This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 4, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed small, but it is no longer empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:43 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Sunday through 1200 UTC Monday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the coastal Florida Panhandle. The summary line is short: a few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal Florida Panhandle.
The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center raised a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for the lower Texas coast, and National Weather Service flash flood warnings were already in effect before 9 a.m. CDT on the Emerald Coast. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:04 UTC Sunday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Saturday night carried into Sunday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook Saturday night, written by Marsh, had no severe areas at all. The Marginal was added on the 0600 UTC cycle and kept on the 1300 UTC update.
SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Saturday through 1159 UTC Sunday window, and for the new Sunday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. What verified overnight and into the morning is rain, not a wind or hail survey.
The Marginal area on the 1300 UTC graphic covers about 7,329 square miles and about 828,936 people. Larger population centers listed by SPC include Pensacola, Panama City, Ferry Pass, Wright, and Brent. The 0600 UTC probabilistic table placed a 2 percent tornado risk on that same coastal strip and listed no damaging-wind or large-hail areas. The 1300 UTC discussion does not add a wind or hail probability. The threat, if it verifies, is a brief, transient low-level circulation near the coast.
Hotspot 1 — Florida Panhandle and the central Gulf Coast
A stalled or slow-southeastward-moving surface front sits across the Southeast and Deep South. South of it, precipitable water is in excess of 2 inches, and the 0600 UTC discussion cited mean precipitable water near 2.5 inches on the Florida Panhandle with mean MUCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were already common early today south of the front, including the northern Gulf. SPC notes some guidance, most notably recent NAM runs, for weak offshore surface low development and a related increase in low-level flow and storm-relative helicity. If that trend holds, storms near the coast can spin up briefly. The related hazard is a waterspout or a brief tornado, mainly near the coast.
That marine piece is already on the warning map. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put special marine warnings up before 8 a.m. CDT for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line toward Mexico Beach, and again toward Apalachee Bay, for waterspouts and wind gusts of 34 knots or greater. Mobile, issued by New Orleans, had a special marine warning for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line to Pensacola. Those are marine products. They are not a land tornado warning, and none was on the national summary at the morning scan.
Water is the product that is already warning, not watching. At 6:52 a.m. CDT, National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, issued a flash flood warning for southeastern Okaloosa County until 9:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 2 to 4 inches already down, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin Air Force Base, Valparaiso, and Mary Esther. At 7:38 a.m. CDT, Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, issued a flash flood warning for west-central Bay County and southwestern Walton County until 10:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 1 to 3 inches already down, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. Locations include Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Grayton Beach, Seaside, Sandestin, Inlet Beach, and Miramar Beach.
Flood watches frame that warning. Mobile’s flood watch remains through this evening for Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama and for Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in northwest Florida, including Pensacola, Gulf Shores, and Fort Walton Beach. Additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Tallahassee’s flood watch remains through Monday morning for Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, and Gulf counties, and a separate watch through Monday morning covers southeast Alabama (Geneva and Houston), the Florida Big Bend including Tallahassee, and south-central Georgia including Albany, Thomasville, and Valdosta. Additional totals of 2 to 6 inches are forecast, locally up to 10 inches along the Emerald Coast. New Orleans holds a flood watch through this evening for coastal Mississippi (Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties, including Gulfport and Biloxi) and for southeast Louisiana including New Orleans, with an additional 3 to 5 inches possible. Jacksonville has a flood watch from noon today through Monday morning for the Georgia coast, where prior rain has already cut flash-flood guidance.
WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday and valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday, kept an enhanced Slight Risk from Mobile Bay east to the Emerald and Forgotten coasts and deferred a Moderate upgrade there after coordination with offices Mobile and Tallahassee. Forecaster Weiss cited 2 to 3 inch-per-hour rates, precipitable water above 2.25 to 2.5 inches, and training where Corfidi vectors collapse. Some areas can see 3 to 5 inches today, locally as much as 8 inches. A separate Georgia-coast signal is centered near Savannah, with compromised flash-flood guidance of 1 to 2 inches in three hours.
Restoration read: staff the warning, not the Marginal polygon. Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay are the live water board this morning. Pensacola to Panama City is the brief-tornado strip if the offshore low tightens low-level shear. This is wet drywall, flooring, and a short mold clock where water enters. It is not a regional roof or hail crew. Do not treat a special marine warning as a land damage survey.
Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast
The highest excessive-rain category on the board is not the Panhandle. WPC raised a targeted Moderate Risk for the lower Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi after coordination with offices Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Convection developing over the Gulf is expected to track southwest into moist inflow and push onshore repeatedly. Rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour could produce local maxima in excess of 10 inches. Both the REFS and HREF indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 8 inches. Recent rain has already been significant in spots: 2 to 4 inches in the last 12 hours, and up to 8 inches in the last three days. Sandy soils keep flash-flood guidance elevated, but WPC still flags locally significant impacts if the core crosses urban areas or more sensitive soils.
A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was joined along the immediate western Gulf Coast for possible onshore drift of heavy rain through the morning and afternoon. That is a lower bar than the Moderate strip from Brownsville to Corpus Christi. A coastal flood advisory is also in effect until 2 p.m. CDT for minor coastal flooding on the Aransas, Kleberg, and Nueces islands. That is tide and surge on the islands, not a convective watch.
Restoration read: Brownsville, Corpus Christi, and the communities between them are the new volume ticket. Saturday’s Slight Risk on this same coast is now a Moderate. Stage for street flooding and first-floor water only where a warning or a closed road verifies. Do not send the Panhandle crew and the Texas coast crew as if they are one storm.
What expired, and what is still just a river
Saturday’s Day 1 outlook had no severe areas, and Saturday’s storm-report page stayed empty. The Gulf Coast Slight Risk of excessive rain from Saturday is the parent of this morning’s watches, not a separate event. Iowa river flood warnings continued early Sunday on the Iowa River near Tama, Black Hawk Creek at Hudson, the South Skunk River at Colfax, and the Des Moines and Raccoon rivers at Des Moines. Those are river-stage tickets. They are not a convective watch and not a new storm-damage board.
Tropics — not a U.S. land desk
National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 at 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday places Hurricane Rachel near 20.2°N, 113.2°W, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a minimum pressure of 968 mb. Rachel strengthened a little and remains well southwest of Baja California. The hurricane warnings on the morning national summary are offshore-waters products for the eastern Pacific within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, including waters near the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo San Lucas. That is not a U.S. landfall.
Hurricane Nolo, at 11:00 p.m. HST Saturday, was near 23.6°N, 176.7°W, moving west at 18 mph with winds of 110 mph, and is expected to cross the International Date Line on Sunday. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf rain is tied to the stalled front and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / WPC / NWS level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Florida Panhandle | Brief tornado, waterspout | SPC Marginal; 2% tornado on 0600 UTC | Live today; no convective watch |
| Okaloosa, Walton, Bay counties | Flash flood | Flash flood warnings to mid-morning | Live; 1–4 inches already indicated |
| Mobile Bay to Emerald Coast | Training heavy rain | WPC Slight, upgrade deferred; flood watches | 4–6 inches more, locally 8–10 |
| SE Louisiana, coastal Mississippi | Heavy rain | Flood watch through this evening | Additional 3–5 inches possible |
| Lower Texas coast | Extreme rain rates | WPC Moderate | Local maxima above 10 inches possible |
| Georgia coast near Savannah | Repeated heavy rain | Flood watch noon through Monday morning | Soils already partly saturated |
| U.S. mainland tropics | None | Atlantic clear; Rachel SW of Baja | Offshore Mexico warnings only |
What this means for restoration teams
There is still no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. The Marginal is a coastal spin-up risk, not a hail or widespread damaging-wind risk. A 2-to-3 inch-per-hour rate is wet drywall and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance on sandy Texas soils means part of the Moderate Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning polygon in Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay first. Treat Brownsville to Corpus Christi as the volume board if cells come onshore this afternoon. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.
Next check
The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2, valid Monday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Moderate Risk, any new flash flood warnings on the Panhandle, and whether the brief-tornado trend still holds before treating this morning polygon as still live. Flood watches on the Panhandle run through Monday morning. Mobile, New Orleans, and the lower Texas coast are today’s shorter fuse.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, October 4, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 3 and October 4 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary, including flash flood warnings for Okaloosa County and for Bay and Walton counties; National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026.
Disclaimer: This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a warning, not a forecast for a specific address, and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov before travel or work.
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