Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight
What Changed
- SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC / 12:35 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121200Z–131200Z, and subsequent updates including 0100 UTC) holds NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. Dropped from the prior Marginal residual on Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest. No convective watches valid. Zero LSRs for the period.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from dissipated Tropical Storm Rachel. Unchanged category.
- Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion, Forsyth burn scar, Paria corridor) expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in burn scars and slot canyons. Mid-Atlantic residual closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture tracked only as WPC flood residual. Hurricane Simon (Eastern Pacific) offshore Mexico, no U.S. land threat. Quiet Pulse holds.
Live Status
As of the Monday morning desk, October 12, 2026, the national picture is Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists no severe thunderstorm probability areas and no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Isolated thunderstorms possible near a cold front across the Great Lakes or in the Intermountain West under southwest flow, but no severe threat forecast. Zero local storm reports.
WPC Day 1 ERO holds the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest Arizona, Wasatch and canyon areas of Utah). Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible through the day into evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons keep flash-flood potential elevated even after warnings expired. Pattern expected to shift east after Monday night.
No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole residual tropical influence, tracked by WPC. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains; non-severe. High wind products in the Intermountain West are non-severe.
Pulse Table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch) | Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff | WPC Slight ERO | Residual live from Rachel; threat through day then shifts east |
| Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT) | Residual flash flood, slot canyons | FFW and Flood Watches expired | Wave passed; residual downstream possible |
| Mid-Atlantic residual / eastern NC-SE VA | None | SPC none; WPC none | Closed overnight; remains closed |
| Carolinas rivers | Minor river flooding residual | Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe | Receding from prior rains |
| CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook | None | SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs | Quiet |
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.
Storm hubs (residual): Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.
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