Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight
What Changed
- SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
- WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
- Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
- No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
- Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.
Live Status
As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest under leftover shear and moisture.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has dissipated. Its surface low elongated into a trough over West Virginia and was absorbed. Residual rainfall of 1 to 3 inches remains possible overnight across portions of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic under a WPC Marginal Risk, but the heavy rain threat is decreasing. Earlier overnight totals of several inches produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina; residual Flood Warnings persist in some elevated areas.
In the Southwest and Great Basin, residual moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel supports a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The highest residual risk is across western Arizona, with a broader Slight covering northwest Arizona into portions of the Great Basin. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar in southern Utah, where thunderstorms have produced heavy rain and observed flash flooding with considerable damage threat. Vulnerable locations include burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and urban areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada.
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC.
Pulse Table
| Region | Main threats | SPC / NWS / WPC level | Status this evening |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VA | Isolated residual tornado, residual flood | SPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired) | Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening |
| Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT) | Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty winds | WPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UT | Residual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active |
| Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual | Upslope residual rain, flash flood, landslides | WPC Marginal excessive rainfall | Decreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground |
| Tennessee Valley / Isaias residual | Dissipated | Post-tropical dissipated | Surface low absorbed; residual decreasing |
Rising Queries
Trends unreachable this run.
Storm Hubs
Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk.
Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.
Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.
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