Tag: Iowa

Storm Updates: Gulf Isaias Warnings, Florida Marginal — Thursday, October 8, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Thursday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 8, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed, then the 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook opened two small marginal areas. The live story is not a plains watch. It is Hurricane Isaias, now an 80 mph hurricane in the central Gulf of America, with hurricane and storm surge warnings already up on the northern Gulf Coast for a late Friday or early Saturday landfall.

The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:46 a.m. CDT and valid 1300 UTC Thursday through 1200 UTC Friday, carries a Marginal Risk across parts of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of the Upper Midwest and middle Missouri Valley. SPC had no convective watches in effect at 13:21 UTC. The most recently issued watch is 676, and it is not valid. Today’s SPC storm-report page, covering 1200 UTC Thursday through 1159 UTC Friday, had received no tornado, hail, or wind reports at the morning scan. The overnight 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 7:58 p.m. CDT Wednesday, carried no severe thunderstorm areas through daybreak.

These are county-scale warnings and a named tropical cyclone, not a scattered high-plains hail chase. Restoration exposure through Saturday is surge, wind, and interior water on the central Gulf Coast, plus a localized Florida flood pulse that is already on saturated ground. Conditions change with the next advisory. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 7A, 7:00 a.m. CDT, places Hurricane Isaias near 23.7N 90.6W, about 175 miles north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph. Minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Motion is east-northeast at 9 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. Hurricane Hunters were investigating the storm at advisory time.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Hurricane Warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning covers the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line, Louisiana, to west of Ocean Springs, and east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch continues from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, Florida. No watch or warning changes were made on the 7 a.m. intermediate advisory. Preparations along the warning area should be rushed to completion today. Landfall is forecast along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the coast Friday night.

Peak surge heights above ground, if the peak coincides with high tide: Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, 5 to 7 feet; Mobile Bay, 5 to 7 feet; mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, 3 to 5 feet; Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, 4 to 6 feet; Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, 2 to 4 feet; Lake Pontchartrain, 1 to 3 feet. The deepest water is expected along the immediate coast near and east of landfall, with large waves on top of the surge.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Gulf Coast hurricane warning

This is the warning, not a watch. Hurricane conditions are expected inside the Hurricane Warning Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical-storm conditions beginning Friday. Cities and counties on the warning corridor include Ocean Springs and the Mississippi coast east of there, coastal Alabama including Mobile Bay, and the Florida Panhandle through Bay County: Panama City, Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach, and Lynn Haven sit inside the local hurricane and storm surge warning language from the Tallahassee office. Tropical-storm conditions are expected farther west into southeast Louisiana and farther east toward the Aucilla River.

Rainfall from Friday through the weekend is forecast at 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Amounts of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, and isolated river flooding, are possible. Isolated tornadoes are possible Friday night in coastal Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwestern Georgia, then Saturday across eastern Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida.

Restoration read: surge and wind first, water second. Roof, siding, awning, and porch damage is the Friday-night ticket where hurricane-force gusts verify. Surge flooding is a life-safety event before it is a drying job. Do not stage crews into the warning area once tropical-storm-force winds arrive. The interior water clock starts after the surge recedes and rainfall trains inland Saturday into the Tennessee Valley. Photograph only if it is safe and daylight remains.

Hotspot 2 — Florida Peninsula marginal tornado and flood

SPC’s categorical Marginal Risk on the middle Florida Peninsula is a 2 percent tornado probability, not a wind or hail area. Population centers named on the tornado graphic include Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Lakeland, and Brandon, about 4.2 million people inside roughly 7,900 square miles. Storms are focusing along a convectively reinforced front from the eastern Gulf across the middle Peninsula. Tampa Bay radar wind profiles sampled weak low-level flow with moderate directional turning and a speed increase above 3 km, netting about 25 to 30 knots of effective shear. SPC notes a low-confidence chance of a near-shore waterspout or a brief tornado inland near the front. That is not a high-confidence severe day. It is a brief-spin risk on an already wet front.

The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC and valid 12 UTC Thursday through 12 UTC Friday, keeps a Marginal Risk over much of the Florida Peninsula. A stalled front is still the driver. North Florida soils are fully saturated after consecutive rain days, so light to moderate rain converts to runoff. Isolated flash flooding is most likely where convection develops over a larger city such as Tampa or Orlando. Broader issues are poor drainage and urban streets, not a regional river flood. No Slight or Moderate excessive-rainfall area is on the Day 1 map.

Restoration read: Florida today is extraction on saturated ground and a brief tornado survey if one verifies near the front. It is not the Gulf landfall. Keep the Peninsula crew separate from the Panhandle warning.

Hotspot 3 — Iowa and the middle Missouri Valley tonight

The second Marginal Risk is elevated hail, not a daytime surface outbreak. SPC places a 5 percent hail probability over about 30,100 square miles and 1.7 million people, including Des Moines, Sioux City, Waterloo, Ames, and West Des Moines. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected tonight as warm advection and isentropic ascent increase northeast of a warm front. Moisture is modest. Mid-level moistening on the edge of the Plains elevated mixed layer is enough for a hail threat, not a damaging-wind area. No wind probabilities were drawn on the 1300 UTC outlook.

Restoration read: this is an overnight hail ticket if it verifies, roof and auto glass, not a watch-box wind event. Do not staff it like a Great Lakes slight risk. Check local warnings after dark before rolling.

Watches that expired versus what is still live

No SPC convective watch is live this morning. Wednesday’s afternoon desk already had a closed severe window, and the 0100 UTC update kept that closed through daybreak. The products that are live are tropical, not convective: the hurricane warning, the storm surge warning, the tropical storm warnings, and the storm surge watch listed above. Alaska winter-storm and high-wind warnings are in effect for parts of the Brooks Range, the Bering Strait coast, and the Alaska Range. Those are not the CONUS restoration pulse this desk is tracking.

Just-hit reports from last night are thin. SPC logged no severe reports on the Thursday page at the morning scan, consistent with the no-severe overnight outlook. The just-hit story is intensification, not damage: Isaias was a 65 mph tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon’s desk and is an 80 mph hurricane at 7 a.m. CDT, pressure down to 975 mb. No U.S. landfall has occurred. Swells reach the Yucatan later today and the Gulf Coast on Friday.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NHC / WPC level	Status this morning
Ocean Springs to Bay/Gulf County line	Hurricane wind, surge 5–7 ft, rain 3–7 in	Hurricane Warning; Storm Surge Warning	Live; landfall late Friday or early Saturday
SE Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs; east of Bay/Gulf line to Aucilla River	Tropical-storm wind, surge 3–5 ft west, 4–6 ft east	Tropical Storm Warning	Live; conditions Friday
Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown	Surge 2–4 ft	Storm Surge Watch	Watch, not a warning
Middle Florida Peninsula	Brief tornado or waterspout, urban flood	SPC Marginal (2% tornado); WPC Marginal	Live today; no watch
Iowa / middle Missouri Valley	Elevated hail tonight	SPC Marginal (5% hail)	Tonight; no wind area, no watch
CONUS severe watches	None	No SPC watch valid	Watch 676 expired; overnight outlook was no severe

What this means for restoration teams

Hurricane-force wind on a compact core, only about 15 miles of hurricane-force wind from the center at advisory time, is a narrow damage swath if the core holds, not a multi-state derecho. Tropical-storm winds and surge cover a much wider coast. A 5-to-7-foot surge is structural and contents loss on the immediate coast before it is a dry-out. Rainfall of 3 to 7 inches, locally 10, on the central Gulf Coast is the Saturday water ticket inland of the surge line. Friday-night tornadoes on the Alabama and Panhandle coast are a local survey, not the regional event.

For teams near the Hurricane Warning: finish exterior prep today. Do not plan a Friday-night arrival. Property owners inside the surge warning should follow local evacuation orders. The Florida Peninsula marginal is a separate, smaller desk. Iowa hail is an overnight check, not a morning dispatch.

What this is not

This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe-thunderstorm risk, and it is not an active SPC watch. It is also not a landfall that has already happened. Isaias is still about 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi. East Pacific Tropical Storm Simon is not a U.S. land threat this morning. The work, if it verifies, arrives Friday night into Saturday on the northern Gulf Coast, with a smaller Florida flood and tornado pulse today and an elevated hail chance in Iowa tonight.

Looking ahead

The next complete NHC advisory is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. CDT. Track, intensity, and the warning endpoints can shift before Friday night. SPC’s Day 4–8 outlook, issued 3:21 a.m. CDT, keeps potential too low for a 15 percent severe area through the period, but notes a Sunday shortwave tied to the tropical cyclone crossing the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys toward the Mid-Atlantic, with low predictability on destabilization, and a separate western trough later in the week. The afternoon desk should update the advisory, not assume this morning’s warning line is final.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, October 8, 2026, and the 0100 UTC overnight outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid, updated 13:21 UTC); SPC storm reports for October 8; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC; National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 7A for Hurricane Isaias, 7:00 a.m. CDT. Prior desk: Wednesday, October 7 afternoon storm updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and watches, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for the next Isaias advisory.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 8, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Flood Pulse, Quiet Severe — Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (Morning)

Wednesday morning desk. Florida owns the water. The organized severe window is closed. Not an NWS warning.

This is the Wednesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 7, 2026. Overnight into this morning the severe board stayed empty. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 7:43 a.m. CDT, has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the United States today and tonight. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for much of the Florida Peninsula through 12 UTC Thursday, after a live flood warning on the Jacksonville metro from overnight rain.

These are county- and ZIP-scale flood and river tickets, not a plains outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall this morning. Tropical Storm Isaias is a Friday northern Gulf planning note. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC language at 7:43 a.m. CDT: no tornado, wind, or hail risk areas. General thunderstorm areas remain drawn over parts of Florida, the northern tier into northern New York, and scattered western terrain, but that is thunder coverage, not a severe category. The most recent convective watch on the SPC board is Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676, issued September 30 for west-central Texas. It expired at midnight CDT that night. Nothing replaced it overnight.

West-central Florida is the place SPC is still watching, even with probabilities withheld. The setup looks like yesterday: a weak surface wave and a front from the northeast Gulf east-northeast across the middle of the Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms were already on either side of the front early this morning. The 12 UTC Tampa Bay sounding sampled 2.53 inches of precipitable water, with 70s dewpoints near and south of the front. Cloud cover and ongoing rain keep lapse rates poor and buoyancy thin. Effective shear is generally 25 knots or less. Some low-level veering could support a transient supercell, and waterspout potential exists offshore. SPC says it is unclear whether a tornadic waterspout reaches the west-central Peninsula or whether supercells develop inland. Severe risk stays low unless a later outlook adds probabilities. The next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Northern New York is the other convective note. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms are possible late today and more so tonight as an amplifying upper trough and a cold front approach. Buoyancy is limited. Gusty winds are plausible tonight as low- and mid-level flow increases and lapse rates steepen above the boundary layer. That is a local wind and lightning desk, not a watch.

Hotspot 1 — Florida Peninsula flood pulse

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0831 UTC (5:03 a.m. EDT), keeps a Marginal Risk over much of the Florida Peninsula, valid 12 UTC Wednesday through 12 UTC Thursday. A slow, strong front stays draped across the northern Peninsula. South of it, precipitable water is above 2.25 inches. Light to moderate rain continues along I-4 and generally south of I-10, with localized convection that can stall. The Marginal is there because a cell that hits an urban or flood-prone spot can exceed flash-flood guidance. Four Corners showers this afternoon stay sub-Marginal on the WPC discussion.

The overnight ticket that already verified is Jacksonville. The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued a Flood Warning at 5:20 a.m. EDT for southeastern Duval County and north-central St. Johns County, in effect until 8:15 a.m. EDT. Doppler radar showed heavy rain from thunderstorms. Between 3 and 7 inches had fallen, with up to 2 more inches possible. Locations named in the warning include Jacksonville, Arlington, Ponte Vedra Beach, Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach, Baymeadows, UNF, and Craig Field. Streams were still rising from the last 12 hours of runoff. That warning is short-fuse urban water, not a multi-day river crest.

River warnings are the slower desk. NWS Tampa Bay issued a Flood Warning at 6:34 a.m. EDT for the Withlacoochee at U.S. 41 Dunnellon, affecting Levy, Marion, and Citrus counties, until further notice. Minor flooding. Stage was 28.2 feet at 5:45 a.m. EDT, at flood stage, with docks and boat ramps flooding. The office tied the elevated stage to hydrilla acting like a dam along a 4.5-mile stretch between U.S. 41 and Lake Rousseau, with levels expected to stay steady or rise if more rain falls in the basin. NWS Melbourne continues a Flood Warning for the St. Johns River near Astor, affecting Volusia and Lake counties. At 8:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet, flood stage 2.3 feet, with a rise toward 2.7 feet late this week. Docks, ramps, and low roads nearest the river are the impact language.

Restoration read: Jacksonville Beach through Arlington is the just-hit extraction window if water is inside. Do not wait on a severe watch that is not coming. Dunnellon and Astor are river-bottom and marina tickets, not a new convective outbreak. West-central Florida stays a monitor for a brief waterspout or a stalled cell, not a hail board.

Hotspot 2 — Iowa river aftermath

The Quad Cities office extended minor flood warnings Tuesday evening on the Cedar and Iowa rivers. Cedar River near Conesville, affecting Muscatine and Louisa counties, was at 13.9 feet at 8 p.m. CDT Tuesday, cresting, flood stage 13.0 feet, warning until late Thursday night, with water affecting residences along County Road F70. Iowa River at Oakville was 11.1 feet, flood stage 11.0, expected below flood stage Thursday afternoon. Iowa River at Wapello was 21.5 feet, flood stage 21.0, until Friday morning, with agricultural land and secondary roads in Wapello Bottoms in the impact language. Iowa River at Marengo, Iowa and Benton counties, remains under a warning until late Friday night. These are falling or cresting river tickets from earlier rain, not a new SPC day.

Restoration read: drying and access on the bottoms, not a hail or wind callout. Do not pull a plains severe crew for Louisa County this morning.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the window from 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday show no tornado, hail, or wind reports. Today’s report page, which opened at 1200 UTC Wednesday, is also empty as of this desk. Yesterday’s Marginal tornado area on the west-central Florida coast, and Mesoscale Discussion 2346, did not produce a logged land report. The 0100 UTC Tuesday-night outlook had already pulled severe probabilities after rotating storms weakened approaching the western peninsula shoreline.

The verified overnight hit is water, not wind: 3 to 7 inches in southeastern Duval and north-central St. Johns, with the Jacksonville flood warning still live into the morning commute. Panhandle work from earlier in the week remains aftermath. Nothing new was logged from a convective watch, because none was in effect.

Tropical note — Isaias, not a landfall

National Hurricane Center Advisory 3 at 4:00 a.m. CDT upgraded Tropical Depression Nine to Tropical Storm Isaias. Center near 22.0 N, 94.1 W, about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Movement east-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Minimum pressure 1004 mb. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. NHC says interests on the Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should monitor the storm, and that hurricane watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later today.

Forecast track: pass north of the Yucatan on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, with Isaias expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Rainfall on U.S. land is a Friday-through-weekend item, not this morning’s ticket: 3 to 6 inches, localized up to 10, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, and 1 to 3 inches, localized up to 5, across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash, urban, and isolated river flooding will be possible then. Swells reach the Gulf Coast late this week. Offshore hurricane and tropical-storm warnings are already on Gulf marine zones. That is marine, not a coastal warning for land. Hurricane Rachel is in the eastern Pacific, well west of Baja California, and is not a U.S. land threat this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Jacksonville metro / St. Johns	Urban flood, standing water, stream rise	NWS Flood Warning until 8:15 a.m. EDT; 3–7 inches overnight	Just hit, warning still live
Florida Peninsula	Training rain, urban flooding, brief waterspout offshore	WPC Marginal excessive rain; SPC no severe area	Live flood pulse; severe low
Withlacoochee at Dunnellon	Minor river flooding, docks and ramps	NWS Flood Warning until further notice	Live, hydrilla-elevated stage
St. Johns at Astor	Minor river flooding	NWS Flood Warning continues	Rising toward late week
Cedar and Iowa rivers	Minor river flooding, bottoms roads	NWS flood warnings into Thursday–Friday	Aftermath, cresting or falling
Northern New York	Low-topped storms, gusty wind tonight	SPC general thunder, no severe area	Late today into tonight
Northern Gulf / Isaias	Future wind, surge, 3–6 inches Friday–weekend	NHC TS, 40 mph; no land watches yet	Planning note, not a today landfall

What this means for restoration teams

This morning’s work is water that already fell. Three to seven inches in southeastern Duval and north-central St. Johns is wet drywall, soaked lower cabinets, and a 24–48 hour mold clock if water crossed the threshold. Standing water on Beach Boulevard corridors and low lots is an access problem before it is a rebuild. Photograph in daylight only if it is safe. Turn around, don’t drown.

Dunnellon and Astor are slower. Marina docks, ramps, and the first roads off the river are the exposure, not a roof-tarping line. Iowa bottoms are the same class of ticket farther north: agricultural land and secondary roads, residences along County Road F70 near Conesville if the stage holds. Do not staff those as a severe-wind event.

West-central Florida does not earn a severe board until SPC draws one. If a waterspout comes ashore, it is a narrow coastal survey, not a regional callout. Northern New York gusts tonight, if they verify, are tree-on-line and light roof work on a limited buoyancy profile.

Isaias is not a roll-today storm. Hurricane watches may come up later today for part of the northern Gulf coast. Friday is the approach day on the current NHC track, with the heavier rain from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle after that. Stage the planning conversation. Do not pull crews off the Jacksonville flood warning for a center that is still about 580 miles southwest of the Mississippi mouth.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day and not a convective watch morning. SPC logged no severe reports overnight. It is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Offshore hurricane warnings on Gulf marine zones are for waters, not for a coastal county warning yet. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is Florida urban water, two Florida river gauges, and leftover Iowa river flooding.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 outlook, issued late Tuesday night, also has no severe thunderstorm areas for Thursday. Isolated low-topped storms are possible from the upper Hudson Valley into Maine, with very small hail not ruled out under cold temperatures aloft. Florida keeps scattered afternoon storms in rich moisture as Isaias strengthens over the central Gulf, but Thursday severe is not expected on that outlook because of weak shear and poor lapse rates. The change to watch is NHC: hurricane watches likely later today for a portion of the northern Gulf coast, then the Friday approach. The afternoon desk should say whether SPC added a Florida severe probability and whether a land watch is up.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Wednesday, October 7, 2026 (7:43 a.m. CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; last issued watch 676, September 30); SPC preliminary local storm reports for October 6 and October 7; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0831 UTC October 7; National Weather Service flood products from Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Melbourne, and Quad Cities; National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory 3, 4:00 a.m. CDT October 7.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for Isaias. Prior desk: Storm Updates: West-Central Florida Marginal Tornado — Tuesday, October 6, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 7, 2026

Storm Updates: Florida Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse — Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Tuesday morning Storm Tracker desk for October 6, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe window stayed closed. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 convective outlook, updated 7:45 a.m. CDT by Guyer and Dean and valid 1300 UTC Tuesday through 1200 UTC Wednesday, carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The summary line is short: organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today. The restoration ticket is water on a sagging Florida front, not a watch box. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. SPC’s watch page, updated 13:20 UTC Tuesday, lists none. The most recently issued watch is still Severe Thunderstorm Watch 676. No mesoscale discussion is driving a severe box this morning. SPC’s storm-report page for the new convective day, 1200 UTC Tuesday through 1159 UTC Wednesday, shows no tornado, hail, or wind reports received. The prior convective day, 1200 UTC Monday through 1159 UTC Tuesday, also closed with no tornado, hail, or wind reports.

The only severe note on the Day 1 discussion is the central Florida Peninsula. Showers and some thunderstorms are common early today near a residual front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Peninsula. A weak surface low is expected to develop over the northeast Gulf, and some guidance advertises an increase in low- and mid-level flow late today into tonight. Early wind profiles are otherwise weak. The 12z Tampa Bay sounding is the reference. Shear-optimistic scenarios could support brief, transient rotation offshore. Destabilization inland is questionable: thin CAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates, about 5 to 5.5 C/km. SPC kept that below a probability. The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC.

Watches that expired overnight versus what is still live

Nothing convective expired overnight because nothing convective was valid. The 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook, written by Squitieri at 7:47 p.m. CDT Monday, already said organized severe thunderstorms were not forecast through tonight, with showers and thunderstorms continuing from the Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula and only isolated lightning possible over the Great Basin, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

The product that did expire was a flood warning, not a watch. National Weather Service Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Gadsden County in the Big Bend at 1:53 a.m. EDT, in effect until 5:00 a.m. EDT. At 1:51 a.m. EDT, Doppler radar indicated light rain remaining, with flooding already occurring. Between 7 and 11 inches had fallen, and another half inch to an inch was possible. Towns named in the polygon included Quincy, Midway, Havana, Greensboro, Gretna, Santa Clara, and Quincy Airport. That warning is off the board this morning.

A Special Marine Warning from Tallahassee at 2:48 a.m. CDT covered waters from the Okaloosa-Walton county line to Mexico Beach, 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore, until 4:45 a.m. CDT. Radar indicated a nearly stationary severe thunderstorm 24 nautical miles southeast of Okaloosa Deep Water Reef, or 29 nautical miles southwest of Panama City Beach, capable of waterspouts and gusts of 34 knots or greater. The text said the storm would remain over mainly open waters. That marine warning has expired. It is not a land tornado report, and SPC logged none.

What is still live is a Flood Watch, not a convective watch. National Weather Service Jacksonville at 1:12 a.m. EDT put a Flood Watch in effect from 10 a.m. EDT this morning through this evening for portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. The Florida zones include coastal and inland Duval, coastal and inland Nassau, coastal and inland Flagler, eastern Clay, eastern Putnam, and coastal and inland St. Johns. Georgia coverage is coastal and inland Camden County. Named cities run from Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Yulee, and St. Augustine to Palatka, Palm Coast, Orange Park, Kingsland, and Woodbine. The watch calls for heavy rainbands off the Atlantic and locally 3 to 5 inches through the afternoon and early evening.

Hotspot 1 — Florida and far southeastern Georgia

This is the only excessive-rainfall polygon on the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 map. The outlook was updated 0821 UTC Tuesday, valid 12 UTC Tuesday through 12 UTC Wednesday. Wegman’s discussion at 4:30 a.m. EDT keeps a Marginal Risk for much of Florida and far southeastern Georgia. A very slow front sags south from Georgia and Alabama into north Florida. Dry, cool air sits north of it. A tropical, moisture-rich air mass sits south of it. WPC expects a widespread 1 to 3 inches over much of north Florida, with slow-moving tropical showers and embedded thunderstorms. Soils are saturated from prior days. The risk stays Marginal because the terrain is flat, rainfall rates are limited by marginal instability, and swampy ground should handle most of the rain. The isolated flood threat is aimed at urban and poor-drainage spots. Training cells can still produce more widely scattered flash flooding, hit and miss.

That is a step down from Monday afternoon, when the lower Texas coast still carried a small Marginal after a Slight was dropped, and a Marginal still covered the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Florida, and eastern Georgia. This morning the Texas coast is off the Day 1 excessive-rainfall map. Florida holds the ticket.

Restoration read: Gadsden County is the just-hit water desk. Quincy, Havana, and Midway are the towns named in a warning that expired before dawn, with 7 to 11 inches already indicated. Treat interior water found this morning as last night’s rain. The day work is the Jacksonville Flood Watch corridor if Atlantic rainbands sit on Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, St. Augustine, or Kingsland. Staff pumps and drying equipment for poor drainage. Do not staff it as wind or hail. A Marginal excessive-rain risk is not a Slight severe risk.

Hotspot 2 — leftover river water, not a new pulse

River products already on the board are not the same as a flash-flood warning. National Weather Service St. Louis at 11:32 p.m. CDT Monday kept minor flooding on the Mississippi River at Louisiana, Missouri, stage 15.1 feet against a 15.0-foot flood stage, in effect until Wednesday afternoon, with a fall below flood stage expected this morning. The Missouri River near Chamois remains under a flood warning until Tuesday evening; the Monday morning stage was 17.0 feet at a 17.0-foot flood stage. National Weather Service Kansas City extended a flood warning for the Missouri River at Miami until Wednesday morning, with a fall below the 18.0-foot flood stage expected late this morning.

National Weather Service Quad Cities at 8:14 p.m. CDT Monday extended several Iowa warnings. The Wapsipinicon River near De Witt was at 12.0 feet against an 11.0-foot flood stage, with moderate flooding occurring and a crest of 12.7 feet forecast early Thursday; that warning runs until Monday afternoon, October 12. The Cedar River near Conesville was at 13.5 feet against 13.0, until late Thursday night. The Iowa River was in minor flood at Oakville, Wapello, and Marengo. National Weather Service Mobile holds a flood warning for the Shoal River near Crestview, in effect from Tuesday evening to late Thursday night, with a forecast rise above the 8.0-foot flood stage this evening to a crest of 8.2 feet early Wednesday. The St. Mary’s River at Macclenny, on the Florida-Georgia line, was at 12.7 feet Monday evening against a 12.0-foot flood stage, with a crest of 13.0 feet expected this evening and a warning until Thursday evening. National Weather Service Key West continues a coastal flood statement for the Florida Keys through Tuesday evening for minor saltwater flooding of low streets at high tide.

Restoration read: these are channel and tide tickets from earlier rain, not this morning’s convective pulse. Iowa river bottoms and the Shoal River rise are separate from the Florida front. Do not fold them into a severe claim.

Quiet severe pulse and the Gulf note

There is no Plains or Midwest severe desk this morning. The overnight outlook had surface high pressure setting in from the Great Lakes to the East Coast as an upper trough ejected into the Atlantic. Isolated thunderstorms were the only non-Florida convective note, and they did not produce logged wind, hail, or tornado reports.

Tropics are not a named U.S. land desk this morning. No named cyclone is threatening the mainland or is on the coast from an overnight landfall. The National Hurricane Center 8:00 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook says showers and thunderstorms are organizing with a broad low over the southwestern Gulf of America, tagged AL92. A tropical depression is anticipated over the next day or so while it drifts east. Formation chances are 90 percent through 48 hours and 90 percent through 7 days. NHC says the disturbance is expected to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week, and that it is too early for specific impacts. Interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should monitor it. A NOAA Gulfstream flight is scheduled later today and an Air Force reconnaissance flight tomorrow. That is a development note, not a landfall warning and not a named-storm file. The tropical-storm language on the national watch page overnight was an eastern Pacific offshore-Mexico waters forecast, not a Gulf Coast product.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
North Florida / far SE Georgia	Training rain, urban flood	WPC Marginal; no SPC severe area	Live; 1–3 inches, locally more
NE Florida / Camden County GA	Atlantic rainbands	JAX Flood Watch 10 a.m.–evening EDT	Live; locally 3–5 inches
Gadsden County FL (Quincy, Havana)	Just-hit flood	Warning expired 5 a.m. EDT	Aftermath; 7–11 inches indicated
Offshore Panama City Beach	Waterspout, marine gusts	Special Marine Warning expired 4:45 a.m. CDT	Open water; no land LSR
Central Florida Peninsula	Storms on residual front	No severe probability	Rotation threat kept offshore
Iowa rivers (Wapsipinicon, Cedar, Iowa)	Minor to moderate river flood	Flood warnings into late week	In channel, not a new pulse
Mississippi at Louisiana MO; Missouri River	Minor river flood	Flood warnings	Near or falling through flood stage
Shoal River near Crestview; St. Mary’s at Macclenny	River rise	Flood warnings	Crests tonight into Wednesday
Florida Keys	Minor saltwater flooding	Coastal flood statement through evening	High-tide streets
Southwestern Gulf (AL92)	Possible tropical depression	NHC 90% / 90%; not named	Monitor; not a land file yet

What this means for restoration teams

There is no wind or hail box to stage against. The morning work, if it is already inside a building, is Gadsden County water from a warning that expired before dawn. The day work is extraction timing if rainbands sit on the Jacksonville watch corridor, plus any poor-drainage street in north Florida that does not clear under the Marginal. Photograph standing water only if the road is clear. Turn around, don’t drown.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on flat, saturated ground is not the same job as a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Staff pumps, moisture meters, and drying equipment. Do not staff tarps for a watch that does not exist. River statements in Iowa, on the Missouri and Mississippi, and on the Shoal and St. Mary’s are separate from today’s front. They are slow water already in the channel.

What this is not

This is not a severe outbreak and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. SPC’s categorical map is empty. No convective watch is valid. No preliminary tornado, hail, or wind report is on yesterday’s or today’s SPC log. AL92 is a high-chance disturbance that has not been named and has not put a tropical watch on the northern Gulf Coast. The local-storm pattern this desk should staff is training rain on a sagging Florida front, a just-hit Big Bend flood warning that expired, and leftover river water.

Looking ahead

SPC’s next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. WPC’s Day 1 window runs through 12 UTC Wednesday. The front stays the story across Florida. If AL92 becomes a tropical depression and turns toward the northern Gulf Coast later in the week, that becomes a tropical desk only after NHC names it or puts a watch on the coast. Until then it is a development note, not an overnight hit.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, October 6, 2026, and the current convective watch page (no watches valid, stamp 13:20 UTC); SPC today’s storm reports and yesterday’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0821 UTC; National Weather Service watch, warning, and advisory text for Tallahassee, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Kansas City, Quad Cities, Mobile, and Key West; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, October 5 — Texas Coast Marginal Flood, Quiet Severe Pulse.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and the WPC excessive-rainfall page for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

October 6, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains Slight Risk, Kansas Tornado Window — Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The organized desk is back on the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Plains. No convective watches are currently valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains and the Corn Belt.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood corridors, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The National Hurricane Center’s last advisory on Polo said the remnants dissipated over northwestern Mexico. Restoration exposure today is wind-driven roof and tree work on the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, a conditional tornado window on the Kansas warm front, and interior water where cells train on already-wet ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC outlook (issued 7:57 a.m. CDT, valid 1300 UTC Wednesday through 1200 UTC Thursday) upgrades Day 1 to a Slight Risk over about 82,000 square miles covering parts of southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and a separate corridor through central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska. A broader Marginal wraps Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Wichita, Norman, and Midland. Forecasters Guyer and Bentley: thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, some hail, and a brief tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A few tornadoes and localized wind damage are also possible across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.

No Storm Prediction Center convective watches are currently valid. The watch page last listed Watch 674 as the most recently issued product; that watch is not today’s product and is not in effect this morning. Any new watch this afternoon would be a new number. Today’s SPC local-storm-report board (1200 UTC Wednesday through 1159 UTC Thursday) is empty as of this desk. That is expected before the diurnal window.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0800 UTC Wednesday, valid 12Z Wednesday–12Z Thursday) keeps Moderate Risk language on two corridors: the Front Range into the southern Plains, and the central Plains into the Corn Belt. HREF neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches run 60–90 percent from the Lower Trans Pecos to the central Red River Valley, with a 2–4 inch, locally 6 inch footprint from northern Kansas toward Omaha and Des Moines south of I-80.

Overnight into this morning

Tuesday night’s 12Z-to-12Z LSR board is the just-hit file. Two tornado reports came in from the Texas Panhandle after midnight UTC: a social-media video tornado 3 miles south-southeast of Claude in Armstrong County at 0012 UTC (7:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday), position estimated via radar by NWS Amarillo; and a tornado 7 miles west-northwest of Timbercreek Canyon in Randall County at 0245 UTC (9:45 p.m. CDT), reported south of State Highway 335 west of I-27, on the ground 3–4 minutes and then roped out. Those are preliminary reports, not damage surveys.

Severe wind also verified on the same night: 67 mph at Roswell Air Center (KROW) in Chaves County, New Mexico, at 0033 UTC; 60 mph 2 miles northeast of Roswell at 0037 UTC; and 65 mph 6 miles west-northwest of Denver City in Yoakum County, Texas, at 0324 UTC, with additional measured gusts near 59 mph around 10:22 p.m. CDT. No hail reports were logged on that board. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already had the Southwest flood-and-Marginal frame; last night added the Panhandle tornado and New Mexico/west Texas wind tickets.

Hotspot 1 — Southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, Edwards Plateau

This is the higher-confidence diurnal severe corridor. SPC expects early-day convection across the southern Plains to weaken or shift north by early afternoon, then redevelop late afternoon into evening ahead of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Heating of a very moist airmass should push MLCAPE near or above 1,500 J/kg from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Supercells are possible at first. Front-parallel flow and increasing coverage favor a more linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts are the most likely hazard. Isolated hail is more plausible across southwest Texas. A localized brief tornado threat can increase in the evening as effective storm-relative helicity rises in the moist environment.

Cities and counties to watch: Lawton, Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Midland on the Marginal fringe, and the Edwards Plateau counties that sit under the Slight contour. An isolated severe threat could linger into parts of central Texas and Oklahoma overnight before buoyancy collapses east of the front.

Restoration read: wind first, water second. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews before the late-afternoon initiation, not after the first warning. If a line trains on already-wet ground, treat the same ZIP as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska

SPC upgraded this corridor on the 1300 UTC package. A rather strong low-level jet (50-plus knots diurnally) is forecast to shift northeast across central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska or southwest Iowa by evening. Destabilization near the warm front may stay weak because of clouds, ongoing rain, and poor mid-level lapse rates. The upgrade is about 0–1 km and 0–3 km wind profiles that stay supercell-conducive even if CAPE stays muted. Multiple tornadoes are treated as a viable possibility, not a high-confidence outbreak.

Cities to watch: Topeka under the Slight population list; Wichita under the Marginal wrap; the I-70 and Kansas River counties; the Nebraska state-line counties toward Omaha. Flood Watch language was already in play overnight for parts of north-central and northeast Kansas through Thursday afternoon, with 2–4 inches widespread and locally around 6 inches in the wetter cores.

Restoration read: this is the tornado-and-water overlap. A brief tornado is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey. Training rain on the same warm front is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Do not send the same crew to a wind ticket and a flooded basement without checking which county actually has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Rockies, Front Range, and the Corn Belt flood overlay

WPC keeps a Moderate flood risk from the Sangre de Cristos and San Juan Range into the Front Range as northeasterly upslope persists on the northwest side of the surface low. Antecedent wet soils raise the flash-flood probability. Additional 2–4 inches, locally higher, is the working range, with two heavy periods: morning and again in the evening as the surface low intensifies.

Farther northeast, the Corn Belt Moderate sits on a southwest-to-northeast axis from northern Kansas through Omaha into Des Moines, generally south of I-80. Hourly rates of 1–2 inches in the better cores, with some repeating action on the warm front. North of the warm front the rates drop and the flash-flood signal cuts off. That is urban streets, low-water crossings, and small streams first — then finished basements if the same cell trains twice.

Just hit

Claude and Randall County, Texas, tornado reports and the Roswell / Denver City wind gusts are last night’s tickets. They sit under yesterday’s Marginal from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is farther east and north: the southwest Oklahoma–northwest Texas–Edwards Plateau wind corridor, the Kansas warm-front tornado window, and the Moderate flood footprints on the southern Plains and the Kansas–Nebraska–Iowa axis.

Polo is not a U.S. landfall desk this morning. NHC’s last forecast/advisory (number 38, 0300 UTC Wednesday) placed the remnants near 30.5°N 108.0°W over northwestern Mexico and forecast dissipation by 12Z Wednesday. Hanna is an open-Atlantic tropical storm well east of the mainland. Neither is a restoration staffing problem for the CONUS this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
SW OK / NW TX / Edwards Plateau	Severe wind, isolated hail, brief tornado	SPC Slight	Afternoon–tonight initiation
Central/eastern KS into SE NE	A few tornadoes, localized wind, training rain	SPC Slight + WPC Moderate flood	Conditional; no watch yet
Red River Valley / west-central TX	Flash flood, merging clusters	WPC Moderate	Late afternoon into Thursday morning
KS–Omaha–Des Moines (south of I-80)	Flash flood, 1–2 in/hr cores	WPC Moderate	Afternoon through overnight
Southern Rockies / Front Range	Upslope heavy rain, flash flood	WPC Moderate	Morning and evening pulses
TX Panhandle / Chaves County NM	Tornado and wind LSRs from Tuesday night	Yesterday’s Marginal	Just-hit / survey
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling hurricane	Polo dissipated over NW Mexico	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

A Slight Risk is not a watch and not a warning. It is the afternoon and evening probability field. Wind at severe criteria is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A brief tornado, if one occurs in Kansas or on the Edwards Plateau, is a narrow swath. Heavy rain on the two Moderate flood corridors is extraction the same night and a mold clock by Friday.

For teams in southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and the Kansas warm-front counties: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Property owners should photograph damage in remaining daylight only if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on the Front Range and Corn Belt crossings.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is gone over northwestern Mexico. Hanna is in the central Atlantic. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind swath through a Texas or Oklahoma county, a brief tornado on the Kansas warm front, a flooded intersection where cells train on the Red River or south of I-80. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next Day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Day 2 on the SPC page is already a Marginal. Watches, if they come, will most likely fire late afternoon on the southern Plains and early evening on the Kansas warm front. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s empty watch list is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (no watches valid as of 1313 UTC Wednesday); SPC local storm reports for 20260929 (overnight) and 20260930 (today, empty after 12Z); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0800 UTC Wednesday; National Hurricane Center remnants of Polo forecast/advisory 38. Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Prior desk: Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, New Mexico–West Texas Marginal — Tuesday, September 29, 2026.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 30, 2026

Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, Midwest Flood Leftovers — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker for September 20, 2026. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have all expired. The Storm Prediction Center’s 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible in a broader Marginal Risk from the southern Plains across the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

The flood story is leftover water, not a new Moderate Risk. Weather Prediction Center’s current Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is a Slight Risk over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, plus a separate Slight over the northern High Plains focused on southwest South Dakota. Flash Flood Warnings fired overnight into this morning from eastern Iowa and the Quad Cities through southeast Ohio and the Charleston–Huntington corridor in West Virginia.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood polygons. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm Fay is well southwest of the Azores. Tropical Storm Odalys is well southwest of Baja California. Verify the county warning at weather.gov before you roll.

What expired overnight vs what is live

Watch 670, issued Saturday afternoon over Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, expired at 0400 UTC Sunday (11:00 p.m. CDT Saturday). Watch 671 expired at the same hour. Watch 672, issued after 8:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expired at 0600 UTC Sunday (1:00 a.m. CDT). No convective watch is in effect as of this morning desk.

NWS warning text from Saturday evening still shows the pulse that those watches covered: a 61 mph gust at Childress, Texas; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over Childress and Collingsworth Counties in the Texas Panhandle; western Oklahoma counties including Harmon, Greer, and Beckham; west-central Kansas around Wichita, Wallace, Logan, and Greeley Counties with radar-indicated golf-ball hail; and a line that warned St. Joseph, Atchison, and neighboring Kansas–Missouri counties. Those products have expired. They are last night’s just-hit list, not today’s watch board.

SPC’s storm-report table for the new convective day (1200 UTC Sunday onward) showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs at the time of this desk. That is consistent with a quiet pre-dawn after the watches died. Afternoon initiation is the next check.

Hotspot 1 — Oklahoma Slight Risk, afternoon and evening

SPC: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma. A frontal zone that convection modulated overnight over the eastern Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will sag south. Mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints and heating support moderate buoyancy by mid-afternoon. Deep-layer shear is enough for organization.

The 1300 UTC outlook added an intensity Level-1 wind corridor over parts of southern Oklahoma where HREF/REFS guidance clustered 60–80 mph gusts on very steep 0–3 km lapse rates. Cities in or next to the Slight: Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Norman, Lawton, Wichita Falls. Storms are expected to develop from the Low Rolling Plains and Red River Valley and move northeast into central and eastern Oklahoma. Mixed mode early, with a chance the wind threat maximizes if a line segment organizes toward evening.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, glass, and tree crews for late afternoon, not after dark. Southern Oklahoma is the gust corridor if the Level-1 language verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas

A mid-level shortwave moves into the central High Plains today. Easterly low-level flow north of the front holds 50s dewpoints. Heating should remove inhibition by mid-to-late afternoon. Forecast soundings show straight hodographs and sizable CAPE in the hail-growth layer. A few supercells are the favored mode. Primary hazard is large hail, 1 to 2.5 inches, plus isolated severe gusts. Some lingering severe risk may drift into southeast Colorado late this evening and the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

Lamar sits inside the tighter probabilistic contour. Watch the I-70 and High Plains county warning areas from late afternoon. Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. Vehicle and roof claims, not a flood headline, unless a cell trains on a burn scar or a small basin.

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers

Yesterday’s WPC Moderate Risk over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana has been stepped down. The current Day 1 ERO, updated 0819 UTC Sunday and valid 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday, is a Slight Risk from southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri east into the Ohio Valley, with a second Slight over southwest South Dakota. Overnight convection is why Flash Flood Warnings were still live into Sunday morning for the Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids and eastern Iowa, Parkersburg–Athens, Hocking–Pickaway–Ross, and the Charleston–Huntington counties.

WPC language: the threat wanes from west to east this morning into early afternoon as the back edge of the rain moves off. Farther east, overnight convection near the Ohio River toward West Virginia terrain lowered flash-flood guidance. Some guidance rebuilds moderate-to-heavy rain later. Valley moisture supports locally 2–5 inch totals where cells train.

SPC also keeps a Marginal Risk from the Ozarks east into the Ohio Valley for isolated severe gusts and hail this afternoon south of a front near the I-70 corridor. That is a secondary wind desk, not the Slight.

Restoration read: Iowa, northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, southeast Ohio, and northwest West Virginia are extraction and drying work from last night. Check which county still has a warning. Do not treat the whole corridor as a new Moderate flood day.

Just hit

Saturday night’s organized pulse was the Kansas–Oklahoma–Texas Panhandle watch complex plus the Midwest and Ohio Valley rain. Documented hits in official warning text include the Childress airport gust near 61 mph and severe-warned storms over the eastern Panhandle, western Oklahoma, west-central Kansas hail cores, and the St. Joseph–Atchison line. Flood polygons stacked from eastern Iowa through the Ohio River counties overnight. Those tickets are already on the books.

Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma afternoon Slight and the High Plains hail corridor. The Midwest is aftermath plus a declining Slight flood overlay.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC level	Status this morning
Oklahoma / Red River	Severe wind, large hail	SPC Slight; Level-1 wind southern OK	Outlook — afternoon/evening
Eastern CO / far western KS	Large hail, isolated wind	SPC Slight	Outlook — mid/late afternoon
Ozarks to Ohio Valley	Isolated wind, hail	SPC Marginal	Outlook
SE Iowa / N Missouri / Ohio Valley	Flash flood leftover, urban water	WPC Slight ERO	Waning west to east
SW South Dakota / northern High Plains	Heavy rain	WPC Slight ERO	Today into tonight
Watches 670 / 671 / 672	Wind and hail Saturday night	Expired 0400–0600 UTC	Just-hit
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. land	Fay (Azores), Odalys (SW of Baja)	No U.S. land threat	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Oklahoma this afternoon is a wind-and-hail stage. If the southern Oklahoma Level-1 gust corridor verifies, expect roofs, siding, and trees in a relatively small footprint — staff it as county work, not a regional event. The High Plains Slight is hail first. Midwest and Ohio Valley crews already have water in buildings from Saturday night. The mold clock on those interiors started last night, not this afternoon.

Do not send the same crew to Tulsa hail and Cedar Rapids extraction without checking which county actually has a warning now. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall and not a Moderate flood day on the current WPC map. Fay and Odalys are named and far from U.S. land. Last night’s watches are closed. Today’s organized severe risk is two compact Slight areas plus a wide Marginal. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next official Day 1 convective update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. The front continues south through Oklahoma tonight. Isolated severe risk may linger into the Oklahoma Panhandle after dark. WPC flood risk over the Midwest should keep easing from west to east unless new training rebuilds on the Ohio Valley side. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300 UTC Slight is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 20, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (Watches 670, 671, 672 expired); SPC storm reports for 19–20 September 2026; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0819 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watch/warning text; National Hurricane Center public advisories for Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Odalys.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday, September 19 afternoon Storm Updates. Local flood polygons posted overnight live under the same Storm Tracker category.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas Slight Risk + Midwest–Montana Flood Moderate — Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Saturday, September 19, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down across the Carolinas and Upstate South Carolina, dumped 1.00–1.50-inch hail on the Utah Wasatch Front and Four Corners, and produced brief tornado or landspout reports near Fruit Heights and Uintah County, Utah. This morning the organized work is water: flash-flood warnings and just-hit rain of 3 to 7.5 inches in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, with a Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall still draped over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, plus a second Moderate pocket over southern Montana.

The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains, valid 1300Z Saturday through 1200Z Sunday. Summary language: scattered severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening, focused on Kansas. No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was #0669, now expired. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific. A subtropical Atlantic disturbance near the Azores is not a U.S. land threat.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is interior water where overnight cores trained, then late-day Kansas wind and hail if the Slight Risk verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No SPC severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is up at 12:23 UTC Saturday. Friday’s Carolina wind pulse and Utah/Four Corners convection are yesterday’s tickets now sitting as LSRs. What is still live is hydrologic: overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southern Fillmore County, Minnesota; Clayton and Fayette Counties, Iowa; and Dubuque, Jackson, Jo Daviess, and Stephenson Counties on the Iowa–Illinois line. La Crosse and Quad Cities language overnight cited 1–3 inches already down in the Iowa warnings and 3–7.5 inches in the Minnesota flood statements, with a mudslide reported on Highway 76 west of Caledonia and water over the road at Beaver Creek Valley State Park.

Flood Watches remain through Sunday morning across portions of southwest and south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. A separate Flood Watch covers south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, through Sunday afternoon, including burn-scar flash-flood language. Heat Advisories continue into this evening over parts of southeast Kansas and central through southwest Missouri, with heat-index values near 100–105°F — that is a crew-safety overlay on the same Plains corridor that later gets the Slight Risk.

Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)

This is today’s new severe desk. The 1300Z outlook, issued 7:25 a.m. CDT by Smith/Mead, places a Slight Risk over parts of the central Plains. The 15-percent hail contour covers about 34,700 square miles and 1.33 million people, with larger centers listed as Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, and Manhattan. The 15-percent wind contour is a bit larger and also takes in St. Joseph, Missouri. A categorical intensity-level-1 wind overlay (60–75 mph gusts) sits where HREF guidance, precipitable water, and steep low-level lapse rates overlap. A 5-percent wind area fans out as far as Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta — that is the isolated-gust envelope, not the Slight Risk core.

A cold front still runs west-southwest to east-northeast from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and will ease south. Seasonably moist air ahead of it over Kansas, Missouri, and northwestern Oklahoma should become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon. Storms are expected late afternoon into early evening as CIN erodes. Steep 0–3 km lapse rates (8.5–9.5°C/km) favor vigorous cores and evaporative cooling. A few short-lived supercells are possible in the Kansas vicinity given adequate speed and directional shear. Large hail rides with the stronger updrafts. The threat should diminish during the evening.

Farther west, models still build storms near and east of I-25 this afternoon, then grow a loosely organized band — including some supercells — into a linear cluster crossing eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Fifteen-percent wind probabilities were added over eastern Colorado for that mode. Low severe-wind probabilities continue into western Kansas late evening if the cluster holds together.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and the I-70 / I-35 corridor in Kansas; St. Joseph and the western Missouri fringe; eastern Colorado Front Range and High Plains east of I-25; Amarillo and Enid sit in the broader wind-probability field but are not the Slight Risk bullseye.

Restoration read: stage tarps and glass/roof kits for late afternoon, not after the first warning. Hail on the 15-percent contour is vehicle and shingle work. Wind at 60–75 mph is trees on service drops and isolated roof peel. Do not let the Heat Advisory talk you out of hydration and early staging — that air mass is the same one feeding the storms.

Hotspot 2 — Midwest Moderate excessive rainfall (already hitting)

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0844 UTC Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of the Midwest, particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. That is the same corridor that took overnight Flash Flood Warnings. Additional 1–2 inches were still possible in the Iowa–Illinois warnings as of 4:19–5:54 a.m. CDT. Flood Watches through Sunday morning over southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio keep the water story open after the current warnings expire.

Southeastern Minnesota is the just-hit core: 4–7.5 inches in Fillmore and Mower Counties with flooding on Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson, water over County 57 / Minnesota 56, trees washed onto Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and I-90 between mile markers 193 and 204 in the statement footprint. Houston County statements cited 5–7 inches and a mudslide west of Caledonia. Those are extraction and roadway-closure jobs already on the books.

River flooding leftover from earlier in the week still sits on the Saint Marys and Wabash in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, with moderate flooding forecast near Decatur and Fort Wayne. That is channel water, not this morning’s flash-flood cores.

Restoration read: Minnesota–northeast Iowa–northwest Illinois is today’s water ticket. Photograph interiors in remaining daylight only if it is safe. The Moderate Risk means another training band can reload the same ZIPs this afternoon. Do not send the Kansas hail crew and the Dubuque water crew as one story.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Montana Moderate flood + High Plains leftover wind

WPC upgraded parts of southern Montana to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. Discussion cited anomalously high moisture, a slow-moving mid-upper low, and deterministic QPF near 3.5 inches with high-end CAM scenarios of localized 7–8 inches if instability verifies. NWS Billings holds a Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for all of south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, with explicit burn-scar flash-flood language. A separate Flood Watch covers a slice of northeast Montana (Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, Wibaux).

Overnight High Plains wind already verified on the west side of this pattern: 66 mph near Burlington, Colorado; 67 mph southeast of Evansville, Wyoming; 63 mph northwest of Ruleton, Kansas; 69 mph north-northwest of McDonald, Kansas; 64 mph north of Hastings, Nebraska; trees and snapped poles in Cheyenne County, Kansas. Those are Friday night LSRs, not a live watch.

Restoration read: Montana is a flood-and-burn-scar desk, not a wind desk. High Plains wind damage from last night is already on the ground in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Today’s new wind threat there is the late-day cluster coming off the Front Range.

Just hit

Friday’s Carolinas–Georgia Marginal Risk verified as a wind pulse. Official LSRs include a 69 mph gust at Greensboro (GSO) and 66 mph at Fayetteville (KFAY), plus a long string of trees and wires down from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, Moore, Johnston, Wake, Cumberland, Harnett, Catawba, and Pender Counties in North Carolina into York, Spartanburg, Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson Counties in South Carolina. Shingles and siding damage was reported west-southwest of Statesville. A landspout lofted debris at Lighthouse Point, Broward County, Florida, mid-afternoon Friday. That is a local Florida ticket, not the national headline.

Utah and the Four Corners took the hail and brief-tornado reports: 1.50-inch hail at Kaysville and west of Farmington, Davis County; 1.00-inch hail at Farmington, New Mexico, and Dinosaur / Massadona, Moffat County, Colorado; a tornado report near Fruit Heights, Davis County, from video showing rotation and lofted debris; a landspout report 15 miles east-southeast of Naples, Uintah County. Those cells are down. The work is already there.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Central / eastern Kansas	Severe wind 60–75 mph, large hail, short-lived supercells	SPC Slight (1300Z)	Outlook only — no watch yet
Eastern CO into western KS	Damaging gusts as storms go linear	15% wind / isolated severe	Late afternoon–evening
E Iowa / N Illinois / N Indiana	Flash flood, training rain	WPC Moderate ERO	Live overnight FFWs; risk continues
SE Minnesota (Fillmore, Houston, Mower)	Just-hit 4–7.5″ rain, roads, mudslide	FFW / flood warning overnight	Aftermath + residual water
SW MI / N IN / NW OH	Additional flooding possible	Flood Watch through Sunday morning	Watch live
Southern / SE Montana + Sheridan WY	Heavy rain, burn-scar flash flood	WPC Moderate + Flood Watch	Today into Sunday
Carolinas / Upstate SC	Trees, wires, 66–69 mph gusts	Friday Marginal — verified	Just hit / cleanup
Wasatch Front / Four Corners	1.00–1.50″ hail, brief tornado/landspout reports	Friday convection	Just hit
Ohio Valley / southern Appalachians / Southeast	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC 5% wind / local SVR possible	Afternoon scatter
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone threatening land	NHC: no TCs	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Water is the morning job. Minnesota and the Iowa–Illinois line already have interior and roadway flooding from overnight cores. A Moderate ERO means those same counties can take another round. Kansas is the afternoon job: hail and 60–75 mph wind if the Slight Risk fires on schedule. Montana is a separate flood-and-burn-scar desk with a multi-day watch. Carolina wind and Utah hail are Friday night tickets still waiting on adjusters.

For teams on the Kansas Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Heat-index values near 100–105°F on the Missouri–southeast Kansas Advisory are a crew-safety constraint, not a reason to ignore the outlook.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up as of mid-morning UTC Saturday. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail and wind swath through a Kansas county, another flooded intersection where Iowa or northern Illinois cells train, burn-scar runoff in southern Montana, leftover trees in the Carolinas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 remains a Slight Risk. WPC Day 2 eases the Midwest and Ohio Valley to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall as the axis slides east. Flood Watches in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Montana run through Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the overnight Minnesota warnings were the last water of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0725 AM CDT); SPC Current Watches page updated 12:23 UTC Saturday (no watches valid; last watch #0669); SPC Local Storm Reports for 18/1200Z–19/1159Z; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0844 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text from La Crosse, Quad Cities, Northern Indiana, Billings, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Saturday (no tropical cyclones; Azores disturbance is not a U.S. land threat).

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 18 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 19, 2026

Storm Updates: Carolinas–Georgia + Iowa Marginal, Upper Mississippi Flood Slight — Friday, September 18, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Friday, September 18, 2026. Overnight convection dumped tennis-ball hail on Bingham County, Idaho, knocked power lines down near Lewisville, and forced National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls and Rexburg areas that expired before dawn. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, across Iowa, over parts of the central High Plains, and again in the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover hail and interior water in eastern Idaho, isolated damaging gusts on the Carolina Piedmont and in Iowa this afternoon, and training rain from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0719 AM CDT. Valid 181300Z–191200Z. Headline: an isolated severe risk later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. Categorical risk is Marginal over about 171,000 square miles and roughly 21 million people. Wind is the shared 5 percent contour. A 2 percent tornado contour sits over north-central Iowa (Ames, Ankeny, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown). A 5 percent hail contour remains over the Salt Lake City–Provo corridor.

No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is in effect. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Watch 669, already expired. Today’s 1200 UTC–onward local storm report page is empty as of this desk: no tornado, hail, or wind reports on the new cycle yet. Last night’s work is on the September 17 cycle.

WPC’s 1034 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over the Upper Mississippi Valley (southern Minnesota into Wisconsin and adjacent Iowa/Illinois) and a separate Slight over southwest Montana. Marginal flood pockets cover leftover Southwest terrain, the northern High Plains, South Florida and the Keys, a Midwest/Great Lakes corridor, and the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance still supports 2 to 4 inches in the better Upper Midwest swath.

The National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Atlantic outlook and companion eastern and central Pacific outlooks list no tropical cyclones. That sentence stays off the restoration board unless NHC names something that threatens U.S. land.

Overnight into this morning

Thursday’s SPC report cycle (1200 UTC September 17 through 1159 UTC September 18) is the just-hit file. One brief tornado was reported 11 miles north-northeast of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska, around 0034 UTC. Hail clustered on eastern Idaho: 1.00 to 1.75 inches around Blackfoot, Shelley, Firth, Moreland, and Menan; 2.50 inches (tennis ball) one mile north-northeast of Rose in Bingham County; 1.25 inches at Gannett in Blaine County; 1.00 inch east of Alton in Bear Lake County. Utah added 1.50 inches at Midway in Wasatch County. Nebraska High Plains added 1.50 inches east-southeast of Broadwater. Missouri picked up 1.00 inch near Saint Paul in St. Charles County.

Wind: power lines down in Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; 61 mph at the INL rover south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees and shingles near Saint Paul, Missouri; a 59 mph gust at Truth or Consequences, New Mexico; trees down in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana; a large tree on Yalta Drive in Beavercreek, Ohio; several large trees in Ashland, Kentucky, with one person injured and transported when a tree fell. Overnight flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls area (until 2:00 AM MDT) and the Rexburg area (until 2:45 AM MDT) have expired. Those were water jobs on eastern Idaho drainages after the same hail cores, not a new watch this morning.

Hotspot 1 — Carolinas into northern Georgia

A cluster of weak thunderstorms this morning over Kentucky and West Virginia rides south on northerly flow around a mid-level high over the Ark-La-Tex. SPC expects rejuvenation near convective outflow along the Virginia–North Carolina border, then scattered storms over the Piedmont into northern Georgia as the boundary layer heats. Isolated 50–60 mph gusts are the advertised threat. Cities inside the Marginal contour include Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Atlanta.

Restoration read: wind first, not a tornado outbreak. Stage tarps and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. This is a scatter of cores, not a watch-boxed line.

Hotspot 2 — Iowa and the Upper Mississippi Valley

A front lies from the lower Ohio Valley west into the mid Missouri Valley, with a weak surface low over western Nebraska. Lower-70s dewpoints sit south of the boundary. SPC favors thunderstorms over Iowa into far southern Minnesota where heating and low-level forcing erode inhibition. Primary hazard is marginally severe gusts. Enlarged hodographs near the warm front leave a localized chance of a couple of weak, short-lived supercells — that is the 2 percent tornado contour, not a Slight Risk upgrade. Upscale growth late evening would drift toward the southwest Great Lakes and lose buoyancy.

WPC’s Slight Risk is the organized water ticket. A disturbance tracking out of the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin can support 2–4 inches where the low-level jet blossoms the rain shield. That is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock in the better swaths, not a river-flood headline yet.

Restoration read: Iowa wind this afternoon, Minnesota–Wisconsin water tonight. Do not staff both with the same crew without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains

A mid-level trough crosses the Intermountain West. Dewpoints in the 50s from northern Utah into western Wyoming valleys, MLCAPE 1000–1200 J/kg, and moderate shear support isolated severe gusts and hail again late afternoon and evening — the same corridor that just put tennis-ball hail on Bingham County. On the High Plains, a vorticity maximum over New Mexico may help isolated storms grow into a small eastward cluster over eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, with isolated severe gusts on outflow.

Southwest Montana sits under WPC’s second Slight Risk after Thursday’s cell behavior and ensemble 2-inch QPF. Rates can still beat flash-flood guidance even if storms stay progressive. Residual Marginal flood language covers New Mexico and Arizona terrain for one more diurnal cycle.

Just hit

Eastern Idaho hail, the expired Idaho Falls and Rexburg flash-flood warnings, the Garden County brief tornado, and the Ashland, Kentucky tree injury are yesterday’s tickets. Thursday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already carried the Idaho–Utah Marginal and Dakotas flood Slight on the prior Day 1 package. This morning desk moves the live outlook east onto the Carolinas and Iowa and slides the flood Slight onto the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Carolinas / northern GA	Isolated 50–60 mph gusts	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
Iowa / southern MN	Gusts; localized brief tornado	SPC Marginal; 2% tornado	Afternoon into evening
Southern MN / WI / adjacent IA–IL	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight	Today’s organized water ticket
Northern UT / ID / WY valleys	Isolated hail and severe gusts	SPC Marginal (5% hail UT)	Late afternoon–evening
E CO / SW NE / NW KS	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Evening cluster possible
Southwest Montana	Flash flood on progressive cells	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening
Bingham / Jefferson / Madison ID	Hail, wires, expired FFWs	Aftermath	Just-hit desk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling cyclone	NHC quiet	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Idaho hail is already on cars, windows, and roofs in Bingham County. That is same-day emergency board-up and a multi-day supplement fight, not a forecast. Carolina and Iowa wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work if cores verify. Upper Mississippi Valley rain is extraction and drying if 2–4 inch swaths land on saturated ground. A 2 percent tornado contour is a narrow, short-lived threat — staff it as a local damage survey if a warning verifies, not as a regional event.

For teams near Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Des Moines, Ames, or the Salt Lake valley: stage before peak heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk convective day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind-damaged street on the Piedmont, a brief spin-up near an Iowa warm front, another hail core in a Utah or Idaho valley, a flooded underpass in southern Minnesota or Wisconsin. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday’s Day 2 outlook is already a Slight Risk of scattered severe wind and hail over portions of the central Plains, with isolated severe storms possible from the High Plains and central Rockies into the Midwest and Southeast. Sunday is Marginal. Day 4–8 has no 15 percent areas. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker for the 1630 UTC Day 1 update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead); SPC current watches page (none valid; last watch 669); SPC local storm reports for 20260917 and 20260918; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 1034 UTC Friday; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook; National Weather Service Pocatello flash-flood warning text for Idaho Falls and Rexburg, now expired.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates: Idaho–Utah Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight. Related overnight posts: Idaho Falls flash-flood warning and Rexburg flash-flood warning.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 18, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Missouri Flood Moderate, Plains–Midwest Marginal — Tuesday, September 15, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran northern Kansas, southern and eastern Nebraska, and western and central Iowa is the just-hit desk. This morning the Storm Prediction Center holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest. The louder national product is flood: the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Moderate Risk over portions of northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri, with a high-end Slight wrapping the Kansas City metro and the I-70 corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood cells, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover wind damage from last night plus a new heavy-rain ticket on already-wet Kansas and Missouri ground. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No Storm Prediction Center convective watch is in effect. Tornado Watch 669, issued late Monday evening, expired at 0500 UTC Tuesday (midnight CDT). Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668 from Monday afternoon is also down. The 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:28 a.m. CDT) is Marginal only. SPC language: strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A Slight upgrade was considered for eastern Kansas into Missouri if an organized cluster can form, but the 1300 UTC package left probabilities at Marginal.

WPC’s 0800 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the headline product. A Moderate Risk covers northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri and clips the far southeast corner of Nebraska along the Missouri River. Guidance centers the heaviest totals just north of Topeka toward St. Joseph, with 2 to 3 inches areal-average and locally 3 to 5 inches possible. Kansas City and the I-70 corridor sit in a high-end Slight. A broader Slight Risk extends south along the cold front on the High Plains and northeast into Midwest counties that already took rain overnight. A separate Slight Risk remains over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico on monsoon-style cells.

National Hurricane Center: there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E and Tropical Depression Norbert are both well out in the Pacific and not a U.S. mainland landfall threat.

Hotspot 1 — Northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri (flood)

This is today’s primary new ticket. WPC coordinated a Moderate Risk with the Topeka and Kansas City weather forecast offices after neighboring counties already saw localized flash flooding earlier in the event. Precipitable-water anomalies of +2 to +3 standard deviations and flash-flood guidance that is already lowered set up 1-inch-per-hour rates after late-afternoon initiation. Best window is late afternoon through tonight as a low-level jet reloads the boundary. Training west-southwest to east-northeast is the mode that fails streets, underpasses, and small creeks first.

Cities and counties to watch: Topeka and the northeastern Kansas counties north of I-70; St. Joseph and neighboring northwest Missouri counties; the Kansas City metro as a high-end Slight, not the Moderate core; far southeast Nebraska along the river.

Restoration read: water first. Extraction and drying on a 24-hour clock if cells train over the same ZIP that already took rain Monday night. Do not treat Kansas City as the Moderate core unless WPC or the local office upgrades it later today.

Hotspot 2 — South-central Plains into the Midwest (Marginal wind)

A surface cold front will slide slowly south-southeast across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley through this evening and stall late. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s sit ahead of it from the southern High Plains to the southern Great Lakes. SPC expects storms to develop roughly 20–23Z along much of the front. Loosely organized clusters with damaging wind are the primary severe concern, more so where heating is stronger on the southern and central Plains. Isolated hail is possible if a marginal supercell can hold from eastern Kansas into Missouri. Population under the 5 percent wind contour includes Wichita, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Chicago.

Restoration read: isolated 60 mph-class gusts and trees on service drops, not a regional wind event. Stage in the counties that already have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, not the entire Marginal contour.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest scatter and leftover Iowa water

WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona and the western half of New Mexico. Isolated 2 to 3 inch cores on terrain are possible. SPC does not have severe probabilities over the Four Corners this morning; gusty outflow and small hail remain possible but unorganized.

Iowa is yesterday’s and last night’s water still in the channel. NWS Des Moines had a Flash Flood Warning into 9:00 a.m. CDT this morning for parts of Dallas, Madison, Adair, Cass, Audubon, and Guthrie counties after 1 to 3 inches already on the ground. That is extraction work already on the books, not a new watch.

Just hit

Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports from the 1200 UTC Monday to 1159 UTC Tuesday window show a long wind corridor and almost no hail. One landspout was reported near Arboles, Colorado. No tornado path damage is in the filtered LSR set as of this morning desk.

Measured wind highlights overnight: 87 mph 3 NE Guide Rock, Webster County, Nebraska; 83 mph 3 SE Smith Center, Smith County, Kansas; 77 mph 4 NNW Amy, Lane County, Kansas; 76 mph 4 N Kendall, Hamilton County, Kansas, and again 2 NNW Beatrice, Gage County, Nebraska; 75 mph 5 ESE Elmwood, Cass County, Nebraska; 74 mph 4 SW McClelland, Pottawattamie County, Iowa; 73 mph 1 N Shelby, Shelby County, Iowa; 71 mph near Richfield, Morton County, Kansas. Tree and power-line damage reports came in from Cass and Lancaster counties in Nebraska, Clarinda and Ames in Iowa, plus scattered tree work in Hinds County, Mississippi, and a power pole down in Tucson, Arizona. That is Monday night’s wind ticket. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Kansas–Missouri Moderate Risk.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NE Kansas / NW Missouri / SE Nebraska	Flash flood, training heavy rain	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Afternoon through tonight
Kansas City / I-70 corridor	Heavy rain, urban flood	WPC high-end Slight	Tonight
S-central Plains into Midwest	Isolated damaging wind, isolated hail	SPC Marginal	20–23Z initiation
Northern KS / NE / western–central IA	Wind damage, trees, leftover water	LSRs overnight; Watch 668/669 expired	Just-hit / aftermath
SW Iowa (Des Moines CWA)	Flash flood from overnight rain	FFW into 9 a.m. CDT	Morning water
E Arizona / W New Mexico	Terrain flash flood, gusty outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon cells
Atlantic vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the Atlantic	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Last night’s 70–87 mph gusts are roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work in Webster and Smith counties, the Kansas High Plains, Gage and Cass in Nebraska, and Pottawattamie and Shelby in Iowa. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. Today’s new ticket is water on the Topeka–St. Joseph axis. Heavy rain on already-wet ground is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Iowa southwest counties that sat under the early-morning flash-flood warning are extraction first, not a new severe-wind desk.

Do not staff the entire SPC Marginal contour as if it were yesterday’s Slight. Yesterday’s Slight verified as a wind line. Today’s organized threat is rainfall rate, not shear.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Watch 669 is expired. SPC left the Day 1 package at Marginal because an organized cluster is still too uncertain. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded intersection north of Topeka or around St. Joseph, a wind swath in an eastern Kansas or Missouri county if a cluster does organize, leftover trees from last night’s Nebraska–Iowa line. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is Marginal again Wednesday morning near the Great Salt Lake / Salt Lake City vicinity for hail and wind on a shortwave. Day 3 is no severe. WPC will reissue the excessive-rainfall outlook later this morning; treat the Moderate contour as live until that update. The next Storm Tracker desk will catch any watch that fires on the Kansas–Missouri boundary this afternoon.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, September 15, 2026; SPC current watch page (Tornado Watch 669 expired 0500 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 20260914 reporting day; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0800 UTC Tuesday; National Weather Service warning text including Des Moines flash-flood warning IAC001-009-029-049-077-121; National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook showing no Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Monday afternoon, September 14 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 15, 2026

Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran the upper Ohio Valley into New York is down. No Storm Prediction Center watches are currently valid. The Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0746 AM CDT holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. The Weather Prediction Center overlays a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on central and southwestern Iowa, with a broader Slight Risk from eastern Nebraska through the Midwest and a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest monsoon corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind and hail on the Nebraska–Iowa Slight, interior water where Iowa cells train south of I-80 tonight, and leftover tree-and-roof work from Sunday evening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC lists no current convective watches. The most recently issued watch was number 667 earlier in the week; Sunday’s Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor produced local severe thunderstorm warnings and wind damage but did not carry an overnight watch into Monday morning.

The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook (valid 1300Z Monday through 1200Z Tuesday) draws the Slight Risk from roughly Grand Island and Hastings east-northeast through Omaha and Lincoln into western and central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro on the eastern edge. A Marginal Risk wraps a wider ring from the Dakotas and Minnesota south through Kansas. Elevated convection is already ongoing this morning across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley on a strong low-level jet. SPC expects that band to stay mostly sub-severe and weaken late morning, then a new surface-based corridor to fire along or just ahead of a cold front across eastern Nebraska by late afternoon.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0733 UTC, is the louder product this morning: Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, with locally 3 to 6 inches possible south of I-80 toward Des Moines and points southwest. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from eastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota and the Door Peninsula, plus a separate Slight over eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

This is today’s organized severe desk. A mid-level shortwave and 50–70-plus kt mid-level jet move east-northeast across the northern Plains. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream north into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa after morning convection clears. SPC allows a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE if surface temperatures reach the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Initial storms should be supercellular enough for large hail. Mode is expected to transition quickly to clusters and line segments. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet supports ample storm-relative helicity this evening; a sustained surface-based supercell would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. That is the official language, not a guarantee that one occurs.

Cities and counties to watch: Lincoln, Omaha, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Des Moines, Ames, and the I-80 belt from Grand Island through western Iowa. Watch issuance, if it comes, is an afternoon product — not a morning one.

Restoration read: hail and wind first on the Nebraska side; water second once the same storms cluster over Iowa after dark. Stage tarps and generators before 4 p.m. local. If a warning includes both wind and heavy rain, treat the ZIP as a dual ticket by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood overlay

WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for D1 in coordination with the Des Moines office. HREF blended mean QPF runs 3–5 inches over the area encompassing Des Moines and points south and southwest. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches are 60–80 percent in that pocket, with 25–30 percent for more than 5 inches. Three-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance sits 50–70 percent. The main concerns are urban footprints and low-water crossings south of I-80. Heavy rain is expected to linger into early Tuesday morning.

A broader Slight still covers eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Isolated flash-flood concerns this morning ride the progressive elevated band; the more appreciable footprint is the evening and overnight wave.

Restoration read: this is tonight’s water ticket. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water is inside. Do not wait for a river flood warning if streets and finished basements are already taking the 1-inch-per-hour cores.

Hotspot 3 — Sunday just-hit and Southwest scatter

Overnight LSRs from the 1200 UTC Sunday–Monday window show the Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor verified as wind, not tornadoes. Preliminary reports include a roof ripped off a home and multiple trees down in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; trees and wires across Lawrence, Butler, Crawford, McKean, and Clearfield counties in Pennsylvania; trees on structures and roads in Washington County, Ohio, and Wood County, West Virginia; and additional tree and wire damage in Onondaga, Oneida, Franklin, Fulton, and Saratoga counties in New York. Isolated 1.00-inch hail fell near Monarch and Raynesford, Montana, and 2 south of Sterling, Nebraska, after midnight. A 61 mph gust was measured near Patagonia, Arizona.

Today the Southwest stays a flood-and-outflow desk. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado on monsoon-style cells, burn scars, and slot canyons. SPC does not carry 5 percent severe probabilities there, but isolated strong gusts and small to near-severe hail are possible where heating is strongest. Eastern North Carolina sits under a cold front with only a low-end isolated wind/hail mention.

Just hit

Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–central New York Slight Risk is yesterday’s ticket: trees, wires, and isolated roof work from eastern Ohio through northwest Pennsylvania into central New York. Watch 667 from Saturday is long expired. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this morning. National Hurricane Center discussion shows no Atlantic tropical cyclones; Tropical Storm Norbert and a weakening eastern Pacific depression are well offshore and not a mainland or Hawaii landfall problem today.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Eastern NE / western–central IA	Large hail, damaging wind, few tornadoes possible	SPC Slight (1300Z)	Afternoon–evening; no watch yet
SW / central Iowa south of I-80	Flash flood, 3–6″ local totals	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Evening into Tuesday morning
OH / PA / WV / NY from Sunday	Trees, wires, isolated roof damage	LSRs; watches expired	Aftermath
Eastern CO / western–northern KS	Isolated severe gusts, high-based cells	SPC Marginal	Afternoon scatter
AZ / NM / SW CO	Flash flood, strong outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening cells
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Eastern Nebraska this evening is hail and wind: roofs, siding, screens, and vehicles. Western and central Iowa is the dual ticket — the same storms that throw hail west of the Missouri River can train 3-plus inches of rain over Des Moines and counties southwest of I-80 after dark. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath. Staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional outbreak.

Sunday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York wind is already on the books: tree-on-structure, service drops, and isolated roof peel. Photograph remaining damage in daylight if it is safe, then move crews toward the Nebraska–Iowa corridor rather than chasing last night’s counties unless a specific claim is already open.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an eastern Nebraska county, a flooded intersection south of I-80 in Iowa, leftover trees in Ohio or New York. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk as the same trough lifts toward the Upper Great Lakes. Day 3 currently carries no severe area. WPC language keeps heavy rain lingering into early Tuesday over the same Iowa footprint. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300Z Slight is the last line of the day — a watch can still go up if the warm sector destabilizes as drawn.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, September 14, 2026 (Gleason/Lyons); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1010 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 13/1200Z–14/1159Z window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific discussions this morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon, September 13 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Sunday, September 13, 2026. Overnight into this morning the south-central Plains watch expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is no longer valid. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and a second Marginal Risk across the central and northern High Plains, valid 131300Z–141200Z.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Kansas wind and hail from last night, plus an afternoon wind corridor from Ohio into western New York and the Northeast if the front organizes. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Watch 667, covering portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday. That watch is expired. SPC’s 0744 AM CDT Sunday discussion (Gleason/Lyons) expects isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front by mid-afternoon (around 19–22Z) from parts of Ohio into western New York, then spreading quickly east across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for supercells at first and a marginal, isolated hail threat despite poor lapse rates aloft. Clusters and bowing segments with isolated damaging wind are the more likely mode once linear forcing of the front takes over. Confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities. Convection should weaken this evening as it moves into a less unstable airmass.

A separate Marginal Risk sits from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late afternoon, with elevated storms possible later tonight across western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley. Isolated hail and wind are the language there, not a watch.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast

This is today’s live outlook corridor, not a live watch. A surface cold front tracks east under a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet. Seasonably moist low-level air is in place, but poor mid-level lapse rates and cloud cover should keep instability marginal. That is why this is a Marginal Risk and not a Slight.

Cities and counties to watch this afternoon and evening: Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, and neighboring Ohio counties; Pittsburgh and the western Pennsylvania ridge; Buffalo and western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle. SPC lists a Day 1 Marginal footprint of about 163,000 square miles and roughly 22.7 million people, with Columbus, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Buffalo named in the risk-area list.

Bands of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms were already ongoing this morning across New Jersey into southern New York and New England. Most guidance keeps that activity elevated over land. Trends still get monitored for any surface-based instability over Long Island and southern New England.

Restoration read: wind first if cells organize after 3 p.m. local. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York strip before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Water is secondary unless a cell trains on ground already wet from Saturday’s Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic rain.

Hotspot 2 — Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Panhandle just-hit

Watch 667 is the overnight ticket, not today’s new watch. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from the 12 UTC Saturday–12 UTC Sunday window include 2.00-inch hail north of Coldwater in Comanche County, Kansas, and northwest of Wilmore in Kiowa County around 0010–0015 UTC; golf-ball hail earlier near Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; and measured wind of 84 mph at Chanute Martin Johnson Airport (KCNU) at 0545 UTC, with power outages and tree branches down in Chanute and utility poles near Galesburg in Neosho County. Additional measured gusts of 75 mph on the Kansas mesonet east-southeast of Acres in Clark County, 64 mph near Darrouzett in Lipscomb County, Texas, and snapped poles and a grain auger south of Perryton, Texas, sit in the same family.

Those are already claims. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The new work today, if it verifies after 13 UTC Sunday, is isolated damaging wind on the Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk plus isolated High Plains hail and wind.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains and leftover water

A closed mid- and upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning moves toward the northern Rockies and High Plains. Destabilization is limited. A narrow upslope corridor from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle is the afternoon cell area. Elevated storms may increase later tonight over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley, with isolated hail on the first development.

Saturday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook carried a Slight Risk over portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and southern Arizona, with the northern New Jersey–New York City–Long Island piece weighted toward late Saturday night into Sunday. That water is already in streets, small streams, and some interiors. Treat leftover flood statements as aftermath, not a new national headline, and check the current WPC Day 1 map and local NWS flood products before you assign a crew.

Just hit

Saturday’s Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk and Watch 667 produced the hail and wind listed above. Pennsylvania tree and wire reports from Saturday afternoon in Washington, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Indiana, Jefferson, and Greene counties are already on the books from the previous flood-and-wind pulse. A Flagler County, Florida, landspout near Palm Coast and an EF-0 survey east of Spring Grove in Surry County, Virginia, are local Saturday reports, not today’s organized corridor.

The National Hurricane Center discussion this morning shows no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land. The Atlantic remains quiet for a named-storm landfall. A central Atlantic wave is being monitored at low odds and is not a U.S. mainland desk item this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Upper OH Valley / Northeast	Isolated damaging wind, brief hail	SPC Marginal (Day 1 1300 UTC)	Outlook live; no watch
Central / northern High Plains	Isolated hail and wind	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon into tonight
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle	Wind to 84 mph, 2-inch hail overnight	Watch 667 expired	Just-hit / claims
OH Valley–Mid-Atlantic water	Flash flood leftover from Saturday Slight ERO	Local flood products	Aftermath; verify county
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling named storm	NHC quiet on the coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

An 84 mph airport gust and snapped poles are roof, siding, tree-on-structure, and service-drop work in Neosho, Comanche, Kiowa, Clark, and neighboring Kansas counties plus the Perryton, Texas, corridor. Two-inch hail is vehicle and roof claims on a narrow path. Today’s Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk is a thinner wind desk: isolated gusts, not a regional derecho. Staff it as county warnings, not a multi-state surge.

Water from Saturday night into Sunday morning along the I-95 and upper Ohio Valley axis is a 24–48 hour mold clock if it is already inside. Do not send the same crew to Chanute wind and a Pittsburgh or northern New Jersey water job without checking which county still has a warning.

What this is not

This is not a live severe thunderstorm watch and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this morning is leftover Kansas and Texas Panhandle wind and hail. The work this afternoon, if it comes, will be scattered wind along the front from Ohio into the Northeast and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Monday (Day 2) the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late afternoon into evening across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa — an isolated severe storm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster, near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, and Ames. Destabilization along a northward-retreating front remains the uncertainty. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s Marginal Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0814 UTC Sunday; most recently issued watch 667); SPC today’s storm reports for the 20260912 1200 UTC–20260913 1159 UTC window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook language covering Saturday into early Sunday; National Hurricane Center Atlantic tropical weather discussion 1215 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service warning text for Wichita, Dodge City, Amarillo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and neighboring offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 12 storm updates (Watch 667).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 13, 2026