Tag: Storm Updates

Real-time severe weather tracking, storm pulses, and meteorological incident reporting.

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 09

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-09-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight): Latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 10 / 0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026 by Mead, valid 100100Z–101200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. No material change. Pacific Northwest shortwave supports sporadic lightning with MUCAPE a few hundred J/kg; a few strong gusts possible but severe not expected. Deep South Texas to middle Texas Coast: elevated thunderstorms possible on marginal instability; most vigorous convection offshore SE of Brownsville. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero significant LSRs elevating the severe lane.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1602 UTC / ~11:02 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2026 by Miller, valid 16Z Nov 09–12Z Nov 10) maintains a Slight Risk across portions of far southeastern Texas. Additional rain on highly saturated soils (prior 4–10 inches near Kingsville/lower RGV; SPoRT soil moisture >95th percentile) supports isolated to scattered flash flood threat into early afternoon, waning later as pattern degrades. No Moderate or higher.
NWS products show residual Flood Warnings in South Texas, Florida (Peace River), and Arizona; Blizzard Warning in Alaska (Thompson Pass); routine frost/freeze/marine advisories. Prior Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watch for South Texas have expired. None elevate national lanes above Quiet Pulse thresholds.
Tropical remains None. NHC: no tropical cyclones in Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. TS Pena (Central Pacific) no mainland threat.
Quiet Pulse criteria continue to hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Nothing material moved from the morning pulse table.

Live Status

As of the afternoon desk on Monday, November 9, 2026 (approximately 9:18 PM PST / 05:18 UTC November 10), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC) states no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight.

Residual heavy rain and flash flood potential is confined to far southeastern Texas under a WPC Slight Risk on already saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. The threat is expected to wane by late evening. Pacific Northwest sees possible sporadic lightning with the shortwave passage but low severe potential. No tropical threats.

Hotspots

Far southeastern Texas / Coastal Bend: WPC Slight Risk residual excessive rainfall on saturated soils (prior 4–10 inches near Kingsville and lower RGV). Active Flood Watch and Flash Flood Warnings have expired. Isolated to scattered flash flood threat continues into early afternoon before waning. Monitor low-water crossings and urban drainage.

South-central Texas residual: Elevated showers diminishing under the upper low. Additional light-to-moderate rain on wet ground. No severe probabilities.

Pacific Northwest coastal: Fast-moving shortwave may produce occasional lightning with shallow convection. Limited instability keeps severe risk low. No SPC categorical risk.

Just Hit

Prior rounds of heavy rain across South Texas produced 4–10 inches in spots, saturating soils and prompting Flood Watches and Flash Flood Warnings that have since expired. SPC storm reports show zero tornado, hail, or wind reports elevating the severe lane. No organized severe outbreak.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:18 PM PST Nov 9 / 05:18 UTC Nov 10 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. TS Pena (CPAC) no U.S. mainland or Gulf threat. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	None	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 10): No severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Elevated storms in south TX diminishing; possible lightning PNW with low severe potential. No watches or MDs valid. Zero significant LSRs.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk far southeastern Texas. Residual convection on saturated soils from prior 4–10+ inches. Isolated-scattered flash flood threat into early afternoon; waning later. Residual Flood Warnings in FL/AZ. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse with residual flood lane. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in far southeastern Texas under the Slight Risk on already saturated soils. Additional rainfall prolongs localized water issues before the threat wanes. No organized severe damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

Looking Ahead One Day

The residual Texas flood threat is expected to wane by late evening as the pattern degrades. Pacific Northwest shortwave passage with possible lightning but low severe potential. No significant severe or tropical threats indicated for Tuesday on current products.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
NWS Watches/Warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all
NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 09 Morning

Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always check weather.gov and local forecasts for the latest information. Not a substitute for official warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 09 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-09-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight): Latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 10 / 0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026 by Mead, valid 100100Z–101200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. Pacific Northwest shortwave supports sporadic lightning with MUCAPE a few hundred J/kg; a few strong gusts possible but severe not expected. Deep South Texas to middle Texas Coast: elevated thunderstorms possible on marginal instability; most vigorous convection offshore SE of Brownsville. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero significant LSRs elevating the severe lane.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1602 UTC / ~11:02 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2026 by Miller, valid 16Z Nov 09–12Z Nov 10) maintains a Slight Risk across portions of far southeastern Texas. Additional rain on highly saturated soils (prior 4–10 inches near Kingsville/lower RGV; SPoRT soil moisture >95th percentile) supports isolated to scattered flash flood threat into early afternoon, waning later as pattern degrades. No Moderate or higher.
NWS products: Residual Flood Warnings and Advisories in South Texas on saturated ground (including areas near Corpus Christi and lower Rio Grande Valley). Ongoing Flood Warnings in Florida (St. Johns/Peace River systems) and Arizona. Blizzard Warning continues for Thompson Pass, AK (heavy snow, gusts to 45 mph, visibility to 1/4 mile). Routine winter, freeze, frost, and marine products (Arctic gales, freezing spray) elsewhere. None elevate national lanes above Quiet Pulse thresholds.
Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. Formation not expected during the next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. Tropical Storm Pena remains in the Central Pacific (well south of Hawaii) with no threat to the mainland U.S. or Gulf.
Quiet Pulse criteria continue to hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Nothing material moved from the afternoon pulse table.

Live Status

As of the morning desk update on Monday, November 9, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PST / 05:16 UTC November 10), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 10) states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.” Residual heavy rain and flash flood potential is confined to far southeastern Texas under a WPC Slight Risk on already saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. National Weather Service products include residual flood products in South Texas, Florida, and Arizona, a Blizzard Warning in Alaska, and routine winter/freeze/marine advisories. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above Quiet Pulse thresholds. The active restoration ticket is residual water on saturated ground in South Texas, not organized severe weather or tropical impact. SPC storm reports show no tornado, hail, or wind reports elevating the severe lane for the day.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:16 PM PST Nov 9 / 05:16 UTC Nov 10 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. TS Pena (CPAC) no U.S. mainland or Gulf threat. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	None	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 10): No severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Sporadic lightning possible PNW; elevated storms possible south TX. No watches valid. No significant LSRs.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk far southeastern Texas. Residual convection on saturated soils from prior heavy rain. Isolated-scattered flash flood threat into early afternoon; waning later. Residual Flood Warnings in TX/FL/AZ. No Moderate or higher.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. WPC holds only a Slight Risk residual flood threat in far southeastern Texas. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are active on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 08 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the prior version of this morning desk (published ~11:17 PM PST November 7: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 9 / 6:50 PM CST Sunday November 8 2026 by Mead, valid 090100Z–091200Z) holds NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Marginal Risk areas over northwest Washington and earlier South Texas have closed. Isolated strong storms with gusty winds remain possible overnight in South Texas, but severe potential is negligible. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC November 9 / discussion 7:57 PM EST November 8 by Bann, valid 01Z Nov 09–12Z Nov 09) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across South-Central and South Texas. Heaviest rates largely shifted offshore in far South Texas, but Slight held along and near the coast and over the Edwards Plateau given prior accumulations (up to 3.5+ inches in places) and residual flooding potential. No Moderate or higher.
NWS has an active Flash Flood Warning (extended) for Edwards, northwestern Kinney, and northeastern Val Verde counties in south-central Texas until midnight CST Sunday, with reported flooded/closed roads (including near US 377, SH 55, CR 450), a water rescue, and 2–5 inches already fallen. Additional rainfall up to 1 inch possible. High Wind Warnings for the Northern Washington Coast and Grays Harbor County Coast have expired.
Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (700 PM EST November 8) confirms tropical cyclone formation not expected during the next 7 days. No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. Tropical Storm Pena remains in the Central Pacific with no threat to the mainland U.S. or Gulf.
Quiet Pulse criteria continue to hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Live Status

As of the morning desk update on Sunday, November 8, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 9:17 PM PST / 05:17 UTC November 9), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states there are no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. An upper low over southwest Chihuahua will progress toward the Texas Big Bend overnight. Modest height falls, low/midlevel warm advection, and MUCAPE of 500–1000 J/kg will yield an increase in thunderstorm coverage across South Texas overnight. While no severe weather is expected, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is possible. Elsewhere, showers over southwest Ontario may support sporadic lightning over far western New York and the Tug Hill region, but convection remains too shallow for organized severe. No watches or mesoscale discussions currently valid. Homepage confirms Day 1 No Severe; Day 2 and Day 3 No Severe.

WPC Day 1 ERO confirms a Slight Risk across South-Central and South Texas. Present indications show highest rates remaining offshore through the remainder of the night, with Slight maintained along and near the coast given the chance for westward/inland propagation. Farther north, diffluent southerly flow continues to support areas of rainfall in and near the Edwards Plateau. Rainfall rates have tapered, but the Slight risk area was largely maintained given overlap with places that received as much as 3.5 inches in the past 24 hours and where flooding had already been reported. No Moderate risk. Active Flash Flood Warning covers portions of Edwards, Kinney, and Val Verde counties with ongoing impacts. NWS national products include residual flood watches or advisories in Texas and routine freeze, high wind, and other products elsewhere. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above the current Quiet Pulse thresholds.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:17 PM PST Nov 8 / 05:17 UTC Nov 9 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. TS Pena (CPAC) no U.S. mainland or Gulf threat. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	None	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 9): No severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Prior Marginal risks (NW WA, South TX) closed. Isolated gusty winds possible in South TX overnight, but not severe. No watches or MDs valid.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk across South-Central and South Texas (coast near Brownsville to Corpus, Edwards Plateau). Prior rains up to 3.5+ inches; residual flooding potential. Active FFW in Edwards/Kinney/Val Verde. Highest rates offshore. No Moderate or higher.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Dominant residual ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors and higher terrain across South-Central and South Texas under the WPC Slight Risk. Prior accumulations of 2–5+ inches in places from the Rio Grande Valley toward Corpus Christi and the Edwards Plateau support continued low-end flash flood potential overnight into early Monday, especially where soils are primed. Active Flash Flood Warning confirms reported road closures and at least one water rescue. Secondary residual is any lingering wind damage or power issues from earlier High Wind Warnings on the Pacific Northwest coasts, now expired. No organized widespread catastrophic damage expected. Monitor for debris, water intrusion, and high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 7, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 6 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with the November 5 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet) and this morning’s earlier version: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 6 / 0700 PM CST Thursday November 5 2026 by Lyons, valid 060100Z–061200Z) continues “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Severe storms remain unlikely tonight. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC November 6 / discussion 725 PM EST November 5 by Bann, valid 01 UTC Nov 06–12 UTC Nov 06) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. Prior Marginal areas closed. No Moderate or higher.
National Weather Service Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from late tonight through Saturday morning for potential 2–4 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts. Residual river Flood Warnings continue elsewhere (e.g., Missouri). High Wind and Freezing Spray Warnings in Alaska. No active flash flood warnings elevating the national Day 1 lane. Prior Georgia FFW remains expired.
Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America as of 100 AM EST Friday November 6. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. A non-tropical low south of Bermuda continues with low-to-medium chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics while moving east; no U.S. land threat.
Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC Day 1 or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Day 2 Outlook (1730 UTC November 5) holds Marginal Risk for eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia Friday, outside this Day 1 window. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible overnight from Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and Carolinas with the front, but no severe probabilities.

Live Status

As of the morning desk on Friday, November 6, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 9:15 PM PST November 5 / 05:15 UTC November 6), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.” Isolated thunderstorms are possible later tonight from the Mid-Atlantic region northward into southern New England and southward into the Carolinas ahead of a weak front, with strong winds aloft but limited near-surface buoyancy. No severe risk areas drawn. No watches currently valid. Homepage confirms Day 1 No Severe; Day 2 Marginal for eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

WPC Day 1 ERO confirms no excessive rainfall areas of note. Probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is under 5 percent nationally. Residual showers and thunderstorms may occur along the eastern front, but no organized flood threat on Day 1. NWS national products include the Flood Watch for MA/RI and routine marine and winter advisories elsewhere. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above Quiet.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:15 PM PST Nov 5 / 05:15 UTC Nov 6 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: no active systems. Non-tropical low south of Bermuda low/medium chance subtropical characteristics, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	None	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 6): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms unlikely tonight. No watches valid. Isolated non-severe storms possible Mid-Atlantic to Carolinas. Day 2 Marginal eastern Carolinas/SE VA.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 ERO: probability of exceeding flash flood guidance <5%. Prior Marginals closed. Flood Watch MA/RI for Friday into Saturday. Residual local Flood Warnings do not elevate national Day 1 lane.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run. No invented queries.

Restoration Read

No open restoration ticket. No organized severe wind, tornado, or widespread flooding indicated on current Day 1 products. Prior Southeast Marginal and north Georgia flash flood warning remain closed. Residual isolated thunderstorms may produce brief gusty winds or localized heavy rain overnight along the eastern front, but nothing at the level that drives a damage claim under Quiet Pulse criteria. Flood Watch for southeastern New England signals a Day 2 concern. Monitor routine weather.gov updates for any local evolution.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. Nothing at SPC Slight or above. No WPC ERO Moderate or above. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 5

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 6 / 0700 PM CST Thursday November 5 2026 by Lyons, valid 060100Z–061200Z) continues “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Severe storms remain unlikely tonight. Prior Southeast Marginal remains closed. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC November 6 / discussion 725 PM EST November 5 by Bann, valid 01 UTC Nov 06–12 UTC Nov 06) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. Prior Marginal areas closed. No Moderate or higher.
National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning for Fannin, Gilmer, northwestern Union, and Murray Counties in north-central Georgia remains expired. No active flash flood warnings of note on the CONUS severe or flood lanes. A Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Residual Flood Warnings persist on some western rivers.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. NHC confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A broad non-tropical low a few hundred miles south of Bermuda holds a low (30%) chance through 48 hours and medium (40%) through 7 days of acquiring subtropical characteristics while moving slowly eastward; no U.S. land threat.
Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Isolated stronger wind gusts possible overnight in DelMarVa into southern NY/NJ with fast-moving storms, but no severe probabilities.

Live Status

As of the afternoon desk on Thursday, November 5, 2026 (approximately 9:17 PM PST / 05:17 UTC November 6), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.” Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and the Carolinas ahead of a weak front. Strong winds aloft will produce fast-moving storms, but near-surface buoyancy remains limited; the surface-based threat and risk of damaging winds is low. Occasional stronger gust possible overnight across DelMarVa into southern NY/NJ. No organized severe threat. No mesoscale discussions in effect.

WPC Day 1 holds no excessive rainfall risk areas. The overnight Flash Flood Warning in north Georgia has expired. Residual runoff or minor urban ponding is possible where earlier heavy rain fell, but no widespread flash flood threat remains on Day 1. No tropical component.

Hotspots

Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and Carolinas: Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening into overnight along and ahead of the front. Fast-moving cells under strong winds aloft, limited surface-based threat after dark. Occasional gusty winds possible; no severe area. Flood Watch active for portions of MA/RI. Day 2 WPC carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of southeastern New England.

Southern Kansas / northern Oklahoma residual: Scattered elevated thunderstorms earlier under a mid-level shortwave. Elevated nature limited surface severe potential. No risk area remains.

North-central Georgia residual: Prior Flash Flood Warning expired. Ocoee River and surrounding terrain saw heavy overnight rain; monitor for lingering high water on roads and small streams. No active warning.

Just Hit

Overnight into early Thursday: Flash Flood Warning and localized flooding in north-central Georgia (Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Murray Counties) from thunderstorms producing 1–2 inches per hour. Some reports of high water and impacts along the Georgia-Tennessee line. Activity has ended; warning expired. Local wind reports (trees, wires) in the Mid-Atlantic with the frontal passage.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:17 PM PST / 05:17 UTC Nov 6 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: low (30% 48h) to medium (40% 7d) chance for western/central Atlantic non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	None	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 6): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Southeast Marginal closed. Isolated storms possible Mid-Atlantic/New England. No watches or MDs valid. Occasional stronger gust possible overnight DelMarVa/NY/NJ only.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 ERO: probability of exceeding FFG less than 5 percent. Prior Marginal areas closed. Georgia FFW expired. Flood Watch MA/RI. No active CONUS flash flood warnings of note. Residual minor runoff possible. Day 2 Slight Risk SE New England.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run. No invented queries.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse. Primary residual ticket is minor water intrusion or high water on roads from the expired north Georgia Flash Flood Warning and earlier Southeast rainfall, plus isolated tree/wire work from frontal winds in the Mid-Atlantic. No organized severe damage expected. No tropical component. Monitor local NWS for any lingering advisories and the Day 2 Slight flood risk in southeastern New England. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead

Day 2 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Slight Risk across parts of southeastern New England (Rhode Island into southeastern Massachusetts). Rain continues from the Northeast to the Southeast into Friday. No severe areas expected on Day 1. Monitor for potential flood concerns in New England overnight into Friday.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100 UTC November 6), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion ~725 PM EST November 5), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-morning.

Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. This desk does not issue warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 4 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with the November 4 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-11-04-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal): Latest SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 5, issued 0657 PM CST Wednesday November 4, valid 050100Z–051200Z) continues a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. Isolated sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado remain possible this evening. No upgrade to Slight or higher. Prior Lower-to-Mid Mississippi Valley Marginal has shifted east and contracted further.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0053 UTC November 5 / discussion 759 PM EST November 4 by Chenard, valid 01 UTC Nov 05–12 UTC Nov 05) holds a Marginal Risk for portions of Southeast Florida, the Southern Appalachians, and a small area of Southeast Colorado. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight areas remain closed.
National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for Fannin, Gilmer, northwestern Union, and Murray Counties in north-central Georgia until 3:00 AM EST Thursday November 5. Radar-indicated thunderstorms producing 1–2 inches per hour with additional 1–2 inches possible. Isolated flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, and roads ongoing or expected.
No convective watches are currently valid. SPC confirms none as of late evening UTC November 4 / early November 5. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook notes a non-tropical low a few hundred miles south of Bermuda with 30% chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics in 48 hours and 50% in 7 days, moving slowly eastward; no U.S. threat.
Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential remains in the Southeast Marginal; flood lane holds at Marginal with one active FFW in north Georgia.

As of the morning desk on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PST / 05:16 UTC November 5), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 5) states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.” Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible.

What Is Live

SPC Day 1 (0100Z November 5 / 6:57 PM CST by Lyons) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across portions of the Southeast. Evening radar and satellite show a band of predominately disorganized convection along and ahead of the cold front from eastern TN to south-central AL, with a more isolated cluster over eastern GA. Modest instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) and marginal deep-layer shear (30–35 kt) support occasional stronger updrafts, clusters, and transient supercells. Low-end risk for a brief tornado or damaging gust this evening. Storms should weaken as the environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the western Carolinas overnight. No watches or active mesoscale discussions elevating the threat beyond Marginal.

WPC Day 1 ERO maintains Marginal Risk for Southeast Florida (low-end, isolated heavy rates on saturated soils but reduced coverage expected), Southern Appalachians (training showers with embedded thunderstorms possible, terrain influence), and a small added Marginal in Southeast Colorado (slow-moving convection under upper low, localized 1–3 inches on wet antecedent conditions). Active Flash Flood Warning in north Georgia as noted. Residual concerns possible elsewhere but no higher risks.

No convective watches valid. NHC confirms no named tropical cyclones or U.S. coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.

Hotspots

Southeast (AL/GA/SC, east TN): Marginal severe risk for isolated wind gusts and a brief tornado this evening along the cold front and in shear-favorable zones. Overlaps with Marginal ERO in southern Appalachians and the active Flash Flood Warning in north-central Georgia for heavy rain rates.

Southeast Florida: Marginal ERO continues for any remaining isolated cells with heavy rates on multi-day saturated soils. Coverage expected lower than prior days; risk is highly localized.

Southeast Colorado: Small Marginal ERO for localized heavy rain from slow-moving convection this evening into overnight. Not widespread; minor flood impacts possible on wet ground.

Just-Hit

Flash Flood Warning active in north-central Georgia (Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Murray Counties) issued 8:55 PM EST November 4 for ongoing or imminent flash flooding from thunderstorms. Preliminary details limited; monitor local NWS for updates. No widespread severe reports elevated beyond the Marginal outlook as of desk time. Prior Mississippi Valley activity has shifted east.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:16 PM PST / 05:16 UTC Nov 5 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30%/50% chance for western/central Atlantic non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics over 48h/7 days, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 5): MARGINAL RISK portions of the Southeast. Isolated/sporadic wind/brief tornado possible. No watches valid. No reports received. Prior MS Valley Marginal shifted east and contracted.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Florida, S Appalachians, SE Colorado. Active FFW north-central GA until 3 AM EST Thursday. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight closed.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse with isolated severe potential and residual/localized flood concerns. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in north-central Georgia under the active Flash Flood Warning, plus any isolated wind or brief tornado damage in the Southeast Marginal Risk area. Southeast Florida residual urban flooding possible but downward-trending. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, and tree/wind damage. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead One Day

Severe threat expected to diminish further as the front progresses eastward overnight into the Carolinas. Flood concerns remain localized and Marginal. Drier air building behind the system. No significant tropical development threatening U.S. land in the near term.

Rising Queries

tornado warning, flash flood warning Georgia, southeast storms, Florida rain, severe weather Southeast.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 5), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 759 PM EST November 4), National Weather Service (Flash Flood Warning north Georgia and watches/warnings summary), National Hurricane Center (Tropical Weather Outlook). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-04-afternoon.

Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 5, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 05 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with the prior version of this morning desk and the afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-05-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 6 / 0700 PM CST Thursday November 5 2026 by Lyons, valid 060100Z–061200Z) continues “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Severe storms remain unlikely tonight. No upgrade. Prior Southeast Marginal remains closed. No convective watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC Friday November 6 / discussion 725 PM EST November 5 by Bann, valid 01 UTC Nov 06–12 UTC Nov 06) shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. Prior Marginal areas closed. No Moderate or higher.
Overnight catastrophic flash flooding in McCaysville, Georgia (Fannin County) and Copperhill, Tennessee (Polk County) produced a Flash Flood Emergency, record crest of approximately 18.05 feet on the Toccoa/Ocoee River (exceeding the 1990 record), dozens of rescues, city closures, and a state of emergency. Warnings have expired or been cancelled as waters recede. Residual local impacts do not elevate the national Day 1 ERO or severe lanes.
Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. A non-tropical low south of Bermuda holds low-to-medium chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics while moving east; no U.S. land threat.
Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible overnight from Mid-Atlantic into southern New England and Carolinas with the front, but no severe probabilities drawn.

Live Status

As of the morning desk on Thursday, November 5, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 7:14 PM PST / 03:14 UTC November 6), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.” Isolated thunderstorms are possible later tonight from the Mid-Atlantic region northward into southern New England and southward into the Carolinas ahead of a weak front, with strong winds aloft but limited near-surface buoyancy. No severe risk areas drawn. No watches currently valid. Day 2 outlook carries a Marginal Risk for eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia on Friday.

WPC Day 1 ERO confirms no excessive rainfall areas of note. Probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is under 5 percent nationally. Residual showers and thunderstorms may occur along the eastern front, but no organized flood threat on Day 1. The overnight Flash Flood Emergency for McCaysville/Copperhill has expired. Waters are receding after the record crest. NWS national products include scattered residual river Flood Warnings in the West, High Wind Warnings in Alaska, and routine advisories elsewhere. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above Quiet.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~7:14 PM PST / 03:14 UTC Nov 6 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: no active systems. Non-tropical low south of Bermuda low/medium chance subtropical characteristics, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	None	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 6): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe storms unlikely tonight. No watches valid. Isolated non-severe storms possible Mid-Atlantic to Carolinas.
Flood	Quiet	WPC Day 1 ERO: probability of exceeding flash flood guidance <5%. Prior Marginals closed. Overnight Flash Flood Emergency McCaysville GA/Copperhill TN expired after record crest and rescues; residual local impacts only.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run. No invented queries.

Restoration Read

No open national restoration ticket under Quiet Pulse criteria. The overnight catastrophic flash flooding in north-central Georgia and southeastern Tennessee (McCaysville/Copperhill) produced significant local impacts—rescues, structural flooding, debris, and a state of emergency—but warnings have expired and waters are receding. Residual cleanup and minor river flooding elsewhere do not drive a new organized claim. No severe wind or tornado probabilities. Monitor weather.gov for local residual updates. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

Informational only — not an official warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 4, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 4

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

Compared with the November 3 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-11-03-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): Latest SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 5, issued 0657 PM CST Wednesday November 4, valid 050100Z–051200Z) continues a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. Isolated sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado remain possible this evening. No upgrade to Slight or higher. Prior Lower-to-Mid Mississippi Valley Marginal has shifted east and contracted.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0053 UTC November 5 / discussion 759 PM EST November 4 by Chenard, valid 01 UTC Nov 05–12 UTC Nov 05) holds a Marginal Risk for portions of Southeast Florida, the Southern Appalachians, and a small area of Southeast Colorado. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight areas have remained closed.
National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for Fannin, Gilmer, northwestern Union, and Murray Counties in north-central Georgia until 3:00 AM EST Thursday November 5. Radar-indicated thunderstorms producing 1–2 inches per hour with additional 1–2 inches possible. Isolated flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, and roads ongoing or expected.
No convective watches currently valid (SPC confirms none as of late evening). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. NHC Tropical Weather Outlook notes a non-tropical low a few hundred miles south of Bermuda with 30% chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics in 48 hours and 50% in 7 days, moving slowly eastward; no U.S. threat.
Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential remains in the Southeast Marginal; flood lane holds at Marginal with one active FFW in north Georgia. No new storm reports received.

As of the afternoon desk on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (approximately 9:18 PM PST / 05:18 UTC November 5), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.” Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible across parts of the Southeast this evening.

What Is Live

SPC Day 1 (0100Z November 5 / 6:57 PM CST by Lyons) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across portions of the Southeast. Evening radar and satellite show a band of predominately disorganized convection along and ahead of the cold front from eastern TN to south-central AL, with a more isolated cluster over eastern GA. Modest instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) and marginal deep-layer shear (30–35 kt) support occasional stronger updrafts, clusters, and transient supercells. Low-end risk for a brief tornado or damaging gust this evening before the environment stabilizes overnight over eastern GA and the western Carolinas. No watches or active mesoscale discussions elevating the threat beyond Marginal.

WPC Day 1 ERO maintains Marginal Risk for Southeast Florida (low-end, isolated heavy rates on multi-day saturated soils with reduced coverage expected), Southern Appalachians (training showers with embedded thunderstorms possible, terrain influence), and a small Marginal in Southeast Colorado (slow-moving convection under upper low, localized 1–3 inches on wet antecedent conditions). Active Flash Flood Warning in north Georgia as noted. No higher risks.

No convective watches valid. NHC confirms no named tropical cyclones or U.S. coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.

Hotspots

Southeast (AL/GA/SC, east TN): Marginal severe risk for sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado this evening along the cold front and in shear-favorable zones. Overlaps with Marginal ERO in southern Appalachians and the active Flash Flood Warning in north-central Georgia for heavy rain rates.

Southeast Florida: Marginal ERO continues for any remaining isolated cells with heavy rates on multi-day saturated soils. Coverage expected lower than prior days; risk is highly localized.

Southeast Colorado: Small Marginal ERO for localized heavy rain from slow-moving convection this evening into overnight. Not widespread; minor flood impacts possible on wet ground.

Just-Hit

Flash Flood Warning active in north-central Georgia (Fannin, Gilmer, Union, Murray Counties) issued 8:55 PM EST November 4 for ongoing or imminent flash flooding from thunderstorms. SPC reports page shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received for the November 4 day as of desk time. Prior Mississippi Valley activity has shifted east. A short-lived Tornado Warning was issued earlier in central Alabama but expired without elevated reports.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:18 PM PST / 05:18 UTC Nov 5 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30%/50% chance for western/central Atlantic non-tropical low to acquire subtropical characteristics over 48h/7 days, moving east; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 5): MARGINAL RISK portions of the Southeast. Isolated/sporadic wind/brief tornado possible. No watches valid. No reports received. Prior MS Valley Marginal shifted east and contracted.
Flood	Marginal	WPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Florida, S Appalachians, SE Colorado. Active FFW north-central GA until 3 AM EST Thursday. No Moderate or higher. Prior Slight closed.

Restoration Read

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead One Day

Rising Queries

tornado warning, flash flood warning Georgia, southeast storms, Florida rain, severe weather Southeast.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 5), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussions), National Weather Service (Flash Flood Warning north Georgia and watches/warnings summary), National Hurricane Center (Tropical Weather Outlook). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-03-afternoon. No morning desk published for November 4.

Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 4, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 3

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-03-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 (2000 UTC November 3, issued 0200 PM CST) holds the Marginal Risk from the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys into the Mid Mississippi Valley (~213,741 sq mi). No upgrade or contraction of note.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0058 UTC Wednesday November 4 / discussion 808 PM EST November 3 by Chenard) maintains the Slight Risk across portions of Mississippi and Tennessee and over parts of Southeast Florida. Considered a drop to Marginal based on progressive line and lower rates but kept Slight for potential low-level jet uptick and training overnight.
No convective watches currently valid. Prior Plains Tornado Watches expired. Preliminary LSRs remain limited to three tree-down wind reports (Magnolia AR, Doyline LA). Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in northern Broward County FL (until 1100 PM EST) and Coconino County AZ (Havasu Creek basin, extended until 900 PM MST).
Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. Western Atlantic disturbance holds low formation chances; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.

As of the afternoon desk on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC November 4), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC November 3) states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.” Isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain possible this afternoon and tonight from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

What Is Live

SPC Day 1 (2000Z November 3 / 2:00 PM CST) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) covering ~213,741 square miles and ~17.5 million people, including Memphis, Nashville, St. Louis, Des Moines, and Little Rock. Strongest activity focused in advance of a speed max across northwest Louisiana with a few supercell structures and bowing segments expected to spread eastward into the Ark-La-Miss this evening. Low-level shear has peaked; threat is isolated wind damage and a tornado or two into tonight toward northwest Alabama. Farther north into the Mid Mississippi Valley, buoyancy is limited; any isolated low-topped supercells or line segments carry a lower-end wind threat.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 01 UTC November 4 – 12 UTC November 4) holds a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) from portions of central Mississippi into central Tennessee where eastward-moving convection may pose an isolated to scattered flash flood risk through the overnight hours. A small Slight Risk also covers parts of Southeast Florida for conditional flash flooding along the urban corridor. Residual Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings remain active in parts of Florida and Arizona. No Moderate or higher ERO.

No convective watches are currently valid. Mesoscale discussions from earlier in the day have expired. Preliminary local storm reports for today include tree-down reports 2 S Magnolia (Columbia County, AR) and 1 N Doyline (Webster County, LA). No tornado or hail reports received.

Hotspots

Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys (AR/LA/MS/TN/KY): Marginal severe (isolated wind/brief tornado) overlapping Slight excessive rainfall. Training risk noted over Mississippi into Tennessee overnight with increasing low-level jet. Primary residual concern is localized flash flooding and tree/wind damage on progressive line segments.

Southeast Florida: Small Slight Risk ERO for additional heavy downpours on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. Active Flash Flood Warning for northern Broward County until 1100 PM EST; residual Flood Warnings continue. Localized urban/street flooding remains possible.

Mid Mississippi Valley (MO/IA) and residual Arizona: Northern edge of the Marginal Risk with limited buoyancy supporting only isolated low-topped activity. Separate residual Flash Flood Warning continues for the Havasu Creek basin in Coconino County, Arizona.

Just-Hit

Preliminary LSRs (as of the SPC today page, 1200 UTC November 3 – 1159 UTC November 4): wind reports of trees down on AR-19 south of Magnolia (Columbia County, AR) at 1815/1850 UTC and on LA-164 near Doyline (Webster County, LA) at 1908 UTC. No tornado or hail reports received. Prior Plains activity has cleared eastward.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC Nov 4 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: low chance for western Atlantic disturbance; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (2000Z Nov 3): MARGINAL RISK Lower MS/TN into Mid MS Valley (~214k sq mi). Prior Plains Slight closed. No watches valid. Isolated wind/brief tornado possible.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk MS/TN and SE Florida. Active FFWs Broward FL and Coconino AZ. Residual Flood Warnings. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse with an elevated residual flood lane and isolated severe potential. Primary short-term ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast Florida under the Slight ERO, on already saturated soils from multi-day rainfall, plus minor tree/wind damage from isolated gusts in the Marginal Risk area. Monitor active Flash Flood Warnings in Broward County FL and residual water in Arizona. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, and residual coastal flooding. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead One Day

Day 2 ERO shows Marginal Risk remaining over Southeast Florida and from the Tennessee Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians. Severe threat is expected to diminish further as the system progresses east. Drier conditions building behind the front across much of the Plains and Mid-South.

Rising Queries

tornado warning, flash flood warning, florida flooding, mississippi valley storms, southeast florida rain.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z November 3, today’s LSRs), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 808 PM EST November 3), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood/Flash Flood Warnings including Broward FL and Coconino AZ), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet, no tropical cyclones). This morning’s desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-03-morning.

Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 3, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 03 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the November 2 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 has dropped from Slight Risk across the southern and central Plains to a Marginal Risk from the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Overnight tornado watches over KS/OK/TX expired. No current convective watches as of late evening UTC November 3 / early November 4.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (latest discussion 808 PM EST Tue Nov 3 / ~0058 UTC Wed Nov 4) maintains a Slight Risk from portions of central Mississippi into central Tennessee and over parts of Southeast Florida. Residual flood warnings continue in Florida and Arizona.
Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. A western Atlantic disturbance has low (10% in 48 hours, 30% in 7 days) chance of subtropical development; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. No named storm.
Active Flash Flood Warning remains for northern Broward County, Florida (issued 857 PM EST Nov 3), and Flash Flood Warning extended for Havasu Creek basin, Arizona. No Slight or higher SPC risk, no Moderate or higher WPC ERO. Quiet Pulse criteria hold.
Nothing moved into Slight or higher on SPC or Moderate or higher on WPC ERO. Isolated severe potential remains marginal this evening and tonight.

Live Status

As of the morning desk on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (evening confirmation ~9:14 PM PST / 05:14 UTC November 4), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 4 cycle, issued 0637 PM CST Tue Nov 3) states: “THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.” Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible this evening and tonight across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Prior Plains Slight Risk has closed.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Mississippi and Tennessee and over parts of Southeast Florida. Convection is generally progressive, but low-level jet and moisture transport may support some training overnight over central MS into central TN, keeping a lower-end Slight risk. Southeast Florida has a conditional flash flood risk along the urban corridor. No Moderate or higher risk.

National Weather Service watches and warnings include an active Flash Flood Warning for northern Broward County in southeastern Florida until 1100 PM EST (radar-indicated heavy rain, 2-3 inches already fallen, additional 1-2 inches possible), and an extended Flash Flood Warning for the Havasu Creek basin in Coconino County, Arizona (river gauge rise). Additional Flood Warnings persist across Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Utah. No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are currently in effect. No tropical cyclone products threaten the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PST / 05:14 UTC Nov 4 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: low chance (10% 48h / 30% 7d) of subtropical development for western Atlantic disturbance south of Bermuda; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 4): MARGINAL RISK Lower to Mid MS Valley. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential this evening/tonight. No active watches. Prior Plains Slight closed.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk portions of MS/TN and SE Florida. Active FFW northern Broward FL and Havasu Creek AZ. Residual river flooding continues. No Moderate or higher.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run. Related interest centers on Florida flooding, Election Day weather, Mississippi Valley storms, and flash flood Florida.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse with an elevated residual flood lane. Primary short-term ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in northern Broward County, Florida, and residual water over the Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys under the Slight Risk, on already saturated soils especially along the Florida east coast. Isolated severe wind and brief tornado potential under the Marginal Risk over the Mississippi Valley through tonight. Overnight Plains severe reports have closed. No tropical restoration drivers.

Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 3, 2026