Category: Storm Tracker

Storm briefs and active weather that restoration crews plan around.

Storm Updates: Appalachians Flood & Rachel — Oct 11 Morning

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias & Rachel · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias advanced to near 35.0N 86.7W as of WPC Advisory 18 at 10:00 PM CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, about 75 miles south of Nashville, Tennessee, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Continued flood risk across the Southeast and Southern Appalachians.
Tornado Watch 679 for eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina expired at 8:00 PM EDT after verifying with multiple confirmed tornadoes. SPC Day 1 Outlook (0100 UTC October 11) now carries a Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat across parts of the Carolinas this evening and few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is near 30.0N 116.5W as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 PM PDT, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with 60 mph winds and 987 mb. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight and dissipate early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California. Additional 2–5 inches, locally up to 10 inches, possible in upslope regions.
No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. Active Flash Flood Warnings in portions of the Carolinas; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona associated with Rachel moisture.

Live Status

As of late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, October 11, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across Tennessee toward the central Appalachians while dissipating. Additional rainfall of 2 to 5 inches with localized maxima of 10 inches remains possible across the Southern Appalachians from the western Carolinas into western Virginia. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible, with considerable impacts including landslides across the southern Appalachians. A couple of tornadoes remain possible tonight across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday over the southwestern United States. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Southern California coast beginning tonight or early Sunday. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, is expected across portions of the Southwest, supporting flash and urban flooding. Strong gusty winds are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest, especially higher terrain.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina, western Virginia): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy totals. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are possible. High Wind Warnings remain in elevated terrain.

Carolinas: SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening into overnight with rotating cells in the warm sector. Flash Flood Warnings active in portions of western North Carolina and South Carolina.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch on the San Diego County coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel drives the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Southern California. Marginal severe wind gust risk in the Desert Southwest. Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch in effect. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona.

Tennessee Valley residual: Center of the post-tropical system is about 75 miles south of Nashville. Residual heavy rain and isolated flash flooding continue along the track.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC / W VA)	Flash flood, landslides, 2–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live, ongoing into Sunday
Carolinas	Isolated tornado, flash flood	SPC Marginal; active Flash Flood Warnings	Evening into overnight
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, coastal flood	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego County); Coastal Flood Warning / Flood Watch	Increasing tonight into Sunday
Tennessee Valley residual	Residual heavy rain, isolated flood	Post-tropical 25 mph near Nashville	Ongoing, dissipating
Rest of CONUS severe board	No other organized severe	Marginal only in SW and Carolinas; no watches	Quiet elsewhere

Rising queries

huracán isaias
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tropical storm Rachel San Diego
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Rachel flash flood Southwest

What this means for restoration teams

The coastal wind and surge ticket from Friday night landfall near Destin is closed. Immediate work remains inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance under residual rain bands and the Southern Appalachians Moderate Risk. Treat any remaining tornado reports in the Carolinas Marginal Risk as narrow local surveys. On the West Coast, stage for potential flash flooding under the Rachel moisture and Tropical Storm Watch; do not treat San Diego County as a full hurricane landfall. Distinguish residual Tennessee Valley freshwater tickets from new Appalachian upslope work and from the separate Southwest pulse.

What this is not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. Rachel is a tropical-storm watch threat for extreme Southern California, not a major hurricane landfall. The organized hazards are the SPC Marginal risks in the Carolinas and Desert Southwest, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, and residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias and Rachel.

Looking ahead

Isaias remnants are expected to continue northeast and dissipate on Sunday. SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of Virginia and North Carolina for Sunday. Rachel is forecast to move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight and weaken rapidly over the Southwest on Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Appalachian rainfall totals and any expansion of the California products.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, dated late Saturday, October 10 / early Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 11, Marginal Risk parts of Carolinas and Desert Southwest); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California, updated 2331 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 PM CDT); National Hurricane Center Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 PM PDT). Prior desk: Saturday afternoon GA/SC Tornadoes & Rachel.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias and Rachel products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

Tropical: Post-tropical Isaias · TS Watch Rachel · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Isaias is now a post-tropical cyclone near 32.8N 86.8W as of the 10:00 AM CDT NHC final advisory, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama, moving NNW at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. All tropical warnings discontinued; WPC continues flood tracking.
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk has shifted eastward from the Panhandle/Big Bend to eastern Georgia into western and southern South Carolina for a tornado threat this afternoon into evening. No convective watches currently in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk for the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina) and portions of Southern California, down from yesterday’s High near the landfall corridor.
Tropical Storm Rachel is approaching with a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Center near 25.5N 119.6W as of 8:00 AM PDT, 520 miles SSW of San Diego, moving NE at 22 mph with 60 mph winds.
Overnight and morning Flash Flood Warnings were active in parts of coastal South Carolina and north-central Georgia. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land.

Live Status

As of Saturday morning, October 10, 2026, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues north-northwest across central Alabama. The primary organized threats have shifted to residual heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes on the eastern side of the circulation, plus the approaching Tropical Storm Rachel on the West Coast. SPC’s 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook maintains a Slight Risk from eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina. A couple of tornadoes are possible today over that corridor. WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC) holds Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians and over portions of Southern California. No tropical storm or hurricane warnings remain for the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Georgia into Western/Southern South Carolina

SPC Slight Risk covers roughly 34,500 square miles and about 3.5 million people, including Savannah, Columbia, Charleston, North Charleston, and Mount Pleasant. Midday analysis places the remnant circulation over central Alabama with a warm front extending eastward to the South Carolina coast. Destabilization in the warm sector supports scattered storms this afternoon. Enlarged hodographs support storm-scale rotation. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily during the diurnal heating cycle. A Marginal Risk continues tonight as the warm front advances northward, though uncertainty is high.

Restoration read: tornado swaths remain narrow. Staff as local surveys. Damaging wind gusts are possible with stronger cells. The broader water ticket is the continuing rain bands.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians

WPC Moderate Risk targets upslope regions from northeast Georgia into the Upstate of South Carolina and western North Carolina. Strong upslope flow with residual Isaias moisture supports heavy precip totals in the 3–5 inch range, with maximum totals of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. HREF and RRFS show high probabilities for 2-, 3-, and 5-inch amounts. Coastal Carolinas retain potential for isolated 5+ inch totals from coastal convergence. Flash flooding, landslides, and river rises are the primary concerns.

Restoration read: this is the main freshwater flood desk today. Wet drywall, extraction, and structural issues from saturated soils. Prioritize high-terrain and poor-drainage areas. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Southern California and Rachel

Tropical Storm Rachel is moving northeast at 22 mph toward northern Baja California and the Southern California border. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border northward to the San Diego/Orange County line. WPC Moderate Risk covers portions of Southern California as anomalous moisture is drawn northeast. 1–3 inches, locally higher, are forecast, increasing flash and urban flood potential tonight into Sunday. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for a few severe wind gusts and low-end tornado potential in the Lower Colorado River Valley into south-central Arizona as the system interacts with shear and moisture. Life-threatening surf and rip currents continue.

Restoration read: urban flooding and wind damage over higher terrain are the tickets. Coastal impacts are primarily surf and minor flooding rather than surge. No widespread structural wind damage expected from tropical-storm-force winds.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central Alabama / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 35 mph; NHC final advisory	Inland NNW at 10 mph
Eastern GA / western & southern SC	Brief tornadoes, damaging wind	SPC Slight	Active this afternoon into evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / W NC / Upstate SC)	Flash flood, 3–10 in possible	WPC Moderate ERO	Upslope heavy rain ongoing
Southern California coast / SW	Heavy rain, TS winds possible, surf	TS Watch; WPC Moderate ERO	Rachel approaching tonight
Desert Southwest / AZ	Severe wind gusts, isolated tornado	SPC Marginal	Increasing with Rachel interaction

What this means for restoration teams

Primary exposure is flash flooding and landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture, plus isolated tornado and wind damage in the eastern Georgia / South Carolina Slight Risk zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel drives urban and flash flooding, strong winds over higher terrain, and coastal surf impacts tonight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage is expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Stage extraction crews for the Appalachians and monitor San Diego for tonight’s rain onset.

Rising queries

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tropical storm rachel
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Rachel San Diego

Storm Hubs

Isaias 2026: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC 10 October 2026. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (0748 UTC / 426 AM EDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias final advisory (10:00 AM CDT). NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory 54 (8:00 AM PDT). NWS WWA summary. Previous desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Landfall Destin — Oct 9.

Informational only — not an official warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Post-Tropical Rachel (TS Watch) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What changed

Tornado Watch 679 expired at 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:57 p.m. CDT) dropped to Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening across the Carolinas and a few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest. No convective watches remain valid.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias as of WPC/NHC Public Advisory 18 at 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, is near 35.0N 86.7W, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Position advanced well north of the Birmingham area reported earlier; flood threat continues into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 p.m. PDT is near 30.0N 116.5W, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and pressure 987 mb. Now classified post-tropical; Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia into Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches with local 6–10 inches still possible; southern California rain increasing with Rachel moisture.
Active Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of western North Carolina (including Lake Lure / Chimney Rock area in Buncombe, Henderson, Rutherford counties) and central South Carolina (Aiken, Edgefield, Lexington, Saluda). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona (Pima, Pinal, Yuma counties) associated with Rachel moisture.

Live status

As of Saturday evening, October 10, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across central Tennessee toward the Tennessee Valley while weakening. The primary organized threat has shifted to residual heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially upslope into the Southern Appalachians. SPC notes scattered convection with an isolated tornado threat this evening across parts of the Carolinas along the eastern flank, supported by strong low-level shear, though the Slight Risk and Tornado Watch have expired. WPC Moderate excessive rainfall covers the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for extreme Southern California coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel is driving increasing rainfall and thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest, with Moderate flash flood risk on far southern California and isolated severe wind gusts possible in southern Arizona.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy precip totals of 3–5+ inches, with maximums of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings are active near Lake Lure and Chimney Rock; additional minor flooding and isolated landslides remain possible overnight. Flood Watches cover much of the region.

Carolinas (eastern Georgia residual into South Carolina and southern North Carolina): SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening with rotating cells in the moist airmass east of the Isaias remnants. Strong low-level shear supports brief tornadoes with semi-discrete cells, mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Flash Flood Warnings continue in central South Carolina. Threat diminishes overnight as the system moves northeast.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch remains on the San Diego County coastal areas. WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall covers portions of Southern California as Rachel moisture is drawn northeastward; probabilities of 2+ inches highest in far southern California overnight. Burn scars, dry washes, and urban areas most at risk. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 60 mph wind gusts are active in southern Arizona. Rachel expected onshore tonight.

Just-hit

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, Friday evening as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds before rapidly transitioning to post-tropical and weakening across the Florida Panhandle into Alabama and now Tennessee. Residual flash flooding and wind damage occurred Friday night into Saturday. Tornado Watch 679 produced confirmed tornadoes in Screven County, Georgia, and Allendale County, South Carolina, before expiring. Rachel remains offshore with no U.S. landfall yet; the center is expected to approach the Baja/border region tonight. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are ongoing.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)	Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall; active FFWs	Live, ongoing overnight
Carolinas (E SC / S NC)	Isolated tornadoes, residual heavy rain	SPC Marginal (tornado)	Evening threat, diminishing overnight
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, severe wind gusts	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego coastal); active SVR in AZ	Rachel approaching; increasing tonight
Central TN / Isaias center	Residual heavy rain, gusty wind	Post-tropical 25 mph	Inland NE at 16 mph, weakening
Rest of CONUS	No other organized severe	Marginal only in noted areas; no watches	Quiet elsewhere

Restoration read

Primary restoration exposure is flash flooding and potential landslides in the Southern Appalachians from residual Isaias moisture under the Moderate Risk, plus localized tornado and wind damage tickets from earlier in the Georgia–South Carolina zone. In Southern California and the Desert Southwest, Rachel will drive urban and flash flooding, strong winds, and coastal surf impacts overnight into Sunday. No widespread hurricane-force wind or storm-surge damage expected on U.S. land from current systems. Claims will be water-dominant with localized wind/tornado tickets. Sequence water extraction after the heaviest rates pass; do not stage in active flood or warning zones.

What this is not

This is not an active landfalling hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast. Isaias is post-tropical and inland; all tropical warnings have been discontinued. Rachel is post-tropical with a Tropical Storm Watch for extreme Southern California, not a hurricane or storm-surge warning. Severe risk is Marginal, not Slight or higher, and no convective watches are valid. The organized hazards are the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, residual isolated tornado threat in the Carolinas, and severe wind gusts in southern Arizona.

Looking ahead one day

Sunday (Day 2): SPC holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina, Virginia, southeast Maryland) for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the Isaias remnants continue northeast. Heavy rain and flash flood potential persist in the Appalachians. Rachel is expected to move inland over northern Baja and the southwestern United States tonight, bringing continued heavy rain, flash flooding, and strong winds to the Southwest and Great Basin before dissipating early Sunday. Isaias remnants are forecast to continue weakening.

Rising queries

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tropical storm Rachel San Diego
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Storm hubs

Isaias 2026 hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026

Rachel 2026 hub: Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook 0100 UTC 11 October 2026 (Marginal Risk Carolinas and Desert Southwest). WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (2331 UTC, Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California). NHC/WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 p.m. CDT). NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 p.m. PDT). Active NWS Flash Flood Warnings (Greenville-Spartanburg, Columbia) and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Tucson, Phoenix). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Remnants & Rachel — Oct 10 Morning

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias · Severe: Slight + Tornado Watch 679 · Flood: Moderate

What changed

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias remains near 33.5N 86.9W as of WPC Advisory 17 at 4:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, about 5 miles west of Birmingham, Alabama, moving NNE at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and minimum pressure 1007 mb. NHC has issued its final advisory; WPC continues flood tracking. All tropical warnings discontinued. Position advanced from earlier Saturday near 32.8N 86.8W at 35 mph.
SPC Tornado Watch 679 remains in effect until 8:00 p.m. EDT for portions of eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina. SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 3:00 p.m. CDT) maintains Slight Risk focused on eastern GA into southern and eastern SC for a few tornadoes into this evening, with significant tornado probability along the GA/SC border. Active Tornado Warnings issued this afternoon for Barnwell, Aiken, Burke, and related counties (radar-indicated and observed).
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1612 UTC) holds Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians (NE GA into Upstate SC and western NC) and portions of Southern California. Upslope totals of 3–5+ inches, locally 6–10 inches, remain the peak concern. Flash Flood Warnings active in portions of the Southeast.
Tropical Storm Rachel as of NHC Advisory 55A around 5:00 p.m. PDT is near 27.4N 116.7W, moving NNE at 30 mph with 65 mph winds and 989 mb. Tropical Storm Watch continues for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. Center expected to approach northern Baja this evening.
No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. Residual Flood Watches, High Wind Warnings, and Wind Advisories persist in the Southeast and Southern Appalachians; Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch remain in Southern California.

Live status

As of Saturday afternoon, October 10, 2026, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues north-northeast across central Alabama near Birmingham and is forecast to accelerate northeast into the Tennessee Valley while dissipating. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized maxima of 10 inches are possible across the Southern Appalachians from northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas and from the upper coast of South Carolina into eastern North Carolina. Additional 1 to 2 inches are expected across the remainder of the Southeast into northern Florida. Flash, urban, and river flooding remains possible, with considerable impacts including landslides across the Southern Appalachians. Significant river flooding on the western Florida Panhandle will crest today through Sunday.

Tornado Watch 679 is live for eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina until 8:00 p.m. EDT. SPC notes the risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina, with the greatest potential near the GA/SC border and conditional support for a strong tornado. Tornado Warnings have been issued this afternoon for radar-indicated and confirmed rotation in counties including Barnwell SC, Aiken SC, and Burke GA. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest associated with Rachel interaction.

WPC maintains the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on the Southern Appalachians and on portions of Southern California as moisture associated with Rachel is drawn northeastward. Concentrated precipitation is expected later today into tonight as Rachel approaches the northern Baja/Southern California coast. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, is expected in portions of the Southwest this weekend, supporting increasing flash-flood coverage.

Hotspots

Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow supports 3–5+ inches, with maximum totals of 6–10 inches possible across far western North Carolina into the Upstate of South Carolina. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are possible. High wind warnings remain in elevated terrain.

Eastern Georgia into western and southern South Carolina: SPC Slight Risk plus Tornado Watch 679 for tornadoes and isolated damaging winds. Warm-sector thunderstorms can produce brief tornadoes, especially near the Georgia/South Carolina border this afternoon into evening. Active Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect in portions of the area this afternoon.

Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch on the San Diego County coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel drives the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Southern California, with increasing flash-flood potential later today into tonight. Marginal severe wind gust risk noted by SPC in parts of the Lower Colorado River Valley into south-central Arizona. Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch in effect.

Central Alabama / Florida Panhandle residual: Center of the post-tropical system is near Birmingham. Residual heavy rain and isolated flash flooding continue along the inland track and in leftover banding. Coastal tropical warnings have ended; high wind warnings and wind advisories remain for parts of the Southeast and elevated terrain.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC)	Flash flood, landslides, 3–10 in upslope	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live, ramping today
Eastern GA / western & southern SC	Brief tornadoes, damaging wind, flash flood	SPC Slight + Tornado Watch 679 to 8 p.m. EDT; active Tornado & Flash Flood Warnings	Live watch and warnings, afternoon–evening peak
Southern California coast / Desert Southwest	Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, coastal flood	WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego County); Coastal Flood Warning / Flood Watch	Increasing tonight
Central AL / FL Panhandle residual	Residual heavy rain, isolated flood, wind gusts	Post-tropical 30 mph near Birmingham; high wind warnings	Ongoing, weakening
Rest of CONUS severe board	No other organized severe	Marginal only in SW; no other watches	Quiet elsewhere

Rising queries

huracán isaias
isaias remnants flood
tornado watch South Carolina
tropical storm Rachel San Diego
southern Appalachians flooding

What this means for restoration teams

The coastal wind and surge ticket from Friday night landfall near Destin is largely closed. Immediate work shifts inland to freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance under residual rain bands and the Southern Appalachians Moderate Risk. Treat any tornado reports in the Georgia–South Carolina Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 679 (including current warnings) as narrow local surveys. On the West Coast, stage for potential flash flooding under the Rachel moisture and Tropical Storm Watch; do not treat San Diego County as a full hurricane landfall. Distinguish residual Florida Panhandle/Alabama freshwater tickets from new Appalachian upslope work and from the separate Southwest pulse.

What this is not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. Rachel is a tropical-storm watch threat for extreme Southern California, not a major hurricane landfall. The organized hazards are the SPC Slight tornado risk and Tornado Watch 679 (with active warnings) in Georgia and South Carolina, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, and residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias.

Looking ahead

Isaias remnants are expected to continue north-northeast into the Tennessee Valley and dissipate on Sunday. SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and southeast Maryland for Sunday afternoon and evening. Rachel is forecast to move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight and weaken rapidly over the Southwest on Sunday, likely becoming post-tropical by Sunday morning. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Appalachian rainfall totals and any expansion of the California products.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, dated Saturday, October 10, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC, Slight Risk eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina) and Tornado Watch 679; active NWS Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings in GA/SC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California, updated 1612 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 17 (4:00 p.m. CDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory 55A. Prior desk: Friday evening Isaias landfall near Destin.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias products and the latest Rachel advisory.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026

October 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Landfall Destin — Oct 9

Tropical: Hurricane Warning live · Severe: Slight · Flood: High

This is the Friday evening Storm Tracker desk for October 9, 2026. Hurricane Isaias has made landfall near Destin, Florida. The center is now inland over the western Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds and flash-flooding threats are spreading inland. The Storm Prediction Center 0100 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:58 p.m. CDT Friday, keeps a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Tornado Watch 678 is live until 6:00 a.m. EDT Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center holds a High Risk of excessive rainfall from the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia, with a Moderate Risk nearer the track. Restoration exposure remains wind and surge on the coast, freshwater flooding inland, tornadoes in the eastern bands, and trees on roofs and lines as the circulation moves north.

What changed

Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, around 8:30 p.m. CDT as a Category 2 with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. By the 10:00 p.m. CDT advisory the center was inland near 30.8N 86.5W, about 45 miles east-northeast of Pensacola, with winds down to 90 mph and motion north at 20 mph.
Tornado Watch 677 has been replaced by Tornado Watch 678, issued at 8:50 p.m. EDT and valid until 6:00 a.m. EDT Saturday for portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southern Georgia. A couple of tornadoes remain possible in the outer rain bands.
WPC upgraded the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. A High Risk now covers the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia for a training band capable of 3–6 inches per hour and double-digit totals. A Moderate Risk continues nearer the track from the Panhandle into southern Alabama.
Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Storm Surge Warning runs from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Suwannee River. Some western portions of earlier warnings have been discontinued as the center moves inland.
SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area is now about 18,129 square miles and 1.1 million people, focused on Tallahassee, Dothan, Valdosta and nearby centers. No other organized severe area exists on the board.

What is live this evening

National Hurricane Center Advisory 14 at 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday places the center of Hurricane Isaias near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 86.5 West, about 45 miles east-northeast of Pensacola and about 65 miles northwest of Panama City. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles; tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. Minimum pressure is 982 mb. On the forecast track the center moves across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday. Continued weakening is expected, but gusty winds will persist well inland through Saturday even after the system becomes post-tropical.

Storm-surge heights if the peak arrives near high tide: 3–5 feet from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Aucilla River, Florida; 2–4 feet from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River and in Mobile Bay. Hurricane conditions, particularly in gusts, are expected through early Saturday within the Hurricane Warning area. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Rainfall of 4–8 inches is forecast from Friday through the weekend across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches in banding, especially the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Another 2–5 inches is expected across much of the remainder of the Southeast, locally up to 10 inches toward the southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas.

SPC’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook notes the center of Isaias is currently near the Florida coast. Thunderstorms associated with the hurricane will move inland this evening into the overnight. Rotating cells could be associated with a tornado threat, mainly from the Florida Panhandle northward into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs in the Florida Panhandle show strong low-level shear with large looped hodographs. Tornado Watch 678 covers the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and far southern Georgia until 6:00 a.m. EDT. Primary threat language is a couple of tornadoes possible.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 8:59 p.m. EDT Friday and valid 01Z–12Z Saturday, carries a High Risk from the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia. Core convection is diminishing, but a training band of deluge is expected to be efficient from roughly 06Z onward east of Apalachicola, with access to 2000+ J/kg CAPE and 25–50 kt shear. Hourly amounts of 3–6 inches and storm totals of 10+ inches are possible if the band trains. A Moderate Risk remains nearer the track from the Panhandle into southern Alabama. Numerous instances of flash flooding are likely, some significant.

Hotspot 1 — Western Florida Panhandle landfall corridor

Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Crestview, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze and Navarre sit in the immediate wind and surge corridor. The center crossed the Okaloosa County coast near Destin around 8:30 p.m. CDT. Extreme Wind Warnings and Flash Flood Emergencies were issued earlier in the evening for southern Okaloosa and adjacent counties. Hundreds of thousands of customers are already without power across Florida and Alabama.

Restoration read: coastal tickets are wind plus saltwater inundation. Do not treat this as a daytime roof walk. Stage extraction and board-up outside the surge zone. Inland tickets behind the coast are roof, siding and trees once the wind field arrives. Photograph only if it is safe and the warning allows it.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Panhandle, Big Bend and southwest Georgia bands

Panama City, Apalachicola, Tallahassee, Cross City, Valdosta and Thomasville sit under Tornado Watch 678 and the WPC High Risk. SPC expects the main tornado threat this evening and overnight with supercells east of the hurricane core interacting with a surface warm front. The training band east of Apalachicola is the rainfall maximum threat.

Restoration read: tornado swaths are narrow. Staff them as local surveys. The water ticket is wider. A training band is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water gets inside. Turn around, don’t drown, on low crossings in the Big Bend and southwest Georgia tonight.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast Alabama and the inland track

Dothan, Ozark and far southeast Alabama remain inside the Slight Risk. Southern Alabama sits in the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall area. Farther north, central Alabama and the Tennessee Valley are the Saturday wind and water desk as the center tracks inland. Tropical Storm Warnings cover a broad swath of Alabama.

Restoration read: southeast Alabama can take both a tornado and a flood ticket tonight. Central Alabama is more of a Saturday water and tree desk. Do not send the same crew to the Panhandle surge zone and the Dothan band without checking which county has the warning now.

Just hit

SPC’s preliminary local storm report page for the Friday 12 UTC cycle showed limited filtered reports at desk time; hurricane-related wind reports are not decoded into the standard LSR table. Flash Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Emergencies are active across the western Panhandle and southern Alabama. Morning companion for this date: Storm Updates: Isaias Slight Tornado Risk, Gulf Landfall Tonight — Friday, October 9, 2026 (Morning). Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Western FL Panhandle near Destin / Pensacola	Hurricane wind, surge 3–5 ft, heavy rain	Hurricane Warning; center inland 90 mph	Landfall complete; winds spreading inland
FL Panhandle / Big Bend / far S Georgia	Tornadoes in bands, extreme rain rates	Slight + Tornado Watch 678 to 6 a.m. EDT; WPC High	Live watch and High flood risk
Southern Alabama	Heavy rain, residual wind	WPC Moderate; Tropical Storm Warning inland	Ongoing overnight
Rest of the U.S. severe board	No other organized severe area	No other watches	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Tonight’s board is a completed hurricane landfall plus a continuing tornado watch on the east side, not a plains squall line. Hurricane-force wind is roof, structure and long power-outage work near the coast and up to about 100 miles inland into southern Alabama. Surge is a different ticket from rain: saltwater, contents and dry-out on the immediate coast. The High flood risk is freshwater on top of that, especially if the eastern band trains. A tornado, if one occurs inside Watch 678, is a narrow swath for a damage survey.

For teams already in the warning area: finish exterior work and get to shelter. Do not plan an arrival inside the hurricane warning tonight. For teams outside it: stage toward Saturday morning inland of the surge, not toward the beaches after dark. Property owners should follow local evacuation orders, then photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. It is not a Midwest outbreak. Landfall has occurred; the center is inland. It is not a verified multi-tornado outbreak yet; filtered LSRs remain limited. Do not invent a damage path. The hazards that are organized are the Hurricane Warning, the Storm Surge Warning, Tornado Watch 678, the SPC Slight Risk, and the WPC High and Moderate flood risks.

Looking ahead

Saturday remains a tornado day on the east side of the circulation. The SPC Day 2 outlook keeps a Slight Risk from the Florida Big Bend across much of southern and central Georgia into central South Carolina. A few tornadoes are possible from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday evening. NHC expects continued weakening, with the system likely post-tropical by late Saturday as it moves toward Tennessee and the central Appalachians. Rain and residual wind, not a second Gulf landfall, are the Saturday–Sunday inland story. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than treating 6 a.m. EDT as the end of the tornado window.

Rising queries

Google Trends (US, evening of 9 Oct 2026) shows rising interest tied to the landfall: “hurricane storm isaias” (200K+ searches, active), “huracán isaias” (top trending), “tornado watch” variants, “high wind warning” and “Florida Panhandle power outage.”

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all dated Friday, October 9, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (updated 00:58 UTC Oct 10); Tornado Watch 678 (issued 0050 UTC Oct 10, expires 1000 UTC Oct 10); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0128 UTC Oct 10); National Hurricane Center Hurricane Isaias Advisory 14 at 10:00 p.m. CDT. Morning desk: Friday, October 9, 2026 morning Storm Updates. Hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for the latest Isaias advisory.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Isaias Slight Tornado Risk, Gulf Landfall Tonight — Friday, October 9, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Friday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 9, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window moved from a small Iowa hail threat to the northern Gulf Coast. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across northern Florida, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. The driver is Hurricane Isaias, still offshore. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia.

Isaias has not made U.S. landfall. National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 11A, corrected, at 7:00 a.m. CDT places the center near 27.0N 87.7W, about 245 miles south of Pensacola and about 170 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, movement north-northeast near 15 mph, minimum pressure 958 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. NHC says Isaias is on the cusp of major-hurricane strength, is likely to become a major hurricane this morning, and is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane at landfall this evening or tonight inside the warning area. Preparations in the storm-surge and hurricane warning areas should be completed within the next few hours.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale hazards until the core comes ashore. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll. Conditions change with the next advisory.

What is live this morning

SPC lists no convective watches currently valid. The watch board’s most recent number, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, was a west-central Texas watch from the afternoon of September 30 and expired at midnight CDT that night. It is not a live product. The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Tornado potential is forecast to increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, as eastern rainbands spread north and low-level winds and storm-relative helicity strengthen. SPC also notes some enhancement to the wind field, including a convective influence, across southern Alabama near the evolving inverted surface trough late this afternoon into tonight.

The Slight Risk area covers about 25,034 square miles and roughly 1.97 million people. Larger centers named by SPC include Tallahassee, Dothan, Pensacola, Valdosta, and Panama City. The surrounding Marginal Risk covers about 42,289 square miles and roughly 3.98 million people, with larger centers including Jacksonville, Mobile, Savannah, Gainesville, and Albany. NHC tornado language is narrower in time: a tornado risk beginning late this afternoon and continuing tonight in coastal Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia, then continuing Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Tropical warnings are the live watch equivalent this morning. A Storm Surge Warning runs from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River. A Hurricane Warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings cover the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs, and the Florida coast east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River. A Storm Surge Watch continues from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Florida. Intermediate Advisory 11A corrected the surge values. If the peak coincides with high tide, water could reach 6 to 9 feet above ground from the Alabama/Florida border to Grayton Beach; 4 to 6 feet from Dauphin Island to the Alabama/Florida border and in Mobile Bay; 4 to 7 feet from Grayton Beach to Indian Pass; 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River; 3 to 5 feet from Steinhatchee to the Suwannee and from the Mouth of the Mississippi to Dauphin Island; and 2 to 4 feet from the Suwannee to Yankeetown.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning tonight into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning in the next few hours from the 7:00 a.m. CDT advisory.

Overnight into this morning

The convective day that closed at 1159 UTC this morning did not produce a tornado or wind report on the SPC filtered log. It did produce hail. The overnight reports sit on yesterday’s Iowa Marginal Risk, not on the Gulf. SPC lists 1.00-inch hail 2 miles south of Sioux Center, Iowa, at 0226 UTC; 1.50-inch hail at Panora in Guthrie County at 0237 UTC; 1.00-inch hail at Orange City; 1.00-inch hail at Redfield in Dallas County at 0305 UTC; 1.50-inch hail at Ireton; 1.25-inch hail at Wall Lake in Sac County at 0320 UTC; 1.50-inch hail at Cherokee at 0337 UTC; 1.25-inch hail west of Norwalk in Warren County at 0401 UTC; 1.50-inch hail at Alcester in Union County, South Dakota, at 0532 UTC; and a measured 1.00-inch hail on the 200 block of Lloyd Street in Lake City, Calhoun County, at 0552 UTC. Those are preliminary local storm reports. They are the just-hit record from last night. They are not a continuing Iowa watch.

Thursday evening flash-flood products on the national summary were short-fused and have expired for this desk. Jacksonville issued a flash flood warning for east-central Nassau County, including Fernandina Beach, Yulee, and Amelia City, at 5:19 p.m. EDT Thursday, with 2 to 4 inches already down and another 1 to 2 inches possible, until 7:00 p.m. EDT. Honolulu issued a flash flood warning for Oahu at 10:21 a.m. HST Thursday after water over Kamehameha Highway on the North Shore, until 1:15 p.m. HST. Neither is a live warning this morning. Storm-surge warnings on the northern Gulf Coast from Thursday evening remain the standing coastal product and match the NHC warning.

Water pulse

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0825 UTC and discussed at 4:28 a.m. EDT, keeps a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia, valid 12 UTC Friday through 12 UTC Saturday. WPC says numerous instances of flash flooding are likely, some significant, and that the outlook is consistent with the previous forecast. Heavier rain rates ramp up closer to landfall and after, as the strongest instability in the southeast quadrant reaches the coast. The flash-flood threat should increase markedly from late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Two corridors matter. Inner-core and eyewall rain is the coastal problem in southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, highest closest to the coast. Farther east, a training band along the instability gradient can sit about 200 miles east of the landfall point. WPC says that band has better access to instability and deep tropical moisture, can produce double-digit totals of 10 inches or more if it trains, and may hold the event maximum. The Moderate Risk was nudged slightly east, including the chance the band sets up east of Tallahassee at times, and extended into southwest Georgia at least 100 miles inland. Inland along the track into eastern Mississippi and central Alabama stays at Slight for now, because shear is increasing and the inland flash-flood reach depends on whether the core holds together. NHC rainfall through the weekend is 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches in banding across the Panhandle and Big Bend. Much of the rest of the Southeast is forecast at 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches possible in the southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. River flooding is also expected, some of it significant.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Northern Gulf Coast (MS / AL / FL Panhandle)	Hurricane wind, storm surge, heavy rain tonight	Hurricane Warning; Storm Surge Warning; NHC Advisory 11A	Warnings up; center still offshore
FL Panhandle / SE Alabama / SW Georgia	Tornado in outer bands; damaging wind near the trough	SPC Slight; tornado risk late today into tonight	Live outlook, no convective watch
East of landfall, Big Bend into SW Georgia	Training rain, flash flood, local 10–15 inches	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Ramp late afternoon into tonight
Eastern Mississippi / central Alabama	Inland rain along the track if the core holds	WPC Slight	Track-dependent
Iowa / southeast South Dakota	Hail to 1.50 inches overnight	Yesterday’s Marginal; reports only	Expired overnight pulse
Rest of the CONUS severe map	No general thunderstorm watch	No convective watch valid	Quiet outside the Gulf corridor

Restoration read

This morning is still a prep window, and it is closing. The first exposure on the northern Gulf Coast is life-safety surge and wind, not a ticket count. Hurricane-force wind is a small radius, about 30 miles from the center, so structural wind damage will be concentrated near the landfall point inside the hurricane warning from Ocean Springs to the Bay/Gulf County line. Tropical-storm-force wind reaches much farther, out to about 185 miles, and that is the power, tree, and soft-roof radius that will show up well away from the eye. Surge of 6 to 9 feet above ground, if it verifies from the Alabama/Florida border to Grayton Beach, is the coastal floor and marina problem. It is not a uniform flood across the whole warning.

Water is the broader restoration pulse, and it is offset from the center. WPC is explicit that the training band east of landfall, on the order of 200 miles east, can hold the rainfall maximum. Crews that staff only the landfall pin will miss the flash-flood ground in the Florida Big Bend, around Tallahassee, and into southwest Georgia. Saturated roads, underpasses, and small creeks are the overnight into Saturday problem. River flooding follows. Iowa hail is a closed overnight note: roof and vehicle checks in Guthrie, Sioux, Sac, Cherokee, Dallas, Warren, and Calhoun counties, and at Alcester, South Dakota, not a new dispatch.

Do not treat a Slight Risk as a watch. SPC has not issued a tornado watch yet. The tornado window in NHC language opens late this afternoon in coastal Alabama, the Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. If a watch goes up on the 1630 UTC outlook cycle, that is the afternoon desk’s update, not a fact this morning.

Looking ahead

Landfall is forecast tonight or early Saturday inside the hurricane warning. After landfall, gusty winds are expected well inland over the Southeast as the wind field grows in the trough interaction. Saturday’s tornado threat shifts across eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Rain of 2 to 5 inches, locally 10, reaches the southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas through the weekend. The next complete NHC advisory is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. CDT. The next SPC Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 1300 UTC, issued 7:57 a.m. CDT Friday, October 9, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current watches, updated 11:40 UTC, no watches valid: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC storm reports for the convective day ending 1159 UTC October 9: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0825 UTC Friday: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory 11A, corrected, 7:00 a.m. CDT: nhc.noaa.gov
NWS watches, warnings, and advisories summary: weather.gov/wwamap
Prior desk, Thursday afternoon, October 8, 2026: Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida and Iowa Marginal

Disclaimer

This is a morning snapshot from official National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products. It is not a warning, not a watch, and not a substitute for local emergency management. Hurricane, storm-surge, tropical-storm, tornado, and flash-flood products can be issued or canceled between desk cycles. Check weather.gov and hurricanes.gov for the county or ZIP before you travel or stage.

October 9, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida and Iowa Marginal — Thursday, October 8, 2026

This is the Thursday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 8, 2026. The organized severe window is still small. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:32 p.m. CDT, keeps a Marginal risk on the central Florida peninsula and on Iowa, and it made no changes from the late-morning forecast. No convective watches and no mesoscale discussions are in effect as of 21:14 UTC. The story that is organized is not a plains outbreak. It is Hurricane Isaias, still over the central Gulf, with hurricane and storm-surge warnings already posted for the northern Gulf Coast ahead of a late Friday or early Saturday landfall.

Restoration exposure this afternoon is mostly prep, not tickets. Florida still has water on saturated ground. Iowa has a hail chance after dark that has not verified. The Gulf Coast has a wind, surge, tree, and roof problem that is forecast, not yet onshore. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC lists a Marginal risk of about 37,970 square miles and roughly 5.86 million people, with larger centers including Tampa, St. Petersburg, Des Moines, Clearwater, and Lakeland. The Florida slice is a 2 percent tornado probability on the central peninsula. The Iowa slice is a 5 percent hail probability. SPC did not draw a damaging-wind risk area on this update. The watches page, refreshed 21:14 UTC, says no watches are currently valid. The most recent archived convective watch is 676. Mesoscale discussions: none in effect as of 21:12 UTC.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC and valid through 12 UTC Friday, holds a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida peninsula. A stalled front is still the driver. North Florida soils are called fully saturated after consecutive wet days. WPC’s read is isolated flash flooding where convection fires, with a better chance over a larger city such as Tampa or Orlando, and broader ponding in poor-drainage and urban spots. Most of the rain is expected to stay light to moderate.

National Hurricane Center Advisory 9, 4:00 p.m. CDT, placed the eye of Hurricane Isaias near 24.4N 89.3W, about 325 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were near 100 mph, movement northeast near 12 mph, pressure 975 mb. Hurricane-force winds extended only about 15 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extended out to about 125 miles. The forecast track still calls for landfall along the northern Gulf Coast inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Isaias is not on U.S. land this afternoon.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River. A Hurricane Warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings cover the Louisiana coast from the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish line to west of Ocean Springs, and the Florida coast east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River. A Storm Surge Watch continues from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. NHC surge heights, if the peak arrives at high tide: 5 to 7 feet from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass and in Mobile Bay; 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River; 3 to 5 feet from the Mouth of the Mississippi to Ocean Springs and from the Steinhatchee River to the Suwannee River; 2 to 4 feet from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown. Local NWS products already in force this afternoon include a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning for Baldwin County, Alabama, with NWS Mobile citing a peak wind forecast of 50 to 65 mph and gusts to 90 mph on the Baldwin coast, and a window for tropical-storm-force wind Friday afternoon into early Saturday.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Gulf Coast: Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

This is the warning desk, not a live severe-thunderstorm watch. Cities and counties inside or beside the hurricane warning include Ocean Springs and coastal Jackson County in Mississippi; Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, including Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan; and the Florida Panhandle west of the Bay/Gulf County line. NHC expects hurricane conditions inside the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical-storm conditions beginning Friday. Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is forecast at 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia, with localized totals up to 15 inches in banding. An isolated tornado risk is timed to begin Friday night along the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coasts and far southwestern Georgia, then continue Saturday farther inland.

Restoration read: this is a prep window, not a claims pile. Stage tarps, generators, tree crews, and drying capacity before tropical-storm-force wind arrives Friday. Surge and saturated ground will argue the water jobs; wind and trees will argue the roof and exterior jobs. Do not treat this afternoon’s quiet radar as a cancelled landfall.

Hotspot 2 — Central Florida peninsula

SPC’s Florida Marginal sits on a residual frontal zone across the middle of the peninsula, generally near and north of a cloud shield, with filtered sun south of the I-4 corridor. Dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s. Effective shear is only moderate, about 25 to 30 knots, with a veering profile. The hazard language is a brief tornado or waterspout near the front, not a wind outbreak. Population anchors named on the outlook include Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Lakeland, and Brandon. WPC keeps the same peninsula in a Marginal excessive-rainfall risk, and it flags Tampa and Orlando if a heavier core sets up over the city.

Restoration read: water first, and only where a cell actually sits. North Florida ground is already wet. A brief spin-up is a local warning problem, not a multi-county tarp campaign. Check the county warning before you move a crew off a standing job.

Hotspot 3 — Iowa tonight

The Iowa Marginal is a tonight problem, not an afternoon line. SPC expects isolated to scattered elevated storms as warm advection increases northeast of a warm front, with around 1,000 J/kg of elevated instability and effective shear increasing to 40 knots or more in the cloud-bearing layer. The hazard is a few elevated supercells late this evening into the overnight, and a few instances of marginally severe hail. Named centers on the 5 percent hail area include Des Moines, Sioux City, Waterloo, Ames, and West Des Moines. The areal outline also brushes neighboring Missouri Valley points toward Omaha and Sioux Falls, but the categorical Marginal on the 20Z update is drawn on Iowa.

Restoration read: hail, if it verifies, is a morning roof and auto ticket, not a tonight extraction job. No hail reports are on the SPC log for this convective day yet. Do not pre-position as if a watch were already up.

Just hit

SPC’s storm-report page for October 8, covering 1200 UTC today through 1159 UTC Friday, showed no tornado reports, no hail reports, and no wind reports as of this afternoon pull. Yesterday’s convective day closed with no severe areas forecast on the 0100 UTC outlook. There is no new local-storm ticket stack to inherit. The work that is already on the books is Florida’s multi-day rain on saturated ground, not a fresh severe-thunderstorm damage list. Isaias has not made U.S. landfall. Advisory 9 still has the center about 325 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Northern Gulf Coast (MS / AL / FL Panhandle)	Hurricane wind, storm surge, heavy rain Friday night	Hurricane Warning; Storm Surge Warning; NHC Advisory 9	Warnings up; center still offshore
Central Florida peninsula	Brief tornado or waterspout; urban flooding	SPC Marginal (2% tornado); WPC Marginal rain	Live marginal, no watch
Iowa	Marginally severe hail late tonight	SPC Marginal (5% hail)	Tonight, not yet reported
North Florida flood ground	Runoff on saturated soil	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Ongoing water, isolated
Rest of the CONUS severe desk	No organized wind or hail watch	No convective watches; no MDs	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Split the board. Gulf Coast crews should finish exterior prep today while roads are still open. NWS Mobile’s Baldwin County product already tells residents to finish protection before tropical-storm-force wind and to leave if an evacuation order is issued. That is the operational clock, not a same-day tarp run. Florida peninsula crews stay on the water jobs that are already wet, and they answer a warning only if one is issued for their county. Iowa can wait for a hail report before anyone treats it as a roof day. A Marginal risk without a watch and without a local storm report is a planning note.

The argument on the job, once Isaias is inland, will be wind versus water. Surge and rainfall will compete with roof and tree damage inside the same ZIP. Photograph only when it is safe. Do not send the same crew to a Florida urban-flood call and a Panhandle surge zone without checking which warning is actually in effect.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. SPC did not draw a wind risk area on the 20Z Day 1 outlook, and no severe thunderstorm watch is valid. This is not a U.S. landfall yet. Isaias is a hurricane over the Gulf with warnings posted for a landfall that NHC still times late Friday or early Saturday. It is not an Iowa outbreak this afternoon. The hail chance is elevated, overnight, and still unverified. No tornado, hail, or wind reports are on today’s SPC log.

Looking ahead one day

SPC’s 1730 UTC Day 2 outlook, issued 12:25 p.m. CDT, places a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms late Friday through Friday night across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend and adjacent southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, tied to tornado potential east and southeast of Isaias. The same discussion notes that later outlooks could reduce those probabilities if the track or the timing of inland destabilization changes. NHC rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, local 15, and the existing surge warning are the Friday-night restoration problem if the track holds. Iowa’s hail chance belongs to tonight, not to Friday’s Gulf landfall.

Sources

SPC Day 1 convective outlook, 2000 UTC update, 2:32 p.m. CDT October 8, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC current convective watches, updated 21:14 UTC October 8, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
SPC current mesoscale discussions, updated 21:12 UTC October 8, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
SPC today’s storm reports, October 8, 2026: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/261008_rpts.html
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC October 8, 2026: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NHC Hurricane Isaias Advisory 9, 4:00 p.m. CDT October 8, 2026: nhc.noaa.gov
NWS watches and warnings text, national summary: weather.gov WWA summary
Morning Storm Tracker, October 8, 2026: Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida Marginal — Thursday morning

Informational only — not an official warning. Turn around, don’t drown. Use weather.gov and spc.noaa.gov for the county you are standing in.

October 8, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida Marginal — Thursday, October 8, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Thursday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 8, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed, then the 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook opened two small marginal areas. The live story is not a plains watch. It is Hurricane Isaias, now an 80 mph hurricane in the central Gulf of America, with hurricane and storm surge warnings already up on the northern Gulf Coast for a late Friday or early Saturday landfall.

The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:46 a.m. CDT and valid 1300 UTC Thursday through 1200 UTC Friday, carries a Marginal Risk across parts of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of the Upper Midwest and middle Missouri Valley. SPC had no convective watches in effect at 13:21 UTC. The most recently issued watch is 676, and it is not valid. Today’s SPC storm-report page, covering 1200 UTC Thursday through 1159 UTC Friday, had received no tornado, hail, or wind reports at the morning scan. The overnight 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 7:58 p.m. CDT Wednesday, carried no severe thunderstorm areas through daybreak.

These are county-scale warnings and a named tropical cyclone, not a scattered high-plains hail chase. Restoration exposure through Saturday is surge, wind, and interior water on the central Gulf Coast, plus a localized Florida flood pulse that is already on saturated ground. Conditions change with the next advisory. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 7A, 7:00 a.m. CDT, places Hurricane Isaias near 23.7N 90.6W, about 175 miles north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph. Minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Motion is east-northeast at 9 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. Hurricane Hunters were investigating the storm at advisory time.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Hurricane Warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning covers the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line, Louisiana, to west of Ocean Springs, and east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch continues from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, Florida. No watch or warning changes were made on the 7 a.m. intermediate advisory. Preparations along the warning area should be rushed to completion today. Landfall is forecast along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the coast Friday night.

Peak surge heights above ground, if the peak coincides with high tide: Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, 5 to 7 feet; Mobile Bay, 5 to 7 feet; mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, 3 to 5 feet; Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, 4 to 6 feet; Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, 2 to 4 feet; Lake Pontchartrain, 1 to 3 feet. The deepest water is expected along the immediate coast near and east of landfall, with large waves on top of the surge.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Gulf Coast hurricane warning

This is the warning, not a watch. Hurricane conditions are expected inside the Hurricane Warning Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical-storm conditions beginning Friday. Cities and counties on the warning corridor include Ocean Springs and the Mississippi coast east of there, coastal Alabama including Mobile Bay, and the Florida Panhandle through Bay County: Panama City, Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach, and Lynn Haven sit inside the local hurricane and storm surge warning language from the Tallahassee office. Tropical-storm conditions are expected farther west into southeast Louisiana and farther east toward the Aucilla River.

Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is forecast at 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Amounts of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, and isolated river flooding, are possible. Isolated tornadoes are possible Friday night in coastal Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwestern Georgia, then Saturday across eastern Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida.

Restoration read: surge and wind first, water second. Roof, siding, awning, and porch damage is the Friday-night ticket where hurricane-force gusts verify. Surge flooding is a life-safety event before it is a drying job. Do not stage crews into the warning area once tropical-storm-force winds arrive. The interior water clock starts after the surge recedes and rainfall trains inland Saturday into the Tennessee Valley. Photograph only if it is safe and daylight remains.

Hotspot 2 — Florida Peninsula marginal tornado and flood

SPC’s categorical Marginal Risk on the middle Florida Peninsula is a 2 percent tornado probability, not a wind or hail area. Population centers named on the tornado graphic include Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Lakeland, and Brandon, about 4.2 million people inside roughly 7,900 square miles. Storms are focusing along a convectively reinforced front from the eastern Gulf across the middle Peninsula. Tampa Bay radar wind profiles sampled weak low-level flow with moderate directional turning and a speed increase above 3 km, netting about 25 to 30 knots of effective shear. SPC notes a low-confidence chance of a near-shore waterspout or a brief tornado inland near the front. That is not a high-confidence severe day. It is a brief-spin risk on an already wet front.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC and valid 12 UTC Thursday through 12 UTC Friday, keeps a Marginal Risk over much of the Florida Peninsula. A stalled front is still the driver. North Florida soils are fully saturated after consecutive rain days, so light to moderate rain converts to runoff. Isolated flash flooding is most likely where convection develops over a larger city such as Tampa or Orlando. Broader issues are poor drainage and urban streets, not a regional river flood. No Slight or Moderate excessive-rainfall area is on the Day 1 map.

Restoration read: Florida today is extraction on saturated ground and a brief tornado survey if one verifies near the front. It is not the Gulf landfall. Keep the Peninsula crew separate from the Panhandle warning.

Hotspot 3 — Iowa and the middle Missouri Valley tonight

The second Marginal Risk is elevated hail, not a daytime surface outbreak. SPC places a 5 percent hail probability over about 30,100 square miles and 1.7 million people, including Des Moines, Sioux City, Waterloo, Ames, and West Des Moines. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected tonight as warm advection and isentropic ascent increase northeast of a warm front. Moisture is modest. Mid-level moistening on the edge of the Plains elevated mixed layer is enough for a hail threat, not a damaging-wind area. No wind probabilities were drawn on the 1300 UTC outlook.

Restoration read: this is an overnight hail ticket if it verifies, roof and auto glass, not a watch-box wind event. Do not staff it like a Great Lakes slight risk. Check local warnings after dark before rolling.

Watches that expired versus what is still live

No SPC convective watch is live this morning. Wednesday’s afternoon desk already had a closed severe window, and the 0100 UTC update kept that closed through daybreak. The products that are live are tropical, not convective: the hurricane warning, the storm surge warning, the tropical storm warnings, and the storm surge watch listed above. Alaska winter-storm and high-wind warnings are in effect for parts of the Brooks Range, the Bering Strait coast, and the Alaska Range. Those are not the CONUS restoration pulse this desk is tracking.

Just-hit reports from last night are thin. SPC logged no severe reports on the Thursday page at the morning scan, consistent with the no-severe overnight outlook. The just-hit story is intensification, not damage: Isaias was a 65 mph tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon’s desk and is an 80 mph hurricane at 7 a.m. CDT, pressure down to 975 mb. No U.S. landfall has occurred. Swells reach the Yucatan later today and the Gulf Coast on Friday.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NHC / WPC level	Status this morning
Ocean Springs to Bay/Gulf County line	Hurricane wind, surge 5–7 ft, rain 3–7 in	Hurricane Warning; Storm Surge Warning	Live; landfall late Friday or early Saturday
SE Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs; east of Bay/Gulf line to Aucilla River	Tropical-storm wind, surge 3–5 ft west, 4–6 ft east	Tropical Storm Warning	Live; conditions Friday
Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown	Surge 2–4 ft	Storm Surge Watch	Watch, not a warning
Middle Florida Peninsula	Brief tornado or waterspout, urban flood	SPC Marginal (2% tornado); WPC Marginal	Live today; no watch
Iowa / middle Missouri Valley	Elevated hail tonight	SPC Marginal (5% hail)	Tonight; no wind area, no watch
CONUS severe watches	None	No SPC watch valid	Watch 676 expired; overnight outlook was no severe

What this means for restoration teams

Hurricane-force wind on a compact core, only about 15 miles of hurricane-force wind from the center at advisory time, is a narrow damage swath if the core holds, not a multi-state derecho. Tropical-storm winds and surge cover a much wider coast. A 5-to-7-foot surge is structural and contents loss on the immediate coast before it is a dry-out. Rainfall of 3 to 7 inches, locally 10, on the central Gulf Coast is the Saturday water ticket inland of the surge line. Friday-night tornadoes on the Alabama and Panhandle coast are a local survey, not the regional event.

For teams near the Hurricane Warning: finish exterior prep today. Do not plan a Friday-night arrival. Property owners inside the surge warning should follow local evacuation orders. The Florida Peninsula marginal is a separate, smaller desk. Iowa hail is an overnight check, not a morning dispatch.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe-thunderstorm risk, and it is not an active SPC watch. It is also not a landfall that has already happened. Isaias is still about 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi. East Pacific Tropical Storm Simon is not a U.S. land threat this morning. The work, if it verifies, arrives Friday night into Saturday on the northern Gulf Coast, with a smaller Florida flood and tornado pulse today and an elevated hail chance in Iowa tonight.

Looking ahead

The next complete NHC advisory is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. CDT. Track, intensity, and the warning endpoints can shift before Friday night. SPC’s Day 4–8 outlook, issued 3:21 a.m. CDT, keeps potential too low for a 15 percent severe area through the period, but notes a Sunday shortwave tied to the tropical cyclone crossing the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys toward the Mid-Atlantic, with low predictability on destabilization, and a separate western trough later in the week. The afternoon desk should update the advisory, not assume this morning’s warning line is final.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, October 8, 2026, and the 0100 UTC overnight outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid, updated 13:21 UTC); SPC storm reports for October 8; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC; National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 7A for Hurricane Isaias, 7:00 a.m. CDT. Prior desk: Wednesday, October 7 afternoon storm updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and watches, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for the next Isaias advisory.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 8, 2026

Storm Updates: Gulf Coast Isaias Watches, Quiet Severe Pulse — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

This is the Wednesday afternoon Storm Tracker desk for October 7, 2026. The organized severe window is closed. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 2:41 p.m. CDT, still carries no severe thunderstorm areas, and SPC had no watches and no mesoscale discussions in effect this afternoon. The live story is not a plains outbreak. It is Tropical Storm Isaias, quickly intensifying over the southwestern Gulf of America, with hurricane and storm surge watches already up on the northern Gulf Coast for a late Friday or early Saturday landfall. Restoration exposure today is still mostly water on the Florida Peninsula. The Gulf watch corridor is the staging problem for Friday: wind, surge, trees, and roof work if the forecast holds.

These are county-scale flood pockets and a named tropical cyclone still offshore, not a U.S. landfall this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC’s 20Z update, issued by Weinman at 2:41 p.m. CDT and valid through 12Z Thursday, kept the headline: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were needed from the late-morning discussion. In the exit region of a midlevel jet over the Midwest, a couple of strong low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and the Lower Great Lakes this evening and tonight. Enhanced flow and steep lapse rates could support a few gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. Limited buoyancy, and increasing low-level stability over the Lower Great Lakes, kept that risk below severe probabilities.

On the Florida Peninsula, a diffuse front and a moist profile with weak lapse rates and flow at or below 20 knots from the surface through 300 mb are limiting updraft strength. SPC said a brief tornado or waterspout near the coast cannot be ruled out, but the risk was still too low to add severe probabilities on this update. Northern New York can see isolated low-topped storms late today and tonight ahead of an amplifying trough and cold front, with gusty winds possible but not a watch.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, discussed at 5:03 a.m. EDT and valid 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, holds a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida Peninsula. Precipitable water above 2.25 inches south of a slow front supports a rinse-and-repeat pattern along I-4 and generally south of I-10. Localized convection can produce heavy rain that stalls. Four Corners storms were left sub-Marginal. No Slight or Moderate flood risk is on the Day 1 map.

National Hurricane Center Advisory 5, 4:00 p.m. CDT, places Tropical Storm Isaias near 22.7N 92.9W, about 225 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 500 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. Minimum pressure is 994 mb. Motion is east-northeast at 8 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning and to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A Hurricane Watch runs from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch covers the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis, and east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River. NHC said additional watches or warnings could be required tonight. Hurricane conditions could begin in the Hurricane Watch area late Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas by midday Friday.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Gulf Coast watch corridor

This is the desk that matters for Friday, not for a ticket tonight. The Hurricane Watch includes coastal Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Indian Pass. Local NWS Tallahassee products this afternoon already listed Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch combinations for coastal Bay, coastal Gulf, and south Walton, with tropical storm watches inland into Holmes, inland Bay, inland Gulf, and Washington counties. Surge guidance in Advisory 5: 5 to 7 feet above ground from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, including Mobile Bay; 3 to 5 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi to Ocean Springs; 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River; 2 to 4 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown; 1 to 3 feet on Lake Pontchartrain.

Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is forecast at 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and 1 to 3 inches with local amounts to 5 inches farther north into the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Tornado potential increases in rain bands approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Friday evening and overnight, then spreads inland Saturday.

Restoration read: this is a prep window, not a landfall ticket. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for Bay St. Louis, Gulfport, Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City only after the local office upgrades the watch. Do not treat a watch as a warning. Surge and wind, if they verify Friday, are roof, siding, and first-floor water on the immediate coast east of the landfall point.

Hotspot 2 — Florida Peninsula flood pulse

This is the water that is already organized. WPC’s Marginal Risk covers much of the peninsula under a tropical air mass south of the front. The same setup SPC described near Tampa Bay — rich moisture, poor lapse rates, weak flow — favors slow cells more than organized severe storms. Cities on the rinse-and-repeat axis include Tampa, St. Petersburg, Lakeland, Orlando, and the I-4 corridor, with lighter but repeated rain south of I-10 into the peninsula.

Restoration read: urban street flooding and a wet slab where a cell sits, not a regional wind event. A brief coastal waterspout is in the discussion and is not a watch. Photograph standing water only if the road is closed and you are off it. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Great Lakes gusts and northern New York

SPC flagged the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon and the Lower Great Lakes this evening for low-topped storms that could gust 40 to 50 mph. Northern New York is the overnight piece, tied to the amplifying trough. Buoyancy is limited. No severe probabilities, no watch.

Restoration read: loose limbs and a service drop if a gust verifies, not a crew callout on the outlook alone. Check the local forecast office before treating a special weather statement as a severe thunderstorm warning.

Just hit

There is no new SPC severe watch and no new U.S. landfall to log as a ticket. Yesterday’s west-central Florida marginal tornado language was removed overnight and stayed off the map today. Florida flood pockets from the same front are the carryover water. Isaias is still about 500 miles south-southwest of the Mississippi River mouth. Offshore hurricane warnings in the central Gulf are marine products, not coastal county warnings. Alaska high-wind warnings on the Bering Strait coast are outside this desk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Northern Gulf Coast (LA / MS / AL / FL Panhandle)	Future hurricane wind, surge, heavy rain, Friday tornado bands	Hurricane Watch Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass; Storm Surge Watch to Yankeetown; TS Watch on the flanks	Watch, landfall late Friday or early Saturday
Florida Peninsula	Slow heavy rain, urban flood, brief waterspout not ruled out	WPC Marginal; SPC no severe area	Live water, not a watch
Upper and Lower Great Lakes / northern New York	Gusts 40–50 mph, low-topped storms	Below severe probabilities	Scattered, no watch
Four Corners	Isolated heavy rain	Sub-Marginal	Quiet
Rest of CONUS severe	None organized	No SPC risk areas, no watches, no MDs	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Today’s callable work is Florida water where a cell has already sat on a neighborhood. The Gulf Coast watch is a 48-hour prep, not a deploy. Hurricane conditions are possible late Friday inside the watch from Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass. Tropical storm conditions could arrive by midday Friday on the flanks, which is when outside prep gets dangerous. NHC’s own key message this afternoon: residents in the Hurricane Watch should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages, and people in the Storm Surge Watch should follow local officials.

If the track holds, Friday night into Saturday is wind and surge on the immediate coast east of landfall, then interior water from 3 to 7 inches with local 10-inch totals from southeastern Louisiana through the Panhandle. That is roof, tree, and extraction work, sequenced after the wind drops. Do not roll crews into a surge zone on a watch.

What this is not

This is not a derecho. It is not a U.S. landfall this afternoon. Isaias is a tropical storm at 65 mph, forecast to be a hurricane by Thursday morning, still southwest of the Yucatan approach. Hurricane Rachel and Tropical Storm Simon are eastern Pacific systems and are not a U.S. land threat on the current NHC products. SPC did not draw a Slight Risk, a Marginal Risk, or a watch anywhere in the contiguous United States today.

Looking ahead

Thursday morning Isaias is forecast to be a hurricane north of the Yucatan, still over water. The next complete NHC advisory is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. CDT, with an intermediate at 7:00 p.m. CDT. Additional watches or warnings for the northern Gulf Coast could come tonight. Friday is the approach day: tropical storm conditions possible by midday in the watch areas, hurricane conditions possible late in the Hurricane Watch, rain bands and a rising tornado risk Friday evening. SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0100Z. The Florida Marginal flood risk expires with the Day 1 period at 12Z Thursday unless WPC redraws it.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, all dated Wednesday, October 7, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2:41 p.m. CDT); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (discussion 5:03 a.m. EDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory 5 (4:00 p.m. CDT) and Forecast Discussion 5; NWS watches and warnings text summary; NWS Tallahassee local statement intermediate advisory 4A (2:16 p.m. EDT). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Florida Flood Pulse, Quiet Severe — Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (Morning).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and any new watch, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Isaias.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 7, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Flood Pulse, Quiet Severe — Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (Morning)

Wednesday morning desk. Florida owns the water. The organized severe window is closed. Not an NWS warning.

This is the Wednesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 7, 2026. Overnight into this morning the severe board stayed empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 7:43 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the United States today and tonight. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida Peninsula through 12 UTC Thursday, after a live flood warning on the Jacksonville metro from overnight rain.

These are county- and ZIP-scale flood and river tickets, not a plains outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this morning. Tropical Storm Isaias is a Friday northern Gulf planning note. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC language at 7:43 a.m. CDT: no tornado, wind, or hail risk areas. General thunderstorm areas remain drawn over parts of Florida, the northern tier into northern New York, and scattered western terrain, but that is thunder coverage, not a severe category. The most recent convective watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, issued September 30 for west-central Texas. It expired at midnight CDT that night. Nothing replaced it overnight.

West-central Florida is the place SPC is still watching, even with probabilities withheld. The setup looks like yesterday: a weak surface wave and a front from the northeast Gulf east-northeast across the middle of the Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms were already on either side of the front early this morning. The 12 UTC Tampa Bay sounding sampled 2.53 inches of precipitable water, with 70s dewpoints near and south of the front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain keep lapse rates poor and buoyancy thin. Effective shear is generally 25 knots or less. Some low-level veering could support a transient supercell, and waterspout potential exists offshore. SPC says it is unclear whether a tornadic waterspout reaches the west-central Peninsula or whether supercells develop inland. Severe risk stays low unless a later outlook adds probabilities. The next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Northern New York is the other convective note. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms are possible late today and more so tonight as an amplifying upper trough and a cold front approach. Buoyancy is limited. Gusty winds are plausible tonight as low- and mid-level flow increases and lapse rates steepen above the boundary layer. That is a local wind and lightning desk, not a watch.

Hotspot 1 — Florida Peninsula flood pulse

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0831 UTC (5:03 a.m. EDT), keeps a Marginal Risk over much of the Florida Peninsula, valid 12 UTC Wednesday through 12 UTC Thursday. A slow, strong front stays draped across the northern Peninsula. South of it, precipitable water is above 2.25 inches. Light to moderate rain continues along I-4 and generally south of I-10, with localized convection that can stall. The Marginal is there because a cell that hits an urban or flood-prone spot can exceed flash-flood guidance. Four Corners showers this afternoon stay sub-Marginal on the WPC discussion.

The overnight ticket that already verified is Jacksonville. The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued a Flood Warning at 5:20 a.m. EDT for southeastern Duval County and north-central St. Johns County, in effect until 8:15 a.m. EDT. Doppler radar showed heavy rain from thunderstorms. Between 3 and 7 inches had fallen, with up to 2 more inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Jacksonville, Arlington, Ponte Vedra Beach, Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach, Baymeadows, UNF, and Craig Field. Streams were still rising from the last 12 hours of runoff. That warning is short-fuse urban water, not a multi-day river crest.

River warnings are the slower desk. NWS Tampa Bay issued a Flood Warning at 6:34 a.m. EDT for the Withlacoochee at U.S. 41 Dunnellon, affecting Levy, Marion, and Citrus counties, until further notice. Minor flooding. Stage was 28.2 feet at 5:45 a.m. EDT, at flood stage, with docks and boat ramps flooding. The office tied the elevated stage to hydrilla acting like a dam along a 4.5-mile stretch between U.S. 41 and Lake Rousseau, with levels expected to stay steady or rise if more rain falls in the basin. NWS Melbourne continues a Flood Warning for the St. Johns River near Astor, affecting Volusia and Lake counties. At 8:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet, flood stage 2.3 feet, with a rise toward 2.7 feet late this week. Docks, ramps, and low roads nearest the river are the impact language.

Restoration read: Jacksonville Beach through Arlington is the just-hit extraction window if water is inside. Do not wait on a severe watch that is not coming. Dunnellon and Astor are river-bottom and marina tickets, not a new convective outbreak. West-central Florida stays a monitor for a brief waterspout or a stalled cell, not a hail board.

Hotspot 2 — Iowa river aftermath

The Quad Cities office extended minor flood warnings Tuesday evening on the Cedar and Iowa rivers. Cedar River near Conesville, affecting Muscatine and Louisa counties, was at 13.9 feet at 8 p.m. CDT Tuesday, cresting, flood stage 13.0 feet, warning until late Thursday night, with water affecting residences along County Road F70. Iowa River at Oakville was 11.1 feet, flood stage 11.0, expected below flood stage Thursday afternoon. Iowa River at Wapello was 21.5 feet, flood stage 21.0, until Friday morning, with agricultural land and secondary roads in Wapello Bottoms in the impact language. Iowa River at Marengo, Iowa and Benton counties, remains under a warning until late Friday night. These are falling or cresting river tickets from earlier rain, not a new SPC day.

Restoration read: drying and access on the bottoms, not a hail or wind callout. Do not pull a plains severe crew for Louisa County this morning.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the window from 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday show no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Today’s report page, which opened at 1200 UTC Wednesday, is also empty as of this desk. Yesterday’s Marginal tornado area on the west-central Florida coast, and Mesoscale Discussion 2346, did not produce a logged land report. The 0100 UTC Tuesday-night outlook had already pulled severe probabilities after rotating storms weakened approaching the western peninsula shoreline.

The verified overnight hit is water, not wind: 3 to 7 inches in southeastern Duval and north-central St. Johns, with the Jacksonville flood warning still live into the morning commute. Panhandle work from earlier in the week remains aftermath. Nothing new was logged from a convective watch, because none was in effect.

Tropical note — Isaias, not a landfall

National Hurricane Center Advisory 3 at 4:00 a.m. CDT upgraded Tropical Depression Nine to Tropical Storm Isaias. Center near 22.0 N, 94.1 W, about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Movement east-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Minimum pressure 1004 mb. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. NHC says interests on the Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should monitor the storm, and that hurricane watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later today.

Forecast track: pass north of the Yucatan on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, with Isaias expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Rainfall on U.S. land is a Friday-through-weekend item, not this morning’s ticket: 3 to 6 inches, localized up to 10, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and 1 to 3 inches, localized up to 5, across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash, urban, and isolated river flooding will be possible then. Swells reach the Gulf Coast late this week. Offshore hurricane and tropical-storm warnings are already on Gulf marine zones. That is marine, not a coastal warning for land. Hurricane Rachel is in the eastern Pacific, well west of Baja California, and is not a U.S. land threat this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Jacksonville metro / St. Johns	Urban flood, standing water, stream rise	NWS Flood Warning until 8:15 a.m. EDT; 3–7 inches overnight	Just hit, warning still live
Florida Peninsula	Training rain, urban flooding, brief waterspout offshore	WPC Marginal excessive rain; SPC no severe area	Live flood pulse; severe low
Withlacoochee at Dunnellon	Minor river flooding, docks and ramps	NWS Flood Warning until further notice	Live, hydrilla-elevated stage
St. Johns at Astor	Minor river flooding	NWS Flood Warning continues	Rising toward late week
Cedar and Iowa rivers	Minor river flooding, bottoms roads	NWS flood warnings into Thursday–Friday	Aftermath, cresting or falling
Northern New York	Low-topped storms, gusty wind tonight	SPC general thunder, no severe area	Late today into tonight
Northern Gulf / Isaias	Future wind, surge, 3–6 inches Friday–weekend	NHC TS, 40 mph; no land watches yet	Planning note, not a today landfall

What this means for restoration teams

This morning’s work is water that already fell. Three to seven inches in southeastern Duval and north-central St. Johns is wet drywall, soaked lower cabinets, and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water crossed the threshold. Standing water on Beach Boulevard corridors and low lots is an access problem before it is a rebuild. Photograph in daylight only if it is safe. Turn around, don’t drown.

Dunnellon and Astor are slower. Marina docks, ramps, and the first roads off the river are the exposure, not a roof-tarping line. Iowa bottoms are the same class of ticket farther north: agricultural land and secondary roads, residences along County Road F70 near Conesville if the stage holds. Do not staff those as a severe-wind event.

West-central Florida does not earn a severe board until SPC draws one. If a waterspout comes ashore, it is a narrow coastal survey, not a regional callout. Northern New York gusts tonight, if they verify, are tree-on-line and light roof work on a limited buoyancy profile.

Isaias is not a roll-today storm. Hurricane watches may come up later today for part of the northern Gulf coast. Friday is the approach day on the current NHC track, with the heavier rain from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle after that. Stage the planning conversation. Do not pull crews off the Jacksonville flood warning for a center that is still about 580 miles southwest of the Mississippi mouth.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day and not a convective watch morning. SPC logged no severe reports overnight. It is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Offshore hurricane warnings on Gulf marine zones are for waters, not for a coastal county warning yet. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is Florida urban water, two Florida river gauges, and leftover Iowa river flooding.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 outlook, issued late Tuesday night, also has no severe thunderstorm areas for Thursday. Isolated low-topped storms are possible from the upper Hudson Valley into Maine, with very small hail not ruled out under cold temperatures aloft. Florida keeps scattered afternoon storms in rich moisture as Isaias strengthens over the central Gulf, but Thursday severe is not expected on that outlook because of weak shear and poor lapse rates. The change to watch is NHC: hurricane watches likely later today for a portion of the northern Gulf coast, then the Friday approach. The afternoon desk should say whether SPC added a Florida severe probability and whether a land watch is up.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (7:43 a.m. CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; last issued watch 676, September 30); SPC preliminary local storm reports for October 6 and October 7; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0831 UTC October 7; National Weather Service flood products from Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Melbourne, and Quad Cities; National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory 3, 4:00 a.m. CDT October 7.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Isaias. Prior desk: Storm Updates: West-Central Florida Marginal Tornado — Tuesday, October 6, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 7, 2026