Tag: Arizona

  • Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning

    Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning

    As of this Thursday morning desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 23 / 0412Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues moving away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon) and the prior version of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico (expanded southward into NW NM). Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Surrounding Slight Risk remains.
    • NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch have been in effect across portions of Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) and other Four Corners drainages. Flood Watches continue regionally.
    • Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk is the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This morning desk is updated in place under the standard slug; afternoon companion already live under quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-afternoon.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and the Four Corners. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy supports robust storms into the evening (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg in favored areas) with deep-layer shear of 50–60 kt. Primary hazards are large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two, maximized from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the Great Basin.

    WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Antecedent rainfall, upslope flow and training convection support elevated flash-flood potential. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible; additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) expected in the Moderate area. A broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest terrain. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations. Flash Flood Warnings verified in upstream Arizona basins.

    Eastern and central Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and topography align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain in or near the risk area. Flash flooding accompanies the convection.

    Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.

    Just-Hit

    National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been in effect for portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings are active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 23 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneJosephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, few tornadoes. Prior Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Watch in AZ. Marginal elsewhere.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains scattered.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

    Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

    As of this Thursday afternoon desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 23 / 0414Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico, with scattered severe storms remaining possible across the Southwest and Great Basin into the evening. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues accelerating northeastward away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-morning): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight; category unchanged.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible amid training convection and upslope flow; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Slight Risk surrounds it. Category unchanged from morning.
    • NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low (last advisory). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning remains in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and watches have been in effect across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Tornado Warnings were issued earlier for parts of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and into New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat, and other Four Corners drainages. Local storm reports continue to verify large hail and damaging winds.
    • Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk remains the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This afternoon desk updates in place under the standard slug and links the morning desk under Sources.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy around 1000 J/kg supports robust storms into the evening, with favorable deep-layer shear (50–60 kt) for hail and severe gusts. A tornado or two remains possible, particularly from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Farther north into the Great Basin, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible under more limited buoyancy, with damaging gusts the primary hazard. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the region.

    WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Anomalous moisture, diffluent flow, and training convection continue to support flash flooding. The San Juans see the heaviest accumulations, with model consensus for 3–4 inches and localized higher. Broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest and Four Corners areas. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Flash Flood Warnings already verified in parts of Arizona that feed into the region. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations.

    Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk with active convection. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and terrain align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain influenced. Flash flooding accompanies the convection. Verifying reports of hail and wind continue.

    Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.

    Just-Hit

    National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. Tornado Warnings were issued this afternoon for portions of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and parts of New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors. No confirmed tornado damage reports received so far today. No widespread major river flooding reported.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 23 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneJosephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, tornado or two possible. Prior warnings and watches in AZ/NM. LSRs verifying hail/wind. Marginal elsewhere.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ and NM. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. Isolated tornado potential adds tree and structure damage risk where rotation was indicated. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated to scattered severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains limited.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Arizona–New Mexico Slight — Oct 23 Morning

    Storm Updates: Arizona–New Mexico Slight — Oct 23 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk pulse table (SPC Slight over much of Arizona into SE Nevada/SW Utah): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23 / 6:00 PM PDT October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z, issued 0801 PM CDT) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two remain possible into the evening. The axis has shifted eastward as the upper trough progresses.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watches #691 and #692 issued earlier on October 22 for Arizona have expired (by 1700–1800 UTC). Overnight local storm reports and warnings verified large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding across Arizona higher terrain, Phoenix metro approaches, and southern Utah canyons. No new convective watches are active as of this desk.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC October 22, valid 16Z Oct 22–12Z Oct 23) introduces a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado and southern Utah, with a broad Slight risk remaining across the Southwest including Arizona and western New Mexico. This is an upgrade from the prior Slight-only footprint over the same region. Anomalous moisture and orographic enhancement drive the higher threat.
    • Subtropical Storm Josephine continues accelerating northeastward away from the United States, forecast to become a powerful extratropical cyclone. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific with no U.S. threat.
    • The restoration ticket remains driven by Arizona/New Mexico severe (hail and wind) plus the new Moderate flood risk over southern Utah and southwest Colorado. Quiet Pulse is closed.

    Live Status

    As of this Thursday evening / Friday morning desk, October 23, 2026 (approximately 6:16 PM PDT October 22 / 0116Z October 23), the SPC maintains a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico through the remainder of the evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk wind difference 50–60 kt) support a mix of supercells and linear clusters. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards; a tornado or two is possible where low-level flow is backed near northwestern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain. Isolated strong to severe storms continue farther north into the Great Basin with more limited buoyancy.

    The flood lane has upgraded to Moderate. WPC Day 1 places a Moderate risk over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains) and southern Utah, where prior heavy rainfall has elevated hydrologic sensitivity. Storm totals of 3–4 inches (locally 5+) are forecast, with orographic enhancement and rates periodically reaching 0.5 inch per hour. A broad Slight risk covers the remainder of the Southwest, including Arizona and western New Mexico, where convective rates of 1–2 inches per hour remain possible with training cells. Marginal risks cover portions of central California and southeast Florida.

    The tropical lane remains closed for U.S. land impact. Subtropical Storm Josephine is accelerating northeastward away from the Mid-Atlantic, expected to transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. See the Josephine 2026 storm hub.

    Hotspots

    Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico: Primary remaining severe threat this evening. Ongoing convection organized into supercells and clusters capable of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes as the main band shifts eastward.

    Southwest Colorado and southern Utah: Moderate excessive rainfall risk. San Juan Mountains and slot canyons/washes are the focus for significant flash flooding given prior rainfall and continued moisture plume.

    Central Arizona and Phoenix metro approaches: Included in the Slight severe and Slight flood envelopes earlier in the day; residual risk for heavy rain and isolated strong storms as the axis moves east.

    Just-Hit

    Local storm reports and NWS warnings through October 22 document large hail (quarter to golf-ball size and larger), damaging wind gusts to 60+ mph, and flash flooding across Arizona counties including Navajo, Apache, Gila, Maricopa, and Pinal. Flash Flood Warnings have been active on Chinle Creek and Canyon de Chelly National Monument, with river gauges indicating life-threatening flooding in places. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings covered areas near Show Low, Globe, and Superior. Southern Utah canyons between Zion and Bryce saw flash flooding. No new major river flooding is reported beyond these local impacts, but the Moderate risk supports continued high runoff potential overnight into early October 23.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~6:16 PM PDT Oct 22 / 0116Z Oct 23 2026)
    TropicalNoneSubtropical Storm Josephine accelerating NE away from the U.S., transitioning to extratropical. No coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM for large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornado. Prior watches expired. Marginal farther north into Great Basin.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 Moderate over SW Colorado and southern Utah; Slight across Southwest including AZ/western NM. Orographic 3–5″ totals possible in San Juans. Prior Flash Flood Warnings verified.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable

    Restoration Read

    Dominant ticket is Arizona/New Mexico severe (Slight risk with verified hail and wind damage from prior rounds) plus the upgraded Moderate flood risk over southern Utah and southwest Colorado. Phoenix metro and central Arizona face residual heavy rain and isolated strong storms as the axis shifts east. Monitor official sources for active Flash Flood and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The October 21 afternoon desk is linked under Sources.

    What This Is Not

    This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. A Moderate excessive rainfall risk is in effect over portions of southwest Colorado and southern Utah; Slight severe risk covers eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active.

    Looking Ahead

    Friday: SPC Day 2 carries a Marginal risk. WPC Day 2 continues excessive rainfall potential over portions of the West as the trough progresses. Josephine continues as a powerful extratropical system well offshore. The primary severe and flood axes continue shifting eastward overnight into early Friday, with decreasing coverage as buoyancy wanes.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21

    Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (which carried an Enhanced risk over central Arizona): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z, issued 0800 PM CDT) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Large hail remains the primary threat, with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds possible overnight. The categorical risk stepped down from the earlier Enhanced area focused on Flagstaff–Prescott–Sedona.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been active across northern and central Arizona; earlier Tornado Watch 688 transitioned. Local storm reports through the day and evening include hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf ball to larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa, plus measured gusts to 60+ mph. Flash Flood Warnings continue on higher terrain, burn scars, and dry washes in Arizona and southern Utah.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over the Southwest and Four Corners, including Southern California ranges and much of Arizona. No upgrade to Moderate. A Marginal risk persists near the lower Texas coast.
    • Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory 1 at 5 PM AST, subsequent updates) is centered near 37.4N 69.5W with 65 mph winds, moving north then accelerating northeast away from the United States. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Tropical Storm Vance remains far south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific.
    • The morning desk is linked under Sources. Arizona severe and Southwest flood lanes remain open as the restoration drivers. Quiet Pulse is closed.

    Live Status

    As of this Wednesday afternoon desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 22 / 0414Z October 22), the SPC lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of Arizona, including the Phoenix metro (Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale), extending into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah through the overnight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat, with severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible where low-level curvature increases near the Mogollon Rim and local terrain.

    The flood lane stays Slight. WPC continues the Slight risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners, driven by a deep cyclone near the California coast scooping anomalous tropical moisture (IVT values of 300–700 kg/ms, PWAT 0.75–1.5 inches). Hourly rainfall amounts to 2–2.5 inches remain possible with training or backbuilding over terrain, burn scars, urban areas, slot canyons, and dry washes. Day 2 outlooks maintain Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona.

    The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. Subtropical Storm Josephine is a few hundred miles offshore the Mid-Atlantic, forecast to move northeastward away from the United States with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual coastal flood and high-surf products from the offshore system continue along parts of the East Coast but do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall thresholds. See the Josephine 2026 storm hub.

    Hotspots

    Central and northern Arizona (Mogollon Rim to Flagstaff–Prescott): Primary overnight severe threat. Ongoing and additional supercells capable of large hail (up to 2+ inches), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Multiple warnings and reports have already verified across Yavapai, Coconino, and Navajo counties.

    Phoenix metro and southern Arizona: Included in the Slight risk envelope. Multiple rounds of storms have produced hail and wind damage; continued supercell potential overnight as the axis shifts eastward.

    Southern California coastal ranges and Transverse Ranges: Marginal severe (isolated gusts, low-end tornado potential) plus Slight flood risk as the Pacific cyclone approaches. Terrain-enhanced rainfall and burn-scar runoff are the primary concerns.

    Just-Hit

    Local storm reports and media accounts through the day and early evening document hail of 1–2.5 inches (golf-ball size and larger) near Flagstaff, Prescott, Deer Valley, Mesa, Safford, and Maricopa County, with reports of shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees (including ponderosa pines in the Coconino National Forest). Tornado warnings were issued for parts of Coconino and Yavapai Counties. Flash Flood Warnings remain active over parts of southern Utah, Arizona burn scars, and higher terrain. No widespread major river flooding is reported, but the setup supports rapid runoff overnight.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 22 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneSubtropical Storm Josephine ~37.4N 69.5W, 65 mph, accelerating NE away from the U.S. No coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into SE NV/SW UT for large hail, couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. Active warnings and verifying LSRs.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight over Southwest/Four Corners including SoCal ranges and AZ. Hourly 2–2.5″ possible. Burn scars, urban areas, canyons primary concern.

    Rising Queries

    • Arizona tornado watch
    • Phoenix hail storm October 21
    • Flagstaff severe weather
    • Mogollon Rim storms
    • Southern California flash flood

    Restoration Read

    Dominant ticket is Arizona severe (Slight overnight after daytime Enhanced verification with large hail and wind damage) plus Southwest Slight flood risk. Phoenix metro and central Arizona face continued supercell potential tonight. Southern California sees the moisture plume and terrain-enhanced rain. Monitor official sources for active warnings. This morning’s desk is linked under Sources.

    What This Is Not

    This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. No Moderate or higher flood risk is in effect on Day 1, no U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active, and the severe categorical risk has stepped down from Enhanced to Slight for the overnight period.

    Looking Ahead

    Thursday: SPC Day 2 carries a Slight risk over portions of southeast Arizona. WPC Day 2 continues Slight excessive rainfall potential over the Southwest. Josephine becomes post-tropical and accelerates farther northeast. The Pacific cyclone continues to influence California and the Southwest through Thursday, with the primary severe axis shifting eastward into Arizona and southwest New Mexico overnight into early Thursday.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21 Morning

    Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 22 / 6:00 PM PDT October 21, 2026, valid 220100Z–221200Z) holds a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms for much of Arizona into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah. Earlier Enhanced risk over central Arizona has closed with the end of peak diurnal heating; supercells remain possible overnight.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watches 689 and 690 remain active over central and southern Arizona. Multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings verified earlier; LSRs include large hail (up to golf-ball size) and damaging winds in Yavapai, Coconino, and Maricopa Counties.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0015 UTC October 22, valid 01Z–12Z October 22) maintains a SLIGHT RISK over portions of southern California and the Southwest U.S. (including much of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, western New Mexico). No upgrade to Moderate. Heavy rainfall rates continue with the moist plume and upper low.
    • NHC continues advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine (Advisory ~2: ~37.7°N 69.4°W, 65 mph, moving NNE at 6 mph, expected to accelerate northeast away from the U.S. and become extratropical with hurricane-force winds). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. threat. Storm hub: Josephine 2026.
    • Both severe and flood lanes remain open at Slight. Restoration focus stays on Arizona hail/wind/isolated tornado damage plus Southwest flash-flood potential from ongoing convection. Quiet Pulse remains closed.

    Live Status

    As of this Wednesday evening update to the morning desk, October 21, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 22 / 0412Z October 22), the national picture centers on the Southwest. SPC Day 1 lists a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across much of Arizona (including the Phoenix metro: Phoenix, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler, Scottsdale) into far southeast Nevada and southwest Utah for tonight. Marginal risk covers coastal central and southern California. Supercells are favored with elongated hodographs and 55–65 kt effective shear; large hail is the primary threat (locally 2+ inches possible), with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds also possible given residual low-level shear and terrain influences. MUCAPE remains 1000–1500 J/kg under the advancing cold core of the deep upper low off the California coast. Additional development is expected across south-central Arizona overnight as shortwave energy approaches from Mexico.

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689 covers central and southern Arizona until roughly 9:00 PM MST, with primary threats of scattered large hail (isolated very large), damaging winds to 70 mph, and a tornado or two. Watch 690 extends coverage further. Radar and local storm reports earlier today verified hail to 1.5 inches and 60 mph gusts near Prescott, Hawkins, Iron Springs, and other locations in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Tornado warnings were issued in northern Arizona (first tornado watch products for the state in roughly 16 years). Convection is shifting eastward across Arizona into southwest New Mexico into early Thursday.

    WPC Day 1 carries a Slight risk of excessive rainfall over southern California (focused on the Transverse Ranges, burn scars, and urban corridors north and northeast of Los Angeles) and the broader Southwest/Four Corners, including much of Arizona, southern Utah, and adjacent areas. Persistent southerly flow is advecting anomalous moisture; HREF probabilities for additional >1 inch rainfall remain high (>70%) through 12Z. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible, with higher amounts in terrain. Flash Flood Warnings have been issued in parts of Coconino County and southern Utah (including near Zion and Bryce areas). Residual Flood Watches cover higher terrain and burn scars. No Moderate or higher ERO is in effect on Day 1.

    Tropical lane remains closed for the United States. Subtropical Storm Josephine is accelerating northeast away from the East Coast with no coastal watches or warnings. Residual high surf and coastal flood products may continue along portions of the East Coast from the parent system, but these do not open a tropical lane for this desk. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in parts of Alaska; these are outside the primary severe/flood focus.

    Just-Hit

    Preliminary local storm reports and media accounts document golf-ball-sized hail, shattered windows, dented vehicles, and downed trees across northern and central Arizona, including Flagstaff and Mesa areas. Strong winds toppled trees in the Coconino National Forest. Multiple tornado warnings and the first tornado watch for northern Arizona since 2010 verified earlier in the day. Flash Flood Warnings are active or recent over parts of Coconino County, southern Utah (including Zion National Park vicinity with reported muddy flows), and higher terrain/burn scars. No widespread major flooding has been reported as of this update, but the setup supports rapid runoff and urban/terrain flash flooding overnight. Primary ongoing restoration ticket is hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, and vegetation in the Phoenix metro and high country, with secondary flash-flood concerns in sensitive terrain.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 22 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneSubtropical Storm Josephine ~37.7N 69.4W, 65 mph, moving NNE away. No U.S. watches/warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. Hub live.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 22): Slight over much of AZ into far SE NV/SW UT for large hail (primary), couple tornadoes, damaging winds. Marginal coastal CA. SVR TSTM Watches 689 & 690 active. LSRs of large hail and wind verified.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1: Slight over southern CA and Southwest (AZ, S UT, SW CO, W NM). High probs for additional heavy rain. FFWs recent in Coconino AZ and S UT. No Moderate+.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    What This Means

    The restoration ticket is driven by the Arizona Slight risk severe weather, with supporting flash-flood potential across the Southwest. Organized supercells continue into the evening and overnight with primary hazards of large hail and damaging winds, plus a couple of tornadoes possible. Phoenix metro and central Arizona remain in the threat area under active watches. Southern California sees a marginal severe threat from the approaching Pacific cyclone plus a Slight excessive rainfall risk focused on coastal ranges and urban areas. Named storm hub for Josephine is live even though no U.S. coastal threat. Monitor official sources for the latest warnings and local impacts.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

    As of this Tuesday afternoon desk, October 20, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 21), the national picture holds as a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 continues with no severe thunderstorm areas forecast through tonight. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-20-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No categorical severe risk remains open. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has fully closed for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific. AL93 remains a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast with a medium (40%) chance of briefly acquiring subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it moves north-northeast over the Gulf Stream. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf continue along portions of the East Coast.
    • Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 maintains an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona, plus portions of New Mexico, Colorado, and California starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
    • Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. Quiet Pulse holds on Day 1.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 21) lists no severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no severe threat is forecast. No watches are valid.

    The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida (St. Johns River near Astor, moderate stage) and Georgia (Satilla River at Atkinson). Coastal and marine products, including Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings offshore the mid-Atlantic, persist with the non-tropical low. Flood Watches for Wednesday cover portions of the Southwest and California ahead of the next system. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in interior Alaska.

    Hotspots

    • Southwest / Arizona corridor (looking ahead): Flood Watches already issued for central and eastern Arizona, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico starting Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk targets portions of Arizona for large hail and isolated tornadoes. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners.
    • East Coast coastal / marine: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) offshore the mid-Atlantic continues to drive high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf. Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are in effect for offshore waters. No tropical development is imminent for U.S. land.
    • Residual river and Alaska winter: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns (FL) and Satilla (GA). Winter Storm Warnings remain active across portions of interior Alaska (Eastern Alaska Range, Fortymile Country, Yukon Flats) with heavy snow totals of 5–36 inches depending on elevation.

    Just-Hit

    No significant local storm reports of severe weather (hail ≥1 inch, damaging wind, tornado) or widespread flash flooding on Day 1. Prior Marginal activity over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has ended with loss of heating. Residual river stages and coastal products only.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 21 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. NHC: no tropical cyclones Atlantic/EPAC/CPAC. AL93 non-tropical low off mid-Atlantic (40% subtropical chance next few days). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
    SevereQuietSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 21): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. No watches or MDs valid. Isolated thunder possible Southwest and Plains overnight, no severe threat.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL, Satilla Atkinson GA). Flood Watches issued for Southwest/CA starting Wednesday. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest.

    Rising Queries

    “Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona and Southwest Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Broader weather forecast queries remain elevated with the approaching Day 2 risk.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. Residual river flooding in Florida and Georgia is the primary ongoing water concern. Coastal flooding and high surf along the East Coast will continue with the offshore low. Wednesday brings the first above-Quiet window over Arizona and the Southwest—monitor Flood Watches and the Day 2 Enhanced Risk closely. Turn around, don’t drown on any residual flooded roads.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. The Enhanced severe and Slight flood risks for Wednesday remain outside the current Day 1 window.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Wednesday holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona (large hail, isolated tornado potential) on the SPC Day 2 outlook. WPC Day 2 carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona and adjacent areas starting Wednesday. The East Coast offshore low continues to influence winds, surf, and coastal flooding as it moves northeast. No named tropical threat to the U.S. coast is indicated.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always consult official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for decisions.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 20 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:51 PM CDT Tuesday, October 20, 2026, valid 210100Z–211200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. The prior Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has fully closed. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West, and overnight along a low-level moisture axis over the southern and central Great Plains, but no categorical severe risk and no watches.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0028 UTC Wednesday October 21 / ~8:28 PM EDT Tuesday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 21) confirms the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The prior Marginal Risk over the Southwest has ended for Day 1. No Moderate or higher.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, or Central Pacific as of the 800 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. AL93 (non-tropical low off the mid-Atlantic coast) continues with a medium (40%) chance of subtropical development, but remains offshore with no U.S. watches or warnings. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
    • Looking ahead (not Day 1): SPC Day 2 holds an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona for Wednesday, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential. WPC Day 2 has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday. This remains outside the current Day 1 window.
    • Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane for today. The national picture remains Quiet Pulse for the morning desk.

    Live Status

    As of this Tuesday morning desk update, October 20, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 21 / 0412Z October 21), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds no severe thunderstorm areas through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may continue this evening into tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West under modest instability, but any severe risk is expected to remain limited and isolated. No convective watches are in effect.

    The flood lane is Quiet on Day 1. WPC shows less than 5 percent probability of excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in Florida and Georgia (including moderate stage on the St. Johns near Astor), and winter storm products remain active in Alaska, but these do not meet Moderate or higher excessive rainfall criteria. Coastal and marine products persist along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low, but these are not inland flash-flood events.

    No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins have no tropical cyclones. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings.

    Hotspots

    Desert Southwest / Intermountain West: Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening into tonight. Transient organization possible earlier, but overall severe threat remains limited. No categorical risk or watches. The higher-end threat arrives Wednesday.

    Looking ahead — Arizona and Southwest: SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of Arizona, including large hail and tornado potential, especially higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches already issued for much of central and eastern Arizona starting Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. This is the dominant upcoming peril.

    Alaska: Multiple Winter Storm Warnings continue for heavy snow, with significant accumulations at higher elevations and travel impacts possible. Outside CONUS focus.

    Just-Hit

    Overnight and early Tuesday activity was limited. Prior Marginal Risk reports from Monday evening (isolated 1.25-inch hail and wind damage in SE AZ/SW NM) have closed with the risk area. No widespread severe or flash-flood reports noted for the current Day 1 period.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT / 0412Z 21 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. No tropical cyclones in Atlantic, East Pac, or Central Pac. AL93 offshore non-tropical low (40% subtropical chance). No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
    SevereQuietSPC Day 1: No Severe Thunderstorm Areas. Isolated storms possible Desert Southwest but limited threat. No watches. Day 2 Enhanced Risk AZ for Wednesday.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1: probability <5%. Residual river Flood Warnings FL/GA. Day 2 Slight Risk Southwest. Flood Watches already out for AZ starting Wednesday.

    Rising Queries

    “Flood watch” is rising in U.S. Trends, driven by the Arizona Flood Watches issued ahead of Wednesday’s system. Related searches include Arizona weather, severe storms Arizona, and Phoenix flood watch. Trends for the broader severe risk are building but not yet dominant nationally.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse for today. No open Slight or higher severe or Moderate or higher flood lanes on Day 1. The isolated activity possible in the Southwest this evening is expected to remain limited. Standard quiet-day posture applies. Looking ahead one day, the Enhanced severe risk and Slight excessive rainfall risk over Arizona on Wednesday, combined with already-issued Flood Watches, represent the first material increase in restoration potential this week. Monitor local NWS offices (Phoenix, Flagstaff) and SPC/WPC updates. No widespread event is underway today.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on Day 1, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Wednesday brings an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Arizona, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential, especially over higher terrain and interior areas. WPC Day 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall covers the Southwest and Four Corners. Flood Watches are already in effect for much of central and eastern Arizona. This is the dominant near-term concern. No tropical development expected for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Sources

    • Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon
    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
    • SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
    • WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?day=2
    • NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
    • NWS watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

    Informational only — not an official warning. This desk is compiled from official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for situational awareness only. Always verify the latest local forecasts and warnings at weather.gov before making decisions. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-morning pulse table: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:52 PM CDT Monday, October 19, 2026, valid 200100Z–201200Z) holds the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible this evening under 1000–1500 J/kg SBCAPE and ~40 kt shear. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches issued.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 20, 2026 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 20) confirms a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest (southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico). Hourly rates of 0.5–1 inch possible in stronger cells, mainly urban and terrain-sensitive areas. Matches the morning desk; no Moderate or higher.
    • SPC today’s local storm reports (as of the 1200 UTC–1159 UTC page) include 1.25-inch hail 18 N Pirtleville, Cochise County, AZ (2157 UTC), 1.25-inch hail 1 W Deming, Luna County, NM (0010 UTC), downed power lines 5 N Rodeo, Hidalgo County, NM (2235 UTC), and a 77 mph gust 3 NNE Rodeo (2240 UTC). Isolated activity has verified in the Marginal area.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook continues to monitor AL93, a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the southeast coast, with low near-term chance of subtropical development. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf persist along portions of the East Coast. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy remains offshore Mexico only and does not threaten the United States. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
    • Nothing material has moved to open a Slight or higher severe lane or Moderate or higher flood lane. The Marginal severe window is expected to close with loss of heating overnight.

    Live Status

    As of this Monday afternoon desk update, October 19, 2026 (approximately 8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z October 20), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The only open severe lane is the small Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms have produced isolated large hail and strong wind gusts this evening. Activity is expected to weaken overnight. No Slight Risk, no watches.

    Flood lane carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the same Southwest corridor. Isolated flash flooding is possible this evening in urban areas, burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes, but coverage is limited. Residual river Flood Warnings continue, including moderate stage on the St. Johns River near Astor, Florida. Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and marine Storm/Gale products remain active along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low. These are coastal and marine, not inland flash-flood events of Moderate or higher intensity.

    No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones. AL93 may briefly acquire subtropical characteristics later this week but is expected to move northeastward away from the coast. Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is offshore Mexico only.

    Hotspots

    Southeast Arizona / Southwest New Mexico: Marginal severe and excessive rainfall risk this evening. Isolated 1.25-inch hail and wind damage (downed lines, 77 mph gust) already reported. Cells moving quickly enough to limit widespread flooding but capable of localized issues on burn scars and in urban/terrain areas.

    East Coast coastal waters and shoreline: Storm-force non-tropical low (AL93) driving high winds, very rough seas, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Marine Storm and Gale Warnings in effect. Not an inland severe or flash-flood event.

    Alaska: Multiple Winter Storm Warnings for heavy snow (5–10 inches in valleys, up to 24–36 inches at higher elevations in the Eastern Alaska Range) with gusty winds. Travel impacts possible through mid-week. Outside the CONUS focus but active.

    Just-Hit

    SPC local storm reports for the current period document 1.25-inch hail near Pirtleville, AZ, and Deming, NM, plus wind damage and a 77 mph gust near Rodeo, NM, all within the Marginal Risk area this evening. No tornado reports. No widespread flash-flood reports noted beyond residual river stages.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM EDT / 0314Z 20 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. AL93 non-tropical low off SE coast (low near-term subtropical chance). Pacific TS Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Arizona / SW New Mexico. Isolated hail (1.25″) and wind (77 mph gust, downed lines) reported. No watches. Activity expected to weaken soon.
    FloodMarginalWPC Day 1 Marginal Risk portions of Southwest (SE AZ/SW NM). Isolated flash flooding possible in urban/terrain areas. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL). Coastal/marine products East Coast. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse overall. The isolated Marginal severe and excessive rainfall potential in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico has produced localized hail and wind reports this evening, with possible limited claims, but coverage is small, no watches support a broader response, and the window is closing overnight. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion along the East Coast warrant monitoring for overwash and access issues, but these are not inland restoration events. Residual river flooding remains minor and stable. Standard quiet-day posture applies. No widespread severe or higher-end flash flood event is underway. Looking ahead, Pacific moisture is expected to increase flood and isolated severe potential over the Southwest mid-week.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Tuesday holds no widespread severe threat on current guidance. The Marginal Risk area in the Southwest is expected to diminish overnight. The non-tropical low continues to influence East Coast winds, surf, and coastal flooding into mid-week. No near-term tropical development expected for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Moisture from the Pacific system may begin increasing rain chances later in the week.

    Sources

    • Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-morning
    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
    • SPC Local Storm Reports: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
    • NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
    • NWS watches/warnings: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all

    Informational only — not an official warning. This desk is compiled from official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for situational awareness only. Always verify the latest local forecasts and warnings at weather.gov before making decisions. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 19 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 19 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-19-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100Z / 7:52 PM CDT Monday, October 19, 2026, valid 200100Z–201200Z) continues the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible this evening with a small cluster of storms under 1000–1500 J/kg SBCAPE and ~40 kt shear. No upgrade to Slight or higher. No convective watches issued. Activity expected to weaken with loss of heating overnight.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 20, 2026 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 20) now carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest (southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico). Hourly rates to 0.5–1 inch possible in stronger cells, mainly urban and terrain-sensitive areas. Previously noted probability less than 5 percent on the afternoon desk. No Moderate or higher.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. NHC continues to monitor AL93, a storm-force non-tropical low a few hundred miles off the southeast coast, with low (20%) chance of subtropical development in 48 hours and medium (40%) in 7 days. High winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf persist along portions of the East Coast. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy remains offshore Mexico only. Nothing material moved on the tropical lane.
    • Mesoscale Discussion 2383 (issued ~3 PM CDT) noted watch unlikely; no Mesoscale Discussions currently in effect. No overnight local storm reports of widespread severe or flash flooding outside residual coastal and river concerns. The Marginal severe window is closing.

    Live Status

    As of this Monday evening update to the morning desk, October 19, 2026 (approximately 8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z October 20), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The only open severe lane is the small Marginal Risk over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, where scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated hail to around 1.25 inches and gusty winds for a short time longer this evening before weakening. No Slight Risk, no watches.

    Flood lane has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the same Southwest corridor on the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Isolated flash flooding is possible this evening in urban areas, burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes where cells train, but coverage remains limited and no Moderate or higher risk is indicated. Residual river Flood Warnings continue in places such as the St. Johns River near Astor, Florida (moderate stage). Coastal Flood Warnings, High Surf Advisories, and marine Storm/Gale products remain active along portions of the East Coast in association with the offshore non-tropical low. These are coastal and marine, not inland flash-flood events of Moderate or higher intensity.

    No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones. AL93 may briefly acquire subtropical characteristics later this week but is expected to move northeastward away from the coast. Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is a couple hundred miles west of west-central Mexico and does not threaten the United States.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM EDT / 0312Z 20 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. AL93 non-tropical low off SE coast (20%/40% subtropical chance). Pacific TS Trudy offshore Mexico only. No U.S. tropical watches/warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk SE Arizona / SW New Mexico. Isolated hail and wind possible this evening. No watches. Activity expected to weaken soon. MD 2383 watch unlikely; none currently in effect.
    FloodMarginalWPC Day 1 Marginal Risk portions of Southwest (SE AZ/SW NM). Isolated flash flooding possible in urban/terrain areas. Residual river Flood Warnings (St. Johns near Astor FL). Coastal/marine products East Coast. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse overall. The isolated Marginal severe and excessive rainfall potential in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico may produce localized hail, wind, or flash-flood claims this evening, but coverage is limited, no watches support a broader response, and the window is closing with nighttime cooling. Coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion along the East Coast (particularly Outer Banks into the Mid-Atlantic) warrant monitoring for overwash and access issues, but these are not inland restoration events. Residual river flooding remains minor and stable. Standard quiet-day posture applies. No widespread severe or higher-end flash flood event is underway. Looking ahead, moisture from Pacific Tropical Storm Trudy is expected to increase flood and isolated severe potential over the Southwest mid-week.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk, no WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall, and no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Informational only — not an official warning. This desk is compiled from official NWS, SPC, WPC, and NHC products for situational awareness only. Always verify the latest local forecasts and warnings at weather.gov before making decisions. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • SPC 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0746 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121300Z–131200Z) remains NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: no severe weather forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. No change from the morning desk. No convective watches valid. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC Oct 12 onward) show zero tornado, hail, or wind reports.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC / 3:48 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 12Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel continues the threat into this afternoon and evening before the pattern shifts east. No change in category from morning.
    • Flash Flood Warnings for the Paria River corridor (Coconino County, AZ / south-central Kane County, UT) remain in effect this morning. NWS Flagstaff and Salt Lake City report a confirmed flood wave (gauge rise ~3 feet, flow to 2200 CFS). Life-threatening flash flooding of slot canyons, dry washes, and the Colorado River confluence near Lees Ferry. Warnings expire late morning (around 11 AM MDT / 10 AM PDT). Flood Watches continue for western/northern AZ and much of Utah through this afternoon.
    • Winter Storm Warnings for elevated terrain in central and north-central Montana have expired. No new organized severe windows. Mid-Atlantic residual closed overnight remains closed.

    Live Status

    As of Monday afternoon, October 12, 2026 (~9:30 AM PDT / 12:30 PM EDT), the national desk stays in Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. The organized severe window from Isaias remnants closed overnight and has not reopened.

    WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture under the deep western trough supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate the flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover the Paria River flood wave this morning; the highest residual risk remains over western AZ terrain and southern UT canyons.

    No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence, tracked solely by WPC as a flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.

    Hotspots

    Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible this afternoon into evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual western AZ terrain.

    Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — Active Flash Flood Warnings this morning for the confirmed flood wave. Slot canyons, dry washes, Lees Ferry confluence. Window closing late morning; Flood Watches continue broader area through afternoon.

    Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible Dakotas into Upper Midwest (small hail possible with strongest) and Intermountain West, but no severe threat. Montana winter warnings expired.

    Just Hit

    No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window (1200 UTC onward). The organized severe work from Sunday (NC tornadoes) is closed and under survey. The live work this morning is the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture.

    Pulse Table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this afternoon
    Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoffWPC Slight ERO; FFWs Paria this morningResidual live from Rachel; threat into afternoon/evening then shifts east
    Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)Life-threatening flash flood, slot canyons, Lees FerryActive FFWs (gauge confirmed)Live this morning; expires late morning; watches broader through afternoon
    Mid-Atlantic residualNoneSPC none; WPC noneClosed overnight; remains closed
    Montana elevated terrainHeavy snow (expired)Winter Storm Warning expiredClosed; additional snow ended early morning
    CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlookNoneSPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs todayQuiet

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, monitor the Paria corridor and broader Flood Watch areas for slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff through this afternoon. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county, watch the FFWs expire, and stay ready for the residual flood window before it shifts east overnight.

    What This Is Not

    Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks show the western trough shifting east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. Isolated elevated storms possible further east Tuesday, but no severe areas currently indicated for tomorrow. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

    Rising Queries

    Residual interest: hurricane tropical storm, power outage near me (Isaias residual), Rachel remnants / Southwest flood. Trends partially reachable; residual from the recent systems, not a new hotspot spike.

    Storm Hubs

    Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

    Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

    Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings, including Paria FFWs), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.