Tag: Nevada

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11

    Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
    • Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
    • Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

    Live Status

    As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest under leftover shear and moisture.

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has dissipated. Its surface low elongated into a trough over West Virginia and was absorbed. Residual rainfall of 1 to 3 inches remains possible overnight across portions of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic under a WPC Marginal Risk, but the heavy rain threat is decreasing. Earlier overnight totals of several inches produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina; residual Flood Warnings persist in some elevated areas.

    In the Southwest and Great Basin, residual moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel supports a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The highest residual risk is across western Arizona, with a broader Slight covering northwest Arizona into portions of the Great Basin. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar in southern Utah, where thunderstorms have produced heavy rain and observed flash flooding with considerable damage threat. Vulnerable locations include burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and urban areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada.

    No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC.

    Hotspots

    Southwest / Great Basin residual flood: Primary live residual under WPC Slight Risk from Rachel remnants. Active Flash Flood Warnings in southern Utah (Zion National Park, Forsyth burn scar) with observed flooding and considerable damage threat. Highest residual risk western Arizona into Great Basin. Burn scars, canyons, and urban areas remain vulnerable.

    Mid-Atlantic residual severe and flood: Organized window closed after Tornado Watch 681 expired. Multiple preliminary tornadoes in central and eastern North Carolina under survey (Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville, Raleigh area). Residual Marginal Risk near the coast this evening. WPC Marginal residual rain possible overnight.

    Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residual: Decreasing flood risk as Isaias dissipated. Significant overnight rainfall already produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina. Residual Marginal Risk overnight.

    Just Hit

    Sunday afternoon tornadoes across central and eastern North Carolina, including observed near Atkinson (Pender County), preliminary or confirmed near Candor (Montgomery — building destroyed), Clarendon (Columbus — structures destroyed), Fayetteville area (Cumberland), Jordan Lake (Chatham), and near Raleigh/Clayton. NWS surveys ongoing. Residual Flash Flood Warnings active in southern Utah from Rachel moisture. Power outages from earlier Isaias impacts continue, with Florida and Alabama still seeing the largest numbers.

    Pulse Table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this evening
    Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VAIsolated residual tornado, residual floodSPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
    Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty windsWPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UTResidual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
    Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residualUpslope residual rain, flash flood, landslidesWPC Marginal excessive rainfallDecreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
    Tennessee Valley / Isaias residualDissipatedPost-tropical dissipatedSurface low absorbed; residual decreasing

    Rising Queries

    Rising queries tied to today’s residual: “power outage near me” (driven by residual Isaias impacts in the Southeast), “tornado near me” / North Carolina tornado reports, residual flood and flash flood queries for the Southwest and Utah burn scars. Trends data partial this run.

    Restoration Read

    Coastal wind and surge work from the Friday night Destin landfall remains closed. Immediate residual tickets are inland freshwater extraction and tree/road clearance from Isaias rain in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, plus survey of the afternoon North Carolina tornadoes. On the West Coast, residual flash flooding under the Rachel Slight Risk, especially burn scars and canyons in southern Utah and western Arizona. Distinguish residual Appalachian work from Southwest residual. Power outage restoration continues across the Southeast.

    What This Is Not

    This is not an active hurricane or tropical-storm warning on the Gulf or Atlantic coast. All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued. It is not a plains or Midwest severe outbreak. The organized hazards were the earlier SPC Slight Risk and now-expired Tornado Watch 681 in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia (with multiple tornado reports), and the WPC Slight (Moderate dropped) excessive-rainfall risk in the Great Basin and Southwest from Rachel remnants. No new NHC hurricane or storm-surge warning has been issued for U.S. land this run.

    Looking Ahead

    Isaias remnants are fully dissipated. SPC Day 2 outlook shows no severe thunderstorm areas forecast for Monday. Rachel remnants will continue residual heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the Southwest before further dissipation. Watch the next Storm Tracker update for verification of the Mid-Atlantic tornado reports and any further contraction of the Southwest flood products.

    Sources and How to Verify

    Primary sources, dated Sunday, October 11, 2026: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC October 12, Marginal Risk Mid-Atlantic and Desert Southwest) and Current Watches (no watches currently valid; most recently #681); Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion (Slight Risk Great Basin and Southwest, updated 0056 UTC); NHC final products for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias and Remnants of Rachel. Morning desk: Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

    Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link this desk and the morning desk.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning

    Storm Updates: Quiet Pulse — Oct 11 Morning

    Tropical: None (Isaias & Rachel dissipated) · Severe: Marginal · Flood: Slight

    What Changed

    • SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC / 7:47 PM CDT Sunday, October 11, 2026, valid 120100Z–121200Z) holds only a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic (isolated tornado threat near the coast for a few more hours) and Desert Southwest (isolated severe gusts). No Slight or higher risk remains. Current watches page lists no convective watches valid; Tornado Watch 681 expired earlier.
    • WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 0056 UTC Monday, October 12 / 8:56 PM EDT Sunday, October 11, 2026) maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Great Basin and Southwest from residual Rachel moisture. Moderate Risk dropped. Mid-Atlantic reduced to Marginal Risk. Isaias surface low dissipated over West Virginia.
    • Active Flash Flood Warnings continue in southern Utah, including extensions for Zion National Park (West Central Kane / East Central Washington counties) and the Forsyth burn scar (Central Washington County), with observed flash flooding and considerable damage threat reported.
    • No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings remain in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has fully dissipated. Remnants of Rachel continue to support residual moisture in the Southwest/Great Basin. Hurricane Simon remains offshore Mexico and does not threaten U.S. land.
    • Preliminary tornado reports from Sunday afternoon across central and eastern North Carolina (including Candor, Clarendon, Atkinson, Fayetteville area, and near Raleigh) remain under NWS survey. The organized severe window is closed.

    Live Status

    As of late Sunday evening, October 11, 2026 (around 8:12 p.m. PDT / 11:12 p.m. EDT), the day has entered Quiet Pulse status. SPC holds no Slight or higher convective risk and lists no current watches. Residual Marginal Risk exists for isolated tornadoes near the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few more hours and isolated severe gusts in the Desert Southwest under leftover shear and moisture.

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has dissipated. Its surface low elongated into a trough over West Virginia and was absorbed. Residual rainfall of 1 to 3 inches remains possible overnight across portions of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic under a WPC Marginal Risk, but the heavy rain threat is decreasing. Earlier overnight totals of several inches produced flash flooding and landslides in western North Carolina; residual Flood Warnings persist in some elevated areas.

    In the Southwest and Great Basin, residual moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel supports a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. The highest residual risk is across western Arizona, with a broader Slight covering northwest Arizona into portions of the Great Basin. Active Flash Flood Warnings cover Zion National Park and the Forsyth burn scar in southern Utah, where thunderstorms have produced heavy rain and observed flash flooding with considerable damage threat. Vulnerable locations include burn scars, slot canyons, dry washes, and urban areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect across parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada.

    No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect for the U.S. coast or Gulf of Mexico. All prior tropical products for Isaias and Rachel have been discontinued or reduced to residual flood tracking by WPC.

    Pulse Table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this evening
    Mid-Atlantic coast / eastern NC-SE VAIsolated residual tornado, residual floodSPC Marginal (Slight closed, Watch 681 expired)Window largely closed; residual isolated this evening
    Southwest / Great Basin (S CA / S NV / NW AZ / SW UT)Heavy rain, flash flood, gusty windsWPC Slight excessive rainfall; active FFW in UTResidual live, Rachel remnants; Zion/Forsyth active
    Blue Ridge / Central Appalachians residualUpslope residual rain, flash flood, landslidesWPC Marginal excessive rainfallDecreasing; overnight heavy totals already on ground
    Tennessee Valley / Isaias residualDissipatedPost-tropical dissipatedSurface low absorbed; residual decreasing

    Rising Queries

    Trends unreachable this run.

    Storm Hubs

    Storm hub: Hurricane Isaias 2026 | Tropical Storm Rachel 2026. Dated entries link back to this desk.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and local storm reports, WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay, and nhc.noaa.gov for residual products.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.

  • Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning)

    Storm Updates: Southwest Flood Moderate, Quiet Severe Pulse — Monday, September 28, 2026 (Morning)

    Map of Arizona, southern Nevada, southwest Colorado, and western New Mexico marked for Monday's moderate flood risk
    Monday morning desk. Moderate flood on the Southwest and Four Corners. Not an NWS warning.

    This is a live Monday morning snapshot of U.S. local-storm activity as of Monday, September 28, 2026. Overnight into this morning, the organized severe desk stayed quiet. The Storm Prediction Center 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook has no severe thunderstorm areas forecast. No convective watches are valid. The Weather Prediction Center holds a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners as tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and remnants of Odalys lifts north into already wet ground.

    These are county- and ZIP-scale thunderstorms and flash-flood pulses, not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Polo is still a major hurricane approaching Baja California Sur and Sonora. Restoration exposure today is water first in the Southwest, then isolated wind and hail cleanup from last night’s High Plains and north Texas cells. Conditions change fast. Verify with the National Weather Service for the specific county or ZIP before you roll.

    What is live this morning

    SPC language at 0728 AM CDT: severe thunderstorm probability remains low on Monday. Isolated to scattered storms are still expected later over the northern High Plains from western Nebraska into the Dakotas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Those corridors do not carry unconditional severe probabilities on this outlook. The last issued convective watch was number 0674; nothing is live now.

    WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall, issued 0812 UTC Monday and valid 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, is the headline. A Moderate Risk covers portions of the Southwest and Four Corners. Guidance supports a widespread 1 to 3 inches across the region, with south- and west-facing slopes along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juans favored. Precipitable water is forecast 2 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal. Burn scars, rocky soils, and slot canyons locally raise the flood threat. The Moderate outline forks farther south in New Mexico toward the Lordsburg area and the Sacramento Mountains.

    A weakening cyclone near the southern New England coast still supports showers and occasional embedded thunder along the coast. Instability is weak. That is leftover nor’easter weather, not a new severe corridor.

    Hotspot 1 — Southwest and Four Corners flood Moderate

    This is today’s organized desk. Moisture from Polo and post-tropical Odalys is being drawn north ahead of a mid-level trough moving from the California Valleys toward the lower Colorado River Valley. Widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates should keep most storms disorganized, but rainfall rates on saturated soils do not need a supercell to fail a crossing.

    Counties and terrain to watch: Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in Arizona; western and southwestern New Mexico including burn-scar drainages near Lordsburg; the San Juan Mountains and adjacent southwest Colorado; southern Nevada valleys that take runoff from steep slopes. WPC notes the Moderate continues into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains.

    Restoration read: water first. Stage pumps, extractors, and sandbags on known flood ZIPs and burn-scar alluvial fans before the afternoon cores. Photograph crawlspaces and finished basements as soon as it is safe. Do not treat this as a wind event unless a local warning says otherwise.

    Hotspot 2 — Northern High Plains isolated storms

    SPC keeps general thunderstorms from western Nebraska north into North Dakota. A surface trough and modest 500–1500 J/kg CAPE later this afternoon could support isolated stronger cells. Uncertainty on location and intensity is why severe probabilities stayed off the map. A southerly low-level jet may keep elevated storms going tonight.

    That is the same family that produced last night’s Cherry County hail. Staff it as isolated hail and outflow, not a watch day.

    Hotspot 3 — Leftover Northeast coast and north Texas cleanup

    The coastal cyclone continues to weaken near southern New England. Showers and occasional thunder remain possible near the coast. Sunday’s High Wind Warnings on the Jersey Shore and Long Island are already off the morning board from yesterday’s afternoon desk. Treat remaining coastal work as leftover water and beach debris, not a new wind outbreak.

    North Texas had a short severe pulse last evening over Parker County. That is a just-hit ticket, not today’s outlook.

    Just hit

    SPC local storm reports for the 1200 UTC Sunday to 1159 UTC Monday window, all preliminary:

    • 2216 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 20 miles south of Merriman, Cherry County, Nebraska. Vehicle damage reported. (NWS North Platte)
    • 2330 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 2 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. (NWS Fort Worth)
    • 0032 UTC — 1.00-inch hail 24 miles north of Whitman, Cherry County, Nebraska. (NWS North Platte)
    • 1440 UTC Sunday — 66 mph gust 10 miles northwest of Okobojo Creek Recreation Area, Sully County, South Dakota. Mesonet. (NWS Aberdeen)
    • 2300 UTC — 60 mph gust 22 miles west-southwest of Roosevelt, Sutton County, Texas. West Texas Mesonet Sonora 23SE. (NWS San Angelo)
    • 2320 UTC — Unknown-speed wind 4 miles north-northwest of Willow Park, Parker County, Texas. Large tree limbs down and outdoor items blown around on FM 730. (NWS Fort Worth)

    No tornado reports were received in that window. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that fired Sunday evening over southwestern Cherry County, Nebraska, and northeastern Parker County, Texas, have expired.

    Pulse table

    RegionMain threatsSPC / NWS / WPC levelStatus this morning
    Southwest / Four CornersFlash flood, training heavy rain, burn-scar runoffWPC Moderate excessive rainfallLive outlook through Tuesday 12Z
    SE CA / southern NV / western AZNumerous showers and storms, isolated wet downburstGeneral thunder; no severe probsToday into evening
    Western NE into the DakotasIsolated strong storms, hail or gust possibleGeneral thunder; no severe probsLate afternoon–overnight
    Cherry County, NE / Parker County, TXQuarter hail, tree limbsExpired SVR / LSRsJust-hit cleanup
    Southern New England coastShowers, leftover coastal waterWeak cyclone; no severe areaFading
    Polo / OdalysMexico land and moisture feed, not CONUS landfallNHC Polo major hurricane near BajaMoisture into the Southwest

    What this means for restoration teams

    The national severe map is blank. That does not mean a quiet shop in Arizona, New Mexico, southwest Colorado, or southern Nevada. Moderate excessive-rainfall language on already wet soils is extraction, drying, and a 24–48 hour mold clock in finished space. Burn-scar fans fail first. Stage before the afternoon moisture surge, not after the first flash-flood warning.

    Cherry County and Willow Park are yesterday’s hail and limb tickets. Photograph vehicles and roofs in daylight if it is still safe. Sully County’s 66 mph mesonet gust and the Sutton County 60 mph gust are isolated wind, not a line.

    Polo is a Baja and Sonora hurricane desk plus a U.S. flood-moisture feed. Do not staff it as a California or Arizona landfalling hurricane.

    What this is not

    This is not a Slight or Enhanced severe day and not a U.S. mainland hurricane landfall. Work today, if it verifies, is flash flooding on the Four Corners Moderate and isolated High Plains cells. That is the local-storm pattern this desk should staff.

    Looking ahead

    WPC keeps Moderate excessive-rainfall language into Tuesday over parts of the Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and southern High Plains, then into the southern Plains midweek. SPC’s next Day 1 update is scheduled by 1630 UTC. Watch the afternoon Storm Tracker rather than assuming the blank severe map lasts past sunset.

    Sources and how to verify

    Primary sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Sep 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook; SPC Current Watches page (no watches valid); SPC local storm reports for 27/1200 UTC–28/1159 UTC; Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0812 UTC Mon Sep 28; National Hurricane Center advisories on Hurricane Polo and post-tropical Odalys; National Weather Service warning text compiled at weather.gov.

    Check weather.gov for the county warning, spc.noaa.gov for the outlook, watches, and LSRs, and WPC excessive rainfall for the flood overlay. Prior desk: Sunday afternoon Quiet Pulse, Northeast flood Slight.

    Informational only — not an official weather warning. Follow local authorities and the National Weather Service. Turn around, don’t drown.