Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic Tornadoes & SW Flood — Oct 11

Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias & Rachel · Severe: Slight · Flood: Moderate

What Changed

• SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC / 1:50 AM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 12Z today to 12Z Monday) holds a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. Isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible. Tornado Watch 680 is now in effect until 5:00 PM EDT for central and southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina, including Raleigh, Durham, Fayetteville, and surrounding counties. Active Tornado Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued this morning.
• Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has advanced to near 37.5N 84.0W as of WPC Advisory 20 at 11:00 AM EDT Sunday, about 180 miles northeast of Nashville, Tennessee, moving east-northeast at 22 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1010 mb. The low is expected to dissipate over West Virginia this evening. Flash flood threat is decreasing but some risk continues today across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches possible.
• Remnants of Rachel are near 35.8N 114.6W as of NHC final Advisory 58 at 8:00 AM MST, about 255 miles north-northeast of San Diego, California, moving north-northeast at 29 mph with 35 mph winds. This is the last NHC advisory. Heavy rains and gusty winds continue over portions of the southwestern United States. All Mexican coastal warnings have been discontinued. No U.S. coastal tropical watches or warnings remain in effect.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0816 UTC) maintains a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Southwest (southern California into southern Nevada including the Las Vegas region, far northwest Arizona, and far southwest Utah) associated with Rachel moisture and favorable jet dynamics. A small Slight Risk remains for upslope areas of the Blue Ridge in northwest Virginia, far eastern West Virginia, and central Maryland. Appalachians Moderate Risk from earlier has eased as Isaias accelerates northeast.
• No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. SPC local storm reports for the current 1200 UTC window show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received yet as of early afternoon. Multiple Flood Warnings, Flash Flood Warnings, Wind Advisories, and High Wind Warnings are active across the Mid-Atlantic, Appalachians, and Southwest.

Live Status

As of early Sunday afternoon, October 11, 2026 (around 11:00 a.m. EDT / 8:00 a.m. PDT), the organized severe threat has focused on the Mid-Atlantic under the SPC Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 680. Scattered thunderstorms are developing in the Carolina Piedmont and moving northeast into eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia. Forecast soundings support supercells with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200-225 m²/s² range, favoring a tornado threat that should persist into the evening as storms approach the coast. Dewpoints in the 70s F and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg provide the instability.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues accelerating northeast and is expected to dissipate this evening. Residual heavy rainfall supports localized flash and urban flooding across the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, with river rises still possible in western North Carolina. On the West Coast, Rachel remnants are driving widespread heavy precipitation under the WPC Moderate Risk, with high probabilities for 1-3+ inch amounts and elevated flash flood potential including burn scars and urban areas around Las Vegas and the lower Colorado River valley. Strong south winds and High Wind Warnings are active in portions of Utah, Arizona, and California.

Hotspots

Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina and Virginia Piedmont and Coastal Plain): Primary severe hotspot. SPC Slight Risk covers about 35,500 square miles and 5.7 million people, including Raleigh, Durham, Richmond, Fayetteville, and Cary. Tornado Watch 680 runs until 5 PM EDT. Isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts are the main threats this afternoon into evening. Residual flash flood risk under WPC Marginal to Slight residual.

Great Basin and Southwest (southern California, southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, southwest Utah): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Remnants of Rachel combined with jet dynamics produce PW anomalies 2-4+ standard deviations above normal. High neighborhood probabilities for 3+ inch amounts in the Moderate area. Flash flooding, urban runoff, and high winds/gusts are live. Las Vegas corridor is inside the Moderate.

Blue Ridge and Central Appalachians residual: Upslope heavy rain continues with a small WPC Slight Risk for 2-3+ inch amounts in northwest Virginia, far eastern West Virginia, and central Maryland. Flash flooding and landslides remain possible, though the broader threat is decreasing as Isaias moves away. Wind Advisories persist in elevated terrain.

Just hit

SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Sunday to 1159 UTC Monday window show no tornado, hail, or wind reports received as of this writing. Active Tornado Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings this morning in central North Carolina (including Randolph, Chatham, Moore, Montgomery counties) indicate the severe window is verifying in real time. Multiple Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings remain in effect across western North Carolina, southwestern Pennsylvania, and portions of the Southwest associated with residual Isaias rainfall and Rachel moisture. Power outages from earlier Isaias impacts continue in the hundreds of thousands across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Pulse table

Rising queries

• huracán isaias
• power outage near me
• Isaias remnants flood Mid-Atlantic
• Rachel flash flood Southwest
• Tornado Watch North Carolina

Restoration read

Coastal wind and surge work from the Friday night Destin landfall remains closed. Immediate tickets are inland freshwater extraction, tree and road clearance under residual Isaias rain bands, and the live Mid-Atlantic severe window. Treat Tornado Watch 680 and active warnings as narrow local survey priorities in the Carolinas and Virginia. On the West Coast, stage for flash flooding under the Rachel Moderate Risk; distinguish burn-scar and urban runoff in the Las Vegas corridor from residual Appalachian upslope work. Distinguish residual Tennessee Valley freshwater from new Mid-Atlantic severe and the separate Southwest pulse. Power outage restoration continues across the Southeast.

What this is not

This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. The organized hazards are the SPC Slight Risk and Tornado Watch in North Carolina and Virginia, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risk in the Great Basin and Southwest, residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias, and high winds associated with Rachel moisture in the Southwest. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warning has been issued for U.S. land this run.

Looking ahead

Isaias remnants are expected to dissipate over West Virginia this evening. SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast for Monday. Rachel remnants will continue to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the Southwest today before dissipating. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Mid-Atlantic severe window and any expansion or contraction of the Southwest flood products.

Sources and how to verify

Primary sources, dated Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC, Slight Risk parts of North Carolina and Virginia); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Great Basin and Southwest, updated 0816 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 20 (11:00 AM EDT); National Hurricane Center Remnants of Rachel Advisory 58 (8:00 AM MST, final). Morning desk: Storm Updates: Appalachians Flood & Rachel — Oct 11 Morning.

Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias and Rachel products.

Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026