Quiet Pulse Storm Updates — Oct 23 Afternoon

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-23-morning: Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight): the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 24 / 8:02 PM CDT Friday, October 23, 2026, valid 240100Z–241200Z) holds a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas (roughly 82,400 sq mi, 2.4 million people). Isolated large hail, severe gusts and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening; the environment is becoming less conducive with decreasing buoyancy and nocturnal cooling.
No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 (most recently issued) has expired. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect. The organized severe window is closing.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0057 UTC Saturday October 24 / discussion 8:57 PM EDT Friday, valid 01Z–12Z October 24) continues a SLIGHT RISK for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. No Moderate or above. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall in terrain and burn scars.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Hurricane Vance (Eastern Pacific, ~110 mph, ~12.0°N 102.6°W) continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Atlantic quiet; no tropical cyclones.
The categorical severe lane remains at Marginal after the daytime Slight. Flood lane holds at Slight. Quiet Pulse is open.

Live Status

As of this Friday afternoon desk, October 23, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 24 / 0414Z October 24), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk over portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. Scattered thunderstorms organized into a mix of supercells and clusters earlier, with hail and severe gusts the primary risks. The severe threat is becoming increasingly isolated as nocturnal cooling sets in. No watches are valid.

WPC Day 1 holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the same general region. Locally heavy rainfall rates remain possible in intense cells, with isolated flash flooding possible on steep terrain, burn scars and urban areas. The tropical lane is closed for U.S. impact.

Hotspots

Central and western New Mexico / far west Texas: Marginal severe risk. Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and El Paso areas included in the footprint. Isolated hail and wind possible this evening. Threat diminishing. Prior Watch 696 has expired.

Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado: Marginal severe overlapping Slight excessive rainfall risk. Terrain-driven heavy rain possible. Residual flash-flood sensitivity from prior activity. Highest concern on burn scars and steep slopes.

Far west Texas (El Paso corridor): Included in both the Marginal severe and Slight flood areas. Straight hodographs earlier favored splitting supercells with hail as the main threat. Activity winding down.

Just-Hit

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 was active earlier today until 9 PM MDT. Special Weather Statements and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued this afternoon for strong storms producing nickel-size hail and gusts near 50–60 mph in the Albuquerque metro vicinity and other New Mexico counties. Preliminary local storm reports include hail and wind gusts, primarily outside the core NM area in adjacent states. Flash Flood Warnings active earlier in portions of New Mexico. No widespread major damage reports confirmed at this desk time; isolated hail and wind impacts likely. Prior overnight Moderate flood activity produced verified flash flooding in the Four Corners high terrain.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z Oct 24 2026)
Tropical	None	No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Hurricane Vance far south of Mexico (~110 mph). No U.S. tropical watches or warnings. Atlantic quiet.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 24): Marginal over portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX (~82k sq mi). Isolated hail, gusts, perhaps a tornado this evening. No watches or MDs valid. Threat diminishing.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight for portions of NM, southern CO and far west TX. Residual sensitivity from prior rainfall. No Moderate or higher.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable

Restoration Read

Dominant residual ticket is New Mexico and far west Texas hail and wind under the earlier Slight Risk and now-expired Watch 696. Isolated roof, vehicle and vegetation damage possible from large hail and gusts. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado terrain and burn scars. No tropical component. Monitor for any remaining Severe Thunderstorm Warnings or Flash Flood Warnings.

What This Is Not

This is not an official forecast or warning. It is a desk summary of public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS and NHC as of the afternoon update. SPC holds Marginal. WPC holds Slight excessive rainfall. No U.S. tropical watches or warnings are active. Quiet Pulse is open.

Looking Ahead

Saturday: SPC Day 2 maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across New Mexico and far west Texas. The severe threat continues to diminish overnight tonight after the peak this afternoon and evening. Residual runoff possible in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.

Sources

Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.