Tag: South Dakota

Storm Updates: New Mexico Flood Moderate, Dakotas–Appalachians Marginal — Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Wednesday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the morning of Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the flood desk ran ahead of the severe desk: National Weather Service flash-flood warnings for El Paso County, Texas; Amelia, Cumberland, and Powhatan counties in central Virginia; and a receding western North Carolina pulse around Lake Lure / Bat Cave / Chimney Rock. Those overnight warnings are treated as expired or expiring into this morning. Today’s desks: Storm Prediction Center Marginal Risk for parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians; Weather Prediction Center Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. No convective watches are currently valid.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land in the current National Hurricane Center picture. Restoration exposure today into tonight is water first in New Mexico and far west Texas, leftover street and creek flooding in central Virginia and the southern Appalachians, and isolated damaging gusts this afternoon if the two Marginal corridors heat. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Smith/Mead; valid 231300Z–241200Z) places a Marginal Risk over parts of the western Dakotas and the southern Appalachians. Summary: isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across those two corridors. Western Dakotas: mid-level trough moving out of Wyoming/Montana, lee trough, moisture plume off the High Plains, around 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE, isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. Southern Appalachians: mid-level vorticity maximum sliding southeast from the lower Ohio Valley; dewpoints in the 60s °F; 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE if heating wins against low cloud; strong to locally damaging gusts with the stronger cells. Hail probabilities were removed after the 12 UTC Nashville sounding showed poor 700–500 mb lapse rates (4.8 °C/km).

No convective watches were currently valid as of the SPC watches page update at 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Most recent watch on the board: 0674. Check spc.noaa.gov/products/watch before you stage.

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; Chenard; valid 12Z Wed–12Z Thu) holds a Moderate Risk across portions of central and eastern New Mexico. Scattered to numerous flash floods are expected; locally significant and life-threatening impacts remain possible on sensitive terrain, urban drainage, and burn scars. A widespread 1–2 inches is generally expected, with localized 2–4 inch swaths likely on top of rain that already fell before 12Z. The Slight risk extends into southeast Arizona and a slice of far west Texas if storms propagate east. Separate flood desks: Slight over portions of eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, and far western North Carolina; Marginal from Ohio into West Virginia and western Virginia/North Carolina; Marginal over south Florida.

Hotspot 1 — Central and eastern New Mexico / far west Texas

Today’s Moderate flood desk and the national headline. A well-defined mid-level shortwave lifts north-northeast across New Mexico with robust upper divergence and the chance of a weak surface low. Cloud cover is the limiter; daytime heating on the eastern edge of the rain shield plus easterly upslope should still support training cells in deep southerly flow. HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities of more than 3 inches run 40–70% across the eastern half of the Moderate area. Overnight El Paso County already took radar-indicated 0.5–1.5 inch bursts and flash-flood warnings that expired before dawn.

Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps and air movers before the afternoon/evening cores organize. Burn-scar runoff and arroyos fail first. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown — most flood deaths are in vehicles.

Hotspot 2 — Southern Appalachians / eastern Tennessee

Dual desk: SPC Marginal for isolated damaging gusts, WPC Slight for flash flood on wet ground from eastern Kentucky through eastern Tennessee into far western North Carolina. Extensive low cloud this morning is the uncertainty. If breaks allow 250–750 J/kg MLCAPE, multicells along the inverted trough can put down strong gusts around peak heating. HREF/REFS neighborhood flash-flood-guidance exceedance peaks over eastern Tennessee (above 40% in spots). Overnight, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg held a flash-flood warning into 5:45 a.m. EDT for southeastern Buncombe, northeastern Henderson, southwestern McDowell, northwestern Polk, and northwestern Rutherford counties — 2.5–4 inches already down, waters receding by 3:05 a.m. EDT, Rocky Broad near Bat Cave falling through 6.58 feet.

Restoration read: leftover water plus a second-chance afternoon pulse. Do not treat receding creeks as closed. Stage extractors in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina; tree and tarp crews only if the gusty cells actually fire.

Hotspot 3 — Western Dakotas

New SPC Marginal added on the 1300 UTC outlook. Mid-level trough crossing Wyoming/Montana reaches the western Dakotas late afternoon and deamplifies toward the Red River Valley by Thursday morning. Lee trough holds a moisture plume north from the central High Plains. Widely scattered storms near the Black Hills and lee trough this afternoon; isolated marginally severe hail or gusts through early evening. No major population centers sit inside the 5% hail contour.

Restoration read: isolated wind and hail, not a regional outbreak. Stage only if you already work the Black Hills / western Dakota corridor. Do not pull crews off the New Mexico water desk for this.

Just hit

Overnight flood, not overnight severe. NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa issued flash-flood warnings for northwestern and central El Paso County into the small hours (radar 0.5–1.5 inches, additional 0.5–1 inch possible; warnings through 3:15 a.m. MDT). Otero Mesa / northwest of Dell City had 2.5–3 inches radar-estimated earlier in the night with rural-road flooding held off Dell City by retention dams. NWS Wakefield: up to 4 inches since 11 p.m. in northwestern Amelia County and up to 5.5 inches since 10 p.m. in western Powhatan County; warnings through 4:00–5:30 a.m. EDT. Western North Carolina pulse receding after 2.5–4 inches.

SPC local storm reports for the 22/1200Z–23/1159Z window carried no tornado and no hail. Wind reports from late Tuesday afternoon remain on the board for Lauderdale County, Alabama (Lexington / Rogersville): power lines down, a brush fire, and a power pole/lines on a vehicle — already noted on yesterday’s afternoon Tygart Media desk. Do not invent additional LSR points.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC / NWS level	Status this morning
Central / eastern NM and far west TX	Flash flood, training storms, burn-scar runoff	WPC Moderate	Live flood desk today–Thu 12Z
Southeast AZ	Localized flash flood	WPC Slight	Today
Eastern KY / eastern TN / far western NC	Flash flood + isolated damaging gusts	WPC Slight + SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening
Western Dakotas / Black Hills	Isolated hail / gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon–early evening
OH into WV / western VA–NC	Localized flash flood on wet soils	WPC Marginal	Today
South Florida	Urban flash flood	WPC Marginal	Local
El Paso / central VA / WNC overnight	Flash flood (expired/expiring FFWs)	Overnight NWS warnings	Aftermath / receding
U.S. mainland tropics	No landfalling named cyclone	NHC quiet for CONUS land	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

New Mexico and far west Texas remain water jobs if the Moderate risk verifies — extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock. Central Virginia and western North Carolina are aftermath from last night plus a second-chance flood axis this afternoon in eastern Tennessee. The Dakotas Marginal is isolated. Do not treat receding overnight warnings as a closed book; soils are primed. Stage before the New Mexico afternoon cores. Start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin at this hour. Hurricane Polo (Category 4, off southwest Mexico) and Hurricane Odalys (eastern Pacific, well west of Baja) are not CONUS land threats today. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is a Central Pacific system near Hawaii, not a mainland U.S. landfall. Today’s work, if it verifies, is scattered: New Mexico flash flood, leftover Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian water, isolated Dakotas hail/wind, isolated southern Appalachian gusts.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Thursday) and Day 3 currently show no severe thunderstorm areas. That does not cancel today’s New Mexico flood problem or this afternoon’s two Marginal corridors. Day 4–8 language is only a possible localized Plains/Mid-Mississippi threat next Monday–Wednesday with weak shear — too unclear for probabilities. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Moderate rainfall risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 7:26 a.m. CDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Smith/Mead); SPC watches page updated 09:44:06 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026; WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (Chenard); NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa, Wakefield, and Greenville-Spartanburg flash-flood products overnight; SPC local storm reports (Lauderdale County, Alabama wind from Tuesday afternoon); NHC Atlantic discussion 1215 UTC Wednesday, September 23, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and local storm reports, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Storm Updates September 22, 2026 — New Mexico Flood Moderate, Utah–Southeast Marginal.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 23, 2026

Storm Updates: Intermountain West + High Plains Marginal, Dakotas Flood Slight — Thursday, September 17, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Thursday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of early Thursday, September 17, 2026. Overnight convection left trees and wires down in western and north-central Ohio and quarter-to-half-dollar hail in eastern Utah and mid-Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Marginal Risk of isolated severe wind gusts and hail across parts of Utah and Idaho into southwest Montana, plus a second Marginal over the central High Plains. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds Slight Risks over portions of the north-central Plains and Midwest and over the southwestern U.S. There is no named tropical cyclone threatening U.S. land.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure this morning is leftover wind and hail from last night plus a new afternoon hail/wind corridor in the Intermountain West and a water ticket on the Dakotas, Wyoming Front Range, and leftover Southwest terrain. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

SPC issued the 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 0730 AM CDT. Valid 171300Z–181200Z. Headline: thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains. Risk-area population centers listed by SPC include Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, West Jordan, and Orem. Categorical risk is Marginal only. No Slight Risk. No tornado probabilities in the 1300 UTC package. The Ohio Valley Marginal from Wednesday is off the map this morning. Poor lapse rates aloft and extensive cloud cover keep severe-wind probabilities below 5 percent from the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic.

Current convective watches: none. Most recently issued watch remains Severe Thunderstorm Watch 669, already expired days ago. SPC watch page last updated 0849 UTC Thursday: no watches currently valid. That is the overnight close. Do not treat 669 as a live product.

WPC Day 1 excessive-rainfall language valid 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday has two Slight Risk corridors. One covers a high-end Slight across much of South Dakota, expanding toward Sioux Falls and into southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, and west-southwest to the Cheyenne, Wyoming region east of the Laramie Range. The other holds Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and western Colorado, with Marginal coverage into the Salt Lake corridor and southeastern Idaho. Wednesday’s Moderate Risk over southern and central Arizona is no longer the live upgrade. It is the just-hit and burn-scar follow-through desk.

Hotspot 1 — Utah, Idaho, and southwest Montana

A closed mid/upper-level low over northern California this morning will drift east across the northern Intermountain region. A 40–50 kt southwesterly mid-level jet and difluence aloft overspread the northern Great Basin this afternoon. SPC’s uncertainty is instability under morning cloud and ongoing rain. Upper-40s to low-50s dewpoints are already in place. Some guidance still builds 1000–1250 J/kg of MLCAPE over southeast Idaho and northern Utah if heating punches through. If that happens, a focused corridor of greater hail and wind potential exists because deep-layer shear is strong enough for supercells. Otherwise the threat is isolated hail and gusty winds with cells and small clusters across the northern Great Basin.

Overnight LSRs already put quarter-size hail at Huntington in Emery County and at East Carbon and Sunnyside in Carbon County. That is the same Salt Lake City forecast office that will own this afternoon’s cells.

Restoration read: hail first if discrete cells fire over the Wasatch Front and southeast Idaho. Wind second. Stage roof and auto-glass survey capacity in the Salt Lake–Provo–Boise belt before late afternoon, not after the first warning. Flash-flood risk on this corridor is Marginal to isolated, not the organized Dakotas ticket.

Hotspot 2 — Central High Plains and the Dakotas water corridor

Between the West Coast upper low and Southeast ridging, minor mid-level perturbations lift northeast from the Southwest toward the central High Plains by evening. SPC expects additional storms from northeast Colorado into western Nebraska late afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit updraft intensity. Sufficient shear still allows a small cluster or two with isolated severe gusts spreading east-northeast through the evening. That is the wind overlay on top of WPC’s water story.

WPC is more organized here than SPC. A tropical-origin shortwave ejecting out of Arizona will pivot through the central Rockies and into the northern Plains tonight. Precipitable-water anomalies approach the 95th–99th percentile from South Dakota into southern Minnesota by the end of the period. Discussion language includes 2–4 inches, locally higher, with HREF neighborhood probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50–80 percent across a large High Plains swath. The centroid of greater-than-3-inch probabilities sits just east and southeast of Rapid City into Badlands National Park. The Slight Risk was expanded east toward Sioux Falls for the last 6–8 hours of the forecast.

Restoration read: water first from the Wyoming Front Range across western and central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight into Friday morning. Wind second if High Plains clusters organize. Do not send one crew to both a Cheyenne gust and a Rapid City wash without checking which county has a warning now.

Hotspot 3 — Southwest terrain leftover plus Ohio just-hit

The shortwave that drove Wednesday’s Arizona Moderate flood risk is leaving. WPC still keeps a Slight Risk over New Mexico and eastern Arizona into the San Juans and Sacramentos. Guidance still prints 1–3 inches on the Sangre de Cristos, San Juans, and interior New Mexico terrain. Sacramento Mountains burn-scar sensitivity remains in the discussion as locally Moderate impacts embedded inside a higher-end Slight. That is runoff on ground that already took water Wednesday, not a new Moderate upgrade.

Ohio is off today’s SPC Marginal. It is the just-hit desk. Overnight LSRs from the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window include multiple trees down in Versailles and Piqua, a snapped hardwood onto a home awning in Darke County, barn sheet-metal loss and a blown silo near West Alexandria in Preble County, and trees and wires southeast of Mansfield in Richland County. NWS Cleveland had severe thunderstorm warnings into mid-evening Wednesday for Richland, Ashland, Holmes, and Knox counties. Those products are expired. The trees are still on the lines.

Just hit

SPC preliminary storm reports for the 16/1200Z–17/1159Z window show no tornadoes. Hail: 1.00 inch at Huntington, Emery County, Utah; 1.00 inch at East Carbon and Sunnyside, Carbon County, Utah; 1.00 to 1.25 inches near Linn Creek, Camden County, Missouri, with two-foot-diameter limbs down. Wind: downed power lines in Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona; trees in Versailles, Darke County, and Piqua and Lockington, Miami County, Ohio; a snapped pole and large limb near Broken Arrow, Tulsa County, Oklahoma; a power line and a condo-garage roof near Osage Beach and Linn Creek, Missouri; barn roofing and a grain silo near West Alexandria, Preble County, Ohio; trees and wires southeast of Mansfield.

Today’s 17/1200Z cycle has no tornado, hail, or wind reports yet as of this morning desk. That is expected. The Intermountain and High Plains threats are an afternoon and evening problem.

Wednesday afternoon’s Storm Tracker already covered the Ohio Valley Marginal and the Arizona Moderate flood risk while they were live. This morning’s desk treats Ohio wind and Arizona washes as aftermath and moves the live outlook west and north.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
UT / ID / SW MT	Isolated hail and severe gusts; possible supercells if CAPE builds	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening cells
NE CO / western NE / High Plains	Isolated severe gusts	SPC Marginal	Late afternoon clusters
WY Front Range / SD / SW MN / NW IA	Flash flood, 2–4″ swaths	WPC Slight (high-end over SD)	Today’s organized water ticket
NM / E AZ / San Juans / Sacramentos	Flash flood, burn-scar debris flow	WPC Slight; leftover from Wed Moderate	Diurnal terrain cells
Western / north-central OH	Trees, wires, barn and roof damage	LSRs overnight; warnings expired	Just-hit
Emery / Carbon UT; Camden MO	Quarter to half-dollar hail	LSRs overnight	Just-hit / same offices own today’s risk
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No named cyclone	NHC: no tropical cyclones	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Isolated severe hail on the Wasatch Front is a roof and auto-glass survey ticket if cells verify over Salt Lake, Provo, or southeast Idaho. Isolated High Plains gusts are tree, siding, and gutter work in a thin corridor. The organized ticket today is water from the Wyoming Front Range across South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa tonight. Flash flooding on leftover Arizona–New Mexico terrain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside a structure that already took rain Wednesday. Ohio trees-on-wires from last night are a separate staffing problem from this afternoon’s West.

For teams near the Intermountain Marginal: stage before mid-afternoon local. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside. Turn around, don’t drown on High Plains and Southwest washes.

What this is not

This is not a Slight Risk severe day, not a live convective watch, and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, or central Pacific as of this morning. Edouard is already in the archive. The work, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Utah or Idaho county, a gust cluster on the High Plains, and heavier rain over South Dakota terrain tonight.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 (Friday) holds Marginal Risk across parts of the northern Intermountain West, the central Great Plains into the southern middle Missouri Valley, and the Carolina–Georgia Piedmont. WPC’s Day 1 water corridor over the Dakotas is the bridge into that Plains Marginal. The next Storm Tracker update should re-check the 1630 UTC Day 1 outlook and any new watches rather than assuming this morning’s Marginal stays the last word.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 17, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Gleason/Mead); current convective watches (none valid; last issued Watch 669); SPC preliminary storm reports for 20260916 1200 UTC–20260917 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and discussion (Kleebauer); National Weather Service warning text including Cleveland OH, Salt Lake City, Springfield MO, and Phoenix/Flagstaff/Tucson overnight flood products now expired; National Hurricane Center 800 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, September 17, 2026.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Wednesday, September 16 afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 17, 2026

Storm Updates: Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk, Ohio Valley–Mid-Atlantic Flood Pulse — Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Saturday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Saturday, September 12, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse that ran eastern South Dakota into Minnesota has expired. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666 is down. No convective watches are valid as of mid-morning UTC. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook has upgraded the afternoon and evening corridor to a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks. The Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook holds a Slight Risk for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Restoration exposure today is large hail and damaging wind on the Plains, plus interior water where Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic cells train. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What expired overnight vs what is live this morning

Watch 666 covered southwestern into north-central Minnesota and eastern South Dakota from 6:40 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT Friday. Primary language was scattered large hail, isolated very large hail to two inches, damaging gusts to 70 mph, and a tornado or two if a supercell held together early in the watch. That watch is expired. SPC current watches page as of 12:03 UTC Saturday: no watches valid. Last issued watch remains 666.

What is live this morning is the outlook, not a watch. The 0748 AM CDT Saturday Day 1 convective outlook is valid 1300 UTC Saturday through 1200 UTC Sunday. Headline: there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Plains. Summary language: isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe or damaging winds may occur across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and evening. A separate Marginal Risk corridor remains over the upper Ohio Valley for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon.

WPC’s current Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook, issued 339 AM EDT Saturday and valid 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday, keeps a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash-flood guidance for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Precipitable water of 2.0 to 2.25 inches is forecast to stream north along the I-95 corridor from Richmond and Washington toward Baltimore and Philadelphia by Saturday evening, then into the New York metro and lower Long Island late Saturday night. That late-night northern end of the slight risk is expected to linger into Sunday (Day 2).

Hotspot 1 — Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into the Ozarks

This is today’s severe ticket. Elevated storms persisted overnight into early morning across southern Nebraska into eastern Kansas and western Missouri on a modest low-level jet. SPC expects that activity to weaken through the remainder of the morning, with some guidance still showing additional development along outflow across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A fairly strong cold front is draped from eastern Colorado into Kansas and northwest Missouri. That boundary is the afternoon focus.

Along and south of the front, a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000–3500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon from the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear of about 30–40 kt is enough for organized updrafts. Isolated robust development along the front is favored around 21–23Z once convective temperatures are reached. Sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large hail, including isolated two-inch-plus stones. Higher-based convection from the eastern Panhandles into southwest and south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma favors scattered severe downdrafts. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. Clustering later this afternoon and evening remains uncertain, but isolated damaging wind may persist into much of Oklahoma and the Ozarks if upstream storms in Kansas and western Missouri stay organized.

Cities and counties to watch: Wichita, Hutchinson, Emporia, Liberal, and Derby in the Slight Risk core; Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Kansas City sit in the surrounding Marginal Risk. Restoration read: hail first in the Slight Risk, then wind. Stage tarps and roof kits before mid-afternoon local. If a cell trains on the same ZIP, treat it as a water job by morning.

Hotspot 2 — Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor

This is today’s flood ticket, not the hail ticket. SPC keeps only a Marginal Risk of isolated damaging wind across parts of the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon in a narrow corridor of filtered heating between denser clouds over Ohio and a stationary boundary to the east. Mid-level lapse rates stay poor. The bigger operational signal is WPC. HREF signals include moderate-to-high chances of three- and six-hour flash-flood-guidance exceedance in the upper Ohio Valley, and a 20–40 percent chance of three-hour QPF over two inches from the Richmond area late Saturday afternoon, then from northeast Maryland into the Delaware Valley and southern New Jersey Saturday night. The Slight Risk was extended north through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and into the New York metro and lower Long Island, with that northern end weighted late Saturday night into Sunday.

Cities and counties to watch: Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, the upper Ohio Valley; Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, northern New Jersey, New York City, and lower Long Island on the late-day and overnight rain axis. Restoration read: urban street flooding, low crossings, and wet drywall where cells train. The 24–48 hour mold clock starts when water is inside, not when the outlook expires.

Hotspot 3 — Just-hit Upper Midwest and leftover Arizona water

Friday evening’s Slight Risk over far eastern South Dakota into Minnesota verified locally. Preliminary Storm Prediction Center local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Friday to 1159 UTC Saturday window include a tornado touchdown reported seven miles northeast of Artichoke in Stevens County, Minnesota, around 0051 UTC, plus downed power poles eight miles south of Alberta on County Highway 9. Golf-ball hail (1.75 inches) was reported east and south of Artichoke and south of Alberta. Half-dollar hail fell near Dumont, Herman, Norcross, and Toronto, South Dakota. Wind damage and trees on lines were reported around Chokio, Embarrass and Britt in St. Louis County, Whipholt and Longville in Cass County, and Blue Grass in Wadena County, with one report noting possible tornado damage and large trees blocking County Road 23.

Separate Friday hail and wind clusters hit Tarrant County, Texas (Arlington and Mansfield, golf-ball hail and trees and poles down), Bexar County, Texas after 0310 UTC (golf-ball hail near Converse), and a long tree-down corridor through South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Arizona flash-flood warnings fired Friday evening over Gila, Coconino, Navajo, Cochise, and Graham Counties, including fire-scar drainages. Those Arizona warnings were evening products; treat them as just-hit water, not today’s new Slight Risk.

Just hit

Minnesota and eastern South Dakota are yesterday’s tickets: hail, trees, poles, and at least one reported tornado touchdown that still needs a damage survey, not a new watch. North Texas and San Antonio-area hail are Friday afternoon and overnight work already on the books. The Carolinas and southern Virginia tree-down scatter is the same. Today’s new work, if it verifies, is the Kansas–Oklahoma hail and wind corridor plus localized flash flooding from the Ohio Valley onto the Mid-Atlantic I-95 axis tonight.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
Southern KS / northern OK / Panhandles / Ozarks	Large to very large hail, damaging wind, isolated 75+ mph gusts	SPC Slight (core) + Marginal surround	Outlook live; no watch yet
Upper Ohio Valley	Isolated damaging wind; heavy rain / flash flood	SPC Marginal + WPC Slight ERO	Afternoon increase
Mid-Atlantic I-95 (RIC–DC–BAL–PHL–NYC)	Training heavy rain, urban flash flood	WPC Slight ERO	Late afternoon through Saturday night
Eastern SD / west-central and northern MN	Hail, trees, poles, reported tornado	Watch 666 expired 10 p.m. CDT Fri	Aftermath / just-hit
North Texas / San Antonio metro	Friday hail and wind	Local LSRs	Aftermath
Southeast AZ fire scars / washes	Flash flood from Friday cells	Expired FFWs	Aftermath
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	NHC: formation not expected next 7 days in Atlantic	Quiet on the mainland coast

What this means for restoration teams

Two-inch hail is roof and auto glass work in the Slight Risk counties. Gusts of 60–75 mph are siding, gutter, and tree-on-structure work. A reported tornado near Artichoke, Minnesota, is a narrow swath — staff it as a local damage survey, not a regional event. Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic heavy rain is wet drywall and a same-night extraction clock if water is inside. Do not send the same crew to Wichita hail and Pittsburgh flooding without checking which county actually has a warning now.

For teams in or near the Kansas–Oklahoma Slight Risk: stage before mid-afternoon local, not after the first warning. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. National Hurricane Center Atlantic outlook at 800 AM EDT Saturday: tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Norbert is well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is not a U.S. land threat. The work today, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Kansas or Oklahoma county, a wind-thrown tree in the upper Ohio Valley, a flooded underpass where Mid-Atlantic cells train. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

SPC Day 2 is a Marginal Risk Sunday afternoon and evening from western New England through the upper Ohio Valley for small to marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. Day 3 is also Marginal. Fire-weather outlooks are Elevated today and Sunday. The next Day 1 convective outlook is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker update rather than assuming this morning’s Slight Risk is the last line of the weekend.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 12, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (issued 0748 AM CDT); SPC current watches page (no watches valid; most recently issued Watch 666); SPC preliminary local storm reports for 20260911 1200 UTC–20260912 1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 339 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 12, 2026; National Weather Service watch/warning text feed.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watch, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Friday, September 11 storm updates (afternoon).

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 12, 2026

Storm Updates: Upper Midwest Slight Risk, Texas Panhandle Hail and Wind Overnight — Friday, September 11, 2026 (Morning)

This is a live Friday morning snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the early hours of Friday, September 11, 2026. Overnight into this morning the organized severe pulse was limited and mostly High Plains–oriented. No convective watches are currently valid. The Storm Prediction Center has elevated a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the Upper Midwest later today, with a broader Marginal Risk covering the central Plains into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in far southern Arizona and northern Minnesota, with localized flash-flood potential still lingering from overnight activity in the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

These remain county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms, not a mainland hurricane landfall. Tropical Storm Norbert is active in the Eastern Pacific well offshore and poses no threat to U.S. land. Restoration exposure today centers on residual wind and hail damage from the Texas Panhandle overnight, lingering water in West Virginia and Ohio counties, and the new Slight Risk corridor from far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this morning

No severe thunderstorm or tornado watches are in effect as of the 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook. The most recent watch was Watch 665 from Wednesday evening. Overnight Local Storm Reports show a concentrated hail and wind event across the Texas Panhandle and nearby High Plains counties, with measured gusts to 87 mph near Colby, Kansas, and hail up to 2.25 inches near Lake Tanglewood in Randall County, Texas. Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings were issued overnight for portions of eastern Arkansas, north-central West Virginia, southeastern Ohio, and the Virginia Eastern Shore; most of those products have expired or are in their final hours this morning.

SPC’s 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook highlights a Slight Risk across parts of the Upper Midwest—primarily far northeast South Dakota into western and northern Minnesota—for large hail (isolated 2+ inches possible), damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. A broader Marginal Risk extends south into the central Plains and eastward across the Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley, Carolinas, and Virginia for more disorganized pulse-type storms capable of occasional damaging gusts.

Hotspot 1 — Upper Midwest Slight Risk (northeast SD into western/northern MN)

This is the primary organized severe corridor for today. A mid-level shortwave trough ejecting across the northern Plains will support a surface low and cold front. Moderate destabilization and 35–45 kt deep-layer shear favor initial supercells capable of large hail, with a transition to clusters and bowing segments producing damaging winds this evening. A low-end tornado threat exists if any cells remain discrete into the early evening when low-level shear increases. Confidence is higher in the far northeast SD–western MN axis than farther south into the central Plains, where initiation remains more conditional.

Cities and counties to watch: Aberdeen and Watertown areas in South Dakota; St. Cloud, Willmar, Duluth, Superior, Hibbing, and the Minnesota Arrowhead. Restoration read: stage for hail and wind. Large hail can produce concentrated roof and vehicle damage; clustering storms raise the tree-and-wire risk after dark. Photograph in remaining daylight only if safe.

Hotspot 2 — Texas Panhandle and High Plains overnight hits

Thursday evening into early Friday produced the most significant Local Storm Reports of the overnight window. Hail reports included 2.25-inch stones near Lake Tanglewood (Randall County, TX), 2.00-inch at Timbercreek Canyon, and multiple 1.00–1.75-inch reports around Pantex and Lake Tanglewood. Wind reports included an 87 mph gust 1 SE of Colby (Thomas County, KS), 67 mph near Pantex, 65 mph near Plainview (Hale County, TX) with snapped power poles and overturned vehicles, and additional 60–62 mph gusts across the Texas South Plains. Construction trailers and fences were damaged in the Plainview area.

Restoration read: this is already a just-hit desk. Hail-damaged roofs and vehicles in Randall, Carson, and Hale counties, plus wind-driven tree and pole work around Colby and Plainview, will generate same-day claims. Coordinate with local emergency management for access if power poles are down.

Hotspot 3 — Residual flood pulse (Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, eastern Arkansas)

WPC’s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook carries a Slight Risk for far southern Arizona (Santa Cruz County area) and northern Minnesota. Overnight, Flash Flood Warnings were active across Randolph County, Arkansas; multiple north-central West Virginia counties (Braxton, Gilmer, Upshur, Lewis, Roane, Calhoun, Ritchie, Wirt, Jackson, Wood); southeastern Ohio (Gallia, Jackson, Meigs, Vinton); and southern Accomack County, Virginia. Several of those products noted observed flooding, including impassable sections of US 33 near Glenville, West Virginia, and residual high water into Friday morning.

Restoration read: water extraction and drying are already on the books in the warned West Virginia and Ohio counties. Northern Minnesota joins the slight-risk language later today as the same system that supports the severe threat also produces 1–2 inch (locally 3 inch) rainfall amounts with rates approaching 1.5 inches per hour. Southern Arizona remains a monsoon-style flash-flood pocket.

Just hit

Wednesday’s Ohio–Pennsylvania–western New York Slight Risk and Watch 665 produced residual tree and wind damage that carried into Thursday. Thursday’s Marginal Risk corridor from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic generated the Texas Panhandle hail/wind event detailed above and scattered overnight flood warnings. Iowa river flooding from earlier in the week continues to recede in places. No new U.S. mainland tropical cyclone is present; Tropical Storm Norbert remains well out in the Eastern Pacific.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / NWS / WPC level	Status this morning
NE SD / western & northern MN	Large hail (2+” possible), damaging wind, couple tornadoes	SPC Slight	Late afternoon–tonight
TX Panhandle / High Plains	Hail to 2.25″, 60–87 mph gusts, pole/vehicle damage	Overnight LSRs	Just-hit / recovery
Central WV / SE OH / E AR	Flash flooding, residual high water	Expired/expiring FFWs + Flood Warnings	Aftermath / still draining
Far southern AZ	Flash flood rates	WPC Slight	Afternoon cells
Mid-South / TN Valley / Carolinas / VA	Occasional damaging gusts, pulse storms	SPC Marginal	Afternoon–evening
Atlantic / Gulf vs. U.S. mainland	No landfalling tropical cyclone	Quiet on the mainland coast	Quiet

What this means for restoration teams

Overnight hail and wind in the Texas Panhandle is already producing roof, vehicle, and pole claims. Residual flash flooding in West Virginia and southeastern Ohio is extraction-and-dry work with a 24–48 hour mold clock on any wet drywall. Today’s new Slight Risk in the Upper Midwest is a classic late-afternoon to evening supercell-to-cluster transition: large hail first, then damaging wind as storms grow upscale. Stage tarps, generators, and tree crews for the Minnesota corridor before the evening transition. Property owners should photograph damage in daylight if it is safe, call the carrier, and start extraction the same night if water is inside.

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. The work today, if it verifies, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Minnesota or South Dakota county, residual high water in a West Virginia hollow, or a wind-damaged construction site in the Texas South Plains. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

Looking ahead

Saturday the convective outlook drops to Marginal. Critical fire-weather conditions are also noted by SPC for today over parts of the West. Watch the next Storm Tracker update rather than assuming the Upper Midwest Slight Risk is the last line of the week.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1226Z Friday, September 11, 2026; SPC Local Storm Reports for the 10 September period; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook updated 0832Z; National Weather Service warning text for Amarillo, Lubbock, Charleston WV, Little Rock, Wakefield, and neighboring offices. No active convective watches as of 1205Z.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Thursday afternoon Storm Updates.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

September 11, 2026

Storm Updates: Slight Risk in the Dakotas, Gulf Coast Wind Cells, Florida Flood Pulses — Monday, September 7, 2026

This is a live Labor Day Monday snapshot of local storm-type events across the United States as of the afternoon of Monday, September 7, 2026. These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms — hail, damaging wind, and short-fuse heavy rain — not a landfalling tropical cyclone.

There is no active Atlantic tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. mainland. The 2026 season has produced named tropical storms only; no hurricane has formed yet. The pulse today is convective: a Slight Risk of severe storms in the Dakotas, damaging-wind cells on the central Gulf Coast, and slow-moving heavy rain across Florida into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

National Weather Service CONUS radar mosaic showing current precipitation across the United States — NWS CONUS radar mosaic. Public domain.

These are the events that generate the restoration work crews actually see: wind-driven roof and siding failures, hail-pocked windows and vehicles, downed trees on service lines, and interior flooding from 2–3 inches in an hour on poorly drained streets. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

What is live this afternoon

The Storm Prediction Center 2000 UTC Day 1 outlook holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska. The headline threat is large hail. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. Isolated damaging wind is possible across a broader Marginal Risk from the northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts remain possible over the central Gulf Coast states.

No convective watches are in effect as of this writing. Warnings are local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements, plus flood advisories where storms stall.

Hotspot 1 — Northern Plains: North Dakota, South Dakota, eastern Montana

A shortwave coming off the northern Rockies is the organizer. SPC expects widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail over northwest into central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota this afternoon into evening. Forecast soundings east of a sharpening dryline in central ND support supercell modes. Large hail is the primary restoration exposure. Isolated tornado risk is highest in southeast South Dakota.

Official Local Storm Reports already on the board today include 62 mph near Midland, South Dakota; 73 mph west-southwest of Fort Pierre; 59 mph near Forestgrove, Montana; and 63 mph near Winnett, Montana. Overnight and early-morning reports from eastern Montana included estimated 2-inch hail near Shepherd in Yellowstone County, with broken windows and siding damage from wind-driven hail.

Recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings from NWS Glasgow have covered Garfield, McCone, Prairie, and Petroleum counties in northeastern Montana for radar-indicated 60 mph gusts. Weather Prediction Center Day 1 also carries a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for a portion of northwestern Montana.

Restoration read: hail and wind first. Check roofs, skylights, west- and south-facing windows, and vehicle lots. Trees and service drops follow the 60-plus mph cores.

Hotspot 2 — Central Gulf Coast: Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, far southeast Texas

Hot, very moist air with MLCAPE in the 2500–3500 J/kg range is supporting scattered afternoon and evening storms. Shear is weak, so this is not a supercell outbreak. The threat is intense downdrafts and slow storm motion. WPC added a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from far southeastern Texas into southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Rainfall rates of 2–3 inches in an hour are possible where cells stall near the Texas–Louisiana border.

Active and recent Severe Thunderstorm Warnings this afternoon have included St. Helena, Livingston, Tangipahoa, and West/East Feliciana parishes in southeast Louisiana (near Hammond, Natalbany, Zachary, Slaughter) and south-central Alabama into northwest Florida (Escambia, Santa Rosa, Conecuh — Brewton, Flomaton, Evergreen, Pollard). Hazard language has been 60 mph gusts and penny-size hail.

Yesterday’s LSRs already showed the damage type: trees and power lines down near Philadelphia and Greenville, Mississippi, including a microburst with building damage in the Greenville area.

Restoration read: wind and water, not a hurricane surge. Urban flooding and tree-on-roof jobs in the same zip codes as the warning polygons.

Hotspot 3 — Florida and the coastal Southeast

Southeast Florida has been firing strong storms through Labor Day afternoon. NWS and local offices have carried a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for southeastern Martin County with radar-indicated 60 mph gusts and penny hail, plus a Flood Advisory in east-central Palm Beach County after 2–3 inches of rain. Steering is weak; cells can dump on the same neighborhoods twice.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia and southern South Carolina sits under an above-average precipitable-water axis. NWS Jacksonville has been issuing Special Weather Statements for Baker, Columbia, Alachua, Suwannee, and adjacent Georgia counties with 40 mph gusts. WPC notes high neighborhood probabilities for 2- and 3-inch rainfall totals along that coastal moisture axis.

Restoration read: interior water and urban flooding first, then wind to trees and fascia. Metro Broward/Miami-Dade and the I-10 / I-75 corridors in north Florida are the places to watch hour by hour.

Pulse table

Region	Main threats	SPC / WPC level	Status this afternoon
Central ND / SE SD / NE NE	Large hail, damaging wind, isolated tornado	Slight	Developing afternoon–evening
Eastern MT / northern Plains	Damaging wind, hail	Marginal + local SVR warnings	Active
Gulf Coast LA–AL–FL Panhandle	Damaging wind, flash flood pulses	Marginal + local SVR warnings	Active
SE / NE Florida + coastal GA/SC	Heavy rain, gusty wind, urban flooding	Local severe / flood advisories	Active
Atlantic tropics vs. U.S. coast	None	No tropical cyclone	Quiet

What this is not

This is not a regional derecho and not a hurricane landfall. No watches are up. The work, if it comes, will be scattered: a hail swath through a Dakota county, a microburst block in Louisiana or Alabama, a flooded intersection in Palm Beach or Jacksonville. That is the local-storm pattern restoration desks should staff for tonight.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 0259 PM CDT Monday, September 7, 2026; SPC today’s storm reports; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook; National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (no tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 7 days); and active NWS warning text from Glasgow MT, New Orleans LA, Mobile AL, Jacksonville FL, and West Palm Beach-area offices.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and LSRs, and local radar before you treat any polygon as a job ticket. This desk will update when the evening reports close.

September 7, 2026