Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse

As of the afternoon desk on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC October 29), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows probability of exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.

Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet

What Changed

Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-28-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 evolved during the day. Midday updates (1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) introduced a Slight Risk over eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin for isolated tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds. Tornado Watch 698 was issued at 3:40 PM CDT for eastern MN and northwest WI, valid until 9 PM CDT. By the 0100 UTC October 29 outlook the risk was downgraded to Marginal for the Upper Mississippi Valley (~20,009 sq mi, population ~688,477 including Eau Claire WI); mode transitioned to mostly linear. Watch 698 has expired; no watches or Mesoscale Discussions currently valid.
Preliminary Local Storm Reports for October 28 include multiple hail reports in central and eastern Minnesota (dime to quarter-plus, including one 3.00-inch spikey near Grove City MN), isolated wind damage in Dakota County MN, and one weak tornado report (brief rotation, no damage) near Danbury, Burnett County WI around 5:40 PM CDT.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to show probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet; Tropical Depression Vance in the Eastern Pacific poses no U.S. threat.
Severe lane opened temporarily to Slight then closed back to Marginal. Flood remains Quiet. Quiet Pulse criteria hold on the latest products.

Live Status

SPC Day 1 (valid through 12Z October 29) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms from parts of southeast Minnesota into western and northern Wisconsin. A subtle shortwave and cold front support isolated thunderstorms with a localized severe threat early this evening; deep-layer shear is strong but instability limited. Threat expected to diminish overnight. No convective watches or active MDs.

WPC Day 1 ERO shows no organized excessive rainfall risk; probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Residual Flood Warnings persist on rivers in Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico from prior rainfall.

NWS has scattered Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood Advisories/Warnings, Wind Advisories, and a Winter Storm Warning in Alaska. No widespread severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings dominating the national map. Hawaii High Wind Warning on summits.

Hotspots

Upper Mississippi Valley (MN/WI): Residual Marginal severe risk. Isolated hail and gusts possible early evening along the front. Population exposure limited; threat winding down after Watch 698. Multiple hail LSRs and one weak tornado already logged.
Residual river flooding zones (FL, Southwest): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in low-lying areas and arroyos.
Alaska: Winter Storm Warning continues for heavy snow on south slopes of the Western Brooks Range and Noatak Valley through Thursday. Travel impacts possible.

Just Hit

Hail reports from central Minnesota this afternoon (Blomkest, Granite Falls, Grove City areas) with sizes up to 3 inches in spots. One weak tornado reported near Danbury WI (brief, no damage). Isolated wind damage in eastern Minnesota. Residual river flooding continues on systems in Florida and the Southwest from prior events.

Pulse Table

Tropical: None | Severe: Marginal (Upper MS Valley) | Flood: Quiet | Other: Winter Storm Warning AK; scattered local Flood Warnings.

Restoration Read

Primary residual concerns are localized river and coastal flooding in Florida and the Southwest, plus any minor hail impacts in Minnesota. No organized severe or excessive rain event for broad restoration volume today. Alaska snow may produce isolated travel and structural issues in remote areas.

What This Is Not

Not a Slight or higher severe day on the latest outlook. Not a Moderate or higher flood risk day. Not a tropical landfall or coastal watch/warning day. Organized severe window for the Upper Midwest (Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 698) has closed for the evening.

Looking Ahead One Day

Thursday: SPC Day 2 holds no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC outlooks point to increasing heavy rain potential across the Southern High Plains and Southwest as moisture and a trough approach. Florida rain risk diminishes. Quiet nationally for severe and tropical.

Rising Queries

Minnesota tornado watch, Wisconsin severe weather, Twin Cities storms, late October tornado, SPC Slight Risk Minnesota. (Tied to the daytime Upper Midwest severe window.)