Tag: Gulf Coast

Storm Updates: Florida Flood Pulse, Quiet Severe — Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (Morning)

Wednesday morning desk. Florida owns the water. The organized severe window is closed. Not an NWS warning.

This is the Wednesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 7, 2026. Overnight into this morning the severe board stayed empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 7:43 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the United States today and tonight. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida Peninsula through 12 UTC Thursday, after a live flood warning on the Jacksonville metro from overnight rain.

These are county- and ZIP-scale flood and river tickets, not a plains outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this morning. Tropical Storm Isaias is a Friday northern Gulf planning note. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC language at 7:43 a.m. CDT: no tornado, wind, or hail risk areas. General thunderstorm areas remain drawn over parts of Florida, the northern tier into northern New York, and scattered western terrain, but that is thunder coverage, not a severe category. The most recent convective watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, issued September 30 for west-central Texas. It expired at midnight CDT that night. Nothing replaced it overnight.

West-central Florida is the place SPC is still watching, even with probabilities withheld. The setup looks like yesterday: a weak surface wave and a front from the northeast Gulf east-northeast across the middle of the Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms were already on either side of the front early this morning. The 12 UTC Tampa Bay sounding sampled 2.53 inches of precipitable water, with 70s dewpoints near and south of the front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain keep lapse rates poor and buoyancy thin. Effective shear is generally 25 knots or less. Some low-level veering could support a transient supercell, and waterspout potential exists offshore. SPC says it is unclear whether a tornadic waterspout reaches the west-central Peninsula or whether supercells develop inland. Severe risk stays low unless a later outlook adds probabilities. The next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Northern New York is the other convective note. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms are possible late today and more so tonight as an amplifying upper trough and a cold front approach. Buoyancy is limited. Gusty winds are plausible tonight as low- and mid-level flow increases and lapse rates steepen above the boundary layer. That is a local wind and lightning desk, not a watch.

Hotspot 1 — Florida Peninsula flood pulse

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0831 UTC (5:03 a.m. EDT), keeps a Marginal Risk over much of the Florida Peninsula, valid 12 UTC Wednesday through 12 UTC Thursday. A slow, strong front stays draped across the northern Peninsula. South of it, precipitable water is above 2.25 inches. Light to moderate rain continues along I-4 and generally south of I-10, with localized convection that can stall. The Marginal is there because a cell that hits an urban or flood-prone spot can exceed flash-flood guidance. Four Corners showers this afternoon stay sub-Marginal on the WPC discussion.

The overnight ticket that already verified is Jacksonville. The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued a Flood Warning at 5:20 a.m. EDT for southeastern Duval County and north-central St. Johns County, in effect until 8:15 a.m. EDT. Doppler radar showed heavy rain from thunderstorms. Between 3 and 7 inches had fallen, with up to 2 more inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Jacksonville, Arlington, Ponte Vedra Beach, Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach, Baymeadows, UNF, and Craig Field. Streams were still rising from the last 12 hours of runoff. That warning is short-fuse urban water, not a multi-day river crest.

River warnings are the slower desk. NWS Tampa Bay issued a Flood Warning at 6:34 a.m. EDT for the Withlacoochee at U.S. 41 Dunnellon, affecting Levy, Marion, and Citrus counties, until further notice. Minor flooding. Stage was 28.2 feet at 5:45 a.m. EDT, at flood stage, with docks and boat ramps flooding. The office tied the elevated stage to hydrilla acting like a dam along a 4.5-mile stretch between U.S. 41 and Lake Rousseau, with levels expected to stay steady or rise if more rain falls in the basin. NWS Melbourne continues a Flood Warning for the St. Johns River near Astor, affecting Volusia and Lake counties. At 8:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet, flood stage 2.3 feet, with a rise toward 2.7 feet late this week. Docks, ramps, and low roads nearest the river are the impact language.

Restoration read: Jacksonville Beach through Arlington is the just-hit extraction window if water is inside. Do not wait on a severe watch that is not coming. Dunnellon and Astor are river-bottom and marina tickets, not a new convective outbreak. West-central Florida stays a monitor for a brief waterspout or a stalled cell, not a hail board.

Hotspot 2 — Iowa river aftermath

The Quad Cities office extended minor flood warnings Tuesday evening on the Cedar and Iowa rivers. Cedar River near Conesville, affecting Muscatine and Louisa counties, was at 13.9 feet at 8 p.m. CDT Tuesday, cresting, flood stage 13.0 feet, warning until late Thursday night, with water affecting residences along County Road F70. Iowa River at Oakville was 11.1 feet, flood stage 11.0, expected below flood stage Thursday afternoon. Iowa River at Wapello was 21.5 feet, flood stage 21.0, until Friday morning, with agricultural land and secondary roads in Wapello Bottoms in the impact language. Iowa River at Marengo, Iowa and Benton counties, remains under a warning until late Friday night. These are falling or cresting river tickets from earlier rain, not a new SPC day.

Restoration read: drying and access on the bottoms, not a hail or wind callout. Do not pull a plains severe crew for Louisa County this morning.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the window from 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday show no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Today’s report page, which opened at 1200 UTC Wednesday, is also empty as of this desk. Yesterday’s Marginal tornado area on the west-central Florida coast, and Mesoscale Discussion 2346, did not produce a logged land report. The 0100 UTC Tuesday-night outlook had already pulled severe probabilities after rotating storms weakened approaching the western peninsula shoreline.

The verified overnight hit is water, not wind: 3 to 7 inches in southeastern Duval and north-central St. Johns, with the Jacksonville flood warning still live into the morning commute. Panhandle work from earlier in the week remains aftermath. Nothing new was logged from a convective watch, because none was in effect.

Tropical note — Isaias, not a landfall

National Hurricane Center Advisory 3 at 4:00 a.m. CDT upgraded Tropical Depression Nine to Tropical Storm Isaias. Center near 22.0 N, 94.1 W, about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Movement east-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Minimum pressure 1004 mb. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. NHC says interests on the Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should monitor the storm, and that hurricane watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later today.

Forecast track: pass north of the Yucatan on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, with Isaias expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Rainfall on U.S. land is a Friday-through-weekend item, not this morning’s ticket: 3 to 6 inches, localized up to 10, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and 1 to 3 inches, localized up to 5, across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash, urban, and isolated river flooding will be possible then. Swells reach the Gulf Coast late this week. Offshore hurricane and tropical-storm warnings are already on Gulf marine zones. That is marine, not a coastal warning for land. Hurricane Rachel is in the eastern Pacific, well west of Baja California, and is not a U.S. land threat this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Jacksonville metro / St. Johns	Urban flood, standing water, stream rise	NWS Flood Warning until 8:15 a.m. EDT; 3–7 inches overnight	Just hit, warning still live
Florida Peninsula	Training rain, urban flooding, brief waterspout offshore	WPC Marginal excessive rain; SPC no severe area	Live flood pulse; severe low
Withlacoochee at Dunnellon	Minor river flooding, docks and ramps	NWS Flood Warning until further notice	Live, hydrilla-elevated stage
St. Johns at Astor	Minor river flooding	NWS Flood Warning continues	Rising toward late week
Cedar and Iowa rivers	Minor river flooding, bottoms roads	NWS flood warnings into Thursday–Friday	Aftermath, cresting or falling
Northern New York	Low-topped storms, gusty wind tonight	SPC general thunder, no severe area	Late today into tonight
Northern Gulf / Isaias	Future wind, surge, 3–6 inches Friday–weekend	NHC TS, 40 mph; no land watches yet	Planning note, not a today landfall

What this means for restoration teams

This morning’s work is water that already fell. Three to seven inches in southeastern Duval and north-central St. Johns is wet drywall, soaked lower cabinets, and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water crossed the threshold. Standing water on Beach Boulevard corridors and low lots is an access problem before it is a rebuild. Photograph in daylight only if it is safe. Turn around, don’t drown.

Dunnellon and Astor are slower. Marina docks, ramps, and the first roads off the river are the exposure, not a roof-tarping line. Iowa bottoms are the same class of ticket farther north: agricultural land and secondary roads, residences along County Road F70 near Conesville if the stage holds. Do not staff those as a severe-wind event.

West-central Florida does not earn a severe board until SPC draws one. If a waterspout comes ashore, it is a narrow coastal survey, not a regional callout. Northern New York gusts tonight, if they verify, are tree-on-line and light roof work on a limited buoyancy profile.

Isaias is not a roll-today storm. Hurricane watches may come up later today for part of the northern Gulf coast. Friday is the approach day on the current NHC track, with the heavier rain from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle after that. Stage the planning conversation. Do not pull crews off the Jacksonville flood warning for a center that is still about 580 miles southwest of the Mississippi mouth.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day and not a convective watch morning. SPC logged no severe reports overnight. It is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Offshore hurricane warnings on Gulf marine zones are for waters, not for a coastal county warning yet. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is Florida urban water, two Florida river gauges, and leftover Iowa river flooding.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 outlook, issued late Tuesday night, also has no severe thunderstorm areas for Thursday. Isolated low-topped storms are possible from the upper Hudson Valley into Maine, with very small hail not ruled out under cold temperatures aloft. Florida keeps scattered afternoon storms in rich moisture as Isaias strengthens over the central Gulf, but Thursday severe is not expected on that outlook because of weak shear and poor lapse rates. The change to watch is NHC: hurricane watches likely later today for a portion of the northern Gulf coast, then the Friday approach. The afternoon desk should say whether SPC added a Florida severe probability and whether a land watch is up.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (7:43 a.m. CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; last issued watch 676, September 30); SPC preliminary local storm reports for October 6 and October 7; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0831 UTC October 7; National Weather Service flood products from Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Melbourne, and Quad Cities; National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory 3, 4:00 a.m. CDT October 7.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Isaias. Prior desk: Storm Updates: West-Central Florida Marginal Tornado — Tuesday, October 6, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 7, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Panhandle Marginal, Texas Coast Moderate Rain — Sunday, October 4, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 4, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed small, but it is no longer empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:43 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Sunday through 1200 UTC Monday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across the coastal Florida Panhandle. The summary line is short: a few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal Florida Panhandle.

The larger restoration ticket is water, not a watch box. The Weather Prediction Center raised a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for the lower Texas coast, and National Weather Service flash flood warnings were already in effect before 9 a.m. CDT on the Emerald Coast. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:04 UTC Sunday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Saturday night carried into Sunday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook Saturday night, written by Marsh, had no severe areas at all. The Marginal was added on the 0600 UTC cycle and kept on the 1300 UTC update.

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Saturday through 1159 UTC Sunday window, and for the new Sunday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. What verified overnight and into the morning is rain, not a wind or hail survey.

The Marginal area on the 1300 UTC graphic covers about 7,329 square miles and about 828,936 people. Larger population centers listed by SPC include Pensacola, Panama City, Ferry Pass, Wright, and Brent. The 0600 UTC probabilistic table placed a 2 percent tornado risk on that same coastal strip and listed no damaging-wind or large-hail areas. The 1300 UTC discussion does not add a wind or hail probability. The threat, if it verifies, is a brief, transient low-level circulation near the coast.

Hotspot 1 — Florida Panhandle and the central Gulf Coast

A stalled or slow-southeastward-moving surface front sits across the Southeast and Deep South. South of it, precipitable water is in excess of 2 inches, and the 0600 UTC discussion cited mean precipitable water near 2.5 inches on the Florida Panhandle with mean MUCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were already common early today south of the front, including the northern Gulf. SPC notes some guidance, most notably recent NAM runs, for weak offshore surface low development and a related increase in low-level flow and storm-relative helicity. If that trend holds, storms near the coast can spin up briefly. The related hazard is a waterspout or a brief tornado, mainly near the coast.

That marine piece is already on the warning map. National Weather Service Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, put special marine warnings up before 8 a.m. CDT for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line toward Mexico Beach, and again toward Apalachee Bay, for waterspouts and wind gusts of 34 knots or greater. Mobile, issued by New Orleans, had a special marine warning for coastal waters from the Okaloosa–Walton line to Pensacola. Those are marine products. They are not a land tornado warning, and none was on the national summary at the morning scan.

Water is the product that is already warning, not watching. At 6:52 a.m. CDT, National Weather Service Mobile, issued by New Orleans, issued a flash flood warning for southeastern Okaloosa County until 9:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 2 to 4 inches already down, with another 1 to 3 inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin Air Force Base, Valparaiso, and Mary Esther. At 7:38 a.m. CDT, Tallahassee, issued by Jacksonville, issued a flash flood warning for west-central Bay County and southwestern Walton County until 10:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated 1 to 3 inches already down, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. Locations include Santa Rosa Beach, Freeport, Grayton Beach, Seaside, Sandestin, Inlet Beach, and Miramar Beach.

Flood watches frame that warning. Mobile’s flood watch remains through this evening for Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama and for Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in northwest Florida, including Pensacola, Gulf Shores, and Fort Walton Beach. Additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Tallahassee’s flood watch remains through Monday morning for Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, and Gulf counties, and a separate watch through Monday morning covers southeast Alabama (Geneva and Houston), the Florida Big Bend including Tallahassee, and south-central Georgia including Albany, Thomasville, and Valdosta. Additional totals of 2 to 6 inches are forecast, locally up to 10 inches along the Emerald Coast. New Orleans holds a flood watch through this evening for coastal Mississippi (Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties, including Gulfport and Biloxi) and for southeast Louisiana including New Orleans, with an additional 3 to 5 inches possible. Jacksonville has a flood watch from noon today through Monday morning for the Georgia coast, where prior rain has already cut flash-flood guidance.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday and valid 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday, kept an enhanced Slight Risk from Mobile Bay east to the Emerald and Forgotten coasts and deferred a Moderate upgrade there after coordination with offices Mobile and Tallahassee. Forecaster Weiss cited 2 to 3 inch-per-hour rates, precipitable water above 2.25 to 2.5 inches, and training where Corfidi vectors collapse. Some areas can see 3 to 5 inches today, locally as much as 8 inches. A separate Georgia-coast signal is centered near Savannah, with compromised flash-flood guidance of 1 to 2 inches in three hours.

Restoration read: staff the warning, not the Marginal polygon. Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay are the live water board this morning. Pensacola to Panama City is the brief-tornado strip if the offshore low tightens low-level shear. This is wet drywall, flooring, and a short mold clock where water enters. It is not a regional roof or hail crew. Do not treat a special marine warning as a land damage survey.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The highest excessive-rain category on the board is not the Panhandle. WPC raised a targeted Moderate Risk for the lower Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi after coordination with offices Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Convection developing over the Gulf is expected to track southwest into moist inflow and push onshore repeatedly. Rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour could produce local maxima in excess of 10 inches. Both the REFS and HREF indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of at least 8 inches. Recent rain has already been significant in spots: 2 to 4 inches in the last 12 hours, and up to 8 inches in the last three days. Sandy soils keep flash-flood guidance elevated, but WPC still flags locally significant impacts if the core crosses urban areas or more sensitive soils.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was joined along the immediate western Gulf Coast for possible onshore drift of heavy rain through the morning and afternoon. That is a lower bar than the Moderate strip from Brownsville to Corpus Christi. A coastal flood advisory is also in effect until 2 p.m. CDT for minor coastal flooding on the Aransas, Kleberg, and Nueces islands. That is tide and surge on the islands, not a convective watch.

Restoration read: Brownsville, Corpus Christi, and the communities between them are the new volume ticket. Saturday’s Slight Risk on this same coast is now a Moderate. Stage for street flooding and first-floor water only where a warning or a closed road verifies. Do not send the Panhandle crew and the Texas coast crew as if they are one storm.

What expired, and what is still just a river

Saturday’s Day 1 outlook had no severe areas, and Saturday’s storm-report page stayed empty. The Gulf Coast Slight Risk of excessive rain from Saturday is the parent of this morning’s watches, not a separate event. Iowa river flood warnings continued early Sunday on the Iowa River near Tama, Black Hawk Creek at Hudson, the South Skunk River at Colfax, and the Des Moines and Raccoon rivers at Des Moines. Those are river-stage tickets. They are not a convective watch and not a new storm-damage board.

Tropics — not a U.S. land desk

National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 at 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday places Hurricane Rachel near 20.2°N, 113.2°W, moving west-northwest at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a minimum pressure of 968 mb. Rachel strengthened a little and remains well southwest of Baja California. The hurricane warnings on the morning national summary are offshore-waters products for the eastern Pacific within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, including waters near the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo San Lucas. That is not a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane Nolo, at 11:00 p.m. HST Saturday, was near 23.6°N, 176.7°W, moving west at 18 mph with winds of 110 mph, and is expected to cross the International Date Line on Sunday. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf rain is tied to the stalled front and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Coastal Florida Panhandle	Brief tornado, waterspout	SPC Marginal; 2% tornado on 0600 UTC	Live today; no convective watch
Okaloosa, Walton, Bay counties	Flash flood	Flash flood warnings to mid-morning	Live; 1–4 inches already indicated
Mobile Bay to Emerald Coast	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight, upgrade deferred; flood watches	4–6 inches more, locally 8–10
SE Louisiana, coastal Mississippi	Heavy rain	Flood watch through this evening	Additional 3–5 inches possible
Lower Texas coast	Extreme rain rates	WPC Moderate	Local maxima above 10 inches possible
Georgia coast near Savannah	Repeated heavy rain	Flood watch noon through Monday morning	Soils already partly saturated
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Atlantic clear; Rachel SW of Baja	Offshore Mexico warnings only

What this means for restoration teams

There is still no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. The Marginal is a coastal spin-up risk, not a hail or widespread damaging-wind risk. A 2-to-3 inch-per-hour rate is wet drywall and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance on sandy Texas soils means part of the Moderate Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning polygon in Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay first. Treat Brownsville to Corpus Christi as the volume board if cells come onshore this afternoon. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.

Next check

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2, valid Monday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Moderate Risk, any new flash flood warnings on the Panhandle, and whether the brief-tornado trend still holds before treating this morning polygon as still live. Flood watches on the Panhandle run through Monday morning. Mobile, New Orleans, and the lower Texas coast are today’s shorter fuse.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, October 4, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 3 and October 4 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary, including flash flood warnings for Okaloosa County and for Bay and Walton counties; National Hurricane Center Advisory 29 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Sunday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026.

Disclaimer: This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a warning, not a forecast for a specific address, and not a substitute for local NWS products. Watches and warnings expire and get replaced. Confirm the county or ZIP on weather.gov before travel or work.

October 4, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Slight Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Saturday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 3, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 8:16 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

These are county- and ZIP-scale leftovers and a coastal water board, not a mainland hurricane landfall. The live restoration ticket this morning is rain already aimed at the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast, not a new convective watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:35 UTC Saturday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, a Wednesday, September 30 product for west-central Texas. Nothing from Friday night carried into Saturday morning as a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch.

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday window, and for the new Saturday convective day that opened at 1200 UTC, show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The overnight severe hit list is empty. Pre-dawn thunderstorms were ongoing across the Dakotas ahead of a cold front, but the Day 1 discussion keeps severe potential virtually nil even if a stronger gust occurs this afternoon.

What is organized is water. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday and valid 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast and the lower Texas coast. Forecaster Wegman left the coastal Slight Risk in place and added a higher-end Slight Risk from New Orleans through much of the western Florida Panhandle, citing urban impacts and rainfall volume rather than a change in the underlying front.

Hotspot 1 — Central Gulf Coast

A tropical wave moving across the Gulf is funneling record to near-record atmospheric moisture into much of the Gulf Coast on Saturday. A 15 to 25 knot southerly flow at 850 mb supports numerous showers and thunderstorms moving into the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. Precipitable water is at or above 2.5 inches for many areas. Extensive cloud cover and the October sun should limit instability with any reasonable distance from the coast, so convection that hits the coast is not expected to travel far inland without significant weakening.

The coast can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain today, with locally higher amounts. Flash-flood guidance is high and soils have been dry, but WPC still flags widely scattered flash flooding where that volume lands on urban drainage, especially from New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle. Mississippi and Alabama coastal counties sit in the same Slight Risk envelope.

Cities and counties to watch: New Orleans, the south shore and east bank parishes, coastal Mississippi from Hancock through Jackson County, Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle from Pensacola toward Panama City. Inland rows are a weaker pulse. The front that stretches from the Carolinas southwest toward the Texas coastal plain is the broader thunderstorm focus, but weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates should limit organized severe convection along and south of it.

Restoration read: water first, and only where a warning or a measured street flood actually verifies. Stage extractors, air movers, and moisture meters for urban low spots, underpasses, and slab-on-grade first floors. This is not a wind or hail board. Do not staff a regional roof crew on a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Photograph standing water only if the road is already closed and it is safe to be there.

Hotspot 2 — Lower Texas coast

The second Slight Risk remains along the coast of Deep South Texas. Onshore northeasterly flow of the same deep tropical moisture may reach urban areas such as Brownsville. Because this stretch of coast sits roughly perpendicular to the mean flow, WPC expects the onshore push to let convection move a few miles inland before it dissipates. No change was made to the area included in that Slight Risk on the 0738 UTC update.

Friday afternoon’s central Texas story is a different board. The prior desk held a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on the I-35 corridor from Dallas–Fort Worth toward San Antonio, plus flood advisories in Comal, Guadalupe, and Hays counties and a flood watch that included coastal and inland Jackson County until early Friday evening. Those were time-limited products. They are not the Saturday morning Slight Risk. If a river or areal flood warning is still up in central or south-central Texas this morning, treat it as yesterday’s water still in the channel, not as a new convective watch.

Restoration read: Brownsville and the lower Texas coast are the new water ticket if cells train against the coast. Central Texas and southwest Kansas remain aftermath boards from Thursday and Friday. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Northern Plains scatter, and what expired

Progressive westerlies cover the northern half of the country through tonight, with a fairly substantial shortwave trough amplifying over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As the cold front shifts east, a modest increase in moisture, steepening lapse rates, and increasing lift support isolated thunderstorms, including the pre-dawn activity across the Dakotas. SPC allows that some stronger, convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur this afternoon. Severe potential is expected to remain virtually nil. There is no Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High Risk on the Day 1 categorical map.

Friday afternoon flash-flood warnings on the Georgia–Florida line, including Clinch and Echols counties in Georgia and Columbia County in Florida, were issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville with expiration times Friday evening. They are not a live Saturday morning warning. A separate river flood warning on the lower Fox River near New Munster, affecting Lake County, Illinois, and Kenosha County, Wisconsin, was continued Friday afternoon until Monday morning for minor flooding. That is a river-stage ticket, not a convective watch.

Tropics — not a U.S. land desk

National Hurricane Center Advisory 25 at 2:00 a.m. MST Saturday places Hurricane Rachel near 19.4°N, 111.8°W, about 270 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 969 mb. Rachel has weakened slightly and continues westward. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected today, with additional slow weakening. Swells will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend and can produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. That is a marine hazard, not a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane Nolo is a Central Pacific system, near 23.3°N, 170.4°W at 2:00 a.m. HST, moving west at 13 mph with winds of 110 mph. It is not a U.S. mainland threat. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones this morning. The Gulf Coast rain is tied to a tropical wave and deep moisture, not to a named storm making landfall.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central Gulf Coast (SE LA, coastal MS/AL, western FL Panhandle)	Heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight, higher-end on the coast	Live today and tonight; 3–6 inches, locally higher
Lower Texas coast (Brownsville)	Onshore heavy rain	WPC Slight	Live; cells may push a few miles inland
Northern Plains / Dakotas	Isolated storms, gusts	No severe area	Pre-dawn storms; severe potential virtually nil
Southeast / Deep South front	General thunderstorms	No severe area	Weak shear, modest lapse rates
Central Texas / southwest Kansas	Yesterday’s water	Aftermath, not a new watch	Verify any leftover flood warning before rolling
Fox River near New Munster	Minor river flood	Flood warning to Monday morning	River stage, not convective
U.S. mainland tropics	None	Rachel west of Baja; no coastal warnings	Swells and rip currents in Mexico only

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind-driven roof board on the Day 1 outlook. A 3-to-6-inch coastal rain is wet drywall, flooring, and a 24-to-48-hour mold clock only where water actually enters. High flash-flood guidance and dry soils mean many miles of the Slight Risk will not produce a claim. Staff the warning, not the polygon. Urban New Orleans through the western Florida Panhandle is the higher-end piece of the same Slight Risk because of drainage, not because a watch is up.

Southwest Kansas and central Texas are still yesterday’s water if a flood statement is still valid. Friday’s flash-flood emergency language in Ford County and the I-35 flood advisories do not automatically roll into Saturday. Check the office product before a crew leaves the yard. The empty SPC report page means there is no new hail or tornado survey from overnight.

Next check

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 3, valid Monday, also carries no severe thunderstorm areas, with the more robust low-level moisture staying on the Gulf Coast and winds aloft remaining weak. The afternoon desk should re-read the WPC Slight Risk and any new flood warnings on the central Gulf Coast before treating the morning polygon as still live.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, October 3, 2026; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued watch 676); SPC storm reports for October 2 and October 3 (no tornado, hail, or wind reports received); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0738 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service watches, warnings, and advisories summary; National Hurricane Center Advisory 25 on Hurricane Rachel, 2:00 a.m. MST Saturday. Prior desk: Storm Updates: Central Texas Slight Flood, Kansas Water — Friday, October 2, 2026.

October 3, 2026