Storm Updates: High Plains Severe — Nov 01 Morning

As of the morning desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 8:15 PM PST / 04:15 UTC November 2), the national picture has both severe and flood lanes open. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0641 PM CST November 1, valid 020100Z–021200Z) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.” The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z November 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2) places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

• Compared with the earlier morning desk pulse table (this slug, prior version ~6:14 PM PST): SPC Day 1 has been updated to the 0100 UTC November 2 cycle. Slight Risk remains in place across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Thunderstorms have developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and are expected to organize into a line moving east-northeast into the Panhandles this evening into overnight, with severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 remains in effect until 0400 UTC November 2 for portions of New Mexico.
• WPC Day 1 ERO continues a Moderate Risk, now valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2, covering ~64,000 square miles and ~3.7 million people. Flood Watches and multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active across Arizona, New Mexico, and surrounding areas on saturated soils.
• Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook confirms tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No named cyclone threatens or has just hit the U.S. coast or Gulf.
• NWS products show ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in central New Mexico (including Albuquerque metro), Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona (Paria River, Tucson area, Graham/Greenlee), High Wind Warnings in New Mexico and Texas, and Tornado Watches noted in local reports for parts of the South Plains/Texas Panhandle.
• No major shift in overall risk levels since the prior update this morning, but the severe threat is now actively unfolding with storms moving into the Slight Risk area. Dominant restoration ticket remains the Moderate excessive rainfall and flash flooding on saturated soils across the Southwest, compounded by the active severe wind/tornado threat in New Mexico and the Panhandles.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 2, 2026 / 0641 PM CST November 1) lists a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (area ~61,900 sq mi, population ~673,000). Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains. Ahead of a lead shortwave, storms have developed in north-central New Mexico and will move east-northeast with potential for severe wind gusts. Further east, a band of strong storms is expected over central New Mexico, organizing into a line moving into the Texas Panhandle. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Supercells possible within the line; Amarillo VWP shows 0-3 km SRH near 350 m²/s², supporting tornado potential (see MCD 2424). Threat persists into overnight into northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas with isolated severe gusts.

WPC Day 1 ERO (valid 0100Z Mon Nov 02 through 1200Z Mon Nov 02, issued 0027Z) places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (at least 40% probability) covering 64,281 square miles and 3,656,961 people. Slight Risk covers larger areas. Primary focus remains the Southwest/Four Corners on already saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in Arizona, including extensions for the Paria River and Tucson metro areas. Flood Watches remain widespread across Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and parts of California, Nevada, and Florida.

Hotspots

• Southwest / Four Corners and Southern High Plains (AZ, NM, TX Panhandle, OK Panhandle): Primary focus under WPC Moderate Risk and SPC Slight Risk. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for New Mexico until 0400 UTC. Line of storms developing across central/eastern NM moving into the Panhandles overnight, with damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and line-embedded tornadoes possible. Flash Flood Warnings active in northern and southeastern Arizona (Paria River/Lees Ferry, Tucson metro including Pima/Santa Cruz, Graham/Greenlee). Flood Watches cover much of the region. Expect efficient runoff on saturated soils leading to flash flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars. Heavy rain rates up to 2 inches per hour possible in stronger cells.
• East coast of Florida: Residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Flood Watch in effect for parts of the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday. Soils sensitive from multi-day rainfall. No organized severe threat.
• Scattered local alerts: High Wind Warning for Sacramento Mountains and other areas in New Mexico/Texas (gusts 65+ mph). Winter Storm Warnings in portions of Colorado and Nevada. Beach Hazards Statements on California coast.

Just-Hit

Heavy rainfall from the atmospheric river continued into Sunday afternoon and evening, producing and extending Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona, including rapid rises on the Paria River and persistent threats in the Tucson area on saturated soils. Severe thunderstorms developed in central New Mexico by late afternoon, prompting Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with 60 mph wind gusts indicated. No widespread tornado reports logged yet as of the 0100 UTC outlook, but the threat is increasing as the line organizes and moves east into better moisture and shear.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Moderate flood lane remains the primary driver on already saturated soils across the Southwest. Expect flash flooding of washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban areas, and burn scars, with potential for considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim and surrounding terrain. Active severe threat in New Mexico and the High Plains brings risk of damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and a few tornadoes with the evening/overnight line of storms, plus ongoing severe thunderstorm warnings. Florida residual flash flood risk under Slight ERO. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, roof/siding/tree damage from winds, and residual coastal flooding. Turn around, don’t drown. No tropical component.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and WPC Moderate Risk are both open. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

Looking Ahead One Day

Monday: SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Slight Risk shifting eastward across North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Missouri for late Monday afternoon into evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. WPC Day 2 holds residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of Florida. Southwest flood threat begins to wind down as the plume moves through, but residual runoff on saturated soils continues into Monday. No tropical development expected.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

• SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 2 2026 / 0641 PM CST Nov 1): spc.noaa.gov
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z Nov 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z Nov 2): wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• SPC Current Watches (Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699): spc.noaa.gov
• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook: nhc.noaa.gov
• NWS Watches, Warnings & Advisories: weather.gov
• Prior desk on this slug: updated in place from earlier November 1 morning version.

Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location.