Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal
What Changed
- Compared with the November 4 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-04-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 5, issued 0657 PM CST November 4, valid 050100Z–051200Z) continues a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. Isolated sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado remain possible this evening into overnight. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches currently valid (SPC confirms none as of 22:40 UTC November 4).
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0053 UTC November 5 / discussion 759 PM EST November 4 by Chenard, valid 01 UTC Nov 05–12 UTC Nov 05) holds a Marginal Risk for portions of Southeast Florida, the Southern Appalachians, and a small area of Southeast Colorado. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight areas have remained closed.
- National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for Fannin, Gilmer, northwestern Union, and Murray Counties in north-central Georgia until 3:00 AM EST Thursday November 5. Radar-indicated thunderstorms producing 1–2 inches per hour with additional 1–2 inches possible. Isolated flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, and roads ongoing or expected.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook notes a non-tropical low a few hundred miles south of Bermuda with medium (30% 48-hour / 50% 7-day) chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics while moving slowly eastward. No U.S. land threat.
- Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential remains in the Southeast Marginal; flood lane holds at Marginal with one active FFW in north Georgia.
Live Status
As of the morning desk on Thursday, November 5, 2026 (approximately 8:15 PM PST November 4 / 04:15 UTC November 5), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.” Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible across parts of the Southeast this evening. Environment ahead of the cold front remains moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) but with poor lapse rates limiting buoyancy. Marginal deep-layer shear supports occasional stronger updrafts and transient supercells, particularly from eastern Alabama into Georgia. Storms should weaken overnight as the environment stabilizes over eastern Georgia and the western Carolinas.
WPC maintains Marginal excessive rainfall risks in the noted areas. The active Flash Flood Warning in north Georgia is the primary short-term hydrologic concern. No widespread organized severe damage is indicated. Residual urban and small-stream flooding possible in the Marginal areas.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~04:15 UTC Nov 5 2026 / ~8:15 PM PST Nov 4) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30%/50% chance for western/central Atlantic non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics over 48h/7 days, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. |
| Severe | Marginal | SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 5): MARGINAL RISK portions of the Southeast. Isolated wind/brief tornado possible this evening. No watches valid. Threat diminishing overnight. |
| Flood | Marginal | WPC Day 1 ERO Marginal for SE Florida, southern Appalachians, SE Colorado. Active Flash Flood Warning north-central Georgia until 3 AM EST. Isolated runoff issues possible. No Moderate or higher. |
Rising Queries
Google Trends shows elevated interest in “tornado warning” (top US trending search in recent hours, 200,000+), “flash flood,” “severe weather,” “Georgia weather,” and residual “Florida flooding.” Interest tracks the ongoing Southeast Marginal and north Georgia FFW.
Restoration Read
Dominant residual ticket is isolated flash flooding in north Georgia under the active warning, on terrain that can respond quickly to 1–2 inch rates. Secondary is sporadic wind or brief tornado damage in the Southeast Marginal. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, and tree/wind damage. Turn around, don’t drown.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.
Informational only — not an official warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings.
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What we actually ran, what it measured, and what it means for a restoration shop — every week, including the flops.
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