Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate
What Changed
- SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:49 PM CDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, valid 160100Z–161200Z) holds a Marginal Risk for parts of southern Indiana into Ohio. A small storm cluster continues across southern IN near the surface trough and warm front; locally damaging wind and a brief tornado remain possible this evening before increasing low-level stability diminishes the threat. No category change from the morning desk; prior Slight Risk has closed.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas (Big Bend / Lower Trans-Pecos / Stockton Plateau into Concho Valley, along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains). High neighborhood probabilities above 70 percent for amounts exceeding 5 inches remain centered in the Moderate area. Category unchanged; strongest overnight signal persists.
- Residual Tornado Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for southwestern Indiana and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning near Fort Worth TX have expired. Flash Flood Warning for Nolan/Taylor Counties TX expired. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning for much of west-central and western Texas. No new convective watches issued. No mesoscale discussions in effect.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. Atlantic basin remains quiet with no named systems and no formation expected in the next 7 days. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and Tropical Storm Simon remain offshore Mexico with no U.S. land or Gulf threat. Tropical lane unchanged.
- Nothing else material shifted since the morning pulse. Severe residual is diminishing as expected; flood Moderate holds as the primary overnight driver.
Live Status
As of the Thursday afternoon desk, October 15, 2026 (approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM CDT / 0415Z October 16), the dominant restoration ticket remains the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over West Texas. Anomalous October moisture (PWATs near record seasonal values, +2 to +3 standard deviations) and a southward-progressing cold front continue to support heavy convective rainfall this evening into the overnight, with the strongest signal for areal averages of 3–5 inches (local higher, pockets of >5 inches) along and south of I-10 east of the Davis Mountains into the Lower Pecos River basin (Sanderson to north of Del Rio) and northward into the Concho Valley. Flood Watches remain in effect through Friday morning across west-central and western Texas.
SPC Day 1 holds a Marginal Risk over parts of southern Indiana into Ohio for the remainder of the period. The small storm cluster near the surface trough and warm front continues to support localized strong/damaging gusts and a possible brief tornado this evening. Surface-based buoyancy becomes increasingly scant with time and northeastward extent; the threat is expected to diminish as convection becomes elevated and low-level stability increases later this evening. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that were live earlier have expired. Limited residual severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front in northwest Texas has also diminished. No mesoscale discussions currently in effect. Overall intensity is waning.
Hotspots
West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton Plateau / Lower Pecos / Concho Valley including San Angelo vicinity): Primary Moderate Risk zone. Focused heavy rainfall expected this evening into tonight as the front progresses and nocturnal low-level jet enhances convergence. Flash flooding of creeks, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor-drainage areas is the main concern. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities remain high (above 70 percent) for amounts exceeding 5 inches centered within the Moderate area. Areal averages 3–5″ with locally higher possible. Flood Watches continue.
Southwest Indiana (Knox / Daviess Counties) into southern Ohio: Residual Marginal Risk. Small storm cluster near surface trough/warm front with modest buoyancy and favorable low-level shear supported brief tornado or damaging wind potential this evening. Threat is diminishing as convection elevates and stability increases. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that confirmed radar-indicated rotation and 60 mph gusts have expired. No watches.
Northwest and residual northern Texas (Fort Worth area, residual northern counties): Residual Severe Thunderstorm Warning for 60 mph wind gusts has expired. Limited organized severe potential along the outflow-augmented cold front has diminished. Preliminary LSRs include tree and roof damage near Millsap and power lines down near Weatherford in Parker County TX this evening. Flood Watches continue through Friday morning across west-central Texas with saturated soils elevating residual flash flood risk for any additional cells.
Just-Hit
Overnight and early-morning convection across the southern Plains produced damaging wind reports (gusts 60–75 mph, power lines down, sheet metal and tree damage) in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma, plus scattered tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia. Flash flooding occurred or was radar-indicated in multiple northern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma counties this morning, with 1–4+ inches fallen in warned areas. Residual river rises possible on smaller basins. Preliminary tornado report earlier near Fort Stockton TX remains under survey. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings confirmed radar-indicated threats over southwestern Indiana and residual Texas this evening; those warnings have expired. No new confirmed tornadoes reported in the latest window. Slight Risk closed overnight and reopened farther northeast before reducing to Marginal this evening.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~9:15 PM PDT / 11:15 PM CDT / 0415Z 16 Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No named systems threatening U.S. land or Gulf. Atlantic quiet; no formation expected next 7 days. Pacific: Hurricane Trudy (intensifying toward Mexico) and TS Simon offshore, no U.S. impact. Hurricane Warnings in Mexican offshore waters only. |
| Severe | Marginal | SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk southern IN into OH (localized strong/damaging gusts and possible brief tornado this evening). Prior Slight reduced. Residual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings expired. No watches valid. Threat diminishing after late evening. No current MDs. |
| Flood | Moderate | WPC Day 1 Moderate Risk West Texas (Big Bend / Stockton / Lower Pecos / Concho). Slight broader TX into southern OK. Residual FFW Nolan/Taylor expired. Flood Watches through Friday morning west-central TX and residual OK. Overnight heavy rain signal remains strong. |
| Other | Wind / Fire | High Wind Warnings AZ/NM/TX mountains and CA (gusts 50–70 mph). Red Flag Warnings Sierra and central/northern CA. Non-severe products. Separate from convective restoration. |
Restoration Read
Primary restoration ticket is water and flash flooding over West Texas under the Moderate ERO, with potential for considerable flash flooding on complex terrain, low-water crossings, arroyos, and urban poor drainage where training occurs under elevated PWATs and frontal convergence. Residual saturated ground and Flood Watches continue across Oklahoma and northern Texas from the prior Moderate axis. Overnight and residual wind damage claims remain possible from earlier 60 mph gusts in northwest Texas and residual Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The Midwest Marginal supports only isolated tree, power line, or minor structural wind claims as residual storms continue this evening near the warm front; any tornado claims would be brief and localized. No tropical surge or coastal claims. Standard posture: verify county-level Flood Warnings and Watches before deploying; Turn around, don’t drown on flooded roads. Southwest High Wind and Red Flag products are separate non-convective events and do not drive the same restoration response.
Rising queries
Trends unreachable.
What This Is Not
This is not a Quiet Pulse. WPC Moderate Risk remains live over West Texas and SPC holds a Marginal Risk over the Midwest with residual threats diminishing. Not a higher-end severe day. Not a tropical threat to the U.S. coast or Gulf. Not a named-storm hub update (no U.S.-threatening cyclone).
Looking Ahead One Day
SPC Day 2 outlook carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England for Friday afternoon and evening (scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado accompanying a squall line). WPC Day 2 continues a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of West Texas as the front progresses, with the heavy rain threat lingering into early Friday. No tropical development indicated for the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Sources: SPC Day 1 Outlook (spc.noaa.gov, 0100 UTC update), WPC Day 1 ERO discussion (wpc.ncep.noaa.gov), NWS WWA summary (weather.gov/wwamap). Morning desk: Storm Updates: West TX Flood — Oct 15 Morning.
Informational only — not an official warning. This is an afternoon desk summary of public National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center products as of approximately 9:15 PM PDT on October 15, 2026. Always confirm with the latest official forecasts and local authorities. Turn around, don’t drown.