Storm Updates: Southwest Flood & NM Severe

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the October 31 afternoon pulse (quiet-pulse-2026-10-31-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC November 2 / 6:41 PM CST November 1, 2026, valid 020100Z–021200Z) has opened a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Threat of severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes this evening into the overnight. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already issued for portions of central New Mexico including the Albuquerque area.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (discussion 733 PM EST November 1, valid 01Z November 2–12Z November 2) holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners region, including high-end Moderate across the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains, with widespread Moderate through canyon areas of northwest Arizona into southwestern Utah. Upgrade from the prior Slight. Atmospheric river / pineapple express on saturated soils. Active Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona (Tucson, Flagstaff, Paria River, etc.).
Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (700 PM EST November 1) states tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No named tropical cyclones. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
Flood Watches remain widespread across Arizona, portions of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida (Treasure Coast / Palm Beaches). Residual river and flash flooding impacts continue on already saturated Southwest soils from recent multi-week wet pattern.
Severe lane opened to Slight and Flood upgraded to Moderate. Dominant ticket is the Moderate excessive rainfall and live flash flooding across the Four Corners / Arizona. Severe wind and tornado potential secondary but live in New Mexico this evening.

Live Status

As of the afternoon desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 7:14 PM PDT / 03:14 UTC November 2), the national picture centers on the Southwest. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook confirms a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Water vapor shows a mid-level trough with strong southwesterly flow; storms developing in higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and a line expected to organize and move east-northeastward. Surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F support moderate instability. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m²/s² supports tornado potential with embedded supercells. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Mesoscale Discussion 2424 noted. No watches currently listed as valid in the latest public products reviewed, but warnings are live.

The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners. An anomalously strong atmospheric river is driving highly anomalous moisture (PWATs 4-6 sigma above normal) into the Southwest on already saturated soils from a multi-week wet period. High-end Moderate across the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains; widespread Moderate into canyon areas of northwest Arizona into southwestern Utah. Neighborhood probabilities for locally 5 inches or greater remain elevated. Dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars are most susceptible. Flash Flood Warnings active and extended in multiple Arizona counties, including life-threatening flooding on the Paria River and urban/stream flooding near Tucson and Flagstaff. Flood Watches cover large portions of Arizona and adjacent states through early Monday.

Hotspots

Four Corners / central and northern Arizona (flood primary): Moderate Risk excessive rainfall with active Flash Flood Warnings. Atmospheric river producing heavy rain rates on saturated ground. Impacts to creeks, washes, urban areas, and low-water crossings. Evacuations reported in areas such as Sedona / Oak Creek. Restoration exposure is water extraction, drying, and infrastructure from runoff.

New Mexico into Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (severe): Slight Risk for severe wind and isolated tornadoes this evening through overnight. Line of storms organizing and moving east-northeast. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already covering Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with 60 mph gust potential. Possible 70+ mph gusts and line-embedded tornadoes farther east.

East-central Florida (residual flood): Flood Watch in effect for Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday afternoon. Widespread 1-3 inches possible, isolated 5-7 inches where bands train. Saturated soils from recent rain. Slight Risk residual on WPC for portions of the Florida Peninsula.

Just-Hit

Multiple Flash Flood Warnings active or recently extended across Arizona (Tucson area, Flagstaff / Paria River, Graham/Greenlee, etc.) with radar and gauge indications of 1-2 inches already fallen and additional runoff on saturated soils. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Bernalillo, Santa Fe, and adjacent counties in central New Mexico with 60 mph wind gusts indicated by radar. Residual Flood Warnings and watches from prior rainfall continue in the Southwest. Florida coastal and inland flood concerns building with the ongoing disturbance.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~7:14 PM PDT / 03:14 UTC Nov 2 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 Slight Risk New Mexico into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe wind gusts and few tornadoes expected evening into overnight. Active SVR warnings in NM. No watches listed in latest products reviewed.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Four Corners (Mogollon Rim, San Juans, NW AZ into SW UT). Active FFWs in AZ. Flood Watches widespread Southwest and FL. Atmospheric river on saturated soils.

Restoration Read

Primary ticket is water across Arizona and the Four Corners. Stage for flash flooding, stream rises, and urban ponding on already wet ground. Secondary is wind damage (roofs, siding, trees, power) from the New Mexico severe line this evening into the Panhandles overnight. No tropical restoration file. Florida residual water possible but lower priority than the Southwest Moderate.

What This Is Not

Not a named tropical cyclone landfall or coastal surge event. Not an Enhanced or higher severe risk. Not a High excessive rainfall risk (Moderate is the top open lane). Not a quiet day.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe risk areas for Monday. WPC Day 2 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the east coast of Florida. Southwest flood threat should wind down as the atmospheric river shifts, but residual sensitivity remains on saturated soils. Monitor local NWS for lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

flood watch, flash flood warning, atmospheric river Arizona, Four Corners flooding, New Mexico thunderstorms.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 2), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 733 PM EST November 1), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-31-afternoon. No morning desk published for November 1.

Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. This desk does not issue warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.