Tag: Texas

Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Saturday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 3, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 8:16 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

These are county- and ZIP-scale leftovers and a coastal water board, not a mainland hurricane landfall. The live restoration ticket this morning is rain already aimed at the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast, not a new convective watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:35 UTC Saturday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Friday night carried into Saturday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch.

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday window, and for the new Saturday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. Pre-dawn thunderstorms were ongoing across the Dakotas ahead of a cold front, but the Day 1 discussion keeps severe potential virtually nil even if a stronger gust occurs this afternoon.

What is organized is water. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday and valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast. Forecaster Wegman left the coastal Slight Risk in place and added a higher-end Slight Risk from New Orleans through much of the western Florida Panhandle, citing urban impacts and rainfall volume rather than a change in the underlying front.

Hotspot 1 — Central Gulf Coast

A tropical wave moving across the Gulf is funneling record to near-record atmospheric moisture into much of the Gulf Coast on Saturday. A 15 to 25 knot southerly flow at 850 mb supports numerous showers and thunderstorms moving into the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. Precipitable water is at or above 2.5 inches for many areas. Extensive cloud cover and the October sun should limit instability with any reasonable distance from the coast, so convection that hits the coast is not expected to travel far inland without significant weakening.

The coast can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain today, with locally higher amounts. Flash-flood guidance is high and soils have been dry, but WPC still flags widely scattered flash flooding where that volume lands on urban drainage, especially from New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle. Mississippi and Alabama coastal counties sit in the same Slight Risk envelope.

Cities and counties to watch: New Orleans, the south shore and east bank parishes, coastal Mississippi from Hancock through Jackson County, Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle from Pensacola toward Panama City. Inland rows are a weaker pulse. The front that stretches from the Carolinas southwest toward the Texas coastal plain is the broader thunderstorm focus, but weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates should limit organized severe convection along and south of it.

Restoration read: water first, and only where a warning or a measured street flood actually verifies. Stage extractors, air movers, and moisture meters for urban low spots, underpasses, and slab-on-grade first floors. This is not a wind or hail board. Do not staff a regional roof crew on a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Photograph standing water only if the road is already closed and it is safe to be there.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The second Slight Risk remains along the coast of Deep South Texas. Onshore northeasterly flow of the same deep tropical moisture may reach urban areas such as Brownsville. Because this stretch of coast sits roughly perpendicular to the mean flow, WPC expects the onshore push to let convection move a few miles inland before it dissipates. No change was made to the area included in that Slight Risk on the 0738 UTC update.

Friday afternoon’s central Texas story is a different board. The prior desk held a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on the I-35 corridor from Dallas–Fort Worth toward San Antonio, plus flood advisories in Comal, Guadalupe, and Hays counties and a flood watch that included coastal and inland Jackson County until early Friday evening. Those were time-limited products. They are not the Saturday morning Slight Risk. If a river or areal flood warning is still up in central or south-central Texas this morning, treat it as yesterday’s water still in the channel, not as a new convective watch.

Restoration read: Brownsville and the lower Texas coast are the new water ticket if cells train against the coast. Central Texas and southwest Kansas remain aftermath boards from Thursday and Friday. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Northern Plains scatter, and what expired

Progressive westerlies cover the northern half of the country through tonight, with a fairly substantial shortwave trough amplifying over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As the cold front shifts east, a modest increase in moisture, steepening lapse rates, and increasing lift support isolated thunderstorms, including the pre-dawn activity across the Dakotas. SPC allows that some stronger, convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur this afternoon. Severe potential is expected to remain virtually nil. There is no Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High Risk on the Day 1 categorical map.

Friday afternoon flash-flood warnings on the Georgia–Florida line, including Clinch and Echols counties in Georgia and Columbia County in Florida, were issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville with expiration times Friday evening. They are not a live Saturday morning warning. A separate river flood warning on the lower Fox River near New Munster, affecting Lake County, Illinois, and Kenosha County, Wisconsin, was continued Friday afternoon until Monday morning for minor flooding. That is a river-stage ticket, not a convective watch.

Tropics — not a U.S. land desk

National Hurricane Center Advisory 25 at 2:00 a.m. MST Saturday places Hurricane Rachel near 19.4°N, 111.8°W, about 270 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 969 mb. Rachel has weakened slightly and continues westward. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected today, with additional slow weakening. Swells will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend and can produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. That is a marine hazard, not a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific system, near 23.3°N, 170.4°W at 2:00 a.m. HST, moving west at 13 mph with winds of 110 mph. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf Coast rain is tied to a tropical wave and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central Gulf Coast (SE LA, coastal MS/AL, western FL Panhandle)	Heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight, higher-end on the coast	Live today and tonight; 3–6 inches, locally higher
Lower Texas coast (Brownsville)	Onshore heavy rain	WPC Slight	Live; cells may push a few miles inland
Northern Plains / Dakotas	Isolated storms, gusts	No severe area	Pre-dawn storms; severe potential virtually nil
Southeast / Deep South front	General thunderstorms	No severe area	Weak shear, modest lapse rates
Central Texas / southwest Kansas	Yesterday’s water	Aftermath, not a new watch	Verify any leftover flood warning before rolling
Fox River near New Munster	Minor river flood	Flood warning to Monday morning	River stage, not convective
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Rachel west of Baja; no coastal warnings	Swells and rip currents in Mexico only

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. A 3-to-6-inch coastal rain is wet drywall, flooring, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance and dry soils mean many miles of the Slight Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning, not the polygon. Urban New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle is the higher-end piece of the same Slight Risk because of drainage, not because a watch is up.

Southwest Kansas and central Texas are still yesterday’s water if a flood statement is still valid. Friday’s flash-flood emergency language in Ford County and the I-35 flood advisories do not automatically roll into Saturday. Check the office product before a crew leaves the yard. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.

Next check

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 3, valid Monday, also carries no severe thunderstorm areas, with the more robust low-level moisture staying on the Gulf Coast and winds aloft remaining weak. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Slight Risk and any new flood warnings on the central Gulf Coast before treating the morning polygon as still live.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, October 3, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 2 and October 3 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary; National Hurricane Center Advisory 25 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Saturday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Central Texas Slight Flood, Kansas Water — Friday, October 2, 2026.

Disclaimer: This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a warning, not a forecast for a specific address, and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov before travel or work.

October 3, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Flood Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Friday, October 2, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Friday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 2, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:36 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Friday through 1200 UTC Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

These are county- and ZIP-scale leftovers, not a mainland hurricane landfall. The live restoration ticket is yesterday’s water still in streets, basements, and low crossings in southwest Kansas and south-central Texas, not a new watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 11:17 UTC, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, issued 5:10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, September 30, for west-central Texas from near Fort Stockton to east of Abilene. It expired at midnight CDT Wednesday. It is not a Friday product.

No mesoscale discussions are in effect. The most recent is MD 2345, issued 1:32 p.m. CDT Thursday for southwestern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma. Watch probability was 5 percent. A couple of severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado were possible; a watch was not expected. That discussion has expired.

Thursday afternoon flood products have also expired. National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Emergency at 2:32 p.m. CDT for Dodge City and central Ford County, tagged catastrophic damage threat and a particularly dangerous situation, after 3 to 6 inches of rain with another 3 to 5 inches possible. That warning ran until 5:30 p.m. CDT. Separate Dodge City warnings covered southwestern Gray, southern Haskell, northwestern Meade, and northeastern Seward counties until 6:00 p.m. CDT, and northwestern Ford County until 5:15 p.m. CDT. Topeka warnings covered Geary and northwestern Morris until 7:00 p.m. CDT, including Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 302 and 310 and 315, and a continuation for Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, and neighboring Riley, Pottawatomie, Nemaha, and Jackson counties until 5:00 p.m. CDT. Wichita covered northeastern McPherson and northwestern Marion until 8:00 p.m. CDT, considerable threat, with up to 3 inches already down and another 3 possible.

In Texas, Austin/San Antonio kept a Flash Flood Warning until 7:00 p.m. CDT for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties. Emergency management reported flooding and numerous low-water crossings closed. San Antonio, Schertz, Converse, Pleasanton, Floresville, and neighboring towns were in the polygon. Between 1 and 4 inches had fallen. Shreveport covered northwestern Cherokee and central Smith counties, including Tyler and Jacksonville, until 6:30 p.m. CDT. None of those polygons are still in force this morning.

Hotspot 1 — Dodge City and central Kansas water, after the emergency

The morning desk is an aftermath desk. Dodge City and central Ford County took the highest language NWS uses for flash flooding: emergency, catastrophic, seek higher ground. Junction City, Manhattan, and the McPherson–Marion line were the second story, with I-70 in the Topeka polygon. SPC’s filtered report board for the 12Z Thursday to 12Z Friday window did not log a tornado or hail report. The only wind reports are two ASOS gusts at Garden City (KGCK), 3 miles northwest of Pierceville in Finney County: 58 mph at 1754 UTC and 59 mph at 1802 UTC. That is sub-severe on the usual 58 mph severe-wind threshold only by a mile of rounding, and it is not a damage survey.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction, drying, and content work in Ford County and along the I-70 corridor in Geary and Riley counties are already on the clock from Thursday afternoon, not from a Friday warning. Photograph standing water and closed crossings only if it is safe. Do not treat an expired emergency as a live warning, and do not treat an expired warning as a clean street.

Hotspot 2 — San Antonio and south Texas water, then a Saturday Gulf Coast slight

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall product still posted on the public page this morning is the overnight update, issued 0036 UTC Friday and valid 01Z to 12Z Friday. That window has expired. It held a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern Plains, with the greatest rates in southern and central Texas and a broader excessive-rainfall threat north into the Plains, the southern Great Lakes, and the far western Ohio Valley. Earlier Thursday discussion kept the Moderate from South Texas toward southeast Oklahoma, with ensemble means of 3 to 6 inches from the Austin–San Antonio metro into South Texas and higher-end local maxima above 8 to 10 inches in the wettest scenarios. A Marginal covered the Florida east coast from Miami to the Space Coast for isolated urban rates over an inch an hour.

The next flood overlay already on the board is Day 2, updated 0749 UTC Friday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast. Broad southerly flow off the Gulf pumps tropical moisture north, with precipitable water expected to exceed 2.5 inches. The Slight was expanded west to include the Houston metro in coordination with the Houston forecast office. New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, and Pensacola sit in the same Saturday afternoon language. That is tomorrow’s staffing note, not this morning’s warning.

Restoration read: San Antonio and Bexar County are Thursday’s observed flood, closed crossings, and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water got inside. Houston and the central Gulf Coast are a Saturday watch-item if the Slight verifies. Do not send the same crew to both stories.

Hotspot 3 — Mid-Atlantic gusts that stay below a risk area

SPC’s Friday discussion puts a progressive stream of westerlies over the northern third of the country. An extensive cold front continues east-southeast, reaching the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by this evening and otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the front and stay common on the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

As the front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva later this evening, effective shear of 35 knots or more will exist, and to a lesser extent southwest toward the Appalachians and the Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near and ahead of the front if there is enough sun and modest destabilization. Moist-profile, subsidence-related poor lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms. That is why the categorical map is blank. It is not a Slight Risk and it is not a watch.

Restoration read: isolated tree and service-drop work is possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Delmarva if a cell gusts. Do not stage a regional wind event on a no-risk outlook.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-cycle LSR board, covering 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday, is empty: no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The Thursday 12Z-to-12Z board is the Garden City pair only. The damage that already looks like a ticket is the flood language, not the LSR list: the Dodge City emergency, the Manhattan–Junction City observed flooding, and the San Antonio low-water crossings.

National Hurricane Center, 2:00 a.m. MST Friday advisory on Hurricane Rachel: the center was near 19.4°N, 110.4°W, moving west at 5 mph, maximum sustained winds 115 mph, minimum pressure 955 mb. Rachel has weakened slightly and turned westward, south of Baja California Sur. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones on the 8:00 a.m. EDT Friday outlook. Tropical Storm Nolo is a Central Pacific system, with tropical-storm conditions in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. None of those is a mainland restoration staffing problem this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Dodge City / Ford County, KS	Flash-flood aftermath, 3–6 in already	Flash Flood Emergency expired 5:30 p.m. CDT Thu	Aftermath; not a live warning
Junction City, Manhattan, McPherson–Marion, KS	Training rain, I-70 crossings	Flash Flood Warnings expired Thu evening	Aftermath / drying clock
San Antonio / Bexar, Atascosa, Wilson	Observed flooding, closed crossings	Flash Flood Warning expired 7 p.m. CDT Thu	Aftermath
Garden City / Finney County, KS	58–59 mph ASOS gusts	SPC LSR only; no watch	Logged; no damage survey on the board
Coastal Mid-Atlantic / Delmarva / Cumberland Plateau	Isolated gusty storms	SPC Day 1: no severe areas	Possible this afternoon; not organized
Houston / central Gulf Coast	Heavy rain Saturday	WPC Day 2 Slight excessive rainfall	Tomorrow, not this morning
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches valid; WW 676 expired Wed midnight	Quiet
Atlantic / Rachel vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	Rachel west of Baja, no watches; Atlantic empty	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A blank Day 1 severe map is not a blank work board. Thursday’s catastrophic flash-flood language in Dodge City and the considerable-threat polygons in central Kansas and Bexar County are the jobs already started. Water inside a building from a Thursday afternoon warning is still a same-cycle extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock on Friday morning. The Garden City gusts are a local check, not a wind event.

For teams in Ford, Geary, Riley, McPherson, Marion, Bexar, Atascosa, or Wilson counties: confirm the warning has expired, then work the water that is already in. For teams on the Delmarva and the Cumberland Plateau: a couple of gusty storms are possible later today, below watch criteria. For Houston and the central Gulf Coast: Saturday’s Slight is the next flood overlay. Do not staff it as if it were live this morning.

What this is not

This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC Day 2, issued 10:58 p.m. CDT Thursday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Saturday’s summary: no severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Isolated lightning is possible over the Upper Midwest with a shortwave, and scattered thunderstorms are expected on the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas with weak shear. The work this morning, if crews are rolling, is Thursday’s water.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. If the Mid-Atlantic front produces a stronger storm, it will show up as a local warning or a special weather statement, not as a categorical risk area on the current package. The flood story shifts toward the central Gulf Coast on Saturday under the WPC Day 2 Slight. Rachel stays an eastern Pacific system moving west, away from the Baja coast.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, October 2, 2026, and the 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued Watch 676) and current mesoscale discussions (none; last MD 2345); SPC preliminary storm reports for October 1 and October 2; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid through 12Z Friday and Day 2 outlook updated 0749 UTC Friday; National Weather Service warning text for Dodge City, Topeka, Wichita, Austin/San Antonio, and Shreveport from Thursday afternoon; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Rachel Advisory 21 and the Atlantic tropical weather outlook.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday, October 1 afternoon storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 2, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Thursday, October 1, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Thursday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 1, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, issued at 7:53 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The work that verified was last evening in central Kansas, plus wind and heavy rain on the southern Plains. Today the national pulse is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a flood desk on the rain side.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and leftover water, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Remnant moisture from Polo is already folded into the Plains low. Restoration exposure this morning is survey work on a narrow Kansas tornado path, wind and pole damage in west and northwest Texas, and interior water where Wednesday night rain trained. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

Tornado Watch 675 covered central into northeast Kansas from 4:00 p.m. CDT Wednesday until 11:00 p.m. CDT. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676 covered west-central Texas from 5:10 p.m. CDT until midnight CDT, with damaging wind to 70 mph the primary threat and a tornado or two not ruled out. Both have expired. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:12 UTC Thursday, lists no watches currently valid. The most recent issuance was Watch 676.

The 0100 UTC Day 1 update Wednesday evening still carried a Slight Risk from Texas into southwest Oklahoma and over north-central Kansas, with a couple of tornadoes possible for another hour or two in north-central and northeast Kansas. By the 0600 UTC outlook, SPC had dropped all categorical severe areas. The 1300 UTC update keeps that call. Organized severe potential is low. Occasional gusty winds can still accompany storms from parts of Kansas southward into central and southern Texas. SPC also notes a low-end funnel chance near a weakening surface wave and the front over southern Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, and western and northern Oklahoma if cloud breaks allow heating. That is not a watch, and it is not a categorical risk.

What is still live is the rain. The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued at 2:52 a.m. EDT Thursday keeps a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains today. A Slight Risk covers parts of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Great Lakes. WPC language: numerous flash-flooding events are possible on the Moderate, and streams may flood, including debris flows in or near recently burned areas. The Slight is mainly localized flash flooding of urban streets, roads, and small streams. SPC’s own Day 1 text says the same thing in different words for eastern Oklahoma into north Texas, the Hill Country, and the Edwards Plateau: repetitive, locally heavy rainfall is the main concern as the rain shield shifts slowly east ahead of a surface low and cold front.

Just hit — central Kansas tornadoes

NWS Wichita has a preliminary event page for Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few low-topped supercells with very low cloud bases produced several tornadoes across Barton, Russell, and Lincoln counties ahead of a strong Plains low, in a tropical-like airmass tied in part to the remnants of Polo. Instability was not extreme. Low-level moisture was. Wichita’s summary: no significant damage or injuries reported.

SPC local storm reports for the period ending 11:59 UTC Thursday list the sequence. Storm-chaser video of a tornado 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County at 20:49 UTC, then 1 mile southeast of Ash Valley at 20:53 UTC. Barton County followed: Olmitz at 21:52 UTC, Galatia at 21:58 UTC, several brief touchdowns west and northwest of Susank between 22:01 and 22:10 UTC, with tornado damage to some outbuildings 4 miles north-northwest of Susank. Russell County: a rope tornado 3 miles east of Bunker Hill, described as 3 miles west of Dorrance and north of I-70, at 22:51 UTC, then a spotter tornado 6 miles south of Lucas at 23:24 UTC. Lincoln County: an elephant-trunk tornado 3 miles east of Lucas at 23:39 UTC, Sylvan Grove at 23:43 and 23:53 UTC, a multi-vortex 4 miles south of Ash Grove at 00:01 UTC. A brief touchdown 2 miles southeast of Victor in Mitchell County at 00:23 UTC is the last tornado LSR on the board. NWS Wichita also issued a confirmed tornado warning for southwestern Russell and northwestern Barton counties around 4:13 p.m. CDT, with a spotter tornado south of Milberger.

Restoration read: this is a survey corridor, not a regional wind event. Outbuildings near Susank are the damage note on the filtered LSR list. Treat Barton, Russell, and Lincoln as the counties to check for roof punctures, farm structures, and tree-on-line calls. Do not staff it as a citywide loss. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The path language from chasers and radar estimates is preliminary.

Just hit — Texas wind, and one Florida Keys note

The same LSR board has no hail reports. Wind is west and northwest Texas, mostly after dark. At least two power poles broken near the base 6 miles north-northwest of Tubbs Corner in Crane County around 20:40 UTC. A measured 58 mph gust at Clayton, New Mexico, at 22:40 UTC. One power pole and line down 1 mile northeast of Roscoe in Nolan County at 23:46 UTC. A 60 mph observer gust 24 miles south of Ozona in Crockett County at 01:06 UTC. A 64 mph gust 10 miles southwest of Paducah in Cottle County at 01:20 UTC. A 60 mph gust 4 miles south-southeast of Estelline in Hall County at 01:29 UTC. A 68 mph gust 4 miles west of Rotan in Fisher County at 02:50 UTC, the strongest measured wind on the board.

That is pole, line, and outbuilding work in the Concho Valley and Rolling Plains, consistent with Watch 676’s wind threat before it expired at midnight. Today’s SPC report page, which opens at 12:00 UTC Thursday, has no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

One non-Plains tornado LSR sits earlier on Wednesday’s board, not in the overnight window: 16:00 UTC, 2 miles southwest of Rock Harbor in Monroe County, Florida. Preliminary highly localized damage to one residence in the Silver Shores community between Tavernier and Rock Harbor, time approximate, investigated by the emergency manager. That is a single-structure note, not a Plains-style outbreak.

Hotspot this morning — Southern Plains rain

SPC describes extensive convection from eastern Oklahoma into north Texas and southwestward into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, with a few stronger elements still ongoing at outlook time. The shield should keep a gradual eastward shift through the day on warm advection ahead of the surface low and cold front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain limit heating. Low-level winds are expected to weaken. Gusty winds can still occur. The severe ceiling is low. The water ceiling is not.

Wednesday’s WPC Day 1 Moderate, valid through 12 UTC Thursday, already targeted the Concho Valley, North Texas west of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country between San Angelo and Fort Worth, the Red River Valley, and a second Moderate from north-central Kansas through southeast Nebraska into western Iowa, including the Omaha and Des Moines corridors, with 2 to 4 inches and local amounts higher where cells trained on the warm front. Thursday’s new Moderate stays on the Southern Plains as Gulf moisture pools along the front. Cities and counties to watch for water, not for a new severe watch: San Angelo, Abilene, the Hill Country approaches to Fort Worth, southeast Oklahoma, and the Red River counties. Central Plains and western Iowa are the leftover Slight, where Wednesday night rain may already be in streets and small streams.

Restoration read: rain first. Stage extractors and drying equipment where flash-flood warnings or flooded intersections verify, especially on soils that took rain yesterday. A 58 to 68 mph gust is roof, siding, and service-drop work in the counties that already reported poles. A funnel or brief spin-up near the Kansas–Oklahoma boundary, if one occurs, is a local survey, not a second Watch 675. Do not send the Kansas tornado crew and the Texas water crew as if they are the same ticket.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Barton, Russell, Lincoln, Mitchell KS	Tornado path, outbuildings	Watch 675 expired 11 p.m. CDT	Just hit; no significant damage reported
West-central and northwest Texas	Wind, poles, lines	Watch 676 expired midnight CDT	Just hit; 68 mph Rotan
Eastern OK / north TX / Hill Country	Heavy rain, isolated gusts	No severe areas; WPC Moderate flood	Live rain shield
Southern KS / TX Panhandle / western OK	Gusty wind, small hail, funnel chance	No categorical risk	Conditional this afternoon
Central Plains into western Iowa	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Overnight water, still draining
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling cyclone	Polo remnants inland	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 to 68 mph is roof, gutter, tree, and service-drop work, already logged in Crane, Nolan, Cottle, Hall, and Fisher counties. A tornado with no significant damage reported is still a county check: farm buildings and a few roofs can sit outside the first NWS summary. Heavy rain on a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk is wet drywall and a 24 to 48 hour mold clock if water got inside overnight. Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa water from the warm-front train is yesterday’s ticket still moving through town.

For teams on the Southern Plains: the severe watch is over. The flood risk is not. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on low-water crossings west of Fort Worth and through the Hill Country.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products overnight included hurricane conditions in offshore waters of southwest Mexico, not a new U.S. land threat. Polo’s remnants are already in the Plains pattern. The work this morning, where it verifies, is scattered: a tornado survey in central Kansas, pole and roof calls in west Texas, and flooded intersections where the Southern Plains rain shield sits. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 4–8 outlook, issued 4:00 a.m. CDT, does not flag an organized severe episode for the next several days. A large surface high dominates from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast early next week. An isolated severe chance returns to the conversation around Tuesday from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska as a front drops southeast, then shifts toward the mid-Missouri Valley Wednesday. That is not today’s desk. WPC already flags a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on parts of the Southern Plains for Friday, and a Slight from the central Gulf Coast through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians on Saturday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the morning Quiet Pulse holds if a warning cluster fires on the Texas rain shield.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook, 1300 UTC Thursday, October 1, 2026, and the 0100 UTC and 0600 UTC updates; SPC current watches page (no watches valid; Watch 675 and Watch 676 expired); SPC preliminary local storm reports for September 30 and October 1; NWS Wichita event summary for the September 30 central Kansas tornadoes; Weather Prediction Center short-range forecast discussion, 2:52 a.m. EDT October 1, and the Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook covering the overnight Moderate on the Plains and Corn Belt. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 30 afternoon storm updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 1, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The organized desk is back on the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s last advisory on Polo said the remnants dissipated over northwestern Mexico. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven roof and tree work on the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, a conditional tornado window on the Kansas warm front, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC outlook (issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, valid 1300 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) upgrades Day 1 to a Slight Risk over about 82,000 square miles covering parts of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and a separate corridor through central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska. A broader Marginal wraps Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Wichita, Norman, and Midland. Forecasters Guyer and Bentley: thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A few tornadoes and localized wind damage are also possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page last listed Watch 674 as the most recently issued product; that watch is not today’s product and is not in effect this morning. Any new watch this afternoon would be a new number. Today’s SPC local-storm-report board (1200 UTC Wednesday through 1159 UTC Thursday) is empty as of this desk. That is expected before the diurnal window.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches run 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley, with a 2–4 inch, locally 6 inch footprint from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines south of I-80.

Overnight into this morning

Tuesday night’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board is the just-hit file. Two tornado reports came in from the Texas Panhandle after midnight UTC: a social-media video tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County at 0012 UTC (7:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday), position estimated via radar by NWS Amarillo; and a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County at 0245 UTC (9:45 p.m. CDT), reported south of State Highway 335 west of I-27, on the ground 3–4 minutes and then roped out. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

Severe wind also verified on the same night: 67 mph at Roswell Air Center (KROW) in Chaves County, New Mexico, at 0033 UTC; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell at 0037 UTC; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas, at 0324 UTC, with additional measured gusts near 59 mph around 10:22 p.m. CDT. No hail reports were logged on that board. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already had the Southwest flood-and-Marginal frame; last night added the Panhandle tornado and New Mexico/west Texas wind tickets.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This is the higher-confidence diurnal severe corridor. SPC expects early-day convection across the southern Plains to weaken or shift north by early afternoon, then redevelop late afternoon into evening ahead of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Heating of a very moist airmass should push MLCAPE near or above 1,500 J/kg from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Supercells are possible at first. Front-parallel flow and increasing coverage favor a more linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises in the moist environment.

Cities and counties to watch: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Midland on the Marginal fringe, and the Edwards Plateau counties that sit under the Slight contour. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before the late-afternoon initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

SPC upgraded this corridor on the 1300 UTC package. A rather strong low-level jet (50-plus knots diurnally) is forecast to shift northeast across central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska or southwest Iowa by evening. Destabilization near the warm front may stay weak because of clouds, ongoing rain, and poor mid-level lapse rates. The upgrade is about 0–1 km and 0–3 km wind profiles that stay supercell-conducive even if CAPE stays muted. Multiple tornadoes are treated as a viable possibility, not a high-confidence outbreak.

Cities to watch: Topeka under the Slight population list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; the I-70 and Kansas River counties; the Nebraska state-line counties toward Omaha. Flood Watch language was already in play overnight for parts of north-central and northeast Kansas through Thursday afternoon, with 2–4 inches widespread and locally around 6 inches in the wetter cores.

Restoration read: this is the tornado-and-water overlap. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. Training rain on the same warm front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Do not send the same crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, is the working range, with two heavy periods: morning and again in the evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with some repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop and the flash-flood signal cuts off. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Claude and Randall County, Texas, tornado reports and the Roswell / Denver City wind gusts are last night’s tickets. They sit under yesterday’s Marginal from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is farther east and north: the southwest Oklahoma–northwest Texas–Edwards Plateau wind corridor, the Kansas warm-front tornado window, and the Moderate flood footprints on the southern Plains and the Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa axis.

Polo is not a U.S. landfall desk this morning. NHC’s last forecast/advisory (number 38, 0300 UTC Wednesday) placed the remnants near 30.5°N 108.0°W over northwestern Mexico and forecast dissipation by 12Z Wednesday. Hanna is an open-Atlantic tropical storm well east of the mainland. Neither is a restoration staffing problem for the CONUS this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight	Afternoon–tonight initiation
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	A few tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + WPC Moderate flood	Conditional; no watch yet
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Morning and evening pulses
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo dissipated over NW Mexico	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. It is the afternoon and evening probability field. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and the Kansas warm-front counties: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is gone over northwestern Mexico. Hanna is in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2 on the SPC page is already a Marginal. Watches, if they come, will most likely fire late afternoon on the southern Plains and early evening on the Kansas warm front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 1313 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260929 (overnight) and 20260930 (today, empty after 12Z); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center remnants of Polo forecast/advisory 38. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Water still owns the Southwest. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Four Corners country, after overnight flash-flood warnings from southwestern Utah and Mohave County, Arizona, through the Laughlin–Kingman corridor. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Arizona and New Mexico into west Texas. No SPC watches or mesoscale discussions were in effect as of mid-morning UTC.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Hurricane Polo is crossing the Gulf of California into Sonora and is forecast to weaken over the mountains of northern Mexico. Its mid-level remnant is the moisture and shear that keep the Southwest wet and give west Texas a localized tornado and damaging-gust window this afternoon and evening. Restoration exposure today is interior water on already-saturated soils, wash and burn-scar flooding, trees and service drops on isolated severe gusts, and a narrow tornado swath if a cell organizes over eastern New Mexico or the South Plains. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Warnings on the northern Plains have expired. The live national products this morning are the SPC Marginal Risk from southeast Arizona through southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook with a Moderate Risk still parked on the Southwest.

A mid/upper-level low and trough are moving across the Desert Southwest. Polo’s remnant mid-level circulation is expected to phase with that trough, helping a surface low consolidate over eastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight. Widespread convection is already ongoing on that moisture axis and is expected to continue through the afternoon and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates from the tropical remnant will cap how severe the storms get, but increasing deep-layer shear and a strengthening low-level jet later today leave room for organized linear segments and a few episodic supercells.

Hotspot 1 — Four Corners / Southwest flood pulse

This is the water desk. WPC language still supports a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over parts of Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and adjacent high country, with a predecessor rainfall event still working off tropical moisture. Antecedent soils are wet. Burn scars, slot canyons, and south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans remain the first failures. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings covered Hildale and the Short Creek watershed in southwestern Utah, Colorado City and northern Mohave County, the Laughlin–Kingman–Bullhead City corridor, and pieces of San Bernardino and Clark counties. A separate overnight Flash Flood Warning hit the Fargo–Moorhead metro with up to two inches already down and additional rain possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Kingman, Bullhead City, Laughlin, Colorado City, Hildale, Flagstaff and Mogollon Rim drainages, the Lordsburg and Sacramento Mountains country in New Mexico, and saturated drainages in southern Utah. Fargo and Moorhead are yesterday-into-this-morning water, not the Moderate Risk core.

Restoration read: extraction and drying first. Treat burn-scar and wash flooding as a same-night water job if rain is still falling on the same ZIP. Photograph only if it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Arizona through eastern New Mexico into west Texas

This is the SPC Marginal. Isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two are the official Day 1 language for this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, with southeast Arizona included on the same corridor. Population centers inside the risk area include El Paso, Tucson, Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, Odessa, and Roswell. Storm mode should trend complex or linear as coverage increases, with a few supercells possible when shear and the low-level jet increase later today.

NWS South Plains and Panhandle hazardous-weather outlooks this morning already flag multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms, flash-flood potential where cells train, wind gusts up to about 70 mph, and a brief tornado or two. Flood Watches are in play on parts of the southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains.

Restoration read: wind and water on the same ticket. Stage tarps and extractors for the South Plains and Permian Basin before late afternoon. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event.

Hotspot 3 — Northern Plains leftover and Dakotas flood slight

Monday evening’s Marginal Risk over the western and central Dakotas and central High Plains has expired. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from that window include a 77 mph gust near Kenel and a 71 mph gust near Pollock in Campbell County, South Dakota, plus 1.00-inch hail north of Belle Fourche. Those are just-hit wind and hail tickets, not a live watch.

WPC still carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota, with a Marginal Risk from northern South Dakota through North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. That is training showers on a southerly low-level jet, not a severe-watch corridor.

Just hit

Overnight and yesterday evening: flash flooding on the Arizona–Utah–Nevada border country and in the Fargo–Moorhead area; power lines down near New Kingman-Butler in Mohave County; severe gusts in Campbell County, South Dakota. Monday afternoon’s desk already had the Southwest water story in view. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is more Four Corners flooding plus the west Texas–eastern New Mexico Marginal window this afternoon and tonight.

Hurricane Polo is not a U.S. landfall. Tropical Storms Fay and Hanna are well out in the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Rachel is offshore of southwestern Mexico. None of those systems is a mainland U.S. hurricane threat this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Four Corners / SW AZ–UT–NM	Flash flood, burn-scar and wash flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood pulse; overnight FFWs expired or rolling
SE Arizona / E New Mexico / west Texas	Damaging gusts, brief tornado possible, heavy rain	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–tonight window; no watch yet
SW Texas Panhandle / South Plains	Training rain, isolated severe	Flood Watch + local HWO	Today into tonight
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight / Marginal ERO	Showers; Fargo–Moorhead just-hit water
Western/central Dakotas (overnight)	Severe gusts, small hail	Expired Marginal + LSRs	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo weakening over Sonora	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The Southwest Moderate Risk is wet drywall, silt in structures near washes, and a 24–48 hour mold clock on buildings that took water overnight. West Texas and eastern New Mexico are a wind-first desk if storms organize, with water on the same ZIPs if cells train. Dakotas gusts from last evening are already a roof-and-siding ticket in the counties that verified.

For teams near the SPC Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown remains the flood rule on every wash in the Moderate Risk.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is a Mexico landfall whose remnant moisture is already inside the Southwest forecast. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded wash in Mohave or Washington County, a wind swath through a west Texas or eastern New Mexico county, leftover urban water in Fargo. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday’s SPC Day 2 outlook already draws a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains, with damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two from west-central Texas into southwest Oklahoma as the upper low and dryline organize. Thursday stays Marginal over parts of the southern Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Guyer/Bentley); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 28–29 September; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Hurley/Wegman update and prior Campbell/Pereira discussion); National Weather Service warning text via the national watches/warnings feed; National Hurricane Center public advisory language on Hurricane Polo over the Gulf of California into Sonora.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday, September 28 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 29, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning)

Map of Arizona, southern Nevada, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico marked for Monday's moderate flood risk — Monday morning desk. Moderate flood on the Southwest and Four Corners. Not an NWS warning.

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners as tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys lifts north into already wet ground.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is still a major hurricane approaching Baja California Sur and Sonora. Restoration exposure today is water first in the Southwest, then isolated wind and hail cleanup from last night’s High Plains and north Texas cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC language at 0728 AM CDT: severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday. Isolated to scattered storms are still expected later over the northern High Plains from western Nebraska into the Dakotas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Those corridors do not carry unconditional severe probabilities on this outlook. The last issued convective watch was number 0674; nothing is live now.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, issued 0812 UTC Monday and valid 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, is the headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. Guidance supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the region, with south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans favored. Precipitable water is forecast 2 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal. Burn scars, rocky soils, and slot canyons locally raise the flood threat. The Moderate outline forks farther south in New Mexico toward the Lordsburg area and the Sacramento Mountains.

A weakening cyclone near the southern New England coast still supports showers and occasional embedded thunder along the coast. Instability is weak. That is leftover nor’easter weather, not a new severe corridor.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

This is today’s organized desk. Moisture from Polo and post-tropical Odalys is being drawn north ahead of a mid-level trough moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. Widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates should keep most storms disorganized, but rainfall rates on saturated soils do not need a supercell to fail a crossing.

Counties and terrain to watch: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys that take runoff from steep slopes. WPC notes the Moderate continues into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans before the afternoon cores. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

Hotspot 2 — Northern High Plains isolated storms

SPC keeps general thunderstorms from western Nebraska north into North Dakota. A surface trough and modest 500–1500 J/kg CAPE later this afternoon could support isolated stronger cells. Uncertainty on location and intensity is why severe probabilities stayed off the map. A southerly low-level jet may keep elevated storms going tonight.

That is the same family that produced last night’s Cherry County hail. Staff it as isolated hail and outflow, not a watch day.

Hotspot 3 — Leftover Northeast coast and north Texas cleanup

The coastal cyclone continues to weaken near southern New England. Showers and occasional thunder remain possible near the coast. Sunday’s High Wind Warnings on the Jersey Shore and Long Island are already off the morning board from yesterday’s afternoon desk. Treat remaining coastal work as leftover water and beach debris, not a new wind outbreak.

North Texas had a short severe pulse last evening over Parker County. That is a just-hit ticket, not today’s outlook.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Sunday to 1159 UTC Monday window, all preliminary:

2216 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
2330 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
0032 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
2300 UTC — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
2320 UTC — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down and outdoor items blown around on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

No tornado reports were received in that window. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that fired Sunday evening over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southwest / Four Corners	Flash flood, training heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live outlook through Tuesday 12Z
SE CA / southern NV / western AZ	Numerous showers and storms, isolated wet downburst	General thunder; no severe probs	Today into evening
Western NE into the Dakotas	Isolated strong storms, hail or gust possible	General thunder; no severe probs	Late afternoon–overnight
Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TX	Quarter hail, tree limbs	Expired SVR / LSRs	Just-hit cleanup
Southern New England coast	Showers, leftover coastal water	Weak cyclone; no severe area	Fading
Polo / Odalys	Mexico land and moisture feed, not CONUS landfall	NHC Polo major hurricane near Baja	Moisture into the Southwest

What this means for restoration teams

The national severe map is blank. That does not mean a quiet shop in Arizona, New Mexico, southwest Colorado, or southern Nevada. Moderate excessive-rainfall language on already wet soils is extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock in finished space. Burn-scar fans fail first. Stage before the afternoon moisture surge, not after the first flash-flood warning.

Cherry County and Willow Park are yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe. Sully County’s 66 mph mesonet gust and the Sutton County 60 mph gust are isolated wind, not a line.

Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

WPC keeps Moderate excessive-rainfall language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains, then into the southern Plains midweek. SPC’s next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the blank severe map lasts past sunset.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid); SPC local storm reports for 27/1200 UTC–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0812 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center advisories on Hurricane Polo and post-tropical Odalys; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon Quiet Pulse, Northeast flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 28, 2026

Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic High Wind, Southern Plains Marginal — Saturday, September 26, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 26, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet: no Storm Prediction Center convective watches are valid. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of isolated hail and strong outflow winds for western Oklahoma into northwest Texas late this afternoon into early evening. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risk pockets from southwest Iowa into northern Missouri and along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, with a broader Marginal overlay from the southern Plains into the central Plains.

The live work this morning is not a watch box. It is High Wind Warnings on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from a strengthening coastal low, leftover water in north-central Kansas where a flash-flood warning was replaced by a flood advisory, and a few overnight local storm reports. These are county-scale thunderstorms and coastal wind, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven trees and service drops on the coast, isolated hail and outflow later on the southern Plains, and interior water where yesterday’s High Plains rain is still in the channel. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC current watches: none. Most recently issued watch was 0674, already expired. The 0655 AM CDT Day 1 discussion (Smith/Bentley) is explicit: morning showers and thunderstorms over the southern High Plains should dissipate, with new storm development around 21–23 UTC (4–6 p.m. CDT). Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible mainly 22z–02z. Elsewhere, SPC calls the severe environment quiescent.

WPC valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday: Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance from roughly southwest Iowa into northern Missouri, and a second Slight along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from the Delmarva through Cape Cod and adjacent waters. A Marginal Risk covers a large southern-to-central Plains corridor plus a coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast swath.

National Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo are well out in the open Atlantic and are not a U.S. land threat this morning. Hurricane Nolo remains nearly stationary well south of the Big Island of Hawaii and is forecast to stay south of the islands; that is a Hawaii flood-and-wind desk, not a mainland landfall. Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Odalys and Polo are Mexico-waters storms, not CONUS landfalls.

Hotspot 1 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England high wind

This is the live warning desk. National Weather Service Mount Holly holds a High Wind Warning until 6:00 a.m. EDT Sunday for Delaware beaches and coastal New Jersey counties including Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and Coastal Ocean. Language: north winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph; trees and power lines; widespread outages possible. Boston/Norton holds High Wind Warnings until 8:00 a.m. EDT Sunday for eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with northeast gusts 50–60 mph on the exposed coast and 50 mph inland over Kent and Providence counties. WPC’s coastal Slight excessive-rainfall risk sits under the same system: heaviest totals preferred offshore, but localized heavy rain can still reach the Jersey Shore through southern New England.

Cities and counties to watch: Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Ocean City, Rehoboth Beach, Sandy Hook; Boston, Quincy, Plymouth, New Bedford, Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard; Providence, Warwick, Newport, Westerly.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree crews, generators, and tarp kits before the next peak gust period tonight. Treat coastal ZIPs as possible interior-water jobs if the Slight rain overlay verifies on already-wet ground. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas (afternoon Marginal)

SPC’s only categorical severe area today. A High Plains upper trough and a smaller-scale jet over the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma maintain a lee trough and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Morning convection is expected to die. New storms 21–23 UTC from south-central Kansas through western Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Adequately strong deep-layer shear supports a few organized cells capable of isolated large hail and severe outflow, mainly 22z–02z. Lubbock’s hazardous-weather outlook already flags isolated afternoon and evening storms off the Caprock with gusts to 65 mph and hail to quarter size.

Restoration read: this is a late-day hail and wind ticket, not a morning watch. Do not pre-position as if a Slight or Enhanced is up. Staff local warnings if they fire after 4 p.m. CDT.

Hotspot 3 — Leftover High Plains water and central Plains flood overlay

NWS Hastings replaced a flash-flood warning with a Flood Advisory through 1:00 p.m. CDT for parts of Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, and Smith Counties in north-central Kansas. That is yesterday’s rain still in the ditch, not a new MCS. WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk over southwest Iowa into northern Missouri and a Marginal from Oklahoma and West Texas north across Kansas toward the eastern Dakotas. Friday afternoon’s New Mexico flood pulse is no longer the national Slight; treat Cibola and Santa Fe as aftermath unless a new warning posts.

Great Falls holds a High Wind Warning until noon MDT for Glacier, Toole, and Pondera High Plains zones — westerly 30–50 mph, gusts to 70. That is a plains wind event, not the SPC Marginal.

Just hit

Overnight and Friday evening local storm reports, all preliminary: landspout near Wilmore in Comanche County, Kansas; one-inch hail that cracked windshields at Tecolote and near Romeroville in San Miguel County, New Mexico; 59–61 mph measured gusts in Liberty and Pondera Counties, Montana. Earlier Friday into last night on the Texas side of the same High Plains corridor: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, an estimated 60 mph north of Study Butte, and a roof section blown onto a road in Terlingua, Brewster County. No tornado watch fired. No convective watch is live this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Coastal NJ / DE / southern New England	Damaging wind, trees, outages, localized heavy rain	High Wind Warning + WPC Slight (coast)	Live warnings through Sunday morning
Western OK / northwest TX / south-central KS	Isolated hail, severe outflow	SPC Marginal 22z–02z	Afternoon–evening development
SW Iowa / northern Missouri	Training rain, flash flood	WPC Slight	Today into tonight
North-central Kansas (Jewell–Smith)	Residual flooding	Flood Advisory to 1 p.m. CDT	Aftermath / still in channel
Northern MT High Plains	High wind gusts to 70 mph	High Wind Warning to noon MDT	Live, expires midday
Hawaii (Nolo)	Flood watch Big Island / Maui County	NHC hurricane well south of islands	Hawaii desk only
U.S. mainland tropical	No landfalling hurricane	Fay / Gonzalo open Atlantic	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Coastal gusts of 50–60 mph are tree-on-structure, siding, gutter, and service-drop work. Stage before dark on the Jersey Shore and southern New England, not after the first outage ticket. The Oklahoma–Texas Marginal is a late-day hail and wind desk: a few cells, not a regional outbreak. Kansas flood-advisory counties are already wet — extraction and drying, not a new watch. Hawaii Nolo stays off the mainland board.

Property owners: photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown at low-water crossings in the WPC Slight counties.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a coastal wind swath through a New Jersey or Massachusetts county, a late-day hail core in western Oklahoma, leftover water in a Kansas creek. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Coastal High Wind Warnings run through early Sunday. The southern Plains Marginal is a same-day afternoon problem, not an overnight watch. SPC Day 2 language on the hazard matrix is No Severe for Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s High Wind Warning is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches (none valid); SPC local storm reports for 1200 UTC Sep 25–1159 UTC Sep 26; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid 12Z Sep 26–12Z Sep 27; National Weather Service warning text from Mount Holly, Boston/Norton, Great Falls, Hastings, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center public advisories for Nolo, Fay, and Gonzalo. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 25 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 26, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern High Plains Flood Slight, Quiet Severe Day — Friday, September 25, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Friday, September 25, 2026. The organized desk is still water on the southern High Plains, not a national wind outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, valid 251300Z–261200Z, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary language from Norman: organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. The Weather Prediction Center 12Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern High Plains — southeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and parts of West Texas.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and leftover runoff, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is water already in low crossings and buildings from last night’s New Mexico–west Texas MCS, plus isolated heavy rain if cells redevelop this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page, updated 1300 UTC Friday, states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. Yesterday evening’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook had carried a Marginal Risk over parts of the Texas Panhandle; that window closed overnight. Today’s 1300 UTC package dropped categorical severe probabilities entirely.

Overnight flash-flood warnings from Midland/Odessa, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa covered northwestern Eddy County, southwestern Chaves County, and central Otero County in New Mexico, plus southeastern El Paso County and parts of Hudspeth County in western Texas. Those products were valid into the predawn hours — Eddy and Chaves until 530 AM MDT, Otero until 730 AM MDT, El Paso extensions into 330–445 AM MDT. By this morning desk they have expired. That is the just-hit pile, not a live warning overlay.

Hotspot 1 — Southeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas

This is today’s flood ticket, trimmed from Thursday’s Moderate. WPC’s 410 AM EDT Friday discussion keeps a Slight Risk from southeastern New Mexico to the southern Panhandle and extends it south into parts of West Texas, where 3-hour flash-flood guidance is under an inch. Overnight activity over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle can still produce additional flooding concerns into mid to late morning. Guidance then has storms diminishing as the shortwave and deeper moisture lift northeast. Afternoon cells over West Texas can still dump 1–2 inches locally on already wet ground.

SPC’s Day 1 discussion notes a convectively modified disturbance over eastern New Mexico lifting toward the central High Plains, mid- and high-level clouds over western Oklahoma, and only a low-probability severe gust if a stronger storm develops late this afternoon in western Oklahoma. Southern New Mexico, in the wake of the early-day MCS, may see a couple of stronger cells with some hail risk, but confidence in a severe-caliber threat is low. That is why there is no categorical severe area this morning.

Cities and counties to watch: Artesia, Hope, Lakewood, and Brantley Lake in Eddy County; Dunken and Elk in southwestern Chaves; Sacramento, Mayhill, and Weed in Otero; Tornillo, Hueco Tanks, and rural east-central El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Streams named in overnight warning text include the Rio Penasco, Bluewater Creek, and Agua Chiquita Creek.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on structures that took overnight runoff. Low-water crossings and rural roads in the Sacramento Mountains and Pecos Valley stay a drive-around, not a drive-through. Stage pumps where last night’s warnings sat. Do not treat this as a wind event.

Hotspot 2 — Western Oklahoma scatter

SPC leaves the door cracked for a stronger storm or two late this afternoon over western Oklahoma under modest mid-level lapse rates and up to about 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with a low-probability severe gust. Cloud cover from the departing MCS and tropical-origin moisture aloft will limit heating. This is not a watch candidate at 1300 UTC. Treat it as isolated outflow and lightning, not a Plains outbreak.

Hotspot 3 — Hurricane Nolo, Big Island of Hawaii

The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are issuing advisories on Hurricane Nolo. As of the 200 AM HST Friday advisory, Nolo was near 15.8°N 155.6°W, moving north-northeast at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and a minimum pressure of 980 mb. Headline language: catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding possible on the Big Island of Hawaii into the weekend. Local NWS Honolulu products own the island warning suite. This is a Hawaii County flood-and-wind desk, not a CONUS landfall. Fay and Gonzalo in the Atlantic and Odalys and Polo in the eastern Pacific are not U.S. mainland land threats this morning.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25 window show no tornado reports and no hail reports as of this desk. One preliminary wind report: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, at 1758 UTC Thursday, relayed by NWS Lubbock. That is yesterday afternoon’s High Plains Marginal, not a new overnight severe pile.

The overnight work that did verify is water. NWS Midland issued a flash-flood warning for northwestern Eddy County until 530 AM MDT covering Artesia, Hope, Seven Rivers, Brantley Lake, Dayton, Lakewood, and Atoka. Albuquerque warned southwestern Chaves County until 530 AM MDT for Dunken and Elk, with considerable damage-threat language on the Rio Penasco and Bluewater Creek. El Paso/Santa Teresa warned central Otero County until 730 AM MDT for Sacramento, Mayhill, Weed, and several canyons, and separately warned pieces of El Paso and Hudspeth Counties where 1 to 3 inches had already fallen. Those warnings are expired this morning. Survey and extraction replace the warning overlay.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
SE NM / TX Panhandle / West Texas	Flash flood, leftover runoff, isolated heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Overnight FFWs expired; Slight still live
Western OK / southern NM cells	Isolated gust or hail, low confidence	SPC 1300 UTC: no categorical area	Afternoon scatter only
Hall County, TX (Memphis)	60 mph wind Thursday afternoon	Yesterday Marginal LSR	Just-hit / closed
Big Island, Hawaii	Flash flood, tropical wind	Hurricane Nolo, 85 mph	Live Hawaii desk
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches valid; last was 674	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Friday is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a water desk on the southern High Plains. Overnight flash flooding in Eddy, Chaves, Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth Counties is the work that already happened. Interior water starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded crossings in the Sacramento Mountains or the Pecos Valley.

Western Oklahoma and southern New Mexico may still fire isolated strong cells this afternoon. Staff that as local lightning and a possible isolated gust or hail stone, not a regional wind swath. Hawaii County is a separate tropical-flood ticket under Nolo. Do not mix that crew map with the New Mexico overnight pile.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no Day 1 severe area. No convective watch is up. Thursday’s Moderate flood risk over southeast New Mexico has been stepped down to a Slight. The work this morning is leftover water and a trimmed rainfall overlay. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook, valid 261200Z–271200Z Saturday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central and southern Plains. Summary: isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday from parts of Kansas into western Texas and Oklahoma, including the Wichita-to-Lubbock corridor. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than treating Friday’s quiet severe map as the weekend map.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, September 25, 2026; SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion issued 410 AM EDT Friday; National Weather Service flash-flood warning text from Midland/Odessa, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa overnight; National Hurricane Center / Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory on Hurricane Nolo at 200 AM HST Friday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon, September 24 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 25, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico–Plains Flood Slight, Dakotas Hail Pulse — Thursday, September 24, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Thursday, September 24, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe corridor from Wednesday’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk did verify on the Local Storm Report board — a brief tornado west of Hettinger and baseball-size hail near South Heart, North Dakota. Convective watches are not currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, valid 241200Z–251200Z, carries no categorical severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated stronger storms with hail or gusty winds remain possible late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas.

The water desk is still the national headline, not wind. Weather Prediction Center short-range language this morning keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into the south-central Plains, with a broader Marginal Risk from the Four Corners into the central Plains as leftover tropical moisture and embedded shortwaves keep training cells possible on already wet ground. These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover water in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, isolated hail and wind on the Dakotas just-hit pile, and a Hawaii watch for Tropical Storm Nolo well south of the Big Island.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, a Sunday-night eastern Colorado and western Kansas product that expired days ago. Yesterday’s western Dakotas and southern Appalachians Marginal Risk is off the Day 1 map. The 0600 UTC discussion from Guyer and Thornton is plain: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. The same discussion still flags pockets of moderate destabilization into peak heating across southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and the southern High Plains.

The SPC overview hazard matrix later this morning lists Thursday as a Marginal severe day. Treat that as the later-cycle read against the published 0600 UTC text of “no severe thunderstorm areas forecast.” Either way, this is not a watch morning. Isolated hail or a damaging gust is the ceiling unless a new outlook or mesoscale discussion draws a tighter box this afternoon.

On the flood side, Wednesday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Moderate Risk over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and central and eastern New Mexico has rolled off the valid window. Thursday language from WPC’s short-range public discussion is a step down: Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into portions of the south-central Plains, Marginal Risk across much of the Four Corners into the central Plains. Soils are still saturated. Rates, not coverage, are the problem if a cell trains.

Hotspot 1 — New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas

This remains the water desk. Overnight, National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Warning for northwestern Grant, southeastern Hamilton, western Kearny, northeastern Morton, and eastern Stanton Counties in southwestern Kansas until 5:00 a.m. CDT. Radar-indicated totals of 2 to 3 inches were already on the ground at issuance, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. That warning is off the clock this morning. It is the signature of the same moisture plume that spent midweek over New Mexico.

WPC still expects scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday as large-scale forcing weakens but instability and embedded shortwave energy remain. Portions of New Mexico and Texas stay sensitive because of the multi-day rain. Localized 1-inch-per-hour rates on burn scars, arroyos, urban streets, and low water crossings are the first failures. A separate, lower-coverage pulse is possible in southeast Arizona under the same southwesterly mid-level flow.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on buildings that took water Tuesday and Wednesday, plus a new poor-drainage ticket if a cell parks on a ZIP that already failed. Do not treat the whole Moderate-Risk footprint from yesterday as still live. Staff the county that still has a warning, not the outline from Wednesday afternoon.

Hotspot 2 — Western North Dakota just-hit pile

Wednesday afternoon’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk produced the overnight LSR pile. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports for the 1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24 window include:

A brief tornado around 2236 UTC about 3 miles south-southwest of Bucyrus in Adams County, North Dakota, based on social-media video and radar, west of Hettinger. NWS Bismarck logged the location as approximate.
Quarter-size hail (1.00 inch) at New England, Hettinger County, at 2307 UTC.
Half-dollar hail (1.25 inches) about 3 miles southeast of Belfield, Stark County, at 2340 UTC.
Baseball-size hail (2.75 inches) about 2 miles southwest of South Heart, Stark County, at 2345 UTC.

Those are official preliminary LSRs, not social rumor. Hail that size breaks windows, dents siding, and wrecks HVAC fins. The tornado report is a one-minute touchdown, not a long-track event. Restoration work there is already a survey-and-tarp job, not a new watch.

Hotspot 3 — Southern High Plains scatter plus leftover wind reports

SPC’s Day 1 discussion leaves the door open for a few stronger, locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas. That is isolated hail and gusty outflow, not a Slight Risk corridor. Yesterday’s board also carries a 58 mph thunderstorm gust 4 miles southeast of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC, and a tree down in Van Wert, Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC. Those are scatter, not a line.

Farther east, an amplifying coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic and New England is a marine and coastal-flood story, not a convective watch. WPC flags coastal flooding, rip currents, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend. That is a different desk from the New Mexico flood pulse.

Tropical — Nolo south of Hawaii, not a mainland landfall

Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday, Nolo was about 285 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and about 460 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, stationary, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 999 mb. Official language: Nolo is forecast to intensify into a hurricane late today and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. That is a Hawaii County and offshore-waters problem, not a Gulf or East Coast landfall. Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys remain in the eastern Pacific off Mexico. Tropical Storm Fay is in the open Atlantic well west-southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat.

Just hit

Wednesday’s live desk was still water over central and eastern New Mexico, with SPC trimmed to a western Dakotas Marginal. That Dakotas box verified overnight on hail and a brief tornado. The New Mexico Moderate flood risk has stepped down to Slight into the south-central Plains. Southwestern Kansas took a late-night flash-flood warning that expired at 5:00 a.m. CDT. No new convective watch fired overnight. Watch 674 is not today’s product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NM into TX/OK Panhandles and western KS	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Live flood overlay; KS FFW expired 5 a.m. CDT
SE AZ / southern NM / southern High Plains	Isolated hail, gusty wind, heavy rain	SPC 0600 UTC: no categorical area; isolated stronger storms possible	Afternoon–evening scatter
Western ND (Hettinger / Stark)	Hail damage, brief tornado	Yesterday Marginal; LSRs in	Just-hit / survey
Four Corners to central Plains	Isolated heavy rain	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Diurnal cells
East Coast marine / New England coast	Coastal flood, wind, heavy rain	WPC / OPC coastal low	Not a convective watch
Hawaii — Nolo	Tropical storm to hurricane risk south of the islands	CPHC TS Nolo, 50 mph	Watch Hawaii products, not mainland
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and the southern High Plains are still a water week. Saturated ground plus another Slight Risk means the next training cell is a wet-drywall and crawlspace ticket, not a surprise. Photograph and extract what already flooded before you chase a new ZIP. Southwestern Kansas counties that sat under last night’s warning should be treated as just-hit poor-drainage work until local offices drop the flood language.

Western North Dakota is a hail desk. Baseball stone southwest of South Heart is broken glass and bruised roofs. The Adams County tornado report is a narrow path. Staff it as a local damage survey. Do not read “tornado” on an LSR board as a regional event.

If the later SPC cycle firms a Marginal box over the southern High Plains, the work is still isolated hail and outflow, not a watch. Stage tarps only where a warning is live. Hawaii shops should follow Central Pacific Hurricane Center products on Nolo, not this CONUS flood pulse.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo and Odalys are eastern Pacific storms off Mexico. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Nolo is a Central Pacific storm still south of the Big Island. The CONUS work this morning is leftover flood water, a North Dakota hail pile, and a quiet watch board.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2, valid Friday, currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC still sees the moisture axis shifting east Friday into the south-central Plains and Midwest with another heavy-rain overlay possible. SPC Day 3 language returns a Marginal Risk later in the weekend as an upper trough works the central United States. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming Thursday’s quiet watch board is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, September 24, 2026; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0705 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports for 20260923 1200 UTC–20260924 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and short-range public discussion valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Saturday; National Weather Service Dodge City flash-flood warning text for southwestern Kansas; Central Pacific Hurricane Center / National Hurricane Center public products on Tropical Storm Nolo as of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Western Dakotas Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 24, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Dakotas–Appalachians Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the flood desk ran ahead of the severe desk: National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for El Paso County, Texas; Amelia, Cumberland, and Powhatan counties in central Virginia; and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave / Chimney Rock. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas, leftover street and creek flooding in central Virginia and the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts this afternoon if the two Marginal corridors heat. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 231300Z–241200Z) places a Marginal Risk over parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians. Summary: isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across those two corridors. Western Dakotas: mid-level trough moving out of Wyoming/Montana, lee trough, moisture plume off the High Plains, around 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE, isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. Southern Appalachians: mid-level vorticity maximum sliding southeast from the lower Ohio Valley; dewpoints in the 60s °F; 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE if heating wins against low cloud; strong to locally damaging gusts with the stronger cells. Hail probabilities were removed after the 12 UTC Nashville sounding showed poor 700–500 mb lapse rates (4.8 °C/km).

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods are expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. A widespread 1–2 inches is generally expected, with localized 2–4 inch swaths likely on top of rain that already fell before 12Z. The Slight risk extends into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas if storms propagate east. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk and the national headline. A well-defined mid-level shortwave lifts north-northeast across New Mexico with robust upper divergence and the chance of a weak surface low. Cloud cover is the limiter; daytime heating on the eastern edge of the rain shield plus easterly upslope should still support training cells in deep southerly flow. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% across the eastern half of the Moderate area. Overnight El Paso County already took radar-indicated 0.5–1.5 inch bursts and flash-flood warnings that expired before dawn.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the afternoon/evening cores organize. Burn-scar runoff and arroyos fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown — most flood deaths are in vehicles.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians / eastern Tennessee

Dual desk: SPC Marginal for isolated damaging gusts, WPC Slight for flash flood on wet ground from eastern Kentucky through eastern Tennessee into far western North Carolina. Extensive low cloud this morning is the uncertainty. If breaks allow 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE, multicells along the inverted trough can put down strong gusts around peak heating. HREF/REFS neighborhood flash-flood-guidance exceedance peaks over eastern Tennessee (above 40% in spots). Overnight, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg held a flash-flood warning into 5:45 a.m. EDT for southeastern Buncombe, northeastern Henderson, southwestern McDowell, northwestern Polk, and northwestern Rutherford counties — 2.5–4 inches already down, waters receding by 3:05 a.m. EDT, Rocky Broad near Bat Cave falling through 6.58 feet.

Restoration read: leftover water plus a second-chance afternoon pulse. Do not treat receding creeks as closed. Stage extractors in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina; tree and tarp crews only if the gusty cells actually fire.

Hotspot 3 — Western Dakotas

New SPC Marginal added on the 1300 UTC outlook. Mid-level trough crossing Wyoming/Montana reaches the western Dakotas late afternoon and deamplifies toward the Red River Valley by Thursday morning. Lee trough holds a moisture plume north from the central High Plains. Widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and lee trough this afternoon; isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. No major population centers sit inside the 5% hail contour.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work the Black Hills / western Dakota corridor. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.

Just hit

Overnight flood, not overnight severe. NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa issued flash-flood warnings for northwestern and central El Paso County into the small hours (radar 0.5–1.5 inches, additional 0.5–1 inch possible; warnings through 3:15 a.m. MDT). Otero Mesa / northwest of Dell City had 2.5–3 inches radar-estimated earlier in the night with rural-road flooding held off Dell City by retention dams. NWS Wakefield: up to 4 inches since 11 p.m. in northwestern Amelia County and up to 5.5 inches since 10 p.m. in western Powhatan County; warnings through 4:00–5:30 a.m. EDT. Western North Carolina pulse receding after 2.5–4 inches.

SPC local storm reports for the 22/1200Z–23/1159Z window carried no tornado and no hail. Wind reports from late Tuesday afternoon remain on the board for Lauderdale County, Alabama (Lexington / Rogersville): power lines down, a brush fire, and a power pole/lines on a vehicle — already noted on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk. Do not invent additional LSR points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central / eastern NM and far west TX	Flash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate	Live flood desk today–Thu 12Z
Southeast AZ	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Today
Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NC	Flash flood + isolated damaging gusts	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening
Western Dakotas / Black Hills	Isolated hail / gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–early evening
OH into WV / western VA–NC	Localized flash flood on wet soils	WPC Marginal	Today
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
El Paso / central VA / WNC overnight	Flash flood (expired/expiring FFWs)	Overnight NWS warnings	Aftermath / receding
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling named cyclone	NHC quiet for CONUS land	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and far west Texas remain water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Central Virginia and western North Carolina are aftermath from last night plus a second-chance flood axis this afternoon in eastern Tennessee. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated. Do not treat receding overnight warnings as a closed book; soils are primed. Stage before the New Mexico afternoon cores. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin at this hour. Hurricane Polo (Category 4, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (eastern Pacific, well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is a Central Pacific system near Hawaii, not a mainland U.S. landfall. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: New Mexico flash flood, leftover Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian water, isolated Dakotas hail/wind, isolated southern Appalachian gusts.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel today’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s two Marginal corridors. Day 4–8 language is only a possible localized Plains/Mid-Mississippi threat next Monday–Wednesday with weak shear — too unclear for probabilities. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Chenard); NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa, Wakefield, and Greenville-Spartanburg flash-flood products overnight; SPC local storm reports (Lauderdale County, Alabama wind from Tuesday afternoon); NHC Atlantic discussion 1215 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 23, 2026