Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12

Tropical: None · Severe: Quiet · Flood: Slight

What Changed

• SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (latest 0100 UTC / 7:44 PM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 130100Z–131200Z) continues NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Summary: organized severe weather is not expected tonight. A few strong storms possible in central Kansas early this evening (weak buoyancy, late timing) and elevated convection over the lower Great Lakes (isolated small hail); no severe threat. Unchanged from morning desk and 1300 UTC. No watches or mesoscale discussions valid. Zero LSRs for the October 12 window.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1553 UTC / 11:53 AM EDT Monday, valid 16Z Mon–12Z Tue) maintains a Slight Risk across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. No Moderate or higher. Residual from Tropical Storm Rachel under the western trough. Category unchanged.
• Flash Flood Warnings and broader Flood Watches for the Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) and related areas expired earlier Monday. Residual runoff possible in slot canyons, burn scars, and downstream. Mid-Atlantic residual remains closed. Nothing reopened on the severe board.
• No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. Post-Tropical Isaias fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the sole tropical influence, tracked by WPC as flood residual. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico (near Cabo Corrientes) with Hurricane Warning on offshore waters only; no U.S. land threat.
• SPC Day 2 Outlook (1730 UTC) places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for Tuesday afternoon into night.

Live Status

As of late Monday evening, October 12, 2026 (~9:14 PM PDT), the national desk remains Quiet Pulse. SPC Day 1 holds zero severe thunderstorm probability areas and lists no watches. Organized severe from Isaias remnants closed overnight and stayed closed. Zero local storm reports received today.

WPC Day 1 ERO keeps the Slight Risk over the Great Basin and Southwest (western/central Mogollon Rim into northwest AZ, Wasatch and canyon areas of UT). Residual Rachel moisture supports isolated to scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible into the evening. Antecedent wet ground, burn scars, and slot canyons elevate flash-flood potential. The threat is expected to wind down after Monday night as the pattern shifts east. Paria products have expired; residual runoff possible as water moves through the system.

No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Isaias is fully dissipated. Residual Rachel moisture is the only residual tropical influence. Hurricane Simon stays well clear of the U.S. Residual minor river flooding persists in the Carolinas and other basins from prior rains, non-severe.

Hotspots

Southwest / Great Basin residual flood — WPC Slight ERO. Locally heavy rain possible into the evening over AZ Mogollon Rim, northwest AZ, and UT Wasatch/canyons. Burn-scar and slot-canyon runoff risk elevated. Highest residual over western AZ terrain; winding down overnight.

Paria River corridor (AZ/UT) — FFW and Flood Watch expired. Residual slot canyon and Lees Ferry risk as the confirmed flood wave moves downstream.

Rest of CONUS — Quiet. SPC no severe areas. Isolated elevated thunderstorms possible over the Upper Great Lakes or near the KS cold front, but no severe threat. Residual minor river flooding in the Carolinas and LA/TX remains non-severe.

Just Hit

No new SPC local storm reports for the October 12 window. The organized severe work from Sunday is closed. The live residual work was the Paria River flood wave from residual Rachel moisture, which has passed the gauge and is moving through the system. Flood products expired this afternoon.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse on the severe side. The residual work is water on the Southwest and Great Basin. Teams already on residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast continue extraction and drying. In AZ and UT, residual slot-canyon and burn-scar runoff risk continues through this evening before the pattern shifts east. No new wind or hail tickets. Standard quiet-day posture: check weather.gov for the county and stay ready for the residual flood window before it ends overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not a Slight or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher flood day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent activity. Quiet is the status.

Looking Ahead One Day

The western trough shifts east. Residual flood threat ends after Monday night. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook (1730 UTC, updated 11:58 AM CDT Monday, October 12, 2026, valid 131200Z–141200Z) carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night (large hail and damaging winds possible; isolated tornado near the triple point). Isolated elevated storms possible further east. Check the next Day 1 for any evolution.

Rising Queries

Residual interest: “hurricane tropical storm”, “power outage near me” (tied to recent Isaias residual and cleanup). Trends data limited this run; residual queries only.

Storm Hubs

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk and the morning desk. No active named storms threatening U.S. land.

Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Sources: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook, watches, reports), WPC ERO, weather.gov (watches/warnings), nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.