Tag: Kansas

Storm Updates: Kansas Flood Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Friday, October 2, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Friday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 2, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:36 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Friday through 1200 UTC Saturday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

These are county- and ZIP-scale leftovers, not a mainland hurricane landfall. The live restoration ticket is yesterday’s water still in streets, basements, and low crossings in southwest Kansas and south-central Texas, not a new watch. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 11:17 UTC, lists none. The most recently issued watch is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, issued 5:10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, September 30, for west-central Texas from near Fort Stockton to east of Abilene. It expired at midnight CDT Wednesday. It is not a Friday product.

No mesoscale discussions are in effect. The most recent is MD 2345, issued 1:32 p.m. CDT Thursday for southwestern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma. Watch probability was 5 percent. A couple of severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado were possible; a watch was not expected. That discussion has expired.

Thursday afternoon flood products have also expired. National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Emergency at 2:32 p.m. CDT for Dodge City and central Ford County, tagged catastrophic damage threat and a particularly dangerous situation, after 3 to 6 inches of rain with another 3 to 5 inches possible. That warning ran until 5:30 p.m. CDT. Separate Dodge City warnings covered southwestern Gray, southern Haskell, northwestern Meade, and northeastern Seward counties until 6:00 p.m. CDT, and northwestern Ford County until 5:15 p.m. CDT. Topeka warnings covered Geary and northwestern Morris until 7:00 p.m. CDT, including Interstate 70 between mile markers 291 and 302 and 310 and 315, and a continuation for Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, and neighboring Riley, Pottawatomie, Nemaha, and Jackson counties until 5:00 p.m. CDT. Wichita covered northeastern McPherson and northwestern Marion until 8:00 p.m. CDT, considerable threat, with up to 3 inches already down and another 3 possible.

In Texas, Austin/San Antonio kept a Flash Flood Warning until 7:00 p.m. CDT for northern Atascosa, Bexar, and western Wilson counties. Emergency management reported flooding and numerous low-water crossings closed. San Antonio, Schertz, Converse, Pleasanton, Floresville, and neighboring towns were in the polygon. Between 1 and 4 inches had fallen. Shreveport covered northwestern Cherokee and central Smith counties, including Tyler and Jacksonville, until 6:30 p.m. CDT. None of those polygons are still in force this morning.

Hotspot 1 — Dodge City and central Kansas water, after the emergency

The morning desk is an aftermath desk. Dodge City and central Ford County took the highest language NWS uses for flash flooding: emergency, catastrophic, seek higher ground. Junction City, Manhattan, and the McPherson–Marion line were the second story, with I-70 in the Topeka polygon. SPC’s filtered report board for the 12Z Thursday to 12Z Friday window did not log a tornado or hail report. The only wind reports are two ASOS gusts at Garden City (KGCK), 3 miles northwest of Pierceville in Finney County: 58 mph at 1754 UTC and 59 mph at 1802 UTC. That is sub-severe on the usual 58 mph severe-wind threshold only by a mile of rounding, and it is not a damage survey.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction, drying, and content work in Ford County and along the I-70 corridor in Geary and Riley counties are already on the clock from Thursday afternoon, not from a Friday warning. Photograph standing water and closed crossings only if it is safe. Do not treat an expired emergency as a live warning, and do not treat an expired warning as a clean street.

Hotspot 2 — San Antonio and south Texas water, then a Saturday Gulf Coast slight

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall product still posted on the public page this morning is the overnight update, issued 0036 UTC Friday and valid 01Z to 12Z Friday. That window has expired. It held a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the southern Plains, with the greatest rates in southern and central Texas and a broader excessive-rainfall threat north into the Plains, the southern Great Lakes, and the far western Ohio Valley. Earlier Thursday discussion kept the Moderate from South Texas toward southeast Oklahoma, with ensemble means of 3 to 6 inches from the Austin–San Antonio metro into South Texas and higher-end local maxima above 8 to 10 inches in the wettest scenarios. A Marginal covered the Florida east coast from Miami to the Space Coast for isolated urban rates over an inch an hour.

The next flood overlay already on the board is Day 2, updated 0749 UTC Friday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the central Gulf Coast. Broad southerly flow off the Gulf pumps tropical moisture north, with precipitable water expected to exceed 2.5 inches. The Slight was expanded west to include the Houston metro in coordination with the Houston forecast office. New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, and Pensacola sit in the same Saturday afternoon language. That is tomorrow’s staffing note, not this morning’s warning.

Restoration read: San Antonio and Bexar County are Thursday’s observed flood, closed crossings, and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water got inside. Houston and the central Gulf Coast are a Saturday watch-item if the Slight verifies. Do not send the same crew to both stories.

Hotspot 3 — Mid-Atlantic gusts that stay below a risk area

SPC’s Friday discussion puts a progressive stream of westerlies over the northern third of the country. An extensive cold front continues east-southeast, reaching the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by this evening and otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the front and stay common on the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

As the front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva later this evening, effective shear of 35 knots or more will exist, and to a lesser extent southwest toward the Appalachians and the Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near and ahead of the front if there is enough sun and modest destabilization. Moist-profile, subsidence-related poor lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms. That is why the categorical map is blank. It is not a Slight Risk and it is not a watch.

Restoration read: isolated tree and service-drop work is possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Delmarva if a cell gusts. Do not stage a regional wind event on a no-risk outlook.

Just hit

Today’s 12Z-cycle LSR board, covering 1200 UTC Friday through 1159 UTC Saturday, is empty: no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The Thursday 12Z-to-12Z board is the Garden City pair only. The damage that already looks like a ticket is the flood language, not the LSR list: the Dodge City emergency, the Manhattan–Junction City observed flooding, and the San Antonio low-water crossings.

National Hurricane Center, 2:00 a.m. MST Friday advisory on Hurricane Rachel: the center was near 19.4°N, 110.4°W, moving west at 5 mph, maximum sustained winds 115 mph, minimum pressure 955 mb. Rachel has weakened slightly and turned westward, south of Baja California Sur. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. The Atlantic basin has no tropical cyclones on the 8:00 a.m. EDT Friday outlook. Tropical Storm Nolo is a Central Pacific system, with tropical-storm conditions in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. None of those is a mainland restoration staffing problem this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Dodge City / Ford County, KS	Flash-flood aftermath, 3–6 in already	Flash Flood Emergency expired 5:30 p.m. CDT Thu	Aftermath; not a live warning
Junction City, Manhattan, McPherson–Marion, KS	Training rain, I-70 crossings	Flash Flood Warnings expired Thu evening	Aftermath / drying clock
San Antonio / Bexar, Atascosa, Wilson	Observed flooding, closed crossings	Flash Flood Warning expired 7 p.m. CDT Thu	Aftermath
Garden City / Finney County, KS	58–59 mph ASOS gusts	SPC LSR only; no watch	Logged; no damage survey on the board
Coastal Mid-Atlantic / Delmarva / Cumberland Plateau	Isolated gusty storms	SPC Day 1: no severe areas	Possible this afternoon; not organized
Houston / central Gulf Coast	Heavy rain Saturday	WPC Day 2 Slight excessive rainfall	Tomorrow, not this morning
CONUS severe watches	None	No watches valid; WW 676 expired Wed midnight	Quiet
Atlantic / Rachel vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	Rachel west of Baja, no watches; Atlantic empty	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A blank Day 1 severe map is not a blank work board. Thursday’s catastrophic flash-flood language in Dodge City and the considerable-threat polygons in central Kansas and Bexar County are the jobs already started. Water inside a building from a Thursday afternoon warning is still a same-cycle extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock on Friday morning. The Garden City gusts are a local check, not a wind event.

For teams in Ford, Geary, Riley, McPherson, Marion, Bexar, Atascosa, or Wilson counties: confirm the warning has expired, then work the water that is already in. For teams on the Delmarva and the Cumberland Plateau: a couple of gusty storms are possible later today, below watch criteria. For Houston and the central Gulf Coast: Saturday’s Slight is the next flood overlay. Do not staff it as if it were live this morning.

What this is not

This is not a severe-thunderstorm watch day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC Day 2, issued 10:58 p.m. CDT Thursday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, also has no severe thunderstorm areas. Saturday’s summary: no severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Isolated lightning is possible over the Upper Midwest with a shortwave, and scattered thunderstorms are expected on the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas with weak shear. The work this morning, if crews are rolling, is Thursday’s water.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. If the Mid-Atlantic front produces a stronger storm, it will show up as a local warning or a special weather statement, not as a categorical risk area on the current package. The flood story shifts toward the central Gulf Coast on Saturday under the WPC Day 2 Slight. Rachel stays an eastern Pacific system moving west, away from the Baja coast.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, October 2, 2026, and the 0600 UTC Day 2 outlook; SPC current watches (none valid; last issued Watch 676) and current mesoscale discussions (none; last MD 2345); SPC preliminary storm reports for October 1 and October 2; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid through 12Z Friday and Day 2 outlook updated 0749 UTC Friday; National Weather Service warning text for Dodge City, Topeka, Wichita, Austin/San Antonio, and Shreveport from Thursday afternoon; National Hurricane Center Hurricane Rachel Advisory 21 and the Atlantic tropical weather outlook.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday, October 1 afternoon storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 2, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Tornado Aftermath, Quiet Severe Pulse — Thursday, October 1, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Thursday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 1, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, issued at 7:53 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The work that verified was last evening in central Kansas, plus wind and heavy rain on the southern Plains. Today the national pulse is a Quiet Pulse on the severe side and a flood desk on the rain side.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and leftover water, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Remnant moisture from Polo is already folded into the Plains low. Restoration exposure this morning is survey work on a narrow Kansas tornado path, wind and pole damage in west and northwest Texas, and interior water where Wednesday night rain trained. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight, and what is still live

Tornado Watch 675 covered central into northeast Kansas from 4:00 p.m. CDT Wednesday until 11:00 p.m. CDT. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676 covered west-central Texas from 5:10 p.m. CDT until midnight CDT, with damaging wind to 70 mph the primary threat and a tornado or two not ruled out. Both have expired. SPC’s watch page, updated 12:12 UTC Thursday, lists no watches currently valid. The most recent issuance was Watch 676.

The 0100 UTC Day 1 update Wednesday evening still carried a Slight Risk from Texas into southwest Oklahoma and over north-central Kansas, with a couple of tornadoes possible for another hour or two in north-central and northeast Kansas. By the 0600 UTC outlook, SPC had dropped all categorical severe areas. The 1300 UTC update keeps that call. Organized severe potential is low. Occasional gusty winds can still accompany storms from parts of Kansas southward into central and southern Texas. SPC also notes a low-end funnel chance near a weakening surface wave and the front over southern Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, and western and northern Oklahoma if cloud breaks allow heating. That is not a watch, and it is not a categorical risk.

What is still live is the rain. The Weather Prediction Center short-range discussion issued at 2:52 a.m. EDT Thursday keeps a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains today. A Slight Risk covers parts of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Great Lakes. WPC language: numerous flash-flooding events are possible on the Moderate, and streams may flood, including debris flows in or near recently burned areas. The Slight is mainly localized flash flooding of urban streets, roads, and small streams. SPC’s own Day 1 text says the same thing in different words for eastern Oklahoma into north Texas, the Hill Country, and the Edwards Plateau: repetitive, locally heavy rainfall is the main concern as the rain shield shifts slowly east ahead of a surface low and cold front.

Just hit — central Kansas tornadoes

NWS Wichita has a preliminary event page for Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few low-topped supercells with very low cloud bases produced several tornadoes across Barton, Russell, and Lincoln counties ahead of a strong Plains low, in a tropical-like airmass tied in part to the remnants of Polo. Instability was not extreme. Low-level moisture was. Wichita’s summary: no significant damage or injuries reported.

SPC local storm reports for the period ending 11:59 UTC Thursday list the sequence. Storm-chaser video of a tornado 3 miles south-southwest of Ash Valley in Pawnee County at 20:49 UTC, then 1 mile southeast of Ash Valley at 20:53 UTC. Barton County followed: Olmitz at 21:52 UTC, Galatia at 21:58 UTC, several brief touchdowns west and northwest of Susank between 22:01 and 22:10 UTC, with tornado damage to some outbuildings 4 miles north-northwest of Susank. Russell County: a rope tornado 3 miles east of Bunker Hill, described as 3 miles west of Dorrance and north of I-70, at 22:51 UTC, then a spotter tornado 6 miles south of Lucas at 23:24 UTC. Lincoln County: an elephant-trunk tornado 3 miles east of Lucas at 23:39 UTC, Sylvan Grove at 23:43 and 23:53 UTC, a multi-vortex 4 miles south of Ash Grove at 00:01 UTC. A brief touchdown 2 miles southeast of Victor in Mitchell County at 00:23 UTC is the last tornado LSR on the board. NWS Wichita also issued a confirmed tornado warning for southwestern Russell and northwestern Barton counties around 4:13 p.m. CDT, with a spotter tornado south of Milberger.

Restoration read: this is a survey corridor, not a regional wind event. Outbuildings near Susank are the damage note on the filtered LSR list. Treat Barton, Russell, and Lincoln as the counties to check for roof punctures, farm structures, and tree-on-line calls. Do not staff it as a citywide loss. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The path language from chasers and radar estimates is preliminary.

Just hit — Texas wind, and one Florida Keys note

The same LSR board has no hail reports. Wind is west and northwest Texas, mostly after dark. At least two power poles broken near the base 6 miles north-northwest of Tubbs Corner in Crane County around 20:40 UTC. A measured 58 mph gust at Clayton, New Mexico, at 22:40 UTC. One power pole and line down 1 mile northeast of Roscoe in Nolan County at 23:46 UTC. A 60 mph observer gust 24 miles south of Ozona in Crockett County at 01:06 UTC. A 64 mph gust 10 miles southwest of Paducah in Cottle County at 01:20 UTC. A 60 mph gust 4 miles south-southeast of Estelline in Hall County at 01:29 UTC. A 68 mph gust 4 miles west of Rotan in Fisher County at 02:50 UTC, the strongest measured wind on the board.

That is pole, line, and outbuilding work in the Concho Valley and Rolling Plains, consistent with Watch 676’s wind threat before it expired at midnight. Today’s SPC report page, which opens at 12:00 UTC Thursday, has no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this desk.

One non-Plains tornado LSR sits earlier on Wednesday’s board, not in the overnight window: 16:00 UTC, 2 miles southwest of Rock Harbor in Monroe County, Florida. Preliminary highly localized damage to one residence in the Silver Shores community between Tavernier and Rock Harbor, time approximate, investigated by the emergency manager. That is a single-structure note, not a Plains-style outbreak.

Hotspot this morning — Southern Plains rain

SPC describes extensive convection from eastern Oklahoma into north Texas and southwestward into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, with a few stronger elements still ongoing at outlook time. The shield should keep a gradual eastward shift through the day on warm advection ahead of the surface low and cold front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain limit heating. Low-level winds are expected to weaken. Gusty winds can still occur. The severe ceiling is low. The water ceiling is not.

Wednesday’s WPC Day 1 Moderate, valid through 12 UTC Thursday, already targeted the Concho Valley, North Texas west of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country between San Angelo and Fort Worth, the Red River Valley, and a second Moderate from north-central Kansas through southeast Nebraska into western Iowa, including the Omaha and Des Moines corridors, with 2 to 4 inches and local amounts higher where cells trained on the warm front. Thursday’s new Moderate stays on the Southern Plains as Gulf moisture pools along the front. Cities and counties to watch for water, not for a new severe watch: San Angelo, Abilene, the Hill Country approaches to Fort Worth, southeast Oklahoma, and the Red River counties. Central Plains and western Iowa are the leftover Slight, where Wednesday night rain may already be in streets and small streams.

Restoration read: rain first. Stage extractors and drying equipment where flash-flood warnings or flooded intersections verify, especially on soils that took rain yesterday. A 58 to 68 mph gust is roof, siding, and service-drop work in the counties that already reported poles. A funnel or brief spin-up near the Kansas–Oklahoma boundary, if one occurs, is a local survey, not a second Watch 675. Do not send the Kansas tornado crew and the Texas water crew as if they are the same ticket.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Barton, Russell, Lincoln, Mitchell KS	Tornado path, outbuildings	Watch 675 expired 11 p.m. CDT	Just hit; no significant damage reported
West-central and northwest Texas	Wind, poles, lines	Watch 676 expired midnight CDT	Just hit; 68 mph Rotan
Eastern OK / north TX / Hill Country	Heavy rain, isolated gusts	No severe areas; WPC Moderate flood	Live rain shield
Southern KS / TX Panhandle / western OK	Gusty wind, small hail, funnel chance	No categorical risk	Conditional this afternoon
Central Plains into western Iowa	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Overnight water, still draining
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling cyclone	Polo remnants inland	Quiet on the coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 to 68 mph is roof, gutter, tree, and service-drop work, already logged in Crane, Nolan, Cottle, Hall, and Fisher counties. A tornado with no significant damage reported is still a county check: farm buildings and a few roofs can sit outside the first NWS summary. Heavy rain on a Moderate excessive-rainfall risk is wet drywall and a 24 to 48 hour mold clock if water got inside overnight. Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa water from the warm-front train is yesterday’s ticket still moving through town.

For teams on the Southern Plains: the severe watch is over. The flood risk is not. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on low-water crossings west of Fort Worth and through the Hill Country.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products overnight included hurricane conditions in offshore waters of southwest Mexico, not a new U.S. land threat. Polo’s remnants are already in the Plains pattern. The work this morning, where it verifies, is scattered: a tornado survey in central Kansas, pole and roof calls in west Texas, and flooded intersections where the Southern Plains rain shield sits. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 4–8 outlook, issued 4:00 a.m. CDT, does not flag an organized severe episode for the next several days. A large surface high dominates from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast early next week. An isolated severe chance returns to the conversation around Tuesday from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska as a front drops southeast, then shifts toward the mid-Missouri Valley Wednesday. That is not today’s desk. WPC already flags a Slight excessive-rainfall risk on parts of the Southern Plains for Friday, and a Slight from the central Gulf Coast through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians on Saturday. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the morning Quiet Pulse holds if a warning cluster fires on the Texas rain shield.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook, 1300 UTC Thursday, October 1, 2026, and the 0100 UTC and 0600 UTC updates; SPC current watches page (no watches valid; Watch 675 and Watch 676 expired); SPC preliminary local storm reports for September 30 and October 1; NWS Wichita event summary for the September 30 central Kansas tornadoes; Weather Prediction Center short-range forecast discussion, 2:52 a.m. EDT October 1, and the Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook covering the overnight Moderate on the Plains and Corn Belt. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 30 afternoon storm updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 1, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The organized desk is back on the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s last advisory on Polo said the remnants dissipated over northwestern Mexico. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven roof and tree work on the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, a conditional tornado window on the Kansas warm front, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC outlook (issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, valid 1300 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) upgrades Day 1 to a Slight Risk over about 82,000 square miles covering parts of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and a separate corridor through central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska. A broader Marginal wraps Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Wichita, Norman, and Midland. Forecasters Guyer and Bentley: thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A few tornadoes and localized wind damage are also possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page last listed Watch 674 as the most recently issued product; that watch is not today’s product and is not in effect this morning. Any new watch this afternoon would be a new number. Today’s SPC local-storm-report board (1200 UTC Wednesday through 1159 UTC Thursday) is empty as of this desk. That is expected before the diurnal window.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches run 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley, with a 2–4 inch, locally 6 inch footprint from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines south of I-80.

Overnight into this morning

Tuesday night’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board is the just-hit file. Two tornado reports came in from the Texas Panhandle after midnight UTC: a social-media video tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County at 0012 UTC (7:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday), position estimated via radar by NWS Amarillo; and a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County at 0245 UTC (9:45 p.m. CDT), reported south of State Highway 335 west of I-27, on the ground 3–4 minutes and then roped out. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

Severe wind also verified on the same night: 67 mph at Roswell Air Center (KROW) in Chaves County, New Mexico, at 0033 UTC; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell at 0037 UTC; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas, at 0324 UTC, with additional measured gusts near 59 mph around 10:22 p.m. CDT. No hail reports were logged on that board. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already had the Southwest flood-and-Marginal frame; last night added the Panhandle tornado and New Mexico/west Texas wind tickets.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This is the higher-confidence diurnal severe corridor. SPC expects early-day convection across the southern Plains to weaken or shift north by early afternoon, then redevelop late afternoon into evening ahead of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Heating of a very moist airmass should push MLCAPE near or above 1,500 J/kg from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Supercells are possible at first. Front-parallel flow and increasing coverage favor a more linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises in the moist environment.

Cities and counties to watch: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Midland on the Marginal fringe, and the Edwards Plateau counties that sit under the Slight contour. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before the late-afternoon initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

SPC upgraded this corridor on the 1300 UTC package. A rather strong low-level jet (50-plus knots diurnally) is forecast to shift northeast across central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska or southwest Iowa by evening. Destabilization near the warm front may stay weak because of clouds, ongoing rain, and poor mid-level lapse rates. The upgrade is about 0–1 km and 0–3 km wind profiles that stay supercell-conducive even if CAPE stays muted. Multiple tornadoes are treated as a viable possibility, not a high-confidence outbreak.

Cities to watch: Topeka under the Slight population list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; the I-70 and Kansas River counties; the Nebraska state-line counties toward Omaha. Flood Watch language was already in play overnight for parts of north-central and northeast Kansas through Thursday afternoon, with 2–4 inches widespread and locally around 6 inches in the wetter cores.

Restoration read: this is the tornado-and-water overlap. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. Training rain on the same warm front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Do not send the same crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, is the working range, with two heavy periods: morning and again in the evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with some repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop and the flash-flood signal cuts off. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Claude and Randall County, Texas, tornado reports and the Roswell / Denver City wind gusts are last night’s tickets. They sit under yesterday’s Marginal from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is farther east and north: the southwest Oklahoma–northwest Texas–Edwards Plateau wind corridor, the Kansas warm-front tornado window, and the Moderate flood footprints on the southern Plains and the Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa axis.

Polo is not a U.S. landfall desk this morning. NHC’s last forecast/advisory (number 38, 0300 UTC Wednesday) placed the remnants near 30.5°N 108.0°W over northwestern Mexico and forecast dissipation by 12Z Wednesday. Hanna is an open-Atlantic tropical storm well east of the mainland. Neither is a restoration staffing problem for the CONUS this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight	Afternoon–tonight initiation
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	A few tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + WPC Moderate flood	Conditional; no watch yet
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Morning and evening pulses
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo dissipated over NW Mexico	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. It is the afternoon and evening probability field. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and the Kansas warm-front counties: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is gone over northwestern Mexico. Hanna is in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2 on the SPC page is already a Marginal. Watches, if they come, will most likely fire late afternoon on the southern Plains and early evening on the Kansas warm front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 1313 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260929 (overnight) and 20260930 (today, empty after 12Z); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center remnants of Polo forecast/advisory 38. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic High Wind, Southern Plains Marginal — Saturday, September 26, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Saturday, September 26, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet: no Storm Prediction Center convective watches are valid. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of isolated hail and strong outflow winds for western Oklahoma into northwest Texas late this afternoon into early evening. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risk pockets from southwest Iowa into northern Missouri and along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, with a broader Marginal overlay from the southern Plains into the central Plains.

The live work this morning is not a watch box. It is High Wind Warnings on the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from a strengthening coastal low, leftover water in north-central Kansas where a flash-flood warning was replaced by a flood advisory, and a few overnight local storm reports. These are county-scale thunderstorms and coastal wind, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven trees and service drops on the coast, isolated hail and outflow later on the southern Plains, and interior water where yesterday’s High Plains rain is still in the channel. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC current watches: none. Most recently issued watch was 0674, already expired. The 0655 AM CDT Day 1 discussion (Smith/Bentley) is explicit: morning showers and thunderstorms over the southern High Plains should dissipate, with new storm development around 21–23 UTC (4–6 p.m. CDT). Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible mainly 22z–02z. Elsewhere, SPC calls the severe environment quiescent.

WPC valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday: Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance from roughly southwest Iowa into northern Missouri, and a second Slight along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast from the Delmarva through Cape Cod and adjacent waters. A Marginal Risk covers a large southern-to-central Plains corridor plus a coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast swath.

National Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo are well out in the open Atlantic and are not a U.S. land threat this morning. Hurricane Nolo remains nearly stationary well south of the Big Island of Hawaii and is forecast to stay south of the islands; that is a Hawaii flood-and-wind desk, not a mainland landfall. Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Odalys and Polo are Mexico-waters storms, not CONUS landfalls.

Hotspot 1 — Mid-Atlantic and southern New England high wind

This is the live warning desk. National Weather Service Mount Holly holds a High Wind Warning until 6:00 a.m. EDT Sunday for Delaware beaches and coastal New Jersey counties including Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and Coastal Ocean. Language: north winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph; trees and power lines; widespread outages possible. Boston/Norton holds High Wind Warnings until 8:00 a.m. EDT Sunday for eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with northeast gusts 50–60 mph on the exposed coast and 50 mph inland over Kent and Providence counties. WPC’s coastal Slight excessive-rainfall risk sits under the same system: heaviest totals preferred offshore, but localized heavy rain can still reach the Jersey Shore through southern New England.

Cities and counties to watch: Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Ocean City, Rehoboth Beach, Sandy Hook; Boston, Quincy, Plymouth, New Bedford, Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard; Providence, Warwick, Newport, Westerly.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tree crews, generators, and tarp kits before the next peak gust period tonight. Treat coastal ZIPs as possible interior-water jobs if the Slight rain overlay verifies on already-wet ground. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas (afternoon Marginal)

SPC’s only categorical severe area today. A High Plains upper trough and a smaller-scale jet over the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma maintain a lee trough and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Morning convection is expected to die. New storms 21–23 UTC from south-central Kansas through western Oklahoma and west/northwest Texas. Adequately strong deep-layer shear supports a few organized cells capable of isolated large hail and severe outflow, mainly 22z–02z. Lubbock’s hazardous-weather outlook already flags isolated afternoon and evening storms off the Caprock with gusts to 65 mph and hail to quarter size.

Restoration read: this is a late-day hail and wind ticket, not a morning watch. Do not pre-position as if a Slight or Enhanced is up. Staff local warnings if they fire after 4 p.m. CDT.

Hotspot 3 — Leftover High Plains water and central Plains flood overlay

NWS Hastings replaced a flash-flood warning with a Flood Advisory through 1:00 p.m. CDT for parts of Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, and Smith Counties in north-central Kansas. That is yesterday’s rain still in the ditch, not a new MCS. WPC keeps a Slight excessive-rainfall risk over southwest Iowa into northern Missouri and a Marginal from Oklahoma and West Texas north across Kansas toward the eastern Dakotas. Friday afternoon’s New Mexico flood pulse is no longer the national Slight; treat Cibola and Santa Fe as aftermath unless a new warning posts.

Great Falls holds a High Wind Warning until noon MDT for Glacier, Toole, and Pondera High Plains zones — westerly 30–50 mph, gusts to 70. That is a plains wind event, not the SPC Marginal.

Just hit

Overnight and Friday evening local storm reports, all preliminary: landspout near Wilmore in Comanche County, Kansas; one-inch hail that cracked windshields at Tecolote and near Romeroville in San Miguel County, New Mexico; 59–61 mph measured gusts in Liberty and Pondera Counties, Montana. Earlier Friday into last night on the Texas side of the same High Plains corridor: 60 mph at Memphis in Hall County, an estimated 60 mph north of Study Butte, and a roof section blown onto a road in Terlingua, Brewster County. No tornado watch fired. No convective watch is live this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Coastal NJ / DE / southern New England	Damaging wind, trees, outages, localized heavy rain	High Wind Warning + WPC Slight (coast)	Live warnings through Sunday morning
Western OK / northwest TX / south-central KS	Isolated hail, severe outflow	SPC Marginal 22z–02z	Afternoon–evening development
SW Iowa / northern Missouri	Training rain, flash flood	WPC Slight	Today into tonight
North-central Kansas (Jewell–Smith)	Residual flooding	Flood Advisory to 1 p.m. CDT	Aftermath / still in channel
Northern MT High Plains	High wind gusts to 70 mph	High Wind Warning to noon MDT	Live, expires midday
Hawaii (Nolo)	Flood watch Big Island / Maui County	NHC hurricane well south of islands	Hawaii desk only
U.S. mainland tropical	No landfalling hurricane	Fay / Gonzalo open Atlantic	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Coastal gusts of 50–60 mph are tree-on-structure, siding, gutter, and service-drop work. Stage before dark on the Jersey Shore and southern New England, not after the first outage ticket. The Oklahoma–Texas Marginal is a late-day hail and wind desk: a few cells, not a regional outbreak. Kansas flood-advisory counties are already wet — extraction and drying, not a new watch. Hawaii Nolo stays off the mainland board.

Property owners: photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown at low-water crossings in the WPC Slight counties.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a coastal wind swath through a New Jersey or Massachusetts county, a late-day hail core in western Oklahoma, leftover water in a Kansas creek. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Coastal High Wind Warnings run through early Sunday. The southern Plains Marginal is a same-day afternoon problem, not an overnight watch. SPC Day 2 language on the hazard matrix is No Severe for Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s High Wind Warning is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches (none valid); SPC local storm reports for 1200 UTC Sep 25–1159 UTC Sep 26; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid 12Z Sep 26–12Z Sep 27; National Weather Service warning text from Mount Holly, Boston/Norton, Great Falls, Hastings, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center public advisories for Nolo, Fay, and Gonzalo. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 25 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 26, 2026

Storm Updates: New Mexico–Plains Flood Slight, Dakotas Hail Pulse — Thursday, September 24, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Thursday, September 24, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe corridor from Wednesday’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk did verify on the Local Storm Report board — a brief tornado west of Hettinger and baseball-size hail near South Heart, North Dakota. Convective watches are not currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, valid 241200Z–251200Z, carries no categorical severe thunderstorm areas. Isolated stronger storms with hail or gusty winds remain possible late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas.

The water desk is still the national headline, not wind. Weather Prediction Center short-range language this morning keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into the south-central Plains, with a broader Marginal Risk from the Four Corners into the central Plains as leftover tropical moisture and embedded shortwaves keep training cells possible on already wet ground. These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover water in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, isolated hail and wind on the Dakotas just-hit pile, and a Hawaii watch for Tropical Storm Nolo well south of the Big Island.

Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, a Sunday-night eastern Colorado and western Kansas product that expired days ago. Yesterday’s western Dakotas and southern Appalachians Marginal Risk is off the Day 1 map. The 0600 UTC discussion from Guyer and Thornton is plain: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. The same discussion still flags pockets of moderate destabilization into peak heating across southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and the southern High Plains.

The SPC overview hazard matrix later this morning lists Thursday as a Marginal severe day. Treat that as the later-cycle read against the published 0600 UTC text of “no severe thunderstorm areas forecast.” Either way, this is not a watch morning. Isolated hail or a damaging gust is the ceiling unless a new outlook or mesoscale discussion draws a tighter box this afternoon.

On the flood side, Wednesday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Moderate Risk over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and central and eastern New Mexico has rolled off the valid window. Thursday language from WPC’s short-range public discussion is a step down: Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into portions of the south-central Plains, Marginal Risk across much of the Four Corners into the central Plains. Soils are still saturated. Rates, not coverage, are the problem if a cell trains.

Hotspot 1 — New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas

This remains the water desk. Overnight, National Weather Service Dodge City issued a Flash Flood Warning for northwestern Grant, southeastern Hamilton, western Kearny, northeastern Morton, and eastern Stanton Counties in southwestern Kansas until 5:00 a.m. CDT. Radar-indicated totals of 2 to 3 inches were already on the ground at issuance, with another 1 to 2 inches possible. That warning is off the clock this morning. It is the signature of the same moisture plume that spent midweek over New Mexico.

WPC still expects scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday as large-scale forcing weakens but instability and embedded shortwave energy remain. Portions of New Mexico and Texas stay sensitive because of the multi-day rain. Localized 1-inch-per-hour rates on burn scars, arroyos, urban streets, and low water crossings are the first failures. A separate, lower-coverage pulse is possible in southeast Arizona under the same southwesterly mid-level flow.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on buildings that took water Tuesday and Wednesday, plus a new poor-drainage ticket if a cell parks on a ZIP that already failed. Do not treat the whole Moderate-Risk footprint from yesterday as still live. Staff the county that still has a warning, not the outline from Wednesday afternoon.

Hotspot 2 — Western North Dakota just-hit pile

Wednesday afternoon’s western Dakotas Marginal Risk produced the overnight LSR pile. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports for the 1200 UTC September 23 through 1159 UTC September 24 window include:

A brief tornado around 2236 UTC about 3 miles south-southwest of Bucyrus in Adams County, North Dakota, based on social-media video and radar, west of Hettinger. NWS Bismarck logged the location as approximate.
Quarter-size hail (1.00 inch) at New England, Hettinger County, at 2307 UTC.
Half-dollar hail (1.25 inches) about 3 miles southeast of Belfield, Stark County, at 2340 UTC.
Baseball-size hail (2.75 inches) about 2 miles southwest of South Heart, Stark County, at 2345 UTC.

Those are official preliminary LSRs, not social rumor. Hail that size breaks windows, dents siding, and wrecks HVAC fins. The tornado report is a one-minute touchdown, not a long-track event. Restoration work there is already a survey-and-tarp job, not a new watch.

Hotspot 3 — Southern High Plains scatter plus leftover wind reports

SPC’s Day 1 discussion leaves the door open for a few stronger, locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma and Kansas. That is isolated hail and gusty outflow, not a Slight Risk corridor. Yesterday’s board also carries a 58 mph thunderstorm gust 4 miles southeast of Frederick in Tillman County, Oklahoma, at 2158 UTC, and a tree down in Van Wert, Polk County, Georgia, at 2000 UTC. Those are scatter, not a line.

Farther east, an amplifying coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic and New England is a marine and coastal-flood story, not a convective watch. WPC flags coastal flooding, rip currents, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend. That is a different desk from the New Mexico flood pulse.

Tropical — Nolo south of Hawaii, not a mainland landfall

Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nolo. As of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday, Nolo was about 285 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and about 460 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, stationary, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 999 mb. Official language: Nolo is forecast to intensify into a hurricane late today and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. That is a Hawaii County and offshore-waters problem, not a Gulf or East Coast landfall. Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys remain in the eastern Pacific off Mexico. Tropical Storm Fay is in the open Atlantic well west-southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat.

Just hit

Wednesday’s live desk was still water over central and eastern New Mexico, with SPC trimmed to a western Dakotas Marginal. That Dakotas box verified overnight on hail and a brief tornado. The New Mexico Moderate flood risk has stepped down to Slight into the south-central Plains. Southwestern Kansas took a late-night flash-flood warning that expired at 5:00 a.m. CDT. No new convective watch fired overnight. Watch 674 is not today’s product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NM into TX/OK Panhandles and western KS	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Live flood overlay; KS FFW expired 5 a.m. CDT
SE AZ / southern NM / southern High Plains	Isolated hail, gusty wind, heavy rain	SPC 0600 UTC: no categorical area; isolated stronger storms possible	Afternoon–evening scatter
Western ND (Hettinger / Stark)	Hail damage, brief tornado	Yesterday Marginal; LSRs in	Just-hit / survey
Four Corners to central Plains	Isolated heavy rain	WPC Marginal excessive rainfall	Diurnal cells
East Coast marine / New England coast	Coastal flood, wind, heavy rain	WPC / OPC coastal low	Not a convective watch
Hawaii — Nolo	Tropical storm to hurricane risk south of the islands	CPHC TS Nolo, 50 mph	Watch Hawaii products, not mainland
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and the southern High Plains are still a water week. Saturated ground plus another Slight Risk means the next training cell is a wet-drywall and crawlspace ticket, not a surprise. Photograph and extract what already flooded before you chase a new ZIP. Southwestern Kansas counties that sat under last night’s warning should be treated as just-hit poor-drainage work until local offices drop the flood language.

Western North Dakota is a hail desk. Baseball stone southwest of South Heart is broken glass and bruised roofs. The Adams County tornado report is a narrow path. Staff it as a local damage survey. Do not read “tornado” on an LSR board as a regional event.

If the later SPC cycle firms a Marginal box over the southern High Plains, the work is still isolated hail and outflow, not a watch. Stage tarps only where a warning is live. Hawaii shops should follow Central Pacific Hurricane Center products on Nolo, not this CONUS flood pulse.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo and Odalys are eastern Pacific storms off Mexico. Fay is mid-Atlantic open water. Nolo is a Central Pacific storm still south of the Big Island. The CONUS work this morning is leftover flood water, a North Dakota hail pile, and a quiet watch board.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2, valid Friday, currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC still sees the moisture axis shifting east Friday into the south-central Plains and Midwest with another heavy-rain overlay possible. SPC Day 3 language returns a Marginal Risk later in the weekend as an upper trough works the central United States. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming Thursday’s quiet watch board is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, September 24, 2026; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0705 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports for 20260923 1200 UTC–20260924 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and short-range public discussion valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Saturday; National Weather Service Dodge City flash-flood warning text for southwestern Kansas; Central Pacific Hurricane Center / National Hurricane Center public products on Tropical Storm Nolo as of 2:00 a.m. HST Thursday.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Western Dakotas Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 24, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, Midwest Flood Leftovers — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker for September 20, 2026. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have all expired. The Storm Prediction Center’s 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible in a broader Marginal Risk from the southern Plains across the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

The flood story is leftover water, not a new Moderate Risk. Weather Prediction Center’s current Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is a Slight Risk over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, plus a separate Slight over the northern High Plains focused on southwest South Dakota. Flash Flood Warnings fired overnight into this morning from eastern Iowa and the Quad Cities through southeast Ohio and the Charleston–Huntington corridor in West Virginia.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood polygons. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm Fay is well southwest of the Azores. Tropical Storm Odalys is well southwest of Baja California. Verify the county warning at weather.gov before you roll.

What expired overnight vs what is live

Watch 670, issued Saturday afternoon over Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, expired at 0400 UTC Sunday (11:00 p.m. CDT Saturday). Watch 671 expired at the same hour. Watch 672, issued after 8:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expired at 0600 UTC Sunday (1:00 a.m. CDT). No convective watch is in effect as of this morning desk.

NWS warning text from Saturday evening still shows the pulse that those watches covered: a 61 mph gust at Childress, Texas; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over Childress and Collingsworth Counties in the Texas Panhandle; western Oklahoma counties including Harmon, Greer, and Beckham; west-central Kansas around Wichita, Wallace, Logan, and Greeley Counties with radar-indicated golf-ball hail; and a line that warned St. Joseph, Atchison, and neighboring Kansas–Missouri counties. Those products have expired. They are last night’s just-hit list, not today’s watch board.

SPC’s storm-report table for the new convective day (1200 UTC Sunday onward) showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs at the time of this desk. That is consistent with a quiet pre-dawn after the watches died. Afternoon initiation is the next check.

Hotspot 1 — Oklahoma Slight Risk, afternoon and evening

SPC: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma. A frontal zone that convection modulated overnight over the eastern Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will sag south. Mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints and heating support moderate buoyancy by mid-afternoon. Deep-layer shear is enough for organization.

The 1300 UTC outlook added an intensity Level-1 wind corridor over parts of southern Oklahoma where HREF/REFS guidance clustered 60–80 mph gusts on very steep 0–3 km lapse rates. Cities in or next to the Slight: Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Norman, Lawton, Wichita Falls. Storms are expected to develop from the Low Rolling Plains and Red River Valley and move northeast into central and eastern Oklahoma. Mixed mode early, with a chance the wind threat maximizes if a line segment organizes toward evening.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, glass, and tree crews for late afternoon, not after dark. Southern Oklahoma is the gust corridor if the Level-1 language verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas

A mid-level shortwave moves into the central High Plains today. Easterly low-level flow north of the front holds 50s dewpoints. Heating should remove inhibition by mid-to-late afternoon. Forecast soundings show straight hodographs and sizable CAPE in the hail-growth layer. A few supercells are the favored mode. Primary hazard is large hail, 1 to 2.5 inches, plus isolated severe gusts. Some lingering severe risk may drift into southeast Colorado late this evening and the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

Lamar sits inside the tighter probabilistic contour. Watch the I-70 and High Plains county warning areas from late afternoon. Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. Vehicle and roof claims, not a flood headline, unless a cell trains on a burn scar or a small basin.

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers

Yesterday’s WPC Moderate Risk over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana has been stepped down. The current Day 1 ERO, updated 0819 UTC Sunday and valid 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday, is a Slight Risk from southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri east into the Ohio Valley, with a second Slight over southwest South Dakota. Overnight convection is why Flash Flood Warnings were still live into Sunday morning for the Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids and eastern Iowa, Parkersburg–Athens, Hocking–Pickaway–Ross, and the Charleston–Huntington counties.

WPC language: the threat wanes from west to east this morning into early afternoon as the back edge of the rain moves off. Farther east, overnight convection near the Ohio River toward West Virginia terrain lowered flash-flood guidance. Some guidance rebuilds moderate-to-heavy rain later. Valley moisture supports locally 2–5 inch totals where cells train.

SPC also keeps a Marginal Risk from the Ozarks east into the Ohio Valley for isolated severe gusts and hail this afternoon south of a front near the I-70 corridor. That is a secondary wind desk, not the Slight.

Restoration read: Iowa, northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, southeast Ohio, and northwest West Virginia are extraction and drying work from last night. Check which county still has a warning. Do not treat the whole corridor as a new Moderate flood day.

Just hit

Saturday night’s organized pulse was the Kansas–Oklahoma–Texas Panhandle watch complex plus the Midwest and Ohio Valley rain. Documented hits in official warning text include the Childress airport gust near 61 mph and severe-warned storms over the eastern Panhandle, western Oklahoma, west-central Kansas hail cores, and the St. Joseph–Atchison line. Flood polygons stacked from eastern Iowa through the Ohio River counties overnight. Those tickets are already on the books.

Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma afternoon Slight and the High Plains hail corridor. The Midwest is aftermath plus a declining Slight flood overlay.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC level	Status this morning
Oklahoma / Red River	Severe wind, large hail	SPC Slight; Level-1 wind southern OK	Outlook — afternoon/evening
Eastern CO / far western KS	Large hail, isolated wind	SPC Slight	Outlook — mid/late afternoon
Ozarks to Ohio Valley	Isolated wind, hail	SPC Marginal	Outlook
SE Iowa / N Missouri / Ohio Valley	Flash flood leftover, urban water	WPC Slight ERO	Waning west to east
SW South Dakota / northern High Plains	Heavy rain	WPC Slight ERO	Today into tonight
Watches 670 / 671 / 672	Wind and hail Saturday night	Expired 0400–0600 UTC	Just-hit
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. land	Fay (Azores), Odalys (SW of Baja)	No U.S. land threat	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Oklahoma this afternoon is a wind-and-hail stage. If the southern Oklahoma Level-1 gust corridor verifies, expect roofs, siding, and trees in a relatively small footprint — staff it as county work, not a regional event. The High Plains Slight is hail first. Midwest and Ohio Valley crews already have water in buildings from Saturday night. The mold clock on those interiors started last night, not this afternoon.

Do not send the same crew to Tulsa hail and Cedar Rapids extraction without checking which county actually has a warning now. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall and not a Moderate flood day on the current WPC map. Fay and Odalys are named and far from U.S. land. Last night’s watches are closed. Today’s organized severe risk is two compact Slight areas plus a wide Marginal. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next official Day 1 convective update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. The front continues south through Oklahoma tonight. Isolated severe risk may linger into the Oklahoma Panhandle after dark. WPC flood risk over the Midwest should keep easing from west to east unless new training rebuilds on the Ohio Valley side. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300 UTC Slight is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 20, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (Watches 670, 671, 672 expired); SPC storm reports for 19–20 September 2026; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0819 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watch/warning text; National Hurricane Center public advisories for Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Odalys.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday, September 19 afternoon Storm Updates. Local flood polygons posted overnight live under the same Storm Tracker category.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Saturday, September 19, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down across the Carolinas and Upstate South Carolina, dumped 1.00–1.50-inch hail on the Utah Wasatch Front and Four Corners, and produced brief tornado or landspout reports near Fruit Heights and Uintah County, Utah. This morning the organized work is water: flash-flood warnings and just-hit rain of 3 to 7.5 inches in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, with a Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall still draped over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, plus a second Moderate pocket over southern Montana.

The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains, valid 1300Z Saturday through 1200Z Sunday. Summary language: scattered severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening, focused on Kansas. No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was #0669, now expired. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific. A subtropical Atlantic disturbance near the Azores is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is interior water where overnight cores trained, then late-day Kansas wind and hail if the Slight Risk verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No SPC severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is up at 12:23 UTC Saturday. Friday’s Carolina wind pulse and Utah/Four Corners convection are yesterday’s tickets now sitting as LSRs. What is still live is hydrologic: overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southern Fillmore County, Minnesota; Clayton and Fayette Counties, Iowa; and Dubuque, Jackson, Jo Daviess, and Stephenson Counties on the Iowa–Illinois line. La Crosse and Quad Cities language overnight cited 1–3 inches already down in the Iowa warnings and 3–7.5 inches in the Minnesota flood statements, with a mudslide reported on Highway 76 west of Caledonia and water over the road at Beaver Creek Valley State Park.

Flood Watches remain through Sunday morning across portions of southwest and south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. A separate Flood Watch covers south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, through Sunday afternoon, including burn-scar flash-flood language. Heat Advisories continue into this evening over parts of southeast Kansas and central through southwest Missouri, with heat-index values near 100–105°F — that is a crew-safety overlay on the same Plains corridor that later gets the Slight Risk.

Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)

This is today’s new severe desk. The 1300Z outlook, issued 7:25 a.m. CDT by Smith/Mead, places a Slight Risk over parts of the central Plains. The 15-percent hail contour covers about 34,700 square miles and 1.33 million people, with larger centers listed as Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, and Manhattan. The 15-percent wind contour is a bit larger and also takes in St. Joseph, Missouri. A categorical intensity-level-1 wind overlay (60–75 mph gusts) sits where HREF guidance, precipitable water, and steep low-level lapse rates overlap. A 5-percent wind area fans out as far as Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta — that is the isolated-gust envelope, not the Slight Risk core.

A cold front still runs west-southwest to east-northeast from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and will ease south. Seasonably moist air ahead of it over Kansas, Missouri, and northwestern Oklahoma should become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon. Storms are expected late afternoon into early evening as CIN erodes. Steep 0–3 km lapse rates (8.5–9.5°C/km) favor vigorous cores and evaporative cooling. A few short-lived supercells are possible in the Kansas vicinity given adequate speed and directional shear. Large hail rides with the stronger updrafts. The threat should diminish during the evening.

Farther west, models still build storms near and east of I-25 this afternoon, then grow a loosely organized band — including some supercells — into a linear cluster crossing eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Fifteen-percent wind probabilities were added over eastern Colorado for that mode. Low severe-wind probabilities continue into western Kansas late evening if the cluster holds together.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and the I-70 / I-35 corridor in Kansas; St. Joseph and the western Missouri fringe; eastern Colorado Front Range and High Plains east of I-25; Amarillo and Enid sit in the broader wind-probability field but are not the Slight Risk bullseye.

Restoration read: stage tarps and glass/roof kits for late afternoon, not after the first warning. Hail on the 15-percent contour is vehicle and shingle work. Wind at 60–75 mph is trees on service drops and isolated roof peel. Do not let the Heat Advisory talk you out of hydration and early staging — that air mass is the same one feeding the storms.

Hotspot 2 — Midwest Moderate excessive rainfall (already hitting)

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0844 UTC Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of the Midwest, particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. That is the same corridor that took overnight Flash Flood Warnings. Additional 1–2 inches were still possible in the Iowa–Illinois warnings as of 4:19–5:54 a.m. CDT. Flood Watches through Sunday morning over southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio keep the water story open after the current warnings expire.

Southeastern Minnesota is the just-hit core: 4–7.5 inches in Fillmore and Mower Counties with flooding on Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson, water over County 57 / Minnesota 56, trees washed onto Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and I-90 between mile markers 193 and 204 in the statement footprint. Houston County statements cited 5–7 inches and a mudslide west of Caledonia. Those are extraction and roadway-closure jobs already on the books.

River flooding leftover from earlier in the week still sits on the Saint Marys and Wabash in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, with moderate flooding forecast near Decatur and Fort Wayne. That is channel water, not this morning’s flash-flood cores.

Restoration read: Minnesota–northeast Iowa–northwest Illinois is today’s water ticket. Photograph interiors in remaining daylight only if it is safe. The Moderate Risk means another training band can reload the same ZIPs this afternoon. Do not send the Kansas hail crew and the Dubuque water crew as one story.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Montana Moderate flood + High Plains leftover wind

WPC upgraded parts of southern Montana to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. Discussion cited anomalously high moisture, a slow-moving mid-upper low, and deterministic QPF near 3.5 inches with high-end CAM scenarios of localized 7–8 inches if instability verifies. NWS Billings holds a Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for all of south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, with explicit burn-scar flash-flood language. A separate Flood Watch covers a slice of northeast Montana (Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, Wibaux).

Overnight High Plains wind already verified on the west side of this pattern: 66 mph near Burlington, Colorado; 67 mph southeast of Evansville, Wyoming; 63 mph northwest of Ruleton, Kansas; 69 mph north-northwest of McDonald, Kansas; 64 mph north of Hastings, Nebraska; trees and snapped poles in Cheyenne County, Kansas. Those are Friday night LSRs, not a live watch.

Restoration read: Montana is a flood-and-burn-scar desk, not a wind desk. High Plains wind damage from last night is already on the ground in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Today’s new wind threat there is the late-day cluster coming off the Front Range.

Just hit

Friday’s Carolinas–Georgia Marginal Risk verified as a wind pulse. Official LSRs include a 69 mph gust at Greensboro (GSO) and 66 mph at Fayetteville (KFAY), plus a long string of trees and wires down from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, Moore, Johnston, Wake, Cumberland, Harnett, Catawba, and Pender Counties in North Carolina into York, Spartanburg, Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson Counties in South Carolina. Shingles and siding damage was reported west-southwest of Statesville. A landspout lofted debris at Lighthouse Point, Broward County, Florida, mid-afternoon Friday. That is a local Florida ticket, not the national headline.

Utah and the Four Corners took the hail and brief-tornado reports: 1.50-inch hail at Kaysville and west of Farmington, Davis County; 1.00-inch hail at Farmington, New Mexico, and Dinosaur / Massadona, Moffat County, Colorado; a tornado report near Fruit Heights, Davis County, from video showing rotation and lofted debris; a landspout report 15 miles east-southeast of Naples, Uintah County. Those cells are down. The work is already there.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central / eastern Kansas	Severe wind 60–75 mph, large hail, short-lived supercells	SPC Slight (1300Z)	Outlook only — no watch yet
Eastern CO into western KS	Damaging gusts as storms go linear	15% wind / isolated severe	Late afternoon–evening
E Iowa / N Illinois / N Indiana	Flash flood, training rain	WPC Moderate ERO	Live overnight FFWs; risk continues
SE Minnesota (Fillmore, Houston, Mower)	Just-hit 4–7.5″ rain, roads, mudslide	FFW / flood warning overnight	Aftermath + residual water
SW MI / N IN / NW OH	Additional flooding possible	Flood Watch through Sunday morning	Watch live
Southern / SE Montana + Sheridan WY	Heavy rain, burn-scar flash flood	WPC Moderate + Flood Watch	Today into Sunday
Carolinas / Upstate SC	Trees, wires, 66–69 mph gusts	Friday Marginal — verified	Just hit / cleanup
Wasatch Front / Four Corners	1.00–1.50″ hail, brief tornado/landspout reports	Friday convection	Just hit
Ohio Valley / southern Appalachians / Southeast	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC 5% wind / local SVR possible	Afternoon scatter
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone threatening land	NHC: no TCs	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Water is the morning job. Minnesota and the Iowa–Illinois line already have interior and roadway flooding from overnight cores. A Moderate ERO means those same counties can take another round. Kansas is the afternoon job: hail and 60–75 mph wind if the Slight Risk fires on schedule. Montana is a separate flood-and-burn-scar desk with a multi-day watch. Carolina wind and Utah hail are Friday night tickets still waiting on adjusters.

For teams on the Kansas Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Heat-index values near 100–105°F on the Missouri–southeast Kansas Advisory are a crew-safety constraint, not a reason to ignore the outlook.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up as of mid-morning UTC Saturday. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail and wind swath through a Kansas county, another flooded intersection where Iowa or northern Illinois cells train, burn-scar runoff in southern Montana, leftover trees in the Carolinas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains a Slight Risk. WPC Day 2 eases the Midwest and Ohio Valley to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall as the axis slides east. Flood Watches in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Montana run through Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the overnight Minnesota warnings were the last water of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0725 AM CDT); SPC Current Watches page updated 12:23 UTC Saturday (no watches valid; last watch #0669); SPC Local Storm Reports for 18/1200Z–19/1159Z; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0844 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text from La Crosse, Quad Cities, Northern Indiana, Billings, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Saturday (no tropical cyclones; Azores disturbance is not a U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 18 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

This is a live Wednesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of northern Utah and parts of Ohio and vicinity. No convective watches are valid. Two mesoscale discussions are out this afternoon — MD 2302 for east-central Indiana into central Ohio and MD 2303 for northeastern Utah — both tagged severe potential, watch unlikely. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook still holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

What is organized this afternoon is water in the Southwest, not a Midwest derecho. Restoration exposure is isolated damaging wind or hail if a cell or small cluster holds together in Ohio or Utah, plus flash flood and burn-scar runoff where the monsoon plume sits over Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, and the San Juans. Conditions change by county. Verify with the National Weather Service before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0232 PM CDT, valid 162000Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. The 20Z update said the forecast remains generally on track with only minor changes. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Fort Wayne, Akron, and Salt Lake City. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

MD 2302, issued 0246 PM CDT for east-central Indiana into central Ohio, valid through 162145Z: isolated thunderstorms near the Indiana/Ohio state line ahead of a stalled front. Temperatures in the 80s to near 90 F with mid-70s dewpoints. Effective shear 20–30 kt. Most probable peak gust up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 5 percent.

MD 2303, issued 0353 PM CDT for portions of northeastern Utah, valid through 162300Z: a developing supercell in a 500–1000 J/kg MLCAPE environment with 40–50 kt effective shear. Primary risk large hail (most probable 1.00–1.75 inches) plus isolated damaging gusts up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 20 percent. Watch still unlikely.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, valid 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, keeps the organized water story in the Southwest. Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona, including the Phoenix metro and the Mogollon Rim, and over the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico around the Ruidoso burn-scar country. High-end Slight Risk covers much of Arizona into southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and much of New Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered flash-flood prospects remain possible later across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front, and again tonight along the I-80 corridor from Iowa into northern Illinois.

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. Yesterday’s 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window is the just-hit file.

Hotspot 1 — East-central Indiana into central and eastern Ohio

SPC’s 1630 and 2000 UTC discussions keep the Ohio Valley on precip-loaded downdrafts, not supercells. PWAT values approaching 2 inches and steep low-level lapse rates can still produce strong or occasionally damaging winds. MD 2302 is the afternoon confirmation that cells are already firing near the state line. Coverage is widely scattered. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit how long any one core lasts.

Overnight flash-flood warnings from Wilmington, Ohio, and Northern Indiana for Mercer County, Ohio, and Grant, Blackford, Adams, and Wells counties, Indiana, have expired. Those counties already took 1.5 to 3 inches before dawn. That water is still on the ground even if the warning product is dead.

Restoration read: wind first if a cluster organizes through early evening, then trees and lines. Water first in the counties that already flooded overnight. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus–Pittsburgh belt before the first new warning, not after it.

Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

This remains today’s organized flood ticket. WPC language still prints 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the south-central Arizona desert including Phoenix and surrounds, the Mogollon Rim, southern Utah slot-canyon country from Zion toward Moab, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language around Ruidoso and similar terrain.

SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 2000 UTC outlook. Water is the story. Gusty outflow is possible. Do not invent a severe-thunderstorm watch here.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Northeastern Utah into far northwest Colorado

Moisture has increased across Utah over the past 24 hours, with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s and PWAT over 1 inch. A band of 35–45 kt southwesterly mid-level flow is enough for a few rotating storms. MD 2303 is the live product on that cell: hail first, isolated wind second, watch unlikely. Grand Junction’s overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County expired before dawn. That scar can still run if another core sits on it.

Restoration read: isolated hail and wind tickets around the Wasatch Front and northeastern Utah valleys if the supercell holds. Burn-scar runoff is a separate life-safety problem from a roof-survey call in Salt Lake, West Valley, Provo, or Orem.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for 15/1200Z–16/1159Z show no tornadoes. Hail included 2.00 inches at Edgerton, Johnson County, Kansas; 1.75 inches west of Cairo, Randolph County, Missouri; 1.50 inches near Alta, Peoria County, Illinois; and 1.00-inch stones at Smyer, Texas, and Richmond, Missouri. Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a nearby plant; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas, and southeast of Hazelton, Kansas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph south of Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Richmond and the Kansas City suburbs (Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, west of Raytown); trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; 65 mph near Wallen, Allen County, Indiana; numerous trees down near Lake Wawasee, Kosciusko County, Indiana; and power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

Kansas City/Pleasant Hill still has river flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new convective watch. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This afternoon treats that corridor as aftermath plus river follow-through.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
East-central IN / central–eastern OH	Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood	SPC Marginal; MD 2302 watch unlikely	Cells live near the state line
Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM	Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today’s organized water ticket
Northeastern UT / NW CO	Isolated hail and gusts, burn-scar runoff	SPC Marginal; MD 2303 watch unlikely	Supercell language this afternoon
NE KS / NW MO / Grand River	River flooding, wind/hail damage	Flood warnings; LSRs last night	Just-hit / in channel
IA / northern IL (tonight)	Training rain after 03Z	WPC Slight along I-80 corridor	Nocturnal pulse still ahead
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 mph is trees, lines, gutters, and isolated roof work — not a regional CAT. Two-inch hail from last night is already a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: the afternoon window is now, not tonight. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. Two MCDs with watch-unlikely tags are not watches. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a hail core in northeastern Utah, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday, valid 171200Z–181200Z) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The 1730 UTC Day 2 discussion leaves room for later low-end wind probabilities near the Appalachians and Ohio Valley but kept the threat too marginal for an outlook area in this update. WPC still has a nocturnal Slight flood overlay from Iowa into northern Illinois late tonight, plus lingering Southwest water. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman, previous Hart/Chalmers); 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2302; Mesoscale Discussion 2303; SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer, 352 AM EDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlooks, September 16, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

Morning desk: Wednesday, September 16 morning Storm Updates. Prior afternoon: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona–New Mexico Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Overnight convection across the south-central Plains into the Midwest produced wind and hail. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah into far northwest Colorado. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus water on the Missouri River system and a new monsoon-style flood ticket in Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0745 AM CDT. Valid 161300Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Akron, Salt Lake City, and Dayton. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language for the period beginning 12Z Wednesday has shifted the organized water story west. The Moderate Risk that covered northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri on Tuesday is now the just-hit and river-flood desk. Today’s Moderate Risk is over southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, with a high-end Slight Risk across much of Arizona into southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Isolated flash-flood prospects remain possible later today across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front.

Hotspot 1 — Indiana into Ohio and the upper Ohio Valley

A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over Illinois and northwest Indiana is forecast to track east across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Mid-level westerlies stay modest, generally 20–30 kt. SPC expects additional convective development this afternoon across parts of Indiana into Ohio as a moist low-level airmass destabilizes. Poor lapse rates aloft should limit updraft strength. Locally damaging winds are the hazard if loosely organized clusters form and spread east through early evening, then weaken with loss of heating.

Overnight LSRs already put trees and lines down in Kosciusko and Noble counties in Indiana, plus a measured 65 mph gust near Wallen in Allen County. Northern Indiana and Wilmington, Ohio, offices issued overnight flash-flood warnings for heavy rain of 1.5 to 3 inches in parts of Grant, Blackford, Adams, Wells, and Mercer counties. Those products expired this morning. The water is still on the ground.

Restoration read: wind first this afternoon if clusters organize. Water first in the counties that already took 2–3 inches before dawn. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Indianapolis–Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning.

Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

This is today’s organized flood ticket. WPC upgraded Day 1 excessive rainfall to Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains. Guidance continues to print 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the Mogollon Rim, south-central Arizona including the Phoenix metro and surrounds, southern Utah slot-canyon country, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language on higher terrain.

SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 1300 UTC outlook. Modest lapse rates, cloud cover, and only marginal deep-layer shear keep the severe-wind/hail threat limited. Gusty outflow is still possible. Water is the story.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 3 — Utah into far northwest Colorado, plus leftover Kansas–Missouri water

On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low over northern California, 35–45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the Great Basin. Ongoing storms over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado are in a strongly sheared but weakly unstable environment. SPC leaves room for isolated severe hail or gusts if cells or small clusters can form with filtered afternoon heating. Limited heating should keep the overall severe risk marginal. Grand Junction issued an overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County; that product expired before dawn.

Kansas and northwest Missouri are no longer the new Moderate Risk. They are the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs include 2.00-inch hail at Edgerton, Kansas; 1.75-inch hail west of Cairo, Missouri; trees, wires, and power poles in Richmond, Ray County; wires down around Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, and west of Raytown; and a small building damaged north of Clifton Hill. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new watch.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail clustered from the Texas South Plains through the Kansas City metro into Peoria County, Illinois (1.50 inches near Alta). Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a plant nearby; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph at Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This morning’s desk treats that corridor as aftermath plus river-flood follow-through.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
IN / OH / upper Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood	SPC Marginal; overnight FFWs expired	Afternoon clusters possible
Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM	Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today’s organized water ticket
Eastern UT / NW CO	Isolated hail/gusts, burn-scar runoff	SPC Marginal	Afternoon cells possible
NE KS / NW MO / Grand River	River flooding, wind/hail damage	Flood warnings; LSRs overnight	Just-hit / in channel
TX South Plains / NW OK / south-central KS	Measured severe gusts, isolated hail	LSRs overnight; no watch now	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Two-inch hail is a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas, and neighboring ZIPs. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. A trough several hundred miles east of Bermuda has only a low chance of development and is not a land threat today. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 holds Slight Risks of excessive rainfall for portions of the north-central Plains, Upper Midwest, and southwestern U.S. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260915 1200 UTC–20260916 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion; National Weather Service warning text including Wilmington OH, Northern Indiana, Grand Junction, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Quad Cities, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 16, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran northern Kansas, southern and eastern Nebraska, and western and central Iowa is the just-hit desk. This morning the Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. The louder national product is flood: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Moderate Risk over portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight wrapping the Kansas City metro and the I-70 corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover wind damage from last night plus a new heavy-rain ticket on already-wet Kansas and Missouri ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Storm Prediction Center convective watch is in effect. Tornado Watch 669, issued late Monday evening, expired at 0500 UTC Tuesday (midnight CDT). Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668 from Monday afternoon is also down. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:28 a.m. CDT) is Marginal only. SPC language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A Slight upgrade was considered for eastern Kansas into Missouri if an organized cluster can form, but the 1300 UTC package left probabilities at Marginal.

WPC’s 0800 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the headline product. A Moderate Risk covers northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips the far southeast corner of Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance centers the heaviest totals just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph, with 2 to 3 inches areal-average and locally 3 to 5 inches possible. Kansas City and the I-70 corridor sit in a high-end Slight. A broader Slight Risk extends south along the cold front on the High Plains and northeast into Midwest counties that already took rain overnight. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

National Hurricane Center: there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and Tropical Depression Norbert are both well out in the Pacific and not a U.S. mainland landfall threat.

Hotspot 1 — Northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri (flood)

This is today’s primary new ticket. WPC coordinated a Moderate Risk with the Topeka and Kansas City weather forecast offices after neighboring counties already saw localized flash flooding earlier in the event. Precipitable-water anomalies of +2 to +3 standard deviations and flash-flood guidance that is already lowered set up 1-inch-per-hour rates after late-afternoon initiation. Best window is late afternoon through tonight as a low-level jet reloads the boundary. Training west-southwest to east-northeast is the mode that fails streets, underpasses, and small creeks first.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and the northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; the Kansas City metro as a high-end Slight, not the Moderate core; far southeast Nebraska along the river.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on a 24-hour clock if cells train over the same ZIP that already took rain Monday night. Do not treat Kansas City as the Moderate core unless WPC or the local office upgrades it later today.

Hotspot 2 — South-central Plains into the Midwest (Marginal wind)

A surface cold front will slide slowly south-southeast across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley through this evening and stall late. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s sit ahead of it from the southern High Plains to the southern Great Lakes. SPC expects storms to develop roughly 20–23Z along much of the front. Loosely organized clusters with damaging wind are the primary severe concern, more so where heating is stronger on the southern and central Plains. Isolated hail is possible if a marginal supercell can hold from eastern Kansas into Missouri. Population under the 5 percent wind contour includes Wichita, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Chicago.

Restoration read: isolated 60 mph-class gusts and trees on service drops, not a regional wind event. Stage in the counties that already have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, not the entire Marginal contour.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest scatter and leftover Iowa water

WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico. Isolated 2 to 3 inch cores on terrain are possible. SPC does not have severe probabilities over the Four Corners this morning; gusty outflow and small hail remain possible but unorganized.

Iowa is yesterday’s and last night’s water still in the channel. NWS Des Moines had a Flash Flood Warning into 9:00 a.m. CDT this morning for parts of Dallas, Madison, Adair, Cass, Audubon, and Guthrie counties after 1 to 3 inches already on the ground. That is extraction work already on the books, not a new watch.

Just hit

Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports from the 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window show a long wind corridor and almost no hail. One landspout was reported near Arboles, Colorado. No tornado path damage is in the filtered LSR set as of this morning desk.

Measured wind highlights overnight: 87 mph 3 NE Guide Rock, Webster County, Nebraska; 83 mph 3 SE Smith Center, Smith County, Kansas; 77 mph 4 NNW Amy, Lane County, Kansas; 76 mph 4 N Kendall, Hamilton County, Kansas, and again 2 NNW Beatrice, Gage County, Nebraska; 75 mph 5 ESE Elmwood, Cass County, Nebraska; 74 mph 4 SW McClelland, Pottawattamie County, Iowa; 73 mph 1 N Shelby, Shelby County, Iowa; 71 mph near Richfield, Morton County, Kansas. Tree and power-line damage reports came in from Cass and Lancaster counties in Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames in Iowa, plus scattered tree work in Hinds County, Mississippi, and a power pole down in Tucson, Arizona. That is Monday night’s wind ticket. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Afternoon through tonight
Kansas City / I-70 corridor	Heavy rain, urban flood	WPC high-end Slight	Tonight
S-central Plains into Midwest	Isolated damaging wind, isolated hail	SPC Marginal	20–23Z initiation
Northern KS / NE / western–central IA	Wind damage, trees, leftover water	LSRs overnight; Watch 668/669 expired	Just-hit / aftermath
SW Iowa (Des Moines CWA)	Flash flood from overnight rain	FFW into 9 a.m. CDT	Morning water
E Arizona / W New Mexico	Terrain flash flood, gusty outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon cells
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the Atlantic	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Last night’s 70–87 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Webster and Smith counties, the Kansas High Plains, Gage and Cass in Nebraska, and Pottawattamie and Shelby in Iowa. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Today’s new ticket is water on the Topeka–St. Joseph axis. Heavy rain on already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa southwest counties that sat under the early-morning flash-flood warning are extraction first, not a new severe-wind desk.

Do not staff the entire SPC Marginal contour as if it were yesterday’s Slight. Yesterday’s Slight verified as a wind line. Today’s organized threat is rainfall rate, not shear.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Watch 669 is expired. SPC left the Day 1 package at Marginal because an organized cluster is still too uncertain. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded intersection north of Topeka or around St. Joseph, a wind swath in an eastern Kansas or Missouri county if a cluster does organize, leftover trees from last night’s Nebraska–Iowa line. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is Marginal again Wednesday morning near the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity for hail and wind on a shortwave. Day 3 is no severe. WPC will reissue the excessive-rainfall outlook later this morning; treat the Moderate contour as live until that update. The next Storm Tracker desk will catch any watch that fires on the Kansas–Missouri boundary this afternoon.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 15, 2026; SPC current watch page (Tornado Watch 669 expired 0500 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 20260914 reporting day; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0800 UTC Tuesday; National Weather Service warning text including Des Moines flash-flood warning IAC001-009-029-049-077-121; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook showing no Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, September 14 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 15, 2026