Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29

As of the afternoon desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC October 30), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special update 0132 UTC October 30) includes a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

• Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet) and the earlier afternoon desk (~8:14 PM PDT): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special issuance 0132 UTC Oct 30) maintains a Slight Risk for west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, driven by moisture from the remnants of Vance and ongoing convection. Marginal Risk also noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. Flood lane remains Slight. Active Flash Flood Warnings now in effect in northeastern Kansas (Marshall and Nemaha counties, with 3–3.5 inches already fallen) and portions of New Mexico.
• No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued; no longer a well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture is spreading into the south-central and southwestern United States. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
• A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail possible). Residual Flood Warnings continue on river systems from prior rainfall (St. Johns River near Deland and Astor in Florida; portions of New Mexico), plus localized Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.
• Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane remains Slight. No SPC Slight or higher, no WPC Moderate or higher, no U.S. tropical watch/warning. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Short-term focus is isolated severe and flash flooding in Kansas plus the TX/NM Slight Risk area.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, 2026, valid through 12Z October 30) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. In Kansas, widely scattered thunderstorms are developing near a stalled front in a moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) with sufficient shear for cell rotation, supporting an isolated hail threat as storms move northeastward. In southwest Texas, weak instability and elevated low-level shear/helicity support a brief tornado possibility with low-topped cells early this evening. No current watches.

WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC Fri Oct 30) places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, with hourly rain amounts potentially reaching 2 inches from cell mergers or training, and local totals of 5 inches possible near the TX/MX border. A Marginal Risk is also indicated near the Missouri/Kansas/Iowa/Nebraska border junction. Confidence is high in a heavy rainfall event through tonight into Friday morning from moisture associated with the remnants of Vance. PWATs elevated to 1.5–2 inches across much of Texas.

NWS has issued Flash Flood Warnings for west central Marshall County and northern Nemaha County in northeastern Kansas until approximately 2:45 AM CDT, based on 3–3.5 inches of rain with additional amounts possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains for northeastern Nemaha County. Residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida) continue. High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. Additional Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches are in effect in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.

Hotspots

• West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall this evening into Friday morning. Highest totals near the border; flash flooding possible from training storms and elevated PWATs (1.5–2 inches). Urban and low-lying areas most vulnerable. Dominant flood lane.
• Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Flash Flood Warnings in Nemaha and Marshall counties (3–3.5 inches already fallen near Bern and Marysville). Primary short-term severe and flood focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan.
• Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories and active Flash Flood Warnings in the Southwest and Hawaii. Not the driver of the new Slight Risk.

Just-Hit / Local Storm Reports

Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (radar-indicated 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail near Bern). Flash Flood Warnings in Marshall and Nemaha counties with gauge-indicated 3–3.5 inches of rain. SPC storm reports page previously showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports received for the day; local warnings indicate ongoing activity. No widespread significant reports beyond the active warnings.

Pulse Table

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary residual and short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in west and central Texas, southeastern New Mexico, and now northeastern Kansas under active warnings (3+ inches already in Marshall/Nemaha). Isolated hail potential in central and northeast Kansas with an active Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Ongoing river stage concerns on residual Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

Looking Ahead

SPC Day 2 holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of southern and central Arizona for Friday (isolated damaging winds and large hail possible). Day 3 shows no severe areas. WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for TX/NM continues into early Friday; residual moisture from Vance contributes to Southwest showers. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with rain possible across the Plains, but no elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet.

Rising Queries

• flood watch
• Texas flood
• Kansas storms
• severe thunderstorm warning
• flash flood

Sources

• Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29)
• Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO special update 0132 UTC Oct 30, Slight Risk TX/NM)
• National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, active FFWs and SVR Warning in KS)
• National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; remnants of Vance EPAC)
• Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.