Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-23-morning: Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas (roughly 82,400 sq mi, 2.4 million people). Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; the environment is becoming less conducive with decreasing buoyancy and nocturnal cooling.
No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 (most recently issued) has expired. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect. The organized severe window is closing.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0057 UTC Saturday October 24 / discussion 8:57 PM EDT Friday, valid 01Z–12Z October 24) continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Hurricane Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~110 mph, ~12.0°N 102.6°W) continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Atlantic quiet; no tropical cyclones.
The categorical severe lane remains at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane holds at Slight. Quiet Pulse is open.
Live Status
As of this Friday afternoon desk, October 23, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 24 / 0414Z October 24), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Scattered thunderstorms organized into a mix of supercells and clusters earlier, with hail and severe gusts the primary risks. The severe threat is becoming increasingly isolated as nocturnal cooling sets in. No watches are valid.
WPC Day 1 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the same general region. Locally heavy rainfall rates remain possible in intense cells, with isolated flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. The tropical lane is closed for U.S. impact.
Hotspots
Central and western New Mexico / far west Texas: Marginal severe risk. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso areas included in the footprint. Isolated hail and wind possible this evening. Threat diminishing. Prior Watch 696 has expired.
Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Marginal severe overlapping Slight excessive rainfall risk. Terrain-driven heavy rain possible. Residual flash-flood sensitivity from prior activity. Highest concern on burn scars and steep slopes.
Far west Texas (El Paso corridor): Included in both the Marginal severe and Slight flood areas. Straight hodographs earlier favored splitting supercells with hail as the main threat. Activity winding down.
Just-Hit
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 was active earlier today until 9 PM MDT. Special Weather Statements and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued this afternoon for strong storms producing nickel-size hail and gusts near 50–60 mph in the Albuquerque metro vicinity and other New Mexico counties. Preliminary local storm reports include hail and wind gusts, primarily outside the core NM area in adjacent states. Flash Flood Warnings active earlier in portions of New Mexico. No widespread major damage reports confirmed at this desk time; isolated hail and wind impacts likely. Prior overnight Moderate flood activity produced verified flash flooding in the Four Corners high terrain.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 24 2026)
Tropical
None
No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Hurricane Vance far south of Mexico (~110 mph). No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. Atlantic quiet.
Severe
Marginal
SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal over portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX (~82k sq mi). Isolated hail, gusts, perhaps a tornado this evening. No watches or MDs valid. Threat diminishing.
Flood
Slight
WPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. No Moderate or higher.
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable
Restoration Read
Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind under the earlier Slight Risk and now-expired Watch 696. Isolated roof, vehicle and vegetation damage possible from large hail and gusts. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor for any remaining Severe Thunderstorm Warnings or Flash Flood Warnings.
What This Is Not
This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC as of the afternoon update. SPC holds Marginal. WPC holds Slight excessive rainfall. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Quiet Pulse is open.
Looking Ahead
Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. The severe threat continues to diminish overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon and evening. Residual runoff possible in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.
Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.
Compared with the October 23 afternoon desk pulse table (Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; threat becoming more isolated with nocturnal cooling.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 has expired. SPC reports no watches currently valid. The most recent was #696 for central and western New Mexico and far west Texas, which covered until 9:00 PM MDT. Primary threats were scattered large hail (isolated to 3 inches) and scattered damaging winds to 70 mph.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, far west Texas and southern Colorado (updated ~0806 UTC October 23, valid 12Z Oct 23–12Z Oct 24). Broader Marginal Risk surrounds it. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from earlier rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
NHC: No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Hurricane Vance remains well south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific, not threatening U.S. land. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
Severe lane holds at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane unchanged at Slight. Watch 696 closed. Quiet Pulse remains open. Dominant residual restoration ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind.
Live Status
As of this Friday evening update to the October 23 morning desk (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 12:15 AM EDT / 0415Z October 24, with products valid through the Day 1 period ending 12Z Saturday), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The latest SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk covering roughly 82,000 square miles and about 2.4 million people, including El Paso TX, Albuquerque NM, Las Cruces NM, Santa Fe NM and Rio Rancho NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening. The environment is becoming less conducive with nocturnal cooling and decreasing buoyancy; the severe threat becomes increasingly more isolated and focused tonight.
WPC Day 1 places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico, far west Texas and southern Colorado. Soils in southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico remain somewhat sensitive from prior heavy rainfall. Locally heavy rates of 1–1.5 inches per hour possible in intense cells, with highest totals favored in northern New Mexico where terrain focuses convection. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. Broader Marginal Risk covers much of New Mexico and southern Colorado.
The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. No named systems threaten the coast or Gulf. Hurricane Vance remains far south in the Eastern Pacific, not affecting the United States. No U.S. watches or warnings are in effect. SPC confirms no convective watches currently valid.
Hotspots
Central and western New Mexico and far west Texas: Residual Marginal severe threat this evening after Watch 696 expiration. Earlier supercells and clusters capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds to 70 mph. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso metros were included. Isolated tornado possible but low probability. Threat diminishing overnight.
Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Slight excessive rainfall risk overlapping residual severe potential. Terrain-driven heavy rain rates possible; residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. Flash flood potential highest in mountains, burn scars and urban corridors near Albuquerque.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 0415Z Oct 24 2026)
Tropical
None
No tropical cyclones in Atlantic. Hurricane Vance (EPAC) far south of Mexico, not threatening U.S. land. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings.
Severe
Marginal
SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal for NM, southern CO and far west TX. Isolated large hail, severe gusts, perhaps tornado this evening. Watch 696 expired. No watches currently valid.
Flood
Slight
WPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, far west TX and southern CO. Marginal broader. Residual sensitivity from earlier rainfall. No Moderate or higher.
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable
Restoration Read
Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas severe under the now-expired Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696: large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor official sources for any lingering Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings.
What This Is Not
This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC. A Marginal severe risk covers portions of New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Slight excessive rainfall risk covers portions of the same region. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Watch 696 has expired. Quiet Pulse is open.
Looking Ahead
Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. WPC continues excessive rainfall potential as the trough progresses. The severe threat diminishes overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon/evening. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land. Residual runoff continues in sensitive basins.
Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.
Compared with the morning desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-15-morning), WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0644 UTC / 2:44 AM EDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 12Z Thu–12Z Fri) continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of west Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Lower Pecos / Concho Valley). No category change. Focus remains on the southwest shift from the prior central Oklahoma Moderate.
Active Flash Flood Warnings issued this morning by NWS Norman for parts of northern Texas (southeastern Wichita County including Wichita Falls/Sheppard AFB, and central Foard / southeastern Hardeman / northwestern Wilbarger counties) with 1–4 inches already fallen and additional heavy rain possible until late morning. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for west-central Texas (including San Angelo, Abilene, Tom Green, Taylor and surrounding counties) and residual across much of Oklahoma.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC / 7:52 AM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 151300Z–161200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys (isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). No Slight or higher. No convective watches currently valid; Watch 685 expired overnight. No change in severe category from the morning desk.
High Wind Warnings remain in effect across southern California (Inland Empire, San Diego County mountains and valleys, Santa Ana Mountains and foothills) with northeast gusts to 65–70 mph possible through Saturday, and in New Mexico (Albuquerque metro and southern valleys). Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the Sierra Nevada and central/northern California. These are non-convective wind and fire-weather products.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic basin quiet. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (rapidly intensifying, Tropical Storm Watch for Mexican coast) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
Live Status
As of the Thursday afternoon desk, October 15, 2026 (approximately 8:20 AM PDT / 10:20 AM CDT / 1520Z), the dominant threat remains the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over west Texas under anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record) and a slowing cold front. Active Flash Flood Warnings are live this morning over northern Texas near Wichita Falls. SPC Day 1 is Marginal only over the Ohio Valley with no watches. Flood Watches cover residual saturated ground across Oklahoma and expanding west-central Texas. High Wind Warnings are in force across parts of southern California and New Mexico but are non-severe.
Hotspots
West Texas Moderate ERO: WPC Day 1 maintains Moderate Risk from just east of Big Bend along the Rio Grande across the Stockton Plateau to the Pecos River Valley and north past the I-10 corridor into the Concho Valley. Areal averages 3–5 inches with local maxima higher possible along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains. Highest concern for flash flooding in poor drainage, low-water crossings, and urban areas of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos. Flood Watches through Friday morning cover much of this corridor including San Angelo and Abilene areas.
Northern Texas active Flash Flood Warnings: NWS Norman issued Flash Flood Warnings this morning for southeastern Wichita County (Wichita Falls, Sheppard AFB) until ~10:45 AM CDT with 2–4 inches already fallen, and for portions of Foard, Hardeman, and Wilbarger counties until noon CDT with 1–2 inches observed and up to 2 inches additional possible. Radar-indicated heavy rain ongoing. Turn around, don’t drown remains the immediate message.
Ohio Valley Marginal severe: SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk covers portions of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys including Indianapolis, Columbus, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Akron. Isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado possible this afternoon and evening near the warm front under modest buoyancy and strong shear. No watches. Overnight LSRs included scattered tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia.
Just Hit
Overnight into early Thursday, LSRs through approximately 0418 UTC documented damaging wind gusts of 60–75 mph across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (power lines, sheet metal, trees). Residual flooding and saturated soils persist across central and southwestern Oklahoma from prior training convection under the previous Moderate ERO. No new convective watches issued this morning.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~8:20 AM PDT / 10:20 AM CDT / 1520Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical
None
No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy and TS Simon offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe
Marginal
SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk Ohio Valley (isolated wind / brief tornado). No watches. Overnight LSRs mainly wind damage TX/OK and trees OH/WV. Slight Risk closed overnight.
Flood
Moderate
WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk west Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Pecos / Concho). Active FFWs northern TX (Wichita Falls area). Flood Watches ongoing OK and west-central TX.
Other
Wind / Fire
High Wind Warnings southern CA and NM. Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe wind and fire weather.
Restoration Read
Primary ticket is water over west Texas under the continuing Moderate ERO, with active Flash Flood Warnings this morning near Wichita Falls and expanding Flood Watches into west-central Texas. Residual flooding and saturated ground across central and southwestern Oklahoma from overnight training convection support additional extraction and drying claims. Wind damage claims possible from overnight gusts in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (power lines, sheet metal, trees). Ohio Valley Marginal supports only isolated tree or minor wind claims if storms organize this afternoon. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate from convective restoration.
What This Is Not
This is not a Quiet Pulse. The Moderate ERO over west Texas and active Flash Flood Warnings in northern Texas keep the flood lane open. Severe remains Marginal only with no watches. No U.S. tropical threat.
Rising queries
Trends unreachable.
Looking Ahead One Day
SPC Day 2 outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of the Mid-Atlantic for Friday afternoon and evening (damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). WPC Day 2 carries a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of west Texas continuing the front’s slower progression. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:20 AM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts. Turn around, don’t drown.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:49 PM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 160100Z–161200Z) holds a Marginal Risk for parts of southern Indiana into Ohio. A small storm cluster continues across southern IN near the surface trough and warm front; locally damaging wind and a brief tornado remain possible this evening before increasing low-level stability diminishes the threat. No category change from the morning desk; prior Slight Risk has closed.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas (Big Bend / Lower Trans-Pecos / Stockton Plateau into Concho Valley, along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains). High neighborhood probabilities above 70 percent for amounts exceeding 5 inches remain centered in the Moderate area. Category unchanged; strongest overnight signal persists.
Residual Tornado Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for southwestern Indiana and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning near Fort Worth TX have expired. Flash Flood Warning for Nolan/Taylor Counties TX expired. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for much of west-central and western Texas. No new convective watches issued. No mesoscale discussions in effect.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no named systems and no formation expected in the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land or Gulf threat. Tropical lane unchanged.
Nothing else material shifted since the morning pulse. Severe residual is diminishing as expected; flood Moderate holds as the primary overnight driver.
Live Status
As of the Thursday afternoon desk, October 15, 2026 (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM CDT / 0415Z October 16), the dominant restoration ticket remains the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over West Texas. Anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record seasonal values, +2 to +3 standard deviations) and a southward-progressing cold front continue to support heavy convective rainfall this evening into the overnight, with the strongest signal for areal averages of 3–5 inches (local higher, pockets of >5 inches) along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains into the Lower Pecos River basin (Sanderson to north of Del Rio) and northward into the Concho Valley. Flood Watches remain in effect through Friday morning across west-central and western Texas.
SPC Day 1 holds a Marginal Risk over parts of southern Indiana into Ohio for the remainder of the period. The small storm cluster near the surface trough and warm front continues to support localized strong/damaging gusts and a possible brief tornado this evening. Surface-based buoyancy becomes increasingly scant with time and northeastward extent; the threat is expected to diminish as convection becomes elevated and low-level stability increases later this evening. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that were live earlier have expired. Limited residual severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front in northwest Texas has also diminished. No mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Overall intensity is waning.
Hotspots
West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Lower Pecos / Concho Valley including San Angelo vicinity): Primary Moderate Risk zone. Focused heavy rainfall expected this evening into tonight as the front progresses and nocturnal low-level jet enhances convergence. Flash flooding of creeks, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor-drainage areas is the main concern. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities remain high (above 70 percent) for amounts exceeding 5 inches centered within the Moderate area. Areal averages 3–5″ with locally higher possible. Flood Watches continue.
Southwest Indiana (Knox / Daviess Counties) into southern Ohio: Residual Marginal Risk. Small storm cluster near surface trough/warm front with modest buoyancy and favorable low-level shear supported brief tornado or damaging wind potential this evening. Threat is diminishing as convection elevates and stability increases. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that confirmed radar-indicated rotation and 60 mph gusts have expired. No watches.
Northwest and residual northern Texas (Fort Worth area, residual northern counties): Residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning for 60 mph wind gusts has expired. Limited organized severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front has diminished. Preliminary LSRs include tree and roof damage near Millsap and power lines down near Weatherford in Parker County TX this evening. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning across west-central Texas with saturated soils elevating residual flash flood risk for any additional cells.
Just-Hit
Overnight and early-morning convection across the southern Plains produced damaging wind reports (gusts 60–75 mph, power lines down, sheet metal and tree damage) in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma, plus scattered tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia. Flash flooding occurred or was radar-indicated in multiple northern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma counties this morning, with 1–4+ inches fallen in warned areas. Residual river rises possible on smaller basins. Preliminary tornado report earlier near Fort Stockton TX remains under survey. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings confirmed radar-indicated threats over southwestern Indiana and residual Texas this evening; those warnings have expired. No new confirmed tornadoes reported in the latest window. Slight Risk closed overnight and reopened farther northeast before reducing to Marginal this evening.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM CDT / 0415Z 16 Oct 2026)
Tropical
None
No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; no formation expected next 7 days. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and TS Simon offshore, no U.S. impact. Hurricane Warnings in Mexican offshore waters only.
Severe
Marginal
SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southern IN into OH (localized strong/damaging gusts and possible brief tornado this evening). Prior Slight reduced. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings expired. No watches valid. Threat diminishing after late evening. No current MDs.
Flood
Moderate
WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton / Lower Pecos / Concho). Slight broader TX into southern OK. Residual FFW Nolan/Taylor expired. Flood Watches through Friday morning west-central TX and residual OK. Overnight heavy rain signal remains strong.
Other
Wind / Fire
High Wind Warnings AZ/NM/TX mountains and CA (gusts 50–70 mph). Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe products. Separate from convective restoration.
Restoration Read
Primary restoration ticket is water and flash flooding over West Texas under the Moderate ERO, with potential for considerable flash flooding on complex terrain, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor drainage where training occurs under elevated PWATs and frontal convergence. Residual saturated ground and Flood Watches continue across Oklahoma and northern Texas from the prior Moderate axis. Overnight and residual wind damage claims remain possible from earlier 60 mph gusts in northwest Texas and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The Midwest Marginal supports only isolated tree, power line, or minor structural wind claims as residual storms continue this evening near the warm front; any tornado claims would be brief and localized. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate non-convective events and do not drive the same restoration response.
Rising queries
Trends unreachable.
What This Is Not
This is not a Quiet Pulse. WPC Moderate Risk remains live over West Texas and SPC holds a Marginal Risk over the Midwest with residual threats diminishing. Not a higher-end severe day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a named-storm hub update (no U.S.-threatening cyclone).
Looking Ahead One Day
SPC Day 2 outlook carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England for Friday afternoon and evening (scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado accompanying a squall line). WPC Day 2 continues a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas as the front progresses, with the heavy rain threat lingering into early Friday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov, 0100 UTC update), WPC Day 1 ERO discussion (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS WWA summary (weather.gov/wwamap). Morning desk: Storm Updates: West TX Flood — Oct 15 Morning.
Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:15 PM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:49 PM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 160100Z–161200Z) holds a Marginal Risk for parts of southern Indiana into Ohio. A small storm cluster continues across southern IN near the surface trough and warm front; locally damaging wind and a brief tornado remain possible this evening before increasing low-level stability diminishes the threat. No category change from the prior version of this morning desk; prior Slight Risk has closed.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1601 UTC / 12:01 PM EDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 16Z Thu–12Z Fri) continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas (Big Bend / Lower Trans-Pecos / Stockton Plateau into Concho Valley, along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains). High neighborhood probabilities above 70 percent for amounts exceeding 5 inches remain centered in the Moderate area. Slight Risk covers broader southwest Texas into southern Oklahoma. Category unchanged.
NWS residual activity: Tornado Warning earlier for east central Knox and central Daviess Counties in southwestern Indiana (radar-indicated). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings residual for portions of northwestern Johnson, southeastern Parker, southwestern Tarrant and northeastern Hood Counties in Texas (near Fort Worth) and for central Knox and Daviess Counties in Indiana. Flash Flood Warning residual for southeastern Nolan and southwestern Taylor Counties in west central Texas. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for much of west-central and western Texas. No convective watches currently valid (most recent was Watch 685, expired).
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no named systems and no formation expected in the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (intensifying, Hurricane Warnings for Mexican offshore waters) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land or Gulf threat. Tropical lane unchanged.
Severe lane holds Marginal as residual warnings confirm the earlier threat over southwestern Indiana and residual Texas activity near Fort Worth. Flood lane remains Moderate with residual Flash Flood Warning in west central Texas and ongoing Flood Watches. No new watches issued.
Live Status
As of the Thursday morning desk update, October 15, 2026 (approximately 8:13 PM PDT / 10:13 PM CDT / 0313Z October 16), two open lanes remain active. The dominant restoration ticket remains the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over West Texas. Anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record seasonal values, +2 to +3 standard deviations) and a southward-progressing cold front continue to support heavy convective rainfall, with the strongest signal for areal averages of 3–5 inches (local higher, pockets of >5 inches) along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains into the Lower Pecos River basin (Sanderson to north of Del Rio) and northward into the Concho Valley. Residual Flash Flood Warning activity and active Flood Watches cover west-central and western Texas. A more immediate high-end Slight threat exists in northwest Texas where soils are saturated and FFGs are low.
SPC Day 1 now holds only a Marginal Risk over parts of southern Indiana into Ohio for the remainder of the period. A small storm cluster has been ongoing across southern IN near the intersection of a surface trough and warm front. As a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and deepening surface low move across the Great Lakes this evening, the warm front continues northward. Modest buoyancy allows maintenance of convection through parts of OH into the Lower Great Lakes, though surface-based buoyancy becomes increasingly scant. In the short term, locally damaging wind was possible with the strongest storms, and favorable low-level shear supported a brief-tornado threat that is diminishing as convection becomes elevated. Residual Tornado Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings confirmed the threat over southwestern Indiana earlier. North/West Texas has a more limited severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front with mainly stronger wind gusts possible but organized severe expected to remain limited; residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning near Fort Worth. Overall storm intensity is expected to wane with increasing low-level stability later this evening. No watches are currently valid.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~8:13 PM PDT / 10:13 PM CDT / 0313Z 16 Oct 2026)
Tropical
None
No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; no formation expected next 7 days. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and TS Simon offshore, no U.S. impact. Hurricane Warnings in Mexican offshore waters only.
Severe
Marginal
SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southern IN into OH (localized strong/damaging gusts and possible brief tornado this evening). Prior Slight reduced. Residual Tornado Warning Knox/Daviess IN; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings IN and residual TX (Fort Worth area). No watches valid. Threat diminishing after sunset.
Flood
Moderate
WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton / Lower Pecos / Concho). Slight broader TX into southern OK. Residual FFW Nolan/Taylor Counties TX. Flood Watches through Friday morning west-central TX and residual OK. Near-term high-end Slight northwest TX.
Other
Wind / Fire
High Wind Warnings AZ/NM/TX mountains and CA (gusts 50–70 mph). Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe products. Separate from convective restoration.
Restoration Read
Primary restoration ticket is water and flash flooding over West Texas under the Moderate ERO, with potential for considerable flash flooding on complex terrain, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor drainage where training occurs under elevated PWATs and frontal convergence. Residual saturated ground and Flood Watches continue across Oklahoma from the prior Moderate axis. Overnight and ongoing wind damage claims remain possible from 60 mph gusts in northwest Texas and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The Midwest Marginal supports isolated tree, power line, or minor structural wind claims as storms continue this evening near the warm front; tornado claims would be brief and localized if they materialize, with residual Tornado Warning confirming the radar-indicated threat over southwestern Indiana. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate non-convective events and do not drive the same restoration response.
Rising queries
Trends unreachable.
Looking Ahead One Day
SPC Day 2 outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of the Mid-Atlantic for Friday afternoon and evening (scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). WPC Day 2 continues a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas as the front progresses, with the heavy rain threat lingering into early Friday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov, 0100 UTC update), WPC Day 1 ERO discussion (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, 1601 UTC update), NWS WWA summary including residual Tornado Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warning (weather.gov/wwamap), SPC current watches page (no watches valid). Previous desk: prior version of this morning pulse. Updated in place on slug quiet-pulse-2026-10-15-morning.
Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:13 PM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.
Compared with the morning desk, SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, valid 150100Z–151200Z) continues the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. No category change. Linear segments along the cold front continue producing damaging wind gusts into the late evening across southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas under Watch 685.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #685 remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT / 0400 UTC October 15 for portions of southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Mesoscale Discussion 2377 (issued ~0835 PM CDT) and subsequent status messages note a well-defined QLCS with bowing segment and embedded mesovortex advancing along the Red River Valley, supporting a locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and a brief tornado. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue with radar-indicated gusts to 60–80 mph as of late evening.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC Thursday, October 15, 2026) maintains the Moderate Risk across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. Record October PWAT of 2.23 inches at OUN continues to support efficient rates. Additional rainfall of 3–5 inches (local maxima toward 8 inches) remains possible on top of already observed 3–11 inch totals, with highest concern for the Oklahoma City metro and I-40 corridor. Category unchanged.
NWS Norman maintains multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings across the Oklahoma City metro (Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland and adjacent counties) and western/central Oklahoma. Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Simon (weakening) and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.
Preliminary SPC LSRs through late evening include continued wind damage reports in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (gusts 60–65 mph, sheet metal, roof damage), earlier tornado near Fort Stockton TX, and hail to 1.75 inches near Crowell TX. No new category shifts.
Live Status
As of the Wednesday afternoon desk, October 14, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM CDT / 0414Z October 15), the dominant threat remains the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over central Oklahoma and the Red River Valley, with training convection under anomalous precipitable water. SPC Slight Risk and Watch 685 support organized severe potential this evening into the late hours across southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas, with linear/QLCS mode producing damaging winds. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue. Flash Flood Warnings remain live across the Oklahoma City metro and western Oklahoma.
Hotspots
Central Oklahoma / Red River Valley (flood): WPC Moderate Risk. Multi-round training thunderstorms along the outflow boundary and front. High-resolution guidance continues elevated probabilities for additional 3–5 inches (local maxima toward 8 inches) on top of the 3–11 inches already observed, especially along the I-40 corridor west of Oklahoma City and across the metro. Record PWAT values support efficient rainfall rates. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings covering the Oklahoma City metro with reports of widespread flooding of streets, underpasses, and low-lying areas. Flood Watches through Thursday afternoon.
Southwest Oklahoma / west and northwest Texas (severe): SPC Slight Risk under Watch 685 (until 11 PM CDT). Linear segments and QLCS along the front are producing damaging wind gusts (radar-indicated 60–80 mph) this evening, with the threat spreading northeast. Effective shear supports organization. Tornado threat remains low but non-zero (brief QLCS possible per MD 2377). Preliminary tornado report 3 NE Fort Stockton, Pecos County, TX earlier today; hail to 1.75 inches near Crowell, TX and multiple wind damage reports in west/northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.
Ohio Valley residual: SPC Marginal Risk for isolated damaging wind gusts with residual convection from southern Kentucky into the northern Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley. Secondary to the Plains focus. Tree damage reports received earlier in Ohio and West Virginia.
Just Hit
Overnight and early-morning rainfall produced areal averages of 3–4 inches across central Oklahoma west-southwest into the southeastern Texas Panhandle, with local totals of 6–8+ inches west of Oklahoma City and reports reaching 9–11 inches in western counties (near Elk City, Hinton, Okarche corridor). Media and radar confirmed widespread flash flooding in the Oklahoma City metro. Today’s preliminary LSRs include a tornado 3 NE Fort Stockton (Pecos County, TX), hail to 1.75 inches 4 SW Crowell (Foard County, TX), wind gusts to 75 mph in Martin County, TX, power lines down in Midland County, TX, roof and sheet metal damage in northwest Texas, and tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM CDT / 0414Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical
None
No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: TS Simon (weakening) and TS Trudy offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe
Slight
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk southern Plains. Watch 685 (SW OK / W-NW TX) valid until 11 PM CDT. QLCS/linear segments producing damaging winds this evening. Active SVR warnings. Primary: damaging wind / large hail; brief tornado possible.
Flood
Moderate
WPC Day 1 Moderate ERO central OK / Red River Valley TX. Active FFWs/Flood Warnings OKC metro and west OK. Record PWAT 2.23″ OUN. Additional 3–5″ possible on already 3–11″ totals. Flood Watches thru Thu.
Restoration Read
Water tickets dominate under the Moderate Risk and active Flash Flood/Flood Warnings. Extraction, drying, and access work continues in central and western Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City metro, and residual areas of southwestern Texas. Evening severe potential under the SPC Slight Risk and Watch 685 adds hail and wind claims if line segments organize further across southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level warnings before deploying; do not staff as a hurricane response. Turn around, don’t drown remains the immediate public message on flooded roads.
What This Is Not
This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685, and WPC Moderate Risk remain in effect. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. No named storm hub update required this run.
Looking Ahead One Day
SPC Day 2 outlook carries only a Marginal Risk over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The multi-day heavy rain window continues into Thursday under residual moisture and frontal progression. Monitor for additional Flash Flood Warnings as training develops overnight into Thursday, and for Watch 685 status through 11 PM CDT.
Rising queries
Trends unreachable. Residual public interest centers on Oklahoma City flooding, flash flood warnings, and severe thunderstorms across the Plains.
Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:14 PM PDT on October 14, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.
Compared with the prior version of this morning desk and the October 13 afternoon pulse (Slight severe / Slight flood), the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas (latest discussion 0020 UTC / 7:20 PM CDT October 14, valid through 12Z October 15). Greatest probabilities for additional 3”/5”/8” remain centered on central Oklahoma including the Oklahoma City metro. Category unchanged.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook updated 0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026 (valid 150100Z–151200Z) maintains the Slight Risk across parts of the southern Plains. Primary evening threat remains severe wind gusts from linear segments along the cold front in northwest Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma, with a marginal residual into the Ozarks and southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. No category change.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #685 remains in effect until 0400 UTC / 11:00 PM CDT October 15 for portions of southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Status reports and Mesoscale Discussion 2377 confirm the severe weather threat continues, including a QLCS with bowing segment and embedded mesovortex along the Red River Valley. Primary threats: damaging winds (isolated to 75 mph), large hail (isolated to 2 inches), tornado or two possible. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60–80 mph wind threats continue in northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma as of late evening.
Multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active from NWS Norman across the Oklahoma City metro and western/central Oklahoma (3–6+ inches already fallen, locally 4–11 inches west near Elk City/I-40 and Canadian/Kingfisher counties), plus residual FFWs in northwestern Texas (Lubbock) and parts of Ohio/West Virginia. Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Record October PWAT 2.23 inches at 12Z OUN. Canadian River near Bridgeport forecast upgraded to major flooding earlier.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic quiet; Eastern Pacific Hurricane Simon (weakening) and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM CDT / 0412Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical
None
No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: Hurricane Simon (weakening) and TS Trudy offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe
Slight
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk southern Plains (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT update). Watch 685 (SW OK / W-NW TX until 11 PM CDT) still live; QLCS bow and mesovortex per MD 2377. Active SVRs with 60–80 mph winds, hail, tornado possible in TX/OK. Marginal wind risk Ozarks and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
Flood
Moderate
WPC Day 1 Moderate ERO central OK into Red River Valley TX. Active FFWs/Flood Warnings in OKC metro, western OK, residual TX and WV/OH. Flood Watches through Thursday. Record PWATs. Additional 3–5″ possible (local 8″) on top of observed 3–11″ totals. Major flooding forecast on Canadian River.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook
The latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, updated 0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and valid 150100Z through 151200Z, maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. The summary states that thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.
A mid-level shortwave trough is moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest Texas and are expected to continue east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas, instability is weaker near the boundary. RAP forecast soundings indicate 40 to 50 knots of southwesterly mid-level flow supporting organized thunderstorms. Predominant mode is linear; more intense line segments could produce damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal threat may continue overnight across part of the Ozarks. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685 remains in effect until 11 PM CDT, with Mesoscale Discussion 2377 highlighting continued QLCS risk along the Red River Valley including possible brief tornado.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas, valid through 12Z Thursday, October 15, 2026 (updated ~0020 UTC). The greatest probabilities for exceeding the 3-inch, 5-inch, and 8-inch thresholds remain positioned over central Oklahoma, with the Oklahoma City metro a notable focus. High-resolution guidance continues to indicate widespread areas of additional 3–5 inches of rain with local maxima upwards of 8 inches on top of already observed totals of 3–8 inches (locally higher, up to 11 inches in some western areas) in parts of the region.
An anomalously moist environment is in place with plentiful Gulf moisture and influence from offshore Hurricane Simon, producing precipitable water values near or past record levels for October. The 12Z OUN sounding showed 2.23 inches, the highest recorded for the month during the period of record. Overnight and morning storms produced areal average estimated rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches (locally 6–8 inches and higher) from central Oklahoma west-southwest into the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Coordination with the Norman forecast office supports the Moderate Risk from southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin through central Oklahoma and into the Tulsa metro area. Flood Watches remain in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. A Slight Risk extends into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Life-threatening flash flooding has been reported across the Oklahoma City metro, with major flooding forecast on the Canadian River near Bridgeport.
Active Watches, Warnings, and Reports
As of late evening Wednesday (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM CDT / 0412Z 15 October 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685 is in effect until 11 PM CDT for southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Status reports and MD 2377 indicate the severe weather threat continues with a well-defined QLCS and embedded mesovortex advancing along the Red River Valley. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings from NWS Norman cover portions of Foard, Knox, Hardeman, Wilbarger and adjacent counties in Texas (destructive 70–80 mph winds, hail, tornado possible near Crowell, Quanah, Vernon) and Comanche, Cotton, Jackson, Tillman counties in Oklahoma (60–70 mph winds near Lawton, Cache, Fort Sill, Geronimo). Multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active from NWS Norman across the Oklahoma City metro (Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Kingfisher, Logan and adjacent counties) and western/central Oklahoma, plus residual from NWS Lubbock in northwestern Texas (Crosby, Dickens, Garza, Kent, Cottle, Motley with 2–5 inches fallen) and NWS Charleston in Ohio and West Virginia (1–2.25 inches). Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon across broad areas of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Life-threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, highways, and underpasses is ongoing or expected in places. Turn around, don’t drown remains the critical public message. Preliminary reports emphasize heavy rainfall totals of several inches (OKC metro 3–6 inches, western areas 4–11 inches including Elk City ~8.5 inches and Hinton ~9 inches) and developing wind damage under the watch.
Tropical
The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days in the Atlantic basin. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico with no threat to the United States, and Tropical Storm Trudy is also well south of Mexico. No Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane Watches or Warnings are in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America.
Rising queries
Trends unreachable.
Informational only — not an official warning. Always consult the latest products from the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center for official guidance and warnings. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.
As of ~9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 (KS/MO, expired 0400Z) has reached its expiration; Watches 683 (OK/TX Panhandle until Midnight CDT / 0500Z) and 684 (west TX until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect. Primary threats unchanged: large hail to 2.75 inches, damaging winds to 80+ mph, isolated tornado possible.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 0800 PM CDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) continues to hold the Slight Risk across southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. No category upgrade since the morning 1300 UTC outlook.
Preliminary SPC LSRs (1200 UTC Oct 13 onward, through ~2344 UTC) remain: hail to 2.75 inches near Matador TX and Mclean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, multiple 1.00–1.75 inch reports in KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX, 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. No tornado reports received.
Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue under the remaining watches, with prior destructive threats noted in the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Slight ERO holds across the corridor with Flood Watches for KS/MO including KC metro. Tropical lane unchanged: no U.S. land threats from Atlantic or EP systems.
No new mesoscale discussions issued in the last hour; storms continue organizing into clusters along the front with upscale growth expected overnight under the low-level jet.
Live Status
As of approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watches 683 and 684 remain live over western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle, and west Texas, while Watch 682 for Kansas and northwest Missouri has expired. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk continues to cover scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight from the southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg, and 35–45 kt shear continue to support supercells transitioning to linear and cluster modes. Preliminary LSRs confirm large hail and damaging winds are verifying. The low-level jet is expected to sustain convection overnight.
A Marginal Risk persists for isolated severe gusts in parts of western and central New York and for overnight expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. The WPC Day 1 Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook and associated Flood Watches cover the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas. The multi-day unsettled period with heavy rain potential continues through Thursday.
Hotspots
KS / NW MO — Watch 682 expired
Southern and eastern Kansas into west-central and northwest Missouri were under Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z. The watch included the Kansas City metro, Wichita, and Topeka corridors. Threats included large hail (1–2.5 inches), damaging winds (60–80 mph), and a low tornado risk, concurrent with Flood Watches for the KC metro. Active warnings earlier included destructive wind threats over the Kansas City area; preliminary hail and wind reports occurred in central Kansas. Storms continue to track east as the watch ends.
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX — Watches 683 and 684 live
Western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas remain under Watch 683 until Midnight CDT / 0500Z; west Texas under Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z. Threats: large to very large hail (to 2.75 inches), damaging winds (to 81 mph), and an isolated tornado. LSRs include 2.75-inch hail near Matador and Mclean TX, 2.50-inch hail near Hedley TX, and an 81 mph gust near Turkey TX. Prior mesoscale discussion 2371 noted an organizing cluster across southwestern into central Oklahoma. The WPC Slight ERO extends into the region.
Overnight Marginal and western/central NY
A Marginal Risk continues for isolated severe gusts. Scattered storms remain possible in western and central New York with a watch unlikely. Overnight Marginal expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri is possible for organized wind if convection persists along the front.
Just Hit
Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (from 1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC): hail to 2.75 inches near Matador (Motley County, TX) and Mclean (Wheeler County, TX), 2.50 inches near Hedley (Donley County, TX), 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX. Wind reports: 81 mph measured near Turkey (Hall County, TX), 75 mph near Flomot (Motley County, TX), 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), 63 mph near McAdoo TX, and tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. Radar-indicated larger hail and 70–80 mph gusts occurred under active warnings, including earlier destructive threats over the Kansas City metro. No tornado reports have been received. Residual minor Flood Warnings elsewhere remain non-severe leftovers.
Pulse Table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this afternoon
KS / NW MO
Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain
Two watches active; short-fuse warnings and preliminary reports ongoing
Restoration Read
Slight Risk severe weather continues under live Watches 683 and 684 (Watch 682 expired), with preliminary LSRs confirming large hail (to 2.75 inches) and damaging wind gusts (to 81 mph) across the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas. Teams covering Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, Amarillo, Lubbock, and Oklahoma corridors should stage for tree, roof, siding, and exterior damage from hail and gusts. Concurrent Flood Slight and active Flood Watches make water the co-equal ticket; monitor low-lying areas, creeks, and urban runoff as rainfall rates climb. No tropical or coastal surge tickets. Standard posture: confirm county products on weather.gov, stage for mixed wind/hail/water response, and re-check as storms continue overnight.
What This Is Not
Not an official warning. Not an Enhanced or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher excessive rainfall day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent tornadoes or widespread damage beyond the preliminary reports. The Slight remains the official category; Watches 683 and 684 confirm the threat is still underway in the southern portions. All reports remain preliminary and subject to revision.
Looking Ahead One Day
SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau (mainly damaging winds, with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible) for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with Marginal elsewhere including parts of the upper Ohio Valley. WPC continues the multi-day heavy rain potential into the Plains/Missouri Valley corridor. Cooler air is expected later in the week.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Confirm local products on weather.gov before travel or work. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682 (southern/eastern Kansas into west-central/northwest Missouri until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z), 683 (western Oklahoma and eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas until Midnight CDT / 0500Z), and 684 (west Texas until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect as of 0210Z October 14. Primary threats: large hail to 2.5 inches, damaging winds to 75–80 mph, isolated tornado possible. Status messages updated through 0153Z.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0800 PM CDT / 7:00 PM PDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) maintains the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Summary: scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. Core Slight area holds with ongoing supercell and linear modes. Next outlook by 0600Z.
Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC) include hail to 2.75 inches near Matador and McLean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX (TTU mesonet), 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS, 63 mph near McAdoo TX, plus tree limbs down near Hazelton KS and a power pole down near Grantville KS. No tornado reports received.
Active short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue across the Plains, including earlier destructive-threat storms over the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0010 UTC Oct 14 / 8:10 PM EDT) holds the Slight Risk across the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, with subtle shifts based on radar and HRRR trends. Flood Watches remain for portions of KS and adjacent western MO.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy (Eastern Pacific) remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Tropical lane unchanged. Severe and flood categories remain Slight; main movement is confirmed initiation with measured LSRs and active watches continuing into the overnight.
Live Status
As of the Tuesday morning desk update (approximately 9:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM CDT / 0413Z on October 13/14, 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682, 683, and 684 remain live over the central and southern Plains into west Texas. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk covers scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight over the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg) and 0–6 km shear near 35 knots support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible before modes become more linear. Primary hazards remain large hail (up to 2.75 inches reported) and damaging winds (up to 81 mph measured). Tornado potential is low but non-zero near the front. Short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been active, including destructive threats over the Kansas City metro.
A Marginal Risk continues for parts of the southern Great Lakes (isolated large hail with elevated storms) and broader areas of southwest Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley. A small Marginal ERO covers southeast Texas and adjacent Louisiana for urban/poor-drainage flooding. WPC Slight ERO remains in place, driven by slow cell motions, repeating convection, and a developing low-level jet after sunset. Neighborhood probabilities support elevated chances for >3 inches near Kansas City and over the southern High Plains. This is the start of a multi-day unsettled period with additional heavy rainfall possible through Thursday.
Pulse Table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this evening
KS / NW MO (including KC metro)
Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain
Watches 682/683/684 live; hail to 2.75″, wind to 81 mph
Initiation confirmed; no tornado LSRs
Rising queries
Trends unreachable this run.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from western North Texas across Oklahoma to the western Ozark Plateau for Wednesday, primarily damaging wind gusts with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible. Marginal Risk extends into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Thursday across the Plains and Midwest corridor. Cooler air arrives later in the week.
Restoration posture: the Plains severe and flood window is open this evening into tonight under Watches 682, 683, and 684 and Flood Watches. Primary hazards large hail and damaging wind under supercells and clusters, with confirmed reports of both. Check weather.gov for county-level warnings, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and watch status, and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for the excessive rainfall overlay. No named storm hub required this run.
Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:13 PM PDT on October 13, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.
This is the Monday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 5, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:32 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0746 UTC and discussed at 3:57 a.m. EDT by Wegman, keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the southern lower Texas coast, including Brownsville and coastal Willacy and Cameron counties. Southeast Alabama took radar-indicated flash flood warnings overnight that have since expired. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:26 UTC Monday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received.
The pattern behind the quiet severe desk is progressive northwesterly flow over the northern tier of the country and Canada, with a prominent upper trough shifting east over Quebec. Surface high pressure and large-scale subsidence generally prevail east of the Mississippi River. Surface troughing is becoming established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida, thunderstorms are expected near and south of a southward-shifting frontal boundary. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur today from northern New York into northern New England as a cold front shifts east. SPC notes a few convectively enhanced wind gusts might occur there as lapse rates steepen diurnally. That is a local gust note, not a risk area.
Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live
Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The overnight Day 1 outlook at 0100 UTC, written by Squitieri at 8:37 p.m. CDT Sunday, already said severe thunderstorms were not expected across the continental United States through 1200 UTC. Lightning coverage along the sagging Southeast front was expected to decrease with nocturnal cooling, and a plume of marginal buoyancy from Colorado into New Mexico was expected to wane.
The products that did expire were flash flood warnings, not watches. National Weather Service Birmingham extended a Flash Flood Warning for northern Barbour County until 2:30 a.m. CDT. At 11:52 p.m. CDT Sunday, radar indicated 4 to 6 inches already down, with another 2 to 4 inches possible. The polygon included Clayton, Comer, Spring Hill, Hawkinsville, and U.S. 82 between mile markers 219 and 235. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put a Flash Flood Warning on central Coffee County and northwestern Dale County until 4:15 a.m. CDT. At 1:20 a.m. CDT, radar indicated 1 to 3 inches down and up to 2 inches more, covering Elba, Fort Rucker, Enterprise, Ozark, New Brockton, and Ariton. Both of those warnings are off the board this morning.
A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee, also issued by Jacksonville, covered Apalachee Bay and coastal waters from the Suwannee River to Apalachicola until 3:30 a.m. EDT for a radar-indicated waterspout and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The cell was 12 nautical miles southeast of V Tower, moving east at 5 knots. That marine warning has expired. It was a coastal water ticket, not a land tornado report.
What is still live is flood-watch language, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans at 9:58 p.m. CDT Sunday, extended a Flood Watch through Monday morning, until 1700 UTC, for portions of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, including Baldwin and Mobile counties and the Destin to Fort Walton Beach coast. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville Sunday afternoon, holds a Flood Watch through Monday evening for southeast Alabama including Geneva and Houston counties, the Florida Panhandle, and parts of south Georgia. The Tallahassee text calls for another 2 to 4 inches, locally up to 6, especially along the Emerald and Forgotten coasts, and notes south-central Georgia is already primed from Friday rain. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 2:17 a.m. EDT extended a Flood Watch through this evening for portions of north Florida and southeast Georgia, including Baker, coastal Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, and eastern Hamilton counties, with listed towns running from Fernandina Beach and Hilliard toward Alma and Woodbine.
Hotspot 1 — Lower Texas coast
This is the only Slight Risk on the WPC Day 1 map. A stalled front remains draped across almost the entire Gulf Coast, and the piece near the lower Texas coast is stationary. Flow on both sides of the front is out of the northeast. Precipitable water along the front is above 2.25 inches, and sea-surface temperatures in the upper 80s are feeding slow-moving, training showers and thunderstorms that are moving southwest along the front into the coast. WPC says rainfall yesterday alone ranged from 3 to 6 inches, with another 2 to 4 inches expected today.
Wegman kept the Slight Risk specifically for coastal Willacy and Cameron counties, including Brownsville, and noted that outside urban pockets on South Padre Island and in Brownsville, much of the area is flat with sandy soils that are difficult to flood even with this volume. That is an urban and poor-drainage ticket, not a basin-wide river emergency.
Restoration read: stage extraction and drying for low-lying streets, underpasses, and first-floor commercial space in Brownsville and on South Padre, not a regional roof-and-wind deployment. Yesterday’s 3 to 6 inches is already a wet-drywall clock in the places that did not drain. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.
Hotspot 2 — Southeast Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
The same front extends across far southern Alabama, Georgia, and north Florida, but here it has been moving south, slowly. WPC left this corridor in a Marginal Risk. The heaviest rains are aimed at the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola and the Big Bend. Forecast totals for the day run 3 to 6 inches in those regions. Forecasters kept the risk at Marginal because the area is relatively flat, sparsely populated in the core, and full of swamp that can take water. Urban flash-flood concern stays along I-10 from Pensacola through Tallahassee into Jacksonville, where storms are not expected to move very far.
Overnight just-hit reports are the Barbour, Coffee, and Dale warnings. Those polygons are off, but the Flood Watches are not. Mobile’s watch runs through Monday morning. Tallahassee’s runs through Monday evening. That is the handoff from a warning that already verified on radar to a watch that still covers the next round.
Restoration read: southeast Alabama is a just-hit water desk. Enterprise, Ozark, Elba, and Clayton are the towns named in the expired warnings. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain, not a new severe claim. The Panhandle and Big Bend are today’s training-rain desk if cells sit on I-10 or the Forgotten Coast. Do not staff it as wind or hail.
Quiet severe pulse and leftover river water
Northern New York into northern New England is the only place SPC mentioned enhanced gusts, and only as isolated low-topped storms on the cold front. No risk area, no watch, no reports. The Plains stay moisture-starved under the surface trough. East of the Mississippi, high pressure is the dominant story away from the Gulf front.
River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 10:30 p.m. CDT Sunday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.2 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday morning, and at Clarksville, stage 25.2 feet against 25.0, until Tuesday evening. National Weather Service Quad Cities replaced a river flood watch with a flood warning for minor flooding on the Wapsipinicon River near Anamosa Shaw Road from Monday morning into Tuesday morning. Those are channel tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse.
Tropics are not a U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center Atlantic discussion at 1215 UTC notes a front stalling over the northern Gulf and says broad low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive; a tropical depression could form in the second half of the week while the system drifts east, then turns north. That is a development note, not a landfall warning. The hurricane-warning language on the national watch page this morning is offshore Mexico in the eastern Pacific, not a Gulf Coast product.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / WPC / NWS level
Status this morning
Lower Texas coast (Cameron, Willacy, Brownsville)
Training rain, urban flood
WPC Slight; no SPC severe area
Live; another 2–4 inches after 3–6 yesterday
SE Alabama (Barbour, Coffee, Dale)
Just-hit flash flood
Warnings expired 2:30–4:15 a.m. CDT
Aftermath; 1–6 inches indicated overnight
SW Alabama / western FL Panhandle
Additional heavy rain
Flood Watch through Monday morning
Live until about noon CDT
Emerald / Forgotten Coast, Big Bend
Training rain, isolated flash flood
WPC Marginal; Flood Watch through Monday evening
Live; 3–6 inches possible, locally 6
North Florida / SE Georgia
Excessive rainfall
JAX Flood Watch through this evening
Live
Northern NY / northern New England
Isolated gusty storms
No severe area
Low-topped; no watch
Mississippi at Louisiana MO / Clarksville; Wapsipinicon
Minor river flood
Flood warnings
In channel, not a new convective ticket
What this means for restoration teams
There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is southeast Alabama water from warnings that expired before dawn, plus any Brownsville or South Padre street that did not clear after yesterday’s 3 to 6 inches. The day work is extraction timing on the lower Texas coast and a flood-watch posture from Mobile through the Panhandle into north Florida and south Georgia.
A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on sandy coastal plain is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements on the Mississippi and the Wapsipinicon are separate from the Gulf front; they are slow water already in the channel.
What this is not
This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on today’s SPC log. The Gulf development note is a midweek possibility over the southwest Gulf, not an overnight hit. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a stalled coastal front and leftover flood-watch counties from last night’s Alabama warnings.
Looking ahead
SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Tuesday. The front stays the story: stationary on the lower Texas coast, still sagging south across the Southeast. If the southwest Gulf low organizes later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a moisture source for the same stalled boundary.
