As of this Thursday afternoon desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 6:18 PM PDT / 9:18 PM EDT / 0118Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest. The Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across Arizona, western New Mexico and the Four Corners. Subtropical Storm Josephine has transitioned to post-tropical and is moving away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.
Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate
What Changed
- Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 2000 UTC / 2:55 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 222000Z–231200Z, issued 0255 PM CDT) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms across Arizona/western New Mexico and the Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible. Convective coverage has increased across eastern/northeastern Arizona with supercell structures noted. No upgrade beyond Slight.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated ~0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 844 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico (expanded southward into NW NM). This is an upgrade from the prior Slight Risk that covered broader Southwest areas. Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible in the Moderate area; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Slight Risk surrounds it.
- NHC Advisory 5 (5 PM AST) confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning remains in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific activity remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. threat.
- Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch are in effect across portions of Arizona (including Flagstaff and Phoenix offices). Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect for parts of Apache County, Arizona (Canyon de Chelly area) and other sensitive drainages. Flood Watches continue for the Four Corners region.
- Nothing material closed either the severe or flood lane. The Moderate flood risk is the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. Previous morning desk for October 22 not located under the standard slug; this afternoon desk links the October 21 afternoon under Sources.
Live Status
SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 22) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of Arizona into western New Mexico and the Four Corners, including population centers such as Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Flagstaff and extending into southern Utah and southwest Colorado. Supercells remain the favored mode with strong deep-layer shear (40–60+ kt) and sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE 500–1500 J/kg). Primary hazards are large hail (isolated 2+ inches), damaging winds and a few tornadoes, maximized across eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico where low-level shear and topography align. Marginal Risk extends into portions of the Great Basin and a minor eastward expansion near the CO/NM border.
WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Antecedent rainfall, upslope flow, and training convection support high confidence in flash flooding. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible; 24-hour totals of 3–5 inches in favored terrain. A broader Slight Risk covers additional portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.
Hotspots
Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Flash Flood Warnings already verified in parts of Arizona that feed into the region. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted in some southern Utah locations earlier.
Eastern and central Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk with active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Supercells producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level easterly components interact with terrain. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain in the risk area. Flash flooding accompanies the convection.
Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.
Just-Hit
National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings are active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. No widespread major river flooding reported, but rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~6:18 PM PDT / 0118Z 23 Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | Josephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. |
| Severe | Slight | SPC Day 1 (2000Z Oct 22): Slight across AZ/western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, few tornadoes. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Watch in AZ. Marginal elsewhere. |
| Flood | Moderate | WPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern. |
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
Restoration Read
Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.
What This Is Not
This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains scattered.
Looking Ahead One Day
Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains some residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.
Sources
- SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC October 22, 2026): spc.noaa.gov
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
- NWS watches/warnings: weather.gov
- NHC Josephine post-tropical: nhc.noaa.gov
- Previous desk: Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21
Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.









