Tag: Ohio

Storm Updates: Oklahoma and High Plains Slight Risk, Midwest Flood Leftovers — Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Morning)

This is the Sunday morning Storm Tracker for September 20, 2026. Overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watches 670, 671, and 672 have all expired. The Storm Prediction Center’s 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail remain possible in a broader Marginal Risk from the southern Plains across the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

The flood story is leftover water, not a new Moderate Risk. Weather Prediction Center’s current Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook is a Slight Risk over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, plus a separate Slight over the northern High Plains focused on southwest South Dakota. Flash Flood Warnings fired overnight into this morning from eastern Iowa and the Quad Cities through southeast Ohio and the Charleston–Huntington corridor in West Virginia.

These are county-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood polygons. There is no U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm Fay is well southwest of the Azores. Tropical Storm Odalys is well southwest of Baja California. Verify the county warning at weather.gov before you roll.

What expired overnight vs what is live

Watch 670, issued Saturday afternoon over Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, expired at 0400 UTC Sunday (11:00 p.m. CDT Saturday). Watch 671 expired at the same hour. Watch 672, issued after 8:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, expired at 0600 UTC Sunday (1:00 a.m. CDT). No convective watch is in effect as of this morning desk.

NWS warning text from Saturday evening still shows the pulse that those watches covered: a 61 mph gust at Childress, Texas; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over Childress and Collingsworth Counties in the Texas Panhandle; western Oklahoma counties including Harmon, Greer, and Beckham; west-central Kansas around Wichita, Wallace, Logan, and Greeley Counties with radar-indicated golf-ball hail; and a line that warned St. Joseph, Atchison, and neighboring Kansas–Missouri counties. Those products have expired. They are last night’s just-hit list, not today’s watch board.

SPC’s storm-report table for the new convective day (1200 UTC Sunday onward) showed no tornado, hail, or wind LSRs at the time of this desk. That is consistent with a quiet pre-dawn after the watches died. Afternoon initiation is the next check.

Hotspot 1 — Oklahoma Slight Risk, afternoon and evening

SPC: thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma. A frontal zone that convection modulated overnight over the eastern Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will sag south. Mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints and heating support moderate buoyancy by mid-afternoon. Deep-layer shear is enough for organization.

The 1300 UTC outlook added an intensity Level-1 wind corridor over parts of southern Oklahoma where HREF/REFS guidance clustered 60–80 mph gusts on very steep 0–3 km lapse rates. Cities in or next to the Slight: Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Norman, Lawton, Wichita Falls. Storms are expected to develop from the Low Rolling Plains and Red River Valley and move northeast into central and eastern Oklahoma. Mixed mode early, with a chance the wind threat maximizes if a line segment organizes toward evening.

Restoration read: wind and hail first. Stage tarps, glass, and tree crews for late afternoon, not after dark. Southern Oklahoma is the gust corridor if the Level-1 language verifies. Photograph roofs in remaining daylight only if it is safe.

Hotspot 2 — Eastern Colorado into far western Kansas

A mid-level shortwave moves into the central High Plains today. Easterly low-level flow north of the front holds 50s dewpoints. Heating should remove inhibition by mid-to-late afternoon. Forecast soundings show straight hodographs and sizable CAPE in the hail-growth layer. A few supercells are the favored mode. Primary hazard is large hail, 1 to 2.5 inches, plus isolated severe gusts. Some lingering severe risk may drift into southeast Colorado late this evening and the Oklahoma Panhandle overnight.

Lamar sits inside the tighter probabilistic contour. Watch the I-70 and High Plains county warning areas from late afternoon. Restoration read: hail and isolated wind. Vehicle and roof claims, not a flood headline, unless a cell trains on a burn scar or a small basin.

Hotspot 3 — Midwest and Ohio Valley flood leftovers

Yesterday’s WPC Moderate Risk over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana has been stepped down. The current Day 1 ERO, updated 0819 UTC Sunday and valid 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday, is a Slight Risk from southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri east into the Ohio Valley, with a second Slight over southwest South Dakota. Overnight convection is why Flash Flood Warnings were still live into Sunday morning for the Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids and eastern Iowa, Parkersburg–Athens, Hocking–Pickaway–Ross, and the Charleston–Huntington counties.

WPC language: the threat wanes from west to east this morning into early afternoon as the back edge of the rain moves off. Farther east, overnight convection near the Ohio River toward West Virginia terrain lowered flash-flood guidance. Some guidance rebuilds moderate-to-heavy rain later. Valley moisture supports locally 2–5 inch totals where cells train.

SPC also keeps a Marginal Risk from the Ozarks east into the Ohio Valley for isolated severe gusts and hail this afternoon south of a front near the I-70 corridor. That is a secondary wind desk, not the Slight.

Restoration read: Iowa, northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, southeast Ohio, and northwest West Virginia are extraction and drying work from last night. Check which county still has a warning. Do not treat the whole corridor as a new Moderate flood day.

Just hit

Saturday night’s organized pulse was the Kansas–Oklahoma–Texas Panhandle watch complex plus the Midwest and Ohio Valley rain. Documented hits in official warning text include the Childress airport gust near 61 mph and severe-warned storms over the eastern Panhandle, western Oklahoma, west-central Kansas hail cores, and the St. Joseph–Atchison line. Flood polygons stacked from eastern Iowa through the Ohio River counties overnight. Those tickets are already on the books.

Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Oklahoma afternoon Slight and the High Plains hail corridor. The Midwest is aftermath plus a declining Slight flood overlay.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC level	Status this morning
Oklahoma / Red River	Severe wind, large hail	SPC Slight; Level-1 wind southern OK	Outlook — afternoon/evening
Eastern CO / far western KS	Large hail, isolated wind	SPC Slight	Outlook — mid/late afternoon
Ozarks to Ohio Valley	Isolated wind, hail	SPC Marginal	Outlook
SE Iowa / N Missouri / Ohio Valley	Flash flood leftover, urban water	WPC Slight ERO	Waning west to east
SW South Dakota / northern High Plains	Heavy rain	WPC Slight ERO	Today into tonight
Watches 670 / 671 / 672	Wind and hail Saturday night	Expired 0400–0600 UTC	Just-hit
Atlantic / East Pacific vs. U.S. land	Fay (Azores), Odalys (SW of Baja)	No U.S. land threat	Quiet on the mainland

What this means for restoration teams

Oklahoma this afternoon is a wind-and-hail stage. If the southern Oklahoma Level-1 gust corridor verifies, expect roofs, siding, and trees in a relatively small footprint — staff it as county work, not a regional event. The High Plains Slight is hail first. Midwest and Ohio Valley crews already have water in buildings from Saturday night. The mold clock on those interiors started last night, not this afternoon.

Do not send the same crew to Tulsa hail and Cedar Rapids extraction without checking which county actually has a warning now. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same day if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall and not a Moderate flood day on the current WPC map. Fay and Odalys are named and far from U.S. land. Last night’s watches are closed. Today’s organized severe risk is two compact Slight areas plus a wide Marginal. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

The next official Day 1 convective update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. The front continues south through Oklahoma tonight. Isolated severe risk may linger into the Oklahoma Panhandle after dark. WPC flood risk over the Midwest should keep easing from west to east unless new training rebuilds on the Ohio Valley side. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300 UTC Slight is the last line of the day.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 20, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current convective watches page (Watches 670, 671, 672 expired); SPC storm reports for 19–20 September 2026; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0819 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service watch/warning text; National Hurricane Center public advisories for Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Odalys.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday, September 19 afternoon Storm Updates. Local flood polygons posted overnight live under the same Storm Tracker category.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 20, 2026

Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Thursday, September 17, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down in western and north-central Ohio and quarter-to-half-dollar hail in eastern Utah and mid-Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail across parts of Utah and Idaho into southwest Montana, plus a second Marginal over the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus a new afternoon hail/wind corridor in the Intermountain West and a water ticket on the Dakotas, Wyoming Front Range, and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0730 AM CDT. Valid 171300Z–181200Z. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday is off the map this morning. Poor lapse rates aloft and extensive cloud cover keep severe-wind probabilities below 5 percent from the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired days ago. SPC watch page last updated 0849 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday has two Slight Risk corridors. One covers a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is no longer the live upgrade. It is the just-hit and burn-scar follow-through desk.

Hotspot 1 — Utah, Idaho, and southwest Montana

A closed mid/upper-level low over northern California this morning will drift east across the northern Intermountain region. A 40–50 kt southwesterly mid-level jet and difluence aloft overspread the northern Great Basin this afternoon. SPC’s uncertainty is instability under morning cloud and ongoing rain. Upper-40s to low-50s dewpoints are already in place. Some guidance still builds 1000–1250 J/kg of MLCAPE over southeast Idaho and northern Utah if heating punches through. If that happens, a focused corridor of greater hail and wind potential exists because deep-layer shear is strong enough for supercells. Otherwise the threat is isolated hail and gusty winds with cells and small clusters across the northern Great Basin.

Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that will own this afternoon’s cells.

Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Wasatch Front and southeast Idaho. Wind second. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity in the Salt Lake–Provo–Boise belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

Hotspot 2 — Central High Plains and the Dakotas water corridor

Between the West Coast upper low and Southeast ridging, minor mid-level perturbations lift northeast from the Southwest toward the central High Plains by evening. SPC expects additional storms from northeast Colorado into western Nebraska late afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit updraft intensity. Sufficient shear still allows a small cluster or two with isolated severe gusts spreading east-northeast through the evening. That is the wind overlay on top of WPC’s water story.

WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona will pivot through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

Today’s 17/1200Z cycle has no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet as of this morning desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are an afternoon and evening problem.

Wednesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Ohio Valley Marginal and the Arizona Moderate flood risk while they were live. This morning’s desk treats Ohio wind and Arizona washes as aftermath and moves the live outlook west and north.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
UT / ID / SW MT	Isolated hail and severe gusts; possible supercells if CAPE builds	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
NE CO / western NE / High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon clusters
WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end over SD)	Today’s organized water ticket
NM / E AZ / San Juans / Sacramentos	Flash flood, burn-scar debris flow	WPC Slight; leftover from Wed Moderate	Diurnal terrain cells
Western / north-central OH	Trees, wires, barn and roof damage	LSRs overnight; warnings expired	Just-hit
Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MO	Quarter to half-dollar hail	LSRs overnight	Just-hit / same offices own today’s risk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Isolated severe hail on the Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Salt Lake, Provo, or southeast Idaho. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. Edouard is already in the archive. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Utah or Idaho county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Friday) holds Marginal Risk across parts of the northern Intermountain West, the central Great Plains into the southern middle Missouri Valley, and the Carolina–Georgia Piedmont. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into that Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 1200 UTC–20260917 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion (Kleebauer); National Weather Service warning text including Cleveland OH, Salt Lake City, Springfield MO, and Phoenix/Flagstaff/Tucson overnight flood products now expired; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 16 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

This is a live Wednesday afternoon snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook still holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of northern Utah and parts of Ohio and vicinity. No convective watches are valid. Two mesoscale discussions are out this afternoon — MD 2302 for east-central Indiana into central Ohio and MD 2303 for northeastern Utah — both tagged severe potential, watch unlikely. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook still holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

What is organized this afternoon is water in the Southwest, not a Midwest derecho. Restoration exposure is isolated damaging wind or hail if a cell or small cluster holds together in Ohio or Utah, plus flash flood and burn-scar runoff where the monsoon plume sits over Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, and the San Juans. Conditions change by county. Verify with the National Weather Service before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

SPC issued the 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0232 PM CDT, valid 162000Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. The 20Z update said the forecast remains generally on track with only minor changes. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Fort Wayne, Akron, and Salt Lake City. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

MD 2302, issued 0246 PM CDT for east-central Indiana into central Ohio, valid through 162145Z: isolated thunderstorms near the Indiana/Ohio state line ahead of a stalled front. Temperatures in the 80s to near 90 F with mid-70s dewpoints. Effective shear 20–30 kt. Most probable peak gust up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 5 percent.

MD 2303, issued 0353 PM CDT for portions of northeastern Utah, valid through 162300Z: a developing supercell in a 500–1000 J/kg MLCAPE environment with 40–50 kt effective shear. Primary risk large hail (most probable 1.00–1.75 inches) plus isolated damaging gusts up to 60 mph. Watch issuance probability 20 percent. Watch still unlikely.

WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, valid 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, keeps the organized water story in the Southwest. Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona, including the Phoenix metro and the Mogollon Rim, and over the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico around the Ruidoso burn-scar country. High-end Slight Risk covers much of Arizona into southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and much of New Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered flash-flood prospects remain possible later across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front, and again tonight along the I-80 corridor from Iowa into northern Illinois.

SPC preliminary storm reports for the current 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornado, hail, or wind reports as of this afternoon desk. Yesterday’s 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window is the just-hit file.

Hotspot 1 — East-central Indiana into central and eastern Ohio

SPC’s 1630 and 2000 UTC discussions keep the Ohio Valley on precip-loaded downdrafts, not supercells. PWAT values approaching 2 inches and steep low-level lapse rates can still produce strong or occasionally damaging winds. MD 2302 is the afternoon confirmation that cells are already firing near the state line. Coverage is widely scattered. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit how long any one core lasts.

Overnight flash-flood warnings from Wilmington, Ohio, and Northern Indiana for Mercer County, Ohio, and Grant, Blackford, Adams, and Wells counties, Indiana, have expired. Those counties already took 1.5 to 3 inches before dawn. That water is still on the ground even if the warning product is dead.

Restoration read: wind first if a cluster organizes through early evening, then trees and lines. Water first in the counties that already flooded overnight. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus–Pittsburgh belt before the first new warning, not after it.

Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

This remains today’s organized flood ticket. WPC language still prints 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the south-central Arizona desert including Phoenix and surrounds, the Mogollon Rim, southern Utah slot-canyon country from Zion toward Moab, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language around Ruidoso and similar terrain.

SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 2000 UTC outlook. Water is the story. Gusty outflow is possible. Do not invent a severe-thunderstorm watch here.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hotspot 3 — Northeastern Utah into far northwest Colorado

Moisture has increased across Utah over the past 24 hours, with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s and PWAT over 1 inch. A band of 35–45 kt southwesterly mid-level flow is enough for a few rotating storms. MD 2303 is the live product on that cell: hail first, isolated wind second, watch unlikely. Grand Junction’s overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County expired before dawn. That scar can still run if another core sits on it.

Restoration read: isolated hail and wind tickets around the Wasatch Front and northeastern Utah valleys if the supercell holds. Burn-scar runoff is a separate life-safety problem from a roof-survey call in Salt Lake, West Valley, Provo, or Orem.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for 15/1200Z–16/1159Z show no tornadoes. Hail included 2.00 inches at Edgerton, Johnson County, Kansas; 1.75 inches west of Cairo, Randolph County, Missouri; 1.50 inches near Alta, Peoria County, Illinois; and 1.00-inch stones at Smyer, Texas, and Richmond, Missouri. Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a nearby plant; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas, and southeast of Hazelton, Kansas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph south of Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Richmond and the Kansas City suburbs (Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, west of Raytown); trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; 65 mph near Wallen, Allen County, Indiana; numerous trees down near Lake Wawasee, Kosciusko County, Indiana; and power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

Kansas City/Pleasant Hill still has river flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new convective watch. Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This afternoon treats that corridor as aftermath plus river follow-through.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this afternoon
East-central IN / central–eastern OH	Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood	SPC Marginal; MD 2302 watch unlikely	Cells live near the state line
Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM	Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today’s organized water ticket
Northeastern UT / NW CO	Isolated hail and gusts, burn-scar runoff	SPC Marginal; MD 2303 watch unlikely	Supercell language this afternoon
NE KS / NW MO / Grand River	River flooding, wind/hail damage	Flood warnings; LSRs last night	Just-hit / in channel
IA / northern IL (tonight)	Training rain after 03Z	WPC Slight along I-80 corridor	Nocturnal pulse still ahead
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60 mph is trees, lines, gutters, and isolated roof work — not a regional CAT. Two-inch hail from last night is already a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: the afternoon window is now, not tonight. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this afternoon. Two MCDs with watch-unlikely tags are not watches. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a hail core in northeastern Utah, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday, valid 171200Z–181200Z) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. The 1730 UTC Day 2 discussion leaves room for later low-end wind probabilities near the Appalachians and Ohio Valley but kept the threat too marginal for an outlook area in this update. WPC still has a nocturnal Slight flood overlay from Iowa into northern Illinois late tonight, plus lingering Southwest water. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 0100 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this afternoon’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Chalmers/Weinman, previous Hart/Chalmers); 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook; current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); Mesoscale Discussion 2302; Mesoscale Discussion 2303; SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 and 20260915; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Kleebauer, 352 AM EDT); National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlooks, September 16, 2026 (no tropical cyclones in Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific).

Morning desk: Wednesday, September 16 morning Storm Updates. Prior afternoon: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, MD, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley Marginal, Arizona–New Mexico Flood Moderate — Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Overnight convection across the south-central Plains into the Midwest produced wind and hail. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah into far northwest Colorado. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus water on the Missouri River system and a new monsoon-style flood ticket in Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0745 AM CDT. Valid 161300Z–171200Z. Headline: isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Columbus, Pittsburgh, Akron, Salt Lake City, and Dayton. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch was Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language for the period beginning 12Z Wednesday has shifted the organized water story west. The Moderate Risk that covered northeastern Kansas into northwest Missouri on Tuesday is now the just-hit and river-flood desk. Today’s Moderate Risk is over southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico, with a high-end Slight Risk across much of Arizona into southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Isolated flash-flood prospects remain possible later today across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio if cells train on the residual front.

Hotspot 1 — Indiana into Ohio and the upper Ohio Valley

A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over Illinois and northwest Indiana is forecast to track east across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Mid-level westerlies stay modest, generally 20–30 kt. SPC expects additional convective development this afternoon across parts of Indiana into Ohio as a moist low-level airmass destabilizes. Poor lapse rates aloft should limit updraft strength. Locally damaging winds are the hazard if loosely organized clusters form and spread east through early evening, then weaken with loss of heating.

Overnight LSRs already put trees and lines down in Kosciusko and Noble counties in Indiana, plus a measured 65 mph gust near Wallen in Allen County. Northern Indiana and Wilmington, Ohio, offices issued overnight flash-flood warnings for heavy rain of 1.5 to 3 inches in parts of Grant, Blackford, Adams, Wells, and Mercer counties. Those products expired this morning. The water is still on the ground.

Restoration read: wind first this afternoon if clusters organize. Water first in the counties that already took 2–3 inches before dawn. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Indianapolis–Fort Wayne–Dayton–Columbus belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning.

Hotspot 2 — Southern and central Arizona, Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico

This is today’s organized flood ticket. WPC upgraded Day 1 excessive rainfall to Moderate Risk over portions of southern and central Arizona and the Sacramento Mountains. Guidance continues to print 2–3 inches, locally higher, where storms focus on the Mogollon Rim, south-central Arizona including the Phoenix metro and surrounds, southern Utah slot-canyon country, the San Juans of Colorado, and the Sacramentos. Rates above 1 inch per hour for multiple hours are in the discussion. Burn-scar debris flow remains the life-safety language on higher terrain.

SPC did not hang severe probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico on the 1300 UTC outlook. Modest lapse rates, cloud cover, and only marginal deep-layer shear keep the severe-wind/hail threat limited. Gusty outflow is still possible. Water is the story.

Restoration read: extraction and drying on a 24–48 hour mold clock if cells stall over the same ZIP. Photograph interiors only when it is safe. Do not drive flooded washes.

Hotspot 3 — Utah into far northwest Colorado, plus leftover Kansas–Missouri water

On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low over northern California, 35–45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the Great Basin. Ongoing storms over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado are in a strongly sheared but weakly unstable environment. SPC leaves room for isolated severe hail or gusts if cells or small clusters can form with filtered afternoon heating. Limited heating should keep the overall severe risk marginal. Grand Junction issued an overnight flash-flood warning for the Lee Burn Scar in central Rio Blanco County; that product expired before dawn.

Kansas and northwest Missouri are no longer the new Moderate Risk. They are the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs include 2.00-inch hail at Edgerton, Kansas; 1.75-inch hail west of Cairo, Missouri; trees, wires, and power poles in Richmond, Ray County; wires down around Greenwood, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, and west of Raytown; and a small building damaged north of Clifton Hill. Kansas City/Pleasant Hill has flood warnings on the Grand River near Chillicothe, Sumner, and Brunswick with crests later this week. That is channel water from Tuesday night, not a new watch.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the 15/1200Z–16/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail clustered from the Texas South Plains through the Kansas City metro into Peoria County, Illinois (1.50 inches near Alta). Wind included 75 mph at McConnell Air Force Base in Sedgwick County, Kansas, with wall panels ripped at a plant nearby; 71 mph at Alva, Oklahoma, and railroad cars overturned east of Avard; 70 mph near Morton, Texas; an RV flipped west of Smyer, Texas; 67 mph at Junction, Utah; trees and lines in Congerville and Brimfield, Illinois; power lines down near Humble City and Eunice, New Mexico.

Tuesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Kansas–Missouri Moderate flood risk while it was live. This morning’s desk treats that corridor as aftermath plus river-flood follow-through.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
IN / OH / upper Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging wind, leftover flash flood	SPC Marginal; overnight FFWs expired	Afternoon clusters possible
Southern/central AZ, Sacramento Mtns NM	Flash flood, debris flow on burn scars	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Today’s organized water ticket
Eastern UT / NW CO	Isolated hail/gusts, burn-scar runoff	SPC Marginal	Afternoon cells possible
NE KS / NW MO / Grand River	River flooding, wind/hail damage	Flood warnings; LSRs overnight	Just-hit / in channel
TX South Plains / NW OK / south-central KS	Measured severe gusts, isolated hail	LSRs overnight; no watch now	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Wind at 60–75 mph is roof, siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. Two-inch hail is a roof-survey ticket in Johnson County, Kansas, and neighboring ZIPs. Flash flooding on the Arizona–New Mexico Moderate Risk is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Grand River crests later this week are a separate staffing problem from today’s monsoon cells. Do not send one crew to both stories without checking which county has a warning now.

For teams near the Ohio Valley Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk day, not a live watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. A trough several hundred miles east of Bermuda has only a low chance of development and is not a land threat today. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a wind swath through an Indiana or Ohio county, a flooded wash in Arizona or New Mexico, leftover river water in north-central Missouri.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) currently carries no severe thunderstorm areas. WPC Day 2 holds Slight Risks of excessive rainfall for portions of the north-central Plains, Upper Midwest, and southwestern U.S. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260915 1200 UTC–20260916 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion; National Weather Service warning text including Wilmington OH, Northern Indiana, Grand Junction, Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Quad Cities, and Lubbock; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 16, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Tuesday, September 15 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 16, 2026

Storm Updates: Eastern Nebraska–Iowa Slight Risk, Iowa Flood Moderate — Monday, September 14, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Monday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of Monday, September 14, 2026. Overnight the organized wind corridor that ran the upper Ohio Valley into New York is down. No Storm Prediction Center watches are currently valid. The Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0746 AM CDT holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. The Weather Prediction Center overlays a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall on central and southwestern Iowa, with a broader Slight Risk from eastern Nebraska through the Midwest and a separate Slight Risk over the Southwest monsoon corridor.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is wind and hail on the Nebraska–Iowa Slight, interior water where Iowa cells train south of I-80 tonight, and leftover tree-and-roof work from Sunday evening in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC lists no current convective watches. The most recently issued watch was number 667 earlier in the week; Sunday’s Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor produced local severe thunderstorm warnings and wind damage but did not carry an overnight watch into Monday morning.

The 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook (valid 1300Z Monday through 1200Z Tuesday) draws the Slight Risk from roughly Grand Island and Hastings east-northeast through Omaha and Lincoln into western and central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro on the eastern edge. A Marginal Risk wraps a wider ring from the Dakotas and Minnesota south through Kansas. Elevated convection is already ongoing this morning across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley on a strong low-level jet. SPC expects that band to stay mostly sub-severe and weaken late morning, then a new surface-based corridor to fire along or just ahead of a cold front across eastern Nebraska by late afternoon.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, updated 0733 UTC, is the louder product this morning: Moderate Risk over portions of central and southwestern Iowa, with locally 3 to 6 inches possible south of I-80 toward Des Moines and points southwest. A broad Slight Risk still covers much of the Midwest from eastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota and the Door Peninsula, plus a separate Slight over eastern Arizona, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado.

Hotspot 1 — Eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa

This is today’s organized severe desk. A mid-level shortwave and 50–70-plus kt mid-level jet move east-northeast across the northern Plains. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream north into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa after morning convection clears. SPC allows a narrow corridor of 2,000–3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE if surface temperatures reach the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Initial storms should be supercellular enough for large hail. Mode is expected to transition quickly to clusters and line segments. A 40–50 kt nocturnal low-level jet supports ample storm-relative helicity this evening; a sustained surface-based supercell would conditionally be capable of a strong tornado. That is the official language, not a guarantee that one occurs.

Cities and counties to watch: Lincoln, Omaha, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Des Moines, Ames, and the I-80 belt from Grand Island through western Iowa. Watch issuance, if it comes, is an afternoon product — not a morning one.

Restoration read: hail and wind first on the Nebraska side; water second once the same storms cluster over Iowa after dark. Stage tarps and generators before 4 p.m. local. If a warning includes both wind and heavy rain, treat the ZIP as a dual ticket by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Central and southwestern Iowa flood overlay

WPC introduced a small Moderate Risk for D1 in coordination with the Des Moines office. HREF blended mean QPF runs 3–5 inches over the area encompassing Des Moines and points south and southwest. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches are 60–80 percent in that pocket, with 25–30 percent for more than 5 inches. Three-hour flash-flood guidance exceedance sits 50–70 percent. The main concerns are urban footprints and low-water crossings south of I-80. Heavy rain is expected to linger into early Tuesday morning.

A broader Slight still covers eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Isolated flash-flood concerns this morning ride the progressive elevated band; the more appreciable footprint is the evening and overnight wave.

Restoration read: this is tonight’s water ticket. Extraction and drying clocks start the same night water is inside. Do not wait for a river flood warning if streets and finished basements are already taking the 1-inch-per-hour cores.

Hotspot 3 — Sunday just-hit and Southwest scatter

Overnight LSRs from the 1200 UTC Sunday–Monday window show the Ohio Valley–Northeast slight-risk corridor verified as wind, not tornadoes. Preliminary reports include a roof ripped off a home and multiple trees down in Fox Township, Carroll County, Ohio; trees and wires across Lawrence, Butler, Crawford, McKean, and Clearfield counties in Pennsylvania; trees on structures and roads in Washington County, Ohio, and Wood County, West Virginia; and additional tree and wire damage in Onondaga, Oneida, Franklin, Fulton, and Saratoga counties in New York. Isolated 1.00-inch hail fell near Monarch and Raynesford, Montana, and 2 south of Sterling, Nebraska, after midnight. A 61 mph gust was measured near Patagonia, Arizona.

Today the Southwest stays a flood-and-outflow desk. WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over eastern Arizona, much of New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado on monsoon-style cells, burn scars, and slot canyons. SPC does not carry 5 percent severe probabilities there, but isolated strong gusts and small to near-severe hail are possible where heating is strongest. Eastern North Carolina sits under a cold front with only a low-end isolated wind/hail mention.

Just hit

Sunday’s upper Ohio Valley–central New York Slight Risk is yesterday’s ticket: trees, wires, and isolated roof work from eastern Ohio through northwest Pennsylvania into central New York. Watch 667 from Saturday is long expired. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land this morning. National Hurricane Center discussion shows no Atlantic tropical cyclones; Tropical Storm Norbert and a weakening eastern Pacific depression are well offshore and not a mainland or Hawaii landfall problem today.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Eastern NE / western–central IA	Large hail, damaging wind, few tornadoes possible	SPC Slight (1300Z)	Afternoon–evening; no watch yet
SW / central Iowa south of I-80	Flash flood, 3–6″ local totals	WPC Moderate excessive rainfall	Evening into Tuesday morning
OH / PA / WV / NY from Sunday	Trees, wires, isolated roof damage	LSRs; watches expired	Aftermath
Eastern CO / western–northern KS	Isolated severe gusts, high-based cells	SPC Marginal	Afternoon scatter
AZ / NM / SW CO	Flash flood, strong outflow	WPC Slight	Afternoon–evening cells
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC quiet on the mainland	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Eastern Nebraska this evening is hail and wind: roofs, siding, screens, and vehicles. Western and central Iowa is the dual ticket — the same storms that throw hail west of the Missouri River can train 3-plus inches of rain over Des Moines and counties southwest of I-80 after dark. A brief tornado, if one occurs, is a narrow swath. Staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional outbreak.

Sunday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–New York wind is already on the books: tree-on-structure, service drops, and isolated roof peel. Photograph remaining damage in daylight if it is safe, then move crews toward the Nebraska–Iowa corridor rather than chasing last night’s counties unless a specific claim is already open.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through an eastern Nebraska county, a flooded intersection south of I-80 in Iowa, leftover trees in Ohio or New York. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk as the same trough lifts toward the Upper Great Lakes. Day 3 currently carries no severe area. WPC language keeps heavy rain lingering into early Tuesday over the same Iowa footprint. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the 1300Z Slight is the last line of the day — a watch can still go up if the warm sector destabilizes as drawn.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, September 14, 2026 (Gleason/Lyons); SPC current watch page (no watches valid as of 1010 UTC); SPC preliminary local storm reports for the 13/1200Z–14/1159Z window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0733 UTC; National Hurricane Center Atlantic and East Pacific discussions this morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon, September 13 storm updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 14, 2026

Storm Updates: Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk, Kansas Wind Aftermath — Sunday, September 13, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Sunday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Sunday, September 13, 2026. Overnight into this morning the south-central Plains watch expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 is no longer valid. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and a second Marginal Risk across the central and northern High Plains, valid 131300Z–141200Z.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover Kansas wind and hail from last night, plus an afternoon wind corridor from Ohio into western New York and the Northeast if the front organizes. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. The most recently issued watch was Watch 667, covering portions of southwest Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle through 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday. That watch is expired. SPC’s 0744 AM CDT Sunday discussion (Gleason/Lyons) expects isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front by mid-afternoon (around 19–22Z) from parts of Ohio into western New York, then spreading quickly east across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Deep-layer shear of 35–45 kt is enough for supercells at first and a marginal, isolated hail threat despite poor lapse rates aloft. Clusters and bowing segments with isolated damaging wind are the more likely mode once linear forcing of the front takes over. Confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities. Convection should weaken this evening as it moves into a less unstable airmass.

A separate Marginal Risk sits from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle late afternoon, with elevated storms possible later tonight across western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley. Isolated hail and wind are the language there, not a watch.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast

This is today’s live outlook corridor, not a live watch. A surface cold front tracks east under a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet. Seasonably moist low-level air is in place, but poor mid-level lapse rates and cloud cover should keep instability marginal. That is why this is a Marginal Risk and not a Slight.

Cities and counties to watch this afternoon and evening: Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, and neighboring Ohio counties; Pittsburgh and the western Pennsylvania ridge; Buffalo and western New York; the northern West Virginia panhandle. SPC lists a Day 1 Marginal footprint of about 163,000 square miles and roughly 22.7 million people, with Columbus, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Buffalo named in the risk-area list.

Bands of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms were already ongoing this morning across New Jersey into southern New York and New England. Most guidance keeps that activity elevated over land. Trends still get monitored for any surface-based instability over Long Island and southern New England.

Restoration read: wind first if cells organize after 3 p.m. local. Stage tarps and tree crews in the Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York strip before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Water is secondary unless a cell trains on ground already wet from Saturday’s Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic rain.

Hotspot 2 — Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Panhandle just-hit

Watch 667 is the overnight ticket, not today’s new watch. Preliminary SPC local storm reports from the 12 UTC Saturday–12 UTC Sunday window include 2.00-inch hail north of Coldwater in Comanche County, Kansas, and northwest of Wilmore in Kiowa County around 0010–0015 UTC; golf-ball hail earlier near Beatrice, Nebraska, and Randall, Kansas; and measured wind of 84 mph at Chanute Martin Johnson Airport (KCNU) at 0545 UTC, with power outages and tree branches down in Chanute and utility poles near Galesburg in Neosho County. Additional measured gusts of 75 mph on the Kansas mesonet east-southeast of Acres in Clark County, 64 mph near Darrouzett in Lipscomb County, Texas, and snapped poles and a grain auger south of Perryton, Texas, sit in the same family.

Those are already claims. Photograph in daylight if it is safe. The new work today, if it verifies after 13 UTC Sunday, is isolated damaging wind on the Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk plus isolated High Plains hail and wind.

Hotspot 3 — High Plains and leftover water

A closed mid- and upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning moves toward the northern Rockies and High Plains. Destabilization is limited. A narrow upslope corridor from northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle is the afternoon cell area. Elevated storms may increase later tonight over western and central South Dakota toward the mid-Missouri Valley, with isolated hail on the first development.

Saturday’s Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook carried a Slight Risk over portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and southern Arizona, with the northern New Jersey–New York City–Long Island piece weighted toward late Saturday night into Sunday. That water is already in streets, small streams, and some interiors. Treat leftover flood statements as aftermath, not a new national headline, and check the current WPC Day 1 map and local NWS flood products before you assign a crew.

Just hit

Saturday’s Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk and Watch 667 produced the hail and wind listed above. Pennsylvania tree and wire reports from Saturday afternoon in Washington, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Indiana, Jefferson, and Greene counties are already on the books from the previous flood-and-wind pulse. A Flagler County, Florida, landspout near Palm Coast and an EF-0 survey east of Spring Grove in Surry County, Virginia, are local Saturday reports, not today’s organized corridor.

The National Hurricane Center discussion this morning shows no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land. The Atlantic remains quiet for a named-storm landfall. A central Atlantic wave is being monitored at low odds and is not a U.S. mainland desk item this morning.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Upper OH Valley / Northeast	Isolated damaging wind, brief hail	SPC Marginal (Day 1 1300 UTC)	Outlook live; no watch
Central / northern High Plains	Isolated hail and wind	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon into tonight
SW Kansas / Oklahoma / TX Panhandle	Wind to 84 mph, 2-inch hail overnight	Watch 667 expired	Just-hit / claims
OH Valley–Mid-Atlantic water	Flash flood leftover from Saturday Slight ERO	Local flood products	Aftermath; verify county
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling named storm	NHC quiet on the coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

An 84 mph airport gust and snapped poles are roof, siding, tree-on-structure, and service-drop work in Neosho, Comanche, Kiowa, Clark, and neighboring Kansas counties plus the Perryton, Texas, corridor. Two-inch hail is vehicle and roof claims on a narrow path. Today’s Ohio Valley–Northeast Marginal Risk is a thinner wind desk: isolated gusts, not a regional derecho. Staff it as county warnings, not a multi-state surge.

Water from Saturday night into Sunday morning along the I-95 and upper Ohio Valley axis is a 24–48 hour mold clock if it is already inside. Do not send the same crew to Chanute wind and a Pittsburgh or northern New Jersey water job without checking which county still has a warning.

What this is not

This is not a live severe thunderstorm watch and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work this morning is leftover Kansas and Texas Panhandle wind and hail. The work this afternoon, if it comes, will be scattered wind along the front from Ohio into the Northeast and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Monday (Day 2) the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late afternoon into evening across parts of eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa — an isolated severe storm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster, near Omaha, Lincoln, Council Bluffs, and Ames. Destabilization along a northward-retreating front remains the uncertainty. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming Sunday’s Marginal Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC current watches page (no watches valid as of 0814 UTC Sunday; most recently issued watch 667); SPC today’s storm reports for the 20260912 1200 UTC–20260913 1159 UTC window; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook language covering Saturday into early Sunday; National Hurricane Center Atlantic tropical weather discussion 1215 UTC Sunday; National Weather Service warning text for Wichita, Dodge City, Amarillo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and neighboring offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Saturday afternoon, September 12 storm updates (Watch 667).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 13, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk, Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Saturday, September 12, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse that ran eastern South Dakota into Minnesota has expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666 is down. No convective watches are valid as of mid-morning UTC. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook has upgraded the afternoon and evening corridor to a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is large hail and damaging wind on the Plains, plus interior water where Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight vs what is live this morning

Watch 666 covered southwestern into north-central Minnesota and eastern South Dakota from 6:40 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday. Primary language was scattered large hail, isolated very large hail to two inches, damaging gusts to 70 mph, and a tornado or two if a supercell held together early in the watch. That watch is expired. SPC current watches page as of 12:03 UTC Saturday: no watches valid. Last issued watch remains 666.

What is live this morning is the outlook, not a watch. The 0748 AM CDT Saturday Day 1 convective outlook is valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday. Headline: there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains. Summary language: isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe or damaging winds may occur across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and evening. A separate Marginal Risk corridor remains over the upper Ohio Valley for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon.

WPC’s current Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook, issued 339 AM EDT Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Precipitable water of 2.0 to 2.25 inches is forecast to stream north along the I-95 corridor from Richmond and Washington toward Baltimore and Philadelphia by Saturday evening, then into the New York metro and lower Long Island late Saturday night. That late-night northern end of the slight risk is expected to linger into Sunday (Day 2).

Hotspot 1 — Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into the Ozarks

This is today’s severe ticket. Elevated storms persisted overnight into early morning across southern Nebraska into eastern Kansas and western Missouri on a modest low-level jet. SPC expects that activity to weaken through the remainder of the morning, with some guidance still showing additional development along outflow across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A fairly strong cold front is draped from eastern Colorado into Kansas and northwest Missouri. That boundary is the afternoon focus.

Along and south of the front, a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000–3500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon from the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear of about 30–40 kt is enough for organized updrafts. Isolated robust development along the front is favored around 21–23Z once convective temperatures are reached. Sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large hail, including isolated two-inch-plus stones. Higher-based convection from the eastern Panhandles into southwest and south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma favors scattered severe downdrafts. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. Clustering later this afternoon and evening remains uncertain, but isolated damaging wind may persist into much of Oklahoma and the Ozarks if upstream storms in Kansas and western Missouri stay organized.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Emporia, Liberal, and Derby in the Slight Risk core; Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Kansas City sit in the surrounding Marginal Risk. Restoration read: hail first in the Slight Risk, then wind. Stage tarps and roof kits before mid-afternoon local. If a cell trains on the same ZIP, treat it as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor

This is today’s flood ticket, not the hail ticket. SPC keeps only a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind across parts of the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon in a narrow corridor of filtered heating between denser clouds over Ohio and a stationary boundary to the east. Mid-level lapse rates stay poor. The bigger operational signal is WPC. HREF signals include moderate-to-high chances of three- and six-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and a 20–40 percent chance of three-hour QPF over two inches from the Richmond area late Saturday afternoon, then from northeast Maryland into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York metro and lower Long Island, with that northern end weighted late Saturday night into Sunday.

Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, the upper Ohio Valley; Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, northern New Jersey, New York City, and lower Long Island on the late-day and overnight rain axis. Restoration read: urban street flooding, low crossings, and wet drywall where cells train. The 24–48 hour mold clock starts when water is inside, not when the outlook expires.

Hotspot 3 — Just-hit Upper Midwest and leftover Arizona water

Friday evening’s Slight Risk over far eastern South Dakota into Minnesota verified locally. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday to 1159 UTC Saturday window include a tornado touchdown reported seven miles northeast of Artichoke in Stevens County, Minnesota, around 0051 UTC, plus downed power poles eight miles south of Alberta on County Highway 9. Golf-ball hail (1.75 inches) was reported east and south of Artichoke and south of Alberta. Half-dollar hail fell near Dumont, Herman, Norcross, and Toronto, South Dakota. Wind damage and trees on lines were reported around Chokio, Embarrass and Britt in St. Louis County, Whipholt and Longville in Cass County, and Blue Grass in Wadena County, with one report noting possible tornado damage and large trees blocking County Road 23.

Separate Friday hail and wind clusters hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington and Mansfield, golf-ball hail and trees and poles down), Bexar County, Texas after 0310 UTC (golf-ball hail near Converse), and a long tree-down corridor through South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Arizona flash-flood warnings fired Friday evening over Gila, Coconino, Navajo, Cochise, and Graham Counties, including fire-scar drainages. Those Arizona warnings were evening products; treat them as just-hit water, not today’s new Slight Risk.

Just hit

Minnesota and eastern South Dakota are yesterday’s tickets: hail, trees, poles, and at least one reported tornado touchdown that still needs a damage survey, not a new watch. North Texas and San Antonio-area hail are Friday afternoon and overnight work already on the books. The Carolinas and southern Virginia tree-down scatter is the same. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Kansas–Oklahoma hail and wind corridor plus localized flash flooding from the Ohio Valley onto the Mid-Atlantic I-95 axis tonight.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern KS / northern OK / Panhandles / Ozarks	Large to very large hail, damaging wind, isolated 75+ mph gusts	SPC Slight (core) + Marginal surround	Outlook live; no watch yet
Upper Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging wind; heavy rain / flash flood	SPC Marginal + WPC Slight ERO	Afternoon increase
Mid-Atlantic I-95 (RIC–DC–BAL–PHL–NYC)	Training heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight ERO	Late afternoon through Saturday night
Eastern SD / west-central and northern MN	Hail, trees, poles, reported tornado	Watch 666 expired 10 p.m. CDT Fri	Aftermath / just-hit
North Texas / San Antonio metro	Friday hail and wind	Local LSRs	Aftermath
Southeast AZ fire scars / washes	Flash flood from Friday cells	Expired FFWs	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: formation not expected next 7 days in Atlantic	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Two-inch hail is roof and auto glass work in the Slight Risk counties. Gusts of 60–75 mph are siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A reported tornado near Artichoke, Minnesota, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic heavy rain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Wichita hail and Pittsburgh flooding without checking which county actually has a warning now.

For teams in or near the Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center Atlantic outlook at 800 AM EDT Saturday: tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Norbert is well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is not a U.S. land threat. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a wind-thrown tree in the upper Ohio Valley, a flooded underpass where Mid-Atlantic cells train. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk Sunday afternoon and evening from western New England through the upper Ohio Valley for small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. Day 3 is also Marginal. Fire-weather outlooks are Elevated today and Sunday. The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Slight Risk is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 12, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0748 AM CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; most recently issued Watch 666); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260911 1200 UTC–20260912 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 339 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Weather Service watch/warning text feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 11 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Upper Midwest Slight Risk, Texas Panhandle Hail and Wind Overnight — Friday, September 11, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Friday, September 11, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse was limited and mostly High Plains–oriented. No convective watches are currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center has elevated a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the Upper Midwest later today, with a broader Marginal Risk covering the central Plains into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota, with localized flash-flood potential still lingering from overnight activity in the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is active in the Eastern Pacific well offshore and poses no threat to U.S. land. Restoration exposure today centers on residual wind and hail damage from the Texas Panhandle overnight, lingering water in West Virginia and Ohio counties, and the new Slight Risk corridor from far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are in effect as of the 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook. The most recent watch was Watch 665 from Wednesday evening. Overnight Local Storm Reports show a concentrated hail and wind event across the Texas Panhandle and nearby High Plains counties, with measured gusts to 87 mph near Colby, Kansas, and hail up to 2.25 inches near Lake Tanglewood in Randall County, Texas. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings were issued overnight for portions of eastern Arkansas, north-central West Virginia, southeastern Ohio, and the Virginia Eastern Shore; most of those products have expired or are in their final hours this morning.

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook highlights a Slight Risk across parts of the Upper Midwest—primarily far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota—for large hail (isolated 2+ inches possible), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. A broader Marginal Risk extends south into the central Plains and eastward across the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia for more disorganized pulse-type storms capable of occasional damaging gusts.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Midwest Slight Risk (northeast SD into western/northern MN)

This is the primary organized severe corridor for today. A mid-level shortwave trough ejecting across the northern Plains will support a surface low and cold front. Moderate destabilization and 35–45 kt deep-layer shear favor initial supercells capable of large hail, with a transition to clusters and bowing segments producing damaging winds this evening. A low-end tornado threat exists if any cells remain discrete into the early evening when low-level shear increases. Confidence is higher in the far northeast SD–western MN axis than farther south into the central Plains, where initiation remains more conditional.

Cities and counties to watch: Aberdeen and Watertown areas in South Dakota; St. Cloud, Willmar, Duluth, Superior, Hibbing, and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Restoration read: stage for hail and wind. Large hail can produce concentrated roof and vehicle damage; clustering storms raise the tree-and-wire risk after dark. Photograph in remaining daylight only if safe.

Hotspot 2 — Texas Panhandle and High Plains overnight hits

Thursday evening into early Friday produced the most significant Local Storm Reports of the overnight window. Hail reports included 2.25-inch stones near Lake Tanglewood (Randall County, TX), 2.00-inch at Timbercreek Canyon, and multiple 1.00–1.75-inch reports around Pantex and Lake Tanglewood. Wind reports included an 87 mph gust 1 SE of Colby (Thomas County, KS), 67 mph near Pantex, 65 mph near Plainview (Hale County, TX) with snapped power poles and overturned vehicles, and additional 60–62 mph gusts across the Texas South Plains. Construction trailers and fences were damaged in the Plainview area.

Restoration read: this is already a just-hit desk. Hail-damaged roofs and vehicles in Randall, Carson, and Hale counties, plus wind-driven tree and pole work around Colby and Plainview, will generate same-day claims. Coordinate with local emergency management for access if power poles are down.

Hotspot 3 — Residual flood pulse (Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, eastern Arkansas)

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Slight Risk for far southern Arizona (Santa Cruz County area) and northern Minnesota. Overnight, Flash Flood Warnings were active across Randolph County, Arkansas; multiple north-central West Virginia counties (Braxton, Gilmer, Upshur, Lewis, Roane, Calhoun, Ritchie, Wirt, Jackson, Wood); southeastern Ohio (Gallia, Jackson, Meigs, Vinton); and southern Accomack County, Virginia. Several of those products noted observed flooding, including impassable sections of US 33 near Glenville, West Virginia, and residual high water into Friday morning.

Restoration read: water extraction and drying are already on the books in the warned West Virginia and Ohio counties. Northern Minnesota joins the slight-risk language later today as the same system that supports the severe threat also produces 1–2 inch (locally 3 inch) rainfall amounts with rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour. Southern Arizona remains a monsoon-style flash-flood pocket.

Just hit

Wednesday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced residual tree and wind damage that carried into Thursday. Thursday’s Marginal Risk corridor from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic generated the Texas Panhandle hail/wind event detailed above and scattered overnight flood warnings. Iowa river flooding from earlier in the week continues to recede in places. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone is present; Tropical Storm Norbert remains well out in the Eastern Pacific.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NE SD / western & northern MN	Large hail (2+” possible), damaging wind, couple tornadoes	SPC Slight	Late afternoon–tonight
TX Panhandle / High Plains	Hail to 2.25″, 60–87 mph gusts, pole/vehicle damage	Overnight LSRs	Just-hit / recovery
Central WV / SE OH / E AR	Flash flooding, residual high water	Expired/expiring FFWs + Flood Warnings	Aftermath / still draining
Far southern AZ	Flash flood rates	WPC Slight	Afternoon cells
Mid-South / TN Valley / Carolinas / VA	Occasional damaging gusts, pulse storms	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Overnight hail and wind in the Texas Panhandle is already producing roof, vehicle, and pole claims. Residual flash flooding in West Virginia and southeastern Ohio is extraction-and-dry work with a 24–48 hour mold clock on any wet drywall. Today’s new Slight Risk in the Upper Midwest is a classic late-afternoon to evening supercell-to-cluster transition: large hail first, then damaging wind as storms grow upscale. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for the Minnesota corridor before the evening transition. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Minnesota or South Dakota county, residual high water in a West Virginia hollow, or a wind-damaged construction site in the Texas South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday the convective outlook drops to Marginal. Critical fire-weather conditions are also noted by SPC for today over parts of the West. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Upper Midwest Slight Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1226Z Friday, September 11, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 10 September period; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832Z; National Weather Service warning text for Amarillo, Lubbock, Charleston WV, Little Rock, Wakefield, and neighboring offices. No active convective watches as of 1205Z.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk, Kansas–Missouri Flood Pulse — Thursday, September 10, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Thursday, September 10, 2026. Overnight the organized severe pulse from Wednesday’s Slight Risk and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 across northern Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York has largely expired. The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 outlook has settled into a broad Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms stretching from the southern High Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. The primary threat language is sporadic damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail possible over south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma–Texas Panhandles.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms. No named tropical cyclone currently threatens U.S. land. Restoration exposure today is residual wind and tree work from last night’s Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor, plus fresh flood and wind potential where the cold front and residual moisture continue to fire cells from the southern Plains eastward. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No convective watches are currently valid. Watch 665, the last active severe thunderstorm watch covering the Upper Ohio Valley and Lake Erie counties, has expired. SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook places a Marginal Risk across a long corridor from the southern High Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong daytime heating is expected south of residual cloud and overnight storms, with temperatures into the 90s to near 100°F over the southern Plains and upper 80s to mid-90s farther east. That buoyancy, coupled with the residual cold front and outflow boundaries, supports thunderstorms that can produce isolated severe gusts.

The Weather Prediction Center’s updated Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (valid 12Z Thursday–12Z Friday) carries a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance over a focused area from roughly southeast Ohio into central Kentucky and adjacent portions of West Virginia and Indiana. Broader Marginal Risk areas cover parts of the southern Plains, the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, the Southwest monsoon corridor, and a pocket in the Gulf coastal states.

Hotspot 1 — Residual Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York wind corridor

Wednesday evening’s Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced a series of severe thunderstorm warnings and local storm reports of tree and power-line damage across northern and central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and adjacent counties. Preliminary LSRs include tree and utility damage near Huron and Hartville, Ohio; Edinboro, Pennsylvania; and Chester, West Virginia, among others. The organized severe threat has moved on, but the restoration desk for those counties is still active: downed trees, service drops, and isolated roof or siding work from 50–70 mph gusts.

Cities and counties still in the aftermath window: Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Mansfield, and surrounding northern Ohio counties; Erie, Crawford, and northwest Pennsylvania; the northern West Virginia panhandle. Stage remaining tree and tarp crews for daylight surveys and carrier documentation.

Hotspot 2 — Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri flood pulse

Overnight and early this morning, training storms along and south of the cold front have produced locally heavy rainfall across southeast Kansas into portions of western and central Missouri. National Weather Service offices have issued Flood Warnings and Advisories for Allen, Labette, and Montgomery Counties in Kansas (into midday) and adjacent Missouri counties. Radar-estimated amounts of 1–4 inches, with rates of 1–3 inches per hour in stronger cores, have already produced flooding of low-lying roads, creeks, and poor-drainage areas. WPC’s Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the day is focused farther east into the Ohio Valley, but the Kansas–Missouri corridor remains the live water desk this morning.

Restoration read: extraction and drying work where water entered structures overnight. Photograph damage in daylight, document water lines, and treat any interior water as a same-day priority before the mold clock advances.

Hotspot 3 — Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic Marginal Risk this afternoon–evening

SPC expects the Marginal Risk corridor to re-fire with daytime heating. The primary hazard is sporadic damaging wind gusts from multicell clusters and short line segments along the residual front and outflow boundaries. Isolated large hail is possible over the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the Panhandles. Vertical shear is modest overall but sufficient for organized bowing segments farther east where buoyancy is lower but mid-level flow is stronger.

Key population centers under the Marginal Risk umbrella include parts of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, Memphis, Nashville, and the Washington, D.C., corridor, though the risk is scattered rather than continuous. Local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements are the expected mode of action rather than new watches.

Just hit — overnight LSRs

Preliminary Local Storm Reports from the 1200 UTC September 9 – 1159 UTC September 10 window include:

1.75-inch hail 8 SE of Colorado City, Huerfano County, Colorado (0600 UTC).
Wind gusts of 72 mph near Booker, Lipscomb County, Texas; 70 mph SSE of Mayfield, Sumner County, Kansas; 73 mph near Patagonia, Arizona; and multiple 58–78 mph readings in the Arizona–New Mexico border country and western Kansas overnight.
Numerous tree, limb, and power-line damage reports across northern and central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western West Virginia, and a long swath of eastern Kansas into western Missouri (Baldwin City, Wellington, Clinton, Holden, and surrounding towns).

No tornado reports were received in the preliminary data for this period. All reports remain preliminary and subject to verification.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Northern OH / NW PA / western NY	Residual wind / tree / power damage	Watch 665 expired	Aftermath / just-hit
SE Kansas / south-central Missouri	Flash flood, training heavy rain	Flood Warnings / Advisories active	Live water desk
Southern Plains to Mid-Atlantic	Damaging wind, isolated hail	SPC Marginal Risk	Afternoon–evening re-fire
SE Colorado / NE New Mexico / Panhandles	Isolated large hail, strong wind	SPC Marginal (hail-focused)	Afternoon terrain storms
Ohio Valley / central KY (WPC)	Excessive rainfall / flash flood	WPC Slight Risk	Day 1 outlook
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Wind damage from Wednesday night is already on the books in the Ohio–Pennsylvania corridor—tree removal, roof tarps, and service restoration. Kansas–Missouri flood work is the fresh ticket this morning: extract standing water, document, and start drying before temperatures climb. This afternoon’s Marginal Risk is scattered; the expected mode is isolated warnings rather than a continuous line. Stage for wind and isolated hail in the southern Plains and for additional water if cells train over already-wet ground in the Ohio Valley.

Property owners in just-hit counties should photograph damage in remaining daylight if safe, contact the carrier, and begin extraction the same day if water is inside. Teams working the Kansas–Missouri flood pulse should treat every interior water job as time-sensitive.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center products show no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin threatening U.S. land; Tropical Storms Lowell and Norbert remain well offshore in the Pacific. The work today is local: residual wind swaths from Wednesday night, flash-flood pockets in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, and scattered severe gusts under a broad Marginal Risk this afternoon and evening.

Looking ahead

SPC’s Day 2 outlook already carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of Nebraska into the Upper Midwest on Friday. The cold front will continue to shift east and south, keeping a wet and occasionally strong storm pattern across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the weekend. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming today’s Marginal Risk is the end of the corridor.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1300 UTC Thursday, September 10, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 1200 UTC September 9–1159 UTC September 10 period; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid as of early Thursday); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and 94e points text; National Weather Service warning and flood-statement text from Wichita, Springfield, and neighboring offices; National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlooks confirming no Atlantic threats to U.S. land.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 9 storm updates — Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 10, 2026