Tag: Storm Damage

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

• Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Outlook updated at 0100 UTC Oct 28 (7:59 PM CDT Oct 27, valid 280100Z–281200Z) maintains a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms but contracts it to portions of Far West Texas only (approx. 7,958 sq mi, population ~15,706 including Pecos TX). Previously included southeast New Mexico. Isolated large hail possible for a few more hours this evening before the threat becomes minimal overnight with loss of heating.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0000 UTC Wed Oct 28, valid 01Z–12Z Wed Oct 28) continues to show the probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
• No convective watches or current Mesoscale Discussions are valid. Earlier activity near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains has diminished. No new severe local storm reports elevating the day.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~40 mph, moving northwest offshore southwestern Mexico) poses no U.S. land threat.
• Lanes unchanged overall. Severe remains Marginal (footprint reduced and short-term). Flood remains Quiet. Residual river Flood Warnings on the Rio Grande system and tributaries continue as the primary lingering concern.

Live Status

As of this Tuesday evening afternoon desk scan (approx. 04:14 UTC Oct 28 / 9:14 PM PDT Oct 27), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The latest SPC Day 1 places a Level 1 Marginal Risk over a small portion of Far West Texas for isolated severe thunderstorms for the next few hours this evening. A remaining storm or two could produce large hail before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Coverage stays low and population exposure is limited. No watches are in effect, and the overnight severe threat is minimal.

WPC holds no Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook risk areas. Residual Flood Warnings persist on elevated rivers from prior multi-day rainfall across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin, including segments of the Rio Grande, Rio Chama, and related tributaries in New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas. Saturated soils maintain localized sensitivity for runoff even without new heavy rain. Coastal Flood Warnings remain active in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida east coast and southern California from tides and onshore flow, outside the main convective/ERO lanes.

Hotspots

• Far West Texas: SPC Marginal (contracted). Isolated thunderstorms with large hail possible near Pecos for a few more hours this evening. Low population exposure and sparse coverage limit impacts. No elevated tornado risk. Threat minimal overnight.
• Residual Rio Grande and tributary river flooding (NM, CO, TX): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior heavy rain. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in arroyos, low-water crossings, and low-lying areas.
• Coastal Florida and southern California: Coastal Flood Warnings and high rip current risks continue from onshore flow and high tides. Secondary concern only.

Just-Hit

Minor to moderate river flooding continues on Rio Grande system segments and related tributaries. Earlier convective activity in far West Texas and southeast New Mexico has largely diminished. No widespread damage reports. Localized water intrusion and road impacts remain possible on saturated ground. Turn around, don’t drown.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Primary residual ticket remains localized river flooding and saturated-soil runoff impacts across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin. Isolated large hail in the short-term Marginal severe area of Far West Texas could cause limited roof, vehicle, or window damage, but low coverage keeps effects sparse. No organized severe or excessive rainfall expected tonight. Coastal flooding is tide-driven and secondary. Monitor previously warned zones for lingering water intrusion and road closures.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. SPC is only Marginal (not Slight or above). No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning. Always verify with weather.gov for your local area.

Looking Ahead

Wednesday Day 2: SPC Marginal severe risk over the Upper Mississippi Valley (conditional isolated hail/wind if heating occurs). WPC Day 2 Marginal excessive rainfall for east-central and southeast Florida. Day 3 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of West and Central Texas as remnant moisture from TS Vance is drawn northward—monitor closely, as organized convection on sensitive ground could elevate flash flood potential. Residual flood sensitivity lingers in the Southwest.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 28), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO <5%, issued ~0000 UTC Oct 28), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance EPAC). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

• Compared with the prior afternoon desk pulse (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Outlook introduced then held a Marginal Risk. The 0100 UTC Oct 28 update (7:59 PM CDT) contracts the Marginal to a small portion of Far West Texas (~7,958 sq mi, population ~15,706 including Pecos TX). Previously broader SE NM into Far West TX. Isolated severe possible for a few more hours this evening before minimal overnight.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0000 UTC Wed Oct 28, valid 01Z–12Z Wed Oct 28) remains probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas. Prior Marginal Risks have ended.
• Residual Flood Warnings continue on the Rio Grande system and tributaries in New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Texas from prior multi-day rainfall. Saturated soils persist. Some earlier Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (e.g., Reeves and Jeff Davis Counties TX) verified isolated hail/wind but no widespread reports.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Atlantic free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~40 mph, moving NW well offshore southwestern Mexico) poses no U.S. land threat.
• Severe lane holds at Marginal with contraction and short-term focus; Flood remains Quiet. Residual river flooding is the primary lingering concern. Nothing material upgraded beyond Marginal.

Live Status

As of the Tuesday evening scan for the October 27 morning desk (approx. 04:12 UTC Oct 28 / 9:12 PM PDT Oct 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC places a Level 1 Marginal Risk over a small portion of Far West Texas for isolated severe thunderstorms for a few more hours this evening. A remaining storm or two could pose an isolated large hail threat before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Coverage is low. No convective watches or active Mesoscale Discussions. The severe threat becomes minimal for the remainder of the overnight period.

WPC confirms no Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Risk (probability <5%). Residual river Flood Warnings continue on the Rio Grande, Rio Puerco, Rio Chama, San Juan River, and related segments across NM, CO, UT, and TX due to prior multi-day rainfall and saturated soils. Coastal Flood Warnings exist in limited coastal areas (Florida Keys, northeast Florida, San Diego/Orange County) driven by onshore flow and high tides but fall outside main lanes. Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Warnings earlier this evening (Midland/Odessa for Reeves/Jeff Davis Counties) indicated hail to 1.5" and gusts to 60 mph, but no widespread LSRs.

Hotspots

• Far West Texas: SPC Marginal (contracted). Isolated thunderstorms with large hail possible this evening near Pecos. Low population exposure and sparse coverage limit impacts. Threat winds down overnight.
• Residual river flooding zones: Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events on the Rio Grande system and tributaries. Saturated soils elevate sensitivity for runoff in arroyos and low-lying areas.

Just-Hit

Minor to moderate river flooding continues on segments of the Rio Grande and tributaries. Earlier flash flood concerns have largely expired. Isolated severe thunderstorm activity produced localized hail and wind reports in Far West Texas this evening but nothing widespread. Localized water intrusion and road impacts remain possible on saturated ground. Turn around, don’t drown.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Primary residual ticket is localized river flooding impacts from prior heavy rain across the Four Corners and Rio Grande basin, with saturated soils. Isolated large hail possible in the Marginal severe area of Far West TX could produce localized roof, vehicle, or window damage, but low coverage limits effects. No organized severe or excessive rainfall expected tonight. Monitor for lingering water intrusion and road closures in previously warned zones. Coastal flooding is tide-driven and secondary.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. SPC is only Marginal (not Slight or above). No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning. Always verify with weather.gov for your local area.

Looking Ahead

Wednesday Day 2: SPC Marginal severe risk potential over the Upper Mississippi Valley. WPC Day 2 Marginal excessive rainfall for east-central/southeast Florida. Day 3 may bring elevated rainfall risks into portions of Texas as remnant moisture interacts with shortwave features. Residual flood sensitivity lingers in the Southwest where soils remain wet.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100 UTC Oct 28; prior 2000Z), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO <5%), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, isolated SVRs), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-afternoon.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

• Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Marginal): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC / 2:54 PM CDT Monday, October 26, 2026, valid 262000Z–271200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Isolated strong thunderstorms remain possible across far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, but organized severe potential is low. No convective watches or Mesoscale Discussions are currently valid.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0051 UTC Tuesday, October 27 / ~8:51 PM EDT Monday, October 26, valid 01Z–12Z October 27) holds a MARGINAL RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (footprint reduced) and the mid to lower Texas Coast from Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay. No Slight or higher.
• Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in west-central Chaves County, New Mexico, and portions of far west Texas / Texas Panhandle. Minor flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin free of tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific, weakening, moving west well south of Mexico) and Post-Tropical Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
• Nothing material moved to open a Slight or higher lane. Severe remains Quiet; flood remains Marginal. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of this Monday afternoon desk, October 26, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT / 0414Z October 27), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC confirms no severe thunderstorm areas through the remainder of the Day 1 period. Isolated thunderstorms continue along the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West Texas under modest instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) but limited effective shear (≤30 kt), keeping the severe threat isolated. No watches or MDs are in effect.

WPC holds only Marginal Risks. On the High Plains, scattered storms associated with a shortwave may produce localized heavy rain, especially near terrain or on already wet soils. Along the mid to lower Texas Coast, increasing precipitable water and southerly flow support potential for localized heavy amounts near the immediate coast, with isolated flooding possible in urbanized areas. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

• Southeast New Mexico and far west Texas (Sacramento / Davis Mountains corridor): Residual isolated strong storms and active Flash Flood Warnings on sensitive terrain and saturated soils.
• Central and southern High Plains (Texas Panhandle into adjacent New Mexico/Kansas): WPC Marginal. Isolated training storms possible with localized 1–2 inches; flash-flood risk mainly on sensitive soils.
• Mid to lower Texas Coast (Matagorda Bay to near Baffin Bay): Marginal ERO. Localized heavy rain possible near the immediate coast with potential for isolated urban flooding.

Just-Hit

Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for west-central Chaves County, New Mexico. Additional Flash Flood Warnings for portions of far west Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Minor river flooding on the Rio Grande near Castolon, Texas. No widespread severe local storm reports confirmed today beyond isolated strong cells. Localized road and low-lying flooding continues in the warned areas.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Residual ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff on saturated soils, arroyos, small streams, urban corridors, and burn scars across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated strong storms may produce brief hail or gusty winds but no organized severe damage expected. Texas Coast carries a secondary urban flash-flood ticket under the Marginal. No widespread catastrophic damage. Monitor for lingering water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

Looking Ahead

Tuesday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Residual flash-flood sensitivity may linger where soils remain saturated on the High Plains and Texas Coast, but the overall threat winds down overnight into early Tuesday. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 26), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, 01Z update), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance / Post-Tropical Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-26-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

As of this Sunday afternoon desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 8:15 PM PDT / 03:15 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains and southeast Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

• Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25 / 2:55 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle (roughly 92,000 sq mi, 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, Roswell). Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this afternoon/evening. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Threat remains isolated.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (West Texas, New Mexico, Colorado) and southeast Florida. Highest rainfall rates 1–1.5 inches per hour possible over already saturated soils in the Southwest. No Moderate or above.
• Local NWS offices continue to issue Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (e.g., near Roswell in Chaves County) and residual Flash Flood concerns. Flood Watches remain on saturated soils in New Mexico. No elevation of any lane.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
• Nothing moved beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas where MLCAPE values support stronger cells under 30–40+ kt effective shear. No changes were made to the existing outlook in the 2000Z update. No convective watches are active.

NWS Albuquerque has issued recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for areas near Roswell (central Chaves County) with 60 mph gusts and half-dollar size hail possible. Flood Watches cover portions of central and eastern New Mexico on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall. Residual flash-flood risk persists in urban corridors and small streams.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains and southeast Florida. In the High Plains, PWAT values support rainfall rates up to 1–1.5 inches per hour. In southeast Florida, onshore flow supports 1–2 inches with urban flash-flood potential along the I-95 corridor. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

• Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active or recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Flood Watches on saturated soils.
• Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
• Southeast Florida: WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Onshore flow and coastal convergence support 1–2 inches with locally higher totals. Urban flash-flood potential along the I-95 corridor.

Just-Hit

Recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings near Roswell (Chaves County) for 60 mph gusts and hail. Residual Flash Flood concerns on saturated soils. No confirmed significant tornado reports this evening. Localized flooding and isolated severe impacts continue in the Southwest.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, Roswell, El Paso), small streams, and burn scars on already saturated soils. Southeast Florida carries an urban flash-flood ticket under the Slight ERO. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

Looking Ahead

Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe risk area. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 25), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance and TS Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.