Tag: Oklahoma

Storm Updates: West Texas Moderate Flood — Oct 15

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the morning desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-15-morning), WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0644 UTC / 2:44 AM EDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 12Z Thu–12Z Fri) continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of west Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Lower Pecos / Concho Valley). No category change. Focus remains on the southwest shift from the prior central Oklahoma Moderate.
Active Flash Flood Warnings issued this morning by NWS Norman for parts of northern Texas (southeastern Wichita County including Wichita Falls/Sheppard AFB, and central Foard / southeastern Hardeman / northwestern Wilbarger counties) with 1–4 inches already fallen and additional heavy rain possible until late morning. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for west-central Texas (including San Angelo, Abilene, Tom Green, Taylor and surrounding counties) and residual across much of Oklahoma.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC / 7:52 AM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 151300Z–161200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys (isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). No Slight or higher. No convective watches currently valid; Watch 685 expired overnight. No change in severe category from the morning desk.
High Wind Warnings remain in effect across southern California (Inland Empire, San Diego County mountains and valleys, Santa Ana Mountains and foothills) with northeast gusts to 65–70 mph possible through Saturday, and in New Mexico (Albuquerque metro and southern valleys). Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the Sierra Nevada and central/northern California. These are non-convective wind and fire-weather products.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic basin quiet. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (rapidly intensifying, Tropical Storm Watch for Mexican coast) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat.

Live Status

As of the Thursday afternoon desk, October 15, 2026 (approximately 8:20 AM PDT / 10:20 AM CDT / 1520Z), the dominant threat remains the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over west Texas under anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record) and a slowing cold front. Active Flash Flood Warnings are live this morning over northern Texas near Wichita Falls. SPC Day 1 is Marginal only over the Ohio Valley with no watches. Flood Watches cover residual saturated ground across Oklahoma and expanding west-central Texas. High Wind Warnings are in force across parts of southern California and New Mexico but are non-severe.

Hotspots

West Texas Moderate ERO: WPC Day 1 maintains Moderate Risk from just east of Big Bend along the Rio Grande across the Stockton Plateau to the Pecos River Valley and north past the I-10 corridor into the Concho Valley. Areal averages 3–5 inches with local maxima higher possible along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains. Highest concern for flash flooding in poor drainage, low-water crossings, and urban areas of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos. Flood Watches through Friday morning cover much of this corridor including San Angelo and Abilene areas.

Northern Texas active Flash Flood Warnings: NWS Norman issued Flash Flood Warnings this morning for southeastern Wichita County (Wichita Falls, Sheppard AFB) until ~10:45 AM CDT with 2–4 inches already fallen, and for portions of Foard, Hardeman, and Wilbarger counties until noon CDT with 1–2 inches observed and up to 2 inches additional possible. Radar-indicated heavy rain ongoing. Turn around, don’t drown remains the immediate message.

Ohio Valley Marginal severe: SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk covers portions of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys including Indianapolis, Columbus, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Akron. Isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado possible this afternoon and evening near the warm front under modest buoyancy and strong shear. No watches. Overnight LSRs included scattered tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia.

Just Hit

Overnight into early Thursday, LSRs through approximately 0418 UTC documented damaging wind gusts of 60–75 mph across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (power lines, sheet metal, trees). Residual flooding and saturated soils persist across central and southwestern Oklahoma from prior training convection under the previous Moderate ERO. No new convective watches issued this morning.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:20 AM PDT / 10:20 AM CDT / 1520Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy and TS Simon offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk Ohio Valley (isolated wind / brief tornado). No watches. Overnight LSRs mainly wind damage TX/OK and trees OH/WV. Slight Risk closed overnight.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk west Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Pecos / Concho). Active FFWs northern TX (Wichita Falls area). Flood Watches ongoing OK and west-central TX.
Other	Wind / Fire	High Wind Warnings southern CA and NM. Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe wind and fire weather.

Restoration Read

Primary ticket is water over west Texas under the continuing Moderate ERO, with active Flash Flood Warnings this morning near Wichita Falls and expanding Flood Watches into west-central Texas. Residual flooding and saturated ground across central and southwestern Oklahoma from overnight training convection support additional extraction and drying claims. Wind damage claims possible from overnight gusts in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (power lines, sheet metal, trees). Ohio Valley Marginal supports only isolated tree or minor wind claims if storms organize this afternoon. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate from convective restoration.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. The Moderate ERO over west Texas and active Flash Flood Warnings in northern Texas keep the flood lane open. Severe remains Marginal only with no watches. No U.S. tropical threat.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of the Mid-Atlantic for Friday afternoon and evening (damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado). WPC Day 2 carries a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of west Texas continuing the front’s slower progression. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Outlook and watches (spc.noaa.gov), WPC Day 1 ERO (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS WWA summary and Flash Flood Warnings (weather.gov). Morning desk: Storm Updates: West Texas Moderate Flood — Oct 15 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 8:20 AM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the morning desk, SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, valid 150100Z–151200Z) continues the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. No category change. Linear segments along the cold front continue producing damaging wind gusts into the late evening across southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas under Watch 685.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #685 remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT / 0400 UTC October 15 for portions of southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Mesoscale Discussion 2377 (issued ~0835 PM CDT) and subsequent status messages note a well-defined QLCS with bowing segment and embedded mesovortex advancing along the Red River Valley, supporting a locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and a brief tornado. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue with radar-indicated gusts to 60–80 mph as of late evening.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0020 UTC Thursday, October 15, 2026) maintains the Moderate Risk across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. Record October PWAT of 2.23 inches at OUN continues to support efficient rates. Additional rainfall of 3–5 inches (local maxima toward 8 inches) remains possible on top of already observed 3–11 inch totals, with highest concern for the Oklahoma City metro and I-40 corridor. Category unchanged.
NWS Norman maintains multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings across the Oklahoma City metro (Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland and adjacent counties) and western/central Oklahoma. Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Simon (weakening) and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.
Preliminary SPC LSRs through late evening include continued wind damage reports in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma (gusts 60–65 mph, sheet metal, roof damage), earlier tornado near Fort Stockton TX, and hail to 1.75 inches near Crowell TX. No new category shifts.

Live Status

As of the Wednesday afternoon desk, October 14, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM CDT / 0414Z October 15), the dominant threat remains the Moderate Risk excessive rainfall over central Oklahoma and the Red River Valley, with training convection under anomalous precipitable water. SPC Slight Risk and Watch 685 support organized severe potential this evening into the late hours across southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas, with linear/QLCS mode producing damaging winds. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue. Flash Flood Warnings remain live across the Oklahoma City metro and western Oklahoma.

Hotspots

Central Oklahoma / Red River Valley (flood): WPC Moderate Risk. Multi-round training thunderstorms along the outflow boundary and front. High-resolution guidance continues elevated probabilities for additional 3–5 inches (local maxima toward 8 inches) on top of the 3–11 inches already observed, especially along the I-40 corridor west of Oklahoma City and across the metro. Record PWAT values support efficient rainfall rates. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings covering the Oklahoma City metro with reports of widespread flooding of streets, underpasses, and low-lying areas. Flood Watches through Thursday afternoon.

Southwest Oklahoma / west and northwest Texas (severe): SPC Slight Risk under Watch 685 (until 11 PM CDT). Linear segments and QLCS along the front are producing damaging wind gusts (radar-indicated 60–80 mph) this evening, with the threat spreading northeast. Effective shear supports organization. Tornado threat remains low but non-zero (brief QLCS possible per MD 2377). Preliminary tornado report 3 NE Fort Stockton, Pecos County, TX earlier today; hail to 1.75 inches near Crowell, TX and multiple wind damage reports in west/northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.

Ohio Valley residual: SPC Marginal Risk for isolated damaging wind gusts with residual convection from southern Kentucky into the northern Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley. Secondary to the Plains focus. Tree damage reports received earlier in Ohio and West Virginia.

Just Hit

Overnight and early-morning rainfall produced areal averages of 3–4 inches across central Oklahoma west-southwest into the southeastern Texas Panhandle, with local totals of 6–8+ inches west of Oklahoma City and reports reaching 9–11 inches in western counties (near Elk City, Hinton, Okarche corridor). Media and radar confirmed widespread flash flooding in the Oklahoma City metro. Today’s preliminary LSRs include a tornado 3 NE Fort Stockton (Pecos County, TX), hail to 1.75 inches 4 SW Crowell (Foard County, TX), wind gusts to 75 mph in Martin County, TX, power lines down in Midland County, TX, roof and sheet metal damage in northwest Texas, and tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 11:14 PM CDT / 0414Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: TS Simon (weakening) and TS Trudy offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 Slight Risk southern Plains. Watch 685 (SW OK / W-NW TX) valid until 11 PM CDT. QLCS/linear segments producing damaging winds this evening. Active SVR warnings. Primary: damaging wind / large hail; brief tornado possible.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate ERO central OK / Red River Valley TX. Active FFWs/Flood Warnings OKC metro and west OK. Record PWAT 2.23″ OUN. Additional 3–5″ possible on already 3–11″ totals. Flood Watches thru Thu.

Restoration Read

Water tickets dominate under the Moderate Risk and active Flash Flood/Flood Warnings. Extraction, drying, and access work continues in central and western Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City metro, and residual areas of southwestern Texas. Evening severe potential under the SPC Slight Risk and Watch 685 adds hail and wind claims if line segments organize further across southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard Plains posture: verify county-level warnings before deploying; do not staff as a hurricane response. Turn around, don’t drown remains the immediate public message on flooded roads.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685, and WPC Moderate Risk remain in effect. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. No named storm hub update required this run.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook carries only a Marginal Risk over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The multi-day heavy rain window continues into Thursday under residual moisture and frontal progression. Monitor for additional Flash Flood Warnings as training develops overnight into Thursday, and for Watch 685 status through 11 PM CDT.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable. Residual public interest centers on Oklahoma City flooding, flash flood warnings, and severe thunderstorms across the Plains.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT October 14, 2026): spc.noaa.gov. SPC Current Watches (Watch 685): spc.noaa.gov/products/watch. SPC Mesoscale Discussions: spc.noaa.gov/products/md. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. NWS Watches/Warnings: weather.gov. SPC Today’s Storm Reports: spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:14 PM PDT on October 14, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.

October 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the prior version of this morning desk and the October 13 afternoon pulse (Slight severe / Slight flood), the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas (latest discussion 0020 UTC / 7:20 PM CDT October 14, valid through 12Z October 15). Greatest probabilities for additional 3”/5”/8” remain centered on central Oklahoma including the Oklahoma City metro. Category unchanged.
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook updated 0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026 (valid 150100Z–151200Z) maintains the Slight Risk across parts of the southern Plains. Primary evening threat remains severe wind gusts from linear segments along the cold front in northwest Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma, with a marginal residual into the Ozarks and southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. No category change.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #685 remains in effect until 0400 UTC / 11:00 PM CDT October 15 for portions of southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Status reports and Mesoscale Discussion 2377 confirm the severe weather threat continues, including a QLCS with bowing segment and embedded mesovortex along the Red River Valley. Primary threats: damaging winds (isolated to 75 mph), large hail (isolated to 2 inches), tornado or two possible. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with 60–80 mph wind threats continue in northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma as of late evening.
Multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain active from NWS Norman across the Oklahoma City metro and western/central Oklahoma (3–6+ inches already fallen, locally 4–11 inches west near Elk City/I-40 and Canadian/Kingfisher counties), plus residual FFWs in northwestern Texas (Lubbock) and parts of Ohio/West Virginia. Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Record October PWAT 2.23 inches at 12Z OUN. Canadian River near Bridgeport forecast upgraded to major flooding earlier.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic quiet; Eastern Pacific Hurricane Simon (weakening) and Tropical Storm Trudy remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. impact.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM CDT / 0412Z 15 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet. Pacific: Hurricane Simon (weakening) and TS Trudy offshore Mexico, no U.S. impact.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 Slight Risk southern Plains (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT update). Watch 685 (SW OK / W-NW TX until 11 PM CDT) still live; QLCS bow and mesovortex per MD 2377. Active SVRs with 60–80 mph winds, hail, tornado possible in TX/OK. Marginal wind risk Ozarks and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate ERO central OK into Red River Valley TX. Active FFWs/Flood Warnings in OKC metro, western OK, residual TX and WV/OH. Flood Watches through Thursday. Record PWATs. Additional 3–5″ possible (local 8″) on top of observed 3–11″ totals. Major flooding forecast on Canadian River.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

The latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, updated 0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and valid 150100Z through 151200Z, maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. The summary states that thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.

A mid-level shortwave trough is moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest Texas and are expected to continue east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas, instability is weaker near the boundary. RAP forecast soundings indicate 40 to 50 knots of southwesterly mid-level flow supporting organized thunderstorms. Predominant mode is linear; more intense line segments could produce damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal threat may continue overnight across part of the Ozarks. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685 remains in effect until 11 PM CDT, with Mesoscale Discussion 2377 highlighting continued QLCS risk along the Red River Valley including possible brief tornado.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas, valid through 12Z Thursday, October 15, 2026 (updated ~0020 UTC). The greatest probabilities for exceeding the 3-inch, 5-inch, and 8-inch thresholds remain positioned over central Oklahoma, with the Oklahoma City metro a notable focus. High-resolution guidance continues to indicate widespread areas of additional 3–5 inches of rain with local maxima upwards of 8 inches on top of already observed totals of 3–8 inches (locally higher, up to 11 inches in some western areas) in parts of the region.

An anomalously moist environment is in place with plentiful Gulf moisture and influence from offshore Hurricane Simon, producing precipitable water values near or past record levels for October. The 12Z OUN sounding showed 2.23 inches, the highest recorded for the month during the period of record. Overnight and morning storms produced areal average estimated rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches (locally 6–8 inches and higher) from central Oklahoma west-southwest into the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Coordination with the Norman forecast office supports the Moderate Risk from southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin through central Oklahoma and into the Tulsa metro area. Flood Watches remain in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. A Slight Risk extends into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Life-threatening flash flooding has been reported across the Oklahoma City metro, with major flooding forecast on the Canadian River near Bridgeport.

Active Watches, Warnings, and Reports

As of late evening Wednesday (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 11:12 PM CDT / 0412Z 15 October 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685 is in effect until 11 PM CDT for southwest Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Status reports and MD 2377 indicate the severe weather threat continues with a well-defined QLCS and embedded mesovortex advancing along the Red River Valley. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings from NWS Norman cover portions of Foard, Knox, Hardeman, Wilbarger and adjacent counties in Texas (destructive 70–80 mph winds, hail, tornado possible near Crowell, Quanah, Vernon) and Comanche, Cotton, Jackson, Tillman counties in Oklahoma (60–70 mph winds near Lawton, Cache, Fort Sill, Geronimo). Multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active from NWS Norman across the Oklahoma City metro (Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Kingfisher, Logan and adjacent counties) and western/central Oklahoma, plus residual from NWS Lubbock in northwestern Texas (Crosby, Dickens, Garza, Kent, Cottle, Motley with 2–5 inches fallen) and NWS Charleston in Ohio and West Virginia (1–2.25 inches). Flood Watches continue through Thursday afternoon across broad areas of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Life-threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas, highways, and underpasses is ongoing or expected in places. Turn around, don’t drown remains the critical public message. Preliminary reports emphasize heavy rainfall totals of several inches (OKC metro 3–6 inches, western areas 4–11 inches including Elk City ~8.5 inches and Hinton ~9 inches) and developing wind damage under the watch.

Tropical

The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days in the Atlantic basin. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico with no threat to the United States, and Tropical Storm Trudy is also well south of Mexico. No Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane Watches or Warnings are in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always consult the latest products from the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center for official guidance and warnings. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.

October 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

As of ~9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 (KS/MO, expired 0400Z) has reached its expiration; Watches 683 (OK/TX Panhandle until Midnight CDT / 0500Z) and 684 (west TX until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect. Primary threats unchanged: large hail to 2.75 inches, damaging winds to 80+ mph, isolated tornado possible.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 0800 PM CDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) continues to hold the Slight Risk across southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. No category upgrade since the morning 1300 UTC outlook.
Preliminary SPC LSRs (1200 UTC Oct 13 onward, through ~2344 UTC) remain: hail to 2.75 inches near Matador TX and Mclean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, multiple 1.00–1.75 inch reports in KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX, 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. No tornado reports received.
Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue under the remaining watches, with prior destructive threats noted in the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Slight ERO holds across the corridor with Flood Watches for KS/MO including KC metro. Tropical lane unchanged: no U.S. land threats from Atlantic or EP systems.
No new mesoscale discussions issued in the last hour; storms continue organizing into clusters along the front with upscale growth expected overnight under the low-level jet.

Live Status

As of approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watches 683 and 684 remain live over western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle, and west Texas, while Watch 682 for Kansas and northwest Missouri has expired. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk continues to cover scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight from the southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg, and 35–45 kt shear continue to support supercells transitioning to linear and cluster modes. Preliminary LSRs confirm large hail and damaging winds are verifying. The low-level jet is expected to sustain convection overnight.

A Marginal Risk persists for isolated severe gusts in parts of western and central New York and for overnight expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. The WPC Day 1 Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook and associated Flood Watches cover the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas. The multi-day unsettled period with heavy rain potential continues through Thursday.

Hotspots

KS / NW MO — Watch 682 expired

Southern and eastern Kansas into west-central and northwest Missouri were under Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z. The watch included the Kansas City metro, Wichita, and Topeka corridors. Threats included large hail (1–2.5 inches), damaging winds (60–80 mph), and a low tornado risk, concurrent with Flood Watches for the KC metro. Active warnings earlier included destructive wind threats over the Kansas City area; preliminary hail and wind reports occurred in central Kansas. Storms continue to track east as the watch ends.

Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX — Watches 683 and 684 live

Western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas remain under Watch 683 until Midnight CDT / 0500Z; west Texas under Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z. Threats: large to very large hail (to 2.75 inches), damaging winds (to 81 mph), and an isolated tornado. LSRs include 2.75-inch hail near Matador and Mclean TX, 2.50-inch hail near Hedley TX, and an 81 mph gust near Turkey TX. Prior mesoscale discussion 2371 noted an organizing cluster across southwestern into central Oklahoma. The WPC Slight ERO extends into the region.

Overnight Marginal and western/central NY

A Marginal Risk continues for isolated severe gusts. Scattered storms remain possible in western and central New York with a watch unlikely. Overnight Marginal expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri is possible for organized wind if convection persists along the front.

Just Hit

Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (from 1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC): hail to 2.75 inches near Matador (Motley County, TX) and Mclean (Wheeler County, TX), 2.50 inches near Hedley (Donley County, TX), 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX. Wind reports: 81 mph measured near Turkey (Hall County, TX), 75 mph near Flomot (Motley County, TX), 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), 63 mph near McAdoo TX, and tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. Radar-indicated larger hail and 70–80 mph gusts occurred under active warnings, including earlier destructive threats over the Kansas City metro. No tornado reports have been received. Residual minor Flood Warnings elsewhere remain non-severe leftovers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
KS / NW MO	Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight; Watch 682 expired 0400Z; WPC Slight; Flood Watches (KC metro)	Watch expired; earlier LSRs and destructive warnings including KC metro; storms tracking east
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX	Large hail (to 2.75″), damaging wind (to 81 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight/Marginal; Watches 683/684 until Midnight–2 AM CDT; WPC Slight	Live; Watches 683/684 active; 2.75″ hail and 81 mph wind LSRs in TX Panhandle
Overnight Marginal / western-central NY	Isolated severe gusts, localized wind	SPC Marginal	Isolated possible; limited NY coverage; overnight expansion possible
CONUS watches / outlook	Severe storms	SPC Slight; Watches 683 + 684 live (682 expired); LSRs arriving	Two watches active; short-fuse warnings and preliminary reports ongoing

Restoration Read

Slight Risk severe weather continues under live Watches 683 and 684 (Watch 682 expired), with preliminary LSRs confirming large hail (to 2.75 inches) and damaging wind gusts (to 81 mph) across the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas. Teams covering Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, Amarillo, Lubbock, and Oklahoma corridors should stage for tree, roof, siding, and exterior damage from hail and gusts. Concurrent Flood Slight and active Flood Watches make water the co-equal ticket; monitor low-lying areas, creeks, and urban runoff as rainfall rates climb. No tropical or coastal surge tickets. Standard posture: confirm county products on weather.gov, stage for mixed wind/hail/water response, and re-check as storms continue overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not an Enhanced or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher excessive rainfall day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent tornadoes or widespread damage beyond the preliminary reports. The Slight remains the official category; Watches 683 and 684 confirm the threat is still underway in the southern portions. All reports remain preliminary and subject to revision.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau (mainly damaging winds, with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible) for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with Marginal elsewhere including parts of the upper Ohio Valley. WPC continues the multi-day heavy rain potential into the Plains/Missouri Valley corridor. Cooler air is expected later in the week.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hub

No named storm threatening U.S. land. Prior residual hubs: Hurricane Isaias 2026 and Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No new hub created.

Sources

Primary: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook 0100 UTC, mesoscale discussions including MD 2371, Watches 682/683/684, today’s LSRs), WPC Day 1 ERO, NWS watches/warnings summary, nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Confirm local products on weather.gov before travel or work. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.

October 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682 (southern/eastern Kansas into west-central/northwest Missouri until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z), 683 (western Oklahoma and eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas until Midnight CDT / 0500Z), and 684 (west Texas until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect as of 0210Z October 14. Primary threats: large hail to 2.5 inches, damaging winds to 75–80 mph, isolated tornado possible. Status messages updated through 0153Z.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0800 PM CDT / 7:00 PM PDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) maintains the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Summary: scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. Core Slight area holds with ongoing supercell and linear modes. Next outlook by 0600Z.
Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC) include hail to 2.75 inches near Matador and McLean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX (TTU mesonet), 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS, 63 mph near McAdoo TX, plus tree limbs down near Hazelton KS and a power pole down near Grantville KS. No tornado reports received.
Active short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue across the Plains, including earlier destructive-threat storms over the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0010 UTC Oct 14 / 8:10 PM EDT) holds the Slight Risk across the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, with subtle shifts based on radar and HRRR trends. Flood Watches remain for portions of KS and adjacent western MO.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy (Eastern Pacific) remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Tropical lane unchanged. Severe and flood categories remain Slight; main movement is confirmed initiation with measured LSRs and active watches continuing into the overnight.

Live Status

As of the Tuesday morning desk update (approximately 9:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM CDT / 0413Z on October 13/14, 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682, 683, and 684 remain live over the central and southern Plains into west Texas. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk covers scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight over the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg) and 0–6 km shear near 35 knots support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible before modes become more linear. Primary hazards remain large hail (up to 2.75 inches reported) and damaging winds (up to 81 mph measured). Tornado potential is low but non-zero near the front. Short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been active, including destructive threats over the Kansas City metro.

A Marginal Risk continues for parts of the southern Great Lakes (isolated large hail with elevated storms) and broader areas of southwest Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley. A small Marginal ERO covers southeast Texas and adjacent Louisiana for urban/poor-drainage flooding. WPC Slight ERO remains in place, driven by slow cell motions, repeating convection, and a developing low-level jet after sunset. Neighborhood probabilities support elevated chances for >3 inches near Kansas City and over the southern High Plains. This is the start of a multi-day unsettled period with additional heavy rainfall possible through Thursday.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
KS / NW MO (including KC metro)	Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight; Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT; WPC Slight; Flood Watches	Live; SVR warnings (destructive in KC, some cancelled); LSRs of hail/wind; power outages reported
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle into NW TX	Large hail (to 2.75″), damaging wind (to 81 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight/Marginal; Watch 683 until Midnight CDT; WPC Slight	Live; Watch 683 active; 2.75″ hail and 81 mph wind LSRs
West Texas (near I-20 / Midland area)	Large hail (to 2.5″), isolated damaging wind	SPC Slight; Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT	Live; supercell threat continuing
Southern Great Lakes	Isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Elevated storms possible overnight
Southeast Texas / adjacent Louisiana	Urban/poor-drainage flooding	WPC Marginal ERO	Evening window; high FFG
CONUS severe watches / LSRs	Severe storms	Watches 682/683/684 live; hail to 2.75″, wind to 81 mph	Initiation confirmed; no tornado LSRs

Rising queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from western North Texas across Oklahoma to the western Ozark Plateau for Wednesday, primarily damaging wind gusts with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible. Marginal Risk extends into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Thursday across the Plains and Midwest corridor. Cooler air arrives later in the week.

Restoration posture: the Plains severe and flood window is open this evening into tonight under Watches 682, 683, and 684 and Flood Watches. Primary hazards large hail and damaging wind under supercells and clusters, with confirmed reports of both. Check weather.gov for county-level warnings, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and watch status, and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for the excessive rainfall overlay. No named storm hub required this run.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:13 PM PDT on October 13, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.

October 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Thursday, October 1, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Thursday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 1, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, issued at 7:53 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The work that verified was last evening in central Kansas, plus wind and heavy rain on the southern Plains. Today the national pulse is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a flood desk on the rain side.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and leftover water, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Remnant moisture from Polo is already folded into the Plains low. Restoration exposure this morning is survey work on a narrow Kansas tornado path, wind and pole damage in west and northwest Texas, and interior water where Wednesday night rain trained. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

Tornado Watch 675 covered central into northeast Kansas from 4:00 p.m. CDT Wednesday until 11:00 p.m. CDT. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676 covered west-central Texas from 5:10 p.m. CDT until midnight CDT, with damaging wind to 70 mph the primary threat and a tornado or two not ruled out. Both have expired. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:12 UTC Thursday, lists no watches currently valid. The most recent issuance was Watch 676.

The 0100 UTC Day 1 update Wednesday evening still carried a Slight Risk from Texas into southwest Oklahoma and over north-central Kansas, with a couple of tornadoes possible for another hour or two in north-central and northeast Kansas. By the 0600 UTC outlook, SPC had dropped all categorical severe areas. The 1300 UTC update keeps that call. Organized severe potential is low. Occasional gusty winds can still accompany storms from parts of Kansas southward into central and southern Texas. SPC also notes a low-end funnel chance near a weakening surface wave and the front over southern Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, and western and northern Oklahoma if cloud breaks allow heating. That is not a watch, and it is not a categorical risk.

What is still live is the rain. The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued at 2:52 a.m. EDT Thursday keeps a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains today. A Slight Risk covers parts of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Great Lakes. WPC language: numerous flash-flooding events are possible on the Moderate, and streams may flood, including debris flows in or near recently burned areas. The Slight is mainly localized flash flooding of urban streets, roads, and small streams. SPC’s own Day 1 text says the same thing in different words for eastern Oklahoma into north Texas, the Hill Country, and the Edwards Plateau: repetitive, locally heavy rainfall is the main concern as the rain shield shifts slowly east ahead of a surface low and cold front.

Just hit — central Kansas tornadoes

NWS Wichita has a preliminary event page for Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few low-topped supercells with very low cloud bases produced several tornadoes across Barton, Russell, and Lincoln counties ahead of a strong Plains low, in a tropical-like airmass tied in part to the remnants of Polo. Instability was not extreme. Low-level moisture was. Wichita’s summary: no significant damage or injuries reported.

SPC local storm reports for the period ending 11:59 UTC Thursday list the sequence. Storm-chaser video of a tornado 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County at 20:49 UTC, then 1 mile southeast of Ash Valley at 20:53 UTC. Barton County followed: Olmitz at 21:52 UTC, Galatia at 21:58 UTC, several brief touchdowns west and northwest of Susank between 22:01 and 22:10 UTC, with tornado damage to some outbuildings 4 miles north-northwest of Susank. Russell County: a rope tornado 3 miles east of Bunker Hill, described as 3 miles west of Dorrance and north of I-70, at 22:51 UTC, then a spotter tornado 6 miles south of Lucas at 23:24 UTC. Lincoln County: an elephant-trunk tornado 3 miles east of Lucas at 23:39 UTC, Sylvan Grove at 23:43 and 23:53 UTC, a multi-vortex 4 miles south of Ash Grove at 00:01 UTC. A brief touchdown 2 miles southeast of Victor in Mitchell County at 00:23 UTC is the last tornado LSR on the board. NWS Wichita also issued a confirmed tornado warning for southwestern Russell and northwestern Barton counties around 4:13 p.m. CDT, with a spotter tornado south of Milberger.

Restoration read: this is a survey corridor, not a regional wind event. Outbuildings near Susank are the damage note on the filtered LSR list. Treat Barton, Russell, and Lincoln as the counties to check for roof punctures, farm structures, and tree-on-line calls. Do not staff it as a citywide loss. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The path language from chasers and radar estimates is preliminary.

Just hit — Texas wind, and one Florida Keys note

The same LSR board has no hail reports. Wind is west and northwest Texas, mostly after dark. At least two power poles broken near the base 6 miles north-northwest of Tubbs Corner in Crane County around 20:40 UTC. A measured 58 mph gust at Clayton, New Mexico, at 22:40 UTC. One power pole and line down 1 mile northeast of Roscoe in Nolan County at 23:46 UTC. A 60 mph observer gust 24 miles south of Ozona in Crockett County at 01:06 UTC. A 64 mph gust 10 miles southwest of Paducah in Cottle County at 01:20 UTC. A 60 mph gust 4 miles south-southeast of Estelline in Hall County at 01:29 UTC. A 68 mph gust 4 miles west of Rotan in Fisher County at 02:50 UTC, the strongest measured wind on the board.

That is pole, line, and outbuilding work in the Concho Valley and Rolling Plains, consistent with Watch 676’s wind threat before it expired at midnight. Today’s SPC report page, which opens at 12:00 UTC Thursday, has no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

One non-Plains tornado LSR sits earlier on Wednesday’s board, not in the overnight window: 16:00 UTC, 2 miles southwest of Rock Harbor in Monroe County, Florida. Preliminary highly localized damage to one residence in the Silver Shores community between Tavernier and Rock Harbor, time approximate, investigated by the emergency manager. That is a single-structure note, not a Plains-style outbreak.

Hotspot this morning — Southern Plains rain

SPC describes extensive convection from eastern Oklahoma into north Texas and southwestward into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, with a few stronger elements still ongoing at outlook time. The shield should keep a gradual eastward shift through the day on warm advection ahead of the surface low and cold front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain limit heating. Low-level winds are expected to weaken. Gusty winds can still occur. The severe ceiling is low. The water ceiling is not.

Wednesday’s WPC Day 1 Moderate, valid through 12 UTC Thursday, already targeted the Concho Valley, North Texas west of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country between San Angelo and Fort Worth, the Red River Valley, and a second Moderate from north-central Kansas through southeast Nebraska into western Iowa, including the Omaha and Des Moines corridors, with 2 to 4 inches and local amounts higher where cells trained on the warm front. Thursday’s new Moderate stays on the Southern Plains as Gulf moisture pools along the front. Cities and counties to watch for water, not for a new severe watch: San Angelo, Abilene, the Hill Country approaches to Fort Worth, southeast Oklahoma, and the Red River counties. Central Plains and western Iowa are the leftover Slight, where Wednesday night rain may already be in streets and small streams.

Restoration read: rain first. Stage extractors and drying equipment where flash-flood warnings or flooded intersections verify, especially on soils that took rain yesterday. A 58 to 68 mph gust is roof, siding, and service-drop work in the counties that already reported poles. A funnel or brief spin-up near the Kansas–Oklahoma boundary, if one occurs, is a local survey, not a second Watch 675. Do not send the Kansas tornado crew and the Texas water crew as if they are the same ticket.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Barton, Russell, Lincoln, Mitchell KS	Tornado path, outbuildings	Watch 675 expired 11 p.m. CDT	Just hit; no significant damage reported
West-central and northwest Texas	Wind, poles, lines	Watch 676 expired midnight CDT	Just hit; 68 mph Rotan
Eastern OK / north TX / Hill Country	Heavy rain, isolated gusts	No severe areas; WPC Moderate flood	Live rain shield
Southern KS / TX Panhandle / western OK	Gusty wind, small hail, funnel chance	No categorical risk	Conditional this afternoon
Central Plains into western Iowa	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Overnight water, still draining
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling cyclone	Polo remnants inland	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 to 68 mph is roof, gutter, tree, and service-drop work, already logged in Crane, Nolan, Cottle, Hall, and Fisher counties. A tornado with no significant damage reported is still a county check: farm buildings and a few roofs can sit outside the first NWS summary. Heavy rain on a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk is wet drywall and a 24 to 48 hour mold clock if water got inside overnight. Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa water from the warm-front train is yesterday’s ticket still moving through town.

For teams on the Southern Plains: the severe watch is over. The flood risk is not. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on low-water crossings west of Fort Worth and through the Hill Country.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products overnight included hurricane conditions in offshore waters of southwest Mexico, not a new U.S. land threat. Polo’s remnants are already in the Plains pattern. The work this morning, where it verifies, is scattered: a tornado survey in central Kansas, pole and roof calls in west Texas, and flooded intersections where the Southern Plains rain shield sits. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 4–8 outlook, issued 4:00 a.m. CDT, does not flag an organized severe episode for the next several days. A large surface high dominates from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast early next week. An isolated severe chance returns to the conversation around Tuesday from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska as a front drops southeast, then shifts toward the mid-Missouri Valley Wednesday. That is not today’s desk. WPC already flags a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on parts of the Southern Plains for Friday, and a Slight from the central Gulf Coast through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians on Saturday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the morning Quiet Pulse holds if a warning cluster fires on the Texas rain shield.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook, 1300 UTC Thursday, October 1, 2026, and the 0100 UTC and 0600 UTC updates; SPC current watches page (no watches valid; Watch 675 and Watch 676 expired); SPC preliminary local storm reports for September 30 and October 1; NWS Wichita event summary for the September 30 central Kansas tornadoes; Weather Prediction Center short-range forecast discussion, 2:52 a.m. EDT October 1, and the Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook covering the overnight Moderate on the Plains and Corn Belt. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 30 afternoon storm updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 1, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The organized desk is back on the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s last advisory on Polo said the remnants dissipated over northwestern Mexico. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven roof and tree work on the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, a conditional tornado window on the Kansas warm front, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC outlook (issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, valid 1300 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) upgrades Day 1 to a Slight Risk over about 82,000 square miles covering parts of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and a separate corridor through central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska. A broader Marginal wraps Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Wichita, Norman, and Midland. Forecasters Guyer and Bentley: thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A few tornadoes and localized wind damage are also possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page last listed Watch 674 as the most recently issued product; that watch is not today’s product and is not in effect this morning. Any new watch this afternoon would be a new number. Today’s SPC local-storm-report board (1200 UTC Wednesday through 1159 UTC Thursday) is empty as of this desk. That is expected before the diurnal window.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches run 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley, with a 2–4 inch, locally 6 inch footprint from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines south of I-80.

Overnight into this morning

Tuesday night’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board is the just-hit file. Two tornado reports came in from the Texas Panhandle after midnight UTC: a social-media video tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County at 0012 UTC (7:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday), position estimated via radar by NWS Amarillo; and a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County at 0245 UTC (9:45 p.m. CDT), reported south of State Highway 335 west of I-27, on the ground 3–4 minutes and then roped out. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

Severe wind also verified on the same night: 67 mph at Roswell Air Center (KROW) in Chaves County, New Mexico, at 0033 UTC; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell at 0037 UTC; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas, at 0324 UTC, with additional measured gusts near 59 mph around 10:22 p.m. CDT. No hail reports were logged on that board. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already had the Southwest flood-and-Marginal frame; last night added the Panhandle tornado and New Mexico/west Texas wind tickets.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This is the higher-confidence diurnal severe corridor. SPC expects early-day convection across the southern Plains to weaken or shift north by early afternoon, then redevelop late afternoon into evening ahead of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Heating of a very moist airmass should push MLCAPE near or above 1,500 J/kg from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Supercells are possible at first. Front-parallel flow and increasing coverage favor a more linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises in the moist environment.

Cities and counties to watch: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Midland on the Marginal fringe, and the Edwards Plateau counties that sit under the Slight contour. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before the late-afternoon initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

SPC upgraded this corridor on the 1300 UTC package. A rather strong low-level jet (50-plus knots diurnally) is forecast to shift northeast across central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska or southwest Iowa by evening. Destabilization near the warm front may stay weak because of clouds, ongoing rain, and poor mid-level lapse rates. The upgrade is about 0–1 km and 0–3 km wind profiles that stay supercell-conducive even if CAPE stays muted. Multiple tornadoes are treated as a viable possibility, not a high-confidence outbreak.

Cities to watch: Topeka under the Slight population list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; the I-70 and Kansas River counties; the Nebraska state-line counties toward Omaha. Flood Watch language was already in play overnight for parts of north-central and northeast Kansas through Thursday afternoon, with 2–4 inches widespread and locally around 6 inches in the wetter cores.

Restoration read: this is the tornado-and-water overlap. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. Training rain on the same warm front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Do not send the same crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, is the working range, with two heavy periods: morning and again in the evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with some repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop and the flash-flood signal cuts off. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Claude and Randall County, Texas, tornado reports and the Roswell / Denver City wind gusts are last night’s tickets. They sit under yesterday’s Marginal from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is farther east and north: the southwest Oklahoma–northwest Texas–Edwards Plateau wind corridor, the Kansas warm-front tornado window, and the Moderate flood footprints on the southern Plains and the Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa axis.

Polo is not a U.S. landfall desk this morning. NHC’s last forecast/advisory (number 38, 0300 UTC Wednesday) placed the remnants near 30.5°N 108.0°W over northwestern Mexico and forecast dissipation by 12Z Wednesday. Hanna is an open-Atlantic tropical storm well east of the mainland. Neither is a restoration staffing problem for the CONUS this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight	Afternoon–tonight initiation
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	A few tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + WPC Moderate flood	Conditional; no watch yet
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Morning and evening pulses
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo dissipated over NW Mexico	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. It is the afternoon and evening probability field. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and the Kansas warm-front counties: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is gone over northwestern Mexico. Hanna is in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2 on the SPC page is already a Marginal. Watches, if they come, will most likely fire late afternoon on the southern Plains and early evening on the Kansas warm front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 1313 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260929 (overnight) and 20260930 (today, empty after 12Z); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center remnants of Polo forecast/advisory 38. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic High Wind, Southern Plains Marginal — Saturday, September 26, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 26, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet: no Storm Prediction Center convective watches are valid. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of isolated hail and strong outflow winds for western Oklahoma into northwest Texas late this afternoon into early evening. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risk pockets from southwest Iowa into northern Missouri and along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, with a broader Marginal overlay from the southern Plains into the central Plains.

The live work this morning is not a watch box. It is High Wind Warnings on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from a strengthening coastal low, leftover water in north-central Kansas where a flash-flood warning was replaced by a flood advisory, and a few overnight local storm reports. These are county-scale thunderstorms and coastal wind, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven trees and service drops on the coast, isolated hail and outflow later on the southern Plains, and interior water where yesterday’s High Plains rain is still in the channel. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC current watches: none. Most recently issued watch was 0674, already expired. The 0655 AM CDT Day 1 discussion (Smith/Bentley) is explicit: morning showers and thunderstorms over the southern High Plains should dissipate, with new storm development around 21–23 UTC (4–6 p.m. CDT). Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible mainly 22z–02z. Elsewhere, SPC calls the severe environment quiescent.

WPC valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday: Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance from roughly southwest Iowa into northern Missouri, and a second Slight along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from the Delmarva through Cape Cod and adjacent waters. A Marginal Risk covers a large southern-to-central Plains corridor plus a coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast swath.

National Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo are well out in the open Atlantic and are not a U.S. land threat this morning. Hurricane Nolo remains nearly stationary well south of the Big Island of Hawaii and is forecast to stay south of the islands; that is a Hawaii flood-and-wind desk, not a mainland landfall. Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Odalys and Polo are Mexico-waters storms, not CONUS landfalls.

Hotspot 1 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England high wind

This is the live warning desk. National Weather Service Mount Holly holds a High Wind Warning until 6:00 a.m. EDT Sunday for Delaware beaches and coastal New Jersey counties including Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and Coastal Ocean. Language: north winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph; trees and power lines; widespread outages possible. Boston/Norton holds High Wind Warnings until 8:00 a.m. EDT Sunday for eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with northeast gusts 50–60 mph on the exposed coast and 50 mph inland over Kent and Providence counties. WPC’s coastal Slight excessive-rainfall risk sits under the same system: heaviest totals preferred offshore, but localized heavy rain can still reach the Jersey Shore through southern New England.

Cities and counties to watch: Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Ocean City, Rehoboth Beach, Sandy Hook; Boston, Quincy, Plymouth, New Bedford, Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard; Providence, Warwick, Newport, Westerly.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree crews, generators, and tarp kits before the next peak gust period tonight. Treat coastal ZIPs as possible interior-water jobs if the Slight rain overlay verifies on already-wet ground. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas (afternoon Marginal)

SPC’s only categorical severe area today. A High Plains upper trough and a smaller-scale jet over the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma maintain a lee trough and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Morning convection is expected to die. New storms 21–23 UTC from south-central Kansas through western Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Adequately strong deep-layer shear supports a few organized cells capable of isolated large hail and severe outflow, mainly 22z–02z. Lubbock’s hazardous-weather outlook already flags isolated afternoon and evening storms off the Caprock with gusts to 65 mph and hail to quarter size.

Restoration read: this is a late-day hail and wind ticket, not a morning watch. Do not pre-position as if a Slight or Enhanced is up. Staff local warnings if they fire after 4 p.m. CDT.

Hotspot 3 — Leftover High Plains water and central Plains flood overlay

NWS Hastings replaced a flash-flood warning with a Flood Advisory through 1:00 p.m. CDT for parts of Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, and Smith Counties in north-central Kansas. That is yesterday’s rain still in the ditch, not a new MCS. WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk over southwest Iowa into northern Missouri and a Marginal from Oklahoma and West Texas north across Kansas toward the eastern Dakotas. Friday afternoon’s New Mexico flood pulse is no longer the national Slight; treat Cibola and Santa Fe as aftermath unless a new warning posts.

Great Falls holds a High Wind Warning until noon MDT for Glacier, Toole, and Pondera High Plains zones — westerly 30–50 mph, gusts to 70. That is a plains wind event, not the SPC Marginal.

Just hit

Overnight and Friday evening local storm reports, all preliminary: landspout near Wilmore in Comanche County, Kansas; one-inch hail that cracked windshields at Tecolote and near Romeroville in San Miguel County, New Mexico; 59–61 mph measured gusts in Liberty and Pondera Counties, Montana. Earlier Friday into last night on the Texas side of the same High Plains corridor: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, an estimated 60 mph north of Study Butte, and a roof section blown onto a road in Terlingua, Brewster County. No tornado watch fired. No convective watch is live this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Coastal NJ / DE / southern New England	Damaging wind, trees, outages, localized heavy rain	High Wind Warning + WPC Slight (coast)	Live warnings through Sunday morning
Western OK / northwest TX / south-central KS	Isolated hail, severe outflow	SPC Marginal 22z–02z	Afternoon–evening development
SW Iowa / northern Missouri	Training rain, flash flood	WPC Slight	Today into tonight
North-central Kansas (Jewell–Smith)	Residual flooding	Flood Advisory to 1 p.m. CDT	Aftermath / still in channel
Northern MT High Plains	High wind gusts to 70 mph	High Wind Warning to noon MDT	Live, expires midday
Hawaii (Nolo)	Flood watch Big Island / Maui County	NHC hurricane well south of islands	Hawaii desk only
U.S. mainland tropical	No landfalling hurricane	Fay / Gonzalo open Atlantic	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Coastal gusts of 50–60 mph are tree-on-structure, siding, gutter, and service-drop work. Stage before dark on the Jersey Shore and southern New England, not after the first outage ticket. The Oklahoma–Texas Marginal is a late-day hail and wind desk: a few cells, not a regional outbreak. Kansas flood-advisory counties are already wet — extraction and drying, not a new watch. Hawaii Nolo stays off the mainland board.

Property owners: photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown at low-water crossings in the WPC Slight counties.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a coastal wind swath through a New Jersey or Massachusetts county, a late-day hail core in western Oklahoma, leftover water in a Kansas creek. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Coastal High Wind Warnings run through early Sunday. The southern Plains Marginal is a same-day afternoon problem, not an overnight watch. SPC Day 2 language on the hazard matrix is No Severe for Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s High Wind Warning is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches (none valid); SPC local storm reports for 1200 UTC Sep 25–1159 UTC Sep 26; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid 12Z Sep 26–12Z Sep 27; National Weather Service warning text from Mount Holly, Boston/Norton, Great Falls, Hastings, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center public advisories for Nolo, Fay, and Gonzalo. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 25 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 26, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern High Plains Flood Slight, Quiet Severe Day — Friday, September 25, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Friday, September 25, 2026. The organized desk is still water on the southern High Plains, not a national wind outbreak. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, valid 251300Z–261200Z, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. Summary language from Norman: organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. The Weather Prediction Center 12Z Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern High Plains — southeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and parts of West Texas.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and leftover runoff, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is water already in low crossings and buildings from last night’s New Mexico–west Texas MCS, plus isolated heavy rain if cells redevelop this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watches are current. The SPC watch page, updated 1300 UTC Friday, states no watches are valid. The last issued convective watch on the board is Watch 674, already expired. Yesterday evening’s 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook had carried a Marginal Risk over parts of the Texas Panhandle; that window closed overnight. Today’s 1300 UTC package dropped categorical severe probabilities entirely.

Overnight flash-flood warnings from Midland/Odessa, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa covered northwestern Eddy County, southwestern Chaves County, and central Otero County in New Mexico, plus southeastern El Paso County and parts of Hudspeth County in western Texas. Those products were valid into the predawn hours — Eddy and Chaves until 530 AM MDT, Otero until 730 AM MDT, El Paso extensions into 330–445 AM MDT. By this morning desk they have expired. That is the just-hit pile, not a live warning overlay.

Hotspot 1 — Southeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas

This is today’s flood ticket, trimmed from Thursday’s Moderate. WPC’s 410 AM EDT Friday discussion keeps a Slight Risk from southeastern New Mexico to the southern Panhandle and extends it south into parts of West Texas, where 3-hour flash-flood guidance is under an inch. Overnight activity over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle can still produce additional flooding concerns into mid to late morning. Guidance then has storms diminishing as the shortwave and deeper moisture lift northeast. Afternoon cells over West Texas can still dump 1–2 inches locally on already wet ground.

SPC’s Day 1 discussion notes a convectively modified disturbance over eastern New Mexico lifting toward the central High Plains, mid- and high-level clouds over western Oklahoma, and only a low-probability severe gust if a stronger storm develops late this afternoon in western Oklahoma. Southern New Mexico, in the wake of the early-day MCS, may see a couple of stronger cells with some hail risk, but confidence in a severe-caliber threat is low. That is why there is no categorical severe area this morning.

Cities and counties to watch: Artesia, Hope, Lakewood, and Brantley Lake in Eddy County; Dunken and Elk in southwestern Chaves; Sacramento, Mayhill, and Weed in Otero; Tornillo, Hueco Tanks, and rural east-central El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Streams named in overnight warning text include the Rio Penasco, Bluewater Creek, and Agua Chiquita Creek.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on structures that took overnight runoff. Low-water crossings and rural roads in the Sacramento Mountains and Pecos Valley stay a drive-around, not a drive-through. Stage pumps where last night’s warnings sat. Do not treat this as a wind event.

Hotspot 2 — Western Oklahoma scatter

SPC leaves the door cracked for a stronger storm or two late this afternoon over western Oklahoma under modest mid-level lapse rates and up to about 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with a low-probability severe gust. Cloud cover from the departing MCS and tropical-origin moisture aloft will limit heating. This is not a watch candidate at 1300 UTC. Treat it as isolated outflow and lightning, not a Plains outbreak.

Hotspot 3 — Hurricane Nolo, Big Island of Hawaii

The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center are issuing advisories on Hurricane Nolo. As of the 200 AM HST Friday advisory, Nolo was near 15.8°N 155.6°W, moving north-northeast at 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and a minimum pressure of 980 mb. Headline language: catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding possible on the Big Island of Hawaii into the weekend. Local NWS Honolulu products own the island warning suite. This is a Hawaii County flood-and-wind desk, not a CONUS landfall. Fay and Gonzalo in the Atlantic and Odalys and Polo in the eastern Pacific are not U.S. mainland land threats this morning.

Just hit

SPC today’s storm reports for the 1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25 window show no tornado reports and no hail reports as of this desk. One preliminary wind report: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, Texas, at 1758 UTC Thursday, relayed by NWS Lubbock. That is yesterday afternoon’s High Plains Marginal, not a new overnight severe pile.

The overnight work that did verify is water. NWS Midland issued a flash-flood warning for northwestern Eddy County until 530 AM MDT covering Artesia, Hope, Seven Rivers, Brantley Lake, Dayton, Lakewood, and Atoka. Albuquerque warned southwestern Chaves County until 530 AM MDT for Dunken and Elk, with considerable damage-threat language on the Rio Penasco and Bluewater Creek. El Paso/Santa Teresa warned central Otero County until 730 AM MDT for Sacramento, Mayhill, Weed, and several canyons, and separately warned pieces of El Paso and Hudspeth Counties where 1 to 3 inches had already fallen. Those warnings are expired this morning. Survey and extraction replace the warning overlay.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
SE NM / TX Panhandle / West Texas	Flash flood, leftover runoff, isolated heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Overnight FFWs expired; Slight still live
Western OK / southern NM cells	Isolated gust or hail, low confidence	SPC 1300 UTC: no categorical area	Afternoon scatter only
Hall County, TX (Memphis)	60 mph wind Thursday afternoon	Yesterday Marginal LSR	Just-hit / closed
Big Island, Hawaii	Flash flood, tropical wind	Hurricane Nolo, 85 mph	Live Hawaii desk
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches valid; last was 674	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Friday is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a water desk on the southern High Plains. Overnight flash flooding in Eddy, Chaves, Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth Counties is the work that already happened. Interior water starts a 24–48 hour mold clock. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Do not drive flooded crossings in the Sacramento Mountains or the Pecos Valley.

Western Oklahoma and southern New Mexico may still fire isolated strong cells this afternoon. Staff that as local lightning and a possible isolated gust or hail stone, not a regional wind swath. Hawaii County is a separate tropical-flood ticket under Nolo. Do not mix that crew map with the New Mexico overnight pile.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC has no Day 1 severe area. No convective watch is up. Thursday’s Moderate flood risk over southeast New Mexico has been stepped down to a Slight. The work this morning is leftover water and a trimmed rainfall overlay. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The SPC 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook, valid 261200Z–271200Z Saturday, carries a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the central and southern Plains. Summary: isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday from parts of Kansas into western Texas and Oklahoma, including the Wichita-to-Lubbock corridor. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than treating Friday’s quiet severe map as the weekend map.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, September 25, 2026; SPC current watch page (no watches valid; last issued Watch 674); SPC storm reports for 1200 UTC September 24 through 1159 UTC September 25; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion issued 410 AM EDT Friday; National Weather Service flash-flood warning text from Midland/Odessa, Albuquerque, and El Paso/Santa Teresa overnight; National Hurricane Center / Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory on Hurricane Nolo at 200 AM HST Friday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon, September 24 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 25, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico–Plains Flood Slight, Dakotas Hail Pulse — Thursday, September 24, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Thursday, September 24, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe corridor from Wednesday’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk did verify on the Local Storm Report board — a brief tornado west of Hettinger and baseball-size hail near South Heart, North Dakota. Convective watches are not currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, valid 241200Z–251200Z, carries no categorical severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated stronger storms with hail or gusty winds remain possible late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas.

The water desk is still the national headline, not wind. Weather Prediction Center short-range language this morning keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into the south-central Plains, with a broader Marginal Risk from the Four Corners into the central Plains as leftover tropical moisture and embedded shortwaves keep training cells possible on already wet ground. These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover water in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, isolated hail and wind on the Dakotas just-hit pile, and a Hawaii watch for Tropical Storm Nolo well south of the Big Island.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, a Sunday-night eastern Colorado and western Kansas product that expired days ago. Yesterday’s western Dakotas and southern Appalachians Marginal Risk is off the Day 1 map. The 0600 UTC discussion from Guyer and Thornton is plain: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. The same discussion still flags pockets of moderate destabilization into peak heating across southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and the southern High Plains.

The SPC overview hazard matrix later this morning lists Thursday as a Marginal severe day. Treat that as the later-cycle read against the published 0600 UTC text of “no severe thunderstorm areas forecast.” Either way, this is not a watch morning. Isolated hail or a damaging gust is the ceiling unless a new outlook or mesoscale discussion draws a tighter box this afternoon.

On the flood side, Wednesday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Moderate Risk over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and central and eastern New Mexico has rolled off the valid window. Thursday language from WPC’s short-range public discussion is a step down: Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into portions of the south-central Plains, Marginal Risk across much of the Four Corners into the central Plains. Soils are still saturated. Rates, not coverage, are the problem if a cell trains.

Hotspot 1 — New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas

This remains the water desk. Overnight, National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Warning for northwestern Grant, southeastern Hamilton, western Kearny, northeastern Morton, and eastern Stanton Counties in southwestern Kansas until 5:00 a.m. CDT. Radar-indicated totals of 2 to 3 inches were already on the ground at issuance, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. That warning is off the clock this morning. It is the signature of the same moisture plume that spent midweek over New Mexico.

WPC still expects scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday as large-scale forcing weakens but instability and embedded shortwave energy remain. Portions of New Mexico and Texas stay sensitive because of the multi-day rain. Localized 1-inch-per-hour rates on burn scars, arroyos, urban streets, and low water crossings are the first failures. A separate, lower-coverage pulse is possible in southeast Arizona under the same southwesterly mid-level flow.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on buildings that took water Tuesday and Wednesday, plus a new poor-drainage ticket if a cell parks on a ZIP that already failed. Do not treat the whole Moderate-Risk footprint from yesterday as still live. Staff the county that still has a warning, not the outline from Wednesday afternoon.

Hotspot 2 — Western North Dakota just-hit pile

Wednesday afternoon’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk produced the overnight LSR pile. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports for the 1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24 window include:

A brief tornado around 2236 UTC about 3 miles south-southwest of Bucyrus in Adams County, North Dakota, based on social-media video and radar, west of Hettinger. NWS Bismarck logged the location as approximate.
Quarter-size hail (1.00 inch) at New England, Hettinger County, at 2307 UTC.
Half-dollar hail (1.25 inches) about 3 miles southeast of Belfield, Stark County, at 2340 UTC.
Baseball-size hail (2.75 inches) about 2 miles southwest of South Heart, Stark County, at 2345 UTC.

Those are official preliminary LSRs, not social rumor. Hail that size breaks windows, dents siding, and wrecks HVAC fins. The tornado report is a one-minute touchdown, not a long-track event. Restoration work there is already a survey-and-tarp job, not a new watch.

Hotspot 3 — Southern High Plains scatter plus leftover wind reports

SPC’s Day 1 discussion leaves the door open for a few stronger, locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas. That is isolated hail and gusty outflow, not a Slight Risk corridor. Yesterday’s board also carries a 58 mph thunderstorm gust 4 miles southeast of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC, and a tree down in Van Wert, Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC. Those are scatter, not a line.

Farther east, an amplifying coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic and New England is a marine and coastal-flood story, not a convective watch. WPC flags coastal flooding, rip currents, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend. That is a different desk from the New Mexico flood pulse.

Tropical — Nolo south of Hawaii, not a mainland landfall

Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday, Nolo was about 285 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and about 460 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, stationary, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 999 mb. Official language: Nolo is forecast to intensify into a hurricane late today and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. That is a Hawaii County and offshore-waters problem, not a Gulf or East Coast landfall. Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys remain in the eastern Pacific off Mexico. Tropical Storm Fay is in the open Atlantic well west-southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat.

Just hit

Wednesday’s live desk was still water over central and eastern New Mexico, with SPC trimmed to a western Dakotas Marginal. That Dakotas box verified overnight on hail and a brief tornado. The New Mexico Moderate flood risk has stepped down to Slight into the south-central Plains. Southwestern Kansas took a late-night flash-flood warning that expired at 5:00 a.m. CDT. No new convective watch fired overnight. Watch 674 is not today’s product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NM into TX/OK Panhandles and western KS	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Live flood overlay; KS FFW expired 5 a.m. CDT
SE AZ / southern NM / southern High Plains	Isolated hail, gusty wind, heavy rain	SPC 0600 UTC: no categorical area; isolated stronger storms possible	Afternoon–evening scatter
Western ND (Hettinger / Stark)	Hail damage, brief tornado	Yesterday Marginal; LSRs in	Just-hit / survey
Four Corners to central Plains	Isolated heavy rain	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Diurnal cells
East Coast marine / New England coast	Coastal flood, wind, heavy rain	WPC / OPC coastal low	Not a convective watch
Hawaii — Nolo	Tropical storm to hurricane risk south of the islands	CPHC TS Nolo, 50 mph	Watch Hawaii products, not mainland
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and the southern High Plains are still a water week. Saturated ground plus another Slight Risk means the next training cell is a wet-drywall and crawlspace ticket, not a surprise. Photograph and extract what already flooded before you chase a new ZIP. Southwestern Kansas counties that sat under last night’s warning should be treated as just-hit poor-drainage work until local offices drop the flood language.

Western North Dakota is a hail desk. Baseball stone southwest of South Heart is broken glass and bruised roofs. The Adams County tornado report is a narrow path. Staff it as a local damage survey. Do not read “tornado” on an LSR board as a regional event.

If the later SPC cycle firms a Marginal box over the southern High Plains, the work is still isolated hail and outflow, not a watch. Stage tarps only where a warning is live. Hawaii shops should follow Central Pacific Hurricane Center products on Nolo, not this CONUS flood pulse.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo and Odalys are eastern Pacific storms off Mexico. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Nolo is a Central Pacific storm still south of the Big Island. The CONUS work this morning is leftover flood water, a North Dakota hail pile, and a quiet watch board.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2, valid Friday, currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC still sees the moisture axis shifting east Friday into the south-central Plains and Midwest with another heavy-rain overlay possible. SPC Day 3 language returns a Marginal Risk later in the weekend as an upper trough works the central United States. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming Thursday’s quiet watch board is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, September 24, 2026; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0705 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports for 20260923 1200 UTC–20260924 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and short-range public discussion valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Saturday; National Weather Service Dodge City flash-flood warning text for southwestern Kansas; Central Pacific Hurricane Center / National Hurricane Center public products on Tropical Storm Nolo as of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Western Dakotas Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 24, 2026