Storm Updates: Mid-Atlantic Closed — Nov 12

Tropical: None · Severe: None · Flood: Marginal

What Changed

• SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 13 / 0637 PM CST Nov 12 2026 update by Leitman, valid 130100Z–131200Z) now states NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST. Severe probabilities removed from the Mid-Atlantic as earlier strong/severe convection weakened and moved offshore. Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight into early Friday.
• Compared with the morning Day 1 cycle (1300 UTC / 0648 AM CST, Marginal Risk across coastal Mid-Atlantic): the 1630 UTC and 2000 UTC updates elevated a core area to Slight Risk over parts of central/southern New Jersey and far southeastern Pennsylvania (approx. 5,600–6,900 sq mi). That Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 705 (issued 1750 UTC, expired 0000 UTC Nov 13) have now closed.
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (updated 1558 UTC / 1100 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026) continues a Marginal Risk from eastern Pennsylvania into Long Island. Narrow stripe of 1-3 inches possible along the I-95 corridor. No Moderate or higher. Residual Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect in parts of New Jersey into the evening.
• NHC: no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of America. Formation not expected next 7 days. Remnants of Pena in the Central Pacific (last advisory, 35 mph, no U.S. mainland or Gulf threat). No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings on the U.S. coast or Gulf.
• Preliminary SPC Local Storm Reports and local NWS products document at least one confirmed tornado (New Castle County DE near Christiana Hospital, radar and video confirmation), additional tornado activity in Burlington County NJ, hail up to 1.75 inches, and scattered wind damage across DE, NJ, PA and MD. Most convective warnings have expired with the watch.

Live Status

As of the afternoon desk on Thursday, November 12, 2026 (approximately 5:23 PM PST / 8:23 PM EST / 0123Z Nov 13), the primary severe window across the coastal Mid-Atlantic has closed. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 Convective Outlook removes all severe probabilities after earlier strong/severe convection weakened and moved offshore. Tornado Watch 705 expired at 0000Z. WPC maintains a Marginal excessive rainfall risk through 12Z Nov 13. Flash Flood Warnings remain active in southeastern Monmouth and northeastern Ocean Counties NJ until 10 PM EST, with reported flooding on NJ 35 and urban streets. No tropical threats to U.S. land. Residual flash flood potential may linger on saturated urban soils. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the Sierra Nevada ahead of Friday’s Pacific system, but that remains a secondary lane today.

Hotspots

Southeastern Pennsylvania / Philadelphia metro: Core of the earlier Slight Risk. Isolated supercells produced hail and flash flooding this afternoon across Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and adjacent counties. Urban density increased impact potential for vehicle/roof hail damage and street flooding. Multiple Flash Flood Warnings covered the I-76 corridor and surrounding areas earlier. Watch and severe probabilities now closed.

Central and southern New Jersey: Slight Risk and Tornado Watch 705 covered Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem and adjacent counties. Confirmed tornado in Burlington County. Hail reports up to 1.75 inches (including Ocean County). Residual Flash Flood Warning in effect for southeastern Monmouth and northeastern Ocean Counties until 10 PM EST with ongoing street and highway flooding. Coastal waters included earlier.

Northern Delaware / Wilmington area: New Castle County under Tornado Watch 705. Confirmed tornado touchdown near Christiana Hospital / Eastburn Heights with tree and structural damage. Hail to 1.5 inches and wind damage reported. Short-term window for additional storms has closed with the watch expiration and SPC probability removal.

Just-Hit / Ongoing

Confirmed tornadoes in New Castle County DE (near Christiana Hospital) and Burlington County NJ, with additional reports of tree and structural damage. Hail up to 1.75 inches across the corridor, including Ocean County NJ. Wind damage and trees down in multiple locations. Flash Flood Warnings active earlier across Queens NY, Burlington/Mercer/Monmouth NJ, Bucks/Montgomery/Philadelphia PA, and New Castle DE / Gloucester NJ corridors, with reported flooding on highways and local streets plus water rescues. Residual Flash Flood Warning remains for Monmouth/Ocean NJ until 10 PM EST. Most convective warnings have expired. Blizzard Warnings continue in northern Alaska but are outside the primary continental focus. High Surf and Coastal Flood Warnings persist on the West Coast but are not the dominant ticket today.

Pulse Table

Rising Queries

• tornado watch
• tornado warning New Jersey
• flash flood warning Delaware Valley
• hail Delaware Valley
• severe storms November 12

Restoration Read

Dominant near-term ticket is isolated severe hail and confirmed brief tornado damage across the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington corridor under the earlier Slight Risk and now-expired Tornado Watch 705. Expect vehicle and roof impacts from quarter-to-golf-ball size hail where supercells persisted, plus tree and power line issues from 60 mph gusts. Localized structural and tree damage from the confirmed tornadoes. Urban flash flooding on the Marginal ERO where cells trained along the warm front; residual FFWs document street and highway flooding. No widespread major structural damage anticipated given the small risk area and modest instability. Monitor for water intrusion in low-lying urban zones and debris on roads. Turn around, don’t drown. Residual West Coast coastal flooding and Alaska blizzard are secondary. Sierra Nevada winter storm is building for Friday but not yet the primary restoration ticket.

What This Is Not

This is not a Quiet Pulse for the full day. SPC held a Slight Risk with an active Tornado Watch and confirmed tornadoes earlier. Current Day 1 outlook is now None. It is not a high-end outbreak; the area is geographically small and instability was limited. No tropical cyclone threat exists for the U.S. coast or Gulf. WPC is only Marginal, not Moderate or higher. No named storm hub is required.

Looking Ahead One Day

Severe risk has diminished overnight as the low tracks offshore. Residual showers possible into Friday across the Northeast. Colder air arrives behind the system. No new Slight or higher risk drawn for Friday on current guidance. Flood residual may linger locally on already wet urban soils. No tropical development expected. Attention shifts to the Pacific system bringing heavy snow to the Sierra Nevada under Winter Storm Warnings Friday into Saturday.

Sources

• SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC Nov 13 2026): https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
• SPC Current Watches: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
• WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php
• NHC Active Tropical Cyclones: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
• NWS WWA summary: https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all
• SPC Today’s Storm Reports: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
• This morning’s desk: https://tygartmedia.com/quiet-pulse-2026-11-12-morning/

Disclaimer: Informational only — not an official warning. This is a summary of official public products from the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center as of approximately 5:23 PM PST on November 12, 2026. Always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings for your location. Turn around, don’t drown.