Storm Updates: Oklahoma Moderate Flood — Oct 14 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook upgraded to Moderate Risk over central Oklahoma and the Red River Valley of Texas (valid 12Z 14 Oct – 12Z 15 Oct), from the prior Slight Risk that covered a broader Plains corridor yesterday.
• SPC Day 1 remains Slight Risk across the southern Plains (Oklahoma City, Norman, Lawton, Wichita Falls, Midland and vicinity), but no convective watches are currently valid; yesterday afternoon’s Severe Thunderstorm Watches 683 and 684 have expired.
• Overnight and early-morning Flash Flood Warnings are active across western and central Oklahoma (including portions of the Oklahoma City metro) and parts of West Texas, with radar-indicated totals of 2–8 inches already reported in warned areas — a clear escalation from the earlier flood-watch posture.
• Flood Watches remain in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas counties, with local offices highlighting multi-round heavy rain potential and record or near-record precipitable water values.
• No named tropical cyclone threatens the U.S. coast or Gulf of America; Atlantic basin remains quiet with no formation expected in the next seven days.

Pulse Table

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Issued 0739 AM CDT / 1239 UTC 14 October 2026, valid 13Z 14 Oct – 12Z 15 Oct. Categorical Slight Risk covers approximately 73,000 square miles and includes major population centers such as Oklahoma City, Norman, Wichita Falls TX, Midland TX, and Lawton OK. A broader Marginal Risk extends from parts of the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, where a lower-end wind-damage threat is possible this afternoon and evening.

Early-morning surface observations and radar show a wavy outflow boundary stretching from southern Illinois across southeast Missouri, northern Arkansas, and eastern/central/southwest Oklahoma into the Texas South Plains. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are present north of this outflow but predominantly south of the primary cold front, which extends from the northern Texas Panhandle east-northeastward across northwest and north-central Oklahoma, then northeast through southeast Kansas, central Missouri, and northern Illinois. Southerly low- to mid-level flow is expected to persist, with warm-air advection across the outflow boundary likely maintaining convection from the Texas Panhandle eastward across western and central Oklahoma for much of the day. Southward progression of the outflow is expected to slow this morning, with the boundary eventually returning northward as a warm front later this evening. The cold front is forecast to remain nearly stationary for much of the period.

Uncertainty remains regarding exactly where the outflow boundary will stall and where the best severe potential will focus. Across the southern High Plains, daytime heating is expected to destabilize the airmass east of the stalled outflow, with temperatures potentially reaching the mid-80s amid mid- to upper-60s dewpoints. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 40–50 knots will support initial supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Upscale growth into one or more linear bowing segments is possible with time, shifting the primary threat toward damaging wind gusts. Farther north from northwest Texas into east-central and southeast Oklahoma, the scenario is more complex. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along and south of the outflow boundary, with the strongest buoyancy expected across south-central and southeast Oklahoma where mid-70s dewpoints remain in place. Additional strong to severe storms are possible as the outflow retreats northward later this afternoon and evening, and as eastward-progressing linear clusters move into the moist and unstable airmass. A strengthening low-level jet will support a low-probability tornado risk with any more cellular warm-sector development this evening, particularly across southwest into south-central Oklahoma where vertically veering profiles are anticipated. No Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches are currently valid.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Valid 12Z 14 Oct – 12Z 15 Oct. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall — the probability that rainfall will exceed flash-flood guidance within 25 miles of a point — across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. This is an upgrade from the Slight Risk that covered a broader corridor from the central and southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley in earlier outlooks. The greatest probabilities for exceeding the 3-inch, 5-inch, and even 8-inch thresholds are positioned over central Oklahoma, with the Oklahoma City metro area a notable data point within the elevated probability fields. Latest CAM and global deterministic guidance indicate widespread areas of 3–5 inches of rain with local maxima upwards of 8 inches according to low-end ensemble probabilities.

The setup features a classic longwave pattern suitable for widespread convective impacts and heavy-rain potential from southwest Texas through the Plains, arcing back into the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convergent flow around the western periphery of a ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, combined with multi-round evolution of convection and a strengthening low-level jet, supports training and backbuilding potential. In coordination with the Norman, Oklahoma forecast office, the Moderate Risk was added with emphasis on areas from southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin up through central Oklahoma and into the Tulsa metro area. Despite some antecedent drier conditions, the record-breaking environment in terms of precipitable water values and a repeating axis of convection is sufficient for locally significant flash-flood potential, especially into the Oklahoma City metro where flash-flooding concerns are highest. Flood Watches already cover much of Oklahoma and parts of northern Texas through Thursday afternoon.

Active Watches, Warnings, and Overnight Reports

As of early Wednesday morning, multiple Flash Flood Warnings were in effect from the Norman and Midland/Odessa Weather Forecast Offices. Examples include warnings covering portions of Blaine, Caddo, Custer, Washita, Greer, Beckham, Canadian, Cleveland, Kingfisher, and adjacent counties in Oklahoma, as well as Brewster, Pecos, and Presidio Counties in southwestern Texas. Radar indicated 2–8 inches of rain already fallen in some warned areas, with additional rainfall amounts of 1–2 inches possible. Specific warnings have covered locations such as El Reno, Weatherford, Clinton, Elk City, Oklahoma City metro suburbs, and Alpine, Texas. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued earlier in southwestern Oklahoma, including for portions of Kiowa and Greer Counties. Flood Watches remain in effect through Thursday afternoon for a broad swath of Oklahoma and parts of northern Texas. Local offices note that a very moist airmass with record or near-record precipitable water values will foster very efficient rainfall processes, with multiple rounds of heavy rain expected between now and Thursday morning and an increasing flash-flood risk. River Flood Advisories have also been issued for portions of the North Canadian River near Yukon, with stages expected to rise into action stage.

Tropical

The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America as of the 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on 14 October 2026. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days in the Atlantic basin. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Simon is located near 19.8°N 108.1°W with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, drifting west-southwest at 3 mph, and Tropical Storm Trudy is near 11.1°N 99.0°W with winds of 50 mph, moving west-northwest at 10 mph and expected to become a hurricane within the next day or so. Both systems are well offshore Mexico; interests in west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur should continue to monitor, but there is no threat to the United States coast or Gulf of America. No Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, or Hurricane Watches or Warnings are in effect for any U.S. coastline.

Rising queries

Trends unreachable.

Informational only — not an official warning. Always consult the latest products from the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center for official guidance and warnings.