Tag: Kansas

Storm Updates: Plains Severe — Nov 2

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Enhanced · Flood: Slight): SPC Day 1 has been updated. Earlier cycles (including 1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) carried an Enhanced Risk across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The latest 0100 UTC November 3 outlook (issued 0700 PM CST November 2 / 0100Z November 3, valid 030100Z–031200Z) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, with QLCS tornado potential and damaging winds. Tornado Watches 701, 702, and 703 remain active covering portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC November 3, discussion 802 PM EST November 2) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of central and southern Florida, focused along the east coast. The prior Moderate Risk over the Four Corners / Southwest has been removed; Plains flash-flood risk was lowered and the Slight removed with this update as storm mode is progressive.
Tropical lane remains closed. National Hurricane Center confirms no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A western Atlantic disturbance has a 30 percent chance of subtropical development over the next 7 days but no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Active Tornado Watches 701 (expires 0400 UTC Nov 3), 702 (expires 0500 UTC), and 703 (expires 0900 UTC) plus mesoscale discussions confirm ongoing severe potential with embedded rotating elements and possible gusts above 70 mph. Preliminary LSRs include hail reports near Norman, Moore, and Kingfisher, Oklahoma, and wind gusts to 59–61 mph near Hobart, Oklahoma, and Elkhart, Kansas. No confirmed tornado reports in the latest summary.
Nothing material upgraded beyond Slight on the severe or flood lanes. The Enhanced window has closed; the overnight progression into Missouri and Arkansas continues under the Slight.

Live Status

As of the afternoon desk on Monday, November 2, 2026 (approximately 8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC November 3), the national picture centers on the southern and central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 3 cycle) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.” Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into tonight, with the threat impacting western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight. A line of storms is tracking east-northeast across central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas under 65–70 knots of deep-layer shear and mid-level jet support. Discrete cells near the Red River carry supercell potential. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk across central and southern Florida. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Hotspots

Southern and central Plains (Oklahoma, Kansas, northwest Texas): Primary focus under SPC Slight Risk and active Tornado Watches 701–703. Ongoing linear mode with embedded mesovortices capable of QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds to 70+ mph. Further south near the Red River, discrete supercells possible with hail, wind, and tornado risk as the low-level jet ramps up. Expect the severe threat to progress eastward into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.
Central and southern Florida: WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, focused along the east coast. Low-level easterly flow and coastal convergence support localized extreme rainfall potential overnight despite decreasing coverage. Residual Flash Flood Warnings noted earlier in Broward and Palm Beach counties.
Residual Southwest: Prior Moderate excessive rainfall and Flash Flood Warnings across Arizona (including burn scars and river gauges) have largely wound down. Isolated residual flooding possible on saturated soils, but not the dominant lane today.

Just-Hit

Preliminary SPC local storm reports for the current period include hail near Norman, Moore, and Kingfisher, Oklahoma (up to 1.25 inches), and measured wind gusts to 59–61 mph near Hobart, Oklahoma, and Elkhart, Kansas. Tree limbs and a trampoline reported damaged in Rooks County, Kansas. No confirmed tornado reports in the latest filtered summary reviewed. Tornado Watch 701 issued at 1925 UTC November 2; additional watches 702 and 703 issued later. Downstream considerations remain for eastern Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~8:16 PM PST / 04:16 UTC Nov 3 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: 30% chance of subtropical development for a western Atlantic disturbance over 7 days; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 3): SLIGHT RISK southern and central Plains (~134k sq mi). Earlier Enhanced over N-central OK / S-central KS closed. Tornado Watches 701, 702, 703 active KS/OK/TX. Ongoing line with QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat. MDs including 2435/2437.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk central and southern Florida (east coast focus). Prior Southwest Moderate closed. Plains Slight removed. Residual FFWs possible in FL and AZ.

Restoration Read

Primary short-term ticket is wind and possible tornado damage (roofs, siding, trees, power lines, outbuildings) across central Oklahoma into southern Kansas under the active watches and ongoing line. Secondary is localized flash flooding and urban ponding in central and southern Florida under the Slight ERO. Residual Southwest water extraction possible but lower priority. No named tropical restoration file. Stage for overnight progression into Missouri and Arkansas.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse. SPC Slight Risk and active Tornado Watches are open. WPC holds Slight, not Moderate or higher. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC. Informational only — not an official warning.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 outlook (valid 031200Z–041200Z) holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from east Texas and the Ark-La-Miss to the Mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered storms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes, primarily with embedded line segments and limited buoyancy. WPC Day 2 points to continued localized heavy rain potential. The Plains severe window should diminish overnight into Tuesday as the system progresses east. Monitor for residual flooding on already wet ground.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z November 3 / 0700 PM CST November 2, Tornado Watches 701–703, Mesoscale Discussions, today’s LSRs), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion 802 PM EST November 2), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, and advisories), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet, Tropical Weather Outlook 700 PM EST November 2). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-11-02-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

November 2, 2026

Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Nov 2 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the November 1 afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-11-01-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate): SPC Day 1 has evolved. Earlier cycles on November 2 carried an Enhanced Risk across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The latest 0100 UTC November 3 outlook (issued 0700 PM CST November 2, valid 030100Z–031200Z) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains.
A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma, with QLCS-type tornado potential maximized in embedded rotating elements and damaging winds, including possible gusts above 70 mph with bowing segments. Tornado Watch 701 remains in effect for portions of central and southern Kansas, western and central Oklahoma, and northwest Texas.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0100 UTC November 3) maintains a Slight Risk for portions of central and southern Florida, focused along the east coast. The prior Moderate Risk over the Four Corners / Southwest has been removed; Plains flash-flood risk was lowered as storm mode is progressive.
No named tropical cyclones. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of America. A western Atlantic disturbance has a near-zero percent chance of development in 48 hours and 30 percent over 7 days, well offshore, with no U.S. land threat or watches/warnings.
Active Tornado Watches and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings live in the Plains corridor. Flash Flood Warnings active in parts of Florida. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for portions of South Dakota and New Mexico.

Live Status

As of the morning desk on Monday, November 2, 2026 (updated late evening PST / early November 3 UTC), the national picture centers on the southern and central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC November 3 cycle) states: “THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.” Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into tonight. Severe storms will also affect western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.

On water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is evident in the southern High Plains with cyclonically curved southwest flow in place over the southern and central Plains. A 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed from southern New Mexico extending northeastward into western Oklahoma. A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing to the east of the mid-level jet from far southern Kansas into southwest Oklahoma. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are mostly in the lower to mid 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Strong deep-layer shear of 65 to 70 knots at Oklahoma City supports continued severe potential as the line segment organizes and moves eastward.

So far across Oklahoma, the dominant storm mode has been linear, and discrete supercell development has failed to materialize. Within the ongoing line, tornado potential is maximized with embedded rotating elements. A few QLCS-type tornadoes still appear possible as this line moves eastward across central/northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas this evening. A wind-damage threat accompanies the line. Further south into southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, cells have been more discrete, with a couple of supercells ongoing near the Red River. Severe wind gusts, hail and potentially a few tornadoes remain possible. In west-central and north-central Texas, a band of strong thunderstorms is developing near a surface trough with MLCAPE 2000 to 2500 J/kg; primary threats are severe wind gusts and hail.

Tornado Watches remain active covering portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Mesoscale discussions note the ongoing line with potential for embedded intensification. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued, including for Montague County in north central Texas. Overnight local storm reports are expected as the system progresses eastward into Missouri and Arkansas.

Flood risk has moderated. WPC maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of central and southern Florida, with the main focus along the east coast. Overall coverage and magnitude of heavy rainfall should be lower overnight, though low-level easterly flow and instability continue to support localized extreme rainfall potential on saturated soils. Localized flash flooding is possible overnight from portions of Texas into Iowa, but primarily rate-driven and urban as the convective line is progressive. Flash Flood Warnings remain active in parts of Florida (including Brevard, Indian River, and Broward Counties) and residual in Arizona from earlier activity. High Wind Warnings continue across portions of the South Dakota foothills and southern New Mexico mountains through early Tuesday.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of late evening PST / early Nov 3 UTC 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf. NHC: near 0% / 30% formation chance for western Atlantic disturbance over 48h / 7 days; no U.S. coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Slight	SPC Day 1 (0100Z Nov 3): SLIGHT RISK southern and central Plains (~134k sq mi). Earlier Enhanced closed. Tornado Watches active KS/OK/TX. Damaging winds, hail, few QLCS tornadoes possible into tonight. Active warnings.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight residual central/southern FL east coast. Prior Four Corners Moderate removed. Isolated progressive rain risk TX-IA. Active Flash Flood Warnings FL residual AZ. High Wind Warnings SD/NM.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Restoration Read

Dominant ticket is severe weather damage across the southern and central Plains under the Slight Risk, with potential for tornadoes (QLCS type), damaging winds to 70+ mph, and hail as the line progresses overnight into Missouri and Arkansas. Secondary is residual flash flooding in Florida and high wind impacts in South Dakota and New Mexico. No widespread catastrophic flooding expected. No named storm hub. Informational only — not an official warning. Follow local NWS offices and official products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook, NWS watches/warnings, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook, NHC.

November 2, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29

As of the afternoon desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC October 30), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special update 0132 UTC October 30) includes a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet) and the earlier afternoon desk (~8:14 PM PDT): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (special issuance 0132 UTC Oct 30) maintains a Slight Risk for west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, driven by moisture from the remnants of Vance and ongoing convection. Marginal Risk also noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. Flood lane remains Slight. Active Flash Flood Warnings now in effect in northeastern Kansas (Marshall and Nemaha counties, with 3–3.5 inches already fallen) and portions of New Mexico.
No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet with no formation expected in the next 7 days. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued; no longer a well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture is spreading into the south-central and southwestern United States. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail possible). Residual Flood Warnings continue on river systems from prior rainfall (St. Johns River near Deland and Astor in Florida; portions of New Mexico), plus localized Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.
Severe lane holds at Marginal. Flood lane remains Slight. No SPC Slight or higher, no WPC Moderate or higher, no U.S. tropical watch/warning. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Short-term focus is isolated severe and flash flooding in Kansas plus the TX/NM Slight Risk area.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, 2026, valid through 12Z October 30) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. In Kansas, widely scattered thunderstorms are developing near a stalled front in a moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) with sufficient shear for cell rotation, supporting an isolated hail threat as storms move northeastward. In southwest Texas, weak instability and elevated low-level shear/helicity support a brief tornado possibility with low-topped cells early this evening. No current watches.

WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC Fri Oct 30) places a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, with hourly rain amounts potentially reaching 2 inches from cell mergers or training, and local totals of 5 inches possible near the TX/MX border. A Marginal Risk is also indicated near the Missouri/Kansas/Iowa/Nebraska border junction. Confidence is high in a heavy rainfall event through tonight into Friday morning from moisture associated with the remnants of Vance. PWATs elevated to 1.5–2 inches across much of Texas.

NWS has issued Flash Flood Warnings for west central Marshall County and northern Nemaha County in northeastern Kansas until approximately 2:45 AM CDT, based on 3–3.5 inches of rain with additional amounts possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains for northeastern Nemaha County. Residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida) continue. High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. Additional Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches are in effect in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Hawaii.

Hotspots

West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall this evening into Friday morning. Highest totals near the border; flash flooding possible from training storms and elevated PWATs (1.5–2 inches). Urban and low-lying areas most vulnerable. Dominant flood lane.
Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Flash Flood Warnings in Nemaha and Marshall counties (3–3.5 inches already fallen near Bern and Marysville). Primary short-term severe and flood focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan.
Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories and active Flash Flood Warnings in the Southwest and Hawaii. Not the driver of the new Slight Risk.

Just-Hit / Local Storm Reports

Active Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northeastern Nemaha County, Kansas (radar-indicated 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail near Bern). Flash Flood Warnings in Marshall and Nemaha counties with gauge-indicated 3–3.5 inches of rain. SPC storm reports page previously showed no tornado, hail, or wind reports received for the day; local warnings indicate ongoing activity. No widespread significant reports beyond the active warnings.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:16 PM PDT / 04:16 UTC Oct 30 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory, no well-defined center) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture spreading into SW U.S. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~19k sq mi, ~592k people) for central/NE Kansas (isolated hail) and locally SW Texas (brief tornado possible). No active watches. SVR Warning in Nemaha County KS.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 ERO Slight Risk west/central TX and SE NM (special update). Marginal near KS/MO/IA/NE. Active FFWs in NE KS (Marshall/Nemaha) and NM. Residual river Flood Warnings continue.

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse with an elevated flood lane. Primary residual and short-term ticket is flash flooding and rapid runoff in west and central Texas, southeastern New Mexico, and now northeastern Kansas under active warnings (3+ inches already in Marshall/Nemaha). Isolated hail potential in central and northeast Kansas with an active Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Ongoing river stage concerns on residual Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and road closures. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.

Looking Ahead

SPC Day 2 holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of southern and central Arizona for Friday (isolated damaging winds and large hail possible). Day 3 shows no severe areas. WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for TX/NM continues into early Friday; residual moisture from Vance contributes to Southwest showers. Halloween weekend looks unsettled with rain possible across the Plains, but no elevated severe or flood lanes open beyond current products yet.

Rising Queries

flood watch
Texas flood
Kansas storms
severe thunderstorm warning
flash flood

Sources

Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29)
Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO special update 0132 UTC Oct 30, Slight Risk TX/NM)
National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, active FFWs and SVR Warning in KS)
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; remnants of Vance EPAC)
Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-morning

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 29, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 29 Morning

As of the morning desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (updated late evening PDT / early October 30 UTC), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0132 UTC October 30) shows a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with the afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado early this evening. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, tied to moisture from the remnants of Vance. A Marginal Risk area is noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of West Texas and SE New Mexico through Friday evening.
Remnants of Vance (Eastern Pacific): NHC issued the final advisory (Advisory 35, 800 PM MST October 29). The system no longer has a well-defined center. Moisture continues to spread into the south-central and southwestern United States, but no U.S. land threat and no coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones with no formation expected in the next 7 days.
Residual Flood Warnings continue on the St. Johns River system in Florida (near Deland and Astor) and portions of New Mexico from prior rainfall, plus localized coastal flood advisories (California, Florida Keys). Winter Storm Warnings active in Alaska. These do not alter the national ERO lane beyond the Slight in the Southwest.
Nothing moved severe to Slight or above, flood to Moderate or above, or opened a tropical watch/warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Dominant residual ticket is the Slight excessive rainfall risk in West TX / SE NM from Vance moisture.

Live Status

WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC October 30, 2026) shows a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. High confidence in a heavy rainfall event through tonight as a mid-level disturbance associated with the remnants of Vance moves into the region. Southeasterly flow elevates PWATs to 1.5-2 inches. Hourly amounts to 2 inches possible with training or cell mergers; local totals to 5 inches near the TX/MX border. Marginal Risk near the KS/MO/NE/IA junction. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches cover much of the Slight Risk area through Friday evening.

NWS has residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida, California). High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Overnight LSRs may include isolated hail in Kansas; no widespread damaging reports noted on latest scan.

Hotspots

West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall tonight into Friday morning from Vance remnant moisture. Training storms and elevated PWATs support localized flash flooding, especially urban areas, roads, low-lying spots, and burn scars. Dominant residual restoration ticket. Flood Watches in effect.
Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Primary short-term severe focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson.
Southwest Texas: Localized brief tornado possible early this evening with low-topped cells in a moist airmass. Short-lived.
Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories. Not tied to the new ERO Slight.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~03Z Oct 30 2026 / ~8 PM PDT Oct 29)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture spreading into SW U.S. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~19k sq mi, ~592k people) for central/NE Kansas (isolated hail) and locally SW Texas (brief tornado possible). No active watches or MDs.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for west/central Texas and SE New Mexico (Vance moisture). Marginal near KS/MO/NE/IA. Residual river Flood Warnings (FL St. Johns, NM) and coastal advisories continue. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches active in TX/NM.

Rising Queries

flood watch
Texas flood
New Mexico rain
Vance moisture
Kansas hail

Restoration Read

Quiet Pulse. Dominant residual ticket is localized flash flooding potential in west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Vance remnant moisture tonight into Friday, plus isolated hail in central/northeast Kansas and a very limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Residual river stage concerns on Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.

What This Is Not

Sources: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO Slight Risk, updated 0132 UTC Oct 30), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, Flood Watches in TX/NM), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; Remnants of Vance EPAC final advisory). Afternoon desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 28, 2026

Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 25

As of this Sunday evening desk, October 25, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC October 26), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle on the Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC update, valid through 1200Z October 26). Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the central and southern High Plains. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning: Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight · Tropical: None): SPC Day 1 (2000Z October 25 / 2:55 PM CDT) continues a MARGINAL RISK of severe thunderstorms from New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle (roughly 92,000 sq mi, 2.6 million people including Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Rio Rancho, Roswell). Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible this evening. No active Severe Thunderstorm Watches. Threat remains isolated.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0103 UTC October 26 / 9:03 PM EDT October 25, valid 01Z–12Z October 26) maintains a SLIGHT RISK for portions of the central and southern High Plains (Far West Texas through the Panhandle into southwestern Kansas). Florida Slight Risk was removed and reduced to Marginal along the coast. Training storms and saturated soils support localized flash flooding. No Moderate or above.
Local NWS offices continue to issue Flash Flood Warnings (e.g., Eddy County NM, Lincoln/Chaves Counties) and occasional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of New Mexico on saturated soils from multi-day rainfall.
No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet. Tropical Storm Vance (Eastern Pacific) and Tropical Storm Olana (Central Pacific) pose no U.S. land threat.
Nothing elevated any lane beyond Quiet Pulse criteria. Severe remains Marginal, flood remains Slight, tropical remains None. Primary residual ticket is isolated hail/wind and flash-flood runoff across New Mexico and far west Texas.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight. Primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a tornado or two possible. Greater buoyancy exists across southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. No convective watches are active. Mesoscale Discussions earlier in the day (including MD 2409) indicated watch unlikely.

NWS Albuquerque and neighboring offices have active or recent Flash Flood Warnings for areas including southwestern Eddy County (Carlsbad Caverns area), southeastern Lincoln and west-central Chaves Counties, with radar-indicated heavy rain of 1–4 inches. Flood Watches cover portions of east-central, northeast, and southeast New Mexico through late tonight. Saturated soils elevate runoff risk in arroyos, low-water crossings, and urban areas.

WPC maintains the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the central and southern High Plains. Neighborhood probabilities support additional 1–2 inch amounts with training storms. Florida risk stepped down to Marginal. No Moderate or higher ERO.

Hotspots

Central and eastern New Mexico (Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell, Carlsbad corridor): Marginal severe residual and WPC Slight. Isolated hail, wind, and brief tornado possible. Active Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches on saturated soils; river flooding residual.
Far west Texas and western Texas Panhandle: Marginal severe overlap. Isolated damaging wind and hail possible. Residual urban and arroyo runoff risk under the Slight ERO.
Central and southern High Plains (into southwestern Kansas): WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Training storms support localized flash flooding on saturated ground.

Just-Hit

Flash Flood Warnings active or recent in Eddy, Lincoln, and Chaves Counties with 1–4 inches of rain and ongoing or imminent flooding of roads, low-lying areas, and arroyos. Flood Watches continue across multiple New Mexico zones. Occasional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for hail and gusts. No confirmed significant tornado reports this evening. Localized flooding and isolated severe impacts continue in the Southwest. San Juan River residual flooding from prior crest near Shiprock.

Pulse Table

Lane	Status	Notes (as of ~9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC Oct 26 2026)
Tropical	None	No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TS Vance (EPAC) and TS Olana (CPAC) pose no U.S. land threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe	Marginal	SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk over NM into far west TX and western TX Panhandle. No active watches. Isolated hail/wind/tornado possible this evening/overnight.
Flood	Slight	WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for central/southern High Plains. Active FFWs and Flood Watches in NM. Saturated soils. Florida now Marginal. No Moderate or higher.

Restoration Read

Residual restoration ticket is isolated hail and wind damage to roofs, vehicles, siding, and trees across New Mexico and far west Texas under the Marginal Risk. Secondary and more widespread ticket is localized flash flooding and rapid runoff in urban corridors (Albuquerque, Roswell, Carlsbad, El Paso), small streams, canyons, arroyos, and burn scars on already saturated soils. High Plains training rain supports additional runoff. No widespread catastrophic damage expected.

What This Is Not

Looking Ahead

Monday (Day 2): SPC shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC Day 1 threat winds down overnight into early Monday. Residual flash-flood sensitivity remains where soils are saturated. Monitor local NWS offices for any lingering warnings.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable.

Sources

Official products: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 2000Z Oct 25), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 0103Z Oct 26), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, flood statements), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; TS Vance and TS Olana). Morning desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-25-morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 25, 2026

Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

As of ~9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 (KS/MO, expired 0400Z) has reached its expiration; Watches 683 (OK/TX Panhandle until Midnight CDT / 0500Z) and 684 (west TX until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect. Primary threats unchanged: large hail to 2.75 inches, damaging winds to 80+ mph, isolated tornado possible.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook (issued 0800 PM CDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) continues to hold the Slight Risk across southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley for large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. No category upgrade since the morning 1300 UTC outlook.
Preliminary SPC LSRs (1200 UTC Oct 13 onward, through ~2344 UTC) remain: hail to 2.75 inches near Matador TX and Mclean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, multiple 1.00–1.75 inch reports in KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX, 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. No tornado reports received.
Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue under the remaining watches, with prior destructive threats noted in the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Slight ERO holds across the corridor with Flood Watches for KS/MO including KC metro. Tropical lane unchanged: no U.S. land threats from Atlantic or EP systems.
No new mesoscale discussions issued in the last hour; storms continue organizing into clusters along the front with upscale growth expected overnight under the low-level jet.

Live Status

As of approximately 9:16 PM PDT / 11:16 PM CDT / 0416Z Wednesday, October 14, 2026, Severe Thunderstorm Watches 683 and 684 remain live over western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle, and west Texas, while Watch 682 for Kansas and northwest Missouri has expired. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk continues to cover scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight from the southern/central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg, and 35–45 kt shear continue to support supercells transitioning to linear and cluster modes. Preliminary LSRs confirm large hail and damaging winds are verifying. The low-level jet is expected to sustain convection overnight.

A Marginal Risk persists for isolated severe gusts in parts of western and central New York and for overnight expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri. The WPC Day 1 Slight Excessive Rainfall Outlook and associated Flood Watches cover the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas. The multi-day unsettled period with heavy rain potential continues through Thursday.

Hotspots

KS / NW MO — Watch 682 expired

Southern and eastern Kansas into west-central and northwest Missouri were under Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z. The watch included the Kansas City metro, Wichita, and Topeka corridors. Threats included large hail (1–2.5 inches), damaging winds (60–80 mph), and a low tornado risk, concurrent with Flood Watches for the KC metro. Active warnings earlier included destructive wind threats over the Kansas City area; preliminary hail and wind reports occurred in central Kansas. Storms continue to track east as the watch ends.

Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX — Watches 683 and 684 live

Western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas remain under Watch 683 until Midnight CDT / 0500Z; west Texas under Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z. Threats: large to very large hail (to 2.75 inches), damaging winds (to 81 mph), and an isolated tornado. LSRs include 2.75-inch hail near Matador and Mclean TX, 2.50-inch hail near Hedley TX, and an 81 mph gust near Turkey TX. Prior mesoscale discussion 2371 noted an organizing cluster across southwestern into central Oklahoma. The WPC Slight ERO extends into the region.

Overnight Marginal and western/central NY

A Marginal Risk continues for isolated severe gusts. Scattered storms remain possible in western and central New York with a watch unlikely. Overnight Marginal expansion into far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri is possible for organized wind if convection persists along the front.

Just Hit

Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (from 1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC): hail to 2.75 inches near Matador (Motley County, TX) and Mclean (Wheeler County, TX), 2.50 inches near Hedley (Donley County, TX), 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX. Wind reports: 81 mph measured near Turkey (Hall County, TX), 75 mph near Flomot (Motley County, TX), 70 mph near Easton KS (power pole down), 63 mph near McAdoo TX, and tree limbs down near Hazelton KS. Radar-indicated larger hail and 70–80 mph gusts occurred under active warnings, including earlier destructive threats over the Kansas City metro. No tornado reports have been received. Residual minor Flood Warnings elsewhere remain non-severe leftovers.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
KS / NW MO	Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight; Watch 682 expired 0400Z; WPC Slight; Flood Watches (KC metro)	Watch expired; earlier LSRs and destructive warnings including KC metro; storms tracking east
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle / west TX	Large hail (to 2.75″), damaging wind (to 81 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight/Marginal; Watches 683/684 until Midnight–2 AM CDT; WPC Slight	Live; Watches 683/684 active; 2.75″ hail and 81 mph wind LSRs in TX Panhandle
Overnight Marginal / western-central NY	Isolated severe gusts, localized wind	SPC Marginal	Isolated possible; limited NY coverage; overnight expansion possible
CONUS watches / outlook	Severe storms	SPC Slight; Watches 683 + 684 live (682 expired); LSRs arriving	Two watches active; short-fuse warnings and preliminary reports ongoing

Restoration Read

Slight Risk severe weather continues under live Watches 683 and 684 (Watch 682 expired), with preliminary LSRs confirming large hail (to 2.75 inches) and damaging wind gusts (to 81 mph) across the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas. Teams covering Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, Amarillo, Lubbock, and Oklahoma corridors should stage for tree, roof, siding, and exterior damage from hail and gusts. Concurrent Flood Slight and active Flood Watches make water the co-equal ticket; monitor low-lying areas, creeks, and urban runoff as rainfall rates climb. No tropical or coastal surge tickets. Standard posture: confirm county products on weather.gov, stage for mixed wind/hail/water response, and re-check as storms continue overnight.

What This Is Not

Not an official warning. Not an Enhanced or higher severe day. Not a Moderate or higher excessive rainfall day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a reason to invent tornadoes or widespread damage beyond the preliminary reports. The Slight remains the official category; Watches 683 and 684 confirm the threat is still underway in the southern portions. All reports remain preliminary and subject to revision.

Looking Ahead One Day

SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk over portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau (mainly damaging winds, with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible) for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with Marginal elsewhere including parts of the upper Ohio Valley. WPC continues the multi-day heavy rain potential into the Plains/Missouri Valley corridor. Cooler air is expected later in the week.

Rising Queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Storm Hub

No named storm threatening U.S. land. Prior residual hubs: Hurricane Isaias 2026 and Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. No new hub created.

Sources

Primary: spc.noaa.gov (Day 1 outlook 0100 UTC, mesoscale discussions including MD 2371, Watches 682/683/684, today’s LSRs), WPC Day 1 ERO, NWS watches/warnings summary, nhc.noaa.gov (no U.S. tropical threats). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13 Morning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Confirm local products on weather.gov before travel or work. Watches and warnings expire and are replaced. Preliminary reports can change.

October 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Plains Slight — Oct 13 Morning

Tropical: None · Severe: Slight · Flood: Slight

What Changed

Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682 (southern/eastern Kansas into west-central/northwest Missouri until 11 PM CDT / 0400Z), 683 (western Oklahoma and eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas until Midnight CDT / 0500Z), and 684 (west Texas until 2 AM CDT / 0700Z) remain in effect as of 0210Z October 14. Primary threats: large hail to 2.5 inches, damaging winds to 75–80 mph, isolated tornado possible. Status messages updated through 0153Z.
SPC 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0800 PM CDT / 7:00 PM PDT Tuesday, October 13, 2026, valid 140100Z–141200Z) maintains the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Summary: scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight. Isolated large hail possible in the southern Great Lakes. Core Slight area holds with ongoing supercell and linear modes. Next outlook by 0600Z.
Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports (1200 UTC Oct 13 through ~2344 UTC) include hail to 2.75 inches near Matador and McLean TX, 2.50 inches near Hedley TX, 2.00 inches near Lipscomb TX, 1.75 inches near Matador, and multiple 1.00-inch reports across KS/OK/TX; wind gusts to 81 mph near Turkey TX (TTU mesonet), 75 mph near Flomot TX, 70 mph near Easton KS, 63 mph near McAdoo TX, plus tree limbs down near Hazelton KS and a power pole down near Grantville KS. No tornado reports received.
Active short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue across the Plains, including earlier destructive-threat storms over the Kansas City metro. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0010 UTC Oct 14 / 8:10 PM EDT) holds the Slight Risk across the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, with subtle shifts based on radar and HRRR trends. Flood Watches remain for portions of KS and adjacent western MO.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy (Eastern Pacific) remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land threat. Tropical lane unchanged. Severe and flood categories remain Slight; main movement is confirmed initiation with measured LSRs and active watches continuing into the overnight.

Live Status

As of the Tuesday morning desk update (approximately 9:13 PM PDT / 11:13 PM CDT / 0413Z on October 13/14, 2026), Severe Thunderstorm Watches 682, 683, and 684 remain live over the central and southern Plains into west Texas. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk covers scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts this evening into tonight over the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000–2500 J/kg) and 0–6 km shear near 35 knots support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible before modes become more linear. Primary hazards remain large hail (up to 2.75 inches reported) and damaging winds (up to 81 mph measured). Tornado potential is low but non-zero near the front. Short-fuse Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been active, including destructive threats over the Kansas City metro.

A Marginal Risk continues for parts of the southern Great Lakes (isolated large hail with elevated storms) and broader areas of southwest Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley. A small Marginal ERO covers southeast Texas and adjacent Louisiana for urban/poor-drainage flooding. WPC Slight ERO remains in place, driven by slow cell motions, repeating convection, and a developing low-level jet after sunset. Neighborhood probabilities support elevated chances for >3 inches near Kansas City and over the southern High Plains. This is the start of a multi-day unsettled period with additional heavy rainfall possible through Thursday.

Pulse Table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this evening
KS / NW MO (including KC metro)	Large hail (1–2.5″), damaging wind (60–80 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight; Watch 682 until 11 PM CDT; WPC Slight; Flood Watches	Live; SVR warnings (destructive in KC, some cancelled); LSRs of hail/wind; power outages reported
Western OK / eastern TX Panhandle into NW TX	Large hail (to 2.75″), damaging wind (to 81 mph), isolated tornado, heavy rain	SPC Slight/Marginal; Watch 683 until Midnight CDT; WPC Slight	Live; Watch 683 active; 2.75″ hail and 81 mph wind LSRs
West Texas (near I-20 / Midland area)	Large hail (to 2.5″), isolated damaging wind	SPC Slight; Watch 684 until 2 AM CDT	Live; supercell threat continuing
Southern Great Lakes	Isolated large hail	SPC Marginal	Elevated storms possible overnight
Southeast Texas / adjacent Louisiana	Urban/poor-drainage flooding	WPC Marginal ERO	Evening window; high FFG
CONUS severe watches / LSRs	Severe storms	Watches 682/683/684 live; hail to 2.75″, wind to 81 mph	Initiation confirmed; no tornado LSRs

Rising queries

Trends unreachable this run.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 Outlook places a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from western North Texas across Oklahoma to the western Ozark Plateau for Wednesday, primarily damaging wind gusts with isolated hail and a tornado or two possible. Marginal Risk extends into parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Thursday across the Plains and Midwest corridor. Cooler air arrives later in the week.

Restoration posture: the Plains severe and flood window is open this evening into tonight under Watches 682, 683, and 684 and Flood Watches. Primary hazards large hail and damaging wind under supercells and clusters, with confirmed reports of both. Check weather.gov for county-level warnings, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and watch status, and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for the excessive rainfall overlay. No named storm hub required this run.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 12 Morning.

Informational only — not an official warning. This is a morning desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:13 PM PDT on October 13, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts.

October 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Flood Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Friday, October 2, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Friday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 2, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:36 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Friday through 1200 UTC Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

These are county- and ZIP-scale leftovers, not a mainland hurricane landfall. The live restoration ticket is yesterday’s water still in streets, basements, and low crossings in southwest Kansas and south-central Texas, not a new watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 11:17 UTC, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, issued 5:10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, September 30, for west-central Texas from near Fort Stockton to east of Abilene. It expired at midnight CDT Wednesday. It is not a Friday product.

No mesoscale discussions are in effect. The most recent is MD 2345, issued 1:32 p.m. CDT Thursday for southwestern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma. Watch probability was 5 percent. A couple of severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado were possible; a watch was not expected. That discussion has expired.

Thursday afternoon flood products have also expired. National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Emergency at 2:32 p.m. CDT for Dodge City and central Ford County, tagged catastrophic damage threat and a particularly dangerous situation, after 3 to 6 inches of rain with another 3 to 5 inches possible. That warning ran until 5:30 p.m. CDT. Separate Dodge City warnings covered southwestern Gray, southern Haskell, northwestern Meade, and northeastern Seward counties until 6:00 p.m. CDT, and northwestern Ford County until 5:15 p.m. CDT. Topeka warnings covered Geary and northwestern Morris until 7:00 p.m. CDT, including Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 302 and 310 and 315, and a continuation for Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, and neighboring Riley, Pottawatomie, Nemaha, and Jackson counties until 5:00 p.m. CDT. Wichita covered northeastern McPherson and northwestern Marion until 8:00 p.m. CDT, considerable threat, with up to 3 inches already down and another 3 possible.

In Texas, Austin/San Antonio kept a Flash Flood Warning until 7:00 p.m. CDT for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties. Emergency management reported flooding and numerous low-water crossings closed. San Antonio, Schertz, Converse, Pleasanton, Floresville, and neighboring towns were in the polygon. Between 1 and 4 inches had fallen. Shreveport covered northwestern Cherokee and central Smith counties, including Tyler and Jacksonville, until 6:30 p.m. CDT. None of those polygons are still in force this morning.

Hotspot 1 — Dodge City and central Kansas water, after the emergency

The morning desk is an aftermath desk. Dodge City and central Ford County took the highest language NWS uses for flash flooding: emergency, catastrophic, seek higher ground. Junction City, Manhattan, and the McPherson–Marion line were the second story, with I-70 in the Topeka polygon. SPC’s filtered report board for the 12Z Thursday to 12Z Friday window did not log a tornado or hail report. The only wind reports are two ASOS gusts at Garden City (KGCK), 3 miles northwest of Pierceville in Finney County: 58 mph at 1754 UTC and 59 mph at 1802 UTC. That is sub-severe on the usual 58 mph severe-wind threshold only by a mile of rounding, and it is not a damage survey.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction, drying, and content work in Ford County and along the I-70 corridor in Geary and Riley counties are already on the clock from Thursday afternoon, not from a Friday warning. Photograph standing water and closed crossings only if it is safe. Do not treat an expired emergency as a live warning, and do not treat an expired warning as a clean street.

Hotspot 2 — San Antonio and south Texas water, then a Saturday Gulf Coast slight

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall product still posted on the public page this morning is the overnight update, issued 0036 UTC Friday and valid 01Z to 12Z Friday. That window has expired. It held a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern Plains, with the greatest rates in southern and central Texas and a broader excessive-rainfall threat north into the Plains, the southern Great Lakes, and the far western Ohio Valley. Earlier Thursday discussion kept the Moderate from South Texas toward southeast Oklahoma, with ensemble means of 3 to 6 inches from the Austin–San Antonio metro into South Texas and higher-end local maxima above 8 to 10 inches in the wettest scenarios. A Marginal covered the Florida east coast from Miami to the Space Coast for isolated urban rates over an inch an hour.

The next flood overlay already on the board is Day 2, updated 0749 UTC Friday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast. Broad southerly flow off the Gulf pumps tropical moisture north, with precipitable water expected to exceed 2.5 inches. The Slight was expanded west to include the Houston metro in coordination with the Houston forecast office. New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, and Pensacola sit in the same Saturday afternoon language. That is tomorrow’s staffing note, not this morning’s warning.

Restoration read: San Antonio and Bexar County are Thursday’s observed flood, closed crossings, and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water got inside. Houston and the central Gulf Coast are a Saturday watch-item if the Slight verifies. Do not send the same crew to both stories.

Hotspot 3 — Mid-Atlantic gusts that stay below a risk area

SPC’s Friday discussion puts a progressive stream of westerlies over the northern third of the country. An extensive cold front continues east-southeast, reaching the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by this evening and otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the front and stay common on the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

As the front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva later this evening, effective shear of 35 knots or more will exist, and to a lesser extent southwest toward the Appalachians and the Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near and ahead of the front if there is enough sun and modest destabilization. Moist-profile, subsidence-related poor lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms. That is why the categorical map is blank. It is not a Slight Risk and it is not a watch.

Restoration read: isolated tree and service-drop work is possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Delmarva if a cell gusts. Do not stage a regional wind event on a no-risk outlook.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-cycle LSR board, covering 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday, is empty: no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The Thursday 12Z-to-12Z board is the Garden City pair only. The damage that already looks like a ticket is the flood language, not the LSR list: the Dodge City emergency, the Manhattan–Junction City observed flooding, and the San Antonio low-water crossings.

National Hurricane Center, 2:00 a.m. MST Friday advisory on Hurricane Rachel: the center was near 19.4°N, 110.4°W, moving west at 5 mph, maximum sustained winds 115 mph, minimum pressure 955 mb. Rachel has weakened slightly and turned westward, south of Baja California Sur. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones on the 8:00 a.m. EDT Friday outlook. Tropical Storm Nolo is a Central Pacific system, with tropical-storm conditions in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. None of those is a mainland restoration staffing problem this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Dodge City / Ford County, KS	Flash-flood aftermath, 3–6 in already	Flash Flood Emergency expired 5:30 p.m. CDT Thu	Aftermath; not a live warning
Junction City, Manhattan, McPherson–Marion, KS	Training rain, I-70 crossings	Flash Flood Warnings expired Thu evening	Aftermath / drying clock
San Antonio / Bexar, Atascosa, Wilson	Observed flooding, closed crossings	Flash Flood Warning expired 7 p.m. CDT Thu	Aftermath
Garden City / Finney County, KS	58–59 mph ASOS gusts	SPC LSR only; no watch	Logged; no damage survey on the board
Coastal Mid-Atlantic / Delmarva / Cumberland Plateau	Isolated gusty storms	SPC Day 1: no severe areas	Possible this afternoon; not organized
Houston / central Gulf Coast	Heavy rain Saturday	WPC Day 2 Slight excessive rainfall	Tomorrow, not this morning
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches valid; WW 676 expired Wed midnight	Quiet
Atlantic / Rachel vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	Rachel west of Baja, no watches; Atlantic empty	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A blank Day 1 severe map is not a blank work board. Thursday’s catastrophic flash-flood language in Dodge City and the considerable-threat polygons in central Kansas and Bexar County are the jobs already started. Water inside a building from a Thursday afternoon warning is still a same-cycle extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock on Friday morning. The Garden City gusts are a local check, not a wind event.

For teams in Ford, Geary, Riley, McPherson, Marion, Bexar, Atascosa, or Wilson counties: confirm the warning has expired, then work the water that is already in. For teams on the Delmarva and the Cumberland Plateau: a couple of gusty storms are possible later today, below watch criteria. For Houston and the central Gulf Coast: Saturday’s Slight is the next flood overlay. Do not staff it as if it were live this morning.

What this is not

This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC Day 2, issued 10:58 p.m. CDT Thursday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Saturday’s summary: no severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Isolated lightning is possible over the Upper Midwest with a shortwave, and scattered thunderstorms are expected on the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas with weak shear. The work this morning, if crews are rolling, is Thursday’s water.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. If the Mid-Atlantic front produces a stronger storm, it will show up as a local warning or a special weather statement, not as a categorical risk area on the current package. The flood story shifts toward the central Gulf Coast on Saturday under the WPC Day 2 Slight. Rachel stays an eastern Pacific system moving west, away from the Baja coast.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, October 2, 2026, and the 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued Watch 676) and current mesoscale discussions (none; last MD 2345); SPC preliminary storm reports for October 1 and October 2; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid through 12Z Friday and Day 2 outlook updated 0749 UTC Friday; National Weather Service warning text for Dodge City, Topeka, Wichita, Austin/San Antonio, and Shreveport from Thursday afternoon; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Rachel Advisory 21 and the Atlantic tropical weather outlook.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday, October 1 afternoon storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 2, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Thursday, October 1, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Thursday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 1, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, issued at 7:53 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The work that verified was last evening in central Kansas, plus wind and heavy rain on the southern Plains. Today the national pulse is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a flood desk on the rain side.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and leftover water, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Remnant moisture from Polo is already folded into the Plains low. Restoration exposure this morning is survey work on a narrow Kansas tornado path, wind and pole damage in west and northwest Texas, and interior water where Wednesday night rain trained. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

Tornado Watch 675 covered central into northeast Kansas from 4:00 p.m. CDT Wednesday until 11:00 p.m. CDT. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676 covered west-central Texas from 5:10 p.m. CDT until midnight CDT, with damaging wind to 70 mph the primary threat and a tornado or two not ruled out. Both have expired. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:12 UTC Thursday, lists no watches currently valid. The most recent issuance was Watch 676.

The 0100 UTC Day 1 update Wednesday evening still carried a Slight Risk from Texas into southwest Oklahoma and over north-central Kansas, with a couple of tornadoes possible for another hour or two in north-central and northeast Kansas. By the 0600 UTC outlook, SPC had dropped all categorical severe areas. The 1300 UTC update keeps that call. Organized severe potential is low. Occasional gusty winds can still accompany storms from parts of Kansas southward into central and southern Texas. SPC also notes a low-end funnel chance near a weakening surface wave and the front over southern Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, and western and northern Oklahoma if cloud breaks allow heating. That is not a watch, and it is not a categorical risk.

What is still live is the rain. The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued at 2:52 a.m. EDT Thursday keeps a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains today. A Slight Risk covers parts of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Great Lakes. WPC language: numerous flash-flooding events are possible on the Moderate, and streams may flood, including debris flows in or near recently burned areas. The Slight is mainly localized flash flooding of urban streets, roads, and small streams. SPC’s own Day 1 text says the same thing in different words for eastern Oklahoma into north Texas, the Hill Country, and the Edwards Plateau: repetitive, locally heavy rainfall is the main concern as the rain shield shifts slowly east ahead of a surface low and cold front.

Just hit — central Kansas tornadoes

NWS Wichita has a preliminary event page for Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few low-topped supercells with very low cloud bases produced several tornadoes across Barton, Russell, and Lincoln counties ahead of a strong Plains low, in a tropical-like airmass tied in part to the remnants of Polo. Instability was not extreme. Low-level moisture was. Wichita’s summary: no significant damage or injuries reported.

SPC local storm reports for the period ending 11:59 UTC Thursday list the sequence. Storm-chaser video of a tornado 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County at 20:49 UTC, then 1 mile southeast of Ash Valley at 20:53 UTC. Barton County followed: Olmitz at 21:52 UTC, Galatia at 21:58 UTC, several brief touchdowns west and northwest of Susank between 22:01 and 22:10 UTC, with tornado damage to some outbuildings 4 miles north-northwest of Susank. Russell County: a rope tornado 3 miles east of Bunker Hill, described as 3 miles west of Dorrance and north of I-70, at 22:51 UTC, then a spotter tornado 6 miles south of Lucas at 23:24 UTC. Lincoln County: an elephant-trunk tornado 3 miles east of Lucas at 23:39 UTC, Sylvan Grove at 23:43 and 23:53 UTC, a multi-vortex 4 miles south of Ash Grove at 00:01 UTC. A brief touchdown 2 miles southeast of Victor in Mitchell County at 00:23 UTC is the last tornado LSR on the board. NWS Wichita also issued a confirmed tornado warning for southwestern Russell and northwestern Barton counties around 4:13 p.m. CDT, with a spotter tornado south of Milberger.

Restoration read: this is a survey corridor, not a regional wind event. Outbuildings near Susank are the damage note on the filtered LSR list. Treat Barton, Russell, and Lincoln as the counties to check for roof punctures, farm structures, and tree-on-line calls. Do not staff it as a citywide loss. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The path language from chasers and radar estimates is preliminary.

Just hit — Texas wind, and one Florida Keys note

The same LSR board has no hail reports. Wind is west and northwest Texas, mostly after dark. At least two power poles broken near the base 6 miles north-northwest of Tubbs Corner in Crane County around 20:40 UTC. A measured 58 mph gust at Clayton, New Mexico, at 22:40 UTC. One power pole and line down 1 mile northeast of Roscoe in Nolan County at 23:46 UTC. A 60 mph observer gust 24 miles south of Ozona in Crockett County at 01:06 UTC. A 64 mph gust 10 miles southwest of Paducah in Cottle County at 01:20 UTC. A 60 mph gust 4 miles south-southeast of Estelline in Hall County at 01:29 UTC. A 68 mph gust 4 miles west of Rotan in Fisher County at 02:50 UTC, the strongest measured wind on the board.

That is pole, line, and outbuilding work in the Concho Valley and Rolling Plains, consistent with Watch 676’s wind threat before it expired at midnight. Today’s SPC report page, which opens at 12:00 UTC Thursday, has no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

One non-Plains tornado LSR sits earlier on Wednesday’s board, not in the overnight window: 16:00 UTC, 2 miles southwest of Rock Harbor in Monroe County, Florida. Preliminary highly localized damage to one residence in the Silver Shores community between Tavernier and Rock Harbor, time approximate, investigated by the emergency manager. That is a single-structure note, not a Plains-style outbreak.

Hotspot this morning — Southern Plains rain

SPC describes extensive convection from eastern Oklahoma into north Texas and southwestward into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, with a few stronger elements still ongoing at outlook time. The shield should keep a gradual eastward shift through the day on warm advection ahead of the surface low and cold front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain limit heating. Low-level winds are expected to weaken. Gusty winds can still occur. The severe ceiling is low. The water ceiling is not.

Wednesday’s WPC Day 1 Moderate, valid through 12 UTC Thursday, already targeted the Concho Valley, North Texas west of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country between San Angelo and Fort Worth, the Red River Valley, and a second Moderate from north-central Kansas through southeast Nebraska into western Iowa, including the Omaha and Des Moines corridors, with 2 to 4 inches and local amounts higher where cells trained on the warm front. Thursday’s new Moderate stays on the Southern Plains as Gulf moisture pools along the front. Cities and counties to watch for water, not for a new severe watch: San Angelo, Abilene, the Hill Country approaches to Fort Worth, southeast Oklahoma, and the Red River counties. Central Plains and western Iowa are the leftover Slight, where Wednesday night rain may already be in streets and small streams.

Restoration read: rain first. Stage extractors and drying equipment where flash-flood warnings or flooded intersections verify, especially on soils that took rain yesterday. A 58 to 68 mph gust is roof, siding, and service-drop work in the counties that already reported poles. A funnel or brief spin-up near the Kansas–Oklahoma boundary, if one occurs, is a local survey, not a second Watch 675. Do not send the Kansas tornado crew and the Texas water crew as if they are the same ticket.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Barton, Russell, Lincoln, Mitchell KS	Tornado path, outbuildings	Watch 675 expired 11 p.m. CDT	Just hit; no significant damage reported
West-central and northwest Texas	Wind, poles, lines	Watch 676 expired midnight CDT	Just hit; 68 mph Rotan
Eastern OK / north TX / Hill Country	Heavy rain, isolated gusts	No severe areas; WPC Moderate flood	Live rain shield
Southern KS / TX Panhandle / western OK	Gusty wind, small hail, funnel chance	No categorical risk	Conditional this afternoon
Central Plains into western Iowa	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Overnight water, still draining
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling cyclone	Polo remnants inland	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 to 68 mph is roof, gutter, tree, and service-drop work, already logged in Crane, Nolan, Cottle, Hall, and Fisher counties. A tornado with no significant damage reported is still a county check: farm buildings and a few roofs can sit outside the first NWS summary. Heavy rain on a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk is wet drywall and a 24 to 48 hour mold clock if water got inside overnight. Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa water from the warm-front train is yesterday’s ticket still moving through town.

For teams on the Southern Plains: the severe watch is over. The flood risk is not. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on low-water crossings west of Fort Worth and through the Hill Country.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products overnight included hurricane conditions in offshore waters of southwest Mexico, not a new U.S. land threat. Polo’s remnants are already in the Plains pattern. The work this morning, where it verifies, is scattered: a tornado survey in central Kansas, pole and roof calls in west Texas, and flooded intersections where the Southern Plains rain shield sits. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 4–8 outlook, issued 4:00 a.m. CDT, does not flag an organized severe episode for the next several days. A large surface high dominates from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast early next week. An isolated severe chance returns to the conversation around Tuesday from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska as a front drops southeast, then shifts toward the mid-Missouri Valley Wednesday. That is not today’s desk. WPC already flags a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on parts of the Southern Plains for Friday, and a Slight from the central Gulf Coast through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians on Saturday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the morning Quiet Pulse holds if a warning cluster fires on the Texas rain shield.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook, 1300 UTC Thursday, October 1, 2026, and the 0100 UTC and 0600 UTC updates; SPC current watches page (no watches valid; Watch 675 and Watch 676 expired); SPC preliminary local storm reports for September 30 and October 1; NWS Wichita event summary for the September 30 central Kansas tornadoes; Weather Prediction Center short-range forecast discussion, 2:52 a.m. EDT October 1, and the Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook covering the overnight Moderate on the Plains and Corn Belt. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 30 afternoon storm updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 1, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The organized desk is back on the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s last advisory on Polo said the remnants dissipated over northwestern Mexico. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven roof and tree work on the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, a conditional tornado window on the Kansas warm front, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC outlook (issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, valid 1300 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) upgrades Day 1 to a Slight Risk over about 82,000 square miles covering parts of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and a separate corridor through central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska. A broader Marginal wraps Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Wichita, Norman, and Midland. Forecasters Guyer and Bentley: thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A few tornadoes and localized wind damage are also possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page last listed Watch 674 as the most recently issued product; that watch is not today’s product and is not in effect this morning. Any new watch this afternoon would be a new number. Today’s SPC local-storm-report board (1200 UTC Wednesday through 1159 UTC Thursday) is empty as of this desk. That is expected before the diurnal window.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches run 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley, with a 2–4 inch, locally 6 inch footprint from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines south of I-80.

Overnight into this morning

Tuesday night’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board is the just-hit file. Two tornado reports came in from the Texas Panhandle after midnight UTC: a social-media video tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County at 0012 UTC (7:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday), position estimated via radar by NWS Amarillo; and a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County at 0245 UTC (9:45 p.m. CDT), reported south of State Highway 335 west of I-27, on the ground 3–4 minutes and then roped out. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

Severe wind also verified on the same night: 67 mph at Roswell Air Center (KROW) in Chaves County, New Mexico, at 0033 UTC; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell at 0037 UTC; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas, at 0324 UTC, with additional measured gusts near 59 mph around 10:22 p.m. CDT. No hail reports were logged on that board. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already had the Southwest flood-and-Marginal frame; last night added the Panhandle tornado and New Mexico/west Texas wind tickets.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This is the higher-confidence diurnal severe corridor. SPC expects early-day convection across the southern Plains to weaken or shift north by early afternoon, then redevelop late afternoon into evening ahead of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Heating of a very moist airmass should push MLCAPE near or above 1,500 J/kg from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Supercells are possible at first. Front-parallel flow and increasing coverage favor a more linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises in the moist environment.

Cities and counties to watch: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Midland on the Marginal fringe, and the Edwards Plateau counties that sit under the Slight contour. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before the late-afternoon initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

SPC upgraded this corridor on the 1300 UTC package. A rather strong low-level jet (50-plus knots diurnally) is forecast to shift northeast across central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska or southwest Iowa by evening. Destabilization near the warm front may stay weak because of clouds, ongoing rain, and poor mid-level lapse rates. The upgrade is about 0–1 km and 0–3 km wind profiles that stay supercell-conducive even if CAPE stays muted. Multiple tornadoes are treated as a viable possibility, not a high-confidence outbreak.

Cities to watch: Topeka under the Slight population list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; the I-70 and Kansas River counties; the Nebraska state-line counties toward Omaha. Flood Watch language was already in play overnight for parts of north-central and northeast Kansas through Thursday afternoon, with 2–4 inches widespread and locally around 6 inches in the wetter cores.

Restoration read: this is the tornado-and-water overlap. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. Training rain on the same warm front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Do not send the same crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, is the working range, with two heavy periods: morning and again in the evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with some repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop and the flash-flood signal cuts off. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Claude and Randall County, Texas, tornado reports and the Roswell / Denver City wind gusts are last night’s tickets. They sit under yesterday’s Marginal from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is farther east and north: the southwest Oklahoma–northwest Texas–Edwards Plateau wind corridor, the Kansas warm-front tornado window, and the Moderate flood footprints on the southern Plains and the Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa axis.

Polo is not a U.S. landfall desk this morning. NHC’s last forecast/advisory (number 38, 0300 UTC Wednesday) placed the remnants near 30.5°N 108.0°W over northwestern Mexico and forecast dissipation by 12Z Wednesday. Hanna is an open-Atlantic tropical storm well east of the mainland. Neither is a restoration staffing problem for the CONUS this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight	Afternoon–tonight initiation
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	A few tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + WPC Moderate flood	Conditional; no watch yet
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Morning and evening pulses
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo dissipated over NW Mexico	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. It is the afternoon and evening probability field. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and the Kansas warm-front counties: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is gone over northwestern Mexico. Hanna is in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2 on the SPC page is already a Marginal. Watches, if they come, will most likely fire late afternoon on the southern Plains and early evening on the Kansas warm front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 1313 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260929 (overnight) and 20260930 (today, empty after 12Z); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center remnants of Polo forecast/advisory 38. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026