This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran northern Kansas, southern and eastern Nebraska, and western and central Iowa is the just-hit desk. This morning the Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. The louder national product is flood: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Moderate Risk over portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight wrapping the Kansas City metro and the I-70 corridor.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover wind damage from last night plus a new heavy-rain ticket on already-wet Kansas and Missouri ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No Storm Prediction Center convective watch is in effect. Tornado Watch 669, issued late Monday evening, expired at 0500 UTC Tuesday (midnight CDT). Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668 from Monday afternoon is also down. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:28 a.m. CDT) is Marginal only. SPC language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A Slight upgrade was considered for eastern Kansas into Missouri if an organized cluster can form, but the 1300 UTC package left probabilities at Marginal.
WPC’s 0800 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the headline product. A Moderate Risk covers northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips the far southeast corner of Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance centers the heaviest totals just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph, with 2 to 3 inches areal-average and locally 3 to 5 inches possible. Kansas City and the I-70 corridor sit in a high-end Slight. A broader Slight Risk extends south along the cold front on the High Plains and northeast into Midwest counties that already took rain overnight. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.
National Hurricane Center: there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and Tropical Depression Norbert are both well out in the Pacific and not a U.S. mainland landfall threat.
Hotspot 1 — Northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri (flood)
This is today’s primary new ticket. WPC coordinated a Moderate Risk with the Topeka and Kansas City weather forecast offices after neighboring counties already saw localized flash flooding earlier in the event. Precipitable-water anomalies of +2 to +3 standard deviations and flash-flood guidance that is already lowered set up 1-inch-per-hour rates after late-afternoon initiation. Best window is late afternoon through tonight as a low-level jet reloads the boundary. Training west-southwest to east-northeast is the mode that fails streets, underpasses, and small creeks first.
Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and the northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; the Kansas City metro as a high-end Slight, not the Moderate core; far southeast Nebraska along the river.
Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on a 24-hour clock if cells train over the same ZIP that already took rain Monday night. Do not treat Kansas City as the Moderate core unless WPC or the local office upgrades it later today.
Hotspot 2 — South-central Plains into the Midwest (Marginal wind)
A surface cold front will slide slowly south-southeast across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley through this evening and stall late. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s sit ahead of it from the southern High Plains to the southern Great Lakes. SPC expects storms to develop roughly 20–23Z along much of the front. Loosely organized clusters with damaging wind are the primary severe concern, more so where heating is stronger on the southern and central Plains. Isolated hail is possible if a marginal supercell can hold from eastern Kansas into Missouri. Population under the 5 percent wind contour includes Wichita, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Chicago.
Restoration read: isolated 60 mph-class gusts and trees on service drops, not a regional wind event. Stage in the counties that already have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, not the entire Marginal contour.
Hotspot 3 — Southwest scatter and leftover Iowa water
WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico. Isolated 2 to 3 inch cores on terrain are possible. SPC does not have severe probabilities over the Four Corners this morning; gusty outflow and small hail remain possible but unorganized.
Iowa is yesterday’s and last night’s water still in the channel. NWS Des Moines had a Flash Flood Warning into 9:00 a.m. CDT this morning for parts of Dallas, Madison, Adair, Cass, Audubon, and Guthrie counties after 1 to 3 inches already on the ground. That is extraction work already on the books, not a new watch.
Just hit
Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports from the 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window show a long wind corridor and almost no hail. One landspout was reported near Arboles, Colorado. No tornado path damage is in the filtered LSR set as of this morning desk.
Measured wind highlights overnight: 87 mph 3 NE Guide Rock, Webster County, Nebraska; 83 mph 3 SE Smith Center, Smith County, Kansas; 77 mph 4 NNW Amy, Lane County, Kansas; 76 mph 4 N Kendall, Hamilton County, Kansas, and again 2 NNW Beatrice, Gage County, Nebraska; 75 mph 5 ESE Elmwood, Cass County, Nebraska; 74 mph 4 SW McClelland, Pottawattamie County, Iowa; 73 mph 1 N Shelby, Shelby County, Iowa; 71 mph near Richfield, Morton County, Kansas. Tree and power-line damage reports came in from Cass and Lancaster counties in Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames in Iowa, plus scattered tree work in Hinds County, Mississippi, and a power pole down in Tucson, Arizona. That is Monday night’s wind ticket. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska | Flash flood, training heavy rain | WPC Moderate excessive rainfall | Afternoon through tonight |
| Kansas City / I-70 corridor | Heavy rain, urban flood | WPC high-end Slight | Tonight |
| S-central Plains into Midwest | Isolated damaging wind, isolated hail | SPC Marginal | 20–23Z initiation |
| Northern KS / NE / western–central IA | Wind damage, trees, leftover water | LSRs overnight; Watch 668/669 expired | Just-hit / aftermath |
| SW Iowa (Des Moines CWA) | Flash flood from overnight rain | FFW into 9 a.m. CDT | Morning water |
| E Arizona / W New Mexico | Terrain flash flood, gusty outflow | WPC Slight | Afternoon cells |
| Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland | No landfalling tropical cyclone | NHC quiet on the Atlantic | Quiet |
What this means for restoration teams
Last night’s 70–87 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Webster and Smith counties, the Kansas High Plains, Gage and Cass in Nebraska, and Pottawattamie and Shelby in Iowa. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Today’s new ticket is water on the Topeka–St. Joseph axis. Heavy rain on already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa southwest counties that sat under the early-morning flash-flood warning are extraction first, not a new severe-wind desk.
Do not staff the entire SPC Marginal contour as if it were yesterday’s Slight. Yesterday’s Slight verified as a wind line. Today’s organized threat is rainfall rate, not shear.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Watch 669 is expired. SPC left the Day 1 package at Marginal because an organized cluster is still too uncertain. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded intersection north of Topeka or around St. Joseph, a wind swath in an eastern Kansas or Missouri county if a cluster does organize, leftover trees from last night’s Nebraska–Iowa line. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 is Marginal again Wednesday morning near the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity for hail and wind on a shortwave. Day 3 is no severe. WPC will reissue the excessive-rainfall outlook later this morning; treat the Moderate contour as live until that update. The next Storm Tracker desk will catch any watch that fires on the Kansas–Missouri boundary this afternoon.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 15, 2026; SPC current watch page (Tornado Watch 669 expired 0500 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 20260914 reporting day; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0800 UTC Tuesday; National Weather Service warning text including Des Moines flash-flood warning IAC001-009-029-049-077-121; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook showing no Atlantic tropical cyclones.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, September 14 storm updates.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.