Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT (0400Z Wednesday) for portions of southern into eastern Kansas and west-central into northwest Missouri. Issued 400 PM CDT / 2100Z. Primary threats: scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph; scattered large hail and isolated very large hail to 2.5 inches; a tornado or two possible. Watch area approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west-northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 40 miles northeast of Kansas City MO.
• SPC 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0250 PM CDT / 12:50 PM PDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 132000Z–141200Z) holds the Slight Risk (~80,580 sq mi, ~3.95 million people including Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka) from northwest Missouri/Kansas into the southern High Plains. Minor Marginal expansion over far northeast Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri for potential overnight damaging winds. Primary hazards large hail and severe gusts; tornado potential low but non-zero near the front.
• Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue over parts of the Texas Panhandle (Collingsworth/Donley, Lipscomb/Hemphill), northwest Oklahoma (Ellis County), and central Kansas (Marion County) as of late afternoon. Zero SPC Local Storm Reports (tornado, hail, or wind) received for the 1200 UTC October 13 convective day as of the latest scan.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1556 UTC) maintains Slight Risk across the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Flood Watches remain in effect for portions of central, east-central, south-central, and southeast Kansas and adjacent western Missouri through Wednesday morning.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Hurricane Simon (Eastern Pacific) remains offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Compared with the initial morning pulse, the Slight categories and KS/MO focus are unchanged; the first watch is live and short-fuse warnings are active with initiation underway.

Live Status

As of the Tuesday morning desk update (approximately 4:17 PM PDT / 7:17 PM EDT / 2317Z on October 13, 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 is live over southern and eastern Kansas into west-central and northwest Missouri. The SPC outlook continues to forecast widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado over the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. Very moist boundary layer (15–17 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios on morning soundings) supports moderate buoyancy (2000–2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong mid- to high-level flow favors initial supercells, with coverage increasing through the early evening from northwest Oklahoma and Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley. Primary hazards: large hail (1.5–2.5 inches possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central Kansas) and severe gusts (60–80 mph in clusters). Tornado potential limited by modest low-level shear but non-zero near the front by early evening. Zero preliminary local storm reports logged so far. Short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are active in the Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, and central Kansas.

A Marginal Risk persists for parts of western and central New York, where a low-amplitude shortwave could support localized wind damage or a brief tornado if surface-based storms develop, limited by modest buoyancy. Broader Marginal Risk covers southwest Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a small additional Marginal ERO over southeast Texas and adjacent Louisiana for urban/poor-drainage flooding.

WPC Slight ERO remains in place with slow cell motions, potential for repeating convection, and a developing low-level jet after sunset. Neighborhood probabilities from HREF support elevated chances for >3 inches near Kansas City and over the southern High Plains. This marks the start of a multi-day unsettled period with additional heavy rainfall possible through Thursday.

Pulse Table

Rising queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from western North Texas across Oklahoma to the western Ozark Plateau for Wednesday, primarily damaging wind gusts with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible. Marginal Risk extends into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Thursday across the Plains and Midwest corridor. Cooler air arrives later in the week.

Restoration posture: the Plains severe and flood window is open this afternoon into tonight under Watch 682 and Flood Watches. Primary hazards large hail and damaging wind under supercells and early clusters. Check weather.gov for county-level warnings, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and watch status, and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for the excessive rainfall overlay. No named storm hub required this run.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 4:17 PM PDT on October 13, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.