Tag: Storm Updates

Real-time severe weather tracking, storm pulses, and meteorological incident reporting.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 28 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 28 Morning

    As of the morning desk on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (late evening update, approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 04:15 UTC October 29), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows probability of exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with the previous desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 evolved during the day. Morning and midday updates (1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) introduced a Slight Risk over eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin for isolated tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds. Tornado Watch 698 was issued at 3:40 PM CDT for eastern MN and northwest WI, valid until 9 PM CDT. By the 0100 UTC October 29 outlook the risk was downgraded to Marginal for the Upper Mississippi Valley; mode transitioned to mostly linear. Watch 698 has expired; no watches or Mesoscale Discussions currently valid.
    • Preliminary Local Storm Reports for October 28 include multiple hail reports in central and eastern Minnesota (dime to quarter-plus, including one 3.00-inch spikey near Grove City), isolated wind damage in Dakota County MN, and one weak tornado report (brief rotation, no damage) near Danbury, Burnett County WI around 5:40 PM CDT.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to show probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
    • No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet; Tropical Depression Vance in the Eastern Pacific poses no U.S. threat.
    • Severe lane opened temporarily to Slight then closed back to Marginal. Flood remains Quiet. Quiet Pulse criteria hold on the latest products.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (valid through 12Z October 29) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms from parts of southeast Minnesota into western and northern Wisconsin. A subtle shortwave and cold front support isolated thunderstorms with a localized severe threat early this evening; deep-layer shear is strong but instability limited. Threat expected to diminish overnight. No convective watches or active MDs.

    WPC Day 1 ERO shows no organized excessive rainfall risk; probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Residual Flood Warnings persist on rivers in Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico from prior rainfall.

    NWS has scattered Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood Advisories/Warnings, Wind Advisories, and a Winter Storm Warning in Alaska. No widespread severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings dominating the national map. Hawaii High Wind Warning on summits.

    Hotspots

    • Upper Mississippi Valley (MN/WI): Residual Marginal severe risk. Isolated hail and gusts possible early evening along the front. Population exposure limited; threat winding down after Watch 698. Multiple hail LSRs and one weak tornado already logged.
    • Residual river flooding zones (FL, Southwest): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in low-lying areas and arroyos.
    • Alaska: Winter Storm Warning continues for heavy snow on south slopes of the Western Brooks Range and Noatak Valley through Thursday. Travel impacts possible.

    Just Hit

    Hail reports from central Minnesota this afternoon (Blomkest, Granite Falls, Grove City areas) with sizes up to 3 inches in spots. One weak tornado reported near Danbury WI (brief, no damage). Isolated wind damage in eastern Minnesota. Residual river flooding continues on systems in Florida and the Southwest from prior events.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~04:15 UTC Oct 29 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TD Vance (EPAC) far offshore, no U.S. threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 29) Marginal Risk Upper MS Valley. Temporary Slight and Tornado Watch 698 earlier; both closed. Isolated LSRs logged. No active watches.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO <5% (no risk). Residual Flood Warnings on rivers. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Primary residual concerns are localized river and coastal flooding in Florida and the Southwest, plus any minor hail impacts in Minnesota. No organized severe or excessive rain event for broad restoration volume today. Alaska snow may produce isolated travel and structural issues in remote areas.

    What This Is Not

    Not a Slight or higher severe day on the latest outlook. Not a Moderate or higher flood risk day. Not a tropical landfall or coastal watch/warning day. Organized severe window for the Upper Midwest (Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 698) has closed for the evening.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Thursday: SPC Day 2 holds no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC outlooks point to increasing heavy rain potential across the Southern High Plains and Southwest as moisture and a trough approach. Florida rain risk diminishes. Quiet nationally for severe and tropical.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29 Morning

    As of the morning desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (updated late evening PDT / early October 30 UTC), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0132 UTC October 30) shows a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado early this evening. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, tied to moisture from the remnants of Vance. A Marginal Risk area is noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of West Texas and SE New Mexico through Friday evening.
    • Remnants of Vance (Eastern Pacific): NHC issued the final advisory (Advisory 35, 800 PM MST October 29). The system no longer has a well-defined center. Moisture continues to spread into the south-central and southwestern United States, but no U.S. land threat and no coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones with no formation expected in the next 7 days.
    • Residual Flood Warnings continue on the St. Johns River system in Florida (near Deland and Astor) and portions of New Mexico from prior rainfall, plus localized coastal flood advisories (California, Florida Keys). Winter Storm Warnings active in Alaska. These do not alter the national ERO lane beyond the Slight in the Southwest.
    • Nothing moved severe to Slight or above, flood to Moderate or above, or opened a tropical watch/warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Dominant residual ticket is the Slight excessive rainfall risk in West TX / SE NM from Vance moisture.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, 2026, valid through 12Z October 30) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. In Kansas, widely scattered thunderstorms are developing near a stalled front in a moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) with sufficient shear for cell rotation, supporting an isolated hail threat as storms move northeastward. In southwest Texas, weak instability and elevated low-level shear/helicity support a brief tornado possibility with low-topped cells early this evening. No current watches or active Mesoscale Discussions. Threat expected to diminish overnight with loss of instability.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC October 30, 2026) shows a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. High confidence in a heavy rainfall event through tonight as a mid-level disturbance associated with the remnants of Vance moves into the region. Southeasterly flow elevates PWATs to 1.5-2 inches. Hourly amounts to 2 inches possible with training or cell mergers; local totals to 5 inches near the TX/MX border. Marginal Risk near the KS/MO/NE/IA junction. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches cover much of the Slight Risk area through Friday evening.

    NWS has residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida, California). High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Overnight LSRs may include isolated hail in Kansas; no widespread damaging reports noted on latest scan.

    Hotspots

    • West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall tonight into Friday morning from Vance remnant moisture. Training storms and elevated PWATs support localized flash flooding, especially urban areas, roads, low-lying spots, and burn scars. Dominant residual restoration ticket. Flood Watches in effect.
    • Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Primary short-term severe focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson.
    • Southwest Texas: Localized brief tornado possible early this evening with low-topped cells in a moist airmass. Short-lived.
    • Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories. Not tied to the new ERO Slight.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~03Z Oct 30 2026 / ~8 PM PDT Oct 29)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture spreading into SW U.S. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~19k sq mi, ~592k people) for central/NE Kansas (isolated hail) and locally SW Texas (brief tornado possible). No active watches or MDs.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk for west/central Texas and SE New Mexico (Vance moisture). Marginal near KS/MO/NE/IA. Residual river Flood Warnings (FL St. Johns, NM) and coastal advisories continue. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches active in TX/NM.

    Rising Queries

    • flood watch
    • Texas flood
    • New Mexico rain
    • Vance moisture
    • Kansas hail

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse. Dominant residual ticket is localized flash flooding potential in west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Vance remnant moisture tonight into Friday, plus isolated hail in central/northeast Kansas and a very limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Residual river stage concerns on Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Sources: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO Slight Risk, updated 0132 UTC Oct 30), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, Flood Watches in TX/NM), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; Remnants of Vance EPAC final advisory). Afternoon desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 28

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 28

    As of the afternoon desk on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC October 29), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows probability of exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-28-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 evolved during the day. Midday updates (1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) introduced a Slight Risk over eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin for isolated tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds. Tornado Watch 698 was issued at 3:40 PM CDT for eastern MN and northwest WI, valid until 9 PM CDT. By the 0100 UTC October 29 outlook the risk was downgraded to Marginal for the Upper Mississippi Valley (~20,009 sq mi, population ~688,477 including Eau Claire WI); mode transitioned to mostly linear. Watch 698 has expired; no watches or Mesoscale Discussions currently valid.
    • Preliminary Local Storm Reports for October 28 include multiple hail reports in central and eastern Minnesota (dime to quarter-plus, including one 3.00-inch spikey near Grove City MN), isolated wind damage in Dakota County MN, and one weak tornado report (brief rotation, no damage) near Danbury, Burnett County WI around 5:40 PM CDT.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to show probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
    • No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet; Tropical Depression Vance in the Eastern Pacific poses no U.S. threat.
    • Severe lane opened temporarily to Slight then closed back to Marginal. Flood remains Quiet. Quiet Pulse criteria hold on the latest products.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (valid through 12Z October 29) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms from parts of southeast Minnesota into western and northern Wisconsin. A subtle shortwave and cold front support isolated thunderstorms with a localized severe threat early this evening; deep-layer shear is strong but instability limited. Threat expected to diminish overnight. No convective watches or active MDs.

    WPC Day 1 ERO shows no organized excessive rainfall risk; probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Residual Flood Warnings persist on rivers in Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico from prior rainfall.

    NWS has scattered Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood Advisories/Warnings, Wind Advisories, and a Winter Storm Warning in Alaska. No widespread severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings dominating the national map. Hawaii High Wind Warning on summits.

    Hotspots

    • Upper Mississippi Valley (MN/WI): Residual Marginal severe risk. Isolated hail and gusts possible early evening along the front. Population exposure limited; threat winding down after Watch 698. Multiple hail LSRs and one weak tornado already logged.
    • Residual river flooding zones (FL, Southwest): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in low-lying areas and arroyos.
    • Alaska: Winter Storm Warning continues for heavy snow on south slopes of the Western Brooks Range and Noatak Valley through Thursday. Travel impacts possible.

    Just Hit

    Hail reports from central Minnesota this afternoon (Blomkest, Granite Falls, Grove City areas) with sizes up to 3 inches in spots. One weak tornado reported near Danbury WI (brief, no damage). Isolated wind damage in eastern Minnesota. Residual river flooding continues on systems in Florida and the Southwest from prior events.

    Pulse Table

    Tropical: None | Severe: Marginal (Upper MS Valley) | Flood: Quiet | Other: Winter Storm Warning AK; scattered local Flood Warnings.

    Restoration Read

    Primary residual concerns are localized river and coastal flooding in Florida and the Southwest, plus any minor hail impacts in Minnesota. No organized severe or excessive rain event for broad restoration volume today. Alaska snow may produce isolated travel and structural issues in remote areas.

    What This Is Not

    Not a Slight or higher severe day on the latest outlook. Not a Moderate or higher flood risk day. Not a tropical landfall or coastal watch/warning day. Organized severe window for the Upper Midwest (Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 698) has closed for the evening.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Thursday: SPC Day 2 holds no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC outlooks point to increasing heavy rain potential across the Southern High Plains and Southwest as moisture and a trough approach. Florida rain risk diminishes. Quiet nationally for severe and tropical.

    Rising Queries

    Minnesota tornado watch, Wisconsin severe weather, Twin Cities storms, late October tornado, SPC Slight Risk Minnesota. (Tied to the daytime Upper Midwest severe window.)

    Sources

    This is a factual pulse of official products only. Conditions change; check local NWS offices for the latest. Not a forecast product.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 27

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 27

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Outlook updated at 0100 UTC Oct 28 (7:59 PM CDT Oct 27, valid 280100Z–281200Z) maintains a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms but contracts it to portions of Far West Texas only (approx. 7,958 sq mi, population ~15,706 including Pecos TX). Previously included southeast New Mexico. Isolated large hail possible for a few more hours this evening before the threat becomes minimal overnight with loss of heating.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0000 UTC Wed Oct 28, valid 01Z–12Z Wed Oct 28) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
    • No convective watches or current Mesoscale Discussions are valid. Earlier activity near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains has diminished. No new severe local storm reports elevating the day.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~40 mph, moving northwest offshore southwestern Mexico) poses no U.S. land threat.
    • Lanes unchanged overall. Severe remains Marginal (footprint reduced and short-term). Flood remains Quiet. Residual river Flood Warnings on the Rio Grande system and tributaries continue as the primary lingering concern.

    Live Status

    As of this Tuesday evening afternoon desk scan (approx. 04:14 UTC Oct 28 / 9:14 PM PDT Oct 27), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The latest SPC Day 1 places a Level 1 Marginal Risk over a small portion of Far West Texas for isolated severe thunderstorms for the next few hours this evening. A remaining storm or two could produce large hail before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Coverage stays low and population exposure is limited. No watches are in effect, and the overnight severe threat is minimal.

    WPC holds no Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook risk areas. Residual Flood Warnings persist on elevated rivers from prior multi-day rainfall across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin, including segments of the Rio Grande, Rio Chama, and related tributaries in New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas. Saturated soils maintain localized sensitivity for runoff even without new heavy rain. Coastal Flood Warnings remain active in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida east coast and southern California from tides and onshore flow, outside the main convective/ERO lanes.

    Hotspots

    • Far West Texas: SPC Marginal (contracted). Isolated thunderstorms with large hail possible near Pecos for a few more hours this evening. Low population exposure and sparse coverage limit impacts. No elevated tornado risk. Threat minimal overnight.
    • Residual Rio Grande and tributary river flooding (NM, CO, TX): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior heavy rain. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in arroyos, low-water crossings, and low-lying areas.
    • Coastal Florida and southern California: Coastal Flood Warnings and high rip current risks continue from onshore flow and high tides. Secondary concern only.

    Just-Hit

    Minor to moderate river flooding continues on Rio Grande system segments and related tributaries. Earlier convective activity in far West Texas and southeast New Mexico has largely diminished. No widespread damage reports. Localized water intrusion and road impacts remain possible on saturated ground. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~04Z Oct 28 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC, ~40 mph, NW) far offshore SW Mexico, no U.S. threat. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 28) Marginal Risk Far West TX only (~8k sq mi). Isolated large hail possible a few more hours this evening. No watches or MDs. Threat minimal overnight.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO <5% (no risk). Residual Flood Warnings on Rio Grande system. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Primary residual ticket remains localized river flooding and saturated-soil runoff impacts across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin. Isolated large hail in the short-term Marginal severe area of Far West Texas could cause limited roof, vehicle, or window damage, but low coverage keeps effects sparse. No organized severe or excessive rainfall expected tonight. Coastal flooding is tide-driven and secondary. Monitor previously warned zones for lingering water intrusion and road closures.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. SPC is only Marginal (not Slight or above). No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning. Always verify with weather.gov for your local area.

    Looking Ahead

    Wednesday Day 2: SPC Marginal severe risk over the Upper Mississippi Valley (conditional isolated hail/wind if heating occurs). WPC Day 2 Marginal excessive rainfall for east-central and southeast Florida. Day 3 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of West and Central Texas as remnant moisture from TS Vance is drawn northward—monitor closely, as organized convection on sensitive ground could elevate flash flood potential. Residual flood sensitivity lingers in the Southwest.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 28), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO <5%, issued ~0000 UTC Oct 28), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance EPAC). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 27 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 27 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with the prior afternoon desk pulse (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Outlook introduced then held a Marginal Risk. The 0100 UTC Oct 28 update (7:59 PM CDT) contracts the Marginal to a small portion of Far West Texas (~7,958 sq mi, population ~15,706 including Pecos TX). Previously broader SE NM into Far West TX. Isolated severe possible for a few more hours this evening before minimal overnight.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0000 UTC Wed Oct 28, valid 01Z–12Z Wed Oct 28) remains probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas. Prior Marginal Risks have ended.
    • Residual Flood Warnings continue on the Rio Grande system and tributaries in New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Texas from prior multi-day rainfall. Saturated soils persist. Some earlier Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (e.g., Reeves and Jeff Davis Counties TX) verified isolated hail/wind but no widespread reports.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~40 mph, moving NW well offshore southwestern Mexico) poses no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal with contraction and short-term focus; Flood remains Quiet. Residual river flooding is the primary lingering concern. Nothing material upgraded beyond Marginal.

    Live Status

    As of the Tuesday evening scan for the October 27 morning desk (approx. 04:12 UTC Oct 28 / 9:12 PM PDT Oct 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC places a Level 1 Marginal Risk over a small portion of Far West Texas for isolated severe thunderstorms for a few more hours this evening. A remaining storm or two could pose an isolated large hail threat before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Coverage is low. No convective watches or active Mesoscale Discussions. The severe threat becomes minimal for the remainder of the overnight period.

    WPC confirms no Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Risk (probability <5%). Residual river Flood Warnings continue on the Rio Grande, Rio Puerco, Rio Chama, San Juan River, and related segments across NM, CO, UT, and TX due to prior multi-day rainfall and saturated soils. Coastal Flood Warnings exist in limited coastal areas (Florida Keys, northeast Florida, San Diego/Orange County) driven by onshore flow and high tides but fall outside main lanes. Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Warnings earlier this evening (Midland/Odessa for Reeves/Jeff Davis Counties) indicated hail to 1.5" and gusts to 60 mph, but no widespread LSRs.

    Hotspots

    • Far West Texas: SPC Marginal (contracted). Isolated thunderstorms with large hail possible this evening near Pecos. Low population exposure and sparse coverage limit impacts. Threat winds down overnight.
    • Residual river flooding zones: Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events on the Rio Grande system and tributaries. Saturated soils elevate sensitivity for runoff in arroyos and low-lying areas.

    Just-Hit

    Minor to moderate river flooding continues on segments of the Rio Grande and tributaries. Earlier flash flood concerns have largely expired. Isolated severe thunderstorm activity produced localized hail and wind reports in Far West Texas this evening but nothing widespread. Localized water intrusion and road impacts remain possible on saturated ground. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~04Z Oct 28 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC, ~40 mph, NW) far offshore SW Mexico, no U.S. threat. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk Far West TX (~8k sq mi). Isolated large hail possible for a few more hours this evening. No watches. Threat minimal overnight.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO <5% (no risk). Residual Flood Warnings on Rio Grande system. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Primary residual ticket is localized river flooding impacts from prior heavy rain across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin, with saturated soils. Isolated large hail possible in the Marginal severe area of Far West TX could produce localized roof, vehicle, or window damage, but low coverage limits effects. No organized severe or excessive rainfall expected tonight. Monitor for lingering water intrusion and road closures in previously warned zones. Coastal flooding is tide-driven and secondary.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. SPC is only Marginal (not Slight or above). No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning. Always verify with weather.gov for your local area.

    Looking Ahead

    Wednesday Day 2: SPC Marginal severe risk potential over the Upper Mississippi Valley. WPC Day 2 Marginal excessive rainfall for east-central/southeast Florida. Day 3 may bring elevated rainfall risks into portions of Texas as remnant moisture interacts with shortwave features. Residual flood sensitivity lingers in the Southwest where soils remain wet.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100 UTC Oct 28; prior 2000Z), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO <5%), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, isolated SVRs), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-afternoon.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 26

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 26

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC / 2:54 PM CDT Monday, October 26, 2026, valid 262000Z–271200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated strong thunderstorms remain possible across far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, but organized severe potential is low. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently valid.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 27 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, October 26, valid 01Z–12Z October 27) holds a MARGINAL RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (footprint reduced) and the mid to lower Texas Coast from Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay. No Slight or higher.
    • Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in west-central Chaves County, New Mexico, and portions of far west Texas / Texas Panhandle. Minor flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, weakening, moving west well south of Mexico) and Post-Tropical Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
    • Nothing material moved to open a Slight or higher lane. Severe remains Quiet; flood remains Marginal. Quiet Pulse holds.

    Live Status

    As of this Monday afternoon desk, October 26, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT / 0414Z October 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through the remainder of the Day 1 period. Isolated thunderstorms continue along the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West Texas under modest instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) but limited effective shear (≤30 kt), keeping the severe threat isolated. No watches or MDs are in effect.

    WPC holds only Marginal Risks. On the High Plains, scattered storms associated with a shortwave may produce localized heavy rain, especially near terrain or on already wet soils. Along the mid to lower Texas Coast, increasing precipitable water and southerly flow support potential for localized heavy amounts near the immediate coast, with isolated flooding possible in urbanized areas. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    Hotspots

    • Southeast New Mexico and far west Texas (Sacramento / Davis Mountains corridor): Residual isolated strong storms and active Flash Flood Warnings on sensitive terrain and saturated soils.
    • Central and southern High Plains (Texas Panhandle into adjacent New Mexico/Kansas): WPC Marginal. Isolated training storms possible with localized 1–2 inches; flash-flood risk mainly on sensitive soils.
    • Mid to lower Texas Coast (Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay): Marginal ERO. Localized heavy rain possible near the immediate coast with potential for isolated urban flooding.

    Just-Hit

    Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for west-central Chaves County, New Mexico. Additional Flash Flood Warnings for portions of far west Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Minor river flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas. No widespread severe local storm reports confirmed today beyond isolated strong cells. Localized road and low-lying flooding continues in the warned areas.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 27 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and Post-Tropical Olana (CPAC) far from U.S. land. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereQuietSPC Day 1 (2000Z Oct 26): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated storms possible far west TX/SE NM. No watches or MDs.
    FloodMarginalWPC Day 1 Marginal Risk High Plains (reduced) + mid/lower Texas Coast. Active FFWs in NM/TX. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Residual ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff on saturated soils, arroyos, small streams, urban corridors, and burn scars across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated strong storms may produce brief hail or gusty winds but no organized severe damage expected. Texas Coast carries a secondary urban flash-flood ticket under the Marginal. No widespread catastrophic damage. Monitor for lingering water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead

    Tuesday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Residual flash-flood sensitivity may linger where soils remain saturated on the High Plains and Texas Coast, but the overall threat winds down overnight into early Tuesday. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, 01Z update), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance / Post-Tropical Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25

    As of this Sunday afternoon desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 8:15 PM PDT / 03:15 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains and southeast Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25 / 2:55 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle (roughly 92,000 sq mi, 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, Roswell). Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this afternoon/evening. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Threat remains isolated.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (West Texas, New Mexico, Colorado) and southeast Florida. Highest rainfall rates 1–1.5 inches per hour possible over already saturated soils in the Southwest. No Moderate or above.
    • Local NWS offices continue to issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (e.g., near Roswell in Chaves County) and residual Flash Flood concerns. Flood Watches remain on saturated soils in New Mexico. No elevation of any lane.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
    • Nothing moved beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas where MLCAPE values support stronger cells under 30–40+ kt effective shear. No changes were made to the existing outlook in the 2000Z update. No convective watches are active.

    NWS Albuquerque has issued recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for areas near Roswell (central Chaves County) with 60 mph gusts and half-dollar size hail possible. Flood Watches cover portions of central and eastern New Mexico on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. Residual flash-flood risk persists in urban corridors and small streams.

    WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains and southeast Florida. In the High Plains, PWAT values support rainfall rates up to 1–1.5 inches per hour. In southeast Florida, onshore flow supports 1–2 inches with urban flash-flood potential along the I-95 corridor. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    Hotspots

    • Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active or recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Flood Watches on saturated soils.
    • Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
    • Southeast Florida: WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Onshore flow and coastal convergence support 1–2 inches with locally higher totals. Urban flash-flood potential along the I-95 corridor.

    Just-Hit

    Recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings near Roswell (Chaves County) for 60 mph gusts and hail. Residual Flash Flood concerns on saturated soils. No confirmed significant tornado reports this evening. Localized flooding and isolated severe impacts continue in the Southwest.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~03:15 UTC Oct 26 2026 / 8:15 PM PDT Oct 25)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over NM into far west TX and western TX Panhandle. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains and SE Florida. Residual FF concerns and Flood Watches in NM. Saturated soils. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, Roswell, El Paso), small streams, and burn scars on already saturated soils. Southeast Florida carries an urban flash-flood ticket under the Slight ERO. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead

    Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe risk area. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 25), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance and TS Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 26 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 26 Morning

    As of this late Monday evening update for the October 26 morning desk (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 04:12 UTC October 27, 2026), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC October 26 update, valid through 1200Z October 27) lists no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC October 27) maintains a Marginal Risk for portions of the central and southern High Plains and the mid to lower Texas coast. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Marginal

    What Changed

    • Compared with the earlier pulse on this same slug (published ~10:16 PM PDT October 25 and updated through the afternoon): SPC Day 1 remains at No Severe thunderstorm areas forecast. The prior Marginal Risk over New Mexico into far west Texas closed with the eastward shift of the shortwave and loss of stronger shear.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Marginal Risk from southeastern New Mexico and West Texas to central Kansas, plus the mid to lower Texas coast (Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay). No Moderate or above. Footprint reduced from earlier Slight.
    • NWS continues isolated Flash Flood Warnings in portions of West Texas (Jeff Davis, Reeves, Pecos) and New Mexico (Chaves), plus a Flood Warning for the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas (minor flooding). No active convective watches or mesoscale discussions. Overnight LSRs show limited verification of organized severe.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic basin quiet with no tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, weakening) and Post-Tropical Cyclone Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe lane closed. Flood lane at Marginal. Quiet Pulse criteria fully met. Residual ticket is localized flash-flood runoff on sensitive terrain and the Texas coast.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 26, issued 2:54 PM CDT, with later confirmation) states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST.” Isolated thunderstorm development occurred earlier along the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West Texas under 1000–1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but stronger mid/upper-level flow shifted eastward, limiting effective shear to generally 30 kts or less. Organized severe potential remains low. No convective watches are active. Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks also show no severe areas.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (850 PM EDT October 26, valid 01Z–12Z October 27) maintains a Marginal Risk from southeastern New Mexico and West Texas to central Kansas, plus the mid to lower Texas coast. Isolated heavy amounts over 3 inches possible near the immediate coast where slow-moving storms may develop under increasing PWAT; rates limited elsewhere by modest instability. No Moderate or higher risk.

    NWS offices hold Flash Flood Warnings for portions of Jeff Davis, Reeves, and Pecos Counties in Texas and Chaves County in New Mexico. A Flood Warning continues for the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas (minor flooding, stage near 15.1 feet earlier). Coastal Flood Warnings and Wind Advisories remain active in the Florida Keys and southeast Florida under northeast flow (non-convective). Alaska carries Winter Storm Warnings and High Wind Warnings, outside CONUS severe/flood thresholds for this desk.

    Hotspots

    • Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas (High Plains): Residual Marginal ERO. Isolated flash flooding possible on saturated soils, arroyos, and urban areas. Severe threat closed.
    • Mid to lower Texas coast (Matagorda Bay to Baffin Bay): Marginal Risk for localized heavy rain under increasing PWAT and slow-moving coastal storms. Urban flash flooding possible.

    Just-Hit

    Recent Flash Flood Warnings for East Central Jeff Davis County and adjacent areas in southwestern Texas (radar-indicated). River Flood Warning for the Rio Grande near Castolon affecting Brewster County (minor flooding of lowlands and park roads). No widespread severe reports in the latest cycle. Residual runoff continues where soils remain sensitive from prior days.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 04:12 UTC Oct 27 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC, weakening) and Post-Tropical Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1: No Severe Thunderstorm Areas Forecast (2000Z Oct 26). Prior Marginal over NM/TX closed. No active watches. Day 2–3 quiet.
    FloodMarginalWPC Day 1 Marginal Risk for High Plains and mid/lower Texas coast. Isolated FFWs in TX/NM. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse. Residual restoration ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff on sensitive terrain, burn scars, arroyos, and urban corridors across southeastern New Mexico, West Texas, and the mid to lower Texas coast under the Marginal ERO. Isolated water intrusion and debris possible. No organized severe (hail, wind, tornado) ticket remains open. Monitor for lingering river stages on the Rio Grande and any coastal heavy rain cells.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead

    Tuesday Day 2: SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. The upper trough continues to eject. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains localized where soils are saturated or under any coastal convection. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 0051 UTC Oct 27), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Updated in place from earlier morning desk.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25

    As of this Sunday evening desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25 / 2:55 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle (roughly 92,000 sq mi, 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, Roswell). Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this evening. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Threat remains isolated.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0103 UTC October 26 / 9:03 PM EDT October 25, valid 01Z–12Z October 26) maintains a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (Far West Texas through the Panhandle into southwestern Kansas). Florida Slight Risk was removed and reduced to Marginal along the coast. Training storms and saturated soils support localized flash flooding. No Moderate or above.
    • Local NWS offices continue to issue Flash Flood Warnings (e.g., Eddy County NM, Lincoln/Chaves Counties) and occasional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of New Mexico on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
    • Nothing elevated any lane beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. No convective watches are active. Mesoscale Discussions earlier in the day (including MD 2409) indicated watch unlikely.

    NWS Albuquerque and neighboring offices have active or recent Flash Flood Warnings for areas including southwestern Eddy County (Carlsbad Caverns area), southeastern Lincoln and west-central Chaves Counties, with radar-indicated heavy rain of 1–4 inches. Flood Watches cover portions of east-central, northeast, and southeast New Mexico through late tonight. Saturated soils elevate runoff risk in arroyos, low-water crossings, and urban areas.

    WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains. Neighborhood probabilities support additional 1–2 inch amounts with training storms. Florida risk stepped down to Marginal. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    Hotspots

    • Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell, Carlsbad corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches on saturated soils; river flooding residual.
    • Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban and arroyo runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
    • Central and southern High Plains (into southwestern Kansas): WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Training storms support localized flash flooding on saturated ground.

    Just-Hit

    Flash Flood Warnings active or recent in Eddy, Lincoln, and Chaves Counties with 1–4 inches of rain and ongoing or imminent flooding of roads, low-lying areas, and arroyos. Flood Watches continue across multiple New Mexico zones. Occasional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for hail and gusts. No confirmed significant tornado reports this evening. Localized flooding and isolated severe impacts continue in the Southwest. San Juan River residual flooding from prior crest near Shiprock.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC Oct 26 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over NM into far west TX and western TX Panhandle. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening/overnight.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains. Active FFWs and Flood Watches in NM. Saturated soils. Florida now Marginal. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary and more widespread ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, Roswell, Carlsbad, El Paso), small streams, canyons, arroyos, and burn scars on already saturated soils. High Plains training rain supports additional runoff. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead

    Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 25), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 0103Z Oct 26), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance and TS Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25 Morning

    As of this Sunday evening update to the morning desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas on the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 26 update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening and overnight. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the earlier version of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 26 / 7:44 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas (approx. 56,500 sq mi, 1.1 million people including Roswell, Alamogordo, Clovis, Carlsbad). Area has contracted from the earlier 2000Z update. Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this evening/night. No active watches (Watch 697 expired). Threat remains isolated.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0103 UTC October 26) holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (Far West Texas through the Panhandle into southwestern Kansas). Marginal Risk remains along the southeast Florida coast after the Slight was removed. No Moderate or above.
    • Overnight local NWS Flash Flood Warnings were issued for portions of Eddy County in New Mexico and Hudspeth/El Paso Counties in Texas with radar-indicated heavy rain. Flood sensitivity remains elevated on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
    • Nothing elevated any lane beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and into the night. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible along a reinforced baroclinic zone. Greater buoyancy supports stronger cells under 35-50 kt shear south of the boundary. No convective watches are active. Mesoscale discussions note watch issuance unlikely.

    WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains. Favorable upper jet and mid-level forcing with persistent southerly inflow support moderate to heavy rain and training storms, with additional 1-2 inch amounts possible. Eastern Marginal extent was pulled westward. Southeast Florida carries a Marginal Risk after the Slight was dropped; showers remain progressive. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    NWS offices issued Flash Flood Warnings overnight for western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Flood Watches may continue where multi-day rainfall has left soils saturated. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for portions of Alaska, but these do not affect the CONUS Quiet Pulse.

    Hotspots

    • Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas (Roswell, Carlsbad, Alamogordo, Clovis corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible this evening. Recent Flash Flood Warnings. Elevated runoff risk on saturated soils.
    • Southeast Florida: WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Onshore flow supports isolated heavy showers. Urban flash-flood potential limited.

    Just-Hit

    Overnight Flash Flood Warnings for portions of Eddy County NM (Carlsbad Caverns area) and Hudspeth/El Paso Counties TX with 0.5-2 inches radar-indicated. Localized flooding of roads, arroyos, and low-lying areas. No confirmed significant tornado reports. Isolated severe and flood impacts continue in the Southwest.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~0412Z Oct 26 2026 / 9:12 PM PDT Oct 25)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z) Marginal Risk over eastern NM into Far West TX. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening/night.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains. Marginal for SE Florida. Recent FFWs in TX/NM. Saturated soils. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors, small streams, canyons, and burn scars on already saturated soils. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead

    Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe risk area. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous version of this desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.