As of this Thursday afternoon desk, October 22, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 12:14 AM EDT October 23 / 0414Z October 23), the national picture centers on the Southwest and Four Corners. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico, with scattered severe storms remaining possible across the Southwest and Great Basin into the evening. Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine continues accelerating northeastward away with no U.S. coastal watches or warnings.
Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate
What Changed
- Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-22-morning): SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC October 23 / 8:01 PM CDT Thursday, October 22, 2026, valid 230100Z–231200Z) continues a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Scattered severe storms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight, with the most intense cells expected across western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. No upgrade beyond Slight; category unchanged.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0042 UTC Friday October 23 / discussion 8:44 PM EDT Thursday, valid 01Z–12Z October 23) holds a MODERATE RISK over portions of southwest Colorado, southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Additional 1–2 inches (locally higher) possible amid training convection and upslope flow; flash flooding likely in terrain, burn scars and slot canyons. Slight Risk surrounds it. Category unchanged from morning.
- NHC confirms Josephine has become a powerful extratropical low (last advisory). No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning remains in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. The system is accelerating northeastward away from the United States. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance continues well south of Mexico with no U.S. land threat.
- Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and watches have been in effect across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Tornado Warnings were issued earlier for parts of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and into New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for sensitive areas including Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat, and other Four Corners drainages. Local storm reports continue to verify large hail and damaging winds.
- Nothing material closed the severe or flood lanes. Moderate flood risk remains the highest open categorical level on Day 1. Quiet Pulse remains closed. This afternoon desk updates in place under the standard slug and links the morning desk under Sources.
Live Status
SPC Day 1 (0100Z October 23) lists a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Mid-level southerly flow remains strong on the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Ongoing convection is a mix of supercells and linear clusters shifting into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Buoyancy around 1000 J/kg supports robust storms into the evening, with favorable deep-layer shear (50–60 kt) for hail and severe gusts. A tornado or two remains possible, particularly from northwestern New Mexico northward toward southern Colorado where low-level flow is backed and terrain influences hodograph curvature. Farther north into the Great Basin, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible under more limited buoyancy, with damaging gusts the primary hazard. Marginal Risk covers broader portions of the region.
WPC Day 1 maintains the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) over southwest Colorado (San Juan Mountains), southern Utah and northwestern New Mexico. Anomalous moisture, diffluent flow, and training convection continue to support flash flooding. The San Juans see the heaviest accumulations, with model consensus for 3–4 inches and localized higher. Broader Slight Risk covers additional Southwest and Four Corners areas. Marginal Risk remains for parts of the interior Northwest and southeast Florida.
Hotspots
Four Corners (southwest Colorado, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico): Moderate excessive rainfall risk. Heavy rain cores on the San Juans and surrounding high terrain, plus southern Utah canyons and burn scars. Flash Flood Warnings already verified in parts of Arizona that feed into the region. Life-threatening flooding possible in slot canyons, dry washes and urban areas. Evacuation orders noted earlier in some southern Utah locations.
Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico: Slight severe risk with active convection. Supercells and clusters producing large hail and damaging winds; tornado potential elevated where low-level shear and terrain align. Phoenix metro and Mogollon Rim remain influenced. Flash flooding accompanies the convection. Verifying reports of hail and wind continue.
Get The Signal
What we actually ran, what it measured, and what it means for a restoration shop — every week, including the flops.
Residual California and Great Basin: Isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential under limited instability ahead of the upper low. Marginal excessive rainfall risk in places; main threat is terrain-driven runoff rather than widespread flooding.
Just-Hit
National Weather Service offices have issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across Arizona (Flagstaff and Phoenix CWAs) for 60 mph winds and quarter-size hail. Tornado Warnings were issued this afternoon for portions of Apache and Navajo Counties, Arizona, and parts of New Mexico. Flash Flood Warnings remain active for Apache County (Canyon de Chelly / Chinle Creek) with considerable damage threat noted. Local storm reports continue to verify hail and wind within the Slight Risk area. Rapid runoff is occurring in sensitive basins including the Paria River and Oak Creek corridors. No confirmed tornado damage reports received so far today. No widespread major river flooding reported.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 0414Z 23 Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | Josephine post-tropical, accelerating NE away. No U.S. coastal watches or warnings. TS Vance far south of Mexico. No other named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. |
| Severe | Slight | SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 23): Slight from eastern AZ into western NM and Four Corners. Large hail, damaging winds, tornado or two possible. Prior warnings and watches in AZ/NM. LSRs verifying hail/wind. Marginal elsewhere. |
| Flood | Moderate | WPC Day 1 Moderate over SW CO, southern UT, NW NM. Flash Flood Warnings live in AZ and NM. Slight Risk broader Southwest. Terrain, burn scars and canyons primary concern. |
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable.
Restoration Read
Primary restoration drivers are large hail and damaging wind impacts to roofs, vehicles, windows and vegetation across eastern and central Arizona, plus flash-flood damage to roads, low-water crossings, homes in washes and infrastructure in the Four Corners Moderate area. Burn scars and slot canyons remain highly sensitive. Isolated tornado potential adds tree and structure damage risk where rotation was indicated. No tropical wind or surge component on U.S. land. Water and hail remain the dominant ticket generators for the next 12–24 hours.
What This Is Not
This is not a tropical cyclone landfall, a High Risk excessive rainfall event, or an Enhanced or Moderate severe outlook. No hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect for any U.S. coastline or the Gulf of America. The Moderate flood risk is geographically focused on the Four Corners high terrain rather than a broad river flood. Isolated to scattered severe reports are occurring, but coverage remains limited.
Looking Ahead One Day
Friday: The upper low continues northeastward. SPC Day 2 maintains residual severe potential shifting eastward. WPC Day 2 carries the excessive rainfall threat into the southern and central High Plains. Josephine remains post-tropical and moves farther away. California and the Southwest see gradual drying behind the system, though residual runoff continues in saturated basins. No new tropical threat indicated for U.S. land.
Sources
- SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 23, 2026): spc.noaa.gov
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
- NWS watches/warnings: weather.gov
- NHC Josephine post-tropical: nhc.noaa.gov
- Morning desk: Storm Updates: Four Corners Flood — Oct 22 Morning
- Previous day: Storm Updates: Arizona Slight — Oct 21
Informational only — not an official warning. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts from weather.gov, spc.noaa.gov, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and nhc.noaa.gov. Turn around, don’t drown.
Get The Signal
What we actually ran, what it measured, and what it means for a restoration shop — every week, including the flops.
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