Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

• SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours this evening) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
• Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated per final NHC/WPC products. Residual flash flood risk continues to decrease across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Remnants of Rachel support the residual Slight ERO in the Southwest/Great Basin. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf.
• Active Flash Flood Warnings remain in southwestern Utah (Zion National Park area, Forsyth burn scar in Washington County) with considerable damage threat from ongoing or recent heavy rain. Winter Storm Warnings continue in parts of Montana (Absaroka/Beartooth, Crazy Mountains, Judith Gap, Helena Valley area) for additional snow accumulations.
• Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest. The primary severe window from the remnants of Isaias has closed as the band moved offshore.

WPC Day 1 ERO carries a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, with the highest residual concern in western Arizona where heavy rainfall remains most persistent overnight. The Moderate Risk was dropped due to reduced convective coverage. Mid-Atlantic is Marginal as residual heavy rain from the dissipated Isaias low decreases. Active Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of southwestern Utah, including Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar, with life-threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, slot canyons, and dry washes already occurring or imminent. Between 0.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen in affected areas.

No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land. Winter Storm Warnings remain active in elevated terrain of Montana for additional heavy snow through Monday morning.

Pulse Table

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.