As of the morning desk on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (late evening update, approximately 9:15 PM PDT / 04:15 UTC October 29), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows probability of exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet
What Changed
Compared with the previous desk pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-27-afternoon: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 evolved during the day. Morning and midday updates (1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) introduced a Slight Risk over eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin for isolated tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds. Tornado Watch 698 was issued at 3:40 PM CDT for eastern MN and northwest WI, valid until 9 PM CDT. By the 0100 UTC October 29 outlook the risk was downgraded to Marginal for the Upper Mississippi Valley; mode transitioned to mostly linear. Watch 698 has expired; no watches or Mesoscale Discussions currently valid.
Preliminary Local Storm Reports for October 28 include multiple hail reports in central and eastern Minnesota (dime to quarter-plus, including one 3.00-inch spikey near Grove City), isolated wind damage in Dakota County MN, and one weak tornado report (brief rotation, no damage) near Danbury, Burnett County WI around 5:40 PM CDT.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to show probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet; Tropical Depression Vance in the Eastern Pacific poses no U.S. threat.
Severe lane opened temporarily to Slight then closed back to Marginal. Flood remains Quiet. Quiet Pulse criteria hold on the latest products.
Live Status
SPC Day 1 (valid through 12Z October 29) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms from parts of southeast Minnesota into western and northern Wisconsin. A subtle shortwave and cold front support isolated thunderstorms with a localized severe threat early this evening; deep-layer shear is strong but instability limited. Threat expected to diminish overnight. No convective watches or active MDs.
WPC Day 1 ERO shows no organized excessive rainfall risk; probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Residual Flood Warnings persist on rivers in Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico from prior rainfall.
NWS has scattered Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood Advisories/Warnings, Wind Advisories, and a Winter Storm Warning in Alaska. No widespread severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings dominating the national map. Hawaii High Wind Warning on summits.
Hotspots
Upper Mississippi Valley (MN/WI): Residual Marginal severe risk. Isolated hail and gusts possible early evening along the front. Population exposure limited; threat winding down after Watch 698. Multiple hail LSRs and one weak tornado already logged.
Residual river flooding zones (FL, Southwest): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in low-lying areas and arroyos.
Alaska: Winter Storm Warning continues for heavy snow on south slopes of the Western Brooks Range and Noatak Valley through Thursday. Travel impacts possible.
Just Hit
Hail reports from central Minnesota this afternoon (Blomkest, Granite Falls, Grove City areas) with sizes up to 3 inches in spots. One weak tornado reported near Danbury WI (brief, no damage). Isolated wind damage in eastern Minnesota. Residual river flooding continues on systems in Florida and the Southwest from prior events.
Pulse Table
Lane
Status
Notes (as of ~04:15 UTC Oct 29 2026)
Tropical
None
No tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. TD Vance (EPAC) far offshore, no U.S. threat. No coastal or Gulf watches or warnings.
Severe
Marginal
SPC Day 1 (0100Z Oct 29) Marginal Risk Upper MS Valley. Temporary Slight and Tornado Watch 698 earlier; both closed. Isolated LSRs logged. No active watches.
Flood
Quiet
WPC Day 1 ERO <5% (no risk). Residual Flood Warnings on rivers. No Moderate or higher.
Restoration Read
Primary residual concerns are localized river and coastal flooding in Florida and the Southwest, plus any minor hail impacts in Minnesota. No organized severe or excessive rain event for broad restoration volume today. Alaska snow may produce isolated travel and structural issues in remote areas.
What This Is Not
Not a Slight or higher severe day on the latest outlook. Not a Moderate or higher flood risk day. Not a tropical landfall or coastal watch/warning day. Organized severe window for the Upper Midwest (Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 698) has closed for the evening.
Looking Ahead One Day
Thursday: SPC Day 2 holds no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC outlooks point to increasing heavy rain potential across the Southern High Plains and Southwest as moisture and a trough approach. Florida rain risk diminishes. Quiet nationally for severe and tropical.
As of the afternoon desk on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (approximately 9:14 PM PDT / 04:14 UTC October 29), the national picture is a Quiet Pulse. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC update) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows probability of exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent nationally. No tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is in effect on the U.S. coast or Gulf.
Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet
What Changed
Compared with this morning’s pulse table (quiet-pulse-2026-10-28-morning: Tropical: None · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Quiet): SPC Day 1 evolved during the day. Midday updates (1300 UTC and 1630 UTC) introduced a Slight Risk over eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin for isolated tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds. Tornado Watch 698 was issued at 3:40 PM CDT for eastern MN and northwest WI, valid until 9 PM CDT. By the 0100 UTC October 29 outlook the risk was downgraded to Marginal for the Upper Mississippi Valley (~20,009 sq mi, population ~688,477 including Eau Claire WI); mode transitioned to mostly linear. Watch 698 has expired; no watches or Mesoscale Discussions currently valid.
Preliminary Local Storm Reports for October 28 include multiple hail reports in central and eastern Minnesota (dime to quarter-plus, including one 3.00-inch spikey near Grove City MN), isolated wind damage in Dakota County MN, and one weak tornado report (brief rotation, no damage) near Danbury, Burnett County WI around 5:40 PM CDT.
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues to show probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance less than 5 percent. No risk areas.
No named tropical cyclone threatens or has just hit U.S. land. Atlantic basin quiet; Tropical Depression Vance in the Eastern Pacific poses no U.S. threat.
Severe lane opened temporarily to Slight then closed back to Marginal. Flood remains Quiet. Quiet Pulse criteria hold on the latest products.
Live Status
SPC Day 1 (valid through 12Z October 29) lists a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms from parts of southeast Minnesota into western and northern Wisconsin. A subtle shortwave and cold front support isolated thunderstorms with a localized severe threat early this evening; deep-layer shear is strong but instability limited. Threat expected to diminish overnight. No convective watches or active MDs.
WPC Day 1 ERO shows no organized excessive rainfall risk; probability of exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Residual Flood Warnings persist on rivers in Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico from prior rainfall.
NWS has scattered Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood Advisories/Warnings, Wind Advisories, and a Winter Storm Warning in Alaska. No widespread severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings dominating the national map. Hawaii High Wind Warning on summits.
Hotspots
Upper Mississippi Valley (MN/WI): Residual Marginal severe risk. Isolated hail and gusts possible early evening along the front. Population exposure limited; threat winding down after Watch 698. Multiple hail LSRs and one weak tornado already logged.
Residual river flooding zones (FL, Southwest): Ongoing Flood Warnings from prior events. Saturated soils elevate risk for rapid runoff in low-lying areas and arroyos.
Alaska: Winter Storm Warning continues for heavy snow on south slopes of the Western Brooks Range and Noatak Valley through Thursday. Travel impacts possible.
Just Hit
Hail reports from central Minnesota this afternoon (Blomkest, Granite Falls, Grove City areas) with sizes up to 3 inches in spots. One weak tornado reported near Danbury WI (brief, no damage). Isolated wind damage in eastern Minnesota. Residual river flooding continues on systems in Florida and the Southwest from prior events.
Primary residual concerns are localized river and coastal flooding in Florida and the Southwest, plus any minor hail impacts in Minnesota. No organized severe or excessive rain event for broad restoration volume today. Alaska snow may produce isolated travel and structural issues in remote areas.
What This Is Not
Not a Slight or higher severe day on the latest outlook. Not a Moderate or higher flood risk day. Not a tropical landfall or coastal watch/warning day. Organized severe window for the Upper Midwest (Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 698) has closed for the evening.
Looking Ahead One Day
Thursday: SPC Day 2 holds no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. WPC outlooks point to increasing heavy rain potential across the Southern High Plains and Southwest as moisture and a trough approach. Florida rain risk diminishes. Quiet nationally for severe and tropical.
Rising Queries
Minnesota tornado watch, Wisconsin severe weather, Twin Cities storms, late October tornado, SPC Slight Risk Minnesota. (Tied to the daytime Upper Midwest severe window.)
This is a live Tuesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Water still owns the Southwest. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Four Corners country, after overnight flash-flood warnings from southwestern Utah and Mohave County, Arizona, through the Laughlin–Kingman corridor. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook draws a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Arizona and New Mexico into west Texas. No SPC watches or mesoscale discussions were in effect as of mid-morning UTC.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Hurricane Polo is crossing the Gulf of California into Sonora and is forecast to weaken over the mountains of northern Mexico. Its mid-level remnant is the moisture and shear that keep the Southwest wet and give west Texas a localized tornado and damaging-gust window this afternoon and evening. Restoration exposure today is interior water on already-saturated soils, wash and burn-scar flooding, trees and service drops on isolated severe gusts, and a narrow tornado swath if a cell organizes over eastern New Mexico or the South Plains. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is valid. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Warnings on the northern Plains have expired. The live national products this morning are the SPC Marginal Risk from southeast Arizona through southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook with a Moderate Risk still parked on the Southwest.
A mid/upper-level low and trough are moving across the Desert Southwest. Polo’s remnant mid-level circulation is expected to phase with that trough, helping a surface low consolidate over eastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight. Widespread convection is already ongoing on that moisture axis and is expected to continue through the afternoon and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates from the tropical remnant will cap how severe the storms get, but increasing deep-layer shear and a strengthening low-level jet later today leave room for organized linear segments and a few episodic supercells.
Hotspot 1 — Four Corners / Southwest flood pulse
This is the water desk. WPC language still supports a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over parts of Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and adjacent high country, with a predecessor rainfall event still working off tropical moisture. Antecedent soils are wet. Burn scars, slot canyons, and south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans remain the first failures. Overnight Flash Flood Warnings covered Hildale and the Short Creek watershed in southwestern Utah, Colorado City and northern Mohave County, the Laughlin–Kingman–Bullhead City corridor, and pieces of San Bernardino and Clark counties. A separate overnight Flash Flood Warning hit the Fargo–Moorhead metro with up to two inches already down and additional rain possible.
Cities and counties to watch: Kingman, Bullhead City, Laughlin, Colorado City, Hildale, Flagstaff and Mogollon Rim drainages, the Lordsburg and Sacramento Mountains country in New Mexico, and saturated drainages in southern Utah. Fargo and Moorhead are yesterday-into-this-morning water, not the Moderate Risk core.
Restoration read: extraction and drying first. Treat burn-scar and wash flooding as a same-night water job if rain is still falling on the same ZIP. Photograph only if it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.
Hotspot 2 — Southeast Arizona through eastern New Mexico into west Texas
This is the SPC Marginal. Isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two are the official Day 1 language for this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, with southeast Arizona included on the same corridor. Population centers inside the risk area include El Paso, Tucson, Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, Odessa, and Roswell. Storm mode should trend complex or linear as coverage increases, with a few supercells possible when shear and the low-level jet increase later today.
NWS South Plains and Panhandle hazardous-weather outlooks this morning already flag multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms, flash-flood potential where cells train, wind gusts up to about 70 mph, and a brief tornado or two. Flood Watches are in play on parts of the southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains.
Restoration read: wind and water on the same ticket. Stage tarps and extractors for the South Plains and Permian Basin before late afternoon. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event.
Hotspot 3 — Northern Plains leftover and Dakotas flood slight
Monday evening’s Marginal Risk over the western and central Dakotas and central High Plains has expired. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from that window include a 77 mph gust near Kenel and a 71 mph gust near Pollock in Campbell County, South Dakota, plus 1.00-inch hail north of Belle Fourche. Those are just-hit wind and hail tickets, not a live watch.
WPC still carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota, with a Marginal Risk from northern South Dakota through North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. That is training showers on a southerly low-level jet, not a severe-watch corridor.
Just hit
Overnight and yesterday evening: flash flooding on the Arizona–Utah–Nevada border country and in the Fargo–Moorhead area; power lines down near New Kingman-Butler in Mohave County; severe gusts in Campbell County, South Dakota. Monday afternoon’s desk already had the Southwest water story in view. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is more Four Corners flooding plus the west Texas–eastern New Mexico Marginal window this afternoon and tonight.
Hurricane Polo is not a U.S. landfall. Tropical Storms Fay and Hanna are well out in the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Rachel is offshore of southwestern Mexico. None of those systems is a mainland U.S. hurricane threat this morning.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this morning
Four Corners / SW AZ–UT–NM
Flash flood, burn-scar and wash flooding
WPC Moderate excessive rainfall
Live flood pulse; overnight FFWs expired or rolling
SE Arizona / E New Mexico / west Texas
Damaging gusts, brief tornado possible, heavy rain
SPC Marginal
Afternoon–tonight window; no watch yet
SW Texas Panhandle / South Plains
Training rain, isolated severe
Flood Watch + local HWO
Today into tonight
Eastern Dakotas / NW Minnesota
Training heavy rain
WPC Slight / Marginal ERO
Showers; Fargo–Moorhead just-hit water
Western/central Dakotas (overnight)
Severe gusts, small hail
Expired Marginal + LSRs
Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland
No landfalling hurricane
Polo weakening over Sonora
Quiet on the mainland coast
What this means for restoration teams
The Southwest Moderate Risk is wet drywall, silt in structures near washes, and a 24–48 hour mold clock on buildings that took water overnight. West Texas and eastern New Mexico are a wind-first desk if storms organize, with water on the same ZIPs if cells train. Dakotas gusts from last evening are already a roof-and-siding ticket in the counties that verified.
For teams near the SPC Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown remains the flood rule on every wash in the Moderate Risk.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is a Mexico landfall whose remnant moisture is already inside the Southwest forecast. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a flooded wash in Mohave or Washington County, a wind swath through a west Texas or eastern New Mexico county, leftover urban water in Fargo. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
Wednesday’s SPC Day 2 outlook already draws a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains, with damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two from west-central Texas into southwest Oklahoma as the upper low and dryline organize. Thursday stays Marginal over parts of the southern Plains. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal is the last line of the week.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Guyer/Bentley); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 28–29 September; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Hurley/Wegman update and prior Campbell/Pereira discussion); National Weather Service warning text via the national watches/warnings feed; National Hurricane Center public advisory language on Hurricane Polo over the Gulf of California into Sonora.
This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Saturday, September 19, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down across the Carolinas and Upstate South Carolina, dumped 1.00–1.50-inch hail on the Utah Wasatch Front and Four Corners, and produced brief tornado or landspout reports near Fruit Heights and Uintah County, Utah. This morning the organized work is water: flash-flood warnings and just-hit rain of 3 to 7.5 inches in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, with a Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall still draped over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, plus a second Moderate pocket over southern Montana.
The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains, valid 1300Z Saturday through 1200Z Sunday. Summary language: scattered severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening, focused on Kansas. No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was #0669, now expired. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific. A subtropical Atlantic disturbance near the Azores is not a U.S. land threat.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is interior water where overnight cores trained, then late-day Kansas wind and hail if the Slight Risk verifies. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No SPC severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is up at 12:23 UTC Saturday. Friday’s Carolina wind pulse and Utah/Four Corners convection are yesterday’s tickets now sitting as LSRs. What is still live is hydrologic: overnight Flash Flood Warnings for southern Fillmore County, Minnesota; Clayton and Fayette Counties, Iowa; and Dubuque, Jackson, Jo Daviess, and Stephenson Counties on the Iowa–Illinois line. La Crosse and Quad Cities language overnight cited 1–3 inches already down in the Iowa warnings and 3–7.5 inches in the Minnesota flood statements, with a mudslide reported on Highway 76 west of Caledonia and water over the road at Beaver Creek Valley State Park.
Flood Watches remain through Sunday morning across portions of southwest and south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. A separate Flood Watch covers south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, through Sunday afternoon, including burn-scar flash-flood language. Heat Advisories continue into this evening over parts of southeast Kansas and central through southwest Missouri, with heat-index values near 100–105°F — that is a crew-safety overlay on the same Plains corridor that later gets the Slight Risk.
Hotspot 1 — Central Plains Slight Risk (Kansas axis)
This is today’s new severe desk. The 1300Z outlook, issued 7:25 a.m. CDT by Smith/Mead, places a Slight Risk over parts of the central Plains. The 15-percent hail contour covers about 34,700 square miles and 1.33 million people, with larger centers listed as Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, Salina, and Manhattan. The 15-percent wind contour is a bit larger and also takes in St. Joseph, Missouri. A categorical intensity-level-1 wind overlay (60–75 mph gusts) sits where HREF guidance, precipitable water, and steep low-level lapse rates overlap. A 5-percent wind area fans out as far as Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta — that is the isolated-gust envelope, not the Slight Risk core.
A cold front still runs west-southwest to east-northeast from the central High Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and will ease south. Seasonably moist air ahead of it over Kansas, Missouri, and northwestern Oklahoma should become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon. Storms are expected late afternoon into early evening as CIN erodes. Steep 0–3 km lapse rates (8.5–9.5°C/km) favor vigorous cores and evaporative cooling. A few short-lived supercells are possible in the Kansas vicinity given adequate speed and directional shear. Large hail rides with the stronger updrafts. The threat should diminish during the evening.
Farther west, models still build storms near and east of I-25 this afternoon, then grow a loosely organized band — including some supercells — into a linear cluster crossing eastern Colorado into western Kansas. Fifteen-percent wind probabilities were added over eastern Colorado for that mode. Low severe-wind probabilities continue into western Kansas late evening if the cluster holds together.
Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina, Manhattan, Topeka, Lawrence, and the I-70 / I-35 corridor in Kansas; St. Joseph and the western Missouri fringe; eastern Colorado Front Range and High Plains east of I-25; Amarillo and Enid sit in the broader wind-probability field but are not the Slight Risk bullseye.
Restoration read: stage tarps and glass/roof kits for late afternoon, not after the first warning. Hail on the 15-percent contour is vehicle and shingle work. Wind at 60–75 mph is trees on service drops and isolated roof peel. Do not let the Heat Advisory talk you out of hydration and early staging — that air mass is the same one feeding the storms.
WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0844 UTC Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, maintains a Moderate Risk over portions of the Midwest, particularly eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. That is the same corridor that took overnight Flash Flood Warnings. Additional 1–2 inches were still possible in the Iowa–Illinois warnings as of 4:19–5:54 a.m. CDT. Flood Watches through Sunday morning over southwest Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio keep the water story open after the current warnings expire.
Southeastern Minnesota is the just-hit core: 4–7.5 inches in Fillmore and Mower Counties with flooding on Highway 16 between Wayland and Peterson, water over County 57 / Minnesota 56, trees washed onto Highway 43 from south Rushford to Bratsberg, and I-90 between mile markers 193 and 204 in the statement footprint. Houston County statements cited 5–7 inches and a mudslide west of Caledonia. Those are extraction and roadway-closure jobs already on the books.
River flooding leftover from earlier in the week still sits on the Saint Marys and Wabash in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, with moderate flooding forecast near Decatur and Fort Wayne. That is channel water, not this morning’s flash-flood cores.
Restoration read: Minnesota–northeast Iowa–northwest Illinois is today’s water ticket. Photograph interiors in remaining daylight only if it is safe. The Moderate Risk means another training band can reload the same ZIPs this afternoon. Do not send the Kansas hail crew and the Dubuque water crew as one story.
WPC upgraded parts of southern Montana to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall. Discussion cited anomalously high moisture, a slow-moving mid-upper low, and deterministic QPF near 3.5 inches with high-end CAM scenarios of localized 7–8 inches if instability verifies. NWS Billings holds a Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for all of south-central and southeast Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming, with explicit burn-scar flash-flood language. A separate Flood Watch covers a slice of northeast Montana (Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, Wibaux).
Overnight High Plains wind already verified on the west side of this pattern: 66 mph near Burlington, Colorado; 67 mph southeast of Evansville, Wyoming; 63 mph northwest of Ruleton, Kansas; 69 mph north-northwest of McDonald, Kansas; 64 mph north of Hastings, Nebraska; trees and snapped poles in Cheyenne County, Kansas. Those are Friday night LSRs, not a live watch.
Restoration read: Montana is a flood-and-burn-scar desk, not a wind desk. High Plains wind damage from last night is already on the ground in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Today’s new wind threat there is the late-day cluster coming off the Front Range.
Just hit
Friday’s Carolinas–Georgia Marginal Risk verified as a wind pulse. Official LSRs include a 69 mph gust at Greensboro (GSO) and 66 mph at Fayetteville (KFAY), plus a long string of trees and wires down from Davie, Guilford, Randolph, Iredell, Rowan, Chatham, Moore, Johnston, Wake, Cumberland, Harnett, Catawba, and Pender Counties in North Carolina into York, Spartanburg, Greenville, Pickens, and Anderson Counties in South Carolina. Shingles and siding damage was reported west-southwest of Statesville. A landspout lofted debris at Lighthouse Point, Broward County, Florida, mid-afternoon Friday. That is a local Florida ticket, not the national headline.
Utah and the Four Corners took the hail and brief-tornado reports: 1.50-inch hail at Kaysville and west of Farmington, Davis County; 1.00-inch hail at Farmington, New Mexico, and Dinosaur / Massadona, Moffat County, Colorado; a tornado report near Fruit Heights, Davis County, from video showing rotation and lofted debris; a landspout report 15 miles east-southeast of Naples, Uintah County. Those cells are down. The work is already there.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this morning
Central / eastern Kansas
Severe wind 60–75 mph, large hail, short-lived supercells
SPC Slight (1300Z)
Outlook only — no watch yet
Eastern CO into western KS
Damaging gusts as storms go linear
15% wind / isolated severe
Late afternoon–evening
E Iowa / N Illinois / N Indiana
Flash flood, training rain
WPC Moderate ERO
Live overnight FFWs; risk continues
SE Minnesota (Fillmore, Houston, Mower)
Just-hit 4–7.5″ rain, roads, mudslide
FFW / flood warning overnight
Aftermath + residual water
SW MI / N IN / NW OH
Additional flooding possible
Flood Watch through Sunday morning
Watch live
Southern / SE Montana + Sheridan WY
Heavy rain, burn-scar flash flood
WPC Moderate + Flood Watch
Today into Sunday
Carolinas / Upstate SC
Trees, wires, 66–69 mph gusts
Friday Marginal — verified
Just hit / cleanup
Wasatch Front / Four Corners
1.00–1.50″ hail, brief tornado/landspout reports
Friday convection
Just hit
Ohio Valley / southern Appalachians / Southeast
Isolated 50–60 mph gusts
SPC 5% wind / local SVR possible
Afternoon scatter
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland
No named cyclone threatening land
NHC: no TCs
Quiet on the mainland coast
What this means for restoration teams
Water is the morning job. Minnesota and the Iowa–Illinois line already have interior and roadway flooding from overnight cores. A Moderate ERO means those same counties can take another round. Kansas is the afternoon job: hail and 60–75 mph wind if the Slight Risk fires on schedule. Montana is a separate flood-and-burn-scar desk with a multi-day watch. Carolina wind and Utah hail are Friday night tickets still waiting on adjusters.
For teams on the Kansas Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Heat-index values near 100–105°F on the Missouri–southeast Kansas Advisory are a crew-safety constraint, not a reason to ignore the outlook.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. No convective watch is up as of mid-morning UTC Saturday. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail and wind swath through a Kansas county, another flooded intersection where Iowa or northern Illinois cells train, burn-scar runoff in southern Montana, leftover trees in the Carolinas. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 remains a Slight Risk. WPC Day 2 eases the Midwest and Ohio Valley to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall as the axis slides east. Flood Watches in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Montana run through Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the overnight Minnesota warnings were the last water of the weekend.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead, 0725 AM CDT); SPC Current Watches page updated 12:23 UTC Saturday (no watches valid; last watch #0669); SPC Local Storm Reports for 18/1200Z–19/1159Z; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0844 UTC Saturday; National Weather Service warning text from La Crosse, Quad Cities, Northern Indiana, Billings, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Saturday (no tropical cyclones; Azores disturbance is not a U.S. land threat).
This is a live Friday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Friday, September 18, 2026. Overnight convection dumped tennis-ball hail on Bingham County, Idaho, knocked power lines down near Lewisville, and forced National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls and Rexburg areas that expired before dawn. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, across Iowa, over parts of the central High Plains, and again in the Intermountain West. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is leftover hail and interior water in eastern Idaho, isolated damaging gusts on the Carolina Piedmont and in Iowa this afternoon, and training rain from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin tonight. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0719 AM CDT. Valid 181300Z–191200Z. Headline: an isolated severe risk later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. Categorical risk is Marginal over about 171,000 square miles and roughly 21 million people. Wind is the shared 5 percent contour. A 2 percent tornado contour sits over north-central Iowa (Ames, Ankeny, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown). A 5 percent hail contour remains over the Salt Lake City–Provo corridor.
No Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch is in effect. The most recently issued watch on the SPC board is Watch 669, already expired. Today’s 1200 UTC–onward local storm report page is empty as of this desk: no tornado, hail, or wind reports on the new cycle yet. Last night’s work is on the September 17 cycle.
WPC’s 1034 UTC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday, holds a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over the Upper Mississippi Valley (southern Minnesota into Wisconsin and adjacent Iowa/Illinois) and a separate Slight over southwest Montana. Marginal flood pockets cover leftover Southwest terrain, the northern High Plains, South Florida and the Keys, a Midwest/Great Lakes corridor, and the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance still supports 2 to 4 inches in the better Upper Midwest swath.
The National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Atlantic outlook and companion eastern and central Pacific outlooks list no tropical cyclones. That sentence stays off the restoration board unless NHC names something that threatens U.S. land.
Overnight into this morning
Thursday’s SPC report cycle (1200 UTC September 17 through 1159 UTC September 18) is the just-hit file. One brief tornado was reported 11 miles north-northeast of Chappell in Garden County, Nebraska, around 0034 UTC. Hail clustered on eastern Idaho: 1.00 to 1.75 inches around Blackfoot, Shelley, Firth, Moreland, and Menan; 2.50 inches (tennis ball) one mile north-northeast of Rose in Bingham County; 1.25 inches at Gannett in Blaine County; 1.00 inch east of Alton in Bear Lake County. Utah added 1.50 inches at Midway in Wasatch County. Nebraska High Plains added 1.50 inches east-southeast of Broadwater. Missouri picked up 1.00 inch near Saint Paul in St. Charles County.
Wind: power lines down in Lewisville, Jefferson County, Idaho; 61 mph at the INL rover south-southwest of Mud Lake; trees and shingles near Saint Paul, Missouri; a 59 mph gust at Truth or Consequences, New Mexico; trees down in Tippecanoe and Carroll counties, Indiana; a large tree on Yalta Drive in Beavercreek, Ohio; several large trees in Ashland, Kentucky, with one person injured and transported when a tree fell. Overnight flash-flood warnings for the Idaho Falls area (until 2:00 AM MDT) and the Rexburg area (until 2:45 AM MDT) have expired. Those were water jobs on eastern Idaho drainages after the same hail cores, not a new watch this morning.
Hotspot 1 — Carolinas into northern Georgia
A cluster of weak thunderstorms this morning over Kentucky and West Virginia rides south on northerly flow around a mid-level high over the Ark-La-Tex. SPC expects rejuvenation near convective outflow along the Virginia–North Carolina border, then scattered storms over the Piedmont into northern Georgia as the boundary layer heats. Isolated 50–60 mph gusts are the advertised threat. Cities inside the Marginal contour include Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Atlanta.
Restoration read: wind first, not a tornado outbreak. Stage tarps and tree crews for late afternoon into evening. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe. This is a scatter of cores, not a watch-boxed line.
Hotspot 2 — Iowa and the Upper Mississippi Valley
A front lies from the lower Ohio Valley west into the mid Missouri Valley, with a weak surface low over western Nebraska. Lower-70s dewpoints sit south of the boundary. SPC favors thunderstorms over Iowa into far southern Minnesota where heating and low-level forcing erode inhibition. Primary hazard is marginally severe gusts. Enlarged hodographs near the warm front leave a localized chance of a couple of weak, short-lived supercells — that is the 2 percent tornado contour, not a Slight Risk upgrade. Upscale growth late evening would drift toward the southwest Great Lakes and lose buoyancy.
WPC’s Slight Risk is the organized water ticket. A disturbance tracking out of the Dakotas across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin can support 2–4 inches where the low-level jet blossoms the rain shield. That is wet drywall and a 24–48 hour mold clock in the better swaths, not a river-flood headline yet.
Restoration read: Iowa wind this afternoon, Minnesota–Wisconsin water tonight. Do not staff both with the same crew without checking which county has a warning now.
Hotspot 3 — Intermountain West and central High Plains
A mid-level trough crosses the Intermountain West. Dewpoints in the 50s from northern Utah into western Wyoming valleys, MLCAPE 1000–1200 J/kg, and moderate shear support isolated severe gusts and hail again late afternoon and evening — the same corridor that just put tennis-ball hail on Bingham County. On the High Plains, a vorticity maximum over New Mexico may help isolated storms grow into a small eastward cluster over eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, with isolated severe gusts on outflow.
Southwest Montana sits under WPC’s second Slight Risk after Thursday’s cell behavior and ensemble 2-inch QPF. Rates can still beat flash-flood guidance even if storms stay progressive. Residual Marginal flood language covers New Mexico and Arizona terrain for one more diurnal cycle.
Just hit
Eastern Idaho hail, the expired Idaho Falls and Rexburg flash-flood warnings, the Garden County brief tornado, and the Ashland, Kentucky tree injury are yesterday’s tickets. Thursday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already carried the Idaho–Utah Marginal and Dakotas flood Slight on the prior Day 1 package. This morning desk moves the live outlook east onto the Carolinas and Iowa and slides the flood Slight onto the Upper Mississippi Valley and southwest Montana.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this morning
Carolinas / northern GA
Isolated 50–60 mph gusts
SPC Marginal
Afternoon–evening cells
Iowa / southern MN
Gusts; localized brief tornado
SPC Marginal; 2% tornado
Afternoon into evening
Southern MN / WI / adjacent IA–IL
Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths
WPC Slight
Today’s organized water ticket
Northern UT / ID / WY valleys
Isolated hail and severe gusts
SPC Marginal (5% hail UT)
Late afternoon–evening
E CO / SW NE / NW KS
Isolated severe gusts
SPC Marginal
Evening cluster possible
Southwest Montana
Flash flood on progressive cells
WPC Slight
Afternoon–evening
Bingham / Jefferson / Madison ID
Hail, wires, expired FFWs
Aftermath
Just-hit desk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland
No landfalling cyclone
NHC quiet
Quiet
What this means for restoration teams
Idaho hail is already on cars, windows, and roofs in Bingham County. That is same-day emergency board-up and a multi-day supplement fight, not a forecast. Carolina and Iowa wind at 50–60 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work if cores verify. Upper Mississippi Valley rain is extraction and drying if 2–4 inch swaths land on saturated ground. A 2 percent tornado contour is a narrow, short-lived threat — staff it as a local damage survey if a warning verifies, not as a regional event.
For teams near Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Des Moines, Ames, or the Salt Lake valley: stage before peak heating, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.
What this is not
This is not a Slight Risk convective day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a wind-damaged street on the Piedmont, a brief spin-up near an Iowa warm front, another hail core in a Utah or Idaho valley, a flooded underpass in southern Minnesota or Wisconsin. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
Saturday’s Day 2 outlook is already a Slight Risk of scattered severe wind and hail over portions of the central Plains, with isolated severe storms possible from the High Plains and central Rockies into the Midwest and Southeast. Sunday is Marginal. Day 4–8 has no 15 percent areas. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker for the 1630 UTC Day 1 update rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal is the last line of the weekend.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 18, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Smith/Mead); SPC current watches page (none valid; last watch 669); SPC local storm reports for 20260917 and 20260918; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 1034 UTC Friday; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook; National Weather Service Pocatello flash-flood warning text for Idaho Falls and Rexburg, now expired.
This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Saturday, September 12, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse that ran eastern South Dakota into Minnesota has expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666 is down. No convective watches are valid as of mid-morning UTC. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook has upgraded the afternoon and evening corridor to a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is large hail and damaging wind on the Plains, plus interior water where Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What expired overnight vs what is live this morning
Watch 666 covered southwestern into north-central Minnesota and eastern South Dakota from 6:40 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday. Primary language was scattered large hail, isolated very large hail to two inches, damaging gusts to 70 mph, and a tornado or two if a supercell held together early in the watch. That watch is expired. SPC current watches page as of 12:03 UTC Saturday: no watches valid. Last issued watch remains 666.
What is live this morning is the outlook, not a watch. The 0748 AM CDT Saturday Day 1 convective outlook is valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday. Headline: there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains. Summary language: isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe or damaging winds may occur across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and evening. A separate Marginal Risk corridor remains over the upper Ohio Valley for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon.
WPC’s current Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook, issued 339 AM EDT Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Precipitable water of 2.0 to 2.25 inches is forecast to stream north along the I-95 corridor from Richmond and Washington toward Baltimore and Philadelphia by Saturday evening, then into the New York metro and lower Long Island late Saturday night. That late-night northern end of the slight risk is expected to linger into Sunday (Day 2).
Hotspot 1 — Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into the Ozarks
This is today’s severe ticket. Elevated storms persisted overnight into early morning across southern Nebraska into eastern Kansas and western Missouri on a modest low-level jet. SPC expects that activity to weaken through the remainder of the morning, with some guidance still showing additional development along outflow across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A fairly strong cold front is draped from eastern Colorado into Kansas and northwest Missouri. That boundary is the afternoon focus.
Along and south of the front, a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000–3500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon from the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear of about 30–40 kt is enough for organized updrafts. Isolated robust development along the front is favored around 21–23Z once convective temperatures are reached. Sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large hail, including isolated two-inch-plus stones. Higher-based convection from the eastern Panhandles into southwest and south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma favors scattered severe downdrafts. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. Clustering later this afternoon and evening remains uncertain, but isolated damaging wind may persist into much of Oklahoma and the Ozarks if upstream storms in Kansas and western Missouri stay organized.
Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Emporia, Liberal, and Derby in the Slight Risk core; Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Kansas City sit in the surrounding Marginal Risk. Restoration read: hail first in the Slight Risk, then wind. Stage tarps and roof kits before mid-afternoon local. If a cell trains on the same ZIP, treat it as a water job by morning.
Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor
This is today’s flood ticket, not the hail ticket. SPC keeps only a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind across parts of the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon in a narrow corridor of filtered heating between denser clouds over Ohio and a stationary boundary to the east. Mid-level lapse rates stay poor. The bigger operational signal is WPC. HREF signals include moderate-to-high chances of three- and six-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and a 20–40 percent chance of three-hour QPF over two inches from the Richmond area late Saturday afternoon, then from northeast Maryland into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York metro and lower Long Island, with that northern end weighted late Saturday night into Sunday.
Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, the upper Ohio Valley; Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, northern New Jersey, New York City, and lower Long Island on the late-day and overnight rain axis. Restoration read: urban street flooding, low crossings, and wet drywall where cells train. The 24–48 hour mold clock starts when water is inside, not when the outlook expires.
Hotspot 3 — Just-hit Upper Midwest and leftover Arizona water
Friday evening’s Slight Risk over far eastern South Dakota into Minnesota verified locally. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday to 1159 UTC Saturday window include a tornado touchdown reported seven miles northeast of Artichoke in Stevens County, Minnesota, around 0051 UTC, plus downed power poles eight miles south of Alberta on County Highway 9. Golf-ball hail (1.75 inches) was reported east and south of Artichoke and south of Alberta. Half-dollar hail fell near Dumont, Herman, Norcross, and Toronto, South Dakota. Wind damage and trees on lines were reported around Chokio, Embarrass and Britt in St. Louis County, Whipholt and Longville in Cass County, and Blue Grass in Wadena County, with one report noting possible tornado damage and large trees blocking County Road 23.
Separate Friday hail and wind clusters hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington and Mansfield, golf-ball hail and trees and poles down), Bexar County, Texas after 0310 UTC (golf-ball hail near Converse), and a long tree-down corridor through South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Arizona flash-flood warnings fired Friday evening over Gila, Coconino, Navajo, Cochise, and Graham Counties, including fire-scar drainages. Those Arizona warnings were evening products; treat them as just-hit water, not today’s new Slight Risk.
Just hit
Minnesota and eastern South Dakota are yesterday’s tickets: hail, trees, poles, and at least one reported tornado touchdown that still needs a damage survey, not a new watch. North Texas and San Antonio-area hail are Friday afternoon and overnight work already on the books. The Carolinas and southern Virginia tree-down scatter is the same. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Kansas–Oklahoma hail and wind corridor plus localized flash flooding from the Ohio Valley onto the Mid-Atlantic I-95 axis tonight.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this morning
Southern KS / northern OK / Panhandles / Ozarks
Large to very large hail, damaging wind, isolated 75+ mph gusts
SPC Slight (core) + Marginal surround
Outlook live; no watch yet
Upper Ohio Valley
Isolated damaging wind; heavy rain / flash flood
SPC Marginal + WPC Slight ERO
Afternoon increase
Mid-Atlantic I-95 (RIC–DC–BAL–PHL–NYC)
Training heavy rain, urban flash flood
WPC Slight ERO
Late afternoon through Saturday night
Eastern SD / west-central and northern MN
Hail, trees, poles, reported tornado
Watch 666 expired 10 p.m. CDT Fri
Aftermath / just-hit
North Texas / San Antonio metro
Friday hail and wind
Local LSRs
Aftermath
Southeast AZ fire scars / washes
Flash flood from Friday cells
Expired FFWs
Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland
No landfalling tropical cyclone
NHC: formation not expected next 7 days in Atlantic
Quiet on the mainland coast
What this means for restoration teams
Two-inch hail is roof and auto glass work in the Slight Risk counties. Gusts of 60–75 mph are siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A reported tornado near Artichoke, Minnesota, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic heavy rain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Wichita hail and Pittsburgh flooding without checking which county actually has a warning now.
For teams in or near the Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center Atlantic outlook at 800 AM EDT Saturday: tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Norbert is well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is not a U.S. land threat. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a wind-thrown tree in the upper Ohio Valley, a flooded underpass where Mid-Atlantic cells train. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk Sunday afternoon and evening from western New England through the upper Ohio Valley for small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. Day 3 is also Marginal. Fire-weather outlooks are Elevated today and Sunday. The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Slight Risk is the last line of the weekend.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 12, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0748 AM CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; most recently issued Watch 666); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260911 1200 UTC–20260912 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 339 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Weather Service watch/warning text feed.
This is a live Friday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Friday, September 11, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse was limited and mostly High Plains–oriented. No convective watches are currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center has elevated a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the Upper Midwest later today, with a broader Marginal Risk covering the central Plains into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota, with localized flash-flood potential still lingering from overnight activity in the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.
These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is active in the Eastern Pacific well offshore and poses no threat to U.S. land. Restoration exposure today centers on residual wind and hail damage from the Texas Panhandle overnight, lingering water in West Virginia and Ohio counties, and the new Slight Risk corridor from far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are in effect as of the 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook. The most recent watch was Watch 665 from Wednesday evening. Overnight Local Storm Reports show a concentrated hail and wind event across the Texas Panhandle and nearby High Plains counties, with measured gusts to 87 mph near Colby, Kansas, and hail up to 2.25 inches near Lake Tanglewood in Randall County, Texas. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings were issued overnight for portions of eastern Arkansas, north-central West Virginia, southeastern Ohio, and the Virginia Eastern Shore; most of those products have expired or are in their final hours this morning.
SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook highlights a Slight Risk across parts of the Upper Midwest—primarily far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota—for large hail (isolated 2+ inches possible), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. A broader Marginal Risk extends south into the central Plains and eastward across the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia for more disorganized pulse-type storms capable of occasional damaging gusts.
This is the primary organized severe corridor for today. A mid-level shortwave trough ejecting across the northern Plains will support a surface low and cold front. Moderate destabilization and 35–45 kt deep-layer shear favor initial supercells capable of large hail, with a transition to clusters and bowing segments producing damaging winds this evening. A low-end tornado threat exists if any cells remain discrete into the early evening when low-level shear increases. Confidence is higher in the far northeast SD–western MN axis than farther south into the central Plains, where initiation remains more conditional.
Cities and counties to watch: Aberdeen and Watertown areas in South Dakota; St. Cloud, Willmar, Duluth, Superior, Hibbing, and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Restoration read: stage for hail and wind. Large hail can produce concentrated roof and vehicle damage; clustering storms raise the tree-and-wire risk after dark. Photograph in remaining daylight only if safe.
Hotspot 2 — Texas Panhandle and High Plains overnight hits
Thursday evening into early Friday produced the most significant Local Storm Reports of the overnight window. Hail reports included 2.25-inch stones near Lake Tanglewood (Randall County, TX), 2.00-inch at Timbercreek Canyon, and multiple 1.00–1.75-inch reports around Pantex and Lake Tanglewood. Wind reports included an 87 mph gust 1 SE of Colby (Thomas County, KS), 67 mph near Pantex, 65 mph near Plainview (Hale County, TX) with snapped power poles and overturned vehicles, and additional 60–62 mph gusts across the Texas South Plains. Construction trailers and fences were damaged in the Plainview area.
Restoration read: this is already a just-hit desk. Hail-damaged roofs and vehicles in Randall, Carson, and Hale counties, plus wind-driven tree and pole work around Colby and Plainview, will generate same-day claims. Coordinate with local emergency management for access if power poles are down.
Hotspot 3 — Residual flood pulse (Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, eastern Arkansas)
WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Slight Risk for far southern Arizona (Santa Cruz County area) and northern Minnesota. Overnight, Flash Flood Warnings were active across Randolph County, Arkansas; multiple north-central West Virginia counties (Braxton, Gilmer, Upshur, Lewis, Roane, Calhoun, Ritchie, Wirt, Jackson, Wood); southeastern Ohio (Gallia, Jackson, Meigs, Vinton); and southern Accomack County, Virginia. Several of those products noted observed flooding, including impassable sections of US 33 near Glenville, West Virginia, and residual high water into Friday morning.
Restoration read: water extraction and drying are already on the books in the warned West Virginia and Ohio counties. Northern Minnesota joins the slight-risk language later today as the same system that supports the severe threat also produces 1–2 inch (locally 3 inch) rainfall amounts with rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour. Southern Arizona remains a monsoon-style flash-flood pocket.
Just hit
Wednesday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced residual tree and wind damage that carried into Thursday. Thursday’s Marginal Risk corridor from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic generated the Texas Panhandle hail/wind event detailed above and scattered overnight flood warnings. Iowa river flooding from earlier in the week continues to recede in places. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone is present; Tropical Storm Norbert remains well out in the Eastern Pacific.
Pulse table
Region
Main threats
SPC / NWS / WPC level
Status this morning
NE SD / western & northern MN
Large hail (2+” possible), damaging wind, couple tornadoes
SPC Slight
Late afternoon–tonight
TX Panhandle / High Plains
Hail to 2.25″, 60–87 mph gusts, pole/vehicle damage
Overnight LSRs
Just-hit / recovery
Central WV / SE OH / E AR
Flash flooding, residual high water
Expired/expiring FFWs + Flood Warnings
Aftermath / still draining
Far southern AZ
Flash flood rates
WPC Slight
Afternoon cells
Mid-South / TN Valley / Carolinas / VA
Occasional damaging gusts, pulse storms
SPC Marginal
Afternoon–evening
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland
No landfalling tropical cyclone
Quiet on the mainland coast
Quiet
What this means for restoration teams
Overnight hail and wind in the Texas Panhandle is already producing roof, vehicle, and pole claims. Residual flash flooding in West Virginia and southeastern Ohio is extraction-and-dry work with a 24–48 hour mold clock on any wet drywall. Today’s new Slight Risk in the Upper Midwest is a classic late-afternoon to evening supercell-to-cluster transition: large hail first, then damaging wind as storms grow upscale. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for the Minnesota corridor before the evening transition. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Minnesota or South Dakota county, residual high water in a West Virginia hollow, or a wind-damaged construction site in the Texas South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
Saturday the convective outlook drops to Marginal. Critical fire-weather conditions are also noted by SPC for today over parts of the West. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Upper Midwest Slight Risk is the last line of the week.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1226Z Friday, September 11, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 10 September period; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832Z; National Weather Service warning text for Amarillo, Lubbock, Charleston WV, Little Rock, Wakefield, and neighboring offices. No active convective watches as of 1205Z.
