Tag: Utah

Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning

As of this Thursday morning desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 23 / 0412Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues moving away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon) and the prior version of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico (expanded southward into NW NM). Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Surrounding Slight Risk remains.
NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch have been in effect across portions of Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) and other Four Corners drainages. Flood Watches continue regionally.
Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk is the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This morning desk is updated in place under the standard slug; afternoon companion already live under quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-afternoon.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and the Four Corners. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy supports robust storms into the evening (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg in favored areas) with deep-layer shear of 50–60 kt. Primary hazards are large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two, maximized from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the Great Basin.

WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Antecedent rainfall, upslope flow and training convection support elevated flash-flood potential. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible; additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) expected in the Moderate area. A broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest terrain. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

Hotspots

Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations. Flash Flood Warnings verified in upstream Arizona basins.

Eastern and central Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and topography align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain in or near the risk area. Flash flooding accompanies the convection.

Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.

Just-Hit

National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been in effect for portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings are active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 23 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Josephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, few tornadoes. Prior Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Watch in AZ. Marginal elsewhere.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

What This Is Not

This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains scattered.

Looking Ahead One Day

Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23, 2026): spc.noaa.gov
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches/warnings: weather.gov
NHC Josephine post-tropical: nhc.noaa.gov
Previous desk: Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21
Afternoon companion: Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

As of this Thursday afternoon desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 23 / 0414Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico, with scattered severe storms remaining possible across the Southwest and Great Basin into the evening. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues accelerating northeastward away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-morning): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight; category unchanged.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible amid training convection and upslope flow; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Slight Risk surrounds it. Category unchanged from morning.
NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low (last advisory). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning remains in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and watches have been in effect across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Tornado Warnings were issued earlier for parts of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and into New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat, and other Four Corners drainages. Local storm reports continue to verify large hail and damaging winds.
Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk remains the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This afternoon desk updates in place under the standard slug and links the morning desk under Sources.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy around 1000 J/kg supports robust storms into the evening, with favorable deep-layer shear (50–60 kt) for hail and severe gusts. A tornado or two remains possible, particularly from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Farther north into the Great Basin, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible under more limited buoyancy, with damaging gusts the primary hazard. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the region.

WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Anomalous moisture, diffluent flow, and training convection continue to support flash flooding. The San Juans see the heaviest accumulations, with model consensus for 3–4 inches and localized higher. Broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest and Four Corners areas. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

Hotspots

Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Flash Flood Warnings already verified in parts of Arizona that feed into the region. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations.

Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk with active convection. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and terrain align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain influenced. Flash flooding accompanies the convection. Verifying reports of hail and wind continue.

Just-Hit

National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. Tornado Warnings were issued this afternoon for portions of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and parts of New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors. No confirmed tornado damage reports received so far today. No widespread major river flooding reported.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 23 Oct 2026)
Tropical	None	Josephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, tornado or two possible. Prior warnings and watches in AZ/NM. LSRs verifying hail/wind. Marginal elsewhere.
Flood	Moderate	WPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ and NM. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. Isolated tornado potential adds tree and structure damage risk where rotation was indicated. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

What This Is Not

This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated to scattered severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains limited.

Looking Ahead One Day

Sources

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23, 2026): spc.noaa.gov
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
NWS watches/warnings: weather.gov
NHC Josephine post-tropical: nhc.noaa.gov
Morning desk: Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning
Previous day: Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 22, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0746 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121300Z–131200Z) remains NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: no severe weather forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. No change from the morning desk. No convective watches valid. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC Oct 12 onward) show zero tornado, hail, or wind reports.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC / 3:48 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 12Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel continues the threat into this afternoon and evening before the pattern shifts east. No change in category from morning.
Flash Flood Warnings for the Paria River corridor (Coconino County, AZ / south-central Kane County, UT) remain in effect this morning. NWS Flagstaff and Salt Lake City report a confirmed flood wave (gauge rise ~3 feet, flow to 2200 CFS). Life-threatening flash flooding of slot canyons, dry washes, and the Colorado River confluence near Lees Ferry. Warnings expire late morning (around 11 AM MDT / 10 AM PDT). Flood Watches continue for western/northern AZ and much of Utah through this afternoon.
Winter Storm Warnings for elevated terrain in central and north-central Montana have expired. No new organized severe windows. Mid-Atlantic residual closed overnight remains closed.

Live Status

As of Monday afternoon, October 12, 2026 (~9:30 AM PDT / 12:30 PM EDT), the national desk stays in Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. The organized severe window from Isaias remnants closed overnight and has not reopened.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture under the deep western trough supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate the flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover the Paria River flood wave this morning; the highest residual risk remains over western AZ terrain and southern UT canyons.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence, tracked solely by WPC as a flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible this afternoon into evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual western AZ terrain.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — Active Flash Flood Warnings this morning for the confirmed flood wave. Slot canyons, dry washes, Lees Ferry confluence. Window closing late morning; Flood Watches continue broader area through afternoon.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible Dakotas into Upper Midwest (small hail possible with strongest) and Intermountain West, but no severe threat. Montana winter warnings expired.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window (1200 UTC onward). The organized severe work from Sunday (NC tornadoes) is closed and under survey. The live work this morning is the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO; FFWs Paria this morning	Residual live from Rachel; threat into afternoon/evening then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Life-threatening flash flood, slot canyons, Lees Ferry	Active FFWs (gauge confirmed)	Live this morning; expires late morning; watches broader through afternoon
Mid-Atlantic residual	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Montana elevated terrain	Heavy snow (expired)	Winter Storm Warning expired	Closed; additional snow ended early morning
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs today	Quiet

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, monitor the Paria corridor and broader Flood Watch areas for slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff through this afternoon. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county, watch the FFWs expire, and stay ready for the residual flood window before it shifts east overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks show the western trough shifting east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. Isolated elevated storms possible further east Tuesday, but no severe areas currently indicated for tomorrow. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: hurricane tropical storm, power outage near me (Isaias residual), Rachel remnants / Southwest flood. Trends partially reachable; residual from the recent systems, not a new hotspot spike.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings, including Paria FFWs), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:44 PM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 130100Z–131200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: organized severe weather is not expected tonight. A few strong storms possible in central Kansas early this evening (weak buoyancy, late timing) and elevated convection over the lower Great Lakes (isolated small hail); no severe threat. Unchanged from morning desk and 1300 UTC. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero LSRs for the October 12 window.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from Tropical Storm Rachel under the western trough. Category unchanged.
Flash Flood Warnings and broader Flood Watches for the Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) and related areas expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in slot canyons, burn scars, and downstream. Mid-Atlantic residual remains closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole tropical influence, tracked by WPC as flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico (near Cabo Corrientes) with Hurricane Warning on offshore waters only; no U.S. land threat.
SPC Day 2 Outlook (1730 UTC) places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for Tuesday afternoon into night.

Live Status

As of late Monday evening, October 12, 2026 (~9:14 PM PDT), the national desk remains Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Zero local storm reports received today.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible into the evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Paria products have expired; residual runoff possible as water moves through the system.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence. Hurricane Simon stays well clear of the U.S. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains, non-severe.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible into the evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual over western AZ terrain; winding down overnight.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — FFW and Flood Watch expired. Residual slot canyon and Lees Ferry risk as the confirmed flood wave moves downstream.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible over the Upper Great Lakes or near the KS cold front, but no severe threat. Residual minor river flooding in the Carolinas and LA/TX remains non-severe.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window. The organized severe work from Sunday is closed. The live residual work was the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture, which has passed the gauge and is moving through the system. Flood products expired this afternoon.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO	Residual live from Rachel; threat into evening then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Residual flash flood, slot canyons, Lees Ferry	FFW and Flood Watches expired	Wave passed; residual downstream; products closed
Mid-Atlantic residual	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Carolinas / LA-TX rivers	Minor river flooding residual	Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe	Receding from prior rains
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs today	Quiet

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, residual slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff risk continues through this evening before the pattern shifts east. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county and stay ready for the residual flood window before it ends overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

The western trough shifts east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook (1730 UTC, updated 11:58 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 131200Z–141200Z) carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night (large hail and damaging winds possible; isolated tornado near the triple point). Isolated elevated storms possible further east. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: “hurricane tropical storm”, “power outage near me” (tied to recent Isaias residual and cleanup). Trends data limited this run; residual queries only.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC / 12:35 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121200Z–131200Z, and subsequent updates including 0100 UTC) holds NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. Dropped from the prior Marginal residual on Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest. No convective watches valid. Zero LSRs for the period.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from dissipated Tropical Storm Rachel. Unchanged category.
Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion, Forsyth burn scar, Paria corridor) expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in burn scars and slot canyons. Mid-Atlantic residual closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture tracked only as WPC flood residual. Hurricane Simon (Eastern Pacific) offshore Mexico, no U.S. land threat. Quiet Pulse holds.

Live Status

As of the Monday morning desk, October 12, 2026, the national picture is Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists no severe thunderstorm probability areas and no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Isolated thunderstorms possible near a cold front across the Great Lakes or in the Intermountain West under southwest flow, but no severe threat forecast. Zero local storm reports.

WPC Day 1 ERO holds the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest Arizona, Wasatch and canyon areas of Utah). Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible through the day into evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons keep flash-flood potential elevated even after warnings expired. Pattern expected to shift east after Monday night.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole residual tropical influence, tracked by WPC. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains; non-severe. High wind products in the Intermountain West are non-severe.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southwest / Great Basin (W/C AZ, NW AZ, SW UT, Wasatch)	Heavy rain, flash flood, burn-scar/slot-canyon runoff	WPC Slight ERO	Residual live from Rachel; threat through day then shifts east
Paria River corridor (Coconino AZ / Kane UT)	Residual flash flood, slot canyons	FFW and Flood Watches expired	Wave passed; residual downstream possible
Mid-Atlantic residual / eastern NC-SE VA	None	SPC none; WPC none	Closed overnight; remains closed
Carolinas rivers	Minor river flooding residual	Flood Warnings ongoing non-severe	Receding from prior rains
CONUS severe watches / Day 1 outlook	None	SPC: no severe areas; no watches; 0 LSRs	Quiet

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hubs (residual): Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest under leftover shear and moisture.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has dissipated. Its surface low elongated into a trough over West Virginia and was absorbed. Residual rainfall of 1 to 3 inches remains possible overnight across portions of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic under a WPC Marginal Risk, but the heavy rain threat is decreasing. Earlier overnight totals of several inches produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina; residual Flood Warnings persist in some elevated areas.

In the Southwest and Great Basin, residual moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel supports a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The highest residual risk is across western Arizona, with a broader Slight covering northwest Arizona into portions of the Great Basin. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar in southern Utah, where thunderstorms have produced heavy rain and observed flash flooding with considerable damage threat. Vulnerable locations include burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and urban areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada.

No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood: Primary live residual under WPC Slight Risk from Rachel remnants. Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion National Park, Forsyth burn scar) with observed flooding and considerable damage threat. Highest residual risk western Arizona into Great Basin. Burn scars, canyons, and urban areas remain vulnerable.

Mid-Atlantic residual severe and flood: Organized window closed after Tornado Watch 681 expired. Multiple preliminary tornadoes in central and eastern North Carolina under survey (Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville, Raleigh area). Residual Marginal Risk near the coast this evening. WPC Marginal residual rain possible overnight.

Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual: Decreasing flood risk as Isaias dissipated. Significant overnight rainfall already produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina. Residual Marginal Risk overnight.

Just Hit

Sunday afternoon tornadoes across central and eastern North Carolina, including observed near Atkinson (Pender County), preliminary or confirmed near Candor (Montgomery — building destroyed), Clarendon (Columbus — structures destroyed), Fayetteville area (Cumberland), Jordan Lake (Chatham), and near Raleigh/Clayton. NWS surveys ongoing. Residual Flash Flood Warnings active in southern Utah from Rachel moisture. Power outages from earlier Isaias impacts continue, with Florida and Alabama still seeing the largest numbers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Rising queries tied to today’s residual: “power outage near me” (driven by residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast), “tornado near me” / North Carolina tornado reports, residual flood and flash flood queries for the Southwest and Utah burn scars. Trends data partial this run.

Restoration Read

Coastal wind and surge work from the Friday night Destin landfall remains closed. Immediate residual tickets are inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance from Isaias rain in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, plus survey of the afternoon North Carolina tornadoes. On the West Coast, residual flash flooding under the Rachel Slight Risk, especially burn scars and canyons in southern Utah and western Arizona. Distinguish residual Appalachian work from Southwest residual. Power outage restoration continues across the Southeast.

What This Is Not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. The organized hazards were the earlier SPC Slight Risk and now-expired Tornado Watch 681 in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia (with multiple tornado reports), and the WPC Slight (Moderate dropped) excessive-rainfall risk in the Great Basin and Southwest from Rachel remnants. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warning has been issued for U.S. land this run.

Looking Ahead

Isaias remnants are fully dissipated. SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast for Monday. Rachel remnants will continue residual heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the Southwest before further dissipation. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Mid-Atlantic tornado reports and any further contraction of the Southwest flood products.

Sources and How to Verify

Primary sources, dated Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 12, Marginal Risk Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest) and Current Watches (no watches currently valid; most recently #681); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Slight Risk Great Basin and Southwest, updated 0056 UTC); NHC final products for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias and Remnants of Rachel. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link this desk and the morning desk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning

Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

Live Status

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA	Isolated residual tornado, residual flood	SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)	Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)	Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds	WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT	Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual	Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual	Dissipated	Post-tropical dissipated	Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Water still owns the Southwest. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Four Corners country, after overnight flash-flood warnings from southwestern Utah and Mohave County, Arizona, through the Laughlin–Kingman corridor. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Arizona and New Mexico into west Texas. No SPC watches or mesoscale discussions were in effect as of mid-morning UTC.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Hurricane Polo is crossing the Gulf of California into Sonora and is forecast to weaken over the mountains of northern Mexico. Its mid-level remnant is the moisture and shear that keep the Southwest wet and give west Texas a localized tornado and damaging-gust window this afternoon and evening. Restoration exposure today is interior water on already-saturated soils, wash and burn-scar flooding, trees and service drops on isolated severe gusts, and a narrow tornado swath if a cell organizes over eastern New Mexico or the South Plains. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Warnings on the northern Plains have expired. The live national products this morning are the SPC Marginal Risk from southeast Arizona through southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook with a Moderate Risk still parked on the Southwest.

A mid/upper-level low and trough are moving across the Desert Southwest. Polo’s remnant mid-level circulation is expected to phase with that trough, helping a surface low consolidate over eastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight. Widespread convection is already ongoing on that moisture axis and is expected to continue through the afternoon and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates from the tropical remnant will cap how severe the storms get, but increasing deep-layer shear and a strengthening low-level jet later today leave room for organized linear segments and a few episodic supercells.

Hotspot 1 — Four Corners / Southwest flood pulse

This is the water desk. WPC language still supports a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over parts of Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and adjacent high country, with a predecessor rainfall event still working off tropical moisture. Antecedent soils are wet. Burn scars, slot canyons, and south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans remain the first failures. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings covered Hildale and the Short Creek watershed in southwestern Utah, Colorado City and northern Mohave County, the Laughlin–Kingman–Bullhead City corridor, and pieces of San Bernardino and Clark counties. A separate overnight Flash Flood Warning hit the Fargo–Moorhead metro with up to two inches already down and additional rain possible.

Cities and counties to watch: Kingman, Bullhead City, Laughlin, Colorado City, Hildale, Flagstaff and Mogollon Rim drainages, the Lordsburg and Sacramento Mountains country in New Mexico, and saturated drainages in southern Utah. Fargo and Moorhead are yesterday-into-this-morning water, not the Moderate Risk core.

Restoration read: extraction and drying first. Treat burn-scar and wash flooding as a same-night water job if rain is still falling on the same ZIP. Photograph only if it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Arizona through eastern New Mexico into west Texas

This is the SPC Marginal. Isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two are the official Day 1 language for this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, with southeast Arizona included on the same corridor. Population centers inside the risk area include El Paso, Tucson, Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, Odessa, and Roswell. Storm mode should trend complex or linear as coverage increases, with a few supercells possible when shear and the low-level jet increase later today.

NWS South Plains and Panhandle hazardous-weather outlooks this morning already flag multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms, flash-flood potential where cells train, wind gusts up to about 70 mph, and a brief tornado or two. Flood Watches are in play on parts of the southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains.

Restoration read: wind and water on the same ticket. Stage tarps and extractors for the South Plains and Permian Basin before late afternoon. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event.

Hotspot 3 — Northern Plains leftover and Dakotas flood slight

Monday evening’s Marginal Risk over the western and central Dakotas and central High Plains has expired. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from that window include a 77 mph gust near Kenel and a 71 mph gust near Pollock in Campbell County, South Dakota, plus 1.00-inch hail north of Belle Fourche. Those are just-hit wind and hail tickets, not a live watch.

WPC still carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota, with a Marginal Risk from northern South Dakota through North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. That is training showers on a southerly low-level jet, not a severe-watch corridor.

Just hit

Overnight and yesterday evening: flash flooding on the Arizona–Utah–Nevada border country and in the Fargo–Moorhead area; power lines down near New Kingman-Butler in Mohave County; severe gusts in Campbell County, South Dakota. Monday afternoon’s desk already had the Southwest water story in view. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is more Four Corners flooding plus the west Texas–eastern New Mexico Marginal window this afternoon and tonight.

Hurricane Polo is not a U.S. landfall. Tropical Storms Fay and Hanna are well out in the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Rachel is offshore of southwestern Mexico. None of those systems is a mainland U.S. hurricane threat this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Four Corners / SW AZ–UT–NM	Flash flood, burn-scar and wash flooding	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live flood pulse; overnight FFWs expired or rolling
SE Arizona / E New Mexico / west Texas	Damaging gusts, brief tornado possible, heavy rain	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–tonight window; no watch yet
SW Texas Panhandle / South Plains	Training rain, isolated severe	Flood Watch + local HWO	Today into tonight
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota	Training heavy rain	WPC Slight / Marginal ERO	Showers; Fargo–Moorhead just-hit water
Western/central Dakotas (overnight)	Severe gusts, small hail	Expired Marginal + LSRs	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo weakening over Sonora	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

The Southwest Moderate Risk is wet drywall, silt in structures near washes, and a 24–48 hour mold clock on buildings that took water overnight. West Texas and eastern New Mexico are a wind-first desk if storms organize, with water on the same ZIPs if cells train. Dakotas gusts from last evening are already a roof-and-siding ticket in the counties that verified.

For teams near the SPC Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown remains the flood rule on every wash in the Moderate Risk.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is a Mexico landfall whose remnant moisture is already inside the Southwest forecast. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded wash in Mohave or Washington County, a wind swath through a west Texas or eastern New Mexico county, leftover urban water in Fargo. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Wednesday’s SPC Day 2 outlook already draws a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains, with damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two from west-central Texas into southwest Oklahoma as the upper low and dryline organize. Thursday stays Marginal over parts of the southern Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Guyer/Bentley); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 28–29 September; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Hurley/Wegman update and prior Campbell/Pereira discussion); National Weather Service warning text via the national watches/warnings feed; National Hurricane Center public advisory language on Hurricane Polo over the Gulf of California into Sonora.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday, September 28 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 29, 2026

Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning)

Map of Arizona, southern Nevada, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico marked for Monday's moderate flood risk — Monday morning desk. Moderate flood on the Southwest and Four Corners. Not an NWS warning.

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners as tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys lifts north into already wet ground.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is still a major hurricane approaching Baja California Sur and Sonora. Restoration exposure today is water first in the Southwest, then isolated wind and hail cleanup from last night’s High Plains and north Texas cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC language at 0728 AM CDT: severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday. Isolated to scattered storms are still expected later over the northern High Plains from western Nebraska into the Dakotas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Those corridors do not carry unconditional severe probabilities on this outlook. The last issued convective watch was number 0674; nothing is live now.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, issued 0812 UTC Monday and valid 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, is the headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. Guidance supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the region, with south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans favored. Precipitable water is forecast 2 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal. Burn scars, rocky soils, and slot canyons locally raise the flood threat. The Moderate outline forks farther south in New Mexico toward the Lordsburg area and the Sacramento Mountains.

A weakening cyclone near the southern New England coast still supports showers and occasional embedded thunder along the coast. Instability is weak. That is leftover nor’easter weather, not a new severe corridor.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

This is today’s organized desk. Moisture from Polo and post-tropical Odalys is being drawn north ahead of a mid-level trough moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. Widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates should keep most storms disorganized, but rainfall rates on saturated soils do not need a supercell to fail a crossing.

Counties and terrain to watch: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys that take runoff from steep slopes. WPC notes the Moderate continues into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans before the afternoon cores. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

Hotspot 2 — Northern High Plains isolated storms

SPC keeps general thunderstorms from western Nebraska north into North Dakota. A surface trough and modest 500–1500 J/kg CAPE later this afternoon could support isolated stronger cells. Uncertainty on location and intensity is why severe probabilities stayed off the map. A southerly low-level jet may keep elevated storms going tonight.

That is the same family that produced last night’s Cherry County hail. Staff it as isolated hail and outflow, not a watch day.

Hotspot 3 — Leftover Northeast coast and north Texas cleanup

The coastal cyclone continues to weaken near southern New England. Showers and occasional thunder remain possible near the coast. Sunday’s High Wind Warnings on the Jersey Shore and Long Island are already off the morning board from yesterday’s afternoon desk. Treat remaining coastal work as leftover water and beach debris, not a new wind outbreak.

North Texas had a short severe pulse last evening over Parker County. That is a just-hit ticket, not today’s outlook.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Sunday to 1159 UTC Monday window, all preliminary:

2216 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
2330 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
0032 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
2300 UTC — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
2320 UTC — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down and outdoor items blown around on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

No tornado reports were received in that window. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that fired Sunday evening over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southwest / Four Corners	Flash flood, training heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Live outlook through Tuesday 12Z
SE CA / southern NV / western AZ	Numerous showers and storms, isolated wet downburst	General thunder; no severe probs	Today into evening
Western NE into the Dakotas	Isolated strong storms, hail or gust possible	General thunder; no severe probs	Late afternoon–overnight
Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TX	Quarter hail, tree limbs	Expired SVR / LSRs	Just-hit cleanup
Southern New England coast	Showers, leftover coastal water	Weak cyclone; no severe area	Fading
Polo / Odalys	Mexico land and moisture feed, not CONUS landfall	NHC Polo major hurricane near Baja	Moisture into the Southwest

What this means for restoration teams

The national severe map is blank. That does not mean a quiet shop in Arizona, New Mexico, southwest Colorado, or southern Nevada. Moderate excessive-rainfall language on already wet soils is extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock in finished space. Burn-scar fans fail first. Stage before the afternoon moisture surge, not after the first flash-flood warning.

Cherry County and Willow Park are yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe. Sully County’s 66 mph mesonet gust and the Sutton County 60 mph gust are isolated wind, not a line.

Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

WPC keeps Moderate excessive-rainfall language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains, then into the southern Plains midweek. SPC’s next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the blank severe map lasts past sunset.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid); SPC local storm reports for 27/1200 UTC–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0812 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center advisories on Hurricane Polo and post-tropical Odalys; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon Quiet Pulse, Northeast flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 28, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal — Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast corridor carried the pulse — NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings for southern and north-central West Virginia into southwest Virginia. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired/expiring into this morning (no active WV flash-flood warnings on the NWS alert feed at hang time). Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, plus a portion of the Southeast; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of southern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in southern New Mexico and far west Texas, wind and marginally severe hail this afternoon across the Utah corridor, leftover Appalachian water from Monday night, and locally severe gusts plus flood axes across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 221300Z–231200Z) places a Marginal Risk over much of Utah into adjacent Wyoming and Colorado, and across a portion of the Southeast. Summary: isolated severe wind gusts today in Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado; thunderstorms capable of strong to locally severe damaging gusts also possible across parts of the Southeast. Outlook footprint ~196,000 square miles / ~24 million people. Larger Southeast centers in the risk area include Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery.

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Tue–12Z Wed) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of southern New Mexico, with flood watches from noon MDT today through Wednesday afternoon/evening for large parts of New Mexico and far west Texas (NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa). WPC Slight axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina, and West Virginia into southwest Virginia. South Florida: WPC Marginal for localized urban flash flood.

Hotspot 1 — Southern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk. Multi-day heavy rain starts today under an upper trough, jet right-entrance dynamics, deep southerly tropical moisture, and precipitable water toward mid/late September record levels. Daytime favors scattered storms; overnight trends toward a more concentrated rain shield with heavier cores over southern New Mexico. Ensemble neighborhood guidance: 40–70% chance of more than 3 inches across New Mexico today; 2–4 inch max footprint through early Wednesday. Scattered to numerous flash floods expected, some locally significant, including Sacramento Mountains burn scars.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the overnight shield organizes. Burn-scar runoff and low water crossings fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside.

Hotspot 2 — Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado

SPC Marginal wind-and-hail corridor. Mid-level trough over the western Great Basin moves northeast across Utah through early evening. After early showers, heating steepens 0–2 km lapse rates; elongated hodographs support a few stronger cells with marginally severe hail. Isolated 60–75 mph gusts are the primary hazard. Activity can later spill into western Colorado and southwest Wyoming late afternoon into early evening.

Restoration read: wind and isolated hail. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before late afternoon. Soft-metal roofs and skylights after stronger cells only if it is safe.

Hotspot 3 — Southeast / southern Appalachians, plus Mid-Atlantic flood axes

SPC Marginal for the Southeast focuses on a slow-moving cold front from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians. Dewpoints upper 60s–lower 70s °F; afternoon MLCAPE about 1,500–2,500 J/kg. Weak shear; water-loaded downdrafts can produce locally severe gusts into early evening.

WPC Slight flood axes: southeast Virginia into South Carolina (coastal convergence + backdoor front; neighborhood high for 3 inches, localized 5 inches possible) and West Virginia into southwest Virginia (wetter soils, lower flash-flood guidance, inverted trough). Farther north Mid-Atlantic: more stratiform 1–2 inches. South Florida WPC Marginal is a local urban-flood desk, not the national headline.

Restoration read: gusty wind and street flooding can share the same ZIP. Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Birmingham, and Montgomery sit inside the broader Southeast convective risk — local pulse desks, not a regional derecho.

Just hit

Monday afternoon into overnight, the Appalachians–Southeast carried the live severe and flash-flood pulse (already on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk). Overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings covered southern West Virginia / southwest Virginia (Welch, Pineville, Davy, McDowell, Wyoming, Buchanan; 1–3 inches radar-indicated) and north-central West Virginia along Buckhannon–Burnsville–Century / I-79 (1–3 inches). Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. No clean parsed SPC LSR list in this pass — do not invent points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Southern NM / far west TX	Flash flood, multi-day heavy rain, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate + flood watches	Live flood desk today–Wed
Utah into SW WY / western CO	Severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
Southeast / southern Appalachians	Locally severe damaging gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–early evening
SE VA into SC; WV into SW VA	Flash flood / heavy rain	WPC Slight	Today into tonight
South Florida	Urban flash flood, lightning	WPC Marginal	Local
Appalachians–Southeast overnight	Flash flood (yesterday’s pulse)	Overnight FFWs (expired/expiring)	Aftermath / drying
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet for mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Southern New Mexico and far west Texas are water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Utah’s Marginal corridor is wind and isolated hail. Southeast Marginal wind is local gusty warnings, not a derecho. Leftover Appalachian water from Monday night is aftermath. Stage before the overnight New Mexico rain shield; start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Depression Fay is mid-Atlantic open ocean and becoming post-tropical — not a U.S. land threat. Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys remain eastern Pacific systems and are not mainland landfall threats today. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: southern New Mexico flash flood, Utah–Colorado wind/hail, Southeast gusts, leftover Appalachian water.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel tonight’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s Marginal corridors. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:22 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 11:44:05 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0809 UTC Tuesday, September 22, 2026 (Chenard); NWS Albuquerque and El Paso/Santa Teresa flood watches; overnight NWS Charleston, West Virginia flash-flood warnings; NHC advisories (Fay, Polo, Odalys).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 21, 2026 — Appalachians–Southeast Marginal / Central Appalachians Flood Slight.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 22, 2026