As of the morning desk on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (updated late evening PDT / early October 30 UTC), the national picture remains a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, valid 300100Z–301200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0132 UTC October 30) shows a Slight Risk for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight
What Changed
- Compared with the afternoon desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk holds for central and northeast Kansas (~19,351 sq mi, ~592,000 people including Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson, Junction City) for isolated hail this evening, and locally in southwest Texas for a possible brief tornado early this evening. No convective watches currently valid. Prior MDs 2418/2419 have expired; no MDs in effect.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico, tied to moisture from the remnants of Vance. A Marginal Risk area is noted near the MO/KS/IA/NE border. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches remain in effect across portions of West Texas and SE New Mexico through Friday evening.
- Remnants of Vance (Eastern Pacific): NHC issued the final advisory (Advisory 35, 800 PM MST October 29). The system no longer has a well-defined center. Moisture continues to spread into the south-central and southwestern United States, but no U.S. land threat and no coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones with no formation expected in the next 7 days.
- Residual Flood Warnings continue on the St. Johns River system in Florida (near Deland and Astor) and portions of New Mexico from prior rainfall, plus localized coastal flood advisories (California, Florida Keys). Winter Storm Warnings active in Alaska. These do not alter the national ERO lane beyond the Slight in the Southwest.
- Nothing moved severe to Slight or above, flood to Moderate or above, or opened a tropical watch/warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Quiet Pulse criteria hold. Dominant residual ticket is the Slight excessive rainfall risk in West TX / SE NM from Vance moisture.
Live Status
SPC Day 1 (issued 0728 PM CDT October 29, 2026, valid through 12Z October 30) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and northeast Kansas and locally in southwest Texas. In Kansas, widely scattered thunderstorms are developing near a stalled front in a moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) with sufficient shear for cell rotation, supporting an isolated hail threat as storms move northeastward. In southwest Texas, weak instability and elevated low-level shear/helicity support a brief tornado possibility with low-topped cells early this evening. No current watches or active Mesoscale Discussions. Threat expected to diminish overnight with loss of instability.
WPC Day 1 ERO (updated 0132 UTC October 30, 2026) shows a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. High confidence in a heavy rainfall event through tonight as a mid-level disturbance associated with the remnants of Vance moves into the region. Southeasterly flow elevates PWATs to 1.5-2 inches. Hourly amounts to 2 inches possible with training or cell mergers; local totals to 5 inches near the TX/MX border. Marginal Risk near the KS/MO/NE/IA junction. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches cover much of the Slight Risk area through Friday evening.
NWS has residual Flood Warnings on some river systems from prior rainfall and localized coastal flood advisories (e.g., parts of Florida, California). High Wind Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are active in portions of Alaska. No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf. Overnight LSRs may include isolated hail in Kansas; no widespread damaging reports noted on latest scan.
Hotspots
- West and central Texas / southeastern New Mexico: Slight Risk excessive rainfall tonight into Friday morning from Vance remnant moisture. Training storms and elevated PWATs support localized flash flooding, especially urban areas, roads, low-lying spots, and burn scars. Dominant residual restoration ticket. Flood Watches in effect.
- Central and northeast Kansas: Isolated hail threat this evening with storms along the stalled front. Primary short-term severe focus. Population centers include Topeka, Salina, Manhattan, Hutchinson.
- Southwest Texas: Localized brief tornado possible early this evening with low-topped cells in a moist airmass. Short-lived.
- Residual river and coastal flooding: Ongoing Flood Warnings on the St. Johns River system in Florida and portions of New Mexico, plus minor coastal flood advisories. Not tied to the new ERO Slight.
Pulse Table
| Lane | Status | Notes (as of ~03Z Oct 30 2026 / ~8 PM PDT Oct 29) |
|---|---|---|
| Tropical | None | No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Remnants of Vance (EPAC, final advisory issued) pose no U.S. land threat; moisture spreading into SW U.S. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings. |
| Severe | Marginal | SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk (~19k sq mi, ~592k people) for central/NE Kansas (isolated hail) and locally SW Texas (brief tornado possible). No active watches or MDs. |
| Flood | Slight | WPC Day 1 Slight Risk for west/central Texas and SE New Mexico (Vance moisture). Marginal near KS/MO/NE/IA. Residual river Flood Warnings (FL St. Johns, NM) and coastal advisories continue. No Moderate or higher. Flood Watches active in TX/NM. |
Rising Queries
- flood watch
- Texas flood
- New Mexico rain
- Vance moisture
- Kansas hail
Restoration Read
Quiet Pulse. Dominant residual ticket is localized flash flooding potential in west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Vance remnant moisture tonight into Friday, plus isolated hail in central/northeast Kansas and a very limited brief tornado possibility in southwest Texas. Residual river stage concerns on Flood Warnings in Florida and New Mexico. No organized widespread damage expected. Monitor for water intrusion, debris, and high water on roads. Turn around, don’t drown.
What This Is Not
This is a Quiet Pulse. No SPC Slight or higher severe risk on the latest Day 1 outlook. No WPC Moderate or higher excessive rainfall. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning on the U.S. coast or Gulf of America. This desk summarizes public products from the SPC, WPC, NWS, and NHC.
Sources: Storm Prediction Center (Day 1 Outlook 0100Z Oct 30, issued 0728 PM CDT Oct 29), Weather Prediction Center (Day 1 ERO Slight Risk, updated 0132 UTC Oct 30), National Weather Service (watches, warnings, residual Flood Warnings, Flood Watches in TX/NM), National Hurricane Center (Atlantic quiet; Remnants of Vance EPAC final advisory). Afternoon desk: quiet-pulse-2026-10-29-afternoon.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Always check weather.gov for local forecasts and warnings. Turn around, don’t drown.
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