Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet
What Changed
- Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has fully closed. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no categorical severe risk and no watches.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has ended for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific as of the 800 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. AL93 (non-tropical low off the mid-Atlantic coast) continues with a medium (40%) chance of subtropical development, but remains offshore with no U.S. watches or warnings. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
- Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
- Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. The national picture remains Quiet Pulse for the morning desk.
Live Status
As of this Tuesday morning desk update, October 20, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 21 / 0412Z October 21), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may continue this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, but any severe risk is expected to remain limited and isolated. No convective watches are in effect.
The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. WPC shows less than 5 percent probability of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida and Georgia (including moderate stage on the St. Johns near Astor), and winter storm products remain active in Alaska, but these do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall criteria. Coastal and marine products persist along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low, but these are not inland flash-flood events.
No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins have no tropical cyclones. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings.
Hotspots
Desert Southwest / Intermountain West: Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening into tonight. Transient organization possible earlier, but overall severe threat remains limited. No categorical risk or watches. The higher-end threat arrives Wednesday.
Looking ahead — Arizona and Southwest: SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of Arizona, including large hail and tornado potential, especially higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches already issued for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. This is the dominant upcoming peril.
Alaska: Multiple Winter Storm Warnings continue for heavy snow, with significant accumulations at higher elevations and travel impacts possible. Outside CONUS focus.
Just-Hit
Overnight and early Tuesday activity was limited. Prior Marginal Risk reports from Monday evening (isolated 1.25-inch hail and wind damage in SE AZ/SW NM) have closed with the risk area. No widespread severe or flash-flood reports noted for the current Day 1 period.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT / 0412Z 21 Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. No tropical cyclones in Atlantic, East Pac, or Central Pac. AL93 offshore non-tropical low (40% subtropical chance). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings. |
| Severe | Quiet | SPC Day 1: No Severe Thunderstorm Areas. Isolated storms possible Desert Southwest but limited threat. No watches. Day 2 Enhanced Risk AZ for Wednesday. |
| Flood | Quiet | WPC Day 1: probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings FL/GA. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest. Flood Watches already out for AZ starting Wednesday. |
Rising Queries
“Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Trends for the broader severe risk are building but not yet dominant nationally.
Restoration Read
Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. The isolated activity possible in the Southwest this evening is expected to remain limited. Standard quiet-day posture applies. Looking ahead one day, the Enhanced severe risk and Slight excessive rainfall risk over Arizona on Wednesday, combined with already-issued Flood Watches, represent the first material increase in restoration potential this week. Monitor local NWS offices (Phoenix, Flagstaff) and SPC/WPC updates. No widespread event is underway today.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on Day 1, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Looking Ahead One Day
Wednesday brings an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential, especially over higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona. This is the dominant near-term concern. No tropical development expected for the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Sources
- Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon
- SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
- SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
- WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?day=2
- NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
- NWS watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all
Informational only — not an official warning. This desk is compiled from official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for situational awareness only. Always verify the latest local forecasts and warnings at weather.gov before making decisions. Turn around, don’t drown.
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