This is a live Friday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Friday, September 11, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse was limited and mostly High Plains–oriented. No convective watches are currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center has elevated a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the Upper Midwest later today, with a broader Marginal Risk covering the central Plains into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota, with localized flash-flood potential still lingering from overnight activity in the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.
These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is active in the Eastern Pacific well offshore and poses no threat to U.S. land. Restoration exposure today centers on residual wind and hail damage from the Texas Panhandle overnight, lingering water in West Virginia and Ohio counties, and the new Slight Risk corridor from far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.
What is live this morning
No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are in effect as of the 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook. The most recent watch was Watch 665 from Wednesday evening. Overnight Local Storm Reports show a concentrated hail and wind event across the Texas Panhandle and nearby High Plains counties, with measured gusts to 87 mph near Colby, Kansas, and hail up to 2.25 inches near Lake Tanglewood in Randall County, Texas. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings were issued overnight for portions of eastern Arkansas, north-central West Virginia, southeastern Ohio, and the Virginia Eastern Shore; most of those products have expired or are in their final hours this morning.
SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook highlights a Slight Risk across parts of the Upper Midwest—primarily far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota—for large hail (isolated 2+ inches possible), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. A broader Marginal Risk extends south into the central Plains and eastward across the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia for more disorganized pulse-type storms capable of occasional damaging gusts.
Hotspot 1 — Upper Midwest Slight Risk (northeast SD into western/northern MN)
This is the primary organized severe corridor for today. A mid-level shortwave trough ejecting across the northern Plains will support a surface low and cold front. Moderate destabilization and 35–45 kt deep-layer shear favor initial supercells capable of large hail, with a transition to clusters and bowing segments producing damaging winds this evening. A low-end tornado threat exists if any cells remain discrete into the early evening when low-level shear increases. Confidence is higher in the far northeast SD–western MN axis than farther south into the central Plains, where initiation remains more conditional.
Cities and counties to watch: Aberdeen and Watertown areas in South Dakota; St. Cloud, Willmar, Duluth, Superior, Hibbing, and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Restoration read: stage for hail and wind. Large hail can produce concentrated roof and vehicle damage; clustering storms raise the tree-and-wire risk after dark. Photograph in remaining daylight only if safe.
Hotspot 2 — Texas Panhandle and High Plains overnight hits
Thursday evening into early Friday produced the most significant Local Storm Reports of the overnight window. Hail reports included 2.25-inch stones near Lake Tanglewood (Randall County, TX), 2.00-inch at Timbercreek Canyon, and multiple 1.00–1.75-inch reports around Pantex and Lake Tanglewood. Wind reports included an 87 mph gust 1 SE of Colby (Thomas County, KS), 67 mph near Pantex, 65 mph near Plainview (Hale County, TX) with snapped power poles and overturned vehicles, and additional 60–62 mph gusts across the Texas South Plains. Construction trailers and fences were damaged in the Plainview area.
Restoration read: this is already a just-hit desk. Hail-damaged roofs and vehicles in Randall, Carson, and Hale counties, plus wind-driven tree and pole work around Colby and Plainview, will generate same-day claims. Coordinate with local emergency management for access if power poles are down.
Hotspot 3 — Residual flood pulse (Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, eastern Arkansas)
WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Slight Risk for far southern Arizona (Santa Cruz County area) and northern Minnesota. Overnight, Flash Flood Warnings were active across Randolph County, Arkansas; multiple north-central West Virginia counties (Braxton, Gilmer, Upshur, Lewis, Roane, Calhoun, Ritchie, Wirt, Jackson, Wood); southeastern Ohio (Gallia, Jackson, Meigs, Vinton); and southern Accomack County, Virginia. Several of those products noted observed flooding, including impassable sections of US 33 near Glenville, West Virginia, and residual high water into Friday morning.
Restoration read: water extraction and drying are already on the books in the warned West Virginia and Ohio counties. Northern Minnesota joins the slight-risk language later today as the same system that supports the severe threat also produces 1–2 inch (locally 3 inch) rainfall amounts with rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour. Southern Arizona remains a monsoon-style flash-flood pocket.
Just hit
Wednesday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced residual tree and wind damage that carried into Thursday. Thursday’s Marginal Risk corridor from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic generated the Texas Panhandle hail/wind event detailed above and scattered overnight flood warnings. Iowa river flooding from earlier in the week continues to recede in places. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone is present; Tropical Storm Norbert remains well out in the Eastern Pacific.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE SD / western & northern MN | Large hail (2+” possible), damaging wind, couple tornadoes | SPC Slight | Late afternoon–tonight |
| TX Panhandle / High Plains | Hail to 2.25″, 60–87 mph gusts, pole/vehicle damage | Overnight LSRs | Just-hit / recovery |
| Central WV / SE OH / E AR | Flash flooding, residual high water | Expired/expiring FFWs + Flood Warnings | Aftermath / still draining |
| Far southern AZ | Flash flood rates | WPC Slight | Afternoon cells |
| Mid-South / TN Valley / Carolinas / VA | Occasional damaging gusts, pulse storms | SPC Marginal | Afternoon–evening |
| Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland | No landfalling tropical cyclone | Quiet on the mainland coast | Quiet |
What this means for restoration teams
Overnight hail and wind in the Texas Panhandle is already producing roof, vehicle, and pole claims. Residual flash flooding in West Virginia and southeastern Ohio is extraction-and-dry work with a 24–48 hour mold clock on any wet drywall. Today’s new Slight Risk in the Upper Midwest is a classic late-afternoon to evening supercell-to-cluster transition: large hail first, then damaging wind as storms grow upscale. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for the Minnesota corridor before the evening transition. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.
What this is not
This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Minnesota or South Dakota county, residual high water in a West Virginia hollow, or a wind-damaged construction site in the Texas South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.
Looking ahead
Saturday the convective outlook drops to Marginal. Critical fire-weather conditions are also noted by SPC for today over parts of the West. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Upper Midwest Slight Risk is the last line of the week.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1226Z Friday, September 11, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 10 September period; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832Z; National Weather Service warning text for Amarillo, Lubbock, Charleston WV, Little Rock, Wakefield, and neighboring offices. No active convective watches as of 1205Z.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.
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