Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight
What Changed
- SPC Day 1 (latest 0100Z Oct 25 / 0807 PM CDT Oct 24, valid 250100Z-251200Z) now Marginal Risk for central/southern New Mexico and Far West Texas, stepped down from daytime Slight Risk. Isolated severe wind/hail and tornado remain possible this evening as instability decreases.
- Severe Thunderstorm Watch #697 remains active until 0400Z Oct 25 (9 PM MST) for central into SE NM and Far West TX. Threats: damaging winds, large hail (to 2″), isolated tornado.
- Ongoing LSRs and warnings: hail to 1.25″, winds to 75 mph reported; multiple Severe TSTM and Flash Flood Warnings in NM/TX/CO as of late Oct 24.
- WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk maintained for West TX, NM, CO (updated ~0732Z Oct 24). Flash Flood Warnings active, including considerable threats and road closures.
- No change in tropical: none for U.S. Hurricane Vance (EP) no U.S. threat. Atlantic quiet.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Details (as of ~0212Z Oct 25 / evening Oct 24 PDT) |
|---|---|---|
| Severe | Marginal | SPC latest Day 1 Marginal NM/Far West TX. Watch 697 live. LSRs hail 1″+ / winds 60-75 mph (Oct 24). |
| Flood | Slight | WPC Day 1 Slight ERO. Active Flash Flood Warnings NM (Lincoln, Cibola etc.), TX, CO. I-40 impacts reported. |
| Tropical | None | No U.S. watches/warnings. Vance EP ~90 mph south of Mexico. Atlantic no cyclones. |
Official Outlooks
SPC Day 1 latest (SPC AC 250107, 0807 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026): THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible this evening. Storms continue but buoyancy weakening with nocturnal cooling; threat increasingly sporadic overnight.
Earlier 1300Z outlook had Slight Risk for afternoon/evening. Watch 697 issued 155 PM MST covering the core. MD 2408 confirmed ongoing hail >1″ and 60-70 mph gusts into evening.
WPC Day 1 ERO (Dolan, ~0732Z Oct 24, valid 12Z Oct 24-12Z Oct 25): SLIGHT RISK of excessive rainfall for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. 1.5-3″ possible, rates challenging flash flood guidance, especially on wet soils. Marginal elsewhere including Four Corners and SE Florida.
NWS: Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings (observed flooding, considerable threats in places like Lincoln NM, Cibola with I-40 closed). SPC storm reports Oct 24: 1″ hail Canutillo TX / White Sands / Lincoln NM; winds 58-75 mph in Dona Ana / Otero NM.
NHC: No tropical cyclones in Atlantic. Hurricane Vance Eastern Pacific holding ~90 mph, well south of Mexico, no U.S. impact. No TS/H watches for U.S. coast or Gulf.
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