Tag: New Mexico

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Moderate Flood — Nov 1

    Storm Updates: Southwest Moderate Flood — Nov 1

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 31 afternoon pulse (quiet-pulse-2026-10-31-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC November 2 / 6:41 PM CST November 1, 2026, valid 020100Z–021200Z) has opened a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Threat of severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes this evening into the overnight. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already issued for portions of central New Mexico including the Albuquerque area.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (discussion 733 PM EST November 1, valid 01Z November 2–12Z November 2) holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners region, including high-end Moderate across the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains, with widespread Moderate through canyon areas of northwest Arizona into southwestern Utah. Upgrade from the prior Slight. Atmospheric river / pineapple express on saturated soils. Active Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona (Tucson, Flagstaff, Paria River, etc.).
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (700 PM EST November 1) states tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No named tropical cyclones. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
    • Flood Watches remain widespread across Arizona, portions of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida (Treasure Coast / Palm Beaches). Residual river and flash flooding impacts continue on already saturated Southwest soils from recent multi-week wet pattern.
    • Severe lane opened to Slight and Flood upgraded to Moderate. Dominant ticket is the Moderate excessive rainfall and live flash flooding across the Four Corners / Arizona. Severe wind and tornado potential secondary but live in New Mexico this evening.

    Live Status

    As of the afternoon desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 7:14 PM PDT / 03:14 UTC November 2), the national picture centers on the Southwest. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook confirms a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Water vapor shows a mid-level trough with strong southwesterly flow; storms developing in higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and a line expected to organize and move east-northeastward. Surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F support moderate instability. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m²/s² supports tornado potential with embedded supercells. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Mesoscale Discussion 2424 noted. No watches currently listed as valid in the latest public products reviewed, but warnings are live.

    The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners. An anomalously strong atmospheric river is driving highly anomalous moisture (PWATs 4-6 sigma above normal) into the Southwest on already saturated soils from a multi-week wet period. High-end Moderate across the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains; widespread Moderate into canyon areas of northwest Arizona into southwestern Utah. Neighborhood probabilities for locally 5 inches or greater remain elevated. Dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars are most susceptible. Flash Flood Warnings active and extended in multiple Arizona counties, including life-threatening flooding on the Paria River and urban/stream flooding near Tucson and Flagstaff. Flood Watches cover large portions of Arizona and adjacent states through early Monday.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners / central and northern Arizona (flood primary): Moderate Risk excessive rainfall with active Flash Flood Warnings. Atmospheric river producing heavy rain rates on saturated ground. Impacts to creeks, washes, urban areas, and low-water crossings. Evacuations reported in areas such as Sedona / Oak Creek. Restoration exposure is water extraction, drying, and infrastructure from runoff.

    New Mexico into Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (severe): Slight Risk for severe wind and isolated tornadoes this evening through overnight. Line of storms organizing and moving east-northeast. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already covering Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with 60 mph gust potential. Possible 70+ mph gusts and line-embedded tornadoes farther east.

    East-central Florida (residual flood): Flood Watch in effect for Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday afternoon. Widespread 1-3 inches possible, isolated 5-7 inches where bands train. Saturated soils from recent rain. Slight Risk residual on WPC for portions of the Florida Peninsula.

    Just-Hit

    Multiple Flash Flood Warnings active or recently extended across Arizona (Tucson area, Flagstaff / Paria River, Graham/Greenlee, etc.) with radar and gauge indications of 1-2 inches already fallen and additional runoff on saturated soils. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Bernalillo, Santa Fe, and adjacent counties in central New Mexico with 60 mph wind gusts indicated by radar. Residual Flood Warnings and watches from prior rainfall continue in the Southwest. Florida coastal and inland flood concerns building with the ongoing disturbance.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~7:14 PM PDT / 03:14 UTC Nov 2 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 Slight Risk New Mexico into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe wind gusts and few tornadoes expected evening into overnight. Active SVR warnings in NM. No watches listed in latest products reviewed.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Four Corners (Mogollon Rim, San Juans, NW AZ into SW UT). Active FFWs in AZ. Flood Watches widespread Southwest and FL. Atmospheric river on saturated soils.

    Restoration Read

    Primary ticket is water across Arizona and the Four Corners. Stage for flash flooding, stream rises, and urban ponding on already wet ground. Secondary is wind damage (roofs, siding, trees, power) from the New Mexico severe line this evening into the Panhandles overnight. No tropical restoration file. Florida residual water possible but lower priority than the Southwest Moderate.

    What This Is Not

    Not a named tropical cyclone landfall or coastal surge event. Not an Enhanced or higher severe risk. Not a High excessive rainfall risk (Moderate is the top open lane). Not a quiet day.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe risk areas for Monday. WPC Day 2 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the east coast of Florida. Southwest flood threat should wind down as the atmospheric river shifts, but residual sensitivity remains on saturated soils. Monitor local NWS for lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    flood watch, flash flood warning, atmospheric river Arizona, Four Corners flooding, New Mexico thunderstorms.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 2), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 733 PM EST November 1), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-31-afternoon. No morning desk published for November 1.

    Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. This desk does not issue warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Flood & NM Severe — Nov 1

    Storm Updates: Southwest Flood & NM Severe — Nov 1

    As of the afternoon desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC November 2), the national picture centers on the Southwest. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0641 PM CST November 1, valid 020100Z–021200Z) carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z November 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2) maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners region. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-01-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate): SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 2 cycle) holds the Slight Risk. Storms have developed in north-central New Mexico and are organizing into a line expected to move east-northeast into the Panhandles this evening into overnight, with severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 remains in effect for portions of New Mexico.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO continues the Moderate Risk covering approximately 64,281 square miles and 3.7 million people on already saturated soils. Multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active across Arizona.
    • Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued for portions of central New Mexico, including the Albuquerque metro area. Mesoscale Discussion 2424 addresses severe potential with a watch likely in the High Plains corridor.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones and formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Risk levels unchanged from morning, but the severe threat is now actively unfolding. Dominant restoration ticket remains the Moderate excessive rainfall and flash flooding on saturated soils across the Southwest, compounded by the active severe wind and tornado threat in New Mexico and the Panhandles.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 lists a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (area approximately 61,898 square miles, population approximately 673,000). Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight. Storms have developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and will move east-northeastward. A band of strong storms is expected over central New Mexico, organizing into a line moving into the Texas Panhandle. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Supercells possible within the line; Amarillo VWP shows 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m²/s², supporting tornado potential (see MCD 2424). The threat is expected to persist into the overnight into northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas with isolated severe gusts.

    WPC Day 1 ERO places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall covering 64,281 square miles and 3,656,961 people. A high-end Moderate remains in effect for portions of the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains. An anomalously strong atmospheric river is driving highly anomalous moisture into the Southwest on already saturated soils. Widespread 3-5 inches of rain are expected in core areas, with efficient runoff converting nearly all rainfall to flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars. Flood Watches remain widespread. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in Arizona, including the Paria River in Coconino County (considerable threat) and the Tucson metro area.

    Hotspots

    • Southwest / Four Corners (Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado): Primary focus under WPC Moderate Risk. Saturated soils from multi-week wet period. Active Flash Flood Warnings in northern and southeastern Arizona (Paria River/Lees Ferry with rapid rise reported, Tucson area, Graham and Greenlee counties). Expect life-threatening flash flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban areas, and burn scars. Heavy rain rates capable of producing considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim and San Juans.
    • Southern High Plains / eastern New Mexico into Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles: SPC Slight Risk. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for New Mexico. Line of storms developing across central and eastern New Mexico, moving east-northeast into the Panhandles overnight. Primary threats: damaging wind gusts (isolated above 70 mph possible) and a few line-embedded tornadoes. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already issued for central New Mexico including Albuquerque metro.
    • East coast of Florida: Residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Flood Watch in effect for parts of the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday afternoon. Additional rain continues into Monday on saturated soils. No organized severe threat.

    Just-Hit

    Heavy rainfall from the atmospheric river continued into Sunday afternoon and evening, producing and extending Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona, including a rapid rise on the Paria River and persistent threats in the Tucson area. Severe thunderstorms developed in central New Mexico by late afternoon, prompting Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with radar-indicated 60 mph wind gusts. Preliminary local storm reports include 60 mph gusts in Clark County, Nevada, earlier in the convective day. No widespread tornado reports logged yet, but the threat is increasing as the line organizes and moves east.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC Nov 2 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 2): SLIGHT RISK NM into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for NM. Damaging winds primary, few tornadoes possible with line. Storms developing; MCD 2424.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Four Corners (~64k sq mi, ~3.7M people). Active Flash Flood Warnings AZ. Flood Watches AZ/NM/UT/CO and residual FL. Saturated soils from recent events.

    Restoration Read

    Moderate flood lane remains the primary driver on already saturated soils across the Southwest and Four Corners. Expect flash flooding of washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban corridors, and burn scars, with potential for considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim. Active severe threat in New Mexico and the High Plains brings risk of damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and a few tornadoes with the evening and overnight line of storms. Florida residual flash flood risk under Slight ERO. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, roof/siding/tree damage from winds, and residual coastal flooding. Turn around, don’t drown. No tropical component.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and WPC Moderate Risk are both open. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Monday: SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Slight Risk shifting eastward across North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Missouri for late Monday afternoon into evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. WPC Day 2 holds residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the east coast of Florida. Southwest flood threat begins to wind down as the moisture plume moves through, but residual runoff on saturated soils continues into Monday. No tropical development expected.

    Rising Queries

    Rising queries tied to the Southwest flood and New Mexico severe hotspot include “flood watch,” “flash flood warning,” and related searches for Arizona and New Mexico flooding.

    Sources

    Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: High Plains Severe — Nov 01 Morning

    Storm Updates: High Plains Severe — Nov 01 Morning

    As of the morning desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 8:15 PM PST / 04:15 UTC November 2), the national picture has both severe and flood lanes open. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0641 PM CST November 1, valid 020100Z–021200Z) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.” The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z November 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2) places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Southwest. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the earlier morning desk pulse table (this slug, prior version ~6:14 PM PST): SPC Day 1 has been updated to the 0100 UTC November 2 cycle. Slight Risk remains in place across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Thunderstorms have developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and are expected to organize into a line moving east-northeast into the Panhandles this evening into overnight, with severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 remains in effect until 0400 UTC November 2 for portions of New Mexico.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO continues a Moderate Risk, now valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2, covering ~64,000 square miles and ~3.7 million people. Flood Watches and multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active across Arizona, New Mexico, and surrounding areas on saturated soils.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook confirms tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No named cyclone threatens or has just hit the U.S. coast or Gulf.
    • NWS products show ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in central New Mexico (including Albuquerque metro), Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona (Paria River, Tucson area, Graham/Greenlee), High Wind Warnings in New Mexico and Texas, and Tornado Watches noted in local reports for parts of the South Plains/Texas Panhandle.
    • No major shift in overall risk levels since the prior update this morning, but the severe threat is now actively unfolding with storms moving into the Slight Risk area. Dominant restoration ticket remains the Moderate excessive rainfall and flash flooding on saturated soils across the Southwest, compounded by the active severe wind/tornado threat in New Mexico and the Panhandles.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 2, 2026 / 0641 PM CST November 1) lists a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (area ~61,900 sq mi, population ~673,000). Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains. Ahead of a lead shortwave, storms have developed in north-central New Mexico and will move east-northeast with potential for severe wind gusts. Further east, a band of strong storms is expected over central New Mexico, organizing into a line moving into the Texas Panhandle. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Supercells possible within the line; Amarillo VWP shows 0-3 km SRH near 350 m²/s², supporting tornado potential (see MCD 2424). Threat persists into overnight into northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas with isolated severe gusts.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (valid 0100Z Mon Nov 02 through 1200Z Mon Nov 02, issued 0027Z) places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (at least 40% probability) covering 64,281 square miles and 3,656,961 people. Slight Risk covers larger areas. Primary focus remains the Southwest/Four Corners on already saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in Arizona, including extensions for the Paria River and Tucson metro areas. Flood Watches remain widespread across Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and parts of California, Nevada, and Florida.

    Hotspots

    • Southwest / Four Corners and Southern High Plains (AZ, NM, TX Panhandle, OK Panhandle): Primary focus under WPC Moderate Risk and SPC Slight Risk. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for New Mexico until 0400 UTC. Line of storms developing across central/eastern NM moving into the Panhandles overnight, with damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and line-embedded tornadoes possible. Flash Flood Warnings active in northern and southeastern Arizona (Paria River/Lees Ferry, Tucson metro including Pima/Santa Cruz, Graham/Greenlee). Flood Watches cover much of the region. Expect efficient runoff on saturated soils leading to flash flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars. Heavy rain rates up to 2 inches per hour possible in stronger cells.
    • East coast of Florida: Residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Flood Watch in effect for parts of the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday. Soils sensitive from multi-day rainfall. No organized severe threat.
    • Scattered local alerts: High Wind Warning for Sacramento Mountains and other areas in New Mexico/Texas (gusts 65+ mph). Winter Storm Warnings in portions of Colorado and Nevada. Beach Hazards Statements on California coast.

    Just-Hit

    Heavy rainfall from the atmospheric river continued into Sunday afternoon and evening, producing and extending Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona, including rapid rises on the Paria River and persistent threats in the Tucson area on saturated soils. Severe thunderstorms developed in central New Mexico by late afternoon, prompting Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with 60 mph wind gusts indicated. No widespread tornado reports logged yet as of the 0100 UTC outlook, but the threat is increasing as the line organizes and moves east into better moisture and shear.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:15 PM PST / 04:15 UTC Nov 2 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 2): SLIGHT RISK NM into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for NM until 0400Z Nov 2. Damaging winds primary, few tornadoes possible with line. Storms developing.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Southwest (~64k sq mi, ~3.7M people). Active Flash Flood Warnings AZ. Flood Watches AZ/NM/UT/CO and others. Saturated soils from recent events.

    Restoration Read

    Moderate flood lane remains the primary driver on already saturated soils across the Southwest. Expect flash flooding of washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban areas, and burn scars, with potential for considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim and surrounding terrain. Active severe threat in New Mexico and the High Plains brings risk of damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and a few tornadoes with the evening/overnight line of storms, plus ongoing severe thunderstorm warnings. Florida residual flash flood risk under Slight ERO. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, roof/siding/tree damage from winds, and residual coastal flooding. Turn around, don’t drown. No tropical component.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and WPC Moderate Risk are both open. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Monday: SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Slight Risk shifting eastward across North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Missouri for late Monday afternoon into evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. WPC Day 2 holds residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of Florida. Southwest flood threat begins to wind down as the plume moves through, but residual runoff on saturated soils continues into Monday. No tropical development expected.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 2 2026 / 0641 PM CST Nov 1): spc.noaa.gov
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z Nov 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z Nov 2): wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
    • SPC Current Watches (Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699): spc.noaa.gov
    • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook: nhc.noaa.gov
    • NWS Watches, Warnings & Advisories: weather.gov
    • Prior desk on this slug: updated in place from earlier November 1 morning version.

    Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 30

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 30

    As of the afternoon desk on Friday, October 30, 2026 (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 04:15 UTC October 31), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0733 PM CDT October 30, valid 310100Z–311200Z) holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and central Arizona. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC October 31) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-30-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk remains focused on southern and central Arizona (~40,612 sq mi, ~5.5 million people including Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler). Primary threats stay isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. No convective watches currently valid. Geographic shift from earlier Kansas/Texas noted in morning has held.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO latest update (discussion 853 PM EDT) centers the Slight Risk on portions of Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern New Mexico. Southwest remains the main focus with additional 1+ inch possible overnight before instability fades. Residual activity noted in the Plains but primary lane is the Southwest. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix metro area), with law enforcement reporting multiple water rescues and 0.75–2.25 inches already fallen.
    • No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance have dissipated; residual moisture supports the Southwest rainfall threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Active Flash Flood Warnings issued and remaining in effect for Maricopa County, Arizona (into the late evening MST), with radar-indicated heavy rain and streamflow gauges above alarm stage. Residual High Wind and Winter Storm Warnings continue in Alaska. Special Marine Warnings earlier along the Texas coast. These do not alter the national Slight flood or Marginal severe lanes.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane remains Slight with verified ongoing flash flooding now centered in the Phoenix area. Quiet Pulse criteria hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no U.S. tropical watch or warning.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (issued 0733 PM CDT October 30, 2026) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and central Arizona. A shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest is supporting convective development along a surface trough, with MLCAPE estimated at 1000–1200 J/kg and 0–6 km shear around 30 knots. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are the primary threats over the next few hours. No current watches or mesoscale discussions active as of the latest scan.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0051 UTC October 31, discussion 853 PM EDT) places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern New Mexico. The Southwest remains the main focus; additional 1+ inch is possible before available instability is exhausted. HREF probabilities of flash flood guidance exceedance decrease rapidly after 06Z. Earlier Slight coverage over west Texas has shifted or residualized as the primary threat moves west.

    NWS has issued multiple Flash Flood Warnings for Maricopa County, Arizona (including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, New River, Cave Creek, and Anthem areas), valid into the late evening. Law enforcement reported multiple water rescues. Residual Flood Warnings exist on some river systems from prior rainfall (e.g., Florida). High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings continue in Alaska. Special Marine Warnings were issued earlier for Texas coastal waters capable of producing waterspouts. SPC today’s storm reports show a delayed tornado report near Marion KS and hail reports in Las Vegas NV; no widespread significant severe reports for the Arizona Marginal area.

    Hotspots

    • Southern and central Arizona (Phoenix metro): Marginal Risk for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. Active Flash Flood Warnings in Maricopa County with 0.75–2.25 inches already fallen, streamflow gauges above alarm, and multiple water rescues reported by law enforcement. Primary short-term focus for both severe and flood lanes. Population centers include Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tucson.
    • Southern Utah and southwestern New Mexico: Included in the WPC Day 1 Slight Risk excessive rainfall. Sensitive terrain, burn scars, and slot canyons most vulnerable to flash flooding. Expansion noted in earlier discussions.
    • Residual river flooding and Alaska: Ongoing Flood Warnings on residual river systems in Florida. High Wind Warnings (gusts to 70–80 mph) and Winter Storm Warning (7–15 inches snow) in Alaska. Not drivers of the national Slight or Marginal lanes.

    Just-Hit / Local Storm Reports

    Active Flash Flood Warnings in Maricopa County, Arizona confirm ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding impacts as of late evening MST. Radar-indicated thunderstorms have produced 0.75–2.25 inches with additional amounts possible in some areas; law enforcement reported multiple water rescues. SPC today’s reports include a delayed tornado near Marion, KS, and hail (quarter to half-dollar size) in the Las Vegas, NV area. No widespread significant severe reports (tornado, large hail, or widespread damaging wind) logged for the current Arizona Marginal area as of this desk. SPC storm reports page continues to update.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 04:15 UTC Oct 31 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance dissipated; no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~40.6k sq mi, ~5.5M people) for southern/central Arizona (isolated wind/hail). No active watches.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk AZ, southern UT, SW NM. Active FFWs in Maricopa County AZ with water rescues. Residual river Flood Warnings continue.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in southern and central Arizona (especially Maricopa County / Phoenix metro) under the Slight Risk and active warnings, with verified ongoing impacts including water rescues. Isolated severe wind and hail potential in the same area this evening. Sensitive terrain in southern Utah and southwestern New Mexico also at risk. Residual river stage concerns elsewhere. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead

    SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe areas forecast. Residual moisture continues to support showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest into the weekend. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with additional rainfall possible across Arizona, with Flood Watches extending into Saturday night–Sunday. No elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet. Monitor for any overnight updates to Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona.

    Rising Queries

    • Arizona storms Halloween weekend
    • Phoenix flash flood warning
    • Maricopa County flooding
    • severe thunderstorm Arizona
    • Southwest excessive rainfall

    Sources

    • Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 31, issued 0733 PM CDT Oct 30; today’s storm reports)
    • Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO updated 0051 UTC Oct 31, Slight Risk AZ/southern UT/SW NM)
    • National Weather Service (Flash Flood Warnings in Maricopa AZ including water rescues, residual Flood Warnings, Alaska warnings)
    • National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; no U.S. land threat)
    • Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-30-morning

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 30 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 30 Morning

    As of the morning desk on Friday, October 30, 2026 (updated approximately 7:15 PM PDT / 02:15 UTC October 31), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0733 PM CDT October 30, valid 310100Z–311200Z) holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and central Arizona. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the previous desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk has shifted from central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi) and southwest Texas to southern and central Arizona (~40,612 sq mi, ~5.5 million people including Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Glendale, Chandler). Primary threats are isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. No convective watches currently valid.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO continues a Slight Risk for west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico from residual Vance moisture. Active Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect for portions of west Texas (Howard, Mitchell, Scurry, Dawson, Gaines Counties), with 1–2 inches already fallen and flooding ongoing. Marginal Risk persists near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. Flood lane remains Slight.
    • No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance have dissipated; residual moisture supports the Southwest rainfall threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Residual High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings remain active in portions of Alaska. Special Marine Warnings were issued along the Texas coast for waterspouts. Flash Flood Warnings also noted in Maricopa County, Arizona. These do not alter the national Slight flood or Marginal severe lanes.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal with a geographic shift to Arizona. Flood lane remains Slight with verified ongoing flash flooding in west Texas. Quiet Pulse criteria hold: nothing at SPC Slight or above, no WPC ERO Moderate or above, no U.S. tropical watch or warning.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (issued 0733 PM CDT October 30, 2026) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of southern and central Arizona. A shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest is supporting convective development along a surface trough, with MLCAPE estimated at 1000–1200 J/kg and 0–6 km shear around 30 knots. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are the primary threats over the next few hours. No current watches or mesoscale discussions active as of the latest scan.

    WPC Day 1 ERO places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Hourly rain amounts of up to 2 inches are possible with cell mergers or training, and local totals of 5 inches near the TX/MX border. Elevated PWATs of 1.5–2 inches from residual Vance moisture support the threat. Active Flash Flood Warnings confirm ongoing impacts in west Texas counties. Flood Watches have been in effect for central Arizona.

    NWS has residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., Florida Keys). High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings continue in Alaska. Special Marine Warnings have been issued for waters along the Texas coast capable of producing waterspouts and gusts to 40 knots. Flash Flood Warnings active in Maricopa, AZ.

    Hotspots

    • West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall continuing into the evening. Active Flash Flood Warnings in Howard, Mitchell, Scurry, Dawson, and Gaines Counties with 1–2 inches already observed and flooding ongoing. Dominant flood lane. Urban areas, highways, and low-lying terrain most vulnerable.
    • Southern and central Arizona: Marginal Risk for isolated severe wind gusts and hail this evening. Population centers include Phoenix and Tucson. Shortwave trough and surface trough providing lift and shear. Primary short-term severe focus. Flood Watches earlier in the day for central Arizona.
    • Residual river and coastal flooding plus Alaska: Ongoing Flood Warnings on residual river systems in Florida and New Mexico. High Wind Warnings (gusts to 70–80 mph) and Winter Storm Warning (7–15 inches snow) in Alaska. Not drivers of the national Slight or Marginal lanes.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~7:15 PM PDT / 02:15 UTC Oct 31 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance dissipated; no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~40.6k sq mi, ~5.5M people) for southern/central Arizona (isolated wind/hail). No active watches.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk west/central TX and SE NM. Active FFWs in west Texas counties. Residual river Flood Warnings continue. Flood Watches in AZ earlier.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico under the Slight Risk, with verified ongoing impacts in multiple west Texas counties. Isolated severe wind and hail potential in southern and central Arizona this evening. Residual river stage concerns on Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead

    SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe areas forecast. Residual moisture from Vance continues to support showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest into the weekend. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with additional rainfall possible across Arizona and the southern Plains, but no elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet. Monitor for any overnight updates to Flash Flood Warnings in Texas and Arizona.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    • Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 31, issued 0733 PM CDT Oct 30)
    • Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO, Slight Risk TX/NM)
    • National Weather Service (watches, warnings, Flash Flood Warnings in west Texas and Maricopa AZ, residual Flood Warnings)
    • National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; remnants of Vance)
    • Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29

    As of the afternoon desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC October 30), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special update 0132 UTC October 30) includes a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet) and the earlier afternoon desk (~8:14 PM PDT): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special issuance 0132 UTC Oct 30) maintains a Slight Risk for west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, driven by moisture from the remnants of Vance and ongoing convection. Marginal Risk also noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. Flood lane remains Slight. Active Flash Flood Warnings now in effect in northeastern Kansas (Marshall and Nemaha counties, with 3–3.5 inches already fallen) and portions of New Mexico.
    • No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued; no longer a well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture is spreading into the south-central and southwestern United States. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail possible). Residual Flood Warnings continue on river systems from prior rainfall (St. Johns River near Deland and Astor in Florida; portions of New Mexico), plus localized Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane remains Slight. No SPC Slight or higher, no WPC Moderate or higher, no U.S. tropical watch/warning. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Short-term focus is isolated severe and flash flooding in Kansas plus the TX/NM Slight Risk area.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, 2026, valid through 12Z October 30) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. In Kansas, widely scattered thunderstorms are developing near a stalled front in a moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) with sufficient shear for cell rotation, supporting an isolated hail threat as storms move northeastward. In southwest Texas, weak instability and elevated low-level shear/helicity support a brief tornado possibility with low-topped cells early this evening. No current watches.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC Fri Oct 30) places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, with hourly rain amounts potentially reaching 2 inches from cell mergers or training, and local totals of 5 inches possible near the TX/MX border. A Marginal Risk is also indicated near the Missouri/Kansas/Iowa/Nebraska border junction. Confidence is high in a heavy rainfall event through tonight into Friday morning from moisture associated with the remnants of Vance. PWATs elevated to 1.5–2 inches across much of Texas.

    NWS has issued Flash Flood Warnings for west central Marshall County and northern Nemaha County in northeastern Kansas until approximately 2:45 AM CDT, based on 3–3.5 inches of rain with additional amounts possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains for northeastern Nemaha County. Residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida) continue. High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. Additional Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches are in effect in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.

    Hotspots

    • West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall this evening into Friday morning. Highest totals near the border; flash flooding possible from training storms and elevated PWATs (1.5–2 inches). Urban and low-lying areas most vulnerable. Dominant flood lane.
    • Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Flash Flood Warnings in Nemaha and Marshall counties (3–3.5 inches already fallen near Bern and Marysville). Primary short-term severe and flood focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan.
    • Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories and active Flash Flood Warnings in the Southwest and Hawaii. Not the driver of the new Slight Risk.

    Just-Hit / Local Storm Reports

    Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (radar-indicated 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail near Bern). Flash Flood Warnings in Marshall and Nemaha counties with gauge-indicated 3–3.5 inches of rain. SPC storm reports page previously showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports received for the day; local warnings indicate ongoing activity. No widespread significant reports beyond the active warnings.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC Oct 30 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory, no well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture spreading into SW U.S. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~19k sq mi, ~592k people) for central/NE Kansas (isolated hail) and locally SW Texas (brief tornado possible). No active watches. SVR Warning in Nemaha County KS.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk west/central TX and SE NM (special update). Marginal near KS/MO/IA/NE. Active FFWs in NE KS (Marshall/Nemaha) and NM. Residual river Flood Warnings continue.

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary residual and short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in west and central Texas, southeastern New Mexico, and now northeastern Kansas under active warnings (3+ inches already in Marshall/Nemaha). Isolated hail potential in central and northeast Kansas with an active Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Ongoing river stage concerns on residual Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Looking Ahead

    SPC Day 2 holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of southern and central Arizona for Friday (isolated damaging winds and large hail possible). Day 3 shows no severe areas. WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for TX/NM continues into early Friday; residual moisture from Vance contributes to Southwest showers. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with rain possible across the Plains, but no elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet.

    Rising Queries

    • flood watch
    • Texas flood
    • Kansas storms
    • severe thunderstorm warning
    • flash flood

    Sources

    • Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29)
    • Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO special update 0132 UTC Oct 30, Slight Risk TX/NM)
    • National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, active FFWs and SVR Warning in KS)
    • National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; remnants of Vance EPAC)
    • Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29 Morning

    As of the morning desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (updated late evening PDT / early October 30 UTC), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0132 UTC October 30) shows a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado early this evening. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, tied to moisture from the remnants of Vance. A Marginal Risk area is noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of West Texas and SE New Mexico through Friday evening.
    • Remnants of Vance (Eastern Pacific): NHC issued the final advisory (Advisory 35, 800 PM MST October 29). The system no longer has a well-defined center. Moisture continues to spread into the south-central and southwestern United States, but no U.S. land threat and no coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones with no formation expected in the next 7 days.
    • Residual Flood Warnings continue on the St. Johns River system in Florida (near Deland and Astor) and portions of New Mexico from prior rainfall, plus localized coastal flood advisories (California, Florida Keys). Winter Storm Warnings active in Alaska. These do not alter the national ERO lane beyond the Slight in the Southwest.
    • Nothing moved severe to Slight or above, flood to Moderate or above, or opened a tropical watch/warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Dominant residual ticket is the Slight excessive rainfall risk in West TX / SE NM from Vance moisture.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, 2026, valid through 12Z October 30) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. In Kansas, widely scattered thunderstorms are developing near a stalled front in a moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) with sufficient shear for cell rotation, supporting an isolated hail threat as storms move northeastward. In southwest Texas, weak instability and elevated low-level shear/helicity support a brief tornado possibility with low-topped cells early this evening. No current watches or active Mesoscale Discussions. Threat expected to diminish overnight with loss of instability.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC October 30, 2026) shows a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. High confidence in a heavy rainfall event through tonight as a mid-level disturbance associated with the remnants of Vance moves into the region. Southeasterly flow elevates PWATs to 1.5-2 inches. Hourly amounts to 2 inches possible with training or cell mergers; local totals to 5 inches near the TX/MX border. Marginal Risk near the KS/MO/NE/IA junction. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches cover much of the Slight Risk area through Friday evening.

    NWS has residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida, California). High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Overnight LSRs may include isolated hail in Kansas; no widespread damaging reports noted on latest scan.

    Hotspots

    • West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall tonight into Friday morning from Vance remnant moisture. Training storms and elevated PWATs support localized flash flooding, especially urban areas, roads, low-lying spots, and burn scars. Dominant residual restoration ticket. Flood Watches in effect.
    • Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Primary short-term severe focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson.
    • Southwest Texas: Localized brief tornado possible early this evening with low-topped cells in a moist airmass. Short-lived.
    • Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories. Not tied to the new ERO Slight.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~03Z Oct 30 2026 / ~8 PM PDT Oct 29)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture spreading into SW U.S. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~19k sq mi, ~592k people) for central/NE Kansas (isolated hail) and locally SW Texas (brief tornado possible). No active watches or MDs.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk for west/central Texas and SE New Mexico (Vance moisture). Marginal near KS/MO/NE/IA. Residual river Flood Warnings (FL St. Johns, NM) and coastal advisories continue. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches active in TX/NM.

    Rising Queries

    • flood watch
    • Texas flood
    • New Mexico rain
    • Vance moisture
    • Kansas hail

    Restoration Read

    Quiet Pulse. Dominant residual ticket is localized flash flooding potential in west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Vance remnant moisture tonight into Friday, plus isolated hail in central/northeast Kansas and a very limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Residual river stage concerns on Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

    Sources: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO Slight Risk, updated 0132 UTC Oct 30), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, Flood Watches in TX/NM), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; Remnants of Vance EPAC final advisory). Afternoon desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 27

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 27

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Outlook updated at 0100 UTC Oct 28 (7:59 PM CDT Oct 27, valid 280100Z–281200Z) maintains a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms but contracts it to portions of Far West Texas only (approx. 7,958 sq mi, population ~15,706 including Pecos TX). Previously included southeast New Mexico. Isolated large hail possible for a few more hours this evening before the threat becomes minimal overnight with loss of heating.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0000 UTC Wed Oct 28, valid 01Z–12Z Wed Oct 28) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
    • No convective watches or current Mesoscale Discussions are valid. Earlier activity near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains has diminished. No new severe local storm reports elevating the day.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~40 mph, moving northwest offshore southwestern Mexico) poses no U.S. land threat.
    • Lanes unchanged overall. Severe remains Marginal (footprint reduced and short-term). Flood remains Quiet. Residual river Flood Warnings on the Rio Grande system and tributaries continue as the primary lingering concern.

    Live Status

    As of this Tuesday evening afternoon desk scan (approx. 04:14 UTC Oct 28 / 9:14 PM PDT Oct 27), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The latest SPC Day 1 places a Level 1 Marginal Risk over a small portion of Far West Texas for isolated severe thunderstorms for the next few hours this evening. A remaining storm or two could produce large hail before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Coverage stays low and population exposure is limited. No watches are in effect, and the overnight severe threat is minimal.

    WPC holds no Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook risk areas. Residual Flood Warnings persist on elevated rivers from prior multi-day rainfall across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin, including segments of the Rio Grande, Rio Chama, and related tributaries in New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas. Saturated soils maintain localized sensitivity for runoff even without new heavy rain. Coastal Flood Warnings remain active in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida east coast and southern California from tides and onshore flow, outside the main convective/ERO lanes.

    Hotspots

    • Far West Texas: SPC Marginal (contracted). Isolated thunderstorms with large hail possible near Pecos for a few more hours this evening. Low population exposure and sparse coverage limit impacts. No elevated tornado risk. Threat minimal overnight.
    • Residual Rio Grande and tributary river flooding (NM, CO, TX): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior heavy rain. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in arroyos, low-water crossings, and low-lying areas.
    • Coastal Florida and southern California: Coastal Flood Warnings and high rip current risks continue from onshore flow and high tides. Secondary concern only.

    Just-Hit

    Minor to moderate river flooding continues on Rio Grande system segments and related tributaries. Earlier convective activity in far West Texas and southeast New Mexico has largely diminished. No widespread damage reports. Localized water intrusion and road impacts remain possible on saturated ground. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~04Z Oct 28 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC, ~40 mph, NW) far offshore SW Mexico, no U.S. threat. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 28) Marginal Risk Far West TX only (~8k sq mi). Isolated large hail possible a few more hours this evening. No watches or MDs. Threat minimal overnight.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO <5% (no risk). Residual Flood Warnings on Rio Grande system. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Primary residual ticket remains localized river flooding and saturated-soil runoff impacts across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin. Isolated large hail in the short-term Marginal severe area of Far West Texas could cause limited roof, vehicle, or window damage, but low coverage keeps effects sparse. No organized severe or excessive rainfall expected tonight. Coastal flooding is tide-driven and secondary. Monitor previously warned zones for lingering water intrusion and road closures.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. SPC is only Marginal (not Slight or above). No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning. Always verify with weather.gov for your local area.

    Looking Ahead

    Wednesday Day 2: SPC Marginal severe risk over the Upper Mississippi Valley (conditional isolated hail/wind if heating occurs). WPC Day 2 Marginal excessive rainfall for east-central and southeast Florida. Day 3 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of West and Central Texas as remnant moisture from TS Vance is drawn northward—monitor closely, as organized convection on sensitive ground could elevate flash flood potential. Residual flood sensitivity lingers in the Southwest.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 28), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO <5%, issued ~0000 UTC Oct 28), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance EPAC). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 27 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 27 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

    What Changed

    • Compared with the prior afternoon desk pulse (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Outlook introduced then held a Marginal Risk. The 0100 UTC Oct 28 update (7:59 PM CDT) contracts the Marginal to a small portion of Far West Texas (~7,958 sq mi, population ~15,706 including Pecos TX). Previously broader SE NM into Far West TX. Isolated severe possible for a few more hours this evening before minimal overnight.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0000 UTC Wed Oct 28, valid 01Z–12Z Wed Oct 28) remains probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas. Prior Marginal Risks have ended.
    • Residual Flood Warnings continue on the Rio Grande system and tributaries in New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Texas from prior multi-day rainfall. Saturated soils persist. Some earlier Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (e.g., Reeves and Jeff Davis Counties TX) verified isolated hail/wind but no widespread reports.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~40 mph, moving NW well offshore southwestern Mexico) poses no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal with contraction and short-term focus; Flood remains Quiet. Residual river flooding is the primary lingering concern. Nothing material upgraded beyond Marginal.

    Live Status

    As of the Tuesday evening scan for the October 27 morning desk (approx. 04:12 UTC Oct 28 / 9:12 PM PDT Oct 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC places a Level 1 Marginal Risk over a small portion of Far West Texas for isolated severe thunderstorms for a few more hours this evening. A remaining storm or two could pose an isolated large hail threat before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Coverage is low. No convective watches or active Mesoscale Discussions. The severe threat becomes minimal for the remainder of the overnight period.

    WPC confirms no Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Risk (probability <5%). Residual river Flood Warnings continue on the Rio Grande, Rio Puerco, Rio Chama, San Juan River, and related segments across NM, CO, UT, and TX due to prior multi-day rainfall and saturated soils. Coastal Flood Warnings exist in limited coastal areas (Florida Keys, northeast Florida, San Diego/Orange County) driven by onshore flow and high tides but fall outside main lanes. Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Warnings earlier this evening (Midland/Odessa for Reeves/Jeff Davis Counties) indicated hail to 1.5" and gusts to 60 mph, but no widespread LSRs.

    Hotspots

    • Far West Texas: SPC Marginal (contracted). Isolated thunderstorms with large hail possible this evening near Pecos. Low population exposure and sparse coverage limit impacts. Threat winds down overnight.
    • Residual river flooding zones: Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events on the Rio Grande system and tributaries. Saturated soils elevate sensitivity for runoff in arroyos and low-lying areas.

    Just-Hit

    Minor to moderate river flooding continues on segments of the Rio Grande and tributaries. Earlier flash flood concerns have largely expired. Isolated severe thunderstorm activity produced localized hail and wind reports in Far West Texas this evening but nothing widespread. Localized water intrusion and road impacts remain possible on saturated ground. Turn around, don’t drown.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~04Z Oct 28 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC, ~40 mph, NW) far offshore SW Mexico, no U.S. threat. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk Far West TX (~8k sq mi). Isolated large hail possible for a few more hours this evening. No watches. Threat minimal overnight.
    FloodQuietWPC Day 1 ERO <5% (no risk). Residual Flood Warnings on Rio Grande system. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Primary residual ticket is localized river flooding impacts from prior heavy rain across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin, with saturated soils. Isolated large hail possible in the Marginal severe area of Far West TX could produce localized roof, vehicle, or window damage, but low coverage limits effects. No organized severe or excessive rainfall expected tonight. Monitor for lingering water intrusion and road closures in previously warned zones. Coastal flooding is tide-driven and secondary.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. SPC is only Marginal (not Slight or above). No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning. Always verify with weather.gov for your local area.

    Looking Ahead

    Wednesday Day 2: SPC Marginal severe risk potential over the Upper Mississippi Valley. WPC Day 2 Marginal excessive rainfall for east-central/southeast Florida. Day 3 may bring elevated rainfall risks into portions of Texas as remnant moisture interacts with shortwave features. Residual flood sensitivity lingers in the Southwest where soils remain wet.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100 UTC Oct 28; prior 2000Z), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO <5%), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, isolated SVRs), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-afternoon.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 26

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 26

    Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC / 2:54 PM CDT Monday, October 26, 2026, valid 262000Z–271200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated strong thunderstorms remain possible across far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, but organized severe potential is low. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently valid.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 27 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, October 26, valid 01Z–12Z October 27) holds a MARGINAL RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (footprint reduced) and the mid to lower Texas Coast from Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay. No Slight or higher.
    • Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in west-central Chaves County, New Mexico, and portions of far west Texas / Texas Panhandle. Minor flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, weakening, moving west well south of Mexico) and Post-Tropical Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
    • Nothing material moved to open a Slight or higher lane. Severe remains Quiet; flood remains Marginal. Quiet Pulse holds.

    Live Status

    As of this Monday afternoon desk, October 26, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT / 0414Z October 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through the remainder of the Day 1 period. Isolated thunderstorms continue along the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West Texas under modest instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) but limited effective shear (≤30 kt), keeping the severe threat isolated. No watches or MDs are in effect.

    WPC holds only Marginal Risks. On the High Plains, scattered storms associated with a shortwave may produce localized heavy rain, especially near terrain or on already wet soils. Along the mid to lower Texas Coast, increasing precipitable water and southerly flow support potential for localized heavy amounts near the immediate coast, with isolated flooding possible in urbanized areas. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    Hotspots

    • Southeast New Mexico and far west Texas (Sacramento / Davis Mountains corridor): Residual isolated strong storms and active Flash Flood Warnings on sensitive terrain and saturated soils.
    • Central and southern High Plains (Texas Panhandle into adjacent New Mexico/Kansas): WPC Marginal. Isolated training storms possible with localized 1–2 inches; flash-flood risk mainly on sensitive soils.
    • Mid to lower Texas Coast (Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay): Marginal ERO. Localized heavy rain possible near the immediate coast with potential for isolated urban flooding.

    Just-Hit

    Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for west-central Chaves County, New Mexico. Additional Flash Flood Warnings for portions of far west Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Minor river flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas. No widespread severe local storm reports confirmed today beyond isolated strong cells. Localized road and low-lying flooding continues in the warned areas.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 27 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and Post-Tropical Olana (CPAC) far from U.S. land. No coastal/Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereQuietSPC Day 1 (2000Z Oct 26): NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated storms possible far west TX/SE NM. No watches or MDs.
    FloodMarginalWPC Day 1 Marginal Risk High Plains (reduced) + mid/lower Texas Coast. Active FFWs in NM/TX. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Residual ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff on saturated soils, arroyos, small streams, urban corridors, and burn scars across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated strong storms may produce brief hail or gusty winds but no organized severe damage expected. Texas Coast carries a secondary urban flash-flood ticket under the Marginal. No widespread catastrophic damage. Monitor for lingering water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead

    Tuesday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Residual flash-flood sensitivity may linger where soils remain saturated on the High Plains and Texas Coast, but the overall threat winds down overnight into early Tuesday. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, 01Z update), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance / Post-Tropical Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.