Tag: Colorado

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Moderate Flood — Nov 1

    Storm Updates: Southwest Moderate Flood — Nov 1

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 31 afternoon pulse (quiet-pulse-2026-10-31-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC November 2 / 6:41 PM CST November 1, 2026, valid 020100Z–021200Z) has opened a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Threat of severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes this evening into the overnight. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already issued for portions of central New Mexico including the Albuquerque area.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (discussion 733 PM EST November 1, valid 01Z November 2–12Z November 2) holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners region, including high-end Moderate across the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains, with widespread Moderate through canyon areas of northwest Arizona into southwestern Utah. Upgrade from the prior Slight. Atmospheric river / pineapple express on saturated soils. Active Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona (Tucson, Flagstaff, Paria River, etc.).
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook (700 PM EST November 1) states tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No named tropical cyclones. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
    • Flood Watches remain widespread across Arizona, portions of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida (Treasure Coast / Palm Beaches). Residual river and flash flooding impacts continue on already saturated Southwest soils from recent multi-week wet pattern.
    • Severe lane opened to Slight and Flood upgraded to Moderate. Dominant ticket is the Moderate excessive rainfall and live flash flooding across the Four Corners / Arizona. Severe wind and tornado potential secondary but live in New Mexico this evening.

    Live Status

    As of the afternoon desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 7:14 PM PDT / 03:14 UTC November 2), the national picture centers on the Southwest. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook confirms a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Water vapor shows a mid-level trough with strong southwesterly flow; storms developing in higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and a line expected to organize and move east-northeastward. Surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F support moderate instability. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m²/s² supports tornado potential with embedded supercells. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Mesoscale Discussion 2424 noted. No watches currently listed as valid in the latest public products reviewed, but warnings are live.

    The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners. An anomalously strong atmospheric river is driving highly anomalous moisture (PWATs 4-6 sigma above normal) into the Southwest on already saturated soils from a multi-week wet period. High-end Moderate across the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains; widespread Moderate into canyon areas of northwest Arizona into southwestern Utah. Neighborhood probabilities for locally 5 inches or greater remain elevated. Dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars are most susceptible. Flash Flood Warnings active and extended in multiple Arizona counties, including life-threatening flooding on the Paria River and urban/stream flooding near Tucson and Flagstaff. Flood Watches cover large portions of Arizona and adjacent states through early Monday.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners / central and northern Arizona (flood primary): Moderate Risk excessive rainfall with active Flash Flood Warnings. Atmospheric river producing heavy rain rates on saturated ground. Impacts to creeks, washes, urban areas, and low-water crossings. Evacuations reported in areas such as Sedona / Oak Creek. Restoration exposure is water extraction, drying, and infrastructure from runoff.

    New Mexico into Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (severe): Slight Risk for severe wind and isolated tornadoes this evening through overnight. Line of storms organizing and moving east-northeast. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already covering Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with 60 mph gust potential. Possible 70+ mph gusts and line-embedded tornadoes farther east.

    East-central Florida (residual flood): Flood Watch in effect for Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday afternoon. Widespread 1-3 inches possible, isolated 5-7 inches where bands train. Saturated soils from recent rain. Slight Risk residual on WPC for portions of the Florida Peninsula.

    Just-Hit

    Multiple Flash Flood Warnings active or recently extended across Arizona (Tucson area, Flagstaff / Paria River, Graham/Greenlee, etc.) with radar and gauge indications of 1-2 inches already fallen and additional runoff on saturated soils. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Bernalillo, Santa Fe, and adjacent counties in central New Mexico with 60 mph wind gusts indicated by radar. Residual Flood Warnings and watches from prior rainfall continue in the Southwest. Florida coastal and inland flood concerns building with the ongoing disturbance.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~7:14 PM PDT / 03:14 UTC Nov 2 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 Slight Risk New Mexico into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe wind gusts and few tornadoes expected evening into overnight. Active SVR warnings in NM. No watches listed in latest products reviewed.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Four Corners (Mogollon Rim, San Juans, NW AZ into SW UT). Active FFWs in AZ. Flood Watches widespread Southwest and FL. Atmospheric river on saturated soils.

    Restoration Read

    Primary ticket is water across Arizona and the Four Corners. Stage for flash flooding, stream rises, and urban ponding on already wet ground. Secondary is wind damage (roofs, siding, trees, power) from the New Mexico severe line this evening into the Panhandles overnight. No tropical restoration file. Florida residual water possible but lower priority than the Southwest Moderate.

    What This Is Not

    Not a named tropical cyclone landfall or coastal surge event. Not an Enhanced or higher severe risk. Not a High excessive rainfall risk (Moderate is the top open lane). Not a quiet day.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe risk areas for Monday. WPC Day 2 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the east coast of Florida. Southwest flood threat should wind down as the atmospheric river shifts, but residual sensitivity remains on saturated soils. Monitor local NWS for lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    flood watch, flash flood warning, atmospheric river Arizona, Four Corners flooding, New Mexico thunderstorms.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 2), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 733 PM EST November 1), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet). Previous desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-31-afternoon. No morning desk published for November 1.

    Disclaimer: This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. This desk does not issue warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Flood & NM Severe — Nov 1

    Storm Updates: Southwest Flood & NM Severe — Nov 1

    As of the afternoon desk on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC November 2), the national picture centers on the Southwest. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0641 PM CST November 1, valid 020100Z–021200Z) carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (issued 0027Z November 2, valid 0100Z–1200Z November 2) maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Four Corners region. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-01-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate): SPC Day 1 (0100 UTC November 2 cycle) holds the Slight Risk. Storms have developed in north-central New Mexico and are organizing into a line expected to move east-northeast into the Panhandles this evening into overnight, with severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 remains in effect for portions of New Mexico.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO continues the Moderate Risk covering approximately 64,281 square miles and 3.7 million people on already saturated soils. Multiple Flash Flood Warnings remain active across Arizona.
    • Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued for portions of central New Mexico, including the Albuquerque metro area. Mesoscale Discussion 2424 addresses severe potential with a watch likely in the High Plains corridor.
    • Tropical lane remains None. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones and formation is not expected during the next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    • Risk levels unchanged from morning, but the severe threat is now actively unfolding. Dominant restoration ticket remains the Moderate excessive rainfall and flash flooding on saturated soils across the Southwest, compounded by the active severe wind and tornado threat in New Mexico and the Panhandles.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 lists a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (area approximately 61,898 square miles, population approximately 673,000). Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight. Storms have developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico and will move east-northeastward. A band of strong storms is expected over central New Mexico, organizing into a line moving into the Texas Panhandle. Faster bowing segments may produce gusts above 70 mph. Supercells possible within the line; Amarillo VWP shows 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m²/s², supporting tornado potential (see MCD 2424). The threat is expected to persist into the overnight into northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas with isolated severe gusts.

    WPC Day 1 ERO places a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall covering 64,281 square miles and 3,656,961 people. A high-end Moderate remains in effect for portions of the Mogollon Rim and San Juan Mountains. An anomalously strong atmospheric river is driving highly anomalous moisture into the Southwest on already saturated soils. Widespread 3-5 inches of rain are expected in core areas, with efficient runoff converting nearly all rainfall to flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, and burn scars. Flood Watches remain widespread. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in Arizona, including the Paria River in Coconino County (considerable threat) and the Tucson metro area.

    Hotspots

    • Southwest / Four Corners (Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado): Primary focus under WPC Moderate Risk. Saturated soils from multi-week wet period. Active Flash Flood Warnings in northern and southeastern Arizona (Paria River/Lees Ferry with rapid rise reported, Tucson area, Graham and Greenlee counties). Expect life-threatening flash flooding of dry washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban areas, and burn scars. Heavy rain rates capable of producing considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim and San Juans.
    • Southern High Plains / eastern New Mexico into Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles: SPC Slight Risk. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for New Mexico. Line of storms developing across central and eastern New Mexico, moving east-northeast into the Panhandles overnight. Primary threats: damaging wind gusts (isolated above 70 mph possible) and a few line-embedded tornadoes. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings already issued for central New Mexico including Albuquerque metro.
    • East coast of Florida: Residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Flood Watch in effect for parts of the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County through Monday afternoon. Additional rain continues into Monday on saturated soils. No organized severe threat.

    Just-Hit

    Heavy rainfall from the atmospheric river continued into Sunday afternoon and evening, producing and extending Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona, including a rapid rise on the Paria River and persistent threats in the Tucson area. Severe thunderstorms developed in central New Mexico by late afternoon, prompting Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the Albuquerque metro and surrounding counties with radar-indicated 60 mph wind gusts. Preliminary local storm reports include 60 mph gusts in Clark County, Nevada, earlier in the convective day. No widespread tornado reports logged yet, but the threat is increasing as the line organizes and moves east.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~8:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC Nov 2 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: formation not expected next 7 days. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 2): SLIGHT RISK NM into TX/OK Panhandles. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699 active for NM. Damaging winds primary, few tornadoes possible with line. Storms developing; MCD 2424.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 ERO Moderate Risk Four Corners (~64k sq mi, ~3.7M people). Active Flash Flood Warnings AZ. Flood Watches AZ/NM/UT/CO and residual FL. Saturated soils from recent events.

    Restoration Read

    Moderate flood lane remains the primary driver on already saturated soils across the Southwest and Four Corners. Expect flash flooding of washes, arroyos, slot canyons, urban corridors, and burn scars, with potential for considerable impacts in core areas of the Mogollon Rim. Active severe threat in New Mexico and the High Plains brings risk of damaging winds (isolated 70+ mph) and a few tornadoes with the evening and overnight line of storms. Florida residual flash flood risk under Slight ERO. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, high water on roads, roof/siding/tree damage from winds, and residual coastal flooding. Turn around, don’t drown. No tropical component.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and WPC Moderate Risk are both open. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Monday: SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Slight Risk shifting eastward across North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and into Missouri for late Monday afternoon into evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. WPC Day 2 holds residual Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the east coast of Florida. Southwest flood threat begins to wind down as the moisture plume moves through, but residual runoff on saturated soils continues into Monday. No tropical development expected.

    Rising Queries

    Rising queries tied to the Southwest flood and New Mexico severe hotspot include “flood watch,” “flash flood warning,” and related searches for Arizona and New Mexico flooding.

    Sources

    Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 24

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 24

    As of this Saturday evening update to the afternoon desk, October 24, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT / 0414Z October 25), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated severe wind, hail, and a tornado remain possible this evening as storms continue but instability decreases with nocturnal cooling. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 is valid until 0400Z October 25 (9 PM PDT). The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-24-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 25 / 8:07 PM CDT Saturday, October 24, 2026, valid 250100Z–251200Z) confirms a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible this evening; the environment is becoming less conducive with nocturnal cooling.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 (issued ~2055Z October 24 for NM TX) remains valid until 0400Z October 25. Status reports indicate the severe weather threat continues in portions of central/southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Primary residual threats are isolated large hail and severe gusts as storms congeal.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0102 UTC Sunday October 25, valid 01Z–12Z Oct 25) holds a SLIGHT RISK for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado into far western Kansas. Highest totals 1.5–3 inches possible. No Moderate or above. Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in El Paso/Hudspeth County TX and Bernalillo/Santa Fe area NM on saturated soils.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Eastern Pacific hurricane activity (Vance) is well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane holds at Slight. Quiet Pulse criteria met. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff in New Mexico and far west Texas.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Southwest this evening. The most intense cells are across Far West Texas north into central New Mexico, where radar suggests large hail and severe gusts remain possible. The 00 UTC Albuquerque sounding showed MUCAPE around 900 J/kg that is peaking and will weaken with low-level stabilization. Congealing storms and decreasing buoyancy lead to an increasingly sporadic severe threat overnight.

    Watch 697 covers the core area in NM and TX until 9 PM PDT. Local NWS offices continue Flash Flood Warnings in southeastern El Paso County and western Hudspeth County TX (until ~1:30 AM MDT in some segments) and in Bernalillo, northwestern Torrance, and southwestern Santa Fe Counties NM (until ~11:15 PM MDT), with observed heavy rain of 1–3 inches and road impacts including I-40 segments.

    WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1–1.5 inches per hour possible in the highest zones, capable of flash flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons, and burn scars, especially where prior rainfall has saturated soils. No Moderate or higher ERO.

    Hotspots

    • Central New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Ongoing convection with isolated hail/wind possible into the evening. Flash Flood Warnings active in sensitive terrain and urban areas on saturated soils. I-40 segments impacted.
    • Far west Texas and El Paso / Hudspeth County: Marginal severe overlap. Flash Flood Warnings for southeastern El Paso and western Hudspeth. Storms moving northeast. Urban runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
    • Southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico: WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Residual upslope and training potential. Lower severe threat. Sensitivity from earlier activity this week.

    Just-Hit

    Flash Flood Warnings remain active or recently extended in southeastern El Paso County and western Hudspeth County TX, and in Bernalillo, northwestern Torrance, and southwestern Santa Fe Counties NM. Observed rainfall 1–3 inches in spots with flash flooding of creeks, urban areas, and highways. No confirmed significant tornado reports at this desk time. Localized flooding and residual wind/hail impacts ongoing in the Southwest corridor.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 25 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Hurricane Vance (EPAC) far south of Mexico. No U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over central/southern NM and far west TX. Watch 697 until 0400Z. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening. Threat decreasing overnight.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight Risk for portions of NM, southern CO, and far west TX. 1.5–3″ possible. Active FFWs. Residual sensitivity. No Moderate or higher.

    Restoration Read

    Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk and closing Watch 697. Secondary ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (El Paso, Albuquerque), small streams, canyons, and burn scars on already saturated soils. No widespread catastrophic damage expected; threats diminish overnight.

    What This Is Not

    This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk remains on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. It is not an official warning.

    Looking Ahead

    Sunday (Day 2): SPC outlooks a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms continuing from southern/eastern New Mexico into far west Texas for isolated large hail. WPC maintains some excessive rainfall potential as the upper low progresses. The organized severe window closes overnight tonight. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Sources

    Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 25, Watch 697), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; Hurricane Vance Eastern Pacific). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-24-morning.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: New Mexico Severe — Oct 24 Morning

    Storm Updates: New Mexico Severe — Oct 24 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • SPC Day 1 (latest 0100Z Oct 25 / 0807 PM CDT Oct 24, valid 250100Z-251200Z) now Marginal Risk for central/southern New Mexico and Far West Texas, stepped down from daytime Slight Risk. Isolated severe wind/hail and tornado remain possible this evening as instability decreases.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch #697 remains active until 0400Z Oct 25 (9 PM MST) for central into SE NM and Far West TX. Threats: damaging winds, large hail (to 2″), isolated tornado.
    • Ongoing LSRs and warnings: hail to 1.25″, winds to 75 mph reported; multiple Severe TSTM and Flash Flood Warnings in NM/TX/CO as of late Oct 24.
    • WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk maintained for West TX, NM, CO (updated ~0732Z Oct 24). Flash Flood Warnings active, including considerable threats and road closures.
    • No change in tropical: none for U.S. Hurricane Vance (EP) no U.S. threat. Atlantic quiet.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusDetails (as of ~0212Z Oct 25 / evening Oct 24 PDT)
    SevereMarginalSPC latest Day 1 Marginal NM/Far West TX. Watch 697 live. LSRs hail 1″+ / winds 60-75 mph (Oct 24).
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight ERO. Active Flash Flood Warnings NM (Lincoln, Cibola etc.), TX, CO. I-40 impacts reported.
    TropicalNoneNo U.S. watches/warnings. Vance EP ~90 mph south of Mexico. Atlantic no cyclones.

    Official Outlooks

    SPC Day 1 latest (SPC AC 250107, 0807 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026): THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. Isolated severe wind/hail and a tornado remain possible this evening. Storms continue but buoyancy weakening with nocturnal cooling; threat increasingly sporadic overnight.

    Earlier 1300Z outlook had Slight Risk for afternoon/evening. Watch 697 issued 155 PM MST covering the core. MD 2408 confirmed ongoing hail >1″ and 60-70 mph gusts into evening.

    WPC Day 1 ERO (Dolan, ~0732Z Oct 24, valid 12Z Oct 24-12Z Oct 25): SLIGHT RISK of excessive rainfall for portions of West Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. 1.5-3″ possible, rates challenging flash flood guidance, especially on wet soils. Marginal elsewhere including Four Corners and SE Florida.

    NWS: Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings (observed flooding, considerable threats in places like Lincoln NM, Cibola with I-40 closed). SPC storm reports Oct 24: 1″ hail Canutillo TX / White Sands / Lincoln NM; winds 58-75 mph in Dona Ana / Otero NM.

    NHC: No tropical cyclones in Atlantic. Hurricane Vance Eastern Pacific holding ~90 mph, well south of Mexico, no U.S. impact. No TS/H watches for U.S. coast or Gulf.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Informational only — not an official warning. Check latest SPC, WPC, NWS, NHC.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-23-morning: Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas (roughly 82,400 sq mi, 2.4 million people). Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; the environment is becoming less conducive with decreasing buoyancy and nocturnal cooling.
    • No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 (most recently issued) has expired. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect. The organized severe window is closing.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0057 UTC Saturday October 24 / discussion 8:57 PM EDT Friday, valid 01Z–12Z October 24) continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Hurricane Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~110 mph, ~12.0°N 102.6°W) continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Atlantic quiet; no tropical cyclones.
    • The categorical severe lane remains at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane holds at Slight. Quiet Pulse is open.

    Live Status

    As of this Friday afternoon desk, October 23, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 24 / 0414Z October 24), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Scattered thunderstorms organized into a mix of supercells and clusters earlier, with hail and severe gusts the primary risks. The severe threat is becoming increasingly isolated as nocturnal cooling sets in. No watches are valid.

    WPC Day 1 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the same general region. Locally heavy rainfall rates remain possible in intense cells, with isolated flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. The tropical lane is closed for U.S. impact.

    Hotspots

    Central and western New Mexico / far west Texas: Marginal severe risk. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso areas included in the footprint. Isolated hail and wind possible this evening. Threat diminishing. Prior Watch 696 has expired.

    Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Marginal severe overlapping Slight excessive rainfall risk. Terrain-driven heavy rain possible. Residual flash-flood sensitivity from prior activity. Highest concern on burn scars and steep slopes.

    Far west Texas (El Paso corridor): Included in both the Marginal severe and Slight flood areas. Straight hodographs earlier favored splitting supercells with hail as the main threat. Activity winding down.

    Just-Hit

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 was active earlier today until 9 PM MDT. Special Weather Statements and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued this afternoon for strong storms producing nickel-size hail and gusts near 50–60 mph in the Albuquerque metro vicinity and other New Mexico counties. Preliminary local storm reports include hail and wind gusts, primarily outside the core NM area in adjacent states. Flash Flood Warnings active earlier in portions of New Mexico. No widespread major damage reports confirmed at this desk time; isolated hail and wind impacts likely. Prior overnight Moderate flood activity produced verified flash flooding in the Four Corners high terrain.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 24 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Hurricane Vance far south of Mexico (~110 mph). No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. Atlantic quiet.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal over portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX (~82k sq mi). Isolated hail, gusts, perhaps a tornado this evening. No watches or MDs valid. Threat diminishing.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. No Moderate or higher.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable

    Restoration Read

    Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind under the earlier Slight Risk and now-expired Watch 696. Isolated roof, vehicle and vegetation damage possible from large hail and gusts. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor for any remaining Severe Thunderstorm Warnings or Flash Flood Warnings.

    What This Is Not

    This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC as of the afternoon update. SPC holds Marginal. WPC holds Slight excessive rainfall. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Quiet Pulse is open.

    Looking Ahead

    Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. The severe threat continues to diminish overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon and evening. Residual runoff possible in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning

    Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning

    As of this Thursday morning desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:12 PM PDT / 12:12 AM EDT October 23 / 0412Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues moving away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 21 afternoon desk (quiet-pulse-2026-10-21-afternoon) and the prior version of this morning desk: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico (expanded southward into NW NM). Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Surrounding Slight Risk remains.
    • NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance remains well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch have been in effect across portions of Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) and other Four Corners drainages. Flood Watches continue regionally.
    • Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk is the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This morning desk is updated in place under the standard slug; afternoon companion already live under quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-afternoon.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and the Four Corners. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy supports robust storms into the evening (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg in favored areas) with deep-layer shear of 50–60 kt. Primary hazards are large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two, maximized from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the Great Basin.

    WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Antecedent rainfall, upslope flow and training convection support elevated flash-flood potential. Hourly rates of 0.5–1+ inches are possible; additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) expected in the Moderate area. A broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest terrain. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations. Flash Flood Warnings verified in upstream Arizona basins.

    Eastern and central Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and topography align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain in or near the risk area. Flash flooding accompanies the convection.

    Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.

    Just-Hit

    National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been in effect for portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Flash Flood Warnings are active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:12 PM PDT / 0412Z 23 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneJosephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. TS Vance far south of Mexico.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, few tornadoes. Prior Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Watch in AZ. Marginal elsewhere.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains scattered.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

    Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22

    As of this Thursday afternoon desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 23 / 0414Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico, with scattered severe storms remaining possible across the Southwest and Great Basin into the evening. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues accelerating northeastward away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.

    Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

    What Changed

    • Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-morning): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight; category unchanged.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible amid training convection and upslope flow; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Slight Risk surrounds it. Category unchanged from morning.
    • NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low (last advisory). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning remains in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and watches have been in effect across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Tornado Warnings were issued earlier for parts of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and into New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat, and other Four Corners drainages. Local storm reports continue to verify large hail and damaging winds.
    • Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk remains the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This afternoon desk updates in place under the standard slug and links the morning desk under Sources.

    Live Status

    SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy around 1000 J/kg supports robust storms into the evening, with favorable deep-layer shear (50–60 kt) for hail and severe gusts. A tornado or two remains possible, particularly from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Farther north into the Great Basin, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible under more limited buoyancy, with damaging gusts the primary hazard. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the region.

    WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Anomalous moisture, diffluent flow, and training convection continue to support flash flooding. The San Juans see the heaviest accumulations, with model consensus for 3–4 inches and localized higher. Broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest and Four Corners areas. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.

    Hotspots

    Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Flash Flood Warnings already verified in parts of Arizona that feed into the region. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations.

    Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk with active convection. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and terrain align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain influenced. Flash flooding accompanies the convection. Verifying reports of hail and wind continue.

    Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.

    Just-Hit

    National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. Tornado Warnings were issued this afternoon for portions of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and parts of New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors. No confirmed tornado damage reports received so far today. No widespread major river flooding reported.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 23 Oct 2026)
    TropicalNoneJosephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf.
    SevereSlightSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, tornado or two possible. Prior warnings and watches in AZ/NM. LSRs verifying hail/wind. Marginal elsewhere.
    FloodModerateWPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ and NM. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable.

    Restoration Read

    Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. Isolated tornado potential adds tree and structure damage risk where rotation was indicated. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.

    What This Is Not

    This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated to scattered severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains limited.

    Looking Ahead One Day

    Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 23 Morning

    Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • Compared with the October 23 afternoon desk pulse table (Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; threat becoming more isolated with nocturnal cooling.
    • Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 has expired. SPC reports no watches currently valid. The most recent was #696 for central and western New Mexico and far west Texas, which covered until 9:00 PM MDT. Primary threats were scattered large hail (isolated to 3 inches) and scattered damaging winds to 70 mph.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, far west Texas and southern Colorado (updated ~0806 UTC October 23, valid 12Z Oct 23–12Z Oct 24). Broader Marginal Risk surrounds it. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from earlier rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
    • NHC: No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Hurricane Vance remains well south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific, not threatening U.S. land. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.
    • Severe lane holds at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane unchanged at Slight. Watch 696 closed. Quiet Pulse remains open. Dominant residual restoration ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind.

    Live Status

    As of this Friday evening update to the October 23 morning desk (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 12:15 AM EDT / 0415Z October 24, with products valid through the Day 1 period ending 12Z Saturday), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The latest SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk covering roughly 82,000 square miles and about 2.4 million people, including El Paso TX, Albuquerque NM, Las Cruces NM, Santa Fe NM and Rio Rancho NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening. The environment is becoming less conducive with nocturnal cooling and decreasing buoyancy; the severe threat becomes increasingly more isolated and focused tonight.

    WPC Day 1 places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico, far west Texas and southern Colorado. Soils in southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico remain somewhat sensitive from prior heavy rainfall. Locally heavy rates of 1–1.5 inches per hour possible in intense cells, with highest totals favored in northern New Mexico where terrain focuses convection. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. Broader Marginal Risk covers much of New Mexico and southern Colorado.

    The tropical lane is closed for U.S. land impact. No named systems threaten the coast or Gulf. Hurricane Vance remains far south in the Eastern Pacific, not affecting the United States. No U.S. watches or warnings are in effect. SPC confirms no convective watches currently valid.

    Hotspots

    Central and western New Mexico and far west Texas: Residual Marginal severe threat this evening after Watch 696 expiration. Earlier supercells and clusters capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds to 70 mph. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso metros were included. Isolated tornado possible but low probability. Threat diminishing overnight.

    Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Slight excessive rainfall risk overlapping residual severe potential. Terrain-driven heavy rain rates possible; residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. Flash flood potential highest in mountains, burn scars and urban corridors near Albuquerque.

    Pulse Table

    LaneStatusNotes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 0415Z Oct 24 2026)
    TropicalNoneNo tropical cyclones in Atlantic. Hurricane Vance (EPAC) far south of Mexico, not threatening U.S. land. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings.
    SevereMarginalSPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal for NM, southern CO and far west TX. Isolated large hail, severe gusts, perhaps tornado this evening. Watch 696 expired. No watches currently valid.
    FloodSlightWPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, far west TX and southern CO. Marginal broader. Residual sensitivity from earlier rainfall. No Moderate or higher.

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable

    Restoration Read

    Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas severe under the now-expired Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696: large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor official sources for any lingering Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings.

    What This Is Not

    This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC. A Marginal severe risk covers portions of New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Slight excessive rainfall risk covers portions of the same region. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Watch 696 has expired. Quiet Pulse is open.

    Looking Ahead

    Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. WPC continues excessive rainfall potential as the trough progresses. The severe threat diminishes overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon/evening. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land. Residual runoff continues in sensitive basins.

    Sources

    Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning)

    This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The organized desk is back on the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s last advisory on Polo said the remnants dissipated over northwestern Mexico. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven roof and tree work on the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, a conditional tornado window on the Kansas warm front, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC’s 1300 UTC outlook (issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, valid 1300 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) upgrades Day 1 to a Slight Risk over about 82,000 square miles covering parts of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and a separate corridor through central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska. A broader Marginal wraps Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Wichita, Norman, and Midland. Forecasters Guyer and Bentley: thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A few tornadoes and localized wind damage are also possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.

    No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page last listed Watch 674 as the most recently issued product; that watch is not today’s product and is not in effect this morning. Any new watch this afternoon would be a new number. Today’s SPC local-storm-report board (1200 UTC Wednesday through 1159 UTC Thursday) is empty as of this desk. That is expected before the diurnal window.

    WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches run 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley, with a 2–4 inch, locally 6 inch footprint from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines south of I-80.

    Overnight into this morning

    Tuesday night’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board is the just-hit file. Two tornado reports came in from the Texas Panhandle after midnight UTC: a social-media video tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County at 0012 UTC (7:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday), position estimated via radar by NWS Amarillo; and a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County at 0245 UTC (9:45 p.m. CDT), reported south of State Highway 335 west of I-27, on the ground 3–4 minutes and then roped out. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

    Severe wind also verified on the same night: 67 mph at Roswell Air Center (KROW) in Chaves County, New Mexico, at 0033 UTC; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell at 0037 UTC; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas, at 0324 UTC, with additional measured gusts near 59 mph around 10:22 p.m. CDT. No hail reports were logged on that board. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already had the Southwest flood-and-Marginal frame; last night added the Panhandle tornado and New Mexico/west Texas wind tickets.

    Hotspot 1 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

    This is the higher-confidence diurnal severe corridor. SPC expects early-day convection across the southern Plains to weaken or shift north by early afternoon, then redevelop late afternoon into evening ahead of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Heating of a very moist airmass should push MLCAPE near or above 1,500 J/kg from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Supercells are possible at first. Front-parallel flow and increasing coverage favor a more linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises in the moist environment.

    Cities and counties to watch: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Midland on the Marginal fringe, and the Edwards Plateau counties that sit under the Slight contour. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

    Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before the late-afternoon initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

    Hotspot 2 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

    SPC upgraded this corridor on the 1300 UTC package. A rather strong low-level jet (50-plus knots diurnally) is forecast to shift northeast across central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska or southwest Iowa by evening. Destabilization near the warm front may stay weak because of clouds, ongoing rain, and poor mid-level lapse rates. The upgrade is about 0–1 km and 0–3 km wind profiles that stay supercell-conducive even if CAPE stays muted. Multiple tornadoes are treated as a viable possibility, not a high-confidence outbreak.

    Cities to watch: Topeka under the Slight population list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; the I-70 and Kansas River counties; the Nebraska state-line counties toward Omaha. Flood Watch language was already in play overnight for parts of north-central and northeast Kansas through Thursday afternoon, with 2–4 inches widespread and locally around 6 inches in the wetter cores.

    Restoration read: this is the tornado-and-water overlap. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. Training rain on the same warm front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Do not send the same crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county actually has a warning now.

    Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

    WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, is the working range, with two heavy periods: morning and again in the evening as the surface low intensifies.

    Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with some repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop and the flash-flood signal cuts off. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

    Just hit

    Claude and Randall County, Texas, tornado reports and the Roswell / Denver City wind gusts are last night’s tickets. They sit under yesterday’s Marginal from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is farther east and north: the southwest Oklahoma–northwest Texas–Edwards Plateau wind corridor, the Kansas warm-front tornado window, and the Moderate flood footprints on the southern Plains and the Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa axis.

    Polo is not a U.S. landfall desk this morning. NHC’s last forecast/advisory (number 38, 0300 UTC Wednesday) placed the remnants near 30.5°N 108.0°W over northwestern Mexico and forecast dissipation by 12Z Wednesday. Hanna is an open-Atlantic tropical storm well east of the mainland. Neither is a restoration staffing problem for the CONUS this morning.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    SW OK / NW TX / Edwards PlateauSevere wind, isolated hail, brief tornadoSPC SlightAfternoon–tonight initiation
    Central/eastern KS into SE NEA few tornadoes, localized wind, training rainSPC Slight + WPC Moderate floodConditional; no watch yet
    Red River Valley / west-central TXFlash flood, merging clustersWPC ModerateLate afternoon into Thursday morning
    KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr coresWPC ModerateAfternoon through overnight
    Southern Rockies / Front RangeUpslope heavy rain, flash floodWPC ModerateMorning and evening pulses
    TX Panhandle / Chaves County NMTornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday nightYesterday’s MarginalJust-hit / survey
    Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainlandNo landfalling hurricanePolo dissipated over NW MexicoQuiet on the mainland coast

    What this means for restoration teams

    A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. It is the afternoon and evening probability field. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

    For teams in southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and the Kansas warm-front counties: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

    What this is not

    This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is gone over northwestern Mexico. Hanna is in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2 on the SPC page is already a Marginal. Watches, if they come, will most likely fire late afternoon on the southern Plains and early evening on the Kansas warm front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 1313 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260929 (overnight) and 20260930 (today, empty after 12Z); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center remnants of Polo forecast/advisory 38. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

    Prior desk: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning)

    Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning)

    Map of Arizona, southern Nevada, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico marked for Monday's moderate flood risk
    Monday morning desk. Moderate flood on the Southwest and Four Corners. Not an NWS warning.

    This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners as tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys lifts north into already wet ground.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is still a major hurricane approaching Baja California Sur and Sonora. Restoration exposure today is water first in the Southwest, then isolated wind and hail cleanup from last night’s High Plains and north Texas cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC language at 0728 AM CDT: severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday. Isolated to scattered storms are still expected later over the northern High Plains from western Nebraska into the Dakotas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Those corridors do not carry unconditional severe probabilities on this outlook. The last issued convective watch was number 0674; nothing is live now.

    WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, issued 0812 UTC Monday and valid 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, is the headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. Guidance supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the region, with south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans favored. Precipitable water is forecast 2 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal. Burn scars, rocky soils, and slot canyons locally raise the flood threat. The Moderate outline forks farther south in New Mexico toward the Lordsburg area and the Sacramento Mountains.

    A weakening cyclone near the southern New England coast still supports showers and occasional embedded thunder along the coast. Instability is weak. That is leftover nor’easter weather, not a new severe corridor.

    Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

    This is today’s organized desk. Moisture from Polo and post-tropical Odalys is being drawn north ahead of a mid-level trough moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. Widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates should keep most storms disorganized, but rainfall rates on saturated soils do not need a supercell to fail a crossing.

    Counties and terrain to watch: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys that take runoff from steep slopes. WPC notes the Moderate continues into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains.

    Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans before the afternoon cores. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

    Hotspot 2 — Northern High Plains isolated storms

    SPC keeps general thunderstorms from western Nebraska north into North Dakota. A surface trough and modest 500–1500 J/kg CAPE later this afternoon could support isolated stronger cells. Uncertainty on location and intensity is why severe probabilities stayed off the map. A southerly low-level jet may keep elevated storms going tonight.

    That is the same family that produced last night’s Cherry County hail. Staff it as isolated hail and outflow, not a watch day.

    Hotspot 3 — Leftover Northeast coast and north Texas cleanup

    The coastal cyclone continues to weaken near southern New England. Showers and occasional thunder remain possible near the coast. Sunday’s High Wind Warnings on the Jersey Shore and Long Island are already off the morning board from yesterday’s afternoon desk. Treat remaining coastal work as leftover water and beach debris, not a new wind outbreak.

    North Texas had a short severe pulse last evening over Parker County. That is a just-hit ticket, not today’s outlook.

    Just hit

    SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Sunday to 1159 UTC Monday window, all preliminary:

    • 2216 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
    • 2330 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
    • 0032 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
    • 1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
    • 2300 UTC — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
    • 2320 UTC — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down and outdoor items blown around on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

    No tornado reports were received in that window. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that fired Sunday evening over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Southwest / Four CornersFlash flood, training heavy rain, burn-scar runoffWPC Moderate excessive rainfallLive outlook through Tuesday 12Z
    SE CA / southern NV / western AZNumerous showers and storms, isolated wet downburstGeneral thunder; no severe probsToday into evening
    Western NE into the DakotasIsolated strong storms, hail or gust possibleGeneral thunder; no severe probsLate afternoon–overnight
    Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TXQuarter hail, tree limbsExpired SVR / LSRsJust-hit cleanup
    Southern New England coastShowers, leftover coastal waterWeak cyclone; no severe areaFading
    Polo / OdalysMexico land and moisture feed, not CONUS landfallNHC Polo major hurricane near BajaMoisture into the Southwest

    What this means for restoration teams

    The national severe map is blank. That does not mean a quiet shop in Arizona, New Mexico, southwest Colorado, or southern Nevada. Moderate excessive-rainfall language on already wet soils is extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock in finished space. Burn-scar fans fail first. Stage before the afternoon moisture surge, not after the first flash-flood warning.

    Cherry County and Willow Park are yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe. Sully County’s 66 mph mesonet gust and the Sutton County 60 mph gust are isolated wind, not a line.

    Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    WPC keeps Moderate excessive-rainfall language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains, then into the southern Plains midweek. SPC’s next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the blank severe map lasts past sunset.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid); SPC local storm reports for 27/1200 UTC–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0812 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center advisories on Hurricane Polo and post-tropical Odalys; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon Quiet Pulse, Northeast flood Slight.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.