Tag: Missouri

Storm Updates: Appalachians–Southeast Marginal, Texas South Plains Hail Pulse — Monday, September 21, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Monday, September 21, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians, and a second Marginal Risk over the Texas South Plains. Isolated damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are the main threat along the front this afternoon. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible later today on the Caprock. No convective watches are currently valid. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, last night’s eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas box, has expired.

These are county-scale thunderstorms, not a U.S. mainland tropical landfall. Tropical Storm Fay is several hundred miles southwest of the Azores and is not a U.S. land threat. Restoration exposure today is leftover tree and roof work from last night’s Ohio Valley and High Plains cells, plus a new wind-damage pulse if the front fires this afternoon from Kentucky into West Virginia and Virginia. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

Overnight into this morning

Radar this morning shows a parade of three mesoscale convective vortices moving east over the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, mostly on the cool side of a cold front. That is leftover organization from Sunday night, not a new watch. Local storm reports on the SPC day that closed at 12 UTC Monday include no tornadoes. The hail corridor was eastern Colorado: golf-ball to baseball-size stones around Holyoke, Alvin, Genoa, Boyero, Wild Horse, Kit Carson, Eads, and south of Brandon in Phillips, Yuma, Lincoln, Cheyenne, and Kiowa counties. One social-media measurement near Brandon was 3.10 inches. A spotter windshield was damaged near Wild Horse. A separate 2.00-inch hail report came from Liberty in Union County, Indiana.

Wind reports overnight were the restoration ticket east of the High Plains. Trees and lines came down across Christian, Greene, Jasper, and Lawrence counties in southwest Missouri, including a tree on a house in Pierce City. Illinois reports included a shed roof in Jasper County, 64 mph at Olney-Noble Airport, and power-line damage near Witt, Ramsey, and Noble. Southwestern Ohio logged trees in Kettering, Bellbrook, and Greene County after midnight. After 3 UTC, NWS Charleston territory picked up trees and blocked roads in Vinton and Meigs counties, Ohio, and in Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer counties, West Virginia, including more than 1,200 customers without power along Highway 7 north-northeast of Syracuse. Separate tree-down reports ran through Anderson and Laurens counties in South Carolina, Walton County, Georgia, and a string of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Panhandle counties from Taylor and Iron City to De Funiak Springs and I-10 mile marker 70.

Flash flood warning posts already on this desk overnight covered pieces of Muskingum, Washington, Morgan, and Gallia counties in Ohio and Braxton plus north-central West Virginia. Those warnings were timed to expire in the early morning hours. Treat them as just-hit water, not a new outlook. Confirm county status on weather.gov before you treat a warning as still live.

What is live this morning

No SPC watches are valid as of 1136 UTC Monday. The Day 1 outlook valid 1300 UTC Monday through 1200 UTC Tuesday is Marginal only. The front this afternoon is forecast from northern Mississippi northeast to western Virginia. Dewpoints ahead of it run upper 60s to lower 70s from the lower Mississippi Valley into West Virginia. SPC expects scattered to numerous single-cell and multicell storms after peak heating, with the better flow on the northern edge of the risk — Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia. Stronger downdrafts can produce 50 to 60 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage before cells weaken in the early evening.

The Texas South Plains Marginal is a separate, isolated pulse. A front and residual outflow drape the Caprock this afternoon. Guidance supports scattered storms in a moist plume during peak heating, with a couple of stronger cells capable of large hail and severe gusts before they die in the evening.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page still carried Sunday’s discussion into the 12 UTC Monday valid end, with Slight Risk language over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley plus the northern High Plains from the prior period. That is the moisture that already produced last night’s Ohio–West Virginia flood warnings. Use the live WPC graphic and local NWS flash-flood products for today’s water overlay rather than treating Sunday’s Slight as a new box.

Hotspot 1 — Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the central Appalachians

This is the northern edge of today’s Marginal Risk and the part of the front with slightly stronger flow. Cities and counties to watch: Lexington and eastern Kentucky; Charleston, Huntington, Parkersburg, and the central West Virginia counties that already took trees overnight; western and northern Virginia including the Shenandoah and the Richmond-to-Charlottesville fringe of the outlook line. SPC maps the Marginal from near Greenville, Mississippi, northeast through Kentucky to near Parkersburg, then east toward Elkins, Charlottesville, and Richmond before dropping south through Raleigh and Athens toward Montgomery and Jackson.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Last night already put trees on roads and lines in Meigs, Wirt, Calhoun, and Gilmer. Another round of 50–60 mph gusts this afternoon is more of the same — roof, siding, service drops — not a regional derecho. If a cell trains on ground that flooded overnight, treat that ZIP as a water job by evening.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast ahead of the front

The same Marginal Risk covers central Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Instability can peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range from central Mississippi into western North Carolina, but deep-layer shear is weak. Mode is single cells and disorganized multicells. Sunday evening already produced trees in Anderson and Laurens, South Carolina; Monroe and Walton, Georgia; and the Florida–Alabama line. Today is a repeat isolated-wind desk, not a watch.

Restoration read: stage locally if your county is on the warm side of the front. Do not move a regional crew on a Marginal that SPC itself frames as isolated 50–60 mph gusts.

Hotspot 3 — Texas South Plains, plus leftover High Plains hail

The second Marginal sits from near Clovis and Hobbs across the Caprock toward Childress and Big Spring. Isolated large hail and severe gusts later today are the threat. That is not last night’s Colorado supercell corridor. Last night’s work is already on the books in Cheyenne, Kiowa, Lincoln, Yuma, and Phillips counties — baseball hail, damaged glass, and agricultural hits. Do not send the same crew to Lubbock this afternoon and Eads this morning without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Just hit

Sunday afternoon’s High Plains Slight Risk and Watch 674 are closed. The verified story there is large hail, not a tornado. Southwest Missouri trees, Illinois wind, Ohio–West Virginia overnight trees and flash-flood warnings, and scattered Southeast wind reports are the other closed tickets. Tropical Storm Fay is not a U.S. land story.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
KY / WV / VA / central Appalachians	Isolated damaging wind 50–60 mph, lightning	SPC Marginal	Afternoon pulse; no watch
MS / AL / GA / western Carolinas	Isolated wind, wet microbursts	SPC Marginal	Diurnal; no watch
Texas South Plains / Caprock	Isolated large hail, severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–evening
Eastern Colorado High Plains	Baseball hail, glass, crop	Watch 674 expired	Just-hit / aftermath
SW Missouri / Illinois / SW Ohio	Trees, lines, isolated structural	LSRs overnight	Just-hit
SE Ohio / north-central WV	Trees, flash flood leftover	Overnight FFWs expired or expiring	Aftermath / check county
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	Fay near the Azores; no U.S. formation	NHC TWO	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Fifty to sixty miles an hour is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Last night’s Colorado hail is a glass and roof-inspection desk in a handful of High Plains counties, not a regional CAT. Ohio and West Virginia water from overnight flash-flood warnings is extraction and a 24–48 hour mold clock where water entered. Do not staff today’s Marginal as if Watch 674 were still up.

Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on leftover high water in southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Kentucky or West Virginia county, a hailer on the Caprock, leftover trees from Sunday night. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. SPC Day 2 is also Marginal. Day 3 is currently no severe thunderstorms. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 21, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0733 AM CDT); SPC current watches page updated 1136 UTC Monday with no valid watches and most recently issued Watch 674; SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260920 1200 UTC through 20260921 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook page; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Monday; National Weather Service warning text already logged on this desk for southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday, September 20 storm updates — Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 21, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Saturday, September 19, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down across the Carolinas and Upstate South Carolina, dumped 1.00–1.50-inch hail on the Utah Wasatch Front and Four Corners, and produced brief tornado or landspout reports near Fruit Heights and Uintah County, Utah. This morning the organized work is water: flash-flood warnings and just-hit rain of 3 to 7.5 inches in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, with a Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall still draped over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, plus a second Moderate pocket over southern Montana.

The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains, valid 1300Z Saturday through 1200Z Sunday. Summary language: scattered severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening, focused on Kansas. No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was #0669, now expired. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific. A subtropical Atlantic disturbance near the Azores is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is interior water where overnight cores trained, then late-day Kansas wind and hail if the Slight Risk verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No SPC severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is up at 12:23 UTC Saturday. Friday’s Carolina wind pulse and Utah/Four Corners convection are yesterday’s tickets now sitting as LSRs. What is still live is hydrologic: overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southern Fillmore County, Minnesota; Clayton and Fayette Counties, Iowa; and Dubuque, Jackson, Jo Daviess, and Stephenson Counties on the Iowa–Illinois line. La Crosse and Quad Cities language overnight cited 1–3 inches already down in the Iowa warnings and 3–7.5 inches in the Minnesota flood statements, with a mudslide reported on Highway 76 west of Caledonia and water over the road at Beaver Creek Valley State Park.

Flood Watches remain through Sunday morning across portions of southwest and south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. A separate Flood Watch covers south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, through Sunday afternoon, including burn-scar flash-flood language. Heat Advisories continue into this evening over parts of southeast Kansas and central through southwest Missouri, with heat-index values near 100–105°F — that is a crew-safety overlay on the same Plains corridor that later gets the Slight Risk.

Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)

This is today’s new severe desk. The 1300Z outlook, issued 7:25 a.m. CDT by Smith/Mead, places a Slight Risk over parts of the central Plains. The 15-percent hail contour covers about 34,700 square miles and 1.33 million people, with larger centers listed as Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, and Manhattan. The 15-percent wind contour is a bit larger and also takes in St. Joseph, Missouri. A categorical intensity-level-1 wind overlay (60–75 mph gusts) sits where HREF guidance, precipitable water, and steep low-level lapse rates overlap. A 5-percent wind area fans out as far as Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta — that is the isolated-gust envelope, not the Slight Risk core.

A cold front still runs west-southwest to east-northeast from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and will ease south. Seasonably moist air ahead of it over Kansas, Missouri, and northwestern Oklahoma should become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon. Storms are expected late afternoon into early evening as CIN erodes. Steep 0–3 km lapse rates (8.5–9.5°C/km) favor vigorous cores and evaporative cooling. A few short-lived supercells are possible in the Kansas vicinity given adequate speed and directional shear. Large hail rides with the stronger updrafts. The threat should diminish during the evening.

Farther west, models still build storms near and east of I-25 this afternoon, then grow a loosely organized band — including some supercells — into a linear cluster crossing eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Fifteen-percent wind probabilities were added over eastern Colorado for that mode. Low severe-wind probabilities continue into western Kansas late evening if the cluster holds together.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and the I-70 / I-35 corridor in Kansas; St. Joseph and the western Missouri fringe; eastern Colorado Front Range and High Plains east of I-25; Amarillo and Enid sit in the broader wind-probability field but are not the Slight Risk bullseye.

Restoration read: stage tarps and glass/roof kits for late afternoon, not after the first warning. Hail on the 15-percent contour is vehicle and shingle work. Wind at 60–75 mph is trees on service drops and isolated roof peel. Do not let the Heat Advisory talk you out of hydration and early staging — that air mass is the same one feeding the storms.

Hotspot 2 — Midwest Moderate excessive rainfall (already hitting)

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0844 UTC Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of the Midwest, particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. That is the same corridor that took overnight Flash Flood Warnings. Additional 1–2 inches were still possible in the Iowa–Illinois warnings as of 4:19–5:54 a.m. CDT. Flood Watches through Sunday morning over southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio keep the water story open after the current warnings expire.

Southeastern Minnesota is the just-hit core: 4–7.5 inches in Fillmore and Mower Counties with flooding on Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson, water over County 57 / Minnesota 56, trees washed onto Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and I-90 between mile markers 193 and 204 in the statement footprint. Houston County statements cited 5–7 inches and a mudslide west of Caledonia. Those are extraction and roadway-closure jobs already on the books.

River flooding leftover from earlier in the week still sits on the Saint Marys and Wabash in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, with moderate flooding forecast near Decatur and Fort Wayne. That is channel water, not this morning’s flash-flood cores.

Restoration read: Minnesota–northeast Iowa–northwest Illinois is today’s water ticket. Photograph interiors in remaining daylight only if it is safe. The Moderate Risk means another training band can reload the same ZIPs this afternoon. Do not send the Kansas hail crew and the Dubuque water crew as one story.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Montana Moderate flood + High Plains leftover wind

WPC upgraded parts of southern Montana to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. Discussion cited anomalously high moisture, a slow-moving mid-upper low, and deterministic QPF near 3.5 inches with high-end CAM scenarios of localized 7–8 inches if instability verifies. NWS Billings holds a Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for all of south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, with explicit burn-scar flash-flood language. A separate Flood Watch covers a slice of northeast Montana (Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, Wibaux).

Overnight High Plains wind already verified on the west side of this pattern: 66 mph near Burlington, Colorado; 67 mph southeast of Evansville, Wyoming; 63 mph northwest of Ruleton, Kansas; 69 mph north-northwest of McDonald, Kansas; 64 mph north of Hastings, Nebraska; trees and snapped poles in Cheyenne County, Kansas. Those are Friday night LSRs, not a live watch.

Restoration read: Montana is a flood-and-burn-scar desk, not a wind desk. High Plains wind damage from last night is already on the ground in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Today’s new wind threat there is the late-day cluster coming off the Front Range.

Just hit

Friday’s Carolinas–Georgia Marginal Risk verified as a wind pulse. Official LSRs include a 69 mph gust at Greensboro (GSO) and 66 mph at Fayetteville (KFAY), plus a long string of trees and wires down from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, Moore, Johnston, Wake, Cumberland, Harnett, Catawba, and Pender Counties in North Carolina into York, Spartanburg, Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson Counties in South Carolina. Shingles and siding damage was reported west-southwest of Statesville. A landspout lofted debris at Lighthouse Point, Broward County, Florida, mid-afternoon Friday. That is a local Florida ticket, not the national headline.

Utah and the Four Corners took the hail and brief-tornado reports: 1.50-inch hail at Kaysville and west of Farmington, Davis County; 1.00-inch hail at Farmington, New Mexico, and Dinosaur / Massadona, Moffat County, Colorado; a tornado report near Fruit Heights, Davis County, from video showing rotation and lofted debris; a landspout report 15 miles east-southeast of Naples, Uintah County. Those cells are down. The work is already there.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central / eastern Kansas	Severe wind 60–75 mph, large hail, short-lived supercells	SPC Slight (1300Z)	Outlook only — no watch yet
Eastern CO into western KS	Damaging gusts as storms go linear	15% wind / isolated severe	Late afternoon–evening
E Iowa / N Illinois / N Indiana	Flash flood, training rain	WPC Moderate ERO	Live overnight FFWs; risk continues
SE Minnesota (Fillmore, Houston, Mower)	Just-hit 4–7.5″ rain, roads, mudslide	FFW / flood warning overnight	Aftermath + residual water
SW MI / N IN / NW OH	Additional flooding possible	Flood Watch through Sunday morning	Watch live
Southern / SE Montana + Sheridan WY	Heavy rain, burn-scar flash flood	WPC Moderate + Flood Watch	Today into Sunday
Carolinas / Upstate SC	Trees, wires, 66–69 mph gusts	Friday Marginal — verified	Just hit / cleanup
Wasatch Front / Four Corners	1.00–1.50″ hail, brief tornado/landspout reports	Friday convection	Just hit
Ohio Valley / southern Appalachians / Southeast	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC 5% wind / local SVR possible	Afternoon scatter
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone threatening land	NHC: no TCs	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Water is the morning job. Minnesota and the Iowa–Illinois line already have interior and roadway flooding from overnight cores. A Moderate ERO means those same counties can take another round. Kansas is the afternoon job: hail and 60–75 mph wind if the Slight Risk fires on schedule. Montana is a separate flood-and-burn-scar desk with a multi-day watch. Carolina wind and Utah hail are Friday night tickets still waiting on adjusters.

For teams on the Kansas Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Heat-index values near 100–105°F on the Missouri–southeast Kansas Advisory are a crew-safety constraint, not a reason to ignore the outlook.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up as of mid-morning UTC Saturday. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail and wind swath through a Kansas county, another flooded intersection where Iowa or northern Illinois cells train, burn-scar runoff in southern Montana, leftover trees in the Carolinas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains a Slight Risk. WPC Day 2 eases the Midwest and Ohio Valley to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall as the axis slides east. Flood Watches in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Montana run through Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the overnight Minnesota warnings were the last water of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0725 AM CDT); SPC Current Watches page updated 12:23 UTC Saturday (no watches valid; last watch #0669); SPC Local Storm Reports for 18/1200Z–19/1159Z; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0844 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text from La Crosse, Quad Cities, Northern Indiana, Billings, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Saturday (no tropical cyclones; Azores disturbance is not a U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 18 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

This is a live Wednesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of northern Utah and parts of Ohio and vicinity. No convective watches are valid. Two mesoscale discussions are out this afternoon — MD 2302 for east-central Indiana into central Ohio and MD 2303 for northeastern Utah — both tagged severe potential, watch unlikely. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook still holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

What is organized this afternoon is water in the Southwest, not a Midwest derecho. Restoration exposure is isolated damaging wind or hail if a cell or small cluster holds together in Ohio or Utah, plus flash flood and burn-scar runoff where the monsoon plume sits over Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, and the San Juans. Conditions change by county. Verify with the National Weather Service before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0232 PM CDT, valid 162000Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. The 20Z update said the forecast remains generally on track with only minor changes. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Fort Wayne, Akron, and Salt Lake City. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

MD 2302, issued 0246 PM CDT for east-central Indiana into central Ohio, valid through 162145Z: isolated thunderstorms near the Indiana/Ohio state line ahead of a stalled front. Temperatures in the 80s to near 90 F with mid-70s dewpoints. Effective shear 20–30 kt. Most probable peak gust up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 5 percent.

MD 2303, issued 0353 PM CDT for portions of northeastern Utah, valid through 162300Z: a developing supercell in a 500–1000 J/kg MLCAPE environment with 40–50 kt effective shear. Primary risk large hail (most probable 1.00–1.75 inches) plus isolated damaging gusts up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 20 percent. Watch still unlikely.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, valid 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, keeps the organized water story in the Southwest. Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona, including the Phoenix metro and the Mogollon Rim, and over the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico around the Ruidoso burn-scar country. High-end Slight Risk covers much of Arizona into southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and much of New Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered flash-flood prospects remain possible later across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front, and again tonight along the I-80 corridor from Iowa into northern Illinois.

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. Yesterday’s 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window is the just-hit file.

Hotspot 1 — East-central Indiana into central and eastern Ohio

SPC’s 1630 and 2000 UTC discussions keep the Ohio Valley on precip-loaded downdrafts, not supercells. PWAT values approaching 2 inches and steep low-level lapse rates can still produce strong or occasionally damaging winds. MD 2302 is the afternoon confirmation that cells are already firing near the state line. Coverage is widely scattered. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit how long any one core lasts.

Overnight flash-flood warnings from Wilmington, Ohio, and Northern Indiana for Mercer County, Ohio, and Grant, Blackford, Adams, and Wells counties, Indiana, have expired. Those counties already took 1.5 to 3 inches before dawn. That water is still on the ground even if the warning product is dead.

Restoration read: wind first if a cluster organizes through early evening, then trees and lines. Water first in the counties that already flooded overnight. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus–Pittsburgh belt before the first new warning, not after it.

Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

This remains today’s organized flood ticket. WPC language still prints 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the south-central Arizona desert including Phoenix and surrounds, the Mogollon Rim, southern Utah slot-canyon country from Zion toward Moab, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language around Ruidoso and similar terrain.

SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 2000 UTC outlook. Water is the story. Gusty outflow is possible. Do not invent a severe-thunderstorm watch here.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Northeastern Utah into far northwest Colorado

Moisture has increased across Utah over the past 24 hours, with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s and PWAT over 1 inch. A band of 35–45 kt southwesterly mid-level flow is enough for a few rotating storms. MD 2303 is the live product on that cell: hail first, isolated wind second, watch unlikely. Grand Junction’s overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County expired before dawn. That scar can still run if another core sits on it.

Restoration read: isolated hail and wind tickets around the Wasatch Front and northeastern Utah valleys if the supercell holds. Burn-scar runoff is a separate life-safety problem from a roof-survey call in Salt Lake, West Valley, Provo, or Orem.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for 15/1200Z–16/1159Z show no tornadoes. Hail included 2.00 inches at Edgerton, Johnson County, Kansas; 1.75 inches west of Cairo, Randolph County, Missouri; 1.50 inches near Alta, Peoria County, Illinois; and 1.00-inch stones at Smyer, Texas, and Richmond, Missouri. Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a nearby plant; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas, and southeast of Hazelton, Kansas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph south of Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Richmond and the Kansas City suburbs (Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, west of Raytown); trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; 65 mph near Wallen, Allen County, Indiana; numerous trees down near Lake Wawasee, Kosciusko County, Indiana; and power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

Kansas City/Pleasant Hill still has river flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new convective watch. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This afternoon treats that corridor as aftermath plus river follow-through.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
East-central IN / central–eastern OH	Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood	SPC Marginal; MD 2302 watch unlikely	Cells live near the state line
Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM	Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today’s organized water ticket
Northeastern UT / NW CO	Isolated hail and gusts, burn-scar runoff	SPC Marginal; MD 2303 watch unlikely	Supercell language this afternoon
NE KS / NW MO / Grand River	River flooding, wind/hail damage	Flood warnings; LSRs last night	Just-hit / in channel
IA / northern IL (tonight)	Training rain after 03Z	WPC Slight along I-80 corridor	Nocturnal pulse still ahead
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 mph is trees, lines, gutters, and isolated roof work — not a regional CAT. Two-inch hail from last night is already a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: the afternoon window is now, not tonight. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. Two MCDs with watch-unlikely tags are not watches. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a hail core in northeastern Utah, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday, valid 171200Z–181200Z) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The 1730 UTC Day 2 discussion leaves room for later low-end wind probabilities near the Appalachians and Ohio Valley but kept the threat too marginal for an outlook area in this update. WPC still has a nocturnal Slight flood overlay from Iowa into northern Illinois late tonight, plus lingering Southwest water. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman, previous Hart/Chalmers); 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2302; Mesoscale Discussion 2303; SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer, 352 AM EDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlooks, September 16, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

Morning desk: Wednesday, September 16 morning Storm Updates. Prior afternoon: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona–New Mexico Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Overnight convection across the south-central Plains into the Midwest produced wind and hail. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah into far northwest Colorado. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus water on the Missouri River system and a new monsoon-style flood ticket in Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0745 AM CDT. Valid 161300Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Akron, Salt Lake City, and Dayton. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language for the period beginning 12Z Wednesday has shifted the organized water story west. The Moderate Risk that covered northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri on Tuesday is now the just-hit and river-flood desk. Today’s Moderate Risk is over southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, with a high-end Slight Risk across much of Arizona into southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Isolated flash-flood prospects remain possible later today across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front.

Hotspot 1 — Indiana into Ohio and the upper Ohio Valley

A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over Illinois and northwest Indiana is forecast to track east across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Mid-level westerlies stay modest, generally 20–30 kt. SPC expects additional convective development this afternoon across parts of Indiana into Ohio as a moist low-level airmass destabilizes. Poor lapse rates aloft should limit updraft strength. Locally damaging winds are the hazard if loosely organized clusters form and spread east through early evening, then weaken with loss of heating.

Overnight LSRs already put trees and lines down in Kosciusko and Noble counties in Indiana, plus a measured 65 mph gust near Wallen in Allen County. Northern Indiana and Wilmington, Ohio, offices issued overnight flash-flood warnings for heavy rain of 1.5 to 3 inches in parts of Grant, Blackford, Adams, Wells, and Mercer counties. Those products expired this morning. The water is still on the ground.

Restoration read: wind first this afternoon if clusters organize. Water first in the counties that already took 2–3 inches before dawn. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Indianapolis–Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning.

Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

This is today’s organized flood ticket. WPC upgraded Day 1 excessive rainfall to Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains. Guidance continues to print 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the Mogollon Rim, south-central Arizona including the Phoenix metro and surrounds, southern Utah slot-canyon country, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language on higher terrain.

SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 1300 UTC outlook. Modest lapse rates, cloud cover, and only marginal deep-layer shear keep the severe-wind/hail threat limited. Gusty outflow is still possible. Water is the story.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 3 — Utah into far northwest Colorado, plus leftover Kansas–Missouri water

On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low over northern California, 35–45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the Great Basin. Ongoing storms over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado are in a strongly sheared but weakly unstable environment. SPC leaves room for isolated severe hail or gusts if cells or small clusters can form with filtered afternoon heating. Limited heating should keep the overall severe risk marginal. Grand Junction issued an overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County; that product expired before dawn.

Kansas and northwest Missouri are no longer the new Moderate Risk. They are the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs include 2.00-inch hail at Edgerton, Kansas; 1.75-inch hail west of Cairo, Missouri; trees, wires, and power poles in Richmond, Ray County; wires down around Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, and west of Raytown; and a small building damaged north of Clifton Hill. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new watch.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail clustered from the Texas South Plains through the Kansas City metro into Peoria County, Illinois (1.50 inches near Alta). Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a plant nearby; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph at Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This morning’s desk treats that corridor as aftermath plus river-flood follow-through.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
IN / OH / upper Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood	SPC Marginal; overnight FFWs expired	Afternoon clusters possible
Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM	Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today’s organized water ticket
Eastern UT / NW CO	Isolated hail/gusts, burn-scar runoff	SPC Marginal	Afternoon cells possible
NE KS / NW MO / Grand River	River flooding, wind/hail damage	Flood warnings; LSRs overnight	Just-hit / in channel
TX South Plains / NW OK / south-central KS	Measured severe gusts, isolated hail	LSRs overnight; no watch now	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Two-inch hail is a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas, and neighboring ZIPs. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. A trough several hundred miles east of Bermuda has only a low chance of development and is not a land threat today. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 holds Slight Risks of excessive rainfall for portions of the north-central Plains, Upper Midwest, and southwestern U.S. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260915 1200 UTC–20260916 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion; National Weather Service warning text including Wilmington OH, Northern Indiana, Grand Junction, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Quad Cities, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 16, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran northern Kansas, southern and eastern Nebraska, and western and central Iowa is the just-hit desk. This morning the Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. The louder national product is flood: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Moderate Risk over portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight wrapping the Kansas City metro and the I-70 corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover wind damage from last night plus a new heavy-rain ticket on already-wet Kansas and Missouri ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Storm Prediction Center convective watch is in effect. Tornado Watch 669, issued late Monday evening, expired at 0500 UTC Tuesday (midnight CDT). Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668 from Monday afternoon is also down. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:28 a.m. CDT) is Marginal only. SPC language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A Slight upgrade was considered for eastern Kansas into Missouri if an organized cluster can form, but the 1300 UTC package left probabilities at Marginal.

WPC’s 0800 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the headline product. A Moderate Risk covers northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips the far southeast corner of Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance centers the heaviest totals just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph, with 2 to 3 inches areal-average and locally 3 to 5 inches possible. Kansas City and the I-70 corridor sit in a high-end Slight. A broader Slight Risk extends south along the cold front on the High Plains and northeast into Midwest counties that already took rain overnight. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

National Hurricane Center: there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and Tropical Depression Norbert are both well out in the Pacific and not a U.S. mainland landfall threat.

Hotspot 1 — Northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri (flood)

This is today’s primary new ticket. WPC coordinated a Moderate Risk with the Topeka and Kansas City weather forecast offices after neighboring counties already saw localized flash flooding earlier in the event. Precipitable-water anomalies of +2 to +3 standard deviations and flash-flood guidance that is already lowered set up 1-inch-per-hour rates after late-afternoon initiation. Best window is late afternoon through tonight as a low-level jet reloads the boundary. Training west-southwest to east-northeast is the mode that fails streets, underpasses, and small creeks first.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and the northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; the Kansas City metro as a high-end Slight, not the Moderate core; far southeast Nebraska along the river.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on a 24-hour clock if cells train over the same ZIP that already took rain Monday night. Do not treat Kansas City as the Moderate core unless WPC or the local office upgrades it later today.

Hotspot 2 — South-central Plains into the Midwest (Marginal wind)

A surface cold front will slide slowly south-southeast across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley through this evening and stall late. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s sit ahead of it from the southern High Plains to the southern Great Lakes. SPC expects storms to develop roughly 20–23Z along much of the front. Loosely organized clusters with damaging wind are the primary severe concern, more so where heating is stronger on the southern and central Plains. Isolated hail is possible if a marginal supercell can hold from eastern Kansas into Missouri. Population under the 5 percent wind contour includes Wichita, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Chicago.

Restoration read: isolated 60 mph-class gusts and trees on service drops, not a regional wind event. Stage in the counties that already have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, not the entire Marginal contour.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest scatter and leftover Iowa water

WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico. Isolated 2 to 3 inch cores on terrain are possible. SPC does not have severe probabilities over the Four Corners this morning; gusty outflow and small hail remain possible but unorganized.

Iowa is yesterday’s and last night’s water still in the channel. NWS Des Moines had a Flash Flood Warning into 9:00 a.m. CDT this morning for parts of Dallas, Madison, Adair, Cass, Audubon, and Guthrie counties after 1 to 3 inches already on the ground. That is extraction work already on the books, not a new watch.

Just hit

Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports from the 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window show a long wind corridor and almost no hail. One landspout was reported near Arboles, Colorado. No tornado path damage is in the filtered LSR set as of this morning desk.

Measured wind highlights overnight: 87 mph 3 NE Guide Rock, Webster County, Nebraska; 83 mph 3 SE Smith Center, Smith County, Kansas; 77 mph 4 NNW Amy, Lane County, Kansas; 76 mph 4 N Kendall, Hamilton County, Kansas, and again 2 NNW Beatrice, Gage County, Nebraska; 75 mph 5 ESE Elmwood, Cass County, Nebraska; 74 mph 4 SW McClelland, Pottawattamie County, Iowa; 73 mph 1 N Shelby, Shelby County, Iowa; 71 mph near Richfield, Morton County, Kansas. Tree and power-line damage reports came in from Cass and Lancaster counties in Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames in Iowa, plus scattered tree work in Hinds County, Mississippi, and a power pole down in Tucson, Arizona. That is Monday night’s wind ticket. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Afternoon through tonight
Kansas City / I-70 corridor	Heavy rain, urban flood	WPC high-end Slight	Tonight
S-central Plains into Midwest	Isolated damaging wind, isolated hail	SPC Marginal	20–23Z initiation
Northern KS / NE / western–central IA	Wind damage, trees, leftover water	LSRs overnight; Watch 668/669 expired	Just-hit / aftermath
SW Iowa (Des Moines CWA)	Flash flood from overnight rain	FFW into 9 a.m. CDT	Morning water
E Arizona / W New Mexico	Terrain flash flood, gusty outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon cells
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the Atlantic	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Last night’s 70–87 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Webster and Smith counties, the Kansas High Plains, Gage and Cass in Nebraska, and Pottawattamie and Shelby in Iowa. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Today’s new ticket is water on the Topeka–St. Joseph axis. Heavy rain on already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa southwest counties that sat under the early-morning flash-flood warning are extraction first, not a new severe-wind desk.

Do not staff the entire SPC Marginal contour as if it were yesterday’s Slight. Yesterday’s Slight verified as a wind line. Today’s organized threat is rainfall rate, not shear.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Watch 669 is expired. SPC left the Day 1 package at Marginal because an organized cluster is still too uncertain. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded intersection north of Topeka or around St. Joseph, a wind swath in an eastern Kansas or Missouri county if a cluster does organize, leftover trees from last night’s Nebraska–Iowa line. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is Marginal again Wednesday morning near the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity for hail and wind on a shortwave. Day 3 is no severe. WPC will reissue the excessive-rainfall outlook later this morning; treat the Moderate contour as live until that update. The next Storm Tracker desk will catch any watch that fires on the Kansas–Missouri boundary this afternoon.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 15, 2026; SPC current watch page (Tornado Watch 669 expired 0500 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 20260914 reporting day; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0800 UTC Tuesday; National Weather Service warning text including Des Moines flash-flood warning IAC001-009-029-049-077-121; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook showing no Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, September 14 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk, Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Saturday, September 12, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse that ran eastern South Dakota into Minnesota has expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666 is down. No convective watches are valid as of mid-morning UTC. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook has upgraded the afternoon and evening corridor to a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is large hail and damaging wind on the Plains, plus interior water where Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight vs what is live this morning

Watch 666 covered southwestern into north-central Minnesota and eastern South Dakota from 6:40 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday. Primary language was scattered large hail, isolated very large hail to two inches, damaging gusts to 70 mph, and a tornado or two if a supercell held together early in the watch. That watch is expired. SPC current watches page as of 12:03 UTC Saturday: no watches valid. Last issued watch remains 666.

What is live this morning is the outlook, not a watch. The 0748 AM CDT Saturday Day 1 convective outlook is valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday. Headline: there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains. Summary language: isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe or damaging winds may occur across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and evening. A separate Marginal Risk corridor remains over the upper Ohio Valley for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon.

WPC’s current Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook, issued 339 AM EDT Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Precipitable water of 2.0 to 2.25 inches is forecast to stream north along the I-95 corridor from Richmond and Washington toward Baltimore and Philadelphia by Saturday evening, then into the New York metro and lower Long Island late Saturday night. That late-night northern end of the slight risk is expected to linger into Sunday (Day 2).

Hotspot 1 — Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into the Ozarks

This is today’s severe ticket. Elevated storms persisted overnight into early morning across southern Nebraska into eastern Kansas and western Missouri on a modest low-level jet. SPC expects that activity to weaken through the remainder of the morning, with some guidance still showing additional development along outflow across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A fairly strong cold front is draped from eastern Colorado into Kansas and northwest Missouri. That boundary is the afternoon focus.

Along and south of the front, a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000–3500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon from the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear of about 30–40 kt is enough for organized updrafts. Isolated robust development along the front is favored around 21–23Z once convective temperatures are reached. Sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large hail, including isolated two-inch-plus stones. Higher-based convection from the eastern Panhandles into southwest and south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma favors scattered severe downdrafts. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. Clustering later this afternoon and evening remains uncertain, but isolated damaging wind may persist into much of Oklahoma and the Ozarks if upstream storms in Kansas and western Missouri stay organized.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Emporia, Liberal, and Derby in the Slight Risk core; Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Kansas City sit in the surrounding Marginal Risk. Restoration read: hail first in the Slight Risk, then wind. Stage tarps and roof kits before mid-afternoon local. If a cell trains on the same ZIP, treat it as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor

This is today’s flood ticket, not the hail ticket. SPC keeps only a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind across parts of the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon in a narrow corridor of filtered heating between denser clouds over Ohio and a stationary boundary to the east. Mid-level lapse rates stay poor. The bigger operational signal is WPC. HREF signals include moderate-to-high chances of three- and six-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and a 20–40 percent chance of three-hour QPF over two inches from the Richmond area late Saturday afternoon, then from northeast Maryland into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York metro and lower Long Island, with that northern end weighted late Saturday night into Sunday.

Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, the upper Ohio Valley; Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, northern New Jersey, New York City, and lower Long Island on the late-day and overnight rain axis. Restoration read: urban street flooding, low crossings, and wet drywall where cells train. The 24–48 hour mold clock starts when water is inside, not when the outlook expires.

Hotspot 3 — Just-hit Upper Midwest and leftover Arizona water

Friday evening’s Slight Risk over far eastern South Dakota into Minnesota verified locally. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday to 1159 UTC Saturday window include a tornado touchdown reported seven miles northeast of Artichoke in Stevens County, Minnesota, around 0051 UTC, plus downed power poles eight miles south of Alberta on County Highway 9. Golf-ball hail (1.75 inches) was reported east and south of Artichoke and south of Alberta. Half-dollar hail fell near Dumont, Herman, Norcross, and Toronto, South Dakota. Wind damage and trees on lines were reported around Chokio, Embarrass and Britt in St. Louis County, Whipholt and Longville in Cass County, and Blue Grass in Wadena County, with one report noting possible tornado damage and large trees blocking County Road 23.

Separate Friday hail and wind clusters hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington and Mansfield, golf-ball hail and trees and poles down), Bexar County, Texas after 0310 UTC (golf-ball hail near Converse), and a long tree-down corridor through South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Arizona flash-flood warnings fired Friday evening over Gila, Coconino, Navajo, Cochise, and Graham Counties, including fire-scar drainages. Those Arizona warnings were evening products; treat them as just-hit water, not today’s new Slight Risk.

Just hit

Minnesota and eastern South Dakota are yesterday’s tickets: hail, trees, poles, and at least one reported tornado touchdown that still needs a damage survey, not a new watch. North Texas and San Antonio-area hail are Friday afternoon and overnight work already on the books. The Carolinas and southern Virginia tree-down scatter is the same. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Kansas–Oklahoma hail and wind corridor plus localized flash flooding from the Ohio Valley onto the Mid-Atlantic I-95 axis tonight.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern KS / northern OK / Panhandles / Ozarks	Large to very large hail, damaging wind, isolated 75+ mph gusts	SPC Slight (core) + Marginal surround	Outlook live; no watch yet
Upper Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging wind; heavy rain / flash flood	SPC Marginal + WPC Slight ERO	Afternoon increase
Mid-Atlantic I-95 (RIC–DC–BAL–PHL–NYC)	Training heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight ERO	Late afternoon through Saturday night
Eastern SD / west-central and northern MN	Hail, trees, poles, reported tornado	Watch 666 expired 10 p.m. CDT Fri	Aftermath / just-hit
North Texas / San Antonio metro	Friday hail and wind	Local LSRs	Aftermath
Southeast AZ fire scars / washes	Flash flood from Friday cells	Expired FFWs	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: formation not expected next 7 days in Atlantic	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Two-inch hail is roof and auto glass work in the Slight Risk counties. Gusts of 60–75 mph are siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A reported tornado near Artichoke, Minnesota, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic heavy rain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Wichita hail and Pittsburgh flooding without checking which county actually has a warning now.

For teams in or near the Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center Atlantic outlook at 800 AM EDT Saturday: tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Norbert is well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is not a U.S. land threat. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a wind-thrown tree in the upper Ohio Valley, a flooded underpass where Mid-Atlantic cells train. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk Sunday afternoon and evening from western New England through the upper Ohio Valley for small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. Day 3 is also Marginal. Fire-weather outlooks are Elevated today and Sunday. The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Slight Risk is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 12, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0748 AM CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; most recently issued Watch 666); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260911 1200 UTC–20260912 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 339 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Weather Service watch/warning text feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 11 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Thursday, September 10, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Thursday, September 10, 2026. Overnight the organized severe pulse from Wednesday’s Slight Risk and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 across northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York has largely expired. The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 outlook has settled into a broad Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms stretching from the southern High Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. The primary threat language is sporadic damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail possible over south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma–Texas Panhandles.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms. No named tropical cyclone currently threatens U.S. land. Restoration exposure today is residual wind and tree work from last night’s Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor, plus fresh flood and wind potential where the cold front and residual moisture continue to fire cells from the southern Plains eastward. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. Watch 665, the last active severe thunderstorm watch covering the Upper Ohio Valley and Lake Erie counties, has expired. SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook places a Marginal Risk across a long corridor from the southern High Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong daytime heating is expected south of residual cloud and overnight storms, with temperatures into the 90s to near 100°F over the southern Plains and upper 80s to mid-90s farther east. That buoyancy, coupled with the residual cold front and outflow boundaries, supports thunderstorms that can produce isolated severe gusts.

The Weather Prediction Center’s updated Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12Z Thursday–12Z Friday) carries a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over a focused area from roughly southeast Ohio into central Kentucky and adjacent portions of West Virginia and Indiana. Broader Marginal Risk areas cover parts of the southern Plains, the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, the Southwest monsoon corridor, and a pocket in the Gulf coastal states.

Hotspot 1 — Residual Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York wind corridor

Wednesday evening’s Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced a series of severe thunderstorm warnings and local storm reports of tree and power-line damage across northern and central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and adjacent counties. Preliminary LSRs include tree and utility damage near Huron and Hartville, Ohio; Edinboro, Pennsylvania; and Chester, West Virginia, among others. The organized severe threat has moved on, but the restoration desk for those counties is still active: downed trees, service drops, and isolated roof or siding work from 50–70 mph gusts.

Cities and counties still in the aftermath window: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Mansfield, and surrounding northern Ohio counties; Erie, Crawford, and northwest Pennsylvania; the northern West Virginia panhandle. Stage remaining tree and tarp crews for daylight surveys and carrier documentation.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri flood pulse

Overnight and early this morning, training storms along and south of the cold front have produced locally heavy rainfall across southeast Kansas into portions of western and central Missouri. National Weather Service offices have issued Flood Warnings and Advisories for Allen, Labette, and Montgomery Counties in Kansas (into midday) and adjacent Missouri counties. Radar-estimated amounts of 1–4 inches, with rates of 1–3 inches per hour in stronger cores, have already produced flooding of low-lying roads, creeks, and poor-drainage areas. WPC’s Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the day is focused farther east into the Ohio Valley, but the Kansas–Missouri corridor remains the live water desk this morning.

Restoration read: extraction and drying work where water entered structures overnight. Photograph damage in daylight, document water lines, and treat any interior water as a same-day priority before the mold clock advances.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk this afternoon–evening

SPC expects the Marginal Risk corridor to re-fire with daytime heating. The primary hazard is sporadic damaging wind gusts from multicell clusters and short line segments along the residual front and outflow boundaries. Isolated large hail is possible over the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Panhandles. Vertical shear is modest overall but sufficient for organized bowing segments farther east where buoyancy is lower but mid-level flow is stronger.

Key population centers under the Marginal Risk umbrella include parts of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, Memphis, Nashville, and the Washington, D.C., corridor, though the risk is scattered rather than continuous. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements are the expected mode of action rather than new watches.

Just hit — overnight LSRs

Preliminary Local Storm Reports from the 1200 UTC September 9 – 1159 UTC September 10 window include:

1.75-inch hail 8 SE of Colorado City, Huerfano County, Colorado (0600 UTC).
Wind gusts of 72 mph near Booker, Lipscomb County, Texas; 70 mph SSE of Mayfield, Sumner County, Kansas; 73 mph near Patagonia, Arizona; and multiple 58–78 mph readings in the Arizona–New Mexico border country and western Kansas overnight.
Numerous tree, limb, and power-line damage reports across northern and central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western West Virginia, and a long swath of eastern Kansas into western Missouri (Baldwin City, Wellington, Clinton, Holden, and surrounding towns).

No tornado reports were received in the preliminary data for this period. All reports remain preliminary and subject to verification.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Northern OH / NW PA / western NY	Residual wind / tree / power damage	Watch 665 expired	Aftermath / just-hit
SE Kansas / south-central Missouri	Flash flood, training heavy rain	Flood Warnings / Advisories active	Live water desk
Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic	Damaging wind, isolated hail	SPC Marginal Risk	Afternoon–evening re-fire
SE Colorado / NE New Mexico / Panhandles	Isolated large hail, strong wind	SPC Marginal (hail-focused)	Afternoon terrain storms
Ohio Valley / central KY (WPC)	Excessive rainfall / flash flood	WPC Slight Risk	Day 1 outlook
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind damage from Wednesday night is already on the books in the Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor—tree removal, roof tarps, and service restoration. Kansas–Missouri flood work is the fresh ticket this morning: extract standing water, document, and start drying before temperatures climb. This afternoon’s Marginal Risk is scattered; the expected mode is isolated warnings rather than a continuous line. Stage for wind and isolated hail in the southern Plains and for additional water if cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley.

Property owners in just-hit counties should photograph damage in remaining daylight if safe, contact the carrier, and begin extraction the same day if water is inside. Teams working the Kansas–Missouri flood pulse should treat every interior water job as time-sensitive.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products show no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin threatening U.S. land; Tropical Storms Lowell and Norbert remain well offshore in the Pacific. The work today is local: residual wind swaths from Wednesday night, flash-flood pockets in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, and scattered severe gusts under a broad Marginal Risk this afternoon and evening.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 outlook already carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of Nebraska into the Upper Midwest on Friday. The cold front will continue to shift east and south, keeping a wet and occasionally strong storm pattern across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the weekend. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal Risk is the end of the corridor.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1300 UTC Thursday, September 10, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 1200 UTC September 9–1159 UTC September 10 period; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid as of early Thursday); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and 94e points text; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text from Wichita, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlooks confirming no Atlantic threats to U.S. land.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 9 storm updates — Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 10, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio–Pennsylvania–Western New York Slight Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

This is a live Wednesday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Wednesday, September 9, 2026. The organized pulse is east of yesterday’s Iowa–Nebraska corridor. A Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms covers central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 is in effect until 11:00 p.m. EDT. Farther west, the Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, with smaller flood-risk pockets in southeast Colorado and the Arizona–New Mexico border country.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure tonight is wind-driven roof and siding work, trees on service drops, isolated hail, and interior water where cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

Watch 665 covers western New York, northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and adjacent Lake Erie waters. Primary threat language is scattered damaging wind gusts to about 65 mph. SPC and NWS discussion also leaves room for a brief tornado, especially if a storm anchors on the surface boundary near the Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York border. Hail is secondary.

A cold front still stretches on the order of a thousand miles from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes toward western New York. That is the same family of storms that wet Iowa and eastern Nebraska on Tuesday. Today the better-organized severe corridor is the eastern Great Lakes. Isolated strong-to-severe cells remain possible from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, with a more disorganized, outflow-dominant mode west of the watch.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western New York

This is the live watch. Storms are expected to increase through late afternoon and evening in a warm, humid boundary layer with enough shear for organized multicells, short line segments, and transient supercells. Mesoscale discussion language from mid-afternoon: a few damaging gusts over the next few hours, brief tornado not ruled out.

Cities and counties to watch: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Parma, Mansfield, Lorain and Medina counties in Ohio; Erie, Crawford, Warren, Mercer, and neighboring northwest Pennsylvania counties; Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany in western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle.

Restoration read: wind first. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before dark. If a cell trains or a warning includes heavy rain, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri, plus leftover Iowa water

WPC’s Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook keeps a Slight Risk from southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri. Guidance still supports training west-to-east overnight and 1-inch-per-hour rates in the better cores. Urban streets, low water crossings, and small streams are the first failures. A smaller slight-risk pocket sits over southeast Colorado early Thursday. Southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico stays in the same excessive-rainfall slight-risk language on monsoon-style cells.

Iowa is not the new Slight Risk today, but it is still a just-hit desk. Flood warnings remain on pieces of the Des Moines system, including the Raccoon River at Des Moines and Walnut Creek. Tuesday’s rain is still in the channel. That is extraction and drying work already on the books, not a new watch.

Restoration read: Kansas–Missouri is tonight’s flood ticket if cells stall. Iowa is yesterday’s water still moving through town. Do not send the same crew to both stories without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Central Plains and Southwest scatter

Widely scattered slow-moving storms over hot, humid air in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas can still throw damaging gusts even when they stay below watch criteria. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements have already fired in the Texas Panhandle and other High Plains counties this afternoon. Southern Arizona and New Mexico higher terrain can produce heavy rain and strong outflow on the same moisture axis as the WPC slight risk.

Southwest Florida holds a marginal heavy-rain pocket in tropical moisture. That is a local urban-flood and lightning desk, not the national headline.

Just hit

Tuesday’s Iowa–Nebraska Slight Risk and the Kauai flood-and-outage work after Hurricane Lowell are yesterday’s tickets. Lowell continues to move away from the islands; there is no new U.S. mainland tropical landfall in the current National Hurricane Center outlook. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Ohio–Erie–western New York wind corridor plus localized flash flooding in the Kansas–Missouri slight-risk area.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this afternoon
Northern OH / NW PA / western NY	Damaging wind, lightning, brief tornado possible	Slight + Watch 665 to 11 p.m. EDT	Live watch
SE Kansas / south-central Missouri	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Slight excessive rainfall	Tonight into Thursday morning
Des Moines / central Iowa rivers	Minor river flooding from Tuesday rain	Flood warnings	Aftermath / still in channel
TX / OK / KS scatter + High Plains	Gusty damaging wind, isolated warnings	Local SVR / SPS	Scattered
SE AZ / SW NM / SE Colorado	Heavy rain, strong outflow	WPC Slight (local)	Afternoon–overnight cells
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 58–65 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Heavy rain on the Kansas–Missouri slight risk is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa water is already inside some buildings from Tuesday.

For teams in or near Watch 665: stage before 5 p.m. local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work tonight, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Ohio or Pennsylvania county, a flooded intersection where Kansas or Missouri cells train, leftover river water in Des Moines. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Thursday the front slides toward the Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Ohio Valley with more wet weather and a continued flood watch in some of the same counties that take storms tonight. Later in the week, SPC language still flags another slight-risk window over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Watch 665 is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 for Wednesday, September 9, 2026; SPC Mesoscale Discussion covering northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania and far western New York; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text for Cleveland, State College, Buffalo, Des Moines, Amarillo, and neighboring offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Related desk: Tuesday, September 8 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 9, 2026