Tag: Texas

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 09

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 09

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-09-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight): Latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 10 / 0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026 by Mead, valid 100100Z–101200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. No material change. Pacific Northwest shortwave supports sporadic lightning with MUCAPE a few hundred J/kg; a few strong gusts possible but severe not expected. Deep South Texas to middle Texas Coast: elevated thunderstorms possible on marginal instability; most vigorous convection offshore SE of Brownsville. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero significant LSRs elevating the severe lane.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1602 UTC / ~11:02 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2026 by Miller, valid 16Z Nov 09–12Z Nov 10) maintains a Slight Risk across portions of far southeastern Texas. Additional rain on highly saturated soils (prior 4–10 inches near Kingsville/lower RGV; SPoRT soil moisture >95th percentile) supports isolated to scattered flash flood threat into early afternoon, waning later as pattern degrades. No Moderate or higher.
    • NWS products show residual Flood Warnings in South Texas, Florida (Peace River), and Arizona; Blizzard Warning in Alaska (Thompson Pass); routine frost/freeze/marine advisories. Prior Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watch for South Texas have expired. None elevate national lanes above Quiet Pulse thresholds.
    • Tropical remains None. NHC: no tropical cyclones in Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. TS Pena (Central Pacific) no mainland threat.
    • Quiet Pulse criteria continue to hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Nothing material moved from the morning pulse table.

    Live Status

    As of the afternoon desk on Monday, November 9, 2026 (approximately 9:18 PM PST / 05:18 UTC November 10), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC) states no severe thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight.

    Residual heavy rain and flash flood potential is confined to far southeastern Texas under a WPC Slight Risk on already saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. The threat is expected to wane by late evening. Pacific Northwest sees possible sporadic lightning with the shortwave passage but low severe potential. No tropical threats.

    Hotspots

    Far southeastern Texas / Coastal Bend: WPC Slight Risk residual excessive rainfall on saturated soils (prior 4–10 inches near Kingsville and lower RGV). Active Flood Watch and Flash Flood Warnings have expired. Isolated to scattered flash flood threat continues into early afternoon before waning. Monitor low-water crossings and urban drainage.

    South-central Texas residual: Elevated showers diminishing under the upper low. Additional light-to-moderate rain on wet ground. No severe probabilities.

    Pacific Northwest coastal: Fast-moving shortwave may produce occasional lightning with shallow convection. Limited instability keeps severe risk low. No SPC categorical risk.

    Just Hit

    Prior rounds of heavy rain across South Texas produced 4–10 inches in spots, saturating soils and prompting Flood Watches and Flash Flood Warnings that have since expired. SPC storm reports show zero tornado, hail, or wind reports elevating the severe lane. No organized severe outbreak.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:18 PM PST Nov 9 / 05:18 UTC Nov 10 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. TS Pena (CPAC) no U.S. mainland or Gulf threat. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 10): No severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Elevated storms in south TX diminishing; possible lightning PNW with low severe potential. No watches or MDs valid. Zero significant LSRs.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk far southeastern Texas. Residual convection on saturated soils from prior 4–10+ inches. Isolated-scattered flash flood threat into early afternoon; waning later. Residual Flood Warnings in FL/AZ. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with residual flood lane. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in far southeastern Texas under the Slight Risk on already saturated soils. Additional rainfall prolongs localized water issues before the threat wanes. No organized severe damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall on Day 1. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    The residual Texas flood threat is expected to wane by late evening as the pattern degrades. Pacific Northwest shortwave passage with possible lightning but low severe potential. No significant severe or tropical threats indicated for Tuesday on current products.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always check weather.gov and local forecasts for the latest information. Not a substitute for official warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 09 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 09 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-09-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight): Latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 10 / 0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026 by Mead, valid 100100Z–101200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. Pacific Northwest shortwave supports sporadic lightning with MUCAPE a few hundred J/kg; a few strong gusts possible but severe not expected. Deep South Texas to middle Texas Coast: elevated thunderstorms possible on marginal instability; most vigorous convection offshore SE of Brownsville. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero significant LSRs elevating the severe lane.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1602 UTC / ~11:02 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2026 by Miller, valid 16Z Nov 09–12Z Nov 10) maintains a Slight Risk across portions of far southeastern Texas. Additional rain on highly saturated soils (prior 4–10 inches near Kingsville/lower RGV; SPoRT soil moisture >95th percentile) supports isolated to scattered flash flood threat into early afternoon, waning later as pattern degrades. No Moderate or higher.
    • NWS products: Residual Flood Warnings and Advisories in South Texas on saturated ground (including areas near Corpus Christi and lower Rio Grande Valley). Ongoing Flood Warnings in Florida (St. Johns/Peace River systems) and Arizona. Blizzard Warning continues for Thompson Pass, AK (heavy snow, gusts to 45 mph, visibility to 1/4 mile). Routine winter, freeze, frost, and marine products (Arctic gales, freezing spray) elsewhere. None elevate national lanes above Quiet Pulse thresholds.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. Formation not expected during the next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. Tropical Storm Pena remains in the Central Pacific (well south of Hawaii) with no threat to the mainland U.S. or Gulf.
    • Quiet Pulse criteria continue to hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Nothing material moved from the afternoon pulse table.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk update on Monday, November 9, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PST / 05:16 UTC November 10), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 10) states: “NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.” Residual heavy rain and flash flood potential is confined to far southeastern Texas under a WPC Slight Risk on already saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. National Weather Service products include residual flood products in South Texas, Florida, and Arizona, a Blizzard Warning in Alaska, and routine winter/freeze/marine advisories. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above Quiet Pulse thresholds. The active restoration ticket is residual water on saturated ground in South Texas, not organized severe weather or tropical impact. SPC storm reports show no tornado, hail, or wind reports elevating the severe lane for the day.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:16 PM PST Nov 9 / 05:16 UTC Nov 10 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. TS Pena (CPAC) no U.S. mainland or Gulf threat. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 10): No severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Sporadic lightning possible PNW; elevated storms possible south TX. No watches valid. No significant LSRs.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk far southeastern Texas. Residual convection on saturated soils from prior heavy rain. Isolated-scattered flash flood threat into early afternoon; waning later. Residual Flood Warnings in TX/FL/AZ. No Moderate or higher.

    Rising queries

    Trends unreachable.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. WPC holds only a Slight Risk residual flood threat in far southeastern Texas. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are active on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 08 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Nov 08 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the prior version of this morning desk (published ~11:17 PM PST November 7: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 9 / 6:50 PM CST Sunday November 8 2026 by Mead, valid 090100Z–091200Z) holds NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Prior Marginal Risk areas over northwest Washington and earlier South Texas have closed. Isolated strong storms with gusty winds remain possible overnight in South Texas, but severe potential is negligible. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC November 9 / discussion 7:57 PM EST November 8 by Bann, valid 01Z Nov 09–12Z Nov 09) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across South-Central and South Texas. Heaviest rates largely shifted offshore in far South Texas, but Slight held along and near the coast and over the Edwards Plateau given prior accumulations (up to 3.5+ inches in places) and residual flooding potential. No Moderate or higher.
    • NWS has an active Flash Flood Warning (extended) for Edwards, northwestern Kinney, and northeastern Val Verde counties in south-central Texas until midnight CST Sunday, with reported flooded/closed roads (including near US 377, SH 55, CR 450), a water rescue, and 2–5 inches already fallen. Additional rainfall up to 1 inch possible. High Wind Warnings for the Northern Washington Coast and Grays Harbor County Coast have expired.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (700 PM EST November 8) confirms tropical cyclone formation not expected during the next 7 days. No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. Tropical Storm Pena remains in the Central Pacific with no threat to the mainland U.S. or Gulf.
    • Quiet Pulse criteria continue to hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk update on Sunday, November 8, 2026 (evening confirmation approximately 9:17 PM PST / 05:17 UTC November 9), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook states there are no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. An upper low over southwest Chihuahua will progress toward the Texas Big Bend overnight. Modest height falls, low/midlevel warm advection, and MUCAPE of 500–1000 J/kg will yield an increase in thunderstorm coverage across South Texas overnight. While no severe weather is expected, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is possible. Elsewhere, showers over southwest Ontario may support sporadic lightning over far western New York and the Tug Hill region, but convection remains too shallow for organized severe. No watches or mesoscale discussions currently valid. Homepage confirms Day 1 No Severe; Day 2 and Day 3 No Severe.

    WPC Day 1 ERO confirms a Slight Risk across South-Central and South Texas. Present indications show highest rates remaining offshore through the remainder of the night, with Slight maintained along and near the coast given the chance for westward/inland propagation. Farther north, diffluent southerly flow continues to support areas of rainfall in and near the Edwards Plateau. Rainfall rates have tapered, but the Slight risk area was largely maintained given overlap with places that received as much as 3.5 inches in the past 24 hours and where flooding had already been reported. No Moderate risk. Active Flash Flood Warning covers portions of Edwards, Kinney, and Val Verde counties with ongoing impacts. NWS national products include residual flood watches or advisories in Texas and routine freeze, high wind, and other products elsewhere. None elevate the national severe or flood lanes above the current Quiet Pulse thresholds.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:17 PM PST Nov 8 / 05:17 UTC Nov 9 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. Formation not expected next 7 days. TS Pena (CPAC) no U.S. mainland or Gulf threat. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereNoneSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 9): No severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Prior Marginal risks (NW WA, South TX) closed. Isolated gusty winds possible in South TX overnight, but not severe. No watches or MDs valid.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk across South-Central and South Texas (coast near Brownsville to Corpus, Edwards Plateau). Prior rains up to 3.5+ inches; residual flooding potential. Active FFW in Edwards/Kinney/Val Verde. Highest rates offshore. No Moderate or higher.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Dominant residual ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors and higher terrain across South-Central and South Texas under the WPC Slight Risk. Prior accumulations of 2–5+ inches in places from the Rio Grande Valley toward Corpus Christi and the Edwards Plateau support continued low-end flash flood potential overnight into early Monday, especially where soils are primed. Active Flash Flood Warning confirms reported road closures and at least one water rescue. Secondary residual is any lingering wind damage or power issues from earlier High Wind Warnings on the Pacific Northwest coasts, now expired. No organized widespread catastrophic damage expected. Monitor for debris, water intrusion, and high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Plains Severe — Nov 2

    Storm Updates: Plains Severe — Nov 2

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Enhanced · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 has been updated. Earlier cycles (including 1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) carried an Enhanced Risk across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The latest 0100 UTC November 3 outlook (issued 0700 PM CST November 2 / 0100Z November 3, valid 030100Z–031200Z) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, with QLCS tornado potential and damaging winds. Tornado Watches 701, 702, and 703 remain active covering portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC November 3, discussion 802 PM EST November 2) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of central and southern Florida, focused along the east coast. The prior Moderate Risk over the Four Corners / Southwest has been removed; Plains flash-flood risk was lowered and the Slight removed with this update as storm mode is progressive.
    • Tropical lane remains closed. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A western Atlantic disturbance has a 30 percent chance of subtropical development over the next 7 days but no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Active Tornado Watches 701 (expires 0400 UTC Nov 3), 702 (expires 0500 UTC), and 703 (expires 0900 UTC) plus mesoscale discussions confirm ongoing severe potential with embedded rotating elements and possible gusts above 70 mph. Preliminary LSRs include hail reports near Norman, Moore, and Kingfisher, Oklahoma, and wind gusts to 59–61 mph near Hobart, Oklahoma, and Elkhart, Kansas. No confirmed tornado reports in the latest summary.
    • Nothing material upgraded beyond Slight on the severe or flood lanes. The Enhanced window has closed; the overnight progression into Missouri and Arkansas continues under the Slight.

    Live Status

    As of the afternoon desk on Monday, November 2, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC November 3), the national picture centers on the southern and central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 3 cycle) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.” Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into tonight, with the threat impacting western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight. A line of storms is tracking east-northeast across central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas under 65–70 knots of deep-layer shear and mid-level jet support. Discrete cells near the Red River carry supercell potential. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk across central and southern Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Hotspots

    • Southern and central Plains (Oklahoma, Kansas, northwest Texas): Primary focus under SPC Slight Risk and active Tornado Watches 701–703. Ongoing linear mode with embedded mesovortices capable of QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds to 70+ mph. Further south near the Red River, discrete supercells possible with hail, wind, and tornado risk as the low-level jet ramps up. Expect the severe threat to progress eastward into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.
    • Central and southern Florida: WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, focused along the east coast. Low-level easterly flow and coastal convergence support localized extreme rainfall potential overnight despite decreasing coverage. Residual Flash Flood Warnings noted earlier in Broward and Palm Beach counties.
    • Residual Southwest: Prior Moderate excessive rainfall and Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona (including burn scars and river gauges) have largely wound down. Isolated residual flooding possible on saturated soils, but not the dominant lane today.

    Just-Hit

    Preliminary SPC local storm reports for the current period include hail near Norman, Moore, and Kingfisher, Oklahoma (up to 1.25 inches), and measured wind gusts to 59–61 mph near Hobart, Oklahoma, and Elkhart, Kansas. Tree limbs and a trampoline reported damaged in Rooks County, Kansas. No confirmed tornado reports in the latest filtered summary reviewed. Tornado Watch 701 issued at 1925 UTC November 2; additional watches 702 and 703 issued later. Downstream considerations remain for eastern Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC Nov 3 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30% chance of subtropical development for a western Atlantic disturbance over 7 days; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 3): SLIGHT RISK southern and central Plains (~134k sq mi). Earlier Enhanced over N-central OK / S-central KS closed. Tornado Watches 701, 702, 703 active KS/OK/TX. Ongoing line with QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat. MDs including 2435/2437.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk central and southern Florida (east coast focus). Prior Southwest Moderate closed. Plains Slight removed. Residual FFWs possible in FL and AZ.

    Restoration Read

    Primary short-term ticket is wind and possible tornado damage (roofs, siding, trees, power lines, outbuildings) across central Oklahoma into southern Kansas under the active watches and ongoing line. Secondary is localized flash flooding and urban ponding in central and southern Florida under the Slight ERO. Residual Southwest water extraction possible but lower priority. No named tropical restoration file. Stage for overnight progression into Missouri and Arkansas.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and active Tornado Watches are open. WPC holds Slight, not Moderate or higher. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. Informational only — not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    SPC Day 2 outlook (valid 031200Z–041200Z) holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from east Texas and the Ark-La-Miss to the Mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered storms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes, primarily with embedded line segments and limited buoyancy. WPC Day 2 points to continued localized heavy rain potential. The Plains severe window should diminish overnight into Tuesday as the system progresses east. Monitor for residual flooding on already wet ground.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 3 / 0700 PM CST November 2, Tornado Watches 701–703, Mesoscale Discussions, today’s LSRs), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 802 PM EST November 2), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet, Tropical Weather Outlook 700 PM EST November 2). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Nov 2 Morning

    Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Nov 2 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the November 1 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-01-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate): SPC Day 1 has evolved. Earlier cycles on November 2 carried an Enhanced Risk across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The latest 0100 UTC November 3 outlook (issued 0700 PM CST November 2, valid 030100Z–031200Z) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains.
    • A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, with QLCS-type tornado potential maximized in embedded rotating elements and damaging winds, including possible gusts above 70 mph with bowing segments. Tornado Watch 701 remains in effect for portions of central and southern Kansas, western and central Oklahoma, and northwest Texas.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC November 3) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of central and southern Florida, focused along the east coast. The prior Moderate Risk over the Four Corners / Southwest has been removed; Plains flash-flood risk was lowered as storm mode is progressive.
    • No named tropical cyclones. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A western Atlantic disturbance has a near-zero percent chance of development in 48 hours and 30 percent over 7 days, well offshore, with no U.S. land threat or watches/warnings.
    • Active Tornado Watches and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings live in the Plains corridor. Flash Flood Warnings active in parts of Florida. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for portions of South Dakota and New Mexico.

    Live Status

    As of the morning desk on Monday, November 2, 2026 (updated late evening PST / early November 3 UTC), the national picture centers on the southern and central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 3 cycle) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.” Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into tonight. Severe storms will also affect western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.

    On water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is evident in the southern High Plains with cyclonically curved southwest flow in place over the southern and central Plains. A 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed from southern New Mexico extending northeastward into western Oklahoma. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing to the east of the mid-level jet from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are mostly in the lower to mid 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Strong deep-layer shear of 65 to 70 knots at Oklahoma City supports continued severe potential as the line segment organizes and moves eastward.

    So far across Oklahoma, the dominant storm mode has been linear, and discrete supercell development has failed to materialize. Within the ongoing line, tornado potential is maximized with embedded rotating elements. A few QLCS-type tornadoes still appear possible as this line moves eastward across central/northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas this evening. A wind-damage threat accompanies the line. Further south into southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, cells have been more discrete, with a couple of supercells ongoing near the Red River. Severe wind gusts, hail and potentially a few tornadoes remain possible. In west-central and north-central Texas, a band of strong thunderstorms is developing near a surface trough with MLCAPE 2000 to 2500 J/kg; primary threats are severe wind gusts and hail.

    Tornado Watches remain active covering portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Mesoscale discussions note the ongoing line with potential for embedded intensification. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued, including for Montague County in north central Texas. Overnight local storm reports are expected as the system progresses eastward into Missouri and Arkansas.

    Flood risk has moderated. WPC maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of central and southern Florida, with the main focus along the east coast. Overall coverage and magnitude of heavy rainfall should be lower overnight, though low-level easterly flow and instability continue to support localized extreme rainfall potential on saturated soils. Localized flash flooding is possible overnight from portions of Texas into Iowa, but primarily rate-driven and urban as the convective line is progressive. Flash Flood Warnings remain active in parts of Florida (including Brevard, Indian River, and Broward Counties) and residual in Arizona from earlier activity. High Wind Warnings continue across portions of the South Dakota foothills and southern New Mexico mountains through early Tuesday.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of late evening PST / early Nov 3 UTC 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: near 0% / 30% formation chance for western Atlantic disturbance over 48h / 7 days; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 3): SLIGHT RISK southern and central Plains (~134k sq mi). Earlier Enhanced closed. Tornado Watches active KS/OK/TX. Damaging winds, hail, few QLCS tornadoes possible into tonight. Active warnings.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight residual central/southern FL east coast. Prior Four Corners Moderate removed. Isolated progressive rain risk TX-IA. Active Flash Flood Warnings FL residual AZ. High Wind Warnings SD/NM.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Dominant ticket is severe weather damage across the southern and central Plains under the Slight Risk, with potential for tornadoes (QLCS type), damaging winds to 70+ mph, and hail as the line progresses overnight into Missouri and Arkansas. Secondary is residual flash flooding in Florida and high wind impacts in South Dakota and New Mexico. No widespread catastrophic flooding expected. No named storm hub. Informational only — not an official warning. Follow local NWS offices and official products.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook, NWS watches/warnings, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook, NHC.

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Flood & NM Severe — Nov 1

    Storm Updates: Southwest Flood & NM Severe — Nov 1

    As of the afternoon desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC November 2), the national picture centers on the Southwest. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0641 PM CST November 1, valid 020100Z–021200Z) carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z November 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2) maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners region. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-01-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate): SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 2 cycle) holds the Slight Risk. Storms have developed in north-central New Mexico and are organizing into a line expected to move east-northeast into the Panhandles this evening into overnight, with severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 remains in effect for portions of New Mexico.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO continues the Moderate Risk covering approximately 64,281 square miles and 3.7 million people on already saturated soils. Multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active across Arizona.
    • Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued for portions of central New Mexico, including the Albuquerque metro area. Mesoscale Discussion 2424 addresses severe potential with a watch likely in the High Plains corridor.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones and formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Risk levels unchanged from morning, but the severe threat is now actively unfolding. Dominant restoration ticket remains the Moderate excessive rainfall and flash flooding on saturated soils across the Southwest, compounded by the active severe wind and tornado threat in New Mexico and the Panhandles.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 lists a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (area approximately 61,898 square miles, population approximately 673,000). Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight. Storms have developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and will move east-northeastward. A band of strong storms is expected over central New Mexico, organizing into a line moving into the Texas Panhandle. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Supercells possible within the line; Amarillo VWP shows 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m²/s², supporting tornado potential (see MCD 2424). The threat is expected to persist into the overnight into northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas with isolated severe gusts.

    WPC Day 1 ERO places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall covering 64,281 square miles and 3,656,961 people. A high-end Moderate remains in effect for portions of the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains. An anomalously strong atmospheric river is driving highly anomalous moisture into the Southwest on already saturated soils. Widespread 3-5 inches of rain are expected in core areas, with efficient runoff converting nearly all rainfall to flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars. Flood Watches remain widespread. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in Arizona, including the Paria River in Coconino County (considerable threat) and the Tucson metro area.

    Hotspots

    • Southwest / Four Corners (Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado): Primary focus under WPC Moderate Risk. Saturated soils from multi-week wet period. Active Flash Flood Warnings in northern and southeastern Arizona (Paria River/Lees Ferry with rapid rise reported, Tucson area, Graham and Greenlee counties). Expect life-threatening flash flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban areas, and burn scars. Heavy rain rates capable of producing considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim and San Juans.
    • Southern High Plains / eastern New Mexico into Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles: SPC Slight Risk. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for New Mexico. Line of storms developing across central and eastern New Mexico, moving east-northeast into the Panhandles overnight. Primary threats: damaging wind gusts (isolated above 70 mph possible) and a few line-embedded tornadoes. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already issued for central New Mexico including Albuquerque metro.
    • East coast of Florida: Residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Flood Watch in effect for parts of the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday afternoon. Additional rain continues into Monday on saturated soils. No organized severe threat.

    Just-Hit

    Heavy rainfall from the atmospheric river continued into Sunday afternoon and evening, producing and extending Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona, including a rapid rise on the Paria River and persistent threats in the Tucson area. Severe thunderstorms developed in central New Mexico by late afternoon, prompting Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with radar-indicated 60 mph wind gusts. Preliminary local storm reports include 60 mph gusts in Clark County, Nevada, earlier in the convective day. No widespread tornado reports logged yet, but the threat is increasing as the line organizes and moves east.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC Nov 2 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 2): SLIGHT RISK NM into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for NM. Damaging winds primary, few tornadoes possible with line. Storms developing; MCD 2424.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Four Corners (~64k sq mi, ~3.7M people). Active Flash Flood Warnings AZ. Flood Watches AZ/NM/UT/CO and residual FL. Saturated soils from recent events.

    Restoration Read

    Moderate flood lane remains the primary driver on already saturated soils across the Southwest and Four Corners. Expect flash flooding of washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban corridors, and burn scars, with potential for considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim. Active severe threat in New Mexico and the High Plains brings risk of damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and a few tornadoes with the evening and overnight line of storms. Florida residual flash flood risk under Slight ERO. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, roof/siding/tree damage from winds, and residual coastal flooding. Turn around, don’t drown. No tropical component.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and WPC Moderate Risk are both open. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Monday: SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Slight Risk shifting eastward across North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Missouri for late Monday afternoon into evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. WPC Day 2 holds residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the east coast of Florida. Southwest flood threat begins to wind down as the moisture plume moves through, but residual runoff on saturated soils continues into Monday. No tropical development expected.

    Rising Queries

    Rising queries tied to the Southwest flood and New Mexico severe hotspot include “flood watch,” “flash flood warning,” and related searches for Arizona and New Mexico flooding.

    Sources

    Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: High Plains Severe — Nov 01 Morning

    Storm Updates: High Plains Severe — Nov 01 Morning

    As of the morning desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 8:15 PM PST / 04:15 UTC November 2), the national picture has both severe and flood lanes open. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0641 PM CST November 1, valid 020100Z–021200Z) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.” The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z November 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2) places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the earlier morning desk pulse table (this slug, prior version ~6:14 PM PST): SPC Day 1 has been updated to the 0100 UTC November 2 cycle. Slight Risk remains in place across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Thunderstorms have developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and are expected to organize into a line moving east-northeast into the Panhandles this evening into overnight, with severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 remains in effect until 0400 UTC November 2 for portions of New Mexico.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO continues a Moderate Risk, now valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2, covering ~64,000 square miles and ~3.7 million people. Flood Watches and multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active across Arizona, New Mexico, and surrounding areas on saturated soils.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook confirms tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No named cyclone threatens or has just hit the U.S. coast or Gulf.
    • NWS products show ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in central New Mexico (including Albuquerque metro), Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona (Paria River, Tucson area, Graham/Greenlee), High Wind Warnings in New Mexico and Texas, and Tornado Watches noted in local reports for parts of the South Plains/Texas Panhandle.
    • No major shift in overall risk levels since the prior update this morning, but the severe threat is now actively unfolding with storms moving into the Slight Risk area. Dominant restoration ticket remains the Moderate excessive rainfall and flash flooding on saturated soils across the Southwest, compounded by the active severe wind/tornado threat in New Mexico and the Panhandles.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 2, 2026 / 0641 PM CST November 1) lists a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (area ~61,900 sq mi, population ~673,000). Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains. Ahead of a lead shortwave, storms have developed in north-central New Mexico and will move east-northeast with potential for severe wind gusts. Further east, a band of strong storms is expected over central New Mexico, organizing into a line moving into the Texas Panhandle. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Supercells possible within the line; Amarillo VWP shows 0-3 km SRH near 350 m²/s², supporting tornado potential (see MCD 2424). Threat persists into overnight into northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas with isolated severe gusts.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (valid 0100Z Mon Nov 02 through 1200Z Mon Nov 02, issued 0027Z) places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (at least 40% probability) covering 64,281 square miles and 3,656,961 people. Slight Risk covers larger areas. Primary focus remains the Southwest/Four Corners on already saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in Arizona, including extensions for the Paria River and Tucson metro areas. Flood Watches remain widespread across Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and parts of California, Nevada, and Florida.

    Hotspots

    • Southwest / Four Corners and Southern High Plains (AZ, NM, TX Panhandle, OK Panhandle): Primary focus under WPC Moderate Risk and SPC Slight Risk. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for New Mexico until 0400 UTC. Line of storms developing across central/eastern NM moving into the Panhandles overnight, with damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and line-embedded tornadoes possible. Flash Flood Warnings active in northern and southeastern Arizona (Paria River/Lees Ferry, Tucson metro including Pima/Santa Cruz, Graham/Greenlee). Flood Watches cover much of the region. Expect efficient runoff on saturated soils leading to flash flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars. Heavy rain rates up to 2 inches per hour possible in stronger cells.
    • East coast of Florida: Residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Flood Watch in effect for parts of the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday. Soils sensitive from multi-day rainfall. No organized severe threat.
    • Scattered local alerts: High Wind Warning for Sacramento Mountains and other areas in New Mexico/Texas (gusts 65+ mph). Winter Storm Warnings in portions of Colorado and Nevada. Beach Hazards Statements on California coast.

    Just-Hit

    Heavy rainfall from the atmospheric river continued into Sunday afternoon and evening, producing and extending Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona, including rapid rises on the Paria River and persistent threats in the Tucson area on saturated soils. Severe thunderstorms developed in central New Mexico by late afternoon, prompting Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with 60 mph wind gusts indicated. No widespread tornado reports logged yet as of the 0100 UTC outlook, but the threat is increasing as the line organizes and moves east into better moisture and shear.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:15 PM PST / 04:15 UTC Nov 2 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 2): SLIGHT RISK NM into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for NM until 0400Z Nov 2. Damaging winds primary, few tornadoes possible with line. Storms developing.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Southwest (~64k sq mi, ~3.7M people). Active Flash Flood Warnings AZ. Flood Watches AZ/NM/UT/CO and others. Saturated soils from recent events.

    Restoration Read

    Moderate flood lane remains the primary driver on already saturated soils across the Southwest. Expect flash flooding of washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban areas, and burn scars, with potential for considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim and surrounding terrain. Active severe threat in New Mexico and the High Plains brings risk of damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and a few tornadoes with the evening/overnight line of storms, plus ongoing severe thunderstorm warnings. Florida residual flash flood risk under Slight ERO. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, roof/siding/tree damage from winds, and residual coastal flooding. Turn around, don’t drown. No tropical component.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and WPC Moderate Risk are both open. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Monday: SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Slight Risk shifting eastward across North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Missouri for late Monday afternoon into evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. WPC Day 2 holds residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of Florida. Southwest flood threat begins to wind down as the plume moves through, but residual runoff on saturated soils continues into Monday. No tropical development expected.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 2 2026 / 0641 PM CST Nov 1): spc.noaa.gov
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z Nov 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z Nov 2): wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
    • SPC Current Watches (Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699): spc.noaa.gov
    • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook: nhc.noaa.gov
    • NWS Watches, Warnings & Advisories: weather.gov
    • Prior desk on this slug: updated in place from earlier November 1 morning version.

    Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 30

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 30

    As of the afternoon desk on Friday, October 30, 2026 (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 04:15 UTC October 31), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0733 PM CDT October 30, valid 310100Z–311200Z) holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and central Arizona. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC October 31) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-30-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk remains focused on southern and central Arizona (~40,612 sq mi, ~5.5 million people including Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler). Primary threats stay isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. No convective watches currently valid. Geographic shift from earlier Kansas/Texas noted in morning has held.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO latest update (discussion 853 PM EDT) centers the Slight Risk on portions of Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern New Mexico. Southwest remains the main focus with additional 1+ inch possible overnight before instability fades. Residual activity noted in the Plains but primary lane is the Southwest. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix metro area), with law enforcement reporting multiple water rescues and 0.75–2.25 inches already fallen.
    • No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance have dissipated; residual moisture supports the Southwest rainfall threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Active Flash Flood Warnings issued and remaining in effect for Maricopa County, Arizona (into the late evening MST), with radar-indicated heavy rain and streamflow gauges above alarm stage. Residual High Wind and Winter Storm Warnings continue in Alaska. Special Marine Warnings earlier along the Texas coast. These do not alter the national Slight flood or Marginal severe lanes.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane remains Slight with verified ongoing flash flooding now centered in the Phoenix area. Quiet Pulse criteria hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no U.S. tropical watch or warning.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (issued 0733 PM CDT October 30, 2026) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and central Arizona. A shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest is supporting convective development along a surface trough, with MLCAPE estimated at 1000–1200 J/kg and 0–6 km shear around 30 knots. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are the primary threats over the next few hours. No current watches or mesoscale discussions active as of the latest scan.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0051 UTC October 31, discussion 853 PM EDT) places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern New Mexico. The Southwest remains the main focus; additional 1+ inch is possible before available instability is exhausted. HREF probabilities of flash flood guidance exceedance decrease rapidly after 06Z. Earlier Slight coverage over west Texas has shifted or residualized as the primary threat moves west.

    NWS has issued multiple Flash Flood Warnings for Maricopa County, Arizona (including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, New River, Cave Creek, and Anthem areas), valid into the late evening. Law enforcement reported multiple water rescues. Residual Flood Warnings exist on some river systems from prior rainfall (e.g., Florida). High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings continue in Alaska. Special Marine Warnings were issued earlier for Texas coastal waters capable of producing waterspouts. SPC today’s storm reports show a delayed tornado report near Marion KS and hail reports in Las Vegas NV; no widespread significant severe reports for the Arizona Marginal area.

    Hotspots

    • Southern and central Arizona (Phoenix metro): Marginal Risk for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. Active Flash Flood Warnings in Maricopa County with 0.75–2.25 inches already fallen, streamflow gauges above alarm, and multiple water rescues reported by law enforcement. Primary short-term focus for both severe and flood lanes. Population centers include Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tucson.
    • Southern Utah and southwestern New Mexico: Included in the WPC Day 1 Slight Risk excessive rainfall. Sensitive terrain, burn scars, and slot canyons most vulnerable to flash flooding. Expansion noted in earlier discussions.
    • Residual river flooding and Alaska: Ongoing Flood Warnings on residual river systems in Florida. High Wind Warnings (gusts to 70–80 mph) and Winter Storm Warning (7–15 inches snow) in Alaska. Not drivers of the national Slight or Marginal lanes.

    Just-Hit / Local Storm Reports

    Active Flash Flood Warnings in Maricopa County, Arizona confirm ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding impacts as of late evening MST. Radar-indicated thunderstorms have produced 0.75–2.25 inches with additional amounts possible in some areas; law enforcement reported multiple water rescues. SPC today’s reports include a delayed tornado near Marion, KS, and hail (quarter to half-dollar size) in the Las Vegas, NV area. No widespread significant severe reports (tornado, large hail, or widespread damaging wind) logged for the current Arizona Marginal area as of this desk. SPC storm reports page continues to update.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 04:15 UTC Oct 31 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance dissipated; no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~40.6k sq mi, ~5.5M people) for southern/central Arizona (isolated wind/hail). No active watches.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk AZ, southern UT, SW NM. Active FFWs in Maricopa County AZ with water rescues. Residual river Flood Warnings continue.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in southern and central Arizona (especially Maricopa County / Phoenix metro) under the Slight Risk and active warnings, with verified ongoing impacts including water rescues. Isolated severe wind and hail potential in the same area this evening. Sensitive terrain in southern Utah and southwestern New Mexico also at risk. Residual river stage concerns elsewhere. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead

    SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe areas forecast. Residual moisture continues to support showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest into the weekend. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with additional rainfall possible across Arizona, with Flood Watches extending into Saturday night–Sunday. No elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet. Monitor for any overnight updates to Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona.

    Rising Queries

    • Arizona storms Halloween weekend
    • Phoenix flash flood warning
    • Maricopa County flooding
    • severe thunderstorm Arizona
    • Southwest excessive rainfall

    Sources

    • Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 31, issued 0733 PM CDT Oct 30; today’s storm reports)
    • Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO updated 0051 UTC Oct 31, Slight Risk AZ/southern UT/SW NM)
    • National Weather Service (Flash Flood Warnings in Maricopa AZ including water rescues, residual Flood Warnings, Alaska warnings)
    • National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; no U.S. land threat)
    • Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-30-morning

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 30 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 30 Morning

    As of the morning desk on Friday, October 30, 2026 (updated approximately 7:15 PM PDT / 02:15 UTC October 31), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0733 PM CDT October 30, valid 310100Z–311200Z) holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and central Arizona. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the previous desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk has shifted from central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi) and southwest Texas to southern and central Arizona (~40,612 sq mi, ~5.5 million people including Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler). Primary threats are isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. No convective watches currently valid.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO continues a Slight Risk for west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico from residual Vance moisture. Active Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect for portions of west Texas (Howard, Mitchell, Scurry, Dawson, Gaines Counties), with 1–2 inches already fallen and flooding ongoing. Marginal Risk persists near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. Flood lane remains Slight.
    • No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance have dissipated; residual moisture supports the Southwest rainfall threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Residual High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings remain active in portions of Alaska. Special Marine Warnings were issued along the Texas coast for waterspouts. Flash Flood Warnings also noted in Maricopa County, Arizona. These do not alter the national Slight flood or Marginal severe lanes.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal with a geographic shift to Arizona. Flood lane remains Slight with verified ongoing flash flooding in west Texas. Quiet Pulse criteria hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no U.S. tropical watch or warning.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (issued 0733 PM CDT October 30, 2026) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and central Arizona. A shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest is supporting convective development along a surface trough, with MLCAPE estimated at 1000–1200 J/kg and 0–6 km shear around 30 knots. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are the primary threats over the next few hours. No current watches or mesoscale discussions active as of the latest scan.

    WPC Day 1 ERO places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Hourly rain amounts of up to 2 inches are possible with cell mergers or training, and local totals of 5 inches near the TX/MX border. Elevated PWATs of 1.5–2 inches from residual Vance moisture support the threat. Active Flash Flood Warnings confirm ongoing impacts in west Texas counties. Flood Watches have been in effect for central Arizona.

    NWS has residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., Florida Keys). High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings continue in Alaska. Special Marine Warnings have been issued for waters along the Texas coast capable of producing waterspouts and gusts to 40 knots. Flash Flood Warnings active in Maricopa, AZ.

    Hotspots

    • West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall continuing into the evening. Active Flash Flood Warnings in Howard, Mitchell, Scurry, Dawson, and Gaines Counties with 1–2 inches already observed and flooding ongoing. Dominant flood lane. Urban areas, highways, and low-lying terrain most vulnerable.
    • Southern and central Arizona: Marginal Risk for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. Population centers include Phoenix and Tucson. Shortwave trough and surface trough providing lift and shear. Primary short-term severe focus. Flood Watches earlier in the day for central Arizona.
    • Residual river and coastal flooding plus Alaska: Ongoing Flood Warnings on residual river systems in Florida and New Mexico. High Wind Warnings (gusts to 70–80 mph) and Winter Storm Warning (7–15 inches snow) in Alaska. Not drivers of the national Slight or Marginal lanes.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~7:15 PM PDT / 02:15 UTC Oct 31 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance dissipated; no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~40.6k sq mi, ~5.5M people) for southern/central Arizona (isolated wind/hail). No active watches.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk west/central TX and SE NM. Active FFWs in west Texas counties. Residual river Flood Warnings continue. Flood Watches in AZ earlier.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico under the Slight Risk, with verified ongoing impacts in multiple west Texas counties. Isolated severe wind and hail potential in southern and central Arizona this evening. Residual river stage concerns on Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead

    SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe areas forecast. Residual moisture from Vance continues to support showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest into the weekend. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with additional rainfall possible across Arizona and the southern Plains, but no elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet. Monitor for any overnight updates to Flash Flood Warnings in Texas and Arizona.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    • Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 31, issued 0733 PM CDT Oct 30)
    • Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO, Slight Risk TX/NM)
    • National Weather Service (watches, warnings, Flash Flood Warnings in west Texas and Maricopa AZ, residual Flood Warnings)
    • National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; remnants of Vance)
    • Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29

    As of the afternoon desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC October 30), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special update 0132 UTC October 30) includes a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet) and the earlier afternoon desk (~8:14 PM PDT): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special issuance 0132 UTC Oct 30) maintains a Slight Risk for west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, driven by moisture from the remnants of Vance and ongoing convection. Marginal Risk also noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. Flood lane remains Slight. Active Flash Flood Warnings now in effect in northeastern Kansas (Marshall and Nemaha counties, with 3–3.5 inches already fallen) and portions of New Mexico.
    • No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued; no longer a well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture is spreading into the south-central and southwestern United States. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail possible). Residual Flood Warnings continue on river systems from prior rainfall (St. Johns River near Deland and Astor in Florida; portions of New Mexico), plus localized Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane remains Slight. No SPC Slight or higher, no WPC Moderate or higher, no U.S. tropical watch/warning. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Short-term focus is isolated severe and flash flooding in Kansas plus the TX/NM Slight Risk area.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, 2026, valid through 12Z October 30) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. In Kansas, widely scattered thunderstorms are developing near a stalled front in a moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) with sufficient shear for cell rotation, supporting an isolated hail threat as storms move northeastward. In southwest Texas, weak instability and elevated low-level shear/helicity support a brief tornado possibility with low-topped cells early this evening. No current watches.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC Fri Oct 30) places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, with hourly rain amounts potentially reaching 2 inches from cell mergers or training, and local totals of 5 inches possible near the TX/MX border. A Marginal Risk is also indicated near the Missouri/Kansas/Iowa/Nebraska border junction. Confidence is high in a heavy rainfall event through tonight into Friday morning from moisture associated with the remnants of Vance. PWATs elevated to 1.5–2 inches across much of Texas.

    NWS has issued Flash Flood Warnings for west central Marshall County and northern Nemaha County in northeastern Kansas until approximately 2:45 AM CDT, based on 3–3.5 inches of rain with additional amounts possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains for northeastern Nemaha County. Residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida) continue. High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. Additional Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches are in effect in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.

    Hotspots

    • West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall this evening into Friday morning. Highest totals near the border; flash flooding possible from training storms and elevated PWATs (1.5–2 inches). Urban and low-lying areas most vulnerable. Dominant flood lane.
    • Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Flash Flood Warnings in Nemaha and Marshall counties (3–3.5 inches already fallen near Bern and Marysville). Primary short-term severe and flood focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan.
    • Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories and active Flash Flood Warnings in the Southwest and Hawaii. Not the driver of the new Slight Risk.

    Just-Hit / Local Storm Reports

    Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (radar-indicated 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail near Bern). Flash Flood Warnings in Marshall and Nemaha counties with gauge-indicated 3–3.5 inches of rain. SPC storm reports page previously showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports received for the day; local warnings indicate ongoing activity. No widespread significant reports beyond the active warnings.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC Oct 30 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory, no well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture spreading into SW U.S. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~19k sq mi, ~592k people) for central/NE Kansas (isolated hail) and locally SW Texas (brief tornado possible). No active watches. SVR Warning in Nemaha County KS.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk west/central TX and SE NM (special update). Marginal near KS/MO/IA/NE. Active FFWs in NE KS (Marshall/Nemaha) and NM. Residual river Flood Warnings continue.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary residual and short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in west and central Texas, southeastern New Mexico, and now northeastern Kansas under active warnings (3+ inches already in Marshall/Nemaha). Isolated hail potential in central and northeast Kansas with an active Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Ongoing river stage concerns on residual Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead

    SPC Day 2 holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of southern and central Arizona for Friday (isolated damaging winds and large hail possible). Day 3 shows no severe areas. WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for TX/NM continues into early Friday; residual moisture from Vance contributes to Southwest showers. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with rain possible across the Plains, but no elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet.

    Rising Queries

    • flood watch
    • Texas flood
    • Kansas storms
    • severe thunderstorm warning
    • flash flood

    Sources

    • Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29)
    • Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO special update 0132 UTC Oct 30, Slight Risk TX/NM)
    • National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, active FFWs and SVR Warning in KS)
    • National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; remnants of Vance EPAC)
    • Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.