah and the Four Corners took the hail and brief-tornado reports: 1.50-inch hail at Kaysville and west of Farmington, Davis County; 1.00-inch hail at Farmington, New Mexico, and Dinosaur / Massadona, Moffat County, Colorado; a tornado report near Fruit Heights, Davis County, from video showing rotation and lofted debris; a landspout report 15 miles east-southeast of Naples, Uintah County. Those cells are down. The work is already there.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central / eastern Kansas	Severe wind 60–75 mph, large hail, short-lived supercells	SPC Slight (1300Z)	Outlook only — no watch yet
Eastern CO into western KS	Damaging gusts as storms go linear	15% wind / isolated severe	Late afternoon–evening
E Iowa / N Illinois / N Indiana	Flash flood, training rain	WPC Moderate ERO	Live overnight FFWs; risk continues
SE Minnesota (Fillmore, Houston, Mower)	Just-hit 4–7.5″ rain, roads, mudslide	FFW / flood warning overnight	Aftermath + residual water
SW MI / N IN / NW OH	Additional flooding possible	Flood Watch through Sunday morning	Watch live
Southern / SE Montana + Sheridan WY	Heavy rain, burn-scar flash flood	WPC Moderate + Flood Watch	Today into Sunday
Carolinas / Upstate SC	Trees, wires, 66–69 mph gusts	Friday Marginal — verified	Just hit / cleanup
Wasatch Front / Four Corners	1.00–1.50″ hail, brief tornado/landspout reports	Friday convection	Just hit
Ohio Valley / southern Appalachians / Southeast	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC 5% wind / local SVR possible	Afternoon scatter
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone threatening land	NHC: no TCs	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Water is the morning job. Minnesota and the Iowa–Illinois line already have interior and roadway flooding from overnight cores. A Moderate ERO means those same counties can take another round. Kansas is the afternoon job: hail and 60–75 mph wind if the Slight Risk fires on schedule. Montana is a separate flood-and-burn-scar desk with a multi-day watch. Carolina wind and Utah hail are Friday night tickets still waiting on adjusters.

For teams on the Kansas Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Heat-index values near 100–105°F on the Missouri–southeast Kansas Advisory are a crew-safety constraint, not a reason to ignore the outlook.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up as of mid-morning UTC Saturday. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail and wind swath through a Kansas county, another flooded intersection where Iowa or northern Illinois cells train, burn-scar runoff in southern Montana, leftover trees in the Carolinas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains a Slight Risk. WPC Day 2 eases the Midwest and Ohio Valley to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall as the axis slides east. Flood Watches in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Montana run through Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the overnight Minnesota warnings were the last water of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0725 AM CDT); SPC Current Watches page updated 12:23 UTC Saturday (no watches valid; last watch #0669); SPC Local Storm Reports for 18/1200Z–19/1159Z; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0844 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text from La Crosse, Quad Cities, Northern Indiana, Billings, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Saturday (no tropical cyclones; Azores disturbance is not a U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 18 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Tag: Storm Prediction Center

What is live this afternoon

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

What is live this morning

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians, plus Mid-Atlantic flood axes

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

What is live this afternoon

Hotspot 1 — Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic fringe (WPC Slight + SPC Marginal)

Hotspot 2 — Texas South Plains and northeast Texas

Hotspot 3 — Southeast scatter (Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi)

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

Overnight into this morning

What is live this morning

Hotspot 1 — Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the central Appalachians

Hotspot 2 — Southeast ahead of the front

Hotspot 3 — Texas South Plains, plus leftover High Plains hail

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

Prowers County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Kiowa County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Bent County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Stay safe — hail and wind

What this means for restoration teams

FEMA & federal assistance

Looking ahead

Sources & how to verify

Prowers County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Kiowa County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Bent County — Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Stay safe — hail and wind

What this means for restoration teams

FEMA & federal assistance

Looking ahead

Sources & how to verify

What is live this afternoon

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern Oklahoma

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas and southwest Nebraska

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers, plus a Florida polygon

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

What expired overnight vs what is live

Hotspot 1 — Oklahoma Slight Risk, afternoon and evening

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers

Just hit

Pulse table

What this means for restoration teams

What this is not

Looking ahead

Sources and how to verify

What is live this afternoon

Hotspot 1 — Central into northeast Kansas, western into north-central Oklahoma, eastern Texas Panhandle