Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

• SPC 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0746 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 121300Z–131200Z) remains NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: no severe weather forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. No change from the morning desk. No convective watches valid. SPC today’s storm reports (1200 UTC Oct 12 onward) show zero tornado, hail, or wind reports.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0748 UTC / 3:48 AM EDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 12Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin & Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel continues the threat into this afternoon and evening before the pattern shifts east. No change in category from morning.
• Flash Flood Warnings for the Paria River corridor (Coconino County, AZ / south-central Kane County, UT) remain in effect this morning. NWS Flagstaff and Salt Lake City report a confirmed flood wave (gauge rise ~3 feet, flow to 2200 CFS). Life-threatening flash flooding of slot canyons, dry washes, and the Colorado River confluence near Lees Ferry. Warnings expire late morning (around 11 AM MDT / 10 AM PDT). Flood Watches continue for western/northern AZ and much of Utah through this afternoon.
• Winter Storm Warnings for elevated terrain in central and north-central Montana have expired. No new organized severe windows. Mid-Atlantic residual closed overnight remains closed.

Live Status

As of Monday afternoon, October 12, 2026 (~9:30 AM PDT / 12:30 PM EDT), the national desk stays in Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. The organized severe window from Isaias remnants closed overnight and has not reopened.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture under the deep western trough supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate the flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover the Paria River flood wave this morning; the highest residual risk remains over western AZ terrain and southern UT canyons.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence, tracked solely by WPC as a flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible this afternoon into evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual western AZ terrain.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — Active Flash Flood Warnings this morning for the confirmed flood wave. Slot canyons, dry washes, Lees Ferry confluence. Window closing late morning; Flood Watches continue broader area through afternoon.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible Dakotas into Upper Midwest (small hail possible with strongest) and Intermountain West, but no severe threat. Montana winter warnings expired.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window (1200 UTC onward). The organized severe work from Sunday (NC tornadoes) is closed and under survey. The live work this morning is the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, monitor the Paria corridor and broader Flood Watch areas for slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff through this afternoon. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county, watch the FFWs expire, and stay ready for the residual flood window before it shifts east overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks show the western trough shifting east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. Isolated elevated storms possible further east Tuesday, but no severe areas currently indicated for tomorrow. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: hurricane tropical storm, power outage near me (Isaias residual), Rachel remnants / Southwest flood. Trends partially reachable; residual from the recent systems, not a new hotspot spike.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings, including Paria FFWs), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.