Tropical: Post-Tropical Isaias & Rachel · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Moderate
What Changed
- Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias advanced to near 35.0N 86.7W as of WPC Advisory 18 at 10:00 PM CDT Saturday, October 10, 2026, about 75 miles south of Nashville, Tennessee, moving northeast at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and minimum pressure 1009 mb. Continued flood risk across the Southeast and Southern Appalachians.
- Tornado Watch 679 for eastern Georgia and southern/eastern South Carolina expired at 8:00 PM EDT after verifying with multiple confirmed tornadoes. SPC Day 1 Outlook (0100 UTC October 11) now carries a Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat across parts of the Carolinas this evening and few severe wind gusts in the Desert Southwest.
- Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is near 30.0N 116.5W as of NHC Advisory 56 at 8:00 PM PDT, about 40 miles west of Punta Baja, Mexico, and 190 miles south of San Diego, moving north-northeast at 36 mph with 60 mph winds and 987 mb. Expected to move onshore over northern Baja tonight and dissipate early Sunday. Tropical Storm Watch remains for the Southern California coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 2331 UTC) maintains Moderate Risk across the Southern Appalachians and portions of Southern California. Additional 2–5 inches, locally up to 10 inches, possible in upslope regions.
- No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warnings for U.S. land. Active Flash Flood Warnings in portions of the Carolinas; Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona associated with Rachel moisture.
Live Status
As of late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, October 11, 2026 (around 8:00 p.m. PDT / 11:00 p.m. EDT), Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues northeast across Tennessee toward the central Appalachians while dissipating. Additional rainfall of 2 to 5 inches with localized maxima of 10 inches remains possible across the Southern Appalachians from the western Carolinas into western Virginia. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible, with considerable impacts including landslides across the southern Appalachians. A couple of tornadoes remain possible tonight across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is accelerating north-northeast toward northern Baja California and is forecast to move onshore tonight before dissipating early Sunday over the southwestern United States. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Southern California coast beginning tonight or early Sunday. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, is expected across portions of the Southwest, supporting flash and urban flooding. Strong gusty winds are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest, especially higher terrain.
Hotspots
Southern Appalachians (northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina, western Virginia): Primary flood hotspot under the WPC Moderate Risk. Strong upslope flow continues to support heavy totals. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are possible. High Wind Warnings remain in elevated terrain.
Carolinas: SPC Marginal Risk for isolated tornado threat this evening into overnight with rotating cells in the warm sector. Flash Flood Warnings active in portions of western North Carolina and South Carolina.
Southern California coast and Desert Southwest: Tropical Storm Watch on the San Diego County coastal areas. Moisture from Rachel drives the WPC Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Southern California. Marginal severe wind gust risk in the Desert Southwest. Coastal Flood Warning and Flood Watch in effect. Active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona.
Tennessee Valley residual: Center of the post-tropical system is about 75 miles south of Nashville. Residual heavy rain and isolated flash flooding continue along the track.
Pulse table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this morning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Appalachians (NE GA / Upstate SC / W NC / W VA) | Flash flood, landslides, 2–10 in upslope | WPC Moderate excessive rainfall | Live, ongoing into Sunday |
| Carolinas | Isolated tornado, flash flood | SPC Marginal; active Flash Flood Warnings | Evening into overnight |
| Southern California coast / Desert Southwest | Heavy rain, flash flood, TS winds possible, coastal flood | WPC Moderate; TS Watch (San Diego County); Coastal Flood Warning / Flood Watch | Increasing tonight into Sunday |
| Tennessee Valley residual | Residual heavy rain, isolated flood | Post-tropical 25 mph near Nashville | Ongoing, dissipating |
| Rest of CONUS severe board | No other organized severe | Marginal only in SW and Carolinas; no watches | Quiet elsewhere |
Rising queries
- huracán isaias
- isaias remnants flood Appalachians
- tropical storm Rachel San Diego
- southern Appalachians flooding
- Rachel flash flood Southwest
What this means for restoration teams
The coastal wind and surge ticket from Friday night landfall near Destin is closed. Immediate work remains inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance under residual rain bands and the Southern Appalachians Moderate Risk. Treat any remaining tornado reports in the Carolinas Marginal Risk as narrow local surveys. On the West Coast, stage for potential flash flooding under the Rachel moisture and Tropical Storm Watch; do not treat San Diego County as a full hurricane landfall. Distinguish residual Tennessee Valley freshwater tickets from new Appalachian upslope work and from the separate Southwest pulse.
What this is not
This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. Rachel is a tropical-storm watch threat for extreme Southern California, not a major hurricane landfall. The organized hazards are the SPC Marginal risks in the Carolinas and Desert Southwest, the WPC Moderate excessive-rainfall risks in the Southern Appalachians and Southern California, and residual inland flooding from the post-tropical remnants of Isaias and Rachel.
Looking ahead
Isaias remnants are expected to continue northeast and dissipate on Sunday. SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of Virginia and North Carolina for Sunday. Rachel is forecast to move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight and weaken rapidly over the Southwest on Sunday. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Appalachian rainfall totals and any expansion of the California products.
Sources and how to verify
Primary sources, dated late Saturday, October 10 / early Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 11, Marginal Risk parts of Carolinas and Desert Southwest); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Moderate Risk Southern Appalachians and Southern California, updated 2331 UTC); WPC Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory 18 (10:00 PM CDT); National Hurricane Center Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory 56 (8:00 PM PDT). Prior desk: Saturday afternoon GA/SC Tornadoes & Rachel.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual Isaias and Rachel products.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.
Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026
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